Group 1 - TSMC's pricing strategy was conservative from 2005 to 2019, with an average wafer price increase of only $32 over 15 years, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of just 0.1% [2] - In 2019, TSMC embraced EUV technology, leading to an average selling price (ASP) growth of 15.9% annually, resulting in a cumulative increase of 133% over six years [3] - TSMC's gross margin per wafer is projected to reach 3.3 times the 2019 level by 2025, indicating strong pricing power and the ability to pass increased costs to downstream customers [3] Group 2 - Prior to 2019, a $1 increase in production costs led to only a $1.43 increase in wafer price, yielding a profit increment of $0.43; post-2019, the same cost increase results in a $2.31 price rise, boosting profit increment to over $1.30 [3] - TSMC's success is attributed to strong demand from clients like NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple for AI and high-performance computing chips, which prioritize performance over price [3] - Unlike Samsung, which faces yield issues limiting its EUV capacity to in-house use, TSMC has established deep partnerships with top global chip designers through its Open Innovation Platform (OIP) [4] Group 3 - The current market structure, characterized by systemic supply shortages and high capital intensity, is expected to remain unchallenged until a true competitor emerges [5]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has quietly announced the commencement of volume production of its N2 (2nm) process technology, achieving its goal set for Q4 2025 without a formal press release [1][5]. Group 1: N2 Technology Overview - The N2 process utilizes the first-generation nanosheet transistor technology, providing significant improvements in performance and power consumption [1]. - TSMC's N2 technology is expected to be the most advanced in the semiconductor industry in terms of density and energy efficiency, addressing the growing demand for energy-efficient computing [1]. - The N2 design aims for a 10%-15% performance increase at the same power level and a 25%-30% reduction in power consumption at the same performance level [3][4]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - For mixed designs including logic, analog, and SRAM, transistor density is expected to increase by 15% compared to N3E, while pure logic designs will see a 20% increase [3][4]. - The N2 process will feature a significant reduction in power consumption, with estimates ranging from 25% to 30% compared to N3E [4]. Group 3: Production and Capacity - TSMC has begun production of 2nm chips at its Fab 22 facility near Kaohsiung, Taiwan, with expectations for ramp-up in capacity driven by demand from smartphones and high-performance computing AI applications in 2026 [5][8]. - The company is constructing two new fabs capable of N2 technology to meet the strong interest from partners, with plans to produce N2P and A16 chips starting in late 2026 [8]. Group 4: Future Developments - TSMC plans to introduce N2P, an enhanced version of the N2 process, which will further improve performance and power efficiency, with volume production expected in the second half of 2026 [8]. - The A16 chip, designed for complex AI and HPC processors, will also begin production in the second half of 2026, utilizing TSMC's advanced Super Power Rail design [8].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is set to increase advanced process pricing from 2026 to 2029 due to high demand driven by AI applications, with a projected price increase of 3% to 10% for advanced processes starting January 2026 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Pricing Strategy - TSMC has communicated with clients about raising prices for advanced processes over the next four years, reflecting increased production costs and high demand [1][3]. - Despite the price increase, clients are actively reserving advanced process capacity, indicating strong demand in the AI sector [2][3]. - The expected price increase for 2026 is in the single-digit percentage range, with variations based on client procurement levels [1][3]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to reach a historical high of between $42 billion and $45 billion, maintaining a strong investment trend [3]. - The company has already reported a capital expenditure of $29.39 billion for the first three quarters of 2023, with expectations for the fourth quarter to reach between $10.61 billion and $12.61 billion [3]. - Global semiconductor manufacturing capital expenditure is estimated to reach $160 billion in 2023, primarily supported by TSMC and Micron's investments [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a seller's market for advanced processes, with rising costs reflected in pricing strategies across various segments, including wafer foundry and advanced packaging [5][6]. - The strong demand for AI chips positions TSMC at the core of the AI market, enhancing its bargaining power [6]. - The anticipated price increases in advanced packaging and memory also indicate a trend towards "chip inflation," which may impact consumer electronics demand [5][6].

