Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, specifically highlighting the brands Moutai and Wuliangye as key players [2][33]. Core Insights - The recent decline in high-end liquor prices has raised concerns in the market, with the liquor sector experiencing a 7% drop in December. Moutai's price fell from 1575 yuan to around 1500 yuan, while Wuliangye's price decreased from 800-810 yuan to 780 yuan [8][11]. - Moutai is implementing measures to restore channel confidence, with prices rebounding to around 1600 yuan after a significant drop. The company plans to control supply to stabilize prices and support distributor profits [15][20]. - Wuliangye is enhancing subsidies and adjusting pricing strategies to support distributors, including a significant discount on its products to reduce financial pressure on channels [29][30]. - The report anticipates that the liquor industry will prioritize volume over price in the coming year, with sales performance being crucial for recovery [32][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand - The industry is facing a critical need for supply and demand rebalancing, with Moutai's price drop signaling significant market pressures. The report notes that the supply-demand mismatch has persisted, leading to a comprehensive imbalance [11][15]. Moutai's Strategy - Moutai is focusing on controlling supply to alleviate pressure on distributors, with plans to halt the release of unfulfilled quotas for 2025. The company aims to stabilize market order and ensure healthy operations [20][24]. - The report highlights that Moutai's pricing strategy is crucial for maintaining industry standards, with expectations of a gradual decline in performance metrics due to market conditions [28][29]. Wuliangye's Approach - Wuliangye is actively implementing multiple strategies to support channel profits, including significant discounts and promotional rewards for distributors. The company is also enhancing digital management to improve terminal control [29][30]. - The report emphasizes that Wuliangye's willingness to adapt and reduce prices is a positive step in addressing current market challenges [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests capitalizing on the pre-holiday recovery in the liquor market, recommending Moutai as a priority for investment due to its lower risk of performance decline. Other companies to watch include Gujing and Wuliangye, which are expected to confirm performance bottoms and drive growth through market share [33].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The recent Politburo meeting emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, marking a shift towards a long-term strategy for high-quality development and countering external uncertainties. The focus is on "supply-demand coordinated reform" to create new demand through "new quality productivity" and to unleash consumption potential through a "unified market" and "livelihood guarantees" [5][15]. - Moutai's pricing strategy is being closely monitored, with recent adjustments indicating a short-term control of supply and a mid-term structural adjustment. The price of Moutai has recently increased by 100 yuan to 1600 yuan, reflecting market pressures and strategic responses [6][17]. - The "Three Squirrels" brand is transitioning from a snack brand to a community hard discount retail model, demonstrating strong competitiveness in areas with limited hard discount presence. The store emphasizes fresh and made-to-order products, with a strict discounting strategy to manage inventory effectively [7][19][20]. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector index (801120.SL) experienced a decline of 1.63% this week, ranking 22nd among 30 primary industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.55 percentage points. The current dynamic PE ratio for the industry is 21.53 [8][28]. - All ten sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry reported declines, with the lowest drop in the dairy sector at -1.05%. Notably, 16 stocks in the sector saw gains, with the top performers being Yanjinpuzi (+5.11%) and Kuaijishan (+4.85%) [29][30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The recent Politburo meeting emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, marking a shift towards a long-term strategy for high-quality development through supply-demand coordination [5][15] - Moutai's pricing strategy is being adjusted to control supply and enhance channel profitability, with recent price increases observed [6][17] - Three Squirrels is transitioning from a snack brand to a community hard discount retail model, demonstrating strong competitiveness in underdeveloped markets [7][19] Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector index (801120.SL) experienced a decline of -1.63% this week, ranking 22nd among 30 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.55 percentage points [8][28] - All ten sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry reported declines, with the lowest drop in the dairy sector at -1.05% [29] Key Company Announcements - Moutai announced a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share, totaling approximately 30 billion yuan [37] - Wuliangye adjusted its ex-factory price to 900 yuan, aiming to alleviate channel pressure and stimulate sales [18] Important News - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued differentiated financial support plans for five major consumption areas, including durable goods and service consumption [16] - Budweiser plans to acquire a majority stake in the US ready-to-drink beverage brand BeatBox for approximately 4.9 billion USD [39]

