1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of styrene futures fluctuated in the range of 6,700 - 6,870. As of December 31, 2025, the main EB2602 contract of styrene closed at 6,791 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from last week's closing price. In the short - term, the supply - demand of styrene will gradually shift from tight balance to wide balance in January, with limited cost - side support, and the upward price trend is expected to weaken. The short - term operating range of EB2602 is expected to be around 6,680 - 6,950 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Price**: The main contract of styrene futures fluctuated in the range of 6,700 - 6,870, and the EB2602 contract closed at 6,791 yuan/ton, up 0.06% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, Baolai's 350,000 - ton plant restarted, Tianjin Bohua's 450,000 - ton plant shut down due to a fault. Styrene output increased by 2.25% to 354,600 tons, and capacity utilization rose by 1.57% to 70.70%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rates mostly increased, with EPS up 0.75% to 52.56%, PS up 4.1% to 58.6%, ABS down 0.7% to 69.4%, UPR up 2% to 38%, and styrene - butadiene rubber up 0.15% to 79.38%. In terms of inventory, the styrene factory inventory increased by 0.47% to 171,800 tons, the East China port inventory decreased by 0.36% to 138,800 tons, and the South China port inventory increased by 70% to 18,700 tons. In terms of cost - profit, the non - integrated cost of styrene rose to 6,766.50 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit slightly recovered to - 177 yuan/ton. The integrated profit is around 635.04 yuan/ton, which is profitable [7]. - **Outlook**: There are no major styrene plant shutdown or restart news in the near future. Domestic output and capacity utilization are expected to change little. EPS will maintain low operation due to the off - season and high inventory. The load of PS and ABS plants has no significant adjustment. Currently, downstream profits are generally low, suppressing the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to start production. In terms of cost, there are no signs of deterioration in the short - term geopolitical situation, and there is still supply pressure in the real - end of international crude oil. International oil prices are expected to be more likely to fall than to rise [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Futures Price and Warehouse Receipts**: The main EB futures contract fluctuated strongly, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased month - on - month [8]. - **Net Position and Monthly Spread**: The position of the 02 contract decreased month - on - month, and the 02 - 03 spread fluctuated slightly [13]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price fluctuated and rose, the main basis strengthened, and the spot was slightly at a premium [17]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream Situation - **Ethylene and Pure Benzene Prices**: The RMB price of ethylene remained stable, and the price of pure benzene in East China fluctuated slightly [23]. - **Ethylene Supply**: In November, ethylene output decreased month - on - month, and ethylene imports remained basically stable month - on - month [27]. 3.3.2. Supply - **Capacity and Output**: In December, a new 200,000 - ton plant in Dongming was put into operation. In November, styrene production was 1.4562 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83% [32]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the styrene operating rate increased month - on - month [36]. 3.3.3. Demand - **Downstream Price and Operating Rate**: The price decline of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS slowed down, and the downstream operating rates mostly increased. EPS, PS, and UPR operating rates increased, while ABS operating rate decreased, and styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate increased. EPS continued to accumulate inventory, while PS and ABS had some inventory reduction. Downstream profits were weak [39][43][48][53][56]. 3.3.4. Import and Export - In November, styrene imports were 18,800 tons, and exports were 23,700 tons [61]. 3.3.5. Inventory - Port inventory was 157,500 tons, and factory inventory was 171,800 tons. The East China port inventory was 138,800 tons, and the South China port inventory was 18,700 tons [66][70]. 3.3.6. Production Cost and Profit - Non - integrated cost increased slightly, and profit slightly recovered. The integrated process was highly profitable. This week, the import profit continued to be in a loss, and the import window was closed [74][80][83]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the main styrene contract was reported at 18.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 22.05% [88].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 31」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 本周观点：本周贵金属市场高位波动显著加剧，白银价格因集中获利了结情绪而大幅回调，下跌外 溢影响亦传导至其他贵金属及部分有色金属品种，虽然周三盘中价格逐步企稳并有所反弹，整体波 动幅度明显放大，多空博弈加剧。宏观方面，美联储12月会议纪要显示，FOMC官员降息立场分歧加 剧。在本次会议下调利率区间后，可能需要在一段时间内保持目标利率区间不变。若通胀逐步下降， 大多数官员支持进一步降息。前期的非农就业报告以及CPI通胀数据弱于预期，提振市场对于2026年 美联储展开两次以上降息的预期。此外，准备金余额已经下降到充足的水平，美联储或重启扩表以 保证充足的准备金供应，提振市场流动性预期。在流动性趋于宽松且降息预期仍存的背景下，贵金 属中期看多逻辑尚未发生明显松动，中 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 一、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 行情回顾 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅（%） | 周涨跌 | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2602 | -0.32 | -5.80 | 1801.30 | | | EC2604 | 1.09 | 12.60 | 1166.00 | | | EC2606 | 4.22 | 55.40 | 1367.90 | | | EC2608 | 1.08 | 16.00 | 1500.00 | | | EC2610 | 0.85 | 8.90 | 1060.00 | | | EC2612 | -0.24 | -3.10 | 1297.00 | | 现货 | 指数名称 | | | 收盘价 | | | SCFIS | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the LLDPE主力 futures fluctuated in the range of 6430 - 6510. As of the close on December 31, 2025, the L2605 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from last week's closing price. In January, new domestic PE production capacity will continue to be released, and low - cost overseas resources will keep flowing in. Domestic enterprises may increase temporarily shut - down devices to relieve supply pressure. With the off - season of agricultural film demand and limited follow - up of packaging film demand, the LLDPE price still faces pressure in the future. In the short term, L2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of around 6220 - 6600 [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - by - Week Highlights - **Price**: The L2605 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from last week [6]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: Last week, a new 500,000 - ton full - density plant of Guangdong BASF was put into operation, and some plants had short - term shutdowns. PE production decreased by 1.09% to 672,200 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 1.22% to 82.64% [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, with the agricultural film operating rate down 1.3% and the packaging film operating rate down 0.7% [6]. - **Inventory**: This week, the production enterprise inventory decreased by 20.48% to 346,700 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.77% to 475,100 tons [6]. - **Cost - profit**: Last week, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 1.11% to 7014 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 379.71 yuan/ton to - 667 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 1.94% to 6448 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 165.57 yuan/ton to - 206.71 yuan/ton [6]. - **Outlook**: In January, new domestic PE production capacity will be released, and low - cost overseas resources will flow in. Enterprises may increase shutdowns. Agricultural film demand is in the off - season, and packaging film demand is limited. International oil prices are expected to be weak. After the digestion of previous macro - positive factors, LLDPE prices face pressure, and L2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 6220 - 6600 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: This week, L2605 fluctuated in a range, and the trading volume of the main contract dropped significantly [7]. - **Open Interest and Warehouse Receipts**: The open interest of the 05 contract decreased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased slightly [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread fluctuated strongly, the 1 - 5 monthly spread fluctuated weakly, the 5 - 9 monthly spread fluctuated slightly, and the L - PP spread fluctuated slightly [18][24]. Spot Market - **Price**: The domestic LLDPE price was in the range of 6300 - 6530, and the CFR China quotation was 773 US dollars/ton [29]. - **Basis**: The main contract basis decreased, and the spot was slightly at a discount [33]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Ethylene Price**: This week, the RMB price of ethylene remained basically stable [37]. - **Ethylene Production and Import**: In November, ethylene production decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and ethylene import remained basically stable month - on - month but increased year - on - year [40]. Supply - **Production**: In November, the polyethylene production was 2.8909 million tons, an increase month - on - month [44]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the PE capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month [50]. Cost - profit - **Production Cost**: Last week, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased, and the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased [55]. - **Profit**: Last week, the profit of oil - based LLDPE and coal - based LLDPE both decreased. This week, the LLDPE import profit increased, but the import window remained closed [61][66]. Inventory - This week, the PE inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was not large [71]. Demand - **Downstream Price**: The prices of PE downstream products decreased [75]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Last week, the average downstream operating rate decreased by 0.6%. The operating rates of agricultural film, packaging film, and pipes decreased. From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products increased by 0.00% year - on - year, and the cumulative export amount decreased by 1.20% year - on - year [78][82][87]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 16.00%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 14.88% [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract decreased, with a weekly decline of approximately 1.37%. The market for high - quality stored Fuji apples is relatively stable, while the prices of ordinary fruit - grower supplies are mainly determined by quality. The overall trading atmosphere in the production areas is not strong, and most merchants maintain on - demand procurement. In the short term, the price will mainly fluctuate [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract decreased, with a weekly decline of about 1.37% [4][6]. - **Market Outlook**: High - quality stored Fuji apples have a relatively stable market. In Shaanxi, some fruit growers are willing to lower prices, and transactions are mainly small amounts of two - grade supplies. In Shandong, transactions are sporadic. In Gansu, merchants purchase fruit - grower supplies as needed, and the packaging and shipping are stable. In the sales areas, cherries, citrus and other fruits are popular, and the short - term price will fluctuate [4]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor fruit prices and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The current price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract is 9120, with a decline of 39 (0.43%) compared to the previous trading day. The total trading volume is 78,828, and the open interest is 134,224, with a decrease of 5,259. As of this week, the net position of the top twenty in Apple Futures is 1,964 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [6][13]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - As of December 31, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 first - and second - grade fruit - grower supplies of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong is 4.0 yuan per catty, and the price of bagged Fuji apples above 75 in Yiyuan, Shandong is 2.40 yuan per catty [16]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options 3.3.1 Industry Situation 3.3.1.1 Supply Side - As of December 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the major producing areas nationwide is 7.4404 billion kilograms, a decrease of 89.4 million kilograms from last week. The inventory reduction speed is lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 52.98%, a decrease of 0.43% from last week, and that in Shaanxi is 56.84%, a decrease of 0.58% from last week [24]. 