随着中秋佳节临近，酒水市场再度进入传统的销售冲刺阶段。 作为下半年最重要的消费节点之一，中秋国庆"双节"历来被酒业寄予厚望，往往能够贡献全年超过20% 的销售额。 然而，在表面热烈的营销造势之下，行业正面临高库存、动销慢与消费分化所带来的长期压力。今年中 秋，酒企与经销商在热战之余，更多了几分冷思考。 八月初起，各大酒企的"中秋战役"便已悄然打响。 线下商超中，茅台、五粮液、国窖1573等高端品牌礼盒被陈列于最醒目位置，而百元价位段的地产酒、 光瓶酒与新兴低度酒则组成辅助矩阵，试图覆盖自饮、宴席与礼品等多重场景。 线上阵地的竞争则更为激烈。 电商平台推出大规模补贴与限时秒杀，酒企也加码自有小程序和直播带货，强调"一键下单，极速配 送"。例如泸州老窖推出的中秋定制款"福禄黄葫芦"，在淘宝平台搜索量短期内迅速上升，反映出品牌 对礼赠市场的精准捕捉。 不难发现，今年酒企推出新品的节奏显著早于往年。茅台推出500ml×4瓶装飞天茅台，降低整箱购买门 槛，切入中小规模宴饮与家庭场景；古井贡酒与舍得酒业则推出低度产品，迎合年轻消费者与健康饮酒 趋势。无论是规格创新还是品类拓展，都显示出行业对当前消费疲软态势的主动应对。 ...

8 September 2025 | 8:25PM HKT Leaf Liu +852-3966-4169 | leaf.liu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Christina Liu +852-2978-6983 | christina.liu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Valerie Zhou +852-2978-0820 | valerie.zhou@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider t ...

Group 1 - The 27th China International Xihu Love Five Grains Liquid Rose Wedding will take place in Beijing on September 8, 2025, showcasing wedding culture through artistic performances and immersive experiences [1] - The theme of this year's wedding is "Chinese-Italian Love City, Composing Love Poems Together, Building a Harmonious Life," linking the cultural heritage of Hangzhou, China, and Verona, Italy, and inviting couples from both countries [3] - The event will feature a one-kilometer red carpet rose avenue at the West Lake, where couples will walk hand in hand, and will include a boat ride on the West Lake to celebrate love [3] Group 2 - Jiang Jia, Vice General Manager of Yibin Wuliangye Co., expressed the company's expectation that the Rose Wedding will serve as a sweet witness to the enduring love of couples in Beijing [4]

Group 1 - The 27th (2025) China International West Lake Rose Wedding Ceremony was held in Beijing with the theme "Singing the Love Song, Sharing a Harmonious Life" [1][3] - The event featured creative artistic performances and immersive interactive experiences to showcase the cultural connotation of the wedding ceremony [1][3] - The ceremony aims to connect the love culture of Hangzhou, China, and Verona, Italy, inviting international couples to celebrate their love in Hangzhou [3] Group 2 - Jiang Jia, Vice General Manager of Yibin Wuliangye Co., expressed the company's commitment to creating eternal promises for couples through the Rose Wedding Ceremony [3] - The event included traditional Chinese cultural elements, such as calligraphy and the performance of the Yue Opera, enhancing the romantic atmosphere [4] - A DIY area for traditional Chinese herbal sachets became a highlight, allowing guests to engage with cultural memories [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Wuliangye [2][6] Core Views - Wuliangye achieved revenue of 52.771 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.492 billion yuan, up 2.28% year-on-year. The Q2 revenue was 15.831 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 7.58% to 4.632 billion yuan [3] - The gross margin for liquor products was 82.20%, a decrease of 0.39% year-on-year, primarily due to increased market investment and lower pricing strategies for certain products [3] - The company has improved its cash flow, with a 12% increase in cash received from sales in Q2 and an 18.4% increase in operating cash flow [4] - Wuliangye is focusing on channel development, adding 7,990 new purchasing terminals and enhancing its market influence through various initiatives [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 12.301 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 70.01%, indicating strong shareholder returns [6] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, Wuliangye's liquor products saw a 4.6% increase in revenue, with a 12.7% increase in sales volume, while the average price per ton decreased by 7.2% [3] - The company’s sales expense ratio in Q2 was 18.88%, an increase of 1.54 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased promotional spending [4] - The forecast for 2025 indicates a net profit of 32.012 billion yuan, a 0.5% increase year-on-year, with an EPS of 8.25 yuan [6] - The total market capitalization of Wuliangye is approximately 487.18 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 14.12 times [7]

