Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of Li Xiang's vision for Li Auto, emphasizing the transition from a traditional automotive company to an artificial intelligence (AI) company, driven by the belief in the transformative potential of AI and autonomous driving [1][2]. Motivation - Li Xiang considers founding Autohome as his biggest mistake, aiming for a venture at least ten times larger than it [1]. - The belief in the feasibility of autonomous driving and the industry's transformative phase motivated the establishment of Li Auto [1]. Timeline of Developments - In September 2022, Li Auto internally defined itself as an AI company [2]. - On January 28, 2023, Li Xiang officially announced the company's identity as an AI company [2]. - By March 2023, discussions around AI began, although initial understanding of concepts like pretraining and finetuning was limited [2]. - By December 2024, Li Xiang articulated five key judgments regarding AI's role and potential, emphasizing the importance of foundational models [2][3]. Key Judgments - Judgment 1: Li Xiang believes in OpenAI's five stages of AI, asserting that AI will democratize knowledge and capabilities [2]. - Judgment 2: The foundational model is seen as the operating system of the AI era, crucial for developing super products [2]. - Judgment 3: Current efforts are aimed at achieving Level 3 (L3) autonomous driving and securing a ticket to Level 4 (L4) [2][3]. - Judgment 4: The integration of large language models with autonomous driving will create a new entity termed VLA [3]. - Judgment 5: Li Auto aims to produce a car without a steering wheel within three years, contingent on the VLA foundational model and sufficient resources [3]. Technical Insights - The design and training of the VLA foundational model focus on 3D spatial understanding and reasoning capabilities [5][6]. - Sparse modeling techniques are employed to enhance efficiency without significantly increasing computational load [7]. - The model incorporates future frame prediction and dense depth prediction tasks to mimic human thought processes [8]. - The use of diffusion techniques allows for real-time trajectory generation and enhances the model's ability to predict complex traffic scenarios [10]. Reinforcement Learning - The company aims to surpass human driving capabilities through reinforcement learning, addressing previous limitations in model training and interaction environments [11]. Future Directions - Li Auto is actively developing various models and frameworks to enhance its autonomous driving capabilities, including the introduction of new methodologies for video generation and scene reconstruction [12][13].

Macro Overview - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding China's holiday economy, with moderate growth in consumption during the National Day holiday. Key trends include strong performance in green, smart, and experiential consumption [2][4] - Despite recent relaxations in real estate policies in first-tier cities, the real estate market remains weak, with a significant year-on-year decline in new and second-hand housing sales [3][6] - The report anticipates that core CPI and PPI growth will rebound, alleviating deflationary pressures, with liquidity conditions expected to remain loose for at least the next two quarters [2][7][8] Internet Sector - The online travel agency (OTA) sector shows resilience, with keywords "quality" and "long-distance travel" indicating strong demand. Long-distance travel bookings on Ctrip increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year [28][30] - During the holiday, Alibaba's Fliggy reported a 14.6% year-on-year increase in average transaction value, while Tongcheng Travel noted nearly 100% growth in outbound group travel bookings [28][31] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Ctrip (TCOM US) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) based on these positive trends [28] Consumer Discretionary - The report expresses a cautious outlook for retail sales growth during the 2025 National Day holiday, attributing potential risks to high base effects from 2024, lack of government subsidies, and ongoing macroeconomic pressures [32][35] - The report highlights a preference for consumer downgrade themes and high-dividend stocks, with concerns over profit margin pressures due to increased competition and discounting [32][35] Automotive Sector - The report notes a significant divergence in sales during the National Day holiday, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) outperforming traditional fuel vehicles. The introduction of popular NEV models is expected to drive order growth [6][32] - The forecast for national passenger vehicle retail and wholesale sales in 2025 has been slightly raised, reflecting better-than-expected sales in Q3 and potential pre-purchase demand for NEVs [6][32] Real Estate Sector - The report indicates that the effectiveness of real estate policies is diminishing, with a notable decline in sales volume for new and second-hand homes during the holiday period [3][6] - The report anticipates that further easing measures may be necessary to stimulate housing demand, as sales data remains weak despite policy support [3][6] Selected Stocks - The report identifies several preferred stocks, including Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US), Guoquan (2517 HK), Green Tea Group (6831 HK), Jiumaojiu (9922 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK), Bosideng (3998 HK), and JS Global Life (1691 HK) [33][41]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Li Auto has shown significant growth in vehicle deliveries and orders, indicating a strong market position in the high-end SUV segment [1][2] Group 2 - In the week of September 29 to October 5, 2025, Li Auto's sales reached 5,700 units [1] - Li Auto received over 23,000 new orders in the previous week [2] - In September 2025, Li Auto delivered 33,951 vehicles, a 19% increase from August's 28,529 units [2] - The total deliveries for the third quarter of 2025 reached 93,211 units [2] - As of September 30, 2025, Li Auto's cumulative delivery volume surpassed 1.43 million units, totaling 1,431,021 vehicles [2] - Li Auto maintains a strong position in the SUV market priced above 200,000 yuan, surpassing Tesla in cumulative sales in this segment this year [2] - The Li MEGA model achieved the highest sales in the market for pure electric vehicles and MPVs priced above 500,000 yuan during the third quarter [2]

