Market Overview - The US labor market remains resilient, with the unemployment rate marginally decreasing to 4.4% in December 2025[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield recorded 4.18%, down 1 basis point this week, while the US dollar index rose by 0.69% to 99.1[15] - Gold prices increased by 3.68% and oil prices surged by 3.74% due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions on Russian oil[4] Asset Correlation and Inflation - The long-term correlation between US stocks and bonds has slightly declined since 2025, with expectations of continued low inflation in 2026[10] - If geopolitical factors lead to a significant rise in oil prices, the correlation may remain high, undermining the hedging effectiveness of US bonds against stocks[10] Global Fund Flows - Global funds saw a significant outflow of $12.07 billion from US equity funds and a substantial inflow of $14.18 billion into US fixed-income funds[4] - Chinese stock markets attracted capital inflows, particularly in materials, communications, and healthcare sectors[4] Valuation Metrics - As of January 9, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation exceeded that of the S&P 500 and CAC 40, reaching 93.2% of its historical percentile[4] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the S&P 500 rose to 60%, while the Nasdaq's increased from 37% to 46%[4] Economic Indicators - The market is pricing in a 95.60% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in January 2026[4] - Upcoming key economic indicators include the US inflation data for December 2025[4] Risk Considerations - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not reflect long-term trends, and there is a risk of deeper-than-expected economic recession in Europe and the US[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, despite recent underperformance compared to the market [2][3]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown weaker performance than the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by 2.6% from December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, which is lower than the Shenwan A Index by 2.8 percentage points [3][4]. - 毛戈平 has initiated an international strategic partnership with L Catterton, focusing on global market expansion, acquisitions, and strategic investments, which is expected to enhance its high-end retail channels and operational optimization [9][21]. - Recent approvals for products such as 爱美客's botulinum toxin and 奇璞生物's collagen implant highlight the ongoing advancements in the medical beauty supply chain, supporting diversified competition in 2026 [9][22][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has underperformed the market, with specific indices showing lower growth rates compared to the overall market [3][4]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector include 力合科创 (+14.7%), 毛戈平 (+8.6%), and 水羊股份 (+7.6%), while the worst performers were 嘉亨家化 (-3.9%) and 百亚股份 (-2.8%) [5]. Recent Developments - 毛戈平's strategic partnership with L Catterton aims to enhance its brand's global presence and operational capabilities [9][21]. - The approval of 爱美客's botulinum toxin and 奇璞生物's collagen implant signifies a robust supply chain in the medical beauty sector [22][23]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include 毛戈平, 上美股份, and 上海家化 for their strong brand matrices and growth potential. Companies like 爱美客 and 朗姿股份 are highlighted for their strong profitability and product pipeline [3][10]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with high R&D barriers and strong profitability in the upstream medical beauty segment [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, highlighting the potential for undervalued leading companies with high dividends and stable growth attributes [6]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with air conditioning sales declining significantly while washing machines show growth in exports. The report emphasizes the importance of leading brands like Midea, Gree, and Haier in navigating market challenges and capitalizing on emerging opportunities [6][36][43]. Summary by Sections Air Conditioning - In November 2025, the air conditioning industry produced 10.577 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 36.70%. Total sales reached 10.492 million units, down 31.80%, with domestic sales at 4.052 million units (down 39.80%) and exports at 6.44 million units (down 25.60%). Midea led the market with a 36.20% share, followed by Gree at 19.50% [2][36][38]. Refrigerators - The refrigerator sector saw a slight overall decline, with production at 8.257 million units (down 3.9%) and sales at 8.0531 million units (down 2.99%). Domestic sales fell to 3.5611 million units (down 15.59%), while exports increased to 4.492 million units (up 10.04%) [2][40][41]. Washing Machines - The washing machine industry reported production of 8.605 million units (up 8.2%) and sales of 8.4619 million units (up 7.61%). Domestic sales were 4.0565 million units (down 5.47%), while exports rose to 4.4054 million units (up 23.31%) [3][43]. Market Performance - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the sector index rising 2.3% against a 2.8% increase in the CSI 300 index. Key performers included Rongtai Health (up 15.7%) and Yitian Intelligent (up 11.2%), while companies like Lek Electric and Feike Electric faced declines [5][9]. Industry Dynamics - Notable developments include Stone Technology's CES debut of the G-Rover robot vacuum, showcasing advanced cleaning capabilities, and Kaineng Health's acquisition of subsidiaries from Yuaneng Group for 204 million yuan [5][12][13]. Investment Themes - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. Leading white and black appliance companies with low valuations and high dividends. 2. Upstream core component manufacturers diversifying into robotics and new tech sectors. 3. Strong demand in emerging markets for home appliances, driven by favorable trade conditions [6].

