| | | | 1 1 1 发布日期:202 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 业分符号:上02017 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 超势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | 肢指 | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 | | 宏观金融。必 | | | 略角度看,近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 | | | | | 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国 债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 怪啊。 | | | | | 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场情绪向好,叠加产业面存在支 | | | | | 撑,铜价偏强运行。 | | | | 有为说 | 近期产业面驱动有限，而宏观情绪向好,铝价回升。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价 格继续 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Prices are supported at the 3000 low but the upside is limited due to weak demand. Steel production is likely to decline gradually as the industry awaits the implementation of the production cut logic [2]. - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. With steel prices under pressure, demand for these alloys is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus will continue to weigh on prices [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, the current decline may be nearing its end from a valuation perspective. However, the market may need to wait for a while from a driving force perspective, and the next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - The fundamentals of iron ore remain weak with clear upward pressure. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate due to reduced steel production, and the operation strategy is to sell on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605 and HC2605 were 3105.00 yuan/ton and 3281.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.38% and 0.33%. The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2601 and HC2601 were 3093.00 yuan/ton and 3293.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.13% and 0.27% [1]. - The price is in a narrow - range oscillation. There is an impulse to rebound, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. The industry contradiction is not prominent, and the price is likely to remain within the range. The production cut logic needs time to be realized [2]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with an interval oscillation mindset; consider participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [8]. Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - The prices are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. The macro - policy has expected benefits but is unconfirmed. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply - demand surplus persists, and prices will be under pressure [3][5]. - Investment strategy: Investment clients can short on rallies, and industrial clients can use put - writing options to protect their spot exposure [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts J2605 and JM2605 were 1751.00 yuan/ton and 1165.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.43% and 0.21%. The closing prices of near - month contracts J2601 and JM2601 were 1607.00 yuan/ton and 1071.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spot market sentiment is weakening, with coke having a price cut expectation and most coking coal spot auctions falling. From a valuation perspective, the decline is approaching the end, but the market may need to wait for a while. The next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with a short - term mindset for now, wait and see for the medium - and long - term, and liquidate hedging short positions [8]. Iron Ore - The short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipment is not greatly affected. With the decline of molten iron and steel production, the inventory will continue to accumulate. Although the price has rebounded at the bottom of the range, it is difficult to break through the range due to inventory pressure [7]. - Investment strategy: Hold short positions [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate. Recent pulp warehouse receipts have seen cancellations and new registrations [6]. - On the supply side, Chile's Arauco Company's October offer for coniferous pulp Silver Star decreased by $20/ton to $680/ton, while the offer for hardwood pulp Star remained flat at $540/ton, and the offer for natural pulp Venus remained unchanged at $590/ton [6]. - On the demand side, recent pulp - using paper products have issued price - increase letters. Only the price increase of white cardboard has been well - implemented, and double - offset paper has issued new price - increase letters, with the implementation to be monitored [6]. - On the inventory side, as of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 217.2 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from the previous period, a 0.05% month - on - month decrease, showing a slight de - stocking trend [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 27, 2025, SP2601 was 5184 yuan/ton, down 0.46% day - on - day and 2.15% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4670 yuan/ton, down 0.98% day - on - day and 3.87% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5234 yuan/ton, down 0.49% day - on - day and 1.99% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.82% week - on - week; coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5170 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 3.36% week - on - week; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4400 yuan/ton, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week [6]. - **Outer - Market Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was $680/ton, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was $530/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was $590/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5721 yuan/ton, down 2.83% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344 yuan/ton, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, unchanged from September; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 131.8 tons, down from 135.6 tons in September. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly in different periods. The pulp port inventory on November 27, 2025, was 217.2 tons, down 0.1 tons from the previous period [6]. - **Demand**: The production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated in different periods. For example, the production of double - offset paper on November 27, 2025, was 20.80 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 217.2 tons, down 0.1 tons from the previous period, a 0.05% decrease. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 21.1 tons [6]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 27, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 500, with a quantile level of 0.952; the Silver Star basis was 730, with a quantile level of 0.926 [6]. - **Import Profit**: On November 27, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 159, with a quantile level of 0.378; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.705 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The terminal demand for lithium carbonate remains strong, but due to a large number of profit - taking positions accumulated from the previous sharp rise and the negative sentiment from overseas mines, there is short - term downward pressure on lithium carbonate prices, and the price may fluctuate widely after stabilizing [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 93,300 yuan, up 500 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 90,850 yuan, up 450 yuan [1] Lithium Carbonate Futures Contracts - The closing prices and price changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts from 2512 to 2604 are provided, with price declines ranging from 1.41% to 1.9% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 1126 yuan, up 13 yuan; lithium mica with different Li₂O contents (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%) and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone with different Li₂O contents (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) also have their respective average prices and price changes [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average prices and price changes of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate (power type), ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type), and ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) are provided [2] Price Spreads - The current values and change values of price spreads such as battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate - main contract, near - month - first - continuous, and near - month - second - continuous are provided [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons), inventory of smelters (weekly, tons), downstream inventory (weekly, tons), other inventory (weekly, tons), and registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) are provided, with corresponding changes [2] Profit Estimation - The cash costs and profits of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate are estimated [3] Industry News - This week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 265 tons and inventory decreased by 2452 tons; the national new - type energy storage installed capacity exceeds 100 million kilowatts, 30 times that at the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan" [3]

500 FEE CATENZ 国 流的衍生品综合服务 方 生 网 月屋 Fire 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | I C E H B E F B E F B | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究员 | | 方冒强 | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 2025/11/27 | | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | | 价格指标 15:00期货价格 现货价格 | | 变化 (%) | 变化 (%) 图表 | | 制 10876 10848 | | 0. 75 | 0.7 LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | 锌 3118 2986. 5 | | -0. 59 | -0.3 | | LME 1961.5 2809 铝 | | 0.08 | 1500000 -0. 21 | | (美元/吨) | | | | | 镍 14650 14865 期货与现货 | | 1.45 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market shows a volatile performance. With the supply side presenting stable raw - material prices in Thailand, and specific price levels in Yunnan and Hainan. The mid - stream inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the downstream tire factory capacity utilization has decreased. After the RU warehouse receipt cancellation, the current number of warehouse receipts on the disk is at a low level. Considering the end - of - year period and the main contract roll - over stage in the commodity market, the overall market lacks driving forces, and the rubber is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The trading strategy is to temporarily hold off on unilateral positions and focus on the arbitrage of going long on NR and short on RU [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Domestic Futures**: RU main contract is at 15195, up 70; NR main contract is at 12165, up 15; BR main contract is at 10360, up 90 [3] - **Foreign Futures**: Tocom RSS3 is at 334.1 yen/kg, down 1.5; Sicom TF is at 170.5 cents/kg, unchanged [3] - **Inter - period Spreads**: RU2605 - RU2601 is 60, down 15; RU2609 - RU2605 is 35, up 5; NR main - second main is - 25, up 5; BR main - second main is 5, down 10 [3] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: RU - NR is 3030, up 55; RU - BR is 4835, down 20; NR - BR is 1805, down 75 [3] - **Inter - market Spreads**: RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) is 5, up 24; NR - Sicom TF ($) is 13, up 5 [3] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Thailand (Baht/kg)**: Glue is 57.00, unchanged; cup - lump price is not available [3] - **Hainan and Yunnan (Yuan/ton)**: Hainan glue for concentrated latex is 14300, unchanged; Hainan glue for whole milk is 13100 - 14200, unchanged; Yunnan glue for concentrated latex is 13900, unchanged; Yