研究报告 Research Report 30 Apr 2025 怡合达 Yiheda Automation (301029 CH) 一季度业绩回暖，毛利率显著改善 Earnings Started to Rise in 1Q25, Gross Margin Recovered [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb22.00 目标价 Rmb27.90 HTI ESG 4.0-4.0-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 Rmb13.95bn / US$1.91bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$32.67mn 发行股票数目 634.20mn 自由流通股 (%) 36% 1 年股价最高最低值 Rmb31.80-Rmb16.68 注：现价 Rmb22.00 为 2025 年 04 月 29 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for companies like Haidilao, China Feihe, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed trend in the cost indices of six categories of consumer goods, with spot cost indices for beer, frozen food, dairy products, seasonings, instant noodles, and soft drinks showing changes of +2.69%, +1.67%, +1.09%, -0.12%, -0.18%, and -1.58% respectively, while futures cost indices showed changes of -3.78%, +1.38%, +0.46%, -1.64%, -1.64%, and -2.61% respectively [36]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 2.69% compared to last month, while the futures index decreased by 3.78%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.08% and the futures index by -5.24% [12][37]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.12%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. The price of soybeans has been rising due to limited domestic supply and decreased imports [16][38]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 1.09%, and the futures index increased by 0.46%. Fresh milk prices have stabilized at 3.08 yuan per kilogram, with oversupply continuing to pressure prices [19][39]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles decreased by 0.18%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. Palm oil prices have fallen due to increased production and inventory accumulation [24][40]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index for frozen food increased by 1.67%, and the futures index increased by 1.38%. Vegetable prices have decreased significantly due to increased supply [28][41]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks decreased by 1.58%, and the futures index decreased by 2.61%. Prices are under pressure due to weak demand and capacity expansion [32][42].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the companies discussed, but it highlights the competitive landscape and market positions of the firms involved [2][3]. Core Insights - Ant Group's acquisition of a 50.55% stake in Yaocai Securities has led to an 82% surge in Yaocai's stock price, while Futu Holdings experienced a 6.4% decline followed by a 2.1% recovery [1]. - Futu has over 50% market share in the Hong Kong retail securities brokerage business, attributed to its diverse product offerings, zero-commission model, and strong user experience [2][3]. - The competitive landscape in the Hong Kong securities market is described as saturated, with Futu's established market position making it difficult for new entrants like Yaocai to gain significant market share despite potential enhancements from Ant Group's involvement [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Hong Kong securities market is characterized by intense competition among three main types of service providers: Chinese online brokers, international online brokers, and traditional banks and brokers [2]. - As of the end of 2024, Futu's market penetration in Hong Kong exceeded 50%, supported by its early entry and licensing advantages [2]. Competitive Analysis - Futu offers commission-free trading for Hong Kong stocks, while Yaocai charges a fee of 0.0668% on transaction amounts, with a minimum charge of 50 HKD or 6.5 USD [2][3]. - Futu's product range is broader, including services for various international markets and asset classes, while Yaocai's offerings are more limited [3]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the competitive dynamics in the Hong Kong market are unlikely to change significantly in the short term due to Futu's established advantages [3]. - Although Ant Group's acquisition may enhance Yaocai's service offerings, the report indicates that gaining market share will remain a challenge for Yaocai in the face of Futu's strong position [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning, with a target price of HK$16.00, indicating a potential upside of 6.5% from the current price of HK$15.00 [2][12]. Core Insights - Li Ning's 1Q25 performance was in line with expectations, with a focus on product category expansion in 2025, which is designated as an investment year for the company [1][6]. - The company anticipates flat revenue growth for 2025, with a high single-digit net profit margin, as it invests heavily in brand partnerships and product development around the upcoming Olympic Games [6][12]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the running category, with over 20% growth, while basketball and sports lifestyle categories are experiencing declines [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 1Q25, Li Ning's revenue growth was low single-digit, with direct channel sales declining due to a reduction in the number of directly managed stores [3][10]. - The company achieved a sell-through rate of approximately 5X in inventory to sales ratio, with improvements in discount rates across various channels [3][10]. Product Development - Li Ning's retail sales mix for 2024 shows running (28%), fitness (15%), basketball (21%), and casual (35%) categories, with respective growth rates of 25%, 6%, -21%, and -6% [4][11]. - New product launches are planned across all categories for 2025, including specialized running shoes and basketball models, with significant sell-out rates reported for certain lines [4][11][12]. Market Strategy - The company has secured partnerships with the Chinese Olympic Committee and plans to enhance its brand presence through sponsorships and collaborations with sports stars [6][12]. - Li Ning's channel adjustments are nearing completion, positioning the company for a potential brand upcycle post-2025 [7][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 18.62, down from a previous target of RMB 23.76 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face revenue of RMB 5.16 billion in 2024, a decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit of RMB 610 million, down 41.3%, primarily due to pressure on raw material prices and an asset impairment of RMB 218 million [2][11]. - For Q1 2025, revenue is projected at RMB 1.49 billion, an increase of 0.98%, with a net profit of RMB 250 million, up 5.68%, indicating improved profitability with a gross profit margin of 37.42% [2][11]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2025 and 2026 at RMB 0.98 and RMB 1.10, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 1.21 [2][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2024 is expected to be RMB 5.16 billion, reflecting a 6.6% decline, while net profit is anticipated to be RMB 610 million, a 41.3% decrease due to raw material price pressures and asset impairments [2][11]. - In Q1 2025, revenue is projected to rise to RMB 1.49 billion, a 0.98% increase, with net profit expected to reach RMB 250 million, marking a 5.68% growth [2][11]. Raw Material and CDMO Business - The raw material and intermediate prices are under short-term pressure, but there is optimism for upward flexibility in the future [2][11]. - The CDMO business is expanding, with 2024 revenue expected to be RMB 3.87 billion, a decrease of 5.1%, and a significant focus on emerging fields [3][11]. Financial Forecasts - The financial forecasts indicate a revenue increase to RMB 5.68 billion in 2025, followed by RMB 6.14 billion in 2026, and RMB 6.59 billion in 2027 [4][11]. - The net profit is expected to recover to RMB 880 million in 2025, RMB 985 million in 2026, and RMB 1.08 billion in 2027, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company continues to experience rapid growth, with a significant increase in electrophysiology surgeries and potential growth in peripheral products due to centralized procurement [1][5]. - The target price has been adjusted to 504.27 CNY, reflecting a 40% upside from the current price of 433.06 CNY [1][5]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 2,066 million CNY, representing a 25.2% increase, and a net profit of 673 million CNY, up 26.1% [3][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show revenue of 564 million CNY, a 23.93% increase, and a net profit of 183 million CNY, up 30.69% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted to 9.34 CNY for 2025 and 15.89 CNY for 2027 [5]. Business Performance - The company has seen a 50% increase in three-dimensional electrophysiology surgeries, with over 15,000 procedures completed in 2024 [5]. - The revenue from electrophysiology products is expected to reach 440 million CNY, a 19.73% increase [5]. - The coronary intervention revenue is projected at 1,054 million CNY, reflecting a 33.30% growth [5]. Market Position - The company has become the first globally to offer a comprehensive solution for three-dimensional pulsed ablation, including various approved products [5]. - International business has shown strong growth, with overseas revenue reaching 280 million CNY, a 19.75% increase, and a 45.88% growth in self-owned brands [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 13.08, compared to the current price of RMB 9.96 [1][6][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance due to improved wind conditions, with onshore and offshore wind utilization hours increasing by 152 and 421 hours year-on-year, respectively [1][6][13]. - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 14.56 billion, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.79 billion, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year [6][13]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows promising results with revenue of RMB 3.1 billion, up 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 750 million, up 42.8% year-on-year, driven by strong wind resources [6][13]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates that the company’s revenue is expected to grow from RMB 14.56 billion in 2024 to RMB 18.44 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.6% [4][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 2.79 billion in 2024 to RMB 3.73 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 13.1% [4][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from RMB 1.00 in 2024 to RMB 1.34 in 2027 [4][7]. Future Growth Potential - The company has a robust pipeline of future projects, including a combined heat and power (CHP) project with an expected internal rate of return (IRR) of 12.55% for Phase I and 17.73% for Phase II, projected to commence in 2026 and 2027, respectively [6][14]. - The offshore wind project in Changle J Zone is expected to be operational by early 2027, with an IRR of 5.03% [6][14]. - The company plans to initiate a mid-term dividend of no less than 10% in 2025, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns while pursuing growth [6][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of 28.39 RMB, based on a 17x PE for 2025 [4][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth, with 2024 revenue projected at 5.89 billion RMB (+10.12%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 0.78 billion RMB (+27.61%) [4][12]. - The veterinary medicine segment is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue, with a projected 2024 revenue of 2.02 billion RMB (+10.0%) [13][14]. - The company is enhancing its global operations, with products sold in 115 countries and regions, establishing a strong position in the global pharmaceutical manufacturing industry [14] Financial Summary - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2027 are as follows: - 2024 Revenue: 5.89 billion RMB (+10.1%) - 2024 Net Profit: 0.78 billion RMB (+27.6%) - 2025 Revenue: 6.60 billion RMB (+12.1%) - 2025 Net Profit: 0.93 billion RMB (+19.5%) - 2026 Revenue: 7.52 billion RMB (+14.0%) - 2026 Net Profit: 1.12 billion RMB (+20.0%) - 2027 Revenue: 8.61 billion RMB (+14.4%) - 2027 Net Profit: 1.32 billion RMB (+17.8%) [3][4][12]. Business Segments - The pharmaceutical raw materials segment is projected to generate 2.48 billion RMB in 2024, benefiting from high demand for macrolide antibiotics [13]. - The veterinary medicine business is expanding, with significant sales growth and increased capacity utilization for key products [13][14]. Global Operations - The company is focusing on globalization, with over 70 active pharmaceutical ingredients and intermediates expected to be produced and sold in 2024 [14]. - Established sales channels in various countries, including India, Netherlands, and Spain, enhancing its international market presence [14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Chow Tai Fook, but it discusses expectations for gross profit margin and operating profit margin improvements, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1][9][11]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's overall retail sales value (RSV) declined by 11.6% year-on-year in FY25Q4, with the Mainland market and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets experiencing declines of 10.4% and 20.7% respectively, primarily due to macroeconomic factors and high gold prices affecting consumer sentiment [1][10]. - Despite the decline in same-store sales volume, the company successfully increased the RSV share of high-margin products through product mix optimization and flexible pricing adjustments, leading to an increase in same-store average selling price (ASP) [1][9][11]. - The ASP for gold jewelry in Mainland China rose to HK$6,400, a 14.3% increase from the previous year, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it increased to HK$8,600, a 14.7% rise [1][9]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In FY25Q4, same-store RSV in the Mainland market decreased by 10.4%, with direct-managed and franchised stores seeing declines of 13.2% and 8.7% respectively. The Hong Kong and Macau markets recorded a 22.5% decline in same-store RSV [2][10]. - The high gold prices have suppressed consumer willingness to purchase gold jewelry, impacting sales of gram-weight products [2][10]. Product Strategy - The company accelerated the introduction of set-price products, achieving a 19% share of total RSV in FY2025, exceeding the initial target of 15%. This share is expected to rise to 20%-23% in FY2026 [3][11]. - The RSV share of set-price products in the gold jewelry category increased from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, surpassing management expectations [3][11]. Store Network Optimization - Chow Tai Fook closed 896 stores in the Mainland market during FY2025, primarily underperforming locations, with a total of 6,423 stores globally as of FY25Q4 [5][12]. - The company opened two new image stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, achieving higher productivity levels compared to closed stores, with average monthly sales of approximately HK$1 million [5][12]. Collaborative Products - In March 2025, Chow Tai Fook launched a co-branded gold jewelry collection with Chiikawa, featuring nine designs that sold out quickly, indicating strong market demand for innovative products [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Overweight" [1]. Core Insights - The impact of US pharmaceutical tariffs on Chinese companies is limited, with a focus on domestic substitution, innovative drugs, and domestic demand [35][36]. - The US pharmaceutical trade deficit is expanding, primarily driven by imports from Europe, with a projected deficit of 118.6 billion USD in 2024, a 35% year-on-year increase [37]. - If tariffs are implemented, large multinational pharmaceutical companies may face significant challenges, but the transfer of the industry chain back to the US is unlikely to happen quickly due to high costs and long construction cycles [38]. Summary by Sections 1. US Pharmaceutical Market Trade Deficit - The US pharmaceutical trade deficit is projected to reach 118.6 billion USD in 2024, with imports at approximately 213 billion USD and exports at 94.4 billion USD, marking a 20% increase in imports and a 5% increase in exports year-on-year [6][37]. - The US maintains a trade surplus with China in pharmaceuticals, with imports from China accounting for only 1.5% of total pharmaceutical imports [36][16]. 2. Potential Tariff Impacts - The report discusses the potential for tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with Trump threatening a 25% tariff to encourage domestic production [17][19]. - Most pharmaceutical sectors are currently exempt from tariffs, but medical devices and some excipients are facing increased tariffs [19][20]. 3. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data indicates that tariffs have had a limited impact on China's pharmaceutical exports to the US, with exports continuing to grow despite previous tariff threats [22][23]. - The report suggests that tariffs may benefit domestic substitution efforts in China, particularly in medical devices and innovative drugs, while also reshaping export and domestic sales patterns [25][28].