Group 1 - The report highlights a strong start for the North Exchange in 2026, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 5.82% and daily trading volume increasing by 34.58% [9][14][25] - Key sectors showing significant growth include aerospace, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and pharmaceuticals, with notable performances from companies in the rocket and satellite industry and the space photovoltaic sector [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of thematic investments, particularly in the spring season, focusing on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and future industries within the North Exchange [9][10] Group 2 - The North Exchange saw 261 stocks rise and 26 fall, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 10.04, with top performers including BeiYikang and ZhongCheng Technology [34] - The average PE (TTM) for the North Exchange is reported at 86.55 times, with a median of 42.05 times, indicating a favorable valuation compared to other exchanges [22][24] - The report notes that the North Exchange's financing balance increased to 8.383 billion yuan, reflecting a positive trend in market liquidity [26][14] Group 3 - The report outlines upcoming IPOs and approvals, including the subscription of Kema Materials and the upcoming subscription of Aisheren, along with three companies scheduled for review [27][31] - The new three-board market saw five new listings and five delistings, with planned financing of 221 million yuan and completed financing of 83 million yuan [47][49] - The report identifies key companies to watch in the space photovoltaic and AI application sectors, including Liancheng CNC and Optech, as well as others involved in humanoid robotics and advanced packaging [10][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating a value reassessment logic for the year 2026 [2][4]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from a favorable market environment, with a significant increase in trading volumes and a recovery in investment banking activities. The average daily stock trading volume reached 28,519.51 billion yuan, up 65% year-on-year [4][20]. - The insurance sector is projected to experience a year of value reassessment in 2026, driven by declining liability costs and an increase in equity allocation ratios. The report highlights that the P/EV valuation model for leading insurance companies is expected to improve as the growth potential of liabilities becomes more apparent [4][17]. - The brokerage sector is currently in a phase of fundamental and valuation mismatch, with a recommendation to focus on firms with strong competitive positions and earnings elasticity [4][9]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,758.92 with a weekly increase of 2.79%, while the non-bank index rose by 2.60% to 2,107.56. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported increases of 1.90%, 3.58%, and 4.44%, respectively [7][9]. Non-Bank Sector Key Data - As of January 9, 2026, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.88%, reflecting a weekly change of +1.98 basis points. The average daily stock trading volume for the week was 28,519.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 65.07% [17][20]. Non-Bank Sector News and Key Announcements - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a reward program for whistleblowers in securities and futures violations, with potential rewards up to 1 million yuan for significant cases [21]. - Ping An Life increased its stake in China Merchants Bank H shares to 20.07%, crossing the threshold for mandatory disclosure [22]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - For brokerages, the report suggests focusing on firms with strong competitive advantages, such as Guotai Junan, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities. It also highlights firms with significant earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities and Dongfang Securities [4][9]. - In the insurance sector, the report recommends companies like China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance, anticipating improved performance due to favorable market conditions [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, highlighting the potential for growth in leading companies due to their low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth attributes [6]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector has shown mixed performance, with air conditioning sales declining significantly while washing machine exports continue to grow. The report emphasizes the resilience of leading brands in navigating market challenges and capitalizing on emerging opportunities [5][6]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: the undervaluation and growth potential of leading white and black appliance companies, the technological advancements in core component manufacturers, and the strong demand for small appliances in international markets [6]. Summary by Sections Air Conditioning - In November 2025, the air conditioning industry produced 10.577 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 36.7%. Total sales reached 10.492 million units, down 31.8%, with domestic sales falling by 39.8% and exports declining by 25.6%. Midea led the market with a 36.2% share, followed by Gree at 19.5% [2][41]. Refrigerators - The refrigerator sector saw a slight overall decline, with production at 8.257 million units, down 3.9% year-on-year. Sales totaled 8.0531 million units, a decrease of 2.99%. Domestic sales dropped by 15.59%, while exports increased by 10.04% [2][43]. Washing Machines - The washing machine industry experienced growth, with production reaching 8.605 million units, up 8.2% year-on-year. Sales were 8.4619 million units, an increase of 7.61%. Domestic sales fell by 5.47%, but exports surged by 23.31% [3][47]. Industry Dynamics - Notable developments include the CES debut of the G-Rover robot vacuum by Stone Technology, showcasing innovative cleaning technology, and the acquisition of subsidiaries by Kaineng Health, indicating strategic expansion efforts [5][12][13]. Component Data - In November 2025, the sales of rotary compressors decreased by 13.6%, while the sales of refrigerator compressors increased by 7.2%. The report highlights the contrasting performance of different components within the appliance sector [23][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, with expectations for a recovery in sales and valuation improvements in 2026 [2][6]. Core Insights - The liquor market is undergoing a restructuring with a focus on balancing volume and price, and a potential turning point is anticipated in Q3 2026 [2][6]. - The report highlights the importance of consumer price index (CPI) as a key indicator for the consumer goods sector, predicting gradual improvements in food CPI throughout 2026 [2][6]. - The report recommends several high-quality liquor companies for long-term investment, including Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also suggesting attention to Wuliangye and other brands [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview of Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.12% increase last week, with liquor stocks rising by 2.46%, although it underperformed the broader market by 1.70 percentage points [5]. - Notable stock performances included Ziyuan Food (+33.97%), Qianwei Central Kitchen (+22.52%), and Anji Food (+18.34%) [5]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sub-sectors - The food and beverage industry lagged behind the Shenwan A index by 3.06 percentage points, with various sub-sectors underperforming, particularly beverages and dairy [33][34]. 