Market Overview - US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.51%, Nasdaq down 0.5%, and S&P 500 down 0.35% due to volatility in commodity prices and limited progress in Ukraine ceasefire talks [1] - International oil prices rose over 2%, with WTI crude futures up 2.36% to $58.08 per barrel and Brent crude futures up 2.14% to $61.94 per barrel [1] - Precious metals saw significant declines, with COMEX gold futures down 4.45% to $4,350.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 7.2% to $71.64 per ounce [1] Currency and Investment Outlook - Offshore RMB against USD broke 7, rising 0.06% as foreign institutions expressed positive expectations for the Chinese market, anticipating an "upward opportunity period" for Chinese assets by 2026 due to liquidity and policy support [2] - The People's Bank of China announced a plan to enhance the digital RMB management service system, set to be implemented on January 1, 2026, marking a transition to a "digital deposit currency" era [2] Corporate Announcements - Tianjian Technology issued a major risk warning, predicting a negative net profit for 2025 due to military product price adjustments, which may lead to a delisting risk warning [3] - Shenjian Co., a commercial aerospace stock, announced severe abnormal stock price fluctuations, indicating a potential rapid decline in stock value [3] Stock Market Dynamics - As of December 26, 2025, the total market capitalization reached 109 trillion yuan, with a record trading volume exceeding 400 trillion yuan for the year, and an average daily trading volume of 1.72 trillion yuan, up 62% year-on-year [4] - The A-share market in 2025 exhibited a pattern of "policy-driven + event-catalyzed + industry landing," with significant activity in AI hardware and commercial aerospace concepts [4] Fund and Investment Trends - Southbound funds recorded a net sell of 3.414 billion HKD, with major sell-offs in China Mobile and Alibaba, while China Merchants Bank saw net buying [5] - As of November 2025, the total scale of public funds in China reached 37.02 trillion yuan, marking the eighth record high this year, with significant growth in money market funds [5] Industry Developments - The first domestically produced 300 MW heavy-duty gas turbine project was officially put into operation, marking a significant milestone in China's gas turbine industry [13] - Intel completed the sale of 214.8 million shares to Nvidia for $5 billion, indicating ongoing strategic movements in the semiconductor sector [14] Corporate Strategies - JD.com and Yushutech launched their first offline store, marking a significant step in their collaboration in the smart robotics sector [6] - Guizhou Moutai plans to maintain its market supply of Moutai 1935 while focusing on the mass consumer market with Moutai Prince liquor, aiming for a sales target of 10 billion yuan [6]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market indices collectively declined due to heightened tensions from significant fluctuations in commodity prices, with the S&P 500 down 0.35% to 6905.74 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.5% to 23474.35 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.51% to 48461.93 points [1] - The mining sector experienced a collective drop, with First Majestic Silver down 4.13% and Newmont Mining down 5.64%, while lithium giant Albemarle fell by 3.62% [2] Commodity Market - Silver futures on Comex saw extreme volatility, reaching a high of $82 per ounce before plummeting to $71.6, marking a decrease of 7.20% [4] - Analysts suggest that precious metals have been severely overbought, and the recent declines may present a buying opportunity in the coming weeks [4] Company News - SoftBank Group announced a $4 billion acquisition of data center investment company DigitalBridge, marking a significant step in its artificial intelligence strategy [10] - Citigroup expects to record an after-tax loss of approximately $1.1 billion in Q4 related to the sale of its Russian business, with the transaction anticipated to complete next year [11] - Meta has acquired AI startup Manus, which was originally founded in China and later moved to Singapore, although financial terms of the deal were not disclosed [12] Sector-Specific Developments - Lululemon is facing a rare power struggle as founder Chip Wilson seeks to remove the current board, emphasizing the need for visionary leadership to drive the company's next phase of success [9] - Novo Nordisk has lowered the price of its weight loss drug semaglutide in China, following the impending expiration of its patent, with local companies preparing to introduce cheaper generic alternatives [8] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.67%, with notable declines in Alibaba (down 2.46%) and JD.com (down 0.44%), while NIO and NetEase saw gains of 4.71% and 0.92%, respectively [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index (HXC) experienced a decline of 0.67% on December 30, with mixed performance among Chinese concept stocks, as the U.S. stock market faced profit-taking pressures, particularly affecting AI-related stocks [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Among the rising stocks, Netease increased by 0.92%, Ctrip by 0.15%, Baidu by 1.61%, and NIO by 5.10% [1][8]. - Declining stocks included Alibaba, which fell by 2.47%, Pinduoduo by 0.75%, and JD.com by 0.44% [1][8]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 249.04 points, or 0.51%, closing at 48,461.93 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 118.75 points, or 0.50%, to 23,474.35 points [1][8]. Group 2: Notable Gainers and Losers - Leading gainers included Youke Gongchang with a rise of 23.79%, followed by Paiming Xincheng at 17.10% and Baiya International at 16.70% [9][10]. - Significant losers featured Zhengye Biology, which plummeted by 21.57%, followed by Haoxin Holdings at 18.09% and Shuhai Co., which fell by 17.35% [11][12].

