投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 □业硅数据日报 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2 国贸期货研究院 从业资格号:F03123927 投资咨询号:Z0023460 2026/01/27 陈宇森 数据来源: SMM. 百川盈孚,Wind,广期所,公开新闻整理 涨跌幅(%) 持仓量 合约 收盘价 421#-通氧553价差 - 不通氧553#硅(华东)-平均价 江西新纺高科永修年产137500吨有机硅新材料项目备案。11月14日、江西省投资项目在线审批监管平台公布了江西新纺高科永修年产 137500吨有机硅新材料项目的备案信息。 | F 分 | | | --- | --- | | H 발 | 供给端，西北大厂有传闻因寒流问题矿石运输受制计划停炉。需求端，多晶硅、有机硅需求收缩趋势明显。整体看，供给端的短期祝 动与需求端的趋势性收缩。或增加库存的去化,但短期内难以扭转供给过剩的格局,价格预计震荡运行 | | 双 点 | | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力灾准确可靠。但不对上达信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个 人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资 ...

投资咨询号: Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2026/1/26 金融行生品中心 李泽矩 从业资格号: F0251925 数据来源: Wind, 国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 指数 收盘价 涨跌幅 (8) 成交额(亿元) 成交量(亿) 上证50 2004. 56 3032. 193 -0. 69 69. 02 沪深300 7556. 18 4702. 4966 -0. 45 314. 64 8470. 7438 1. 94 6819. 48 393. 04 中证1000 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认购期权 认购期权 认沽期权 持仓量 认活期权 日成交量 期权持仓量 指数 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) 成交量 成交量 (万张) PCR PCR 上证50 4. 70 1. 76 0. 60 7. 54 2. 79 2. 94 4. 75 0. 59 沪深300 7. 31 12. 20 7. 98 4. 22 0. 53 18. 32 11. 01 0. 66 32. 72 中证1000 19. 94 12. 78 29. 45 0. 64 14. 46 14. 98 1. 04 沪深300PCR走势 中证1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【粕类周报】 低位震荡，关注南美天气 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-26 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 粕类：低位震荡，关注南美天气 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）根据CONAB，截至1月17日，巴西大豆收割率为2.3%，上周为0.6%，去年同期为1.2%，五年均值为3.2%。根据BAGE，截至1月21日，阿根廷大豆播 | | 供给 | 偏空 | 种进度96.2%，小幅落后于去年同期。大豆作物状况评级良好占比53%(上周值61%，去年同期值26%)。（3）根据国内买船情况推测， 1月国内大豆到港预 | | | | 期为613万吨，2月到港预期484万吨，3月到港预期470万吨；(3）2025/26年全球菜籽预期恢复性增产，中加会晤释放友好信号，3月后加菜籽、加菜粕 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish, and the trading strategy suggests a bearish stance for single - sided trading and advises to monitor overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices for arbitrage [3] Core View - The pulp market lacks fundamental drivers and is expected to fluctuate weakly. Supply is relatively strong, demand is neutral to bearish, and inventory is bearish, leading to an overall bearish outlook [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco Company's January coniferous pulp offer was $710/ton, up $10/ton; eucalyptus pulp Star was quoted at $590/ton, up $20/ton; and natural pulp Venus was quoted at $620/ton, unchanged [3] - **Demand**: This week, the price of tissue paper continued to rise, the price of coated paper fell, and the prices of offset paper and white cardboard were stable. Paper production decreased slightly due to maintenance. Most paper mills have gradually completed pre - Spring Festival stockpiling [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, 2026, the inventory of Chinese pulp's mainstream port samples was 2.068 million tons, up 54,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. The inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The price of eucalyptus pulp declined slightly this week, paper mills' willingness to purchase coniferous pulp was average, and port inventory increased. It is expected to fluctuate bearishly. The single - sided trading strategy is bearish, and for arbitrage, pay attention to overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Pulp futures continued to operate weakly this week. The price of eucalyptus pulp declined slightly, the basis of coniferous pulp strengthened slightly, and port inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. With the completion of pre - festival stockpiling, it is expected to continue to operate weakly [7] - **Spot Market**: The price of eucalyptus pulp weakened, and the basis of coniferous pulp strengthened. The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and 150 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of coniferous pulp Buzhen was 4,700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week and 120 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of eucalyptus pulp Jinyu was 4,620 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 180 yuan/ton month - on - month [9][15] - **January Foreign Offer**: Chile's Arauco Company's January coniferous pulp offer was $710/ton, up $10/ton; eucalyptus pulp Star was quoted at $590/ton, up $20/ton; and natural pulp Venus was quoted at $620/ton, unchanged [17] - **Pulp Position**: As of January 23, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts was 348,378 lots, up 7% from last week; the position of the main pulp futures contract was 260,129 lots, up 7% from last week [19] Part Three: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In December, the import volume of eucalyptus wood chips increased significantly. The total pulp import volume was 3.246 million tons, up 23.99%; the coniferous pulp import volume was 725,000 tons, up 4.92%; the