Market Review - The food and beverage sector's ETFs showed significant divergence in November, with the wine ETF (512690.SH) and consumer ETF (159928.SZ) declining by -0.85% and -0.24% respectively, while the Hang Seng Consumer ETF (513970.SH) and another Hang Seng Consumer ETF (159699.SZ) increased by +1.78% and +1.45% respectively [2][12] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.67% in November, while the food and beverage sector rose by 0.84%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 2.52 percentage points [3][22] - The retail sales growth in October was 2.90%, marking a decline since May, with the food and beverage sector showing signs of recovery in certain sub-segments [4][32] Industry Dynamics - The white wine sector is currently in a downturn, with prices continuing to decline due to increased e-commerce platform subsidies and weak channel confidence, indicating a need for careful observation of inventory and pricing trends as the market approaches the 2026 Spring Festival [4][36] - The beer sector is also entering a slow season, with a focus on raw material pricing and new channel developments that could impact product structure [4][35] - The snack sector is highlighted as having strong supply chains that can optimize products and resonate with channels, making it a key area for potential growth [4][35] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" outlook, emphasizing the food and beverage sector's importance in domestic demand recovery, supported by improving policy expectations [5][7] - Specific ETFs such as the Hang Seng Consumer ETF (159699.SZ) and the wine ETF (512690.SH) are recommended for capturing new consumption trends and potential rebounds in the sector [7][5] Sub-sector Performance - The processed food sub-sector saw the highest increase in November at +9.11%, while the soft drink sub-sector experienced the largest decline at -4.07% [25][22] - Year-to-date, the health products sub-sector has shown the highest growth at +10.80%, while the beer sub-sector has the largest decline at -11.18% [25][22] Macro Data Tracking - Retail sales in urban areas showed a year-on-year growth of 2.70% in October, while rural areas saw a growth of 4.10%, indicating a divergence in consumer spending trends [32][33] - The consumer confidence index fell to 89.40 in October, reflecting a decrease in consumer sentiment [33][34]

从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1426.00元/股，上涨0.38%；五粮液收盘价达112.45元/股，上涨0.76%； 山西汾酒收盘价达179.56元/股，下跌0.30%；泸州老窖收盘价达122.81元/股，下跌0.14%；洋河股份收 盘价达62.32元/股，下跌0.21%。 招商证券在其研报中指出，对比上轮周期，12Q3-13Q3渠道煎熬期期间报表仍在高歌猛进，但申万白酒 股价腰斩，跑输大盘。13Q2-14Q4企业煎熬期酒企业绩出现大幅下滑，股价先跌后涨，在业绩二阶导转 正后，开始触底回升，期间整体微涨。本轮企业煎熬期行业股价持续调整，但当下进程过半，当业绩二 阶导转正后，股价有望触底回升。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）12月15日尾盘，三大指数集体下跌，沪指3867.92点下跌0.55%。白 酒板块2206.51点收盘上涨0.95%，其中16只白酒股上涨。 ...

Consumption Overview - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached approximately 4.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, down from 2.9% in the previous month[8] - Retail sales of goods amounted to about 3.8 trillion yuan, growing by 1.0% year-on-year, while catering sales reached 605.7 billion yuan, up 3.2% year-on-year[8] - Online retail sales were 1.7 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, although the proportion of online sales increased by 5.4 percentage points month-on-month[8] Industry Performance - The retail sales of limited enterprises in November were 1.6 trillion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year, compared to a growth of 1.4% in the previous month[14] - Notable declines in government-subsidized categories included home appliances down 19.4% year-on-year, while communication equipment rose by 21%[15] - The film industry saw a significant boost, with November box office revenue reaching 35.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89%[19] CPI and Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, a rise of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[30] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable at a year-on-year growth of 1.2%[30] - Food prices contributed to CPI improvement, with food CPI rising by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing a decline of 2.9% in the previous month[30] Market Trends and Outlook - The overall performance of the consumption sector has lagged behind the market, influenced by changing market preferences[50] - Despite the slowdown in retail sales growth, a positive outlook remains for December, with an expected annual growth rate of around 4% for retail sales[51] - The central economic work conference emphasizes domestic consumption, indicating potential support for consumer spending in the upcoming year[51]

