Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the photovoltaic sector [2][7]. Core Insights - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products, effective from April 1, 2026, marks the end of over a decade of direct fiscal support for photovoltaic exports, potentially leading the industry towards high-quality development [1][2]. - A "window period" is expected to create a surge in export orders and production increases in Q1 2026, improving the performance of companies heavily reliant on exports [2]. - Following the end of the export rebate, overseas pricing for photovoltaic components is anticipated to rise, benefiting leading companies with strong brand and channel advantages [2]. - The cancellation of the rebate is seen as a response to the industry's call to reduce low-price competition, which may accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacities and allow leading firms to gain market share [2]. - Companies with overseas production capabilities and local market presence are expected to benefit from the reduced cost disadvantage of local manufacturing [2]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be eliminated, transitioning the industry towards a more sustainable growth model [1][2]. Market Dynamics - A surge in orders and production is expected in Q1 2026 due to the impending policy change, similar to previous "rush to install" phenomena [2]. - The end of the rebate is likely to lead to a reevaluation of overseas component prices, with stronger pricing power for top-tier companies [2]. Competitive Landscape - The cancellation of the rebate is anticipated to facilitate the exit of low-efficiency production capacities, allowing leading companies to enhance their market share through technological and brand advantages [2]. - Companies with advanced technologies and cost advantages, such as those focusing on TOPCon/BC technologies and silicon material upgrades, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2]. Valuation of Key Companies - A table of key companies with their respective valuations and projected earnings for 2025-2027 is provided, indicating varying levels of profitability and market performance [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI applications are in the early stages of monetization, with significant calendar effects in investment opportunities. It emphasizes the importance of capturing marginal changes in the industry and being mindful of rotation rhythms [2]. - The report notes that the AI application market is driven by factors such as the introduction of advertising by OpenAI and the growth of AI application users in China, with ByteDance's Doubao surpassing 100 million daily active users [1][2]. - The report identifies key opportunities in the market, particularly in sectors like gaming, AI video, and advertising, where companies are expected to benefit from AI advancements and changing consumer behaviors [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections AI Applications - The report discusses the critical phase of user growth and monetization for AI applications, with significant developments in both domestic and international markets [1]. - It mentions the emergence of AI general assistants and their potential to reshape traffic patterns, with companies like Tencent and Alibaba being highlighted for their ecosystem advantages [3]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is noted for its low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and the upcoming Spring Festival, which is expected to boost demand. Companies such as Giant Network and 37 Interactive Entertainment are recommended for their growth potential [3]. AI Video and IP - The report emphasizes the rapid advancement of AI video and domestic AI comic dramas, with a focus on copyright as a core competitive advantage. Companies like Chinese Online and Huayi Brothers are highlighted for their potential in this space [3]. Advertising and UGC - The report indicates that AI is expected to enhance advertising monetization efficiency and drive user-generated content (UGC) community growth. Companies like Bilibili and Kuaishou are noted for their strong user and advertising growth prospects [3]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalization, revenue forecasts, and profit margins for 2024 to 2026, showcasing the expected growth trajectories in the industry [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating based on recent market performance and emerging opportunities in innovative drug development [2][3]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector saw a significant increase, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index rising by 7.8%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 3.82% [2][3]. - The report highlights the ongoing commercialization of innovative drugs, including the oral GLP-1 medication Wegovy by Novo Nordisk, and the successful clinical trials of various RNAi therapies [11][13][18]. - The establishment of a comprehensive long-term care insurance system in China is expected to enhance the healthcare landscape, potentially benefiting the pharmaceutical sector [11][12]. Market Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index ranked 6th among 31 Shenwan first-level sub-industries, with various sub-sectors showing positive growth, such as medical devices (+10.8%) and medical research outsourcing (+11.1%) [2][5]. - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector stands at 30.6 times earnings, ranking 10th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries [5][10]. Recent Key Events - The report notes the successful approval and commercialization of several new drugs, including BeiGene's BCL-2 inhibitor and Sanofi's APOC3 siRNA drug, which address significant medical needs [20][22]. - Collaborations in drug development are highlighted, such as the $8.88 billion partnership between Insilico Medicine and Servier focusing on oncology [21]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the brain-computer interface industry, with companies like Mindray Medical and Lepu Medical making strides in this area [24]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on domestic innovative drug companies and CROs, particularly those involved in the development of small nucleic acid drugs and brain-computer interface technologies [2][11]. - Specific companies to watch include Tigermed, WuXi AppTec, and Innovent Biologics, which are positioned to benefit from the recovery of the innovative drug sector [2][11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in pig prices, which are stabilizing and maintaining strength. The focus is on the release of the pet industry white