3.3.1.2 Demand Side - As of December 25, the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks in the major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants has paused (represented by 0). As of December 26, the wholesale price of all varieties of apples is 9.30 yuan per kilogram, with no change from last week; the wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.10 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.20 yuan per kilogram from last week. The weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits is 7.74 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.13 yuan per kilogram from last week. In November 2025, China's fresh apple exports were about 121,639.681 tons, with an export value of 123,853,780 US dollars and an average export price of 1,018.09 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 51.24% compared to October and 12.38% compared to November 2024 [26][31][36][39]. 3.3.2 Options Market - No specific summary content is provided for the implied volatility of at - the - money Apple options this week, only the relevant chart is mentioned [40]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - A chart of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [42][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A-share major indices generally declined this week, with only the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising. The four stock index futures all fell, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market trading was relatively dull as it was the last trading week of 2025, and the market's reaction to economic data was not obvious due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday. However, the three major domestic PMI indices in December returned to the expansion range, indicating signs of economic recovery [6]. - In November, the external demand of the fundamentals improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The National Fiscal Conference stated that fiscal policy will continue to exert force, and the scale of fiscal expenditure may further increase next year, leading to an increase in the supply pressure of interest rate bonds. Additionally, the current main allocation force for long-term bonds is facing challenges in its ability to absorb long-duration assets, intensifying the adjustment pressure in the long-end market. Under the fragile sentiment in the bond market, it is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - Recently, the weakening of the US dollar index has supported commodities. The National Fiscal Work Conference held at the end of the week regarding next year's fiscal work, especially the arrangements for trade-ins, also supported commodity trends from the demand side. The overall macro atmosphere in the market is positive, and the commodity index is expected to maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend [6]. - The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts is highly divided. Most officials support further rate cuts if inflation gradually declines. The Fed may restart balance sheet expansion, boosting market liquidity expectations. The US dollar may maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term. The Bank of Japan tends to be hawkish, and the euro is expected to strengthen due to the widening interest rate differential, while the yen continues to fluctuate under the influence of carry trades and fiscal concerns [10]. - In December, the official manufacturing PMI reached 50.1, indicating that the manufacturing industry has expanded again. The non-manufacturing PMI also returned to the expansion range. The improvement in the construction industry's prosperity, driven by factors such as relatively high temperatures in some southern provinces and enterprises seizing the construction progress before the holidays, is expected to continue [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - **Stock Market**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.59%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock Index Futures fell by 0.78%. A-share major indices generally declined, with only the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising. The four stock index futures all fell, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market trading was dull, but the economic fundamentals showed signs of recovery. The recommendation is to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond Market**: The 10-year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.09%, and the main 10-year Treasury bond futures fell by 0.39%. The economic endogenous momentum still needs to be boosted, and the supply pressure of interest rate bonds is increasing. The long-end market faces adjustment pressure, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate. The recommendation is to conduct range trading [6]. - **Commodity Market**: The Wind Commodity Index fell by 6.87%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index fell by 1.77%. The weakening of the US dollar and fiscal policies support commodity trends. The recommendation is to mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The euro against the US dollar fell by 0.21%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract fell by 0.25%. The US dollar may maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term, the euro is expected to strengthen, and the yen continues to fluctuate. The recommendation is to cautiously wait and see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: In 2026, the "national subsidy" policy for equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-ins was launched, with the first batch of 6.25 billion yuan in funds allocated. The VAT rate for selling housing purchased for less than two years was lowered from 5% to 3%. The new generation of digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operating mechanism, and ecological system will be launched on January 1, 2026, and digital RMB will start to accrue interest. The 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan will be implemented, with 935 commodities subject to lower import provisional tax rates [14]. - **International News**: The Fed's December meeting minutes showed that most officials support further rate cuts if inflation declines. The US President met with the Ukrainian President, but no major announcements were made. The United Nations Transferable Goods Documents Convention was passed, filling a legal gap in land trade. The Bank of Japan's December policy meeting minutes were