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2025 年四季度国内公募基金份额点评
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-23 14:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report In Q4 2025, the share of domestic public - offering funds (excluding money funds) was 1.7 trillion shares, a 3.40% increase from the end of the previous quarter. The growth came from both the share growth of existing funds and the issuance of new funds [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025 Q4 Domestic Public - Offering Fund Share Review - The share of domestic public - offering funds (excluding money funds) in Q4 2025 was 1.7 trillion shares, up 3.40% from the previous quarter. New funds issued 311.863 billion shares with an average share of 6.52 billion shares, and the share of existing funds increased by 246.971 billion shares [4][6]. Index Funds Equity - New funds: In Q4 2025, 196 index stock - type products were newly issued, with a total new share of 84.712 billion shares. Products tracking the science - innovation index, artificial intelligence index, and dividend low - volatility index had high issuance popularity. - Existing funds: The total share of stock index - type products in Q4 was 353 billion shares, an increase of 18.8918 billion shares compared to Q3 [4][7]. Fixed - Income - New funds: In Q4 2025, 4 bond index - type products were newly issued, tracking credit bond and policy - financial bond indices, with a total new share of 12.549 billion yuan. - Existing funds: The share of index bond - type funds decreased by 22.851 billion shares in Q4 [4][8]. Active Equity - Hybrid Funds - New funds: Affected by the previous upward trend of the equity market, the issuance popularity of active equity - hybrid funds in Q4 significantly recovered. 313 funds were newly issued, with a total new share of 143.156 billion shares, accounting for 45.90% of the total new fund shares. - Existing funds: The share of active equity - hybrid funds declined. The total share of existing funds was 283 billion shares, a reduction of 13.5586 billion shares compared to Q3. Some investors redeemed funds for profit - taking due to the large net - value fluctuations of technology - themed funds [4][9]. Active Bond Funds - New funds: Affected by the overall decline of the bond market, the issuance popularity of bond funds remained low. 93 active bond funds were established, with a total new share of 82.091 billion shares, accounting for 26.32% of the total new fund shares. - Existing funds: The share of active bond funds slightly expanded in Q4, mainly due to the growth of partial - bond fund shares. The total share of existing active bond funds was 824 billion shares, an increase of 2.6545 billion shares compared to Q3 [4][10]. Other Funds - Inter - bank certificate of deposit funds: The share increased by 4.4649 billion shares in Q4, with 4 new funds issued and a total new share of 1.2463 billion shares. - QDII funds: The share increased by 13.5817 billion shares in Q4, with some Hang Seng Technology - themed products having obvious share expansion [4][12]. Fund Share Change Table | Fund Type | Q4 2025 Share (billion shares) | Q3 2025 Share (billion shares) | Share Change (billion shares) | Share Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stock | 396.028 | 369.3527 | 26.6754 | 7.22% | | Hybrid | 255.096 | 261.4112 | - 6.3152 | - 2.42% | | Bond | 914.6488 | 904.8124 | 9.8364 | 1.09% | | Commodity | 9.4389 | 7.0547 | 2.3842 | 33.80% | | Domestic Other | 19.7786 | 15.0969 | 4.6817 | 31.01% | | QDII Equity - Hybrid | 76.2795 | 63.4886 | 12.7909 | 20.15% | | QDII Bond | 5.9473 | 5.1731 | 0.7742 | 14.97% | | QDII Other | 0.0555 | 0.0389 | 0.0166 | 42.55% | | FOF | 22.3698 | 17.3224 | 5.0473 | 29.14% | | MOM | 0.1465 | 0.1546 | - 0.0081 | - 5.26% | | Total (excluding money funds) | 1699.789 | 1643.9056 | 55.8833 | 3.40% | [14]
中远海能(01138):更新报告:盈利再创新高,期待超级牛市
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-23 14:10
股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.23 [Table_Industry] 运输 | 风险提示。经济波动,地缘局势,制裁执行力度变化,安全事故等。 | | --- | | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 22,733 | 23,244 | 30,650 | 40,995 | 43,693 | | (+/-)% | 21.8% | 2.2% | 31.9% | 33.8% | 6.6% | | 毛利润 | 3,381 | 4,037 | 4,516 | 6,619 | 7,002 | | 净利润 | 132.1% | 19.4% | 11.9% | 46.6% | 5.8% | | (+/-)% | 0.62 | 0.74 | 0.83 | 1.21 | 1.28 | | PE | 9.6% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 13.3% | | PB | 23.08 | 19.33 | 17.28 | 11. ...