宜宾的冬日，空气中开始弥漫着熟悉的暖意。这份暖意，源自一座城市与一场年度盛事的深情相约—— 五粮液第二十九届12·18共识共建共享大会（以下简称"12·18"大会）即将启幕。新形势、新机遇、新征 程。届时，上千名五粮液合作伙伴、投资者和媒体代表将齐聚一堂，共话和美文化内涵，共叙伙伴深厚 情谊，共绘产业未来蓝图。 漫步宜宾街头，"12·18"大会将至的氛围愈发浓郁。从五粮液机场到宜宾西站，一幅幅五粮液主题装置 错落铺展，五粮液"十里酒城"也悄然换上迎宾盛装；穿梭街巷的出租车上，"欢迎莅临12·18"的醒目车 贴成为城市里流动的迎宾符号；主干道两侧，焕新的道旗整齐列队、绵延伸展，无声传递着东道主的热 忱与期许；合江门广场的LED大屏上，主题宣传片循环流转，映照得江水流光溢彩，将和美温情的氛围 传递给江畔来客；五粮液园区内，"12·18欢迎回家"展牌树立，盛情融入每一处细节。 历经29年沉淀，五粮液"12·18"大会已不只是一场行业盛会，而是由一系列内涵丰富、层次多元的活动 共同组成的深情奔赴——关于传承、匠心、情谊与未来。 ——在"文明的温度活态的力量——中国酒业遗产守护与开拓暨五粮液古窖泥捐赠中国国家博物馆20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term decline in Chinese liquor consumption, particularly in the context of the aging population and changing consumer demographics, emphasizing the need for high-end liquor producers to adapt their strategies to capture profits in a shrinking market [6][20][41]. Group 1: Market Trends - The slowdown in Chinese liquor consumption has been ongoing for over a decade, with national liquor sales dropping by at least 50% [10][11]. - The global whiskey market, as a reference, has seen sales stagnate around 2.8 billion liters for the past ten years, struggling to recover post-pandemic [8]. - The aging population in developed societies is leading to a decline in liquor consumption among older demographics, while the younger consumer base is shrinking due to low birth rates [16][19]. Group 2: High-End Liquor Performance - Despite the overall decline in liquor sales, high-end brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao have seen their sales increase by over 200% in the past decade, reaching 100,000 tons [26]. - The profits of the top six Chinese liquor companies surged from 31 billion in 2015 to 160.7 billion in 2024, with their revenue share rising from 15.7% to 48.1% [27]. - High-end whiskey brands have similarly experienced growth, with revenue contributions from high-end segments increasing from 33% to around 50% [27]. Group 3: Consumer Demographics - Young consumers are increasingly important for the liquor market, with Diageo reporting that young consumers contribute 48% of high-end liquor revenue, compared to 35% across the entire liquor market [31]. - The share of young women in the whiskey market has grown from 15% in 2019 to 35% in 2024, indicating a shift in consumer demographics [31]. - In contrast, the share of young consumers in Chinese liquor has declined from 25% in 2015 to just 13% today, highlighting a significant demographic challenge for brands like Moutai [36]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - International liquor giants have proactively targeted younger consumers to mitigate the risks associated with an aging customer base, while Chinese liquor brands have been slower to adapt [30][34]. - The article suggests that Chinese liquor companies need to embrace high-end positioning and innovate to attract younger consumers, as evidenced by the financial strategies of companies like Wuliangye, which recently announced a 10 billion dividend [43]. - The long-term solution for Chinese high-end liquor brands may involve financial engineering, such as accelerated dividends and share buybacks, to enhance shareholder value amidst declining consumer engagement [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][10]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in consumer scenarios, with a stable price expectation for Moutai [1][3]. - The sector is entering a left-side layout phase, with high-quality companies expected to gain greater growth potential [2][10]. - The report highlights the differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcohol [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector experienced a cumulative decline of 1.52% this week, with A-shares down 1.63% and H-shares up 0.07% [1]. - The top five gainers in the food and beverage sector this week were Yanjinpuzi (5.11%), Huikaishan (4.85%), New Dairy (3.22%), Chenguang Biological (3.09%), and Anji Food (3.08%) [1]. 2. Alcohol Sector - In the liquor segment, the report recommends focusing on leading companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Yingjia Gongjiu, while also monitoring the reform pace of Wuliangye and Yanghe [2][10]. - The report notes that the current market is in a left-side layout phase, with positive signals expected from both demand and supply sides [10]. 3. Beverage Sector - The beverage industry is experiencing a sustained boom, with leading companies significantly outperforming the market [14]. - Recommendations include Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are accelerating their national and platform expansion [14]. 4. Food Sector - The snack segment is advised to focus on strong alpha stocks, particularly in the konjac snack category, where leading companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi show strong competitive advantages [11][12]. - The restaurant supply chain is showing signs of stabilization, with recommendations for leading companies like Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring [12]. 5. Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Nongfu Spring, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are rated as "Outperform the Market" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 and 2026 [4][10]. - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts for these companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4][15].

Market Overview - On December 15, the A-share market saw all three major indices decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.71%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.29% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.18 trillion yuan, a decrease of 529 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector experienced a broad rally, particularly in the insurance segment, which rose over 4% [2] - Notable individual stock performances included China Ping An up nearly 5%, China Pacific Insurance up 4%, and New China Life and China Life both up over 2% [4][5] - Several brokerage stocks also saw gains, with Huatai Securities and Dongfang Securities rising over 3% [6][7] Consumer Sector Activity - The consumer sector showed strong performance, with food and beverage stocks, as well as retail, experiencing significant gains [9] - A surge in individual stocks was noted, with companies like Huanlejia and Huangshi Group hitting the daily limit up [9][10] - The Ministry of Commerce and other regulatory bodies announced new policies aimed at boosting consumption, which contributed to the positive sentiment in the consumer sector [10] Alcohol Industry Insights - The liquor sector rebounded, with Kweichow Moutai rising 0.49% to a market value of 1.7878 trillion yuan [11][12] - Moutai's recent policy to control supply has led to a significant increase in wholesale prices for its products [11] Aerospace and Technology Sector - The aerospace sector saw a notable increase, with stocks like Aerospace Electromechanical and Aerospace Technology rising significantly [13][14] - Aerospace Electromechanical achieved a 10% increase, marking a strong performance in the sector [14]