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis focusing on key players in the semiconductor industry, including Intel Corporation, ASML Holding NV, Micron Technology Inc, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing [1] Group 2 - The analysis highlights the competitive landscape and technological advancements within the semiconductor sector, emphasizing the importance of innovation and investment in research and development [1]

Core Insights - Hardman Johnston Global Advisors reported that its "Global Equity Strategy" portfolio underperformed in Q3 2025, returning 5.02% net of fees compared to 7.62% for the MSCI AC World Net Index [1] Company Performance - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) had a one-month return of 5.27% and a 52-week gain of 51.13%, closing at $302.84 per share with a market capitalization of $1.571 trillion on December 26, 2025 [2] - TSMC was highlighted as a top contributor to relative performance in Q3 2025, alongside Prosus N.V. and Commerzbank AG [3] - TSMC raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance by approximately 5 percentage points to 30% growth, with its High Performance Computing segment accounting for 60% of total sales [3] - TSMC's revenue increased by 6% sequentially in NT in Q3 2025, and it remains a key player in AI infrastructure across various ecosystems [4] Investment Sentiment - TSMC is ranked 9th among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 194 hedge fund portfolios holding TSMC at the end of Q3 2025, up from 187 in the previous quarter [4] - Despite TSMC's strong performance, there is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk [4]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant price increase across both mature and advanced processes, driven by structural supply-demand imbalances and rising costs, particularly influenced by the AI industry's growth [2][4][5]. Group 1: Price Increases - SMIC has officially notified downstream customers of a price increase of approximately 10% for 8-inch BCD process foundry services, with multiple chip companies confirming receipt of this notice [2]. - Taiwan's World Advanced Semiconductor has followed suit with a similar 10% price increase for the same process, indicating a clear industry-wide trend [2]. - TSMC plans to implement a series of price increases for advanced processes below 5nm starting January 2026, with an average increase of 3%-5% over four years [2]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The current price surge is attributed to a long-term structural imbalance between supply and demand, with explosive growth in demand, particularly from the AI sector, being a key driver [4]. - The demand for power management chips in AI servers has surged, leading to a critical shortage of related production capacity, particularly for BCD processes [4]. - TrendForce's research indicates that by the second half of 2025, driven by AI demand, wafer foundries' capacity utilization rates are expected to remain higher than previously anticipated, with some manufacturers performing better in Q4 than in Q3 [4]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - TSMC is actively reducing its 8-inch mature process capacity to focus on high-value advanced processes, planning to shut down some production lines by the end of 2027, which exacerbates the supply constraints in the mature process segment [5]. - Domestic foundries are operating at full capacity, with SMIC achieving a capacity utilization rate of 95.8% and a monthly output of over 1 million 8-inch wafers [5]. - Huahong Semiconductor's capacity utilization rate has reached 109.5%, indicating an overworked state, which provides a strong basis for price increases [5]. Group 4: Cost Pressures - The cost of raw materials, particularly metals like gold and copper, remains high, with leading silicon wafer companies raising prices by an average of 12% in late December, directly increasing wafer manufacturing costs [5]. - Rising energy and labor costs further compress profit margins for foundries, making price increases a necessary response to maintain profitability [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience of TSMC's operations in the face of a significant earthquake, highlighting the effectiveness of their extensive seismic safety measures and the minimal impact on global semiconductor supply chains [2][4][5]. Group 1: Earthquake Impact - A 6.6 magnitude earthquake struck near Yilan County, Taiwan, marking the strongest quake in the region in 27 years [1]. - TSMC reported that all its factories remained undamaged, preventing major fluctuations in global chip prices [2]. - The earthquake's effects were largely limited to minor damages across Taiwan, with TSMC's facilities experiencing only a level 4 tremor [4]. Group 2: TSMC's Safety Measures - TSMC has invested heavily in seismic safety, implementing advanced structural designs and emergency systems to mitigate earthquake risks [5]. - The company's clean rooms feature double-shell designs and are equipped with dampers and hydraulic pistons to isolate vibrations [5]. - TSMC's proactive measures include a dedicated earthquake early warning system, which has proven effective in past seismic events, allowing for rapid recovery of operations [5]. Group 3: Operational Resilience - Following the earthquake, TSMC quickly initiated evacuation and safety protocols, ensuring personnel safety while maintaining operational integrity [2][4]. - The company demonstrated its capability to restore 70% of equipment functionality within 10 hours during a previous earthquake, showcasing its robust recovery plans [5]. - TSMC's investments in disaster preparedness have significantly reduced potential economic losses, with past incidents resulting in manageable damages [5].