宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.03 2025-06-09 特朗普关税一波三折，市场情绪反复摇摆 [Table_Authors] ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 特朗普关税受阻，对全球风险资产有所提振，但关税博弈一波三折，避险情绪跟随 摇摆。美国经济边际下行，但长期通胀预期进一步上升，货币政策前瞻性指引依然 模糊，但是我们预计降息预期会进一步收窄。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 求 | | --- | | 1. | 美国：经济边际走弱，长期通胀预期回升 3 | | --- | --- | | 2. | 欧洲：经济景气度略有上行 5 | | 3. | 美联储继续模糊化前瞻性指引，欧央行 6 月大概率降息 6 | 究 宏 观 周 报 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。上周（2025.5.23-2025.5.30），全球大类资产价 格中，主要经济体股市分化明显。发达市场股票指数上涨 1.67%， 新兴市场股票指数下跌 0.93%。大宗商品价格均下跌，南华商品指 数下跌 1.62%，IPE 布油期货下跌 1.74%，伦敦 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Innovent Biologics with a target price of HK$90.10, up from a previous target of HK$62.50 [2][10]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics showcased its strong oncology R&D capabilities at the 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting, with eight studies selected for oral presentation, highlighting the efficacy and safety of IBI363 and IBI343 in various cancer types [3][15][16]. - The data presented for IBI363 in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) indicates its potential as a backbone therapy for next-generation immuno-oncology treatments, demonstrating robust tumor responses and long-term survival benefits [4][16]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Innovent Biologics are set at RMB 11.86 billion for 2025, with a growth rate of 26% compared to the previous year, and expected to reach RMB 18.17 billion by 2027 [10][13]. - The company is projected to turn profitable in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 384 million, and further growth to RMB 1.77 billion by 2027 [10][13]. Clinical Data Highlights - IBI363 monotherapy showed a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 9.3 months in advanced NSCLC, outperforming standard therapies [5][19]. - In MSS-type colorectal cancer patients, IBI363 demonstrated a median overall survival (mOS) of 16.1 months, significantly longer than the typical 9-10 months seen with current therapies [8][20]. - The efficacy of IBI363 in treating acral and mucosal melanoma was also notable, achieving a confirmed objective response rate (ORR) of 23.3% in a historically difficult-to-treat population [22].

Investment Rating - The report provides an "Outperform" rating for the industry, expecting a relative increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 12-18 months [14][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices are fluctuating, and with the onset of the rainy season, water inflow for hydropower may improve, potentially benefiting hydropower output in the coming week [3][4]. - In the week of June 3-6, Huaneng Power International saw a 0.7% increase, while Huadian Power International and China Yangtze Power experienced slight declines of 0.3% and 0.7% respectively. China Longyuan Power Group H increased by 5%, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.1% and the ChiNext Index by 2.3% [4]. - The report notes that in May, Guodian Changyuan Electric Power and China Longyuan Power Group showed improved power generation compared to the first four months of the year, indicating a positive trend in power demand [4]. - The report cites significant growth in global and Chinese renewable energy, with a projected increase of 590 million kilowatts in global renewable energy capacity in 2024, of which China will contribute 374 million kilowatts, accounting for 86.3% of the national new capacity [4]. - By the end of April, China's renewable energy capacity reached 2.02 billion kilowatts, with wind and solar power totaling 1.53 billion kilowatts, and a target for new energy utilization rate to be no less than 90% by 2027 [4]. - The average power outage time for urban and rural users in China is expected to decrease significantly by 2024, with major cities achieving an average outage time below 1 hour [4]. Summary by Sections Hydropower and Coal Market - The report anticipates an increase in hydropower output due to the rainy season, which may stabilize coal prices, particularly futures [3][4]. - The electricity prices in regions like Guangdong and Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai will depend on hydropower output [4]. Renewable Energy Development - The report emphasizes the rapid development of renewable energy in China, with a year-over-year increase of 17.3% in generation [4]. - Jiangsu province has initiated a long-term trial operation of its power spot market, with new energy capacity reaching 101 million kilowatts, representing 46% of the province's total capacity [4]. Infrastructure Developments - The report mentions the successful grid connection of Shandong's ultra-supercritical coal-fired unit, which is expected to generate 10 billion kilowatt-hours annually, impacting local coal consumption and electricity prices [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, targeting a price of HK$269.70 from a current price of HK$214.40 [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the ADC industry, with a robust pipeline of 12 self-developed ADC candidates, 7 of which are in clinical development, and aims to become China's equivalent of Daiichi Sankyo [3][8]. - The company has established significant global partnerships, including collaborations with BioNTech and others, with a total transaction value exceeding US$6 billion, enhancing its competitive edge in the ADC market [4][22]. - The management team is highly internationalized and experienced, focusing on unmet clinical needs and demonstrating strong operational efficiency [6][19]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY25-27 are estimated at RMB 9.75 billion, RMB 11.7 billion, and RMB 16.1 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be negative in the initial years but improving towards FY27 [7]. - The company utilizes a risk-adjusted discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, with a WACC of 10.