eucalyptus pulp import volume was 1.765 million tons, up 33.88%; and the eucalyptus wood chip import volume was 1.49 million tons, up 55.69% [4] - **Inventory**: Pulp port inventory increased, and futures warehouse receipts were slightly cancelled. Overseas pulp mill inventory days were basically stable, but according to PPPC, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers at the end of November was 46 days, with bleached softwood pulp at 49 days and bleached hardwood pulp at 45 days [29][34] - **Paper Price and Gross Margin**: As of January 23, 2026, the price of offset paper was 4,725 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of coated paper was 4,660 yuan/ton, down 0.43% week - on - week; the price of tissue paper was 5,875 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of white cardboard was 4,269 yuan/ton, down 0.12% week - on - week. As of January 23, 2025, the gross margin of offset paper was - 10.61%, up 0.42% week - on - week; the gross margin of coated paper was - 10.29%, down 0.10% week - on - week; the gross margin of tissue paper was 4.65%, up 0.44% week - on - week; the gross margin of white cardboard was - 5.84%, up 0.15% week - on - week [38] - **Downstream Demand**: In December 2025, the production of paper products increased significantly month - on - month. The production of offset paper was 867,400 tons, up 9.7% month - on - month and 15.8% year - on - year; the production of coated paper was 409,200 tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 21.1% year - on - year; the production of tissue paper was 858,600 tons, up 3% month - on - month and 10.2% year - on - year; the production of white cardboard was 1.125 million tons, up 4.4% month - on - month and 30.4% year - on - year [46] - **Paper Inventory**: As of December 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.93 million tons, down 2.6% month - on - month and up 18% year - on - year; the inventory of coated paper was 1.278 million tons, down 1.1% month - on - month and up 14.6% year - on - year; the inventory of tissue paper was 346,200 tons, down 7.3% month - on - month and up 4% year - on - year; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.286 million tons, up 4.2% month - on - month and up 18.3% year - on - year [53] - **Double - Offset Paper**: As of January 23, 2025, the total inventory of double - offset paper was 1.9539 million tons, up 0.01% week - on - week, with mill inventory at 1.4079 million tons and social inventory at 546,000 tons. The available days of mill inventory were 30.53 days, up 0.1 day week - on - week. The production was 196,000 tons, down 6,900 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 52%, down 0.18% week - on - week. The production cost was 5,094 yuan/ton, down 0.6% week - on - week, and the production gross profit was - 451 yuan/ton, down 7% week - on - week [61][64][68] - **Overseas Market**: In December 2025, European coniferous pulp demand was 198,600 tons (down 7.1% month - on - month and 8.3% year - on - year); eucalyptus pulp demand was 476,000 tons (down 11.59% month - on - month and up 2.55% year - on - year). European coniferous pulp inventory was 222,800 tons (up 6.93% month - on - month and 0.71% year - on - year); eucalyptus pulp inventory was 493,800 tons (up 9.59% month - on - month and 15.53% year - on - year) [75] - **Spread**: As of January 23, 2026, the basis of Shandong Silver Star was - 48 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of Shandong Jinyu was - 778 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton from last week. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 44 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week [83]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 需求不及预期，期现双双走弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-26 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :需求不及预期，期现双双走弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.3万吨至85万吨;（2）烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为87.7%，较上周环比+1.0%。 分区域来看，周内华东、华南、华中前期部分检修设备恢复之后负荷逐步提升；西南及华北牵扯部分设备轻微调整，本地负荷略有下滑，其中山东周度产 | | | | 能利用率91.5%，环比-0.9%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有所下滑，非铝需求疲软。（2）粘胶短纤行业产能利用率88.43%，较上周+3.01% ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【生猪周报（LH)】 近月需求旺季不旺，远月产能去化支撑 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-26 谢威 从业资格证号：F03087820 投资咨询证号：Z0019508 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 02 PART TWO 生猪基本面数据 现货价格 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 生猪：近月需求旺季不旺，远月产能去化支撑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | - ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Corn spot prices face ongoing contradictions and are expected to experience short - term high - level fluctuations. Northeast corn sales progress is relatively fast, port inventories are low, and there is a certain pre - holiday restocking demand from the mid - and downstream sectors. As a result, short - term