paper [1][4]. - The report suggests that the pig farming sector is experiencing a clear bottoming trend, with a focus on the progress of capacity reduction. The supply fundamentals for the first half of 2026 remain unchanged, indicating a prolonged bottoming period for the cycle [4]. - The pet industry is expected to see a valuation switch as it undergoes adjustments, with significant data from the 2026 China Pet Industry White Paper being released [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index increased by 1.0%, while the CSI 300 rose by 2.8%. The top five gainers included Dahu Co. (17.8%), Zhongshui Fishery (16.1%), and Biological Co. (15.5%) [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the reduction of pig production capacity and suggests positioning in leading pig farming companies [4]. Pig Farming - As of January 11, the average selling price of external three yuan pigs was 12.70 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.1%. The supply of large pigs is tight, and the price has rebounded to near the breakeven point for farming [4][3]. - The report indicates that the price of weaned piglets has also increased, reaching 251 yuan/head, close to the industry cost level [4][3]. Pet Industry - The 2025 urban pet (dog and cat) consumption market size reached 312.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%. The dog market size was 160.6 billion yuan, growing by 3.2%, while the cat market size was 152.0 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% [4][3]. - The average annual spending per pet owner has shown a slight upward trend, with dog owners spending an average of 3,006 yuan and cat owners spending 2,085 yuan [4][3]. Poultry Farming - The price of white feather broiler chicks has decreased, with an average selling price of 3.15 yuan/chick, down 6.5% week-on-week. The supply of broilers remains tight, with the average selling price of white feather broilers at 3.79 yuan/kg [4][3]. - The report suggests that the theme of abundant supply in white feather broilers will continue into 2025-2026, with a focus on leading companies and long-term value [4].

2026 年 01 月 12 日 逆向策略 ETF 发行 ——海外创新产品周报 20260112 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com ETP 研 究 - ⚫ 美国 ETF 创新产品：逆向策略 ETF 发行。上周美国共 11 只新发产品，Global X 发行零 息债券目标到期日系列产品；Tidal 和 LOGIQ 上周发行一只"逆向策略"ETF，通过和市 场反向的观点寻找股票、债券中的低估机会，产品可以通过期权等工具来增厚收益。 ⚫ 美国 ETF 资金流向：国际股票产品流入再次超过美国股票。过去一周中，美国国际股票 ETF 流入再次超过美国国内股票产品，债券 ETF 有 100 亿美元以上流入；Vanguard 标 普 500ETF 继续为流入第一产品，股票、债券的宽基产品都在流入前列，贝莱德的国际股 票产品流入较多，而美股风格产品、高收益债产品有所流出。 ⚫ 美国 E ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the photovoltaic industry as "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2]. Core Insights - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products, effective April 1, 2026, marks the end of over a decade of direct fiscal support for photovoltaic exports, potentially leading the industry into a phase of high-quality development [1]. - A "window period" is anticipated, leading to increased overseas orders and production ramp-up in Q1 2026, similar to previous phases of accelerated installations, which is expected to improve the performance of export-oriented photovoltaic companies [2]. - After the policy window closes, overseas component prices are likely to be renegotiated, as China, being the largest exporter of photovoltaic components, will have stronger pricing power due to the cancellation of the rebate, which is expected to lead to price increases [2]. - The cancellation of the export rebate is seen as a response to the call for reducing low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, which will accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacities and reshape the market landscape [2]. - Companies with overseas production capacity and strong brand/channel advantages are expected to benefit from the narrowing cost disadvantage of local manufacturing, particularly in regions like the Middle East and North Africa [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Outlook - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate is expected to enhance the industry's quality of development and reduce fiscal funds being transferred to overseas terminals [2]. - The report suggests that leading companies with technological advantages (TOPCon/BC), strong brands, and distribution channels will continue to gain market share [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with overseas production capabilities, such as Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others, which are expected to benefit from the "price adjustment and capacity exit" [2]. - Companies that are advancing new technologies and material upgrades, such as Aiko Solar and Dongfang Risheng, are also highlighted for their potential to enhance product efficiency and pricing power [2]. - Cost-advantaged silicon material companies like Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy are recommended for investment consideration [2]. Valuation Table - A valuation table is provided, detailing the estimated net profits and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies in the industry, indicating varying performance expectations for 2025 to 2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI applications are entering a critical phase of user growth and monetization, with significant developments in both domestic and international markets [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing marginal changes in the industry and being aware of rotation rhythms, particularly in the context of AI applications [2]. - Key companies in the gaming and media sectors are identified as having strong potential due to low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and upcoming seasonal demand [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the transformation of traffic operation mechanisms driven by technological advancements, which will impact marketing and e-commerce services [3]. - It notes that AI assistants are expected to reshape traffic patterns, with companies leveraging e-commerce advantages [3]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is highlighted for its low PE ratios and potential growth during the upcoming Spring Festival, with recommendations for companies like Giant Network and 37 Interactive Entertainment [3]. AI Video and IP - The report mentions the rapid advancement of AI video and domestic AI comic dramas, with a focus on copyright as a core competitive advantage [3]. Key Company Valuations - A detailed valuation table is provided, showcasing the market capitalization, revenue, and profit forecasts for key companies in the sector, indicating growth potential and varying PE ratios [5].

