Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 德昌电机控股 (0179) [2][11] Core Views - The company has shown stable operations in the first three quarters of the 2025-2026 fiscal year, with future growth expected from its robotics and liquid cooling sectors [2][11] - Despite facing operational pressures in the Asia-Pacific region, the company is implementing vertical integration and increasing automation to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [11] - The company is well-positioned to leverage its deep technical expertise in motors to expand into humanoid robotics and liquid cooling solutions, which are anticipated to be significant growth areas [11] Financial Summary - Total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025-2026 was $2.73 billion, remaining flat year-on-year; automotive product revenue decreased by 2%, while industrial product revenue increased by 1% [11] - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28 for 2025, $0.33 for 2026, and $0.36 for 2027, with a target price of HKD 52.80 based on a 24x PE ratio for the 2025 fiscal year [11][12] - Projected total revenues are $3.648 billion for 2025, $3.718 billion for 2026, $4.060 billion for 2027, and $4.436 billion for 2028, with net profits expected to be $263 million for 2025 and growing to $338 million by 2028 [10][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The stock positions of active equity - hybrid funds decreased in Q4 2025, mainly due to active reduction. The allocation in the ChiNext continued to increase, and the actively increased positions were in the non - ferrous metals, communication, and non - banking finance industries [1][4] Summary by Directory 1. Position Analysis: Stock Positions Declined, Mostly Due to Active Reduction - **Overall Stock Position Decline**: The overall position of public offering equity funds decreased slightly compared to Q3 2025. The weighted - average position of equity funds was 86.47%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points from the previous quarter. The active reduction calculated by the CSI 800 index was also about 0.77%, indicating that the decline was mainly due to active reduction by fund managers [7] - **Nearly 60% of Funds Actively Reduced Positions**: In Q4 2025, about 42.53% of active equity - hybrid funds increased their positions, while 57.47% actively reduced positions [12] - **Public Offering Managers with Large Stock Position Changes**: Small and medium - sized public offering fund managers had large differences in overall positions. The top 5 heavy - position and light - position, and the top 5 position - increasing and position - reducing fund managers in Q4 2025 are listed in the report [14] 2. Heavy - Positioned Sector Analysis: ChiNext Allocation Continued to Increase - **ChiNext Allocation Increase**: Compared with the end of Q3 2025, the allocation of active equity - hybrid funds in the ChiNext increased by 1.32%, while the allocations in the main board, Science and Technology Innovation Board, and Beijing Stock Exchange decreased [17] - **Decline in Hong Kong Stock Allocation of Active Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen Funds**: As of December 31, 2025, the Hong Kong stock allocation of active Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen funds was about 26.67%, a decrease of 6.76 percentage points from the end of Q3 2025 [20] 3. Heavy - Positioned Stock Feature Analysis: Bias towards the Technology Sector, Considering Battery, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Liquor Industries - **Top 10 Heavy - Positioned Stocks**: The top 10 heavy - positioned stocks of active equity - hybrid funds at the end of Q4 2025 included technology stocks such as those related to the AI industry chain, as well as non - technology industry leaders like battery, non - ferrous metals, and liquor. The positions in some stocks decreased, while the holding values of optical module targets increased [23] - **Top 10 Stocks with Active Position - Increasing**: The top 10 stocks with active position - increasing in Q4 2025 were concentrated in high - end manufacturing fields such as electronics, power equipment, and optical modules, also considering non - technology sectors [27] 4. Heavy - Positioned Stock Style Analysis: "Herding" Degree Decreased, Tending towards Large - Cap Growth Style - **Decrease in "Herding" Degree**: The concentration of top stocks in terms of both holding value and heavy - position times decreased in Q4 2025, indicating a weakening of the "herding" effect [29] - **Tendency towards Large - Cap Growth Style**: Active equity - hybrid funds were more inclined to the large - cap growth style at the end of Q4 2025, with a slight decrease in the allocation of small - cap value assets [31] 5. Heavy - Positioned Industry Analysis: Actively Increase Positions in Non - Ferrous Metals, Communication, and Non - Banking, Reduce Positions in Media and Commerce and Retail - **Top Five Heavy - Positioned Industries**: At the end of Q4 2025, the top five heavy - positioned industries of active equity - hybrid funds were electronics, power equipment, communication, pharmaceutical biology, and non - ferrous metals. The proportion of electronics decreased, while those of communication and non - ferrous metals increased [32] - **Active Position - Adjustment in Industries**: Institutions actively increased positions in non - ferrous metals, communication, non - banking finance, etc., and reduced positions in media, commerce and retail, and pharmaceutical biology [33] 6. Large and Medium - Sized Public Offering Management Companies: Electronics Industry Becomes the Focus of Active Position - Increase and Reduction - **Industry Distribution of Heavy - Positioned Stocks**: The largest heavy - positioned industry of large and medium - sized public offering management companies at the end of Q4 2025 was still electronics. The power equipment and communication industries appeared 10 times, and the pharmaceutical biology and non - ferrous metals industries appeared 7 and 6 times respectively [37] - **Active Position - Adjustment by Companies**: In Q4 2025, large and medium - sized fund companies actively increased positions in non - ferrous metals, electronics, communication, and non - banking finance industries. The number of companies that first actively reduced positions in the electronics industry was the largest, indicating a large divergence among institutions on the electronics industry [39]

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The core viewpoint of the aviation industry report indicates that the demand for air travel in China remains strong, particularly during the Spring Festival travel season, with pre-sales already initiated for 2026 [3][5] - It is estimated that the passenger flow in China's civil aviation will grow by 5-6% year-on-year in 2025, with a cumulative increase of 17% compared to 2019 [3] - The report highlights that the airline industry is entering a low growth era, with structural changes in demand being a key issue, as the proportion of business travel remains below 2019 levels [3][4] Group 2: Netflix (NFLX.O) - The report on Netflix projects that the company's revenue for FY26-28 will be $51.1 billion, $57.6 billion, and $64.6 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.2%, 12.7%, and 12.0% [7] - Netflix's content amortization cost guidance for 2026 indicates a 10% increase year-on-year, with a focus on enhancing advertising revenue and content quality [9] - The company is expected to maintain a net profit margin of 20.1% in Q4 2025, with a significant increase in advertising revenue projected for 2026 [8][9] Group 3: BAIC Blue Valley (北汽蓝谷) - The report provides a first coverage of BAIC Blue Valley, giving it an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 11.49 yuan, driven by dual-brand synergy and a diversified product matrix [11][26] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 29 billion, 58.2 billion, and 88.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected net profit turning positive by 2027 [11][26] - BAIC Blue Valley's dual-brand strategy, focusing on the premium and luxury segments, is anticipated to drive revenue growth, with significant sales increases expected for its models [12][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, after excluding ETF-linked funds and duplicate holdings of internal funds, the scale of equity, bond, commodity, domestic other, QDII equity-mixed, QDII bond, QDII other, and FOF funds increased compared to the previous quarter, while the scale of hybrid and MOM funds decreased [1][6]. - As of December 31, 2025, the total public fund management scale (excluding money market funds) was approximately 22.66 trillion yuan, an increase of about 0.65 trillion yuan compared to September 30, 2025. After excluding the scale of ETF-linked funds invested in ETFs and holdings of internal funds, the total public fund scale (excluding money market funds) was about 21.68 trillion yuan, an increase of about 0.54 trillion yuan compared to September 30, 2025 [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Funds - As of the end of Q4 2025, excluding commodity and domestic other types of funds and the part of ETF-linked funds invested in ETFs, the total passive management product volume of fund companies was about 7.16 trillion yuan. Among them, the passive management scale of equity (including QDII) was about 5.48 trillion yuan, an increase of about 131.116 billion yuan compared to the end of Q1; the passive management scale of fixed income was about 1.68 trillion yuan, an increase of about 231.211 billion yuan compared to the end of Q1 [4][6]. - **Equity**: In Q4, 183 index equity funds were established in the public fund market, with a total issuance scale of about 81.679 billion yuan and an average issuance scale of about 446 million yuan, showing a significant decline in both the number and scale of new issuances compared to Q3 2025. In the top ten new products in terms of fundraising scale in Q4, 4 were broad-based funds, 3 were thematic index funds, and 3 were strategic index funds. In the Q4, ETF products tracking the CSI A500 index were favored by investors, and the scale of thematic ETF products tracking popular themes also increased rapidly [7]. - **Fixed Income**: In Q4 2025, 4 index bond funds were issued, with a total fundraising scale of 12.549 billion yuan, a significant decline compared to the previous quarter. In Q4, the scale of ongoing index bond funds increased against the trend, with over 57% of funds achieving positive growth. Some科创 bond ETF products and medium - and short - term policy financial bond products saw significant scale expansion [8]. Active Equity - Mixed Funds - As of December 31, 2025, the total scale of active equity - mixed funds in the market after excluding FOF products was about 4.40 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 156.297 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter [4][9]. - **Newly Issued Funds**: In Q4 2025, 106 active equity funds were established, with a total fundraising scale of about 60.218 billion yuan, accounting for 42.44% of equity funds. Since 2025, the active equity new - issuance market has continued to strengthen [9]. - **Ongoing Funds**: Currently, investors' investment sentiment towards active equity - mixed funds remains low. In Q4, only about 25% of active equity - mixed funds achieved scale expansion. Among high - position products, thematic products with clearer investment goals were more popular, and some stable - performing dividend - value style products or cycle - themed products also saw significant scale growth [9][10]. Active Bond Funds - As of December 31, 2025, the scale of active bond funds after excluding FOF products reached 9.31 trillion yuan, an increase of about 158.803 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter [4][11]. - **Newly Issued Funds**: In Q4 2025, 57 new products were issued, with a total fundraising scale of about 62.486 billion yuan. The top five active bond funds in terms of fundraising scale were all partial - bond products, and the fundraising scale of the top 5 did not exceed 5 billion yuan [11]. - **Ongoing Funds**: Since 2025, with the bull market in the equity market, the market recognition of fixed - income plus products has been significantly improved. In Q4, the scale growth of ongoing active fixed - income funds still mainly came from fixed - income plus products [11]. FOF - As of December 31, 2025, after excluding the duplicate part of FOF's holdings of internal funds, the scale of FOF in Q4 2025 was about 17.2836 billion yuan, continuing the growth trend compared to the previous quarter, but the scale growth still mainly came from newly issued products [4][12]. - **Newly Issued Funds**: In Q4 2025, 42 FOFs were established, an increase of 25 compared to Q3. The total fundraising scale was about 45.246 billion yuan, a significant increase of about 38.714 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter. The average fundraising scale in Q4 was about 1.077 billion yuan, an increase of 693 million yuan compared to the previous quarter [12]. - **Ongoing Funds**: High - performing medium - and low - position FOF products were still more popular among investors. The low - position ordinary FOF product Guotai Ruiyue 3 - month Holding under Guotai had the largest scale growth in Q4, with a growth of 2.619 billion yuan [12]. Other Products - As of December 31, 2025, after excluding the scale of ETF - linked funds invested in ETFs and holdings of internal funds, the total scale of other types of products in Q4 2025 was about 66.9156 billion yuan, an increase of about 12.5121 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter [4][13]. - Gold - themed ETF products and ETF - linked funds continued to rise significantly in Q4 due to the continuous increase in international gold prices. Silver - themed products also saw a significant increase in scale in Q4. In addition, inter - bank certificate of deposit products continued to attract investors' attention, with a total scale growth of 2.6553 billion yuan in Q4 [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to show significant revenue growth with a notable acceleration in net profit, indicating a high quality of growth and sustained potential for continued expansion [1]. - The financial forecast indicates a strong increase in total revenue from 868 million in 2023 to 2,200 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.1% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to rise from 193 million in 2023 to 637 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 32.8% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.46 yuan in 2023 to 1.52 yuan in 2027 [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 1,379 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.8% [3]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 366 million, with a year-on-year increase of 48.9% [3]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 21.3% in 2027 [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 48.92 in 2023 to 14.82 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3]. Market Data - The target price for the company's stock is set at 31.90 yuan, up from a previous target of 30.16 yuan [4]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 9,442 million [5]. - The stock has traded within a range of 16.17 to 28.55 yuan over the past 52 weeks [5]. Growth Drivers - The company is experiencing increased demand for its high-margin resistant dextrin products, which are contributing to profit growth [10]. - The expansion of production capacity and optimization of product structure are expected to alleviate capacity constraints and enhance profitability [10]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing health-conscious consumer trends, particularly with its alulose and prebiotic products [10].