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.5% [7]. Pipeline and Development - The company has a diverse ADC pipeline targeting various cancers, including DB-1303 (HER2 ADC) and DB-1311 (B7-H3 ADC), with significant clinical progress and potential market opportunities [8][31]. - DB-1303 is expected to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) to the FDA in 2025, with a peak sales potential of US$2 billion, while DB-1311 is also advancing in clinical trials with promising data [31][32]. Strategic Collaborations - The company has formed strategic alliances with major pharmaceutical companies, enhancing its research capabilities and market reach, including a notable partnership with BioNTech for ADC development [22][26]. - The collaborations are expected to accelerate the development of ADC therapies and maximize their global value [24][26]. Management and Expertise - The management team includes industry veterans with extensive experience in drug development and investment, which supports the company's strategic direction and operational efficiency [19][21]. - The company benefits from a scientific advisory board composed of renowned ADC experts, further strengthening its research and development capabilities [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical industry, specifically recommending innovative drugs and increasing focus on Pharma [1][3]. Core Insights - The report expresses a positive outlook on innovative drugs, highlighting the potential for revaluation in Pharma transitioning from generics to innovative products. Key companies mentioned include Jiangsu Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group, Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical, Huadong Medicine, and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group [6][27]. - The report emphasizes the promising performance of Biopharma/Biotech companies with innovative pipelines, such as Innovent Biologics, CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical, Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals, and Betta Pharmaceuticals. It also notes the improving profit growth of CXO companies like Wuxi Biologics Cayman, WuXi AppTec, and WuXi XDC Cayman [6][27]. - Recent business development (BD) activities are frequent, indicating strong multinational demand for Chinese innovative drug assets, which outweighs geopolitical risks. This trend supports the stable logic of innovative drug globalization [28]. Summary by Sections - **Innovative Drugs and Pharma Focus**: The report continues to favor innovative drugs and suggests attention to Pharma companies that are transitioning from generics to innovative products. Companies like Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, and others are highlighted for their potential [6][27]. - **Market Performance**: In the first week of June 2025, the A-Shares pharmaceutical sector performed in line with the overall market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.1% and the SW Pharmaceutical and Biological Technology index also increasing by 1.1% [29]. The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector's premium relative to all A-Shares is at a normal level, with a current relative premium rate of 86.84% [20][29]. - **Hong Kong and U.S. Market Performance**: The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector outperformed the market, with the Hang Seng Healthcare index rising by 4.1% and the Biological Technology index increasing by 5.3%. In contrast, the U.S. pharmaceutical sector performed similarly to the broader market, with the S&P 500 healthcare sector rising by 1.3% [30].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary consumption sector, including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, and many others [1]. Core Insights - The snacks sector has shown increased prosperity this week, with stock price volatility rising as some new consumption companies approach share release dates [4][10]. - The luxury goods sector, particularly gold and jewelry, has continued to perform well, driven by stable gold prices and brand upgrades [18]. - The sportswear sector has experienced divergence, with Lululemon's earnings slightly exceeding expectations but facing a significant stock price drop due to lowered guidance [19]. - The cosmetics sector has seen a decline, with unresolved issues affecting stock prices, while high-end international brands have performed well [19]. - Most discretionary consumption sectors are still valued below their historical five-year averages, indicating potential investment opportunities [20]. Sector Performance Review - Weekly performance rankings: Snacks > Pet > Luxury Goods > Credit Card > U.S. Hotel > Gambling > Cosmetics > Sportswear, with snacks and pet sectors outperforming the MSCI China index [14]. - Monthly performance rankings: Luxury Goods > Pet > Gambling > Credit Card > Snacks > U.S. Hotel > Cosmetics > Sportswear, with only cosmetics and sportswear underperforming [15]. - Year-to-date performance rankings: Luxury Goods > Pet > Snacks > Cosmetics > Credit Card > U.S. Hotel > Sportswear > Gambling, with luxury goods, pet, snacks, cosmetics, and credit card sectors outperforming [16]. Valuation Analysis - As of June 6, 2025, expected P/E ratios for various sectors indicate that most are below their five-year averages, with the sportswear sector at 15.5x (76% of its average), luxury goods at 21.8x (61%), and snacks at 25.7x (40%) [11][20].