Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance is in line with expectations, with a projected net profit of 1.45-1.65 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.8%-61.4% [7] - The report highlights that the increase in natural gas prices in the U.S. has led to a rise in ethane prices, which has narrowed the C2 price spread [7] - The company is expected to benefit from new production capacities in 2025, including 40,000 tons of EAA and 160,000 tons of high molecular latex, which will enhance revenue growth [7] - The report projects significant profit growth for the C3 segment due to improved market conditions and new capacity contributions [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 41.487 billion yuan in 2023 to 85.740 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.1% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 4.789 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.495 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 25.2% [6] - The report anticipates a steady improvement in gross margin, with projections of 19.8% in 2023 and 22.8% in 2027 [6]

Group 1: Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism has successfully created a "cultural IP + tourism + technology" full industry chain layout through asset restructuring and strategic transformation, promoting deep integration and innovation in the cultural tourism industry [2][11] - The company faced challenges in its animation business from 2019 to 2020, resulting in a 45.02% revenue decline in 2020. However, it leveraged its rich animation IP resources to achieve a strategic transformation and enhance profitability, with 2023 revenue reaching 722 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.81% [2][11] - The company has expanded its tourism assets across regions such as "Daxiangxi," "Dahuangshan," "Dachengyu," and "Danangling," forming a national chain of scenic spots and enhancing brand value through diversified offerings [3][11] Group 2: Lexin Technology - Lexin Technology is a small but robust IoT chip design manufacturer with a stable operating team and a concentrated shareholding structure, which enhances team motivation and operational stability [4][11] - The company has established a competitive advantage by developing low-power, high-performance chips based on the open-source RISC-V architecture, which better meets the needs of AI devices at the edge [4][12] - Lexin's ecosystem includes a rich developer community of over 3 million global developers, supporting mainstream IoT applications and creating a platform effect that drives growth [12] Group 3: Tonghua Jinma - Tonghua Jinma has shifted from relying on mergers and acquisitions to innovation-driven high-quality development, focusing on R&D breakthroughs and asset optimization [17][19] - The company is advancing a new drug for Alzheimer's treatment, with a projected peak sales potential of around 7 billion yuan, addressing a significant market need for new therapies [17][19] - The company has a target market capitalization of 22.2 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 26% from its current market value, with a "buy" rating assigned [19] Group 4: China Duty Free Group - China Duty Free Group reported a 16.38% decline in revenue for 2024, with net profit down 36.4%, reflecting challenges in the duty-free market [21] - The company is expanding its city duty-free store projects in response to policy changes, aiming to enhance its market presence [21][24] - Despite the challenges, the company is focusing on digital transformation and member engagement to improve customer experience and retention [24]

【投资要点】 考虑到未来公司各业务产能投放逐步落地，C3 价差安全边际较高、C2 业务有望受益于成本优势及未来 产能增量。我们预计2025-2027 年公司营业收入分别为517.39 亿元、621.13 亿元和730.40 亿元；归母净 利润分别为71.46亿元、85.04 亿元和105.54 亿元，对应EPS 分别为2.12 元、2.52 元和3.13元，对应PE 分 别为10.64 倍、8.94 倍和7.20 倍（以2025 年3 月28 日收盘价为基准），首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 四季度丁辛醇装置投产、丙烯酸价差修复，公司利润进一步增加。公司于24 年7 月实现了年产80 万吨 多碳醇项目一次开车成功，采用上游丙烯以及副产的氢气为原料，真正形成了丙烯酸及酯上下游完整的 产业链闭环，打开公司利润空间。此外，丙烯酸价差初显修复趋势，四季度丙烯-丙烯酸价差环比提升 456 元/吨，2025 年年初至今，价差均值再次提升约612 元/吨，盈利优势持续扩大。 储备项目丰富，α-烯烃综合利用项目有望带来业绩增量。连云港石化自2021 年建成以来，持续平稳运 行，2026-2027 年，α-烯烃综合利用高端新材料 ...

Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 is estimated at 1,450 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.79% compared to 1,022.62 million CNY in the same period last year[3] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be 1,512.01 million CNY, up 42.23% from 1,063.05 million CNY year-on-year[3] - Basic earnings per share for Q1 2025 are expected to be 0.43 CNY, compared to 0.30 CNY in the same period last year[3] Growth Strategies - The company attributes its performance growth to effective management and technological innovation, leading to improved product quality and market strategies[5] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence and enhancing international cooperation to maximize benefits along the industrial chain[5] Financial Reporting - The financial data presented is a preliminary estimate and will be detailed in the Q1 2025 report[6] Investment Awareness - The company emphasizes the importance of prudent investment decisions and awareness of investment risks[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 22.57 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [2][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders in Q4 2024, with a total revenue of RMB 456.48 billion for the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.03%. The net profit for the year was RMB 60.72 billion, up 26.77% year-on-year [4][10]. - The company's performance slightly exceeded expectations for 2024, driven by enhanced advantages in light hydrocarbon integration [4][6]. - The report highlights the company's strong competitive position in the C3 industry, with successful project launches and an increase in high-value product exports [9][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 456.48 billion, with a net profit of RMB 60.72 billion, marking a 26.77% increase from the previous year [10]. - The fourth quarter alone saw revenues of RMB 133.73 billion, a 26.10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 23.79 billion, up 70.47% year-on-year [11]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 was RMB 12.26 billion, with projections for 2025-2027 showing continued growth in net profit and earnings per share [6][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects net profits of RMB 70.13 billion, RMB 95.67 billion, and RMB 114.35 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of RMB 2.08, RMB 2.84, and RMB 3.39 [6][12]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 10.8x, 7.9x, and 6.6x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 28.91 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 456.48 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.03%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 60.72 billion CNY, up 26.77% year-on-year [6][7]. - The C2 industry chain is experiencing improved profitability, driven by a stabilization in the global natural gas supply-demand balance and a decrease in ethane prices, which are expected to support the company's growth trajectory [6][7]. - The company has successfully launched a new 100,000 tons/year ethanolamine facility and achieved a successful first run of an 800,000 tons/year multi-carbon alcohol project, enhancing its product portfolio and cost efficiency [6][7]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a gross margin of 23.57% and a net margin of 13.28% in 2024, both showing improvements of 3.73 and 1.75 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [6][7]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 70.96 billion CNY, 96.73 billion CNY, and 111.12 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.11 CNY, 2.87 CNY, and 3.30 CNY [6][7]. - The company’s PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 10x, 8x, and 7x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [6][7].

