证 券 研 究 报 告 改革深化 融合加速 ——2026年北交所投资策略 证券分析师： 刘靖 A0230512070005 王雨晴 A0230522010003 郑菁华 A0230525060001 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 研究支持： 吕靖华 A0230124070002 2025.11.19 主要内容 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 北证四周年，市场近万亿，流动性明显改善，市场功能逐步完善。1）2025年11月15日北证迎来四周年，经过四年发展，北证已逐步融入A股；2）规模：截止 11月14日，北证共有282家上市公司，总市值9008亿，分别相比首日增长248%和212%。北证A股的专精特新"小巨人"数量占比和市值占比为56.7%和57%， 均为全市场最高，北证已聚集一批设备类、材料类、新能源产业链、新能源汽车产业链为代表的优质创新型中小企业；3）流动性：25年日均换手率5.4%，为 全A最高，开户数950万，相比首日增长约1.4倍，吸引了一批公募、社保、保险等机构投资者参与；4）市场功能逐步完善。做市商制度、融资融券制度、并购 重组、再融资等市场功能逐步完善。 ...

Group 1 - The current AI market in the US has entered a "gear-shifting" phase, with a focus on valuation adjustments and a more stringent examination of returns on investment (ROI) in the AI sector [2][4] - Concerns about an "AI bubble" stem from the gap between the optimistic expectations of capital markets and the time required for new technologies to generate economic scale effects [2][3] - The hard constraints affecting AI include physical limitations such as computing power, electricity, and algorithms, while soft constraints involve regulatory costs, organizational adjustments, and data quality [2][3] Group 2 - The AI sector has experienced adjustments due to macroeconomic tightening and concerns over computing power and algorithm efficiency, with historical comparisons indicating significant drawdowns during similar market conditions [2][3] - The report highlights that the debt pressure on AI infrastructure is currently manageable, but some companies are showing signs of divergence in their financial health [3][4] - The overall debt levels related to AI hardware have been slowly increasing, with a decline in the free cash flow to debt ratio, indicating potential future risks if revenue does not grow rapidly [3] Group 3 - The profitability of AI applications is uneven, with B2B applications showing higher margins compared to C2C applications, which generally remain unprofitable [2][3] - The report notes that the current AI penetration rate in US enterprises is around 10%, with expectations for growth in specific sectors such as information services and finance [2][3] - The anticipated total investment in AI by 2025 is approximately $3.8 trillion, with ROI sensitivity to GPU depreciation rates being a critical factor for future investments [2][3] Group 4 - The S&P 500 has seen a decline in earnings while volatility has increased, indicating a shift in market dynamics as valuations enter a digestion phase [6][8] - The report suggests that the profitability effect in the AI sector is expected to spread in 2025, although the proportion of valuation expansion is weakening compared to previous years [8]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3940 | -0.81 | 2.61 | -1.57 | | 深证综指 | 2486 | -1.04 | 3.71 | -1.26 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -0.53 | 1.15 | 17.53 | | 中盘指数 | -1.16 | 1.45 | 26.1 | | 小盘指数 | -0.94 | 4.27 | 23.91 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 广告营销 | 3.99 | 15.01 | 16.32 | | 数字媒体 | 3.41 | 5.75 | 10.21 | | 互联网电商 | 2.28 | -0.02 | 7.06 | | 渔业 | 2.02 | 20.85 | 26.74 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its small three-electric (小三电) business, with significant contributions from overseas markets and AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) as a second growth curve [1][6]. - The company has established a strong customer base, including major players in the electric vehicle sector, and is transitioning from traditional automotive clients to new energy vehicle manufacturers [6][19]. - The report forecasts substantial revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 34.51 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.8% from 2024 to 2027 [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Strong Customer Structure and Growth Drivers - The company has a well-established customer base, including renowned manufacturers such as Renault, Stellantis, and NIO, which has driven revenue growth from 9.64 billion yuan in 2021 to 18.35 billion yuan in 2023 [19][34]. - The transition to new energy vehicle clients has been a key growth driver, with significant revenue contributions from NIO and Xiaomi expected to offset declines from traditional clients like GAC Group [6][35]. 2. Competitive Landscape in Small Three-Electric Market - The small three-electric market is witnessing a trend towards integration, with the company capturing over 8% market share in the first half of 2025 [6][47]. - The report anticipates that the Chinese small three-electric market will grow from 25.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 39 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 11.51% [54]. 3. Overseas Expansion and AIDC as a Second Growth Curve - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with international revenue accounting for 17.77% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [6][3]. - AIDC is identified as a potential second growth curve, with significant market opportunities projected as the demand for high-stability charging modules increases [6][3]. 4. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.00 billion yuan, 3.69 billion yuan, and 5.35 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 32, 17, and 12 [2][7]. - The report assigns a target PE of 29 for 2026, suggesting a potential market capitalization of 10.55 billion yuan, indicating a 66% upside from the current valuation [7][6].