Core Insights - The "Sustainable Business Global Tour" 2025 was held in Geneva, Switzerland, featuring multiple events including the "Sustainable Brand Creation" international cooperation seminar and the signing of the "Sustainable Brand Creation Vision Geneva Initiative" by 24 Chinese companies [1][3] Group 1: Sustainable Development Initiatives - The initiative emphasizes the critical role of the business community in achieving the United Nations' 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, particularly in its final five years [3] - The "Sustainable Brand Creation" initiative aims for world-class companies to integrate sustainability into their business and brand value creation through practical measures such as strategic focus, technological innovation, and social responsibility [3][5] Group 2: Company Contributions - Wuliangye, as a representative of Chinese liquor, showcased its sustainable development strategies and shared its unique "Soil, Heat, Electricity, Water" circular system, which effectively reduces carbon footprints and enhances farmers' income [5] - The company aims to act as a practitioner of green development and long-termism, continuously creating sustainable brand practices [5][7] Group 3: Event Significance - The event provided a significant platform for global business exchanges and cooperation, highlighting Wuliangye's commitment to sustainable development and its contributions to the global sustainability agenda [7][9] - The "Sustainable Business Global Tour" 2025 is part of a broader initiative to engage the business sector in the UN's sustainable development goals, with participation from various international organizations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing significant challenges due to the impact of the alcohol ban, leading to declining production, sales, and profits across various companies [4][6][10]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Liquor consumption has decreased, with production falling nearly 6% after eight consecutive years of decline [5]. - The average price range for main consumer segments has shifted from 300-500 RMB to 100-300 RMB [6]. - The total profit for the industry has decreased by 10% compared to the same period last year, with over 100 companies shutting down [6]. Group 2: Impact of the Alcohol Ban - The alcohol ban has particularly affected high-end liquor sales, with sales in regions like Henan dropping by 50% during June and July [9][10]. - The ban has altered the underlying logic of the liquor industry, affecting over 10% of the national workforce and potentially impacting consumption worth hundreds of billions [10][11]. - The relationship between central and local governments is complex, with national policies like the alcohol ban reshaping the competitive landscape and local economies [11]. Group 3: Company Performance - Among 20 listed liquor companies, only 6 reported positive revenue growth in their mid-year reports [14]. - Major players like Moutai and Wuliangye are experiencing pressure, with Wuliangye's net profit declining by 7.58% and Shanxi Fenjiu by 13.5% in Q2 [15][17]. - The average net profit decline for many companies in Q2 is around 60%, with some companies like Shendao experiencing a staggering 62.66% drop [15][16]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Moutai's revenue from its flagship product grew by 10.99%, while its series liquor saw a decline of 6.53% [20]. - Wuliangye's sales volume increased by 12.7%, but the average price fell by 7.2%, indicating a reliance on volume to maintain revenue [25][28]. - The market for low-alcohol products is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 25% expected to reach 74 billion RMB by 2025 [38]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The alcohol ban has accelerated changes in consumer habits, with a notable decline in high-end dining and business-related alcohol consumption [34][35]. - Companies are adapting by introducing lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers, although the effectiveness of this strategy remains uncertain [39][40]. - The liquor industry is heavily reliant on local economies, with companies like Moutai contributing significantly to local tax revenues and economic stability [48][50].

