提振消费、扩大内需 [Table_Authors] 纪尧(分析师) 中国提振消费的战略选择与国际经验 本报告导读： "提振消费、扩大内需"已成为推动经济持续健康高质量发展、应对外部挑战、破 解内部结构性矛盾的关键之举。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] [战略定位：提振消费成为未来五年首要目标。在当前复杂多变的国内外 环境下，"提振消费、扩大内需"已从周期性政策选项上升为国家战略核 心任务。这一转变源于三重驱动：一是国家层面"十五五"规划顶层设 计明确将扩大内需作为战略基点；二是外需不确定性高企倒逼增长动能 切换；三是国内居民消费率偏低、储蓄率较高、服务供给与消费升级需 求错配等结构性矛盾亟待破解。 现状研判：总量扩大与结构升级并存，但国际差距明显。过去十年，我 国消费市场呈现三大积极态势：一是消费替代投资成为经济增长源动力， 最终消费对 GDP 贡献率超 50%；二是消费结构加速升级，服务消费占比 提升至 46.15%，绿色智能消费、数字消费快速崛起；三是城乡消费差距 逐步缩小，农村居民人均消费支出占城镇比重达 56.48%。 国际经验：提振消费需筑牢制度保障、收入基础、供给创新、预期管理 四大支 ...

【新材料产业周报】独山子石化 2025 年共生产 POE 产品 近 6 万吨，因势新材等多家新材料公司完成融资 产业研究中心 摘要： 产业观察 [table_Header]2026.02.02 | [Table_Authors] | 钟浩(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38038445 | | | zhonghao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522120008 | | | 肖洁(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38674660 | | | xiaojie3@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513080002 | | | 鲍雁辛(分析师) | | | 0755-23976830 | | | baoyanxin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513070005 | [Table_Report] 往期回顾 四大增长极经济与产业洞察报告（2025） 2026.01.29 国家能源局批准七项氢能行标 2026.01.28 [Table_Summary] 产业发展动态：（以下均来源于化工新材料公众号） 独山 ...

国泰海通晨报 2026 年 02 月 02 日 "缩表+降息"：新美联储主席的政策主张 沃什最令人瞩目的政策主张是"降息+缩表"。他认为美联储需要为通胀负责，而危机后持续 QE 是导致通胀的主要原因，因而要通过 QT 控制通胀，而一旦通胀风险和政策扭曲被纠正，就可以为降息 创造空间，沃什称此为"实用的货币主义"。 上述政策主张的背后是一场货币政策的机制改革。沃什曾多次批评美联储的巨额资产负债表，认 为 QE 扭曲了市场激励：2008 年金融危机美联储转向"充足储备机制"，向银行释放大量超额准备 金，然后通过向准备金支付利息来控制利率走廊，这使得银行可以"躺平吃利息"，向实体经济的放 贷意愿下降，资金"脱实向虚"。沃什主张通过缩表降低银行的准备金规模，提升银行的放贷意愿， 扭转后危机时代的充足储备机制，并向危机前的"紧缺储备机制"过渡。 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 梁中华(分析 ...

基金评价 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.02 | [Table_Authors] | 庄梓恺(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-23219370 | | | zhuangzikai@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040038 | 国泰海通证券开放式基金周报(20260202) 建议均衡偏成长风格配置，重视科技成长风格基金，兼顾大 金融、顺周期等资产 本报告导读： A 股震荡，石油石化、通信和煤炭板块表现较优，部分重仓有色金属、通信等板块 的基金表现较优。建议均衡偏成长风格配置，重视科技成长风格基金，兼顾大金融、 顺周期等资产。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 国泰海通证券：ETF 数据周报（2026.02.01） 2026.02.01 国泰海通证券：基金数据周报（2026.02.01） 2026.02.01 国泰海通证券：ETF 数据周报（2026.01.25） 2026.01.25 国泰海通证券开放式基金周报(20260125) 2026.01.25 国泰海通证券：基金数据周报（2026.01.25） 2026.01.25 ...