spot prices remain firm, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. The current grass - roots grain sales progress has exceeded 50%, with faster - than - average sales in the Northeast. This year's Chinese New Year is later, providing a longer pre - holiday grain sales window, and farmers still have a price - holding sentiment. The planting cost in the 25/26 season continues to decline, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China, but the overall national production is expected to be abundant [4]. - **Demand**: Slightly bullish. High pig inventories and limited capacity reduction support short - term feed demand. However, due to capacity adjustment and policy control expectations, long - term feed demand is expected to decline. Feed enterprises maintain safety stocks and conduct rolling restocking. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal restocking needs but are cautious. Traders have not carried out large - scale strategic restocking and have restocking requirements [4]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. Due to strong shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at North Ports is slow, and the inventory remains at a low level, mostly contract - order inventory. The domestic trade corn inventory at South Ports is also at a low level. Feed enterprises maintain safety stocks, and deep - processing corn inventories are low [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis is neutral [4]. - **Profit**: Neutral. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs has returned to positive, broiler farming has a small profit, and layer farming profit has recovered. However, the processing profits of deep - processed starch and alcohol are in the red [4]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. From the perspective of planting costs, the corn futures valuation is high; from the basis perspective, it is neutral [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Fluctuating. Given the fast sales progress in the Northeast, low port inventories, and restocking demand from the mid - and downstream sectors, short - term spot prices are firm, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be slightly bullish, and arbitrage trading should be on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Trends**: The report presents the basis trend of the corn main contract, prices at various ports (Jinzhou Port, Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Shekou Port), and the futures market's open interest, indicating that the open interest is at a high level [7][9][13]. 3. Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain Sales Progress**: The sales progress in the Northeast and North China is presented, with the Northeast's sales progress being relatively fast. The channel supply is at a high level [23][25]. - **Imported Grains**: Imported grains decreased in January and February, and the import profit of US corn is at a high level [35]. - **Port Conditions**: Corn inventories at both North and South Ports are at low levels. Feed enterprises' inventory days and monthly feed production are also presented [42][49][51]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming**: Pig prices have slightly rebounded, and the pig weight is at a high level. Broiler and layer farming profits show different trends, and the inventory of parent - stock chickens and layer chickens is also presented [58][62][68]. - **Deep - Processing Industry**: Deep - processing corn consumption shows a seasonal decline, and deep - processing corn inventories are low. Starch processing profits are in the red, and starch inventories are at a high level. Alcohol production rates are declining, and processing profits are falling. Paper - making production rates are high, but profits are declining. Wheat prices have slightly increased, and flour demand is weak [72][78][91][99][107]. 4. Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **January Report**: The corn stock - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries in the 2025/26 season have been raised. The US corn export sales performance is good [118][125].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: [Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report] - Dollar Index Drops, Non-ferrous Sector Oscillates Higher [1] - Report Date: January 26, 2026 - Analysts: Fang Fuqiang, Xie Ling, Lin Jingyan Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The dollar index has declined, leading to an oscillating upward trend in the non-ferrous sector [1] - For copper, short - term price pressure exists due to the US delaying new tariffs on key mineral imports, but the decline is limited due to the falling dollar index and improved market sentiment [8] - For zinc, the fundamental contradictions are insufficient, and its price is mainly affected by the sector's trend, suggesting a high - selling and low - buying strategy [95] - For nickel and stainless steel, due to factors such as potential supply shortages in Indonesia and shipping incidents in the Philippines, nickel prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will run at a high level, with attention to potential risks such as short - squeeze in near - month contracts [198][199] Group 4: Summary by Section 4.