全球布局领导者，光模块业务有望超预期 剑桥科技(603083) ——剑桥科技首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 余伟民(分析师) | 010-50949926 | yuweimin@gtht.com | S0880525040028 | | 王彦龙(分析师) | 010-83939775 | wangyanlong@gtht.com | S0880519100003 | | 黎明聪(分析师) | 0755-23976500 | limingcong@gtht.com | S0880523080008 | 本报告导读： 全球领先的光连接、宽带与无线解决方案企业； AI 快速发展下，光模块业务有望超 预期。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 3,087 | 3,652 | 4,593 | 11 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 9.57 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to capture new market opportunities through its AI education layout and expansion of core educational resources [2]. - Revenue growth is projected to be significant, with total revenue expected to reach 4.2 billion CNY, 5.72 billion CNY, and 7.6 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027 [16]. - The company is transitioning from traditional education services to a blend of education and technology, supported by strong partnerships with AI firms [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3.20 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 25.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from a loss of 50 million CNY in 2023 to a profit of 138 million CNY by 2027 [4]. - The company anticipates a gradual increase in gross margin, driven by optimized resource utilization and the introduction of AI education products [17]. Revenue Breakdown Forecast - The revenue from tuition and training fees is expected to grow steadily, with tuition fees for the Haidian and Chaoyang campuses set to increase [16]. - AI education product revenue is projected to reach 1 billion CNY by 2026, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [16][65]. - The overall revenue forecast includes contributions from various segments, with tuition fees expected to be 259.76 million CNY in 2024, growing to 489.58 million CNY by 2027 [18]. Strategic Developments - The company has established a joint venture with leading AI firms to develop and commercialize AI educational products, marking a significant step in its strategic transformation [58]. - The dual-track educational model aims to cater to diverse educational needs, enhancing the company's market reach and brand credibility [44]. - The partnership with state-owned enterprises is expected to strengthen governance and operational efficiency, providing a competitive edge in the education sector [41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to show significant revenue growth with a notable acceleration in net profit, indicating a high quality of growth and sustained potential for continued expansion [1]. - The financial forecast indicates a strong upward trend in both revenue and net profit over the next few years, with revenue projected to reach 13.79 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and net profit expected to reach 3.66 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.9% [3][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 8.68 billion yuan in 2023 to 22 billion yuan in 2027, with annual growth rates ranging from 19.8% to 32.6% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 1.93 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.37 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates between 27.3% and 48.9% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.46 yuan in 2023 to 1.52 yuan in 2027 [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 21.3% in 2027 [3]. Market Data - The company's target price has been raised to 31.90 yuan, up from a previous target of 30.16 yuan, reflecting a favorable valuation based on comparable company averages [4][10]. - The stock has shown a 52-week price range of 16.17 to 28.55 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 9.442 billion yuan [5]. Growth Drivers - The company is experiencing increased demand for its products, particularly high-margin resistant dextrin products, which are contributing to profit growth [10]. - The company is also expanding its production capacity and optimizing its product structure, which is expected to alleviate capacity constraints and enhance profitability [10]. - The introduction of high-margin customized products and the expansion into overseas markets are anticipated to drive future growth, particularly in the context of rising health-conscious consumer trends [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" with a target price of 161 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - Cambridge Technology is a global leader in optical connectivity, broadband, and wireless solutions, actively investing in high-end optical modules to capitalize on the rapid development of AI [3][17]. - The optical module business is expected to exceed expectations due to significant investments from North American cloud vendors, with the global optical module market projected to reach approximately 13 billion USD by 2025 and 16 billion USD by 2026 [18][67]. - The company has strengthened its North American presence through strategic acquisitions, enhancing its R&D and sales capabilities, which positions it well for future growth [17][30]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,087 million CNY in 2023 to 18,079 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 64.4% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 95 million CNY in 2023 to 3,307 million CNY by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 86.7% in 2027 [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.27 CNY in 2023 to 9.38 CNY by 2027 [5]. Business Overview - The company has three main product lines: telecommunications broadband products, wireless networks and small base stations, and high-speed optical modules, with broadband products contributing the largest revenue share [31]. - The company has established a global footprint with production and R&D facilities in various regions, including the U.S., Europe, and Malaysia, to meet the demands of its international customer base [46][50]. Market Trends - The North American market is experiencing a surge in capital expenditure driven by AI, with significant growth expected in the optical module sector as cloud vendors increase their investments [56][59]. - The demand for high-speed optical modules is anticipated to grow rapidly, with the company being one of the early developers of 400G/800G modules, positioning it favorably in the market [18][22]. Revenue Forecast - Revenue from high-speed optical components and modules is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 11.26 billion CNY in 2025 and 137.69 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 534% in 2026 [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 9.57 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to capture new market opportunities through its AI education layout and expansion of core educational resources [2]. - The financial forecast indicates significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 4.2 billion CNY, 5.72 billion CNY, and 7.6 billion CNY for 2025-2027, respectively [16]. - The company is transitioning from traditional education services to a blend of education and technology, supported by strong partnerships with AI firms [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3.20 billion CNY in 2024 to 7.60 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 36.3% [4]. - Net profit is expected to turn positive by 2025, reaching 12 million CNY, and further increasing to 138 million CNY by 2027 [4]. - The company’s gross margin is anticipated to improve significantly, reaching 44.2% by 2027 [18]. Company Overview - The company operates in the international education, quality education, and vocational education sectors, aiming to create a synergistic development model [23]. - It has established a dual-track educational model that combines international and domestic curricula, enhancing its appeal to diverse student demographics [42]. AI Education Strategy - The company is actively developing AI education products, with a projected revenue potential of 688 million to 1.032 billion CNY from AI products in the Haidian district alone [65]. - A partnership with Beijing Zhiyuan Technology Co., Ltd. aims to enhance the company's AI capabilities and product offerings [58]. Market Potential - The AI education market is expected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a potential revenue of 400 to 600 billion CNY nationwide based on student enrollment figures [66]. - The company’s strategic location in Beijing, a hub for educational resources, positions it well for future expansion across the country [66].