Core Insights - The North American AI narrative has evolved over the past three years, with a shift from FOMO-driven capital expenditures (Capex) to a focus on return on investment (ROI) as the market matures [3][5][8] - The total Capex for major cloud and internet companies is projected to reach $554 billion in FY26, representing a year-over-year increase of 38% [3][18] - The top three AI model providers are narrowing the performance gap, with Anthropic focusing on B-end programming and Google’s Gemini gaining market share [3][25][27] Cloud Computing - Capex in cloud computing is expected to continue expanding in 2026, but ROI is anticipated to vary among companies [24][46] - Google Cloud (GCP) and Amazon AWS are expected to accelerate growth driven by demand from Anthropic and Gemini [15][18] - The Capex of major cloud providers is projected to be $554 billion in FY26, with Google showing the healthiest Capex to operating cash flow ratio [18][19] AI Models - The competitive landscape among AI models is diversifying, with a focus on commercial acceleration [24][46] - Anthropic is expected to achieve positive cash flow by 2027, with a revenue forecast of $70 billion by 2028 [34][45] - OpenAI's revenue strategy balances B-end and C-end markets, with a valuation of $500 billion as of October 2025 [39][40] AI Applications - AI applications are witnessing rapid commercialization, particularly in programming and advertising, with expected revenues in the hundreds of billions [51][54] - AI video applications are nearing a commercialization tipping point, supported by increased computational power [54][55] - The enterprise AI sector is expected to accelerate in 2026 as foundational work in data governance and workflow integration is completed [54] AI Computing Power - The focus of competition is shifting towards developing ecosystems, with significant advancements in hardware and software performance [3][24] - The supply of AI computing power is diversifying, with Google’s TPU hardware gaining traction and AMD and Amazon's Tranium ecosystems maturing [3][24] AI Networks - The network architecture is transitioning from scale-out to scale-up, with a focus on optical communication and power supply solutions [3][24] - 2026 is anticipated to be a critical year for the explosion of silicon photonics solutions and the introduction of CPO networks [3][24] Key Company Valuations - Recommended stocks include Google and Amazon in the AI-internet and cloud computing sectors, with a focus on Snowflake and ServiceNow in software [3][24] - In the semiconductor space, Broadcom is highlighted, with Nvidia and AMD as companies to watch [3][24]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7][6]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in low-power Bluetooth SoC, focusing on wearable devices and AIoT applications. It has established a strong market position with significant revenue growth projections for the coming years [6][7]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 42.53 billion, 54.41 billion, and 67.11 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 30%, 28%, and 23% [7][6]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 7.98 billion, 10.57 billion, and 13.00 billion yuan, indicating robust profitability growth [7][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) for the years 2024 to 2027 is projected as follows: - 2024: 3,263 - 2025: 4,253 - 2026: 5,441 - 2027: 6,711 - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are expected to be 49.9% in 2024, 30.3% in 2025, 27.9% in 2026, and 23.3% in 2027 [5]. - Net profit (in million yuan) is forecasted as: - 2024: 460 - 2025: 798 - 2026: 1,057 - 2027: 1,300 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 272.5% in 2024, 73.2% in 2025, 32.5% in 2026, and 23.0% in 2027 [5]. Market Position and Product Development - The company has a 10% market share in TWS (True Wireless Stereo) earphone SoC shipments, ranking fourth globally in terms of shipment volume [6][8]. - The BES2800 chip, built on a 6nm process, is designed for high-end applications and has been adopted by major brands like Samsung for flagship products [6][8]. - The company is expanding its product offerings to include smart watch chips, with expected revenue of 1.045 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 116% year-on-year growth [6][8]. Competitive Advantages - The company has developed a platform-based strategy allowing a single chip to be used across multiple product categories, enhancing its competitive edge [28][29]. - The integration of advanced technologies such as AI, low-power consumption, and high-performance capabilities positions the company favorably against international competitors [9][29]. Valuation Metrics - As of November 17, 2025, the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 45 times for 2025 and 34 times for 2026, compared to an average PE of 44 times for comparable companies, indicating a potential upside of 29% [7][6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Qingmu Technology [5][6]. Core Views - Qingmu Technology is positioned as a data and technology-driven one-stop retail service expert, focusing on e-commerce operations, brand incubation, and technical solutions across various consumer sectors [5][6]. - The company has established a stable and concentrated shareholding structure, with the founders holding approximately 39% of the shares, ensuring management stability [19][21]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 15.1 billion, 19.0 billion, and 23.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 30.5%, 26.5%, and 23.0% [4][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 11.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2%, and a projected net profit of 0.91 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 73.84% [4][24]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize above 50%, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 8.5% in 2025, increasing to 13.0% by 2027 [4][6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.31 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 45.2% [6][24]. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Qingmu Technology operates in three main business segments: e-commerce operations, brand incubation, and technical solutions, leveraging data and technology to enhance operational efficiency [5][6]. - The company has a strong competitive edge through its ability to integrate consumer data across multiple platforms, which allows it to provide tailored solutions for brand growth [8][35]. - The brand incubation segment is expected to become the largest revenue contributor, with projected revenues of 3.07 billion yuan in 2024 [32][35]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has successfully expanded into high-growth sectors such as trendy toys and health products, with significant partnerships with brands like Skechers and Jellycat [5][35]. - Qingmu Technology's strategic focus on digital marketing and technology solutions positions it well to capture market share in the evolving e-commerce landscape [5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the e-commerce operations segment, driven by the increasing demand for integrated digital solutions [7][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Health (06618) [4][10] Core Insights - JD Health's Q3 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue of 17.12 billion (up 28.7%) and adjusted net profit of 1.90 billion (up 42.4%) [8][9] - The company is expected to benefit from strong growth in drug sales, increased advertising revenue, and enhanced AI capabilities [9][10] - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2027, with estimates of 70.95 billion, 81.99 billion, and 93.49 billion respectively [6][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for JD Health are as follows: - 2023: Revenue 53.53 billion, Net Profit 2.14 billion - 2024: Revenue 58.16 billion, Net Profit 4.16 billion - 2025E: Revenue 70.95 billion, Net Profit 4.74 billion - 2026E: Revenue 81.99 billion, Net Profit 5.66 billion - 2027E: Revenue 93.49 billion, Net Profit 6.76 billion [6][12]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in low-power Bluetooth SoC, focusing on wearable devices and AIoT applications, with significant market share in TWS earphones and smartwatches [7][8]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 42.53 billion, 54.41 billion, and 67.11 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 30%, 28%, and 23% [8]. - The company has a strong competitive position due to its advanced technology and established relationships with major brands like Samsung, OPPO, and Xiaomi [7][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 3,263 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 49.9% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 798 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 73.2% [6]. - The company maintains a low asset-liability ratio of 7.59% and a high return on equity (ROE) of 10.9% in 2025 [6]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company holds approximately 10% of the global TWS main control chip market, ranking fourth in terms of shipment volume [7]. - The smart wearable chip segment is expected to see significant growth, with revenue projected to reach 10.45 billion yuan in 2024, a 116% increase year-on-year [7]. - The introduction of AI glasses and the development of proprietary ISP technology position the company for future growth in high-performance wearable SoCs [7]. Product Development and Technology - The company has developed a unified software and algorithm framework that enhances customer stickiness and supports multiple product lines [7]. - The BES2800 chip, built on a 6nm process, integrates advanced features such as dual-core Cortex-M55 and self-developed NPU, catering to the needs of AI and low-power applications [7][8]. - The company’s strategy of "one chip for multiple uses" allows for a versatile application of its chips across various devices, enhancing platform reuse [31]. Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned against both domestic and international competitors, with a focus on high-end markets and a strategy to maintain technological leadership [10][38]. - The competitive advantage is bolstered by a strong customer base, with the top five clients accounting for 74% of sales in 2024 [38]. Valuation Metrics - As of November 17, 2025, the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected at 45 times for 2025 and 34 times for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 29% compared to comparable companies [8].

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%[6] Fiscal Spending Decline - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure plummeted to -19.1%, a decrease of 21.4 percentage points compared to September[1] - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%[7] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in fiscal expenditure is attributed to three main factors: high base effect from 2024, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing[1] - Broad fiscal revenue in October fell by -0.6%, a drop of 3.8 percentage points from September, with government fund revenue down by -18.4%[4] Government Debt Financing - Government net financing in October 2025 decreased by 5,602 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth[3] - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and support for commercial banks, has been largely completed by mid-August[3] Future Outlook - With the implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and another 500 billion yuan in local debt limits, there may be a recovery in fiscal expenditure growth towards the end of the year[4] - The support from "quasi-fiscal" funds is expected to accelerate as these funds are deployed in key sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence[4]