hawkish, suggesting future rate hikes [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI was also 50.1, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing industry [17]. - **US**: The month-on-month rate of the existing home sales contract signing index in November was 3.3%, higher than expected. The month-on-month rate of the FHFA housing price index in October was 0.4%, and the annual rate of the S&P/CS 20 - city non - seasonally adjusted housing price index was 1.3% [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - A series of economic data will be released next week, including the US December ISM manufacturing PMI, France and Germany's December CPI month - on - month preliminary values, Germany's December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the eurozone's December CPI annual rate preliminary value, the US December ADP employment number, etc. [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 0.64%. Sugarcane in major producing countries is being crushed. India's sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year. As of December 24, 2025/26, Thailand has produced 100.05 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67 million tons. As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production from sugarcane is 779 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. In the domestic market, as of now, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 25/26 crushing season have started operations, with large differences in sugar extraction rates; 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started operations, 7 more than the same period last year. However, the market estimates that Guangxi's sugar production in December will decrease significantly year - on - year, and there are large differences in sales volume estimates. Before the release of December production and sales data, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 0.64% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Sugarcane in major producing countries is being crushed. India's sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year. As of December 24, 2025/26, Thailand has produced 100.05 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67 million tons. As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production from sugarcane is 779 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. In the domestic market, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 25/26 crushing season have started operations, with large differences in sugar extraction rates; 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started operations, 7 more than the same period last year. The market estimates that Guangxi's sugar production in December will decrease significantly year - on - year, and there are large differences in sales volume estimates. Before the release of December production and sales data, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Market**: This week, the price of the US Sugar March contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 2.04%. As of December 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 157,649 lots, a decrease of 24,913 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 159,080 lots, an increase of 4,167 lots from the previous week, and short positions were 316,729 lots, a decrease of 20,746 lots from the previous week [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.93 cents per pound, an increase of 0.38 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 0.64%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 62,287 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts was 5,182. The price difference between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 15 yuan per ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was + 159 yuan per ton [17][23][27]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 31, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,410 yuan per ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan per ton. This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,274 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 46 yuan per ton, an increase of 33 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,108 yuan per ton, an increase of 57 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was - 16 yuan per ton, an increase of 33 yuan per ton from last week [33][39]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 1.11621 billion tons, an increase of 119.89 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [43]. - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: No specific data provided in the text. - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [48]. - **Demand Side - Sales Rate**: No specific data provided in the text. - **Demand Side - Production Volume**: In November 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. China's monthly production of soft drinks was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [56]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Related Markets - **Options Market**: No specific data provided in the text. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: Only the historical PE ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, with no specific data analysis [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main Zhengzhou jujube contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.17%. The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's production areas is coming to an end, and there is limited remaining supply and few transactions. The raw material acquisition in production areas is based on quality, adhering to the principle of better quality commanding a higher price. In the sales markets, the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has received both finished products and sub - standard jujubes. Local processing plants mainly process and sell their own goods, and holders are actively selling, while downstream customers purchase as needed. The Guangdong Ruyifang market mainly receives goods from Xinjiang, with average transactions. Overall, the market supply is sufficient, but the "peak season not prosperous" situation in demand persists. It is expected that the short - term weakness will continue [9][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer side - The price of the main Zhengzhou jujube contract fell, with a weekly decline of about 0.17% - The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's production areas is