本周全球焦点在美联储，其行为表现为一"不动"和一"动"，"不动"之处在于 FOMC 暂停降息，但是表态略微偏鹰，资产价格开始调整，其后一"动"在于美联储新主 席落地，"沃什时刻"导致贵金属为代表的市场大幅调整，但我们认为其只是短期市 场过度炒作后调整的导火索，而非根本原因，黄金等价格调整后或仍有支撑。 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | 宏 观 研 究 [Table_Report] 相关报告 "沃什时刻"是导火索，而非根本原因 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 周 报 [Table_Summary] 本周（2026.1.26-2026.2.1），美联储的政策表态与人事任命成为全 球焦点 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The cleanroom market is expanding due to increased investment in high-tech industries, benefiting companies like Yaxiang Integration, with related companies including Shenghui Integration and Bocheng Co., Ltd. [3][4] - The real estate market is showing signs of marginal improvement, with significant potential for transformation and development [5] Summary by Sections Cleanroom Industry - The growth in high-tech industry investments is driving the expansion of the cleanroom market, with Micron Technology planning to invest $24 billion in a NAND factory in Singapore over the next decade, which will include 700,000 square feet of cleanroom space [4] - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) predicts a 26.3% increase in the global semiconductor market by 2026, reaching $975 billion, further supporting the cleanroom industry's growth [4] - Yaxiang Integration's parent company reported a consolidated revenue of NT$9.5 billion (approximately RMB 2.1 billion) in December, a year-on-year increase of 165.2% [4] Real Estate Market - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 emphasized stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, including controlling inventory and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [5] - An article published on January 2, 2026, highlighted the importance of managing expectations in the real estate market, which has significant financial asset attributes and broad social implications [5] Recommended Companies - The report recommends Yaxiang Integration for the cleanroom sector, with related companies including Bocheng Co., Ltd. and Shenghui Integration [7] - Other sectors recommended include commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, and renewable energy, with specific companies highlighted for each sector [7]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 持仓略有提升，焦炭第一轮提价 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 王楠瑀(分析师) | 021-38032030 | wangnanyu@gtht.com | S0880525070029 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 我们认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在 25Q2，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，下行 风险充分释放。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《Q4 基金持仓持续回升，板块拐点确认》 2026.01.30 煤炭《地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有 望修复》2026.01.25 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][2] - The target price is set at 29.03 CNY per share [5][2] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a recovery in revenue and profit in 2026, despite short-term performance pressures [2] - The decline in profit for Q4 2025 has narrowed, indicating potential stabilization [2] - The company anticipates a significant drop in net profit for 2025, with estimates ranging from 308 million to 320 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 62.33% to 64.68% [11] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 6,806 million CNY, with a slight decline of 1.1% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is 803 million CNY, down 17.8% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is 1.59 CNY, with projections for 2025 at 0.61 CNY and 1.29 CNY for 2026 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 is 14.5%, expected to drop to 5.4% in 2025 before recovering to 11.1% in 2026 [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 37.62 for 2025 and 17.73 for 2026 [4] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is 11,574 million CNY [6] - The stock has traded within a range of 20.96 to 27.82 CNY over the past 52 weeks [6] - The current stock price is 22.88 CNY [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a later Chinese New Year in 2026, positively impacting Q1 sales [11] - New product developments, particularly in the konjac product line, are anticipated to drive growth [11] - The snack wholesale channel has shown rapid sales growth, exceeding 90 million CNY in September 2025 [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding" [6][13]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, creating opportunities for recovery in the real estate supply chain, with a focus on key home appliance companies' annual report forecasts [2][6]. - Key home appliance companies are showing significant profit growth, with notable increases in net profits for companies like Ecovacs and Ninebot, while others like Roborock are experiencing declines [3][4][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Key Home Appliance Company Forecasts - Ecovacs is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.7-1.8 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 111%-123% [3]. - Ninebot expects a net profit of 1.67-1.85 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54%-71% [3]. - Roborock anticipates a net profit of no less than 1.34 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3]. - Anfu Technology forecasts a net profit of 220-250 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29%-51% [3]. - TCL Electronics expects an adjusted net profit of 2.33-2.57 billion HKD in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45%-60% [4]. - Beiding Co. anticipates a revenue of 950 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Electronics, and Hisense Visual, which are expected to perform well due to stable operations and high dividends [6][7]. - The report highlights the potential for smart home appliances to drive growth, particularly for leading robotic vacuum companies like Roborock and Ecovacs [6]. - Companies like Ninebot and Anfu Technology are noted for their stable performance and upward potential, making them attractive investment options [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5][6]. Core Insights - The weekly average price of liquid oxygen and nitrogen has slightly increased, while the price of liquid argon continues its significant year-on-year upward trend. Rare gases are experiencing low-level fluctuations [2][5]. - Hangyang Group has won a bid for a nitrogen production equipment project at a refinery in West Africa, which is the largest refining project in the region with an annual crude oil processing capacity of 10 million tons and a total investment of approximately $6 billion [2][5]. - The successful trial operation of a high-pressure CO2 compressor by ShanGu CCS marks a significant breakthrough in key technology equipment for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China [2][5]. Price Trends - As of January 29, 2026, the weekly price data for gases is as follows: 1. Liquid Oxygen: Average price of 336 CNY/ton, up 0.9% month-on-month, down 0.6% year-on-year 2. Liquid Nitrogen: Average price of 364 CNY/ton, up 0.5% month-on-month, up 2% year-on-year 3. Liquid Argon: Average price of 1104 CNY/ton, down 3.83% month-on-month, up 144.83% year-on-year 4. Rare Gases: High-purity helium gas (cylinder): Average price of 80.21 CNY/cubic meter, down 5.32% month-on-month, down 17.85% year-on-year [5][6]. Industry Operating Rates - The average weekly operating load rate for China's industrial gas sector is 66.73%, a decrease of 1.88 percentage points month-on-month [4][9]. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Hangyang Co., Ltd. and ShanGu Power, with related stocks being Fostar and Zhongtai Co., Ltd. [5][6].