Industry Information - National Grid will explore issuing highway charging coupons during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays to guide users to avoid long-duration trickle charging [9] - CATL plans to build 100 chocolate battery swap stations in Hainan over the next three years, significantly enhancing the coverage of battery swap networks across the island [10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will further deepen cooperation in the automotive industry, supporting collaboration in capital, technology, management, and talent [10] - The electric vehicle and battery industry has become a new hotspot for cooperation between China and Nordic countries, with trade between China and the five Nordic countries reaching $53.17 billion in 2024, an increase of 8.5% [11] - The World New Energy Vehicle Development Organization has been established to promote the green and intelligent transformation of the automotive industry [12] - China's fuel cell vehicle demonstration scale has exceeded 20,000 units, with 200 hydrogen stations built, marking the initial commercialization of fuel cell vehicles [13] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in 2025, the charging volume for new energy vehicles reached a historical high, with a 51.33% year-on-year increase in charging volume on highways [20] Policy Information - Shenzhen is soliciting opinions on a work plan to promote stable growth in the new energy vehicle industry by 2025 [23] - Chengdu has issued implementation measures for central energy-saving and emission reduction subsidy funds for charging infrastructure [27] - Hebei's Cangzhou has released a three-year action plan for public charging infrastructure construction [30] - Gansu's Lanzhou has published a plan for the construction of new energy vehicle charging infrastructure from 2023 to 2025 [31] - Hangzhou has announced the suspension of the automobile replacement subsidy policy starting from October 9, 2025 [33] - Shanxi has suspended the automobile replacement and electric bicycle trade-in subsidies starting from October 9, 2025 [35] - Hainan has also suspended the automobile replacement subsidy policy starting from October 6, 2025 [37] Company Information - NIO has achieved battery swap coverage in over 1,200 districts and counties across multiple provinces [39] - Xiaomi's charging map now covers over 1.5 million charging piles, including 120,000 supercharging piles [39] - Seres has completed the payment for the acquisition of a 10% stake in Shenzhen Yiwang Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. from Huawei, totaling 11.5 billion yuan [40] - Xiaomi has opened 32 new stores in September, bringing the total to 402 stores across 119 cities [40] - Seres' stock price has surged over 8%, reaching a market capitalization of 280 billion yuan, driven by strong sales of its models [40] - Beijing Hyundai has named its first pure electric platform SUV "EO Yiou" [40] - XPeng Motors has signed strategic cooperation agreements with leading dealers in Morocco and Tunisia, expanding its presence in Africa [40] - Li Auto has launched a "safety net" plan for users affected by the upcoming changes in the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy [40] - Great Wall Motors plans to unveil its first supercar by the end of 2026 [40]