未来几年，我们预计公司业绩将在项目投产的推动下获得持续快速增长。 结合近期市场情况，我们调整了公司主要产品与原料价格，及期间费率假设。我们调整公司2025-2026 年每股收益EPS 预测为2.18、2.85 元（原预测2.01、2.13元），并添加2027 年EPS 预测为3.25 元。按照 可比公司25 年平均14 倍PE，对应目标价为30.52 元（原目标价22.72 元），维持买入评级。 风险提示 业绩稳健增长：公司2024 年业绩表现亮眼，全年实现营业收入456.5 亿元，同比增长10.0%，归母净利 润60.7 亿元，同比增长26.8%。单四季度营收133.7 亿元，同比增长41.7%，归母净利润23.8 亿元，同比 增长75.1%，增速环比进一步加快。在上半年连云港基地大检修的情况下，全年仍实现业绩显著增长， 主要得益于新项目投产及原料价格下行带来的盈利能力提升。 公司发展多点开花：1）新材料新能源一体化项目投产，80 万吨多碳醇项目顺利落地，推动丙烯酸产业 链闭环，巩固行业龙头地位；2）高端材料国产化突破，茂金属聚乙烯、POE 等产品研发取得进展，进 口替代空间广阔；3）全球化布局深化，成立卫 ...

买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：张伟保 | S1050523110001 | | --- | --- | | zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：覃前 | S1050124070019 | | qinqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-03-26 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 21.62 | | 总市值（亿元） | 728 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3369 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3366 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 14.75-22.11 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 397.73 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 卫星化学 沪深300 2025 年 03 月 27 日 究 报 告 主要产品产销量实现增长，轻烃项目投产助力公 司 2024 年业绩增长 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《卫星化学（002648）：Q3 公司 盈利能力改善，新材料打开成长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth in 2024, driven by increased production and sales of chemical products and new materials, with a projected revenue of 456.48 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.03% [3][4]. - The company successfully launched an 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project, enhancing its market influence in the acrylic acid industry and creating a closed-loop industrial chain [4]. - The company is increasing its R&D investment to overcome key material technology challenges, with R&D expenses rising by 7.69% year-on-year [5]. - The establishment of a 100,000-ton ethanolamine facility and the acceleration of new acrylic acid production capacity in Pinghu and Jiaxing are part of the company's strategy to enhance its product offerings [6]. - The company forecasts significant profit growth, with net profits expected to reach 69.47 billion yuan in 2025, 89.63 billion yuan in 2026, and 114.28 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 10.5, 8.1, and 6.4 respectively [8][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 456.48 billion yuan and a net profit of 60.72 billion yuan, with quarterly performance showing a 41.69% year-on-year increase in Q4 revenue [3][4]. - The company’s chemical and new materials production reached 7.33 million tons, with sales of 7.35 million tons, marking increases of 15.18% and 15.83% year-on-year respectively [4]. R&D and Production Capacity - The company is focusing on increasing R&D investment to drive innovation and reduce reliance on imports, with significant advancements in high-end materials [5]. - The completion of the ethanolamine facility and the ongoing development of new acrylic acid capacities are expected to enhance the company's product matrix and value chain [6]. Profit Forecast - The company anticipates robust profit growth, with net profits projected to grow at rates of 14.4%, 29.0%, and 27.5% from 2025 to 2027 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [1][9] Core Views - The company has enhanced its integrated supply chain advantages through new capacity and continuous R&D investment [2] - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 45.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.03%, and a net profit of 6.072 billion yuan, up 26.77% year-on-year [3] - The company’s sales gross margin and net margin improved to 23.57% and 13.28%, respectively, reflecting quality enhancement and product differentiation [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue from functional chemicals, polymer materials, and new energy materials reached 21.707 billion, 11.987 billion, and 0.841 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.96%, 0.60%, and 80.77% respectively [5] - The company’s R&D investment in 2024 was 1.75 billion yuan, a 7.7% increase, with a R&D expense ratio of 3.8% [7] - The company’s projected EPS for 2025-2027 are 2.19, 2.45, and 2.66 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [8][9] Capacity and Production - The company has established a complete industrial chain for acrylic acid and esters, enhancing its market influence [6] - New production capacities are being steadily deployed, including a 100,000-ton ethanolamine facility and an 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project [6][7] Market Data - As of March 27, the closing price was 22.21 yuan, with a market capitalization of 74.818 billion yuan [5][6]