ending, with limited remaining supply and few transactions. The sales markets have sufficient supply but weak demand, and short - term weakness is expected to continue [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.17% [10] - **Top 20 Positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 16,613 lots [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 2,120 [17] - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's jujube futures 2605 contract and 2609 contract was - 265 yuan/ton [18] - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the Hebei grey jujube spot price and the main jujube futures contract was 615 yuan/ton [23] - **Purchase Price in Main Production Areas**: As of December 31, 2025, the purchase price of jujube bulk goods in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [26] - **First - Grade Jujube Spot Price**: As of December 31, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.15 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.35 yuan/jin [30] - **Superior - Grade Jujube Spot Price**: As of December 31, 2025, the spot price of superior - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.53 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.7 yuan/kg [34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory**: According to Mysteel's agricultural product research data, as of December 25, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 15,898 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.17% [39] - **Supply Side - Production Decline Possibility**: The jujube production in the 2025/26 season is expected to decline [43] - **Demand Side - Export Volume**: According to customs data, in November 2025, China's jujube export volume was 3,537,566 kg, the export value was 53,004,642 yuan, the export average price was 14,983.36 yuan/ton. The export volume increased by 60.42% month - on - month and decreased by 5.18% year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to November was 29,291,188 kg, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.50% [47] - **Demand Side - BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Trading**: The BOCE Xinjiang jujube "Good Brand" had few transactions this week [52] 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week is presented in the report, but no specific data is summarized here - **Stock Market - Hao Xiang Ni**: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio chart of Hao Xiang Ni (002582), but no specific data is analyzed [56]

「2025.12.31」 瑞达期货研究院 菜籽类市场周报 沿海油厂维持停机 支撑菜油粕基差 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货小幅收涨，05合约收盘价9087元/吨，较前一周+41元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：加拿大农业及农业食品部（AAFC）在17日报告中，将加拿大2025/26年度油菜籽期末 库存预估上调45万吨，至295万吨，高于上年度的159.7万吨，加菜籽供需格局明显好转，继续牵 制其市场价格。其它方面，高频数据显示，前25日马棕产量下滑且出口数据改善，且近期马来西 亚预期将有更大范围的降雨，强化马棕减产预期，支撑马棕市场价格。国内方面，现阶段油厂继 续处于停机状态，菜油也维持去库模式，对其价格形成支撑。并且受大豆通关政策可能收紧的消 息影响，提振国内油脂市场。不过，随着澳大利亚菜籽陆续到港后期进 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp correction in gold and silver prices this week has weakened the overall sentiment in the precious metals market. The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have turned from strong to weak, with two consecutive daily limit - down moves. This correction is a phased cooling of the over - heated previous market. In the short term, the platinum and palladium markets may enter a high - level consolidation phase. However, the accumulated squeeze - out pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot market may support price rebounds. [7] - In the long - term, platinum may see price support from the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, and its market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. But the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective choice again. [7] - For price ranges, the resistance level for London platinum is $2300 per ounce, and the support level is $1800 per ounce. For London palladium, the resistance level is $1700 per ounce, and the support level is $1400 per ounce. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The sharp correction in gold and silver prices has weakened the sentiment in the precious metals market. The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have turned weak, and this correction is a cooling of the over - heated market. In the short term, the market may consolidate, but the tight spot market may lead to price rebounds. [7] - Platinum has long - term price support factors, while palladium's demand is expected to weaken, but interest - rate cut expectations may support its price. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The sentiment in the precious metals market has weakened, and platinum and palladium prices have significantly corrected from their highs this week. As of December 31, 2025, the main palladium contract 2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was at 425.20 yuan per gram, down 17.54% week - on - week, and the main platinum contract 2606 was at 527.25 yuan per gram, down 25.24% week - on - week. [8][12] - As of December 16, 2025, the net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium showed a large divergence. The net long position of NYMEX platinum was 28,564 contracts, up 12.82% month - on - month, and that of NYMEX palladium was - 2340 contracts, down 36.05% month - on - month. [13][17] - The basis of the main NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts has weakened this week. [18] - As of December 24, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory was 645,466.92 ounces, up 3.32% month - on - month, and NYMEX palladium inventory was 195,833.87 ounces, up 4.81% month - on - month. [26] - The price ratio of NYMEX platinum to gold has rebounded recently. [27] - The rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices has increased. [31] - The positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum inventory and the US dollar index has weakened marginally. [35] 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of November 2025, both the import and export volumes of platinum decreased. [39] - The demand for platinum in automotive exhaust catalysts has weakened marginally. [45] - The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a moderate downward trend. [50] - The global supply of platinum and palladium has declined. [55] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - As of Wednesday, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield have risen slightly. [58]