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - China has submitted applications for over 200,000 satellite constellations, with the largest being CTC-1 and CTC-2, each comprising 96,714 satellites[6] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to see significant growth, with a focus on satellite payloads, platforms, and application terminals[3] - Key companies to watch include Xinke Mobile, Fenghuo Communication, and China Satellite Communications[21] Group 2: Space Photovoltaics - The focus from 2024 to 2026 will be on P-type HJT and perovskite tandem batteries, with companies like Dongfang Risen and Junda Co. highlighted for their capabilities[33] - P-type HJT batteries are expected to penetrate low Earth orbit applications due to their superior radiation resistance and cost advantages[40] - The global photovoltaic market is dominated by China, which holds over 90% of the production capacity in polysilicon, wafers, and battery cells[46] Group 3: Controlled Nuclear Fusion - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for nuclear fusion development in China, marking the start of significant capital expenditure[51] - Key players in the nuclear fusion sector include Hezhong Intelligent and Lianchuang Optoelectronics, focusing on core components and supporting technologies[51] - The BEST project in Anhui has made significant progress, with key components successfully installed, indicating a shift towards engineering validation[50] Group 4: Robotics and Automation - The CES 2026 showcased advancements in cleaning robots and intelligent lawn mowers, indicating a trend towards embodied intelligence in consumer products[54] - The cleaning robot market is experiencing rapid growth, benefiting from government subsidies, with major players like Ecovacs and Roborock leading the market[60]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4120 | 0.92 | 5.39 | 3.82 | | 深证综指 | 2660 | 1.34 | 7 | 5.1 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.42 | 3.11 | 19.63 | | 中盘指数 | 1.67 | 11.01 | 33.92 | | 小盘指数 | 1.93 | 11.5 | 30.69 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 广告营销 | 7.8 | 24.62 | 30.15 | | 航天装备Ⅱ | 6.87 | 105.02 | 184.3 | | 电视广播Ⅱ | 6.11 | 14.7 | 32.37 | | 数字媒体 | 4.83 | 11.88 | 15.02 | | 游戏Ⅱ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [2][3] Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent oil prices expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [2][3] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the organic silicon sector, driven by supply constraints and rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year [2] - The report suggests focusing on key sectors such as industrial silicon, PVC, and phosphorus, as well as companies like Xinjiang Tianye and Xingfa Group, which are expected to benefit from differentiated electricity pricing policies in Shaanxi Province [2][3] Summary by Sections Chemical Macro Outlook - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with an expected increase in oil prices [3] - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, alleviating pressure on downstream industries [3] - The U.S. is likely to accelerate natural gas export facility construction, potentially lowering import costs [2][3] Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 3.7% to $63.02 per barrel, while WTI prices rose by 2.7% to $58.84 per barrel [9] - The PPI for all industrial products decreased by 1.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [5] Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the textile chain, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemical products, and companies benefiting from "de-involution" policies [2] - Specific companies to watch include: - For textiles: Lu Xi Chemical, Tongkun Co., and Hengli Petrochemical - For agricultural chemicals: Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy - For export-related chemicals: Juhua Co. and Wanhu Chemical [2][15] Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalizations and projected earnings [15][16]