Group 1 - The "Sustainable Business Global Tour" event held in Geneva focuses on creating sustainable businesses and brands, providing a high-level platform for global sustainable development dialogue [1][4] - Wuliangye, a leading Chinese liquor company, is designated as the official liquor for the "Sustainable Brand Vision" China Night 2025 and plays a significant role in advocating for sustainable development practices [3][4] - The event marks a critical period for the UN's 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, emphasizing the importance of the business sector in achieving sustainability goals [4] Group 2 - Wuliangye's chairman, Zeng Songqin, participated in the initiative's launch, highlighting the company's commitment to sustainable development and its role in sharing best practices globally [6][12] - The "Creating Sustainable Brands" initiative aims to integrate sustainability into business and brand value creation, reflecting a commitment to a sustainable future through innovation and practice [4][9] - Wuliangye emphasizes that sustainability is a collective effort among all enterprises, not just a singular initiative [8] Group 3 - Wuliangye is implementing a comprehensive approach to sustainability, focusing on ecological, low-carbon, and circular economy principles across its production and supply chain [9][10] - The company aims for a "zero-carbon" goal by establishing a circular economy system that redefines waste as a resource, significantly reducing carbon footprints and enhancing agricultural income [9][10] - Wuliangye's ecological initiatives include a purification system that exceeds emission standards and contributes to local water ecosystems, demonstrating its commitment to environmental protection [10][12] Group 4 - The participation of Wuliangye in the UN event serves as a showcase of its sustainable practices and a step towards global collaboration in sustainability [12] - Industry experts recognize Wuliangye's efforts in transforming sustainability into a competitive advantage, positioning the company towards becoming a world-class enterprise [12]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a dual drive of consumption recovery and structural upgrades, leading to a pronounced trend of "the strong getting stronger and increased differentiation" [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, 19 A-share listed liquor companies reported a total revenue of 235.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and a total net profit of 94.39 billion yuan, down 0.92% [2] - The top six liquor companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, accounted for 89.82% of the total revenue of A-share listed liquor companies, with a combined revenue of 211.25 billion yuan [2][3] - Kweichow Moutai achieved a main revenue of 89.39 billion yuan, while Wuliangye reported 52.77 billion yuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu reached 23.96 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market share of the top six liquor brands increased from 86.82% in 2022 to 89.82% in mid-2025, indicating a shift from the "80/20 rule" to the "90/10 rule" [4] - Kweichow Moutai's revenue share of the industry increased from 36.37% in 2022 to 38% in the first half of 2025, showcasing its strong brand moat and pricing power [4] - Shanxi Fenjiu has become a notable disruptor in the industry, achieving double-digit growth in revenue and net profit for eight consecutive years, increasing its market share from 7.68% in 2022 to 10.19% in the first half of 2025 [4] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Strategies - The liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment period characterized by policy adjustments, consumption changes, and intensified competition, where stability is deemed more important than growth [5] - Many liquor companies are enhancing promotional efforts, such as Shanxi Fenjiu's strategic branding initiatives through high-profile media appearances and cultural events [5] - The industry is shifting focus towards providing genuine value to consumers, particularly the younger generation, as blind expansion and price increases pose increasing risks [6] Group 4: Consumer Complaints - Consumer complaints in the liquor industry are primarily concentrated in three areas: product quality, marketing irregularities, and consumer experience [8] - Issues related to product quality include the prevalence of counterfeit high-end liquor and deceptive practices surrounding "vintage liquor" [8] - Marketing concerns involve false advertising in live-streaming sales and misleading pricing strategies during promotional events [8]

Group 1 - The stock prices of optical module companies have surged significantly, with New Ease rising 597% since April 8, and its stock price increasing 27 times over the past three years [1][3] - Zhongji Xuchuang's stock has increased by 465% since April 8, with a 18-fold increase over the last three years [1][3] - Tianfu Communication's stock has risen by 322% since April 8, and its stock price has increased 11 times in the past three years [1][3] Group 2 - The liquor sector has faced significant declines, with major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao averaging a 22% drop over the past three years [1][3] - A market debate arose regarding Zhongji Xuchuang's projected profit of 25 billion by 2027, with skepticism about the feasibility of such high profits for a component manufacturing company [3][4][6] - Analysts argue that the profit forecast is based on confirmed production capacity and the company's commitment to not lowering prices, leading to a projected net profit margin of around 30% [6]