3. Liquor Pricing Trends - As of January 10, 2026, the price of Moutai was reported at 1540 RMB for loose bottles, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 50 RMB, while the price for a case rose by 40 RMB to 1545 RMB [7][19]. - The report indicates that Moutai's pricing has found a bottom, reducing downward risks and suggesting a potential for price stability moving forward [7][19]. 4. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report emphasizes the shift in competitive strategies from price-based to quality-based approaches among consumer goods companies, with expectations for improved margins as raw material costs stabilize [2][6]. - Recommendations for consumer goods include Anjijia Food, Yili Group, and Tianwei Food, with a focus on the supply chain related to condiments and frozen foods [8]. 5. Dairy Industry Outlook - The dairy sector is expected to see an improved supply-demand balance in 2026, with growth potential in deep-processed products and low-temperature milk [8][9]. - Yili Group's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 11.3 billion, 12.2 billion, and 12.9 billion RMB, respectively, indicating a growth trajectory [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is stable for 2026, with emerging sectors expected to gain higher investment opportunities due to the implementation of major national strategies [3][4]. Core Insights - The construction and decoration industry saw a weekly increase of 5.72%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index [4][6]. - Key sectors with the highest weekly gains included steel structures (+14.51%), professional engineering (+11.49%), and ecological landscaping (+7.63%) [3][6]. - Notable companies with significant weekly stock performance included Zhite New Materials (+148.84%), China Nuclear Engineering (+34.50%), and Yaxiang Integration (+31.41%) [3][9]. Industry Performance - The construction industry outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 5.72% compared to the index's 2.79% [4][6]. - The top three sub-sectors for weekly performance were steel structures, professional engineering, and ecological landscaping, with corresponding company performances highlighted [6][9]. Major Changes in the Industry - The Ministry of Transport emphasized accelerating the construction of major railway projects and promoting multimodal transport [10][11]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, along with other departments, initiated actions to promote green consumption and low-carbon production methods [10][11]. Key Company Updates - Jinggong Steel Structure signed 698 contracts in 2026, with a total contract value of 24.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [12]. - Honglu Steel Structure reported a total new contract value of 29.102 billion yuan, with a steel structure output of 5.0207 million tons, marking an 11.3% year-on-year increase [12][13]. - The company Di Tie Design's subsidiary signed a contract worth 311 million yuan, accounting for 11.32% of its 2024 revenue [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [2][24]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with positive policy factors accumulating. Recent central government directives emphasize stabilizing the real estate market, indicating a potential shift in policy support [2][24]. - The report notes that the current valuation levels for some quality companies are at historical lows, making them attractive investment opportunities [2][24]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.784 million square meters, a decrease of 57.3% week-on-week. First and second-tier cities saw a 58.2% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 40.2% drop [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in January (up to January 9) decreased by 40.9% compared to the same period last year, with first and second-tier cities down 40.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down 44.2% [4][6]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.26 million square meters, reflecting a 12.6% increase week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions are down 23.3% compared to the same period last year [10][12]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, 15 cities launched 770,000 square meters of new homes, with total sales of 640,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83. The average monthly inventory turnover for the last three months is 21.6 months, a decrease of 0.24 months [18][24]. Policy and News Tracking - Recent policy updates include an extension of loan financing for white-listed projects from 2 years to 5 years, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2][24]. - Local governments are implementing various supportive measures, such as tax relief for property taxes in Shanghai and talent attraction policies in Nanjing, which include living subsidies and expanded housing rental support [24][27].

Group 1: U.S. Real Estate Market Challenges - The U.S. real estate market is currently facing a significant contradiction, primarily due to insufficient demand, with supply shortages being secondary[2] - As of January 2025, the average monthly cost of homeownership is $3,060, accounting for 43.2% of household income, significantly higher than the $2,227 monthly rental cost[2] - To bring homeownership costs down to rental levels, mortgage rates would need to decrease from the current 6.2% to 3.7%[2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Impact on Housing Demand - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates 1-2 times in 2026, but the long-term interest rates may not decline significantly due to resilient consumer spending and other economic factors[3] - The mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is projected to remain around 4.0% by the end of 2026, limiting the potential for substantial reductions in mortgage rates[3] Group 3: Trump's Real Estate Policies - Trump's administration has proposed five key policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market, including transferable mortgages and a ban on large institutional purchases of single-family homes[4] - However, the effectiveness of these policies is questionable, as only about 1% of U.S. homes are owned by large institutional investors, and the proposed measures may have limited impact on demand[4]