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary and staples sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance relative to the market [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the gold and jewelry sector, while cosmetics and snacks are experiencing adjustments. It notes that luxury goods, particularly gold and jewelry stocks, are among the top performers this week [2]. - Key companies such as Pop Mart have been included in the FTSE China 50 Index, which is expected to enhance their visibility and investment appeal [3]. - The report also mentions various new product launches in the food and beverage sector, indicating innovation and market responsiveness [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Focus - Companies rated "Outperform" include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Midea Group, and Haier Smart Home among others, reflecting a strong investment sentiment towards these stocks [1]. Weekly Performance - In the food and beverage sector, top performers include CHAGEE (+16.3%) and underperformers include Xiaocaiyuan (-5.1%). In the designer toys sector, Pop Mart (+11.1%) and MINISO (+5.8%) showed strong gains. The home appliance sector saw Marssenger (+5.0%) leading, while Midea Group (-7.5%) faced declines [4][9]. Industry News - Notable industry developments include BLOKEES entering the Mexican market and Luckin Coffee launching a new product in collaboration with SpongeBob SquarePants. Additionally, the Jiangsu home appliance trade-in subsidy platform has been upgraded to enhance consumer engagement [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company, with a target price of Rmb66.00 based on a current price of Rmb40.93 [2][5]. Core Insights - The baijiu industry is experiencing intensified differentiation, with national and regional leaders demonstrating resilience. This adjustment marks a shift from incremental expansion to stock optimization, expected to lead to a new pattern characterized by "high-end leadership and regional integration" [3][11]. - The company is recognized as a leader in ecological baijiu, holding a core position in the popular price band within Anhui Province. Its unique brewing water source contributes to its ecological taste, allowing it to avoid traditional strong flavor competition. The company has achieved the highest market share in the popular price band in the province, with over 80% coverage in townships [12][3]. - The growth of the company's cave collection series continues, with a significant increase in its revenue share. From 2015 to 2023, the company's total revenue and net profit grew at CAGRs of +11.1% and +20.1%, respectively. In FY24, total revenue and net profit are projected to increase by 8.5% and 13.4% year-on-year, respectively [13][4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin for FY24 are expected to be 73.9% and 35.3%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points and 1.21 percentage points. This is attributed to strong sales of high-end products and effective cost control [14][4]. - The company announced a dividend yield of 3.7% for FY24, with a payout ratio of 46.3%, indicating potential for further increases in long-term investment value. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are Rmb74 billion, Rmb79 billion, and Rmb84 billion, with corresponding net profits of Rmb27 billion, Rmb28 billion, and Rmb29 billion [15][5].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 8 Jun 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 宽幅震荡升级在即，继续回避微盘股和新消费风险 Broad Consolidation About to Intensify; Remain Cautious on Micro-Caps and New Consumer Names 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为当前市场处于宽幅震荡中，回调仍未结束，尤其需要规避短期过热的A股小微盘股及港股新消费板 块。本周一，受中美贸易摩擦影响，恒生指数早盘一度跌近2.7%，恒生科技最多跌3.1%，两者从5月高点分别累计 回撤5.2%、8.9%。这波下跌充分释放了市场对中美贸易不确定性的担忧，因此市场进入宽幅震荡以来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for AliHealth with a target price of HKD 5.42 per share [2][21]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 30.60 billion for FY3/25, reflecting a growth of 13.2%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 1.95 billion, which is a 35.6% increase, leading to a net profit margin of 6.4% [3][15]. - The pharmaceutical self-operated business generated revenue of RMB 26.12 billion (+10.0%), while the e-commerce platform business saw a significant increase to RMB 3.59 billion (+54.0%) due to the consolidation of health advertising business [15][16]. - The healthcare and digital services segment reported a revenue decline to RMB 890 million (-7.6%) due to operational adjustments [16]. Revenue and Profitability Analysis - In the second half of FY3/25, the company achieved revenue of RMB 16.32 billion (+16.0%), driven by the pharmaceutical self-operated business, which grew 13.9% YoY [4][17]. - The gross margin for the fiscal year was 24.3%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points, with stable operating expense ratios [18]. Future Growth Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY26 and FY27 are projected at RMB 33.42 billion and RMB 36.14 billion, representing YoY growth of 9.2% and 8.1%, respectively [20]. - Adjusted net profit for FY26 and FY27 is expected to be RMB 2.32 billion and RMB 2.64 billion, with growth rates of 18.8% and 13.7% [20]. Valuation - The DCF valuation estimates the company's equity value at HKD 87.12 billion, corresponding to a target price of HKD 5.42 per share, based on a WACC of 8.3% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.5% [21].