TCL电子:股权激励超额完成,合作索尼高端化提速-20260123
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-23 13:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" [5]. Core Insights - The company has exceeded its equity incentive targets for 2025, with a strategic cooperation memorandum signed with Sony, accelerating its high-end and global strategies [2]. - The forecasted adjusted net profit for 2025 is between HKD 2.33 billion and HKD 2.57 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 60% [9]. - The company maintains a leading position in the television market, with a projected global shipment of 30.41 million units in 2025, a 5.4% increase year-on-year [9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast (in thousand HKD)**: - 2023A: 78,986 - 2024A: 99,322 (+26%) - 2025E: 115,807 (+17%) - 2026E: 131,717 (+14%) - 2027E: 147,177 (+12%) [4] - **Net Profit Forecast (in million HKD)**: - 2023A: 744 - 2024A: 1,759 (+137%) - 2025E: 2,448 (+39%) - 2026E: 2,849 (+16%) - 2027E: 3,279 (+15%) [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: - PE for 2025E: 12.59 - PB for 2025E: 1.65 [4]. Strategic Developments - TCL Electronics has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with Sony to establish a joint venture for home entertainment business, with TCL holding 51% and Sony 49% [9]. - The new company will operate under the "Sony" and "BRAVIA" brands, expected to start operations by April 2027 [9]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised to HKD 0.97, HKD 1.13, and HKD 1.30 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39%, 16%, and 15% [9]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 15.82 based on a 14x PE for 2026 [9]. Market Position - TCL's market share in global television shipments is projected to be 13.8% in 2025, ranking second, while Sony is expected to have a market share of 1.9% [9]. - The company is expected to continue its high-quality growth and expansion in innovative business areas [9].
TCL电子(01070):2025年预告业绩点评:股权激励超额完成,合作索尼高端化提速
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-23 12:38
Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" [5]. Core Insights - The company has exceeded its equity incentive targets for 2025, with a strategic cooperation memorandum signed with Sony, accelerating its high-end and global strategies [2]. - The forecasted adjusted net profit for 2025 is between HKD 23.3 billion and HKD 25.7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 60% [9]. - The company maintains a leading position in the television market, with a projected global shipment of 30.41 million units in 2025, a 5.4% increase year-on-year [9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast (in thousand HKD)**: - 2023A: 78,986 - 2024A: 99,322 (+26%) - 2025E: 115,807 (+17%) - 2026E: 131,717 (+14%) - 2027E: 147,177 (+12%) [4] - **Net Profit Forecast (in million HKD)**: - 2023A: 744 - 2024A: 1,759 (+137%) - 2025E: 2,448 (+39%) - 2026E: 2,849 (+16%) - 2027E: 3,279 (+15%) [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: - PE: 2025E at 12.59, 2026E at 10.82, 2027E at 9.40 [4]. - PB: 2025E at 1.65, 2026E at 1.50, 2027E at 1.36 [4]. Strategic Developments - TCL Electronics has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with Sony to establish a joint venture for home entertainment business, with TCL holding 51% and Sony 49% [9]. - The new company will operate under the "Sony" and "BRAVIA" brands, expected to start operations by April 2027 [9].
百龙创园(605016):环比提速,持续高成长
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-23 11:35
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4][17]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant revenue growth, with a notable acceleration in net profit, indicating a high quality of growth and sustained potential for continued expansion [1][10]. - The revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 13.79 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.66 billion, showing a substantial year-on-year growth of 48.9% [10][11]. - The company is optimizing its product structure, with a higher sales proportion of high-margin resistant dextrin products, which is driving profit growth [10][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 8.68 billion in 2023 to 22 billion in 2027, with annual growth rates of 20.3%, 32.6%, 19.8%, 26.4%, and 26.1% respectively [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 193 million in 2023 to 637 million in 2027, with growth rates of 28.0%, 27.3%, 48.9%, 31.2%, and 32.8% respectively [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.46 yuan in 2023 to 1.52 yuan in 2027 [3]. Market Data - The company's target price has been raised to 31.90 yuan, up from a previous target of 30.16 yuan, reflecting strong growth expectations [4][10]. - The stock has a market capitalization of 9.442 billion, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 48.92 for the current price and diluted share capital [5][11]. Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from increasing demand for its customized high-margin resistant dextrin products in overseas markets, alongside the establishment of sales subsidiaries in Shanghai and Jinan [10]. - The trend towards healthier consumption in the domestic market is anticipated to enhance the application of the company's products, particularly allulose, which is positioned for significant growth potential [10].
25Q4基金对银行持仓点评:主动基金环比持平,被动基金增持
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-23 11:10
股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.23 票 研 究 主动基金环比持平,被动基金增持 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读: 25Q4 主动基金对银行持仓比例环比持平于 1.9%,被动基金持仓比例环比+1.6pct 至 7.0%,其中宁波银行、兴业银行、中国银行、建设银行等获主动基金增配。 25Q4 基金对银行持仓点评 投资要点: [Table_Summary] 2025 年四季度基金重仓持股情况披露(主动基金包括普通股票型、 偏股混合型、灵活配置型,被动基金包括被动指数型、指数增强型): [Table_Report] 相关报告 商业银行《国有大行投放力度较大,不良压力或 企稳》20 ...
