证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 ——药品行业周报（3.3-3.9） 相关研究： | 核心要点 | | --- | A 股医药生物上涨 1.1% 上周医药生物上涨 1.1%，位列全市场一级行业涨幅第 19 位，跑输万得全 A 1.37 pp。13 个三级行业中 11 个子行业呈现上涨，其中体外诊断、原料 药涨幅居前。药品制造相关行业均呈现上涨，原料药、生物药及化学制剂 分别上涨 2.08%、0.63%、0.53%。 全行业估值水平方面，3 月 10 日医药生物 PE-TTM（剔除负值）为 26.87X， 位于负 1 倍标准差以上位置，PB 2.54X，低于负 1 倍标准差。 全球主要生物科技板块有所分化，A 股生科及恒生生科呈现上涨，涨幅分 别为 2.9%、2.7%，纳指生科下跌 0.3%。 投资建议 创新药多元支付机制建设持续推进，2025 年有望成为政策落地转折年， 首先首版丙类医保目录将于年内推出，其次 2025 年政府工作报告中明确 指出健全药品价格形成机制，进一步支持创新药政策有望落地新举措。全 链条支持创新药政策持续深化，加快推进创新药高质量发展。同时政府工 作报告中提 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 药品行业周报 创新主线修复延续，关注支持政策持续落地 ——药品行业周报（3.3-3.9） 相关研究： | 核心要点 | | --- | A 股医药生物上涨 1.1% 上周医药生物上涨 1.1%，位列全市场一级行业涨幅第 19 位，跑输万得全 A 1.37 pp。13 个三级行业中 11 个子行业呈现上涨，其中体外诊断、原料 药涨幅居前。药品制造相关行业均呈现上涨，原料药、生物药及化学制剂 分别上涨 2.08%、0.63%、0.53%。 全行业估值水平方面，3 月 10 日医药生物 PE-TTM（剔除负值）为 26.87X， 位于负 1 倍标准差以上位置，PB 2.54X，低于负 1 倍标准差。 全球主要生物科技板块有所分化，A 股生科及恒生生科呈现上涨，涨幅分 别为 2.9%、2.7%，纳指生科下跌 0.3%。 投资建议 创新药多元支付机制建设持续推进，2025 年有望成为政策落地转折年， 首先首版丙类医保目录将于年内推出，其次 2025 年政府工作报告中明确 指出健全药品价格形成机制，进一步支持创新药政策有望落地新举措。全 链条支持创新 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The "Four Accounts" of finance collectively form a complete system of national finance, with interconnections that allow for mutual supplementation and coordination [34] - The General Public Budget is primarily funded by tax revenues, with expenditures focused on livelihood and infrastructure development [34] - The Government Fund Budget relies on specific revenues such as land use rights transfer fees for designated public projects [34] - The State Capital Operation Budget reflects the income and expenditures of state-owned capital, while the Social Insurance Fund Budget is dedicated to social insurance revenues and expenditures [34] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise in industries related to aging populations, such as healthcare and elderly care services, influenced by government policy adjustments in healthcare and long-term care insurance [34] Summary by Sections General Public Budget - Revenue is mainly derived from tax income, with non-tax income as a supplement [6][12] - Expenditures are high in livelihood and infrastructure, with a significant portion allocated to local spending and increasing transfer payments [6][12] Government Fund Budget - The primary revenue source is land use rights transfer fees, with expenditures being strictly defined and allocated [20] State Capital Operation Budget - Revenue sources are diverse, including profit income and dividends, with overall expenditures showing an upward trend but a recent decline [25][27] Social Insurance Fund Budget - Dominated by insurance fee income and fiscal subsidies, with the largest expenditure being on basic pension insurance for employees [29][31]

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 保利发展（600048.SH） 销售规模领先行业，拿地聚焦一二线城市 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 销售：前两个月销售规模领先行业，销售均价上涨 公司发布销售情况简报，2 月公司实现签约面积 78.29 万平方米，同比减少 17.39%；签约金额 159.95 亿元，同比增加 2.38%。累计来看，1-2 月公司 实现签约面积 155.49 万平方米，同比减少 27.19%；签约金额 340.11 亿元， 同比减少5.39%。从均价来看，2月销售均价为20430元/平，同比增长23.9%； 1-2 月销售均价为 21873 元/平，同比增长 30%。 根据中指研究院数据，1-2 月公司全口径销售金额、销售面积分别位居行业 第一、第二；权益销售金额和面积均排名第一，销售规模维持行业领先。 从市占率看，1-2 月公司在 TOP100 房企中的全口径销售金额和销售面积市 占率分别为 7.6%、6.1%，同比分别+0.05pct、-1pct。 ❑ 投资：拿地聚焦一二线城市，节奏明显加快 从投资端看，2 月公司新增项目 6 个，计容建面 61.39 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company leads the industry in sales scale, with a notable increase in sales price [1][2]. - The company is focusing its land acquisition in first and second-tier cities, with a significant acceleration in investment pace [2]. - The government’s policies are expected to support market recovery, which may benefit the company’s performance in the coming years [3]. Sales Performance - In February, the company achieved a signed area of 782,900 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.39%, while the signed amount reached 15.995 billion yuan, an increase of 2.38% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to February, the signed area was 1.5549 million square meters, down 27.19%, and the signed amount was 34.011 billion yuan, down 5.39% [1]. - The average sales price in February was 20,430 yuan per square meter, up 23.9% year-on-year, and the average for January to February was 21,873 yuan per square meter, up 30% year-on-year [1]. Investment Activity - In February, the company added 6 new projects with a planned construction area of 613,900 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and a land acquisition amount of 12.224 billion yuan, up 226% [2]. - Cumulatively, from January to February, the company acquired 9 projects with a planned construction area of 890,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 79%, and a total land acquisition amount of approximately 16.1 billion yuan, up 330% [2]. - The company’s land acquisition intensity for January to February was 47.4%, significantly higher than the previous year's 10.4% [2]. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.016 billion yuan, 5.406 billion yuan, and 6.337 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.42 yuan, 0.45 yuan, and 0.53 yuan [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21x for 2024, 19.5x for 2025, and 16.6x for 2026 [3].