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The dollar index is at 97.5, with a daily decline of 0.79%, a weekly decline of 1.88%, and an annual decline of 0.78%. The exchange rate CNH is 6.9642, with a daily increase of 0.02%, a weekly decline of 0.07%, and an annual decline of 0.35% [6] - Most non - ferrous metals show varying degrees of price changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the price of lithium carbonate has a significant increase, with a daily increase of 7.55%, a weekly increase of 24.16%, and an annual increase of 49.30% [6] 4.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: China's 2025 GDP growth meets expectations, and recent domestic policies may improve domestic demand. The US has some policy stances that affect market risk appetite, and the dollar index is under pressure [8] - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore decreases, the port inventory slightly increases, and the long - term processing fee benchmark for 2026 is set at 0 [8] - **Smelting End**: The loss of smelters using spot copper ore slightly expands, while the profit of those using long - term contracts increases [8] - **Demand End**: The downstream demand is released as the copper price falls, and the operating rate of refined copper rods increases [8] - **Inventory**: Global copper inventories increase significantly [8] - **Investment View**: The copper price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low levels [8] 4.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: The macro - sentiment is complex, with geopolitical disturbances and central bank policy expectations affecting the market [95] - **Raw Material End**: The average domestic processing fee remains stable, the imported processing fee continues to decline, and the supply of zinc ore may be affected by geopolitical risks [95] - **Smelting End**: The domestic zinc ingot production continues to shrink, and the average loss per ton of zinc for smelters narrows slightly [95] - **Demand End**: The downstream is in the seasonal off - season, and the procurement is mainly for rigid needs [95] - **Inventory**: The social inventory and LME inventory of zinc ingots both show a slight increase [95] - **Investment View**: The zinc price is mainly affected by the sector's trend, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended [95] 4.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - **Macro Factors**: The US PCE inflation data meets expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged. The Chinese central bank may implement further policies. Indonesia's policies increase concerns about nickel supply [198][199] - **Raw Material End**: The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is firm, the rainfall in the Philippine production area affects transportation, and the domestic port inventory of nickel ore is decreasing [198][199] - **Smelting End**: The production of pure nickel and nickel - iron may increase, and the production of stainless steel is expected to rise in January [198][199] - **Demand End**: The social inventory of stainless steel is decreasing, and the downstream is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period. The demand for new energy is affected by the production schedule of precursor enterprises [198][199] - **Inventory**: Global nickel inventories are increasing [198] - **Investment View**: Nickel prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will run at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disturbances and potential short - squeeze risks [198][199]

【玻璃纯碱（ 】 供需平淡，价格震荡 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2026-01-26 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需平淡，价格震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.07万吨，与15日持平。行业开工率为71.62%，与15日持平；行业产能利用率为75.57%，与15日持平。 | | | | 本周无产线放水或者点火，日产量维持平稳。下周暂无产线存在点火或者冷修预期，短期供给持稳。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 需求有支撑，但随着时间的推移，需求端受季节性因素影响，多逐步进入收尾阶段，且对节后需求观望心态浓厚，节前囤货积极性不高，对原 片产销支撑偏弱。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存小幅累库，企业总库存5321.6万重箱，环比+20.3万重箱，环比+0.38% ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 潜在利多尚存，油脂偏多对待 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-26 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：潜在利多尚存，油脂偏多对待 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性偏多 | （1）马来持续减产表现；（2）2-3月进口大豆有青黄不接的可能；（3）3月1日前加拿大菜籽将适用15%税率，较此前进口成本大幅下降，或带来油厂 | | | | 的采买节奏，澳籽后续也有进商业压榨预期。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）印度和国内备货节奏对油脂需求有明显提振，但需考虑品种间的替代；（2）印尼声称推迟B50的消息对棕榈油远月价格有情绪上的利空，但未必 真的今年不落地；（3）美国生柴整体配额预计维持此前草案的水平或更低，但取消了对进口投料的惩罚，更利好加拿大菜系产品需求，等待3月初政策 | | ...