Group 1 - Xiaopeng Motors announced the replacement of Li Liyun as head of the Autonomous Driving Center, with Liu Xianming taking over the position, while Li remains employed [1] - Liu Xianming has a strong background in machine learning and computer vision, having previously worked at Facebook and Cruise, and will lead the team to accelerate the application of the physical world base model in AI automotive [1] - NIO is also restructuring its autonomous driving department, with several key personnel leaving, including the head of the AI platform and the world model leader [2][3] Group 2 - NIO's restructuring aims to enhance the absorption of general AI technologies and improve the delivery of intelligent driving experiences through a new organizational model [2] - The new structure at NIO will facilitate the development and delivery of the World Model 2.0 version, which is expected to be launched across multiple platforms by early next year [2] - Li Auto has also restructured its autonomous driving department into 11 sub-departments to achieve faster and higher-quality technological breakthroughs [3] Group 3 - The integration of large models into the automotive industry is reshaping industry rules, with Xiaopeng Motors emphasizing the need for talent skilled in AI tools [4] - The rapid evolution of technology routes in intelligent driving necessitates flexible organizational structures that can adapt to new research and development rhythms [5] - The adjustments made by these companies are directly related to their strategic shifts in autonomous driving technology, with Li Auto focusing on the VLA model as its next-generation solution [5][6]

这一销售高峰与9月以来的"新车潮"密切相关。 据21世纪经济报道记者不完全统计，仅9月22 日至28日，国内车市就有18款新车上市或亮相，包括理想i6、问界M7、尚界H5等多款车型。 多款新车的集中发布直接带动了门店客流与订单量的攀升。一位鸿蒙智行销售人员透露，以新 款智界R7为例，假期期间订车仍需等待4至6周才能交付。 （鸿蒙智行一批新车正等待交付 本报记者焦文娟/摄） 行业层面，"金九"成色初步显现。 乘联会数据显示，9月1日至27日，乘用车市场零售销量达 177.6万辆，环比增长12%。 记者丨 焦文娟 编辑丨包芳鸣 金珊 国庆中秋假期（下文简称："双节"），车市热度延续。记者发现，有品牌车型价格一口气 下 调近7万元，还有部分车型补贴高达5万元。 10月8日晚间，鸿蒙智行公布假期大定数据，9月30日至10月7日累计大定突破4.85万辆。 一是明确从2026年1月1日起，新能源汽车购置税将"免征"改为"减半征收" ，这意味着消费者 购车成本将最高增加1.5万元。 二是国家层面的"以旧换新"补贴政策在部分省份已于9月提前 结束。 一位经销商人士分析称，这种"错过就不再"的预期，促使大量观望中的消费者选择 ...

Core Insights - The Q3 report from Lu Master highlights significant advancements in the automotive sector, particularly in user experience dimensions such as cockpit system smoothness and voice AI recognition rates [2][18] - The new Tank 500 has emerged as a surprising leader in cockpit system smoothness, breaking the stereotype that off-road vehicles lag in technology [4][18] - Ideal and Wenjie continue to dominate the voice AI recognition rankings, while new entrants like Tengshi and Fangchengbao show strong competitive potential [15][18] Cockpit System Smoothness Rankings - The new Tank 500 achieved a remarkable smoothness index of 1288.6ms, setting a new record and challenging the perception of off-road vehicles [4][18] - Ideal's models, L8 and L7, maintained their strong positions in the rankings, showcasing consistent performance across various functionalities [6][18] - New players like Leida L90 entered the rankings with a solid performance of 1428.9ms, indicating effective system tuning and user interaction [8][18] - The mid-tier segment is competitive, with models like Lantu Dreamer and ZEEKR 007 showing similar performance around the 1500ms mark, though some features lag behind [12][18] Voice AI Recognition Rankings - Ideal L6 and Wenjie M8 topped the voice recognition rankings with a recognition rate of 64.79%, demonstrating advanced voice interaction capabilities [15][18] - New contenders like Tengshi Z9GT EV and Fangchengbao 8 are making significant strides, with recognition rates of 64.08% and 63.38% respectively [15][18] - The overall competition in voice AI recognition is tightening, with only a small gap between the top and bottom performers, indicating a shift towards detail-oriented improvements [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry [5]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Tesla's global deliveries exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.4%, reaching 497,000 units. The Model 3 and Model Y standard versions were launched in North America with reduced starting prices [1]. - Xpeng's sales surpassed 40,000 units in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 94.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.3% [1]. - NIO's deliveries also showed growth, with a year-on-year increase of 64.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.0%, totaling 34,749 units in September [1]. Summary by Sections Tesla and New Forces Sales Tracking - Tesla's global delivery volume reached 497,000 units in Q3 2025, with Model 3 and Y sales contributing significantly [1]. - Xpeng delivered 41,581 units in September, while NIO and Li Auto reported deliveries of 34,749 and 33,951 units, respectively [1]. Order Trends and Delivery Cycles - Tesla's delivery cycles for the domestic Model 3 and Model Y have been extended, indicating high demand as the peak season approaches [2]. - New energy vehicle manufacturers like Li Auto and NIO are also experiencing changes in delivery cycles, with some models seeing extended wait times [2]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as NIO, Xpeng, SAIC Motor, and Geely Automobile, as well as parts suppliers like Fuyao Glass and Top Group [3]. - It highlights the potential in the robotics and intelligent driving themes, suggesting a focus on companies involved in these sectors [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation Table - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are provided, with NIO, Xpeng, and SAIC Motor all receiving a "Buy" rating based on their projected performance [4].

Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market in China is experiencing a mixed performance, with Leap Motor achieving significant growth while Li Auto faces challenges in meeting its delivery targets [1][9][12]. Group 1: Leap Motor Performance - Leap Motor delivered 66,700 vehicles in September, marking a year-on-year increase of over 97%, setting a new monthly sales record for new energy vehicle startups in China [1][3]. - For the first nine months of 2025, Leap Motor's total deliveries reached 395,500 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 128.8% [4]. - The company celebrated the production of its one-millionth vehicle in September 2025, highlighting its rapid growth trajectory [4]. Group 2: Li Auto Challenges - Li Auto's September deliveries were 34,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 36.8%, placing it sixth among new energy vehicle startups [11]. - Cumulatively, Li Auto delivered 297,100 vehicles in the first nine months of 2025, down 13.07% year-on-year, and only achieved 46.42% of its revised annual target of 640,000 units [12][14]. - The company has adjusted its sales target from an initial 700,000 units to 640,000 units for 2025, indicating difficulties in meeting market expectations [14]. Group 3: Other Competitors - NIO reported a 64% increase in September deliveries, totaling 34,700 vehicles, with cumulative deliveries reaching 872,800 units [8]. - Xpeng Motors delivered 41,600 vehicles in September, achieving a year-on-year growth of approximately 95%, with a total of 313,200 units delivered in the first nine months of 2025, up about 218% [7]. - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 52,900 vehicles in September, with a total of over 950,000 units delivered, and reported a record high of over 110,000 new car orders in September [6].

Market Overview - US stock indices closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recording its largest single-day drop in a month, down 243.36 points to 46358.42, a decline of 0.52% [1] - The S&P 500 index fell 18.61 points to 6735.11, down 0.28%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 18.75 points to 23024.63, a decrease of 0.08% [1] - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, the materials sector saw the largest decline, while the consumer staples sector was the only one to rise [1] Earnings Season Insights - The upcoming earnings season is anticipated to show whether corporate profits can continue the stable growth seen in the past two quarters, with analysts expecting an 8.8% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 earnings for Q3, down from 13.8% in the previous quarter [2] - Major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are set to report their earnings next week [2] Economic Indicators - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose by 1.7 basis points to 4.15%, while the 2-year Treasury yield increased by 1.3 basis points to 3.60% [3] - The futures market indicates a 94.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, as the job market may weaken further [2] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures down 1.66% to $61.51 per barrel, and Brent crude down 1.55% to $65.22 per barrel [3] - Gold prices also retreated, with spot gold down 1.62% to $3976.76 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures down 1.96% to $3990.9 per ounce [3] Corporate Developments - Delta Air Lines reported stronger-than-expected Q3 earnings and raised its guidance for the current quarter, resulting in a 4.3% increase in its stock price [2] - The Keator Group's partner noted that the market is adjusting due to a lack of new economic data and clear policy signals, which is a natural occurrence [2]