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 钢铁行业周报 钢材去库，基本面渐好 相关研究： | 1.《冬储意愿偏弱，钢价震荡下 | | --- | | 行》 2024.12.24 | | 2.《去库持续，关注冬储进程》 | | 2024.12.30 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 5 2 -3 绝对收益 7 1 7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 钢铁(申万) 沪深300 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王逸奇 证书编号：S0500524080002 Tel：(8621) 50293519 Email：wyq06893@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： ❑ 市场回顾：钢铁板块上涨 2.7%，估值上升 上周（3.3-3.7）钢铁板块（801950.SI）上涨 2.7%，同期沪深 300 上涨 1.39%， 行业跑赢基准指数（沪深 300）1.31 个百分点。钢铁行业板块 PE 估值为 16.3 倍，处于近十年来 70 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 钢铁行业周报 钢材去库，基本面渐好 相关研究： | 1.《冬储意愿偏弱，钢价震荡下 | | --- | | 行》 2024.12.24 | | 2.《去库持续，关注冬储进程》 | | 2024.12.30 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 5 2 -3 绝对收益 7 1 7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 钢铁(申万) 沪深300 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王逸奇 证书编号：S0500524080002 Tel：(8621) 50293519 Email：wyq06893@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： ❑ 市场回顾：钢铁板块上涨 2.7%，估值上升 上周（3.3-3.7）钢铁板块（801950.SI）上涨 2.7%，同期沪深 300 上涨 1.39%， 行业跑赢基准指数（沪深 300）1.31 个百分点。钢铁行业板块 PE 估值为 16.3 倍，处于近十年来 70 ...

ETF 市场跟踪与配置周报 1. 《北向资金视角下的ETF轮动》 2022.03.30 行业ETF轮动》 2022.06.28 策略——ETF系列研究》 2024.03.27 分析师：李正威 证书编号：S0500522090001 Tel：(8621) 50295307 Email：lizw@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 最近一周市场概况（2025-3-3 至 2025-3-7） 2. 《基于北向资金与主力资金的 3. 《PB-ROE框架下的ETF轮动 上周在 31 个申万一级行业中，26 个行业上涨，5 个行业下跌，行业涨多跌 少。涨幅较多的三个行业为有色金属（涨 7.08%）、国防军工（涨 6.96%） 和计算机（涨 6.74%）；跌幅较多的三个行业为石油石化（跌 1.49%）、 综合（跌 1.03%）和房地产（跌 0.91%）。上周 5 个交易日中，主力资金 4 个交易日净流出、1 个交易日净流入，全周合计净流出 844.18 亿元。 证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 10 日 湘财证券研究所 金融工程研究 基金研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 最近一周 ETF 市场表 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2][7][31] Core Insights - New home sales have slightly declined, while second-hand home transactions continue to grow, indicating a stronger market for second-hand properties compared to new homes [4][10][31] - The government is expected to implement policies to stabilize the real estate market, which may include easing restrictive measures and accelerating the acquisition of existing properties and idle land [7][31] Summary by Sections New and Second-Hand Housing Sales Data - In the week of March 3-9, new home sales in 30 major cities amounted to 1.47 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 33% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [4][10] - Second-hand home sales in 13 cities reached 1.92 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 66% [4][10] Key City Transactions - **Shanghai**: Second-hand home daily average transactions reached 858 units, a year-on-year increase of 57% [5][15] - **Guangzhou**: Second-hand home transactions rose to 2,540 units, a year-on-year increase of 16% [6][20] - **Shenzhen**: Second-hand home daily average transactions were 199 units, a year-on-year increase of 54% [6][23] - **Beijing**: Second-hand home daily average transactions were 550 units, a year-on-year increase of 41% [6][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with low financial risks, strong land acquisition capabilities, and reasonable land reserves, as well as top second-hand housing intermediaries benefiting from active transactions [7][31]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a focus on potential investment opportunities following the "Two Sessions" policy signals [3]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector has returned to an expansion phase, with a PMI of 50.2 in February 2025, indicating improved production and new orders [8]. - The construction industry has shown significant improvement, with a PMI of 52.7 in February 2025, driven by post-holiday resumption of work and supportive fiscal policies [13]. - There has been a notable increase in corporate credit demand, with new RMB loans reaching 4.78 trillion yuan in January 2025, reflecting a recovery in the real economy [16]. - The government work report highlights a commitment to maintaining a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, alongside a historic high fiscal deficit rate of 4% [27][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February 2025, with production and new orders indices at 52.5 and 51.1 respectively, indicating a return to expansion [8]. - Export orders have improved, with a new export orders index at 48.6, suggesting better-than-expected export performance despite tariff impacts [8]. 2. Significant Growth in Corporate Credit - In January 2025, the new social financing scale reached 7.06 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans contributing significantly to this growth [16]. - The increase in corporate credit demand is attributed to enhanced confidence in the economy and supportive government policies [23]. 3. Government Work Report Highlights - The report sets a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, maintaining consistency with previous years [27]. - The fiscal deficit rate is set to rise to 4% in 2025, reflecting a strong commitment to fiscal expansion [28]. - The government plans to increase the special bond quota to 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, with a focus on infrastructure and debt resolution [29].