2025年12月重卡行业月报:12月重卡顺利收官,收获同比九连增
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-23 10:45
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the heavy truck industry [4]. Core Insights - In December, domestic heavy truck sales reached 103,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 22% but a month-on-month decrease of 9% [2][4]. - The total sales of domestic heavy trucks for the year amounted to 1.144 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 27% [4]. - The report highlights that the heavy truck industry has achieved nine consecutive months of year-on-year growth, with sales exceeding 100,000 units for four consecutive months [4]. - The report anticipates that the domestic heavy truck sales in 2026 will reach 760,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, while wholesale sales are expected to reach 1.16 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [4]. Summary by Sections Heavy Truck Sales - December saw domestic natural gas heavy truck sales of 13,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19% but a month-on-month decrease of 33% [4]. - Cumulative sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks for the year reached 190,000 units, also a year-on-year increase of 19% [4]. - The penetration rate of natural gas in heavy trucks was 12% in December and 17% for the entire year [4]. New Energy Heavy Trucks - December recorded domestic new energy heavy truck sales of 27,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 139% and a month-on-month increase of 12% [4]. - Cumulative sales of domestic new energy heavy trucks for the year reached 192,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 175% [4]. - The penetration rate of new energy in heavy trucks was 26% in December and 17% for the entire year [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Foton Motor, CIMC Vehicles, and FAW Jiefang [4].
德昌电机控股:三季度经营平稳,机器人和液冷迎新增长-20260123
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-23 10:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 德昌电机控股 (0179) [2][11] Core Insights - The company has shown stable operations in the first three quarters of the 2025-2026 fiscal year, with future growth expected from the robotics and liquid cooling sectors [2][11] - Despite facing operational pressures in the Asia-Pacific region, the company is implementing vertical integration and increasing automation to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [11] - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of USD 3.648 billion in 2025, with a slight decline of 4% year-on-year, and is expected to recover with a 2% increase in 2026 [10][12] Financial Summary - Total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025-2026 was USD 2.73 billion, remaining flat year-on-year [11] - The automotive segment saw a 2% decline in revenue, primarily due to a 6% drop in the Asia-Pacific region, while the industrial segment experienced a 1% increase, driven by a 6% rise in the EMEA region [11] - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of USD 0.28 for 2025, with projections of USD 0.33 and USD 0.36 for 2026 and 2027 respectively [11][12] - The target price is set at HKD 52.80, based on a 24x PE ratio for the fiscal year 2025-2026 [11]
2025年12月重卡行业月报:12月重卡顺利收官,收获同比九连增-20260123
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-23 09:56
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the heavy truck industry [4]. Core Insights - In December, domestic heavy truck sales reached 103,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 22% but a month-on-month decrease of 9% [2][4]. - The total sales of domestic heavy trucks for the year 2023 amounted to 1.144 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 27% [4]. - The report anticipates that the domestic heavy truck sales in 2026 will reach 760,000 units, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while wholesale sales are expected to reach 1.16 million units, reflecting a 1.5% increase [4]. Summary by Sections Heavy Truck Sales Performance - December saw domestic natural gas heavy truck sales of 13,000 units, up 19% year-on-year but down 33% month-on-month [2][4]. - Cumulative sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks for 2023 reached 190,000 units, also a 19% increase year-on-year [4]. - The penetration rate of natural gas in heavy trucks was 12% in December and 17% for the entire year [4]. New Energy Heavy Truck Sales - December recorded domestic new energy heavy truck sales of 27,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 139% and a month-on-month increase of 12% [2][4]. - Cumulative sales of domestic new energy heavy trucks for 2023 reached 192,000 units, marking a 175% year-on-year growth [4]. - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks was 26% in December and 17% for the year [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Foton Motor, CIMC Vehicles, and FAW Jiefang [4].
25Q4公募基金转债持仓分析:固收加锐不可当,延续增长
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-23 08:47
固收加锐不可当,延续增长 [Table_Authors] 刘玉(分析师) 25Q4 公募基金转债持仓分析 本报告导读: Q4 固收+规模延续增长态势,震荡市下小幅增配权益、明显增持金融债,在提升权 益暴露的同时控制波动。 投资要点: 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.23 | | 021-38038263 | | --- | --- | | | liuyu6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050002 | | | 孙飞帆(研究助理) | | | 021-23185647 | | | sunfeifan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125042242 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 带"负久期"特征的基金产品平均超额收益再测 算 2026.01.19 考虑政府债久期拉长与存款置换:大行 EVE 指标 空间再测算的四个要点 2026.01.15 长债供给放量,需要担忧资金收敛吗 2026.01.13 债券 ETF 持续缩量 2026.01.12 "负久期"、信用套息和地方债套保 2026.01.10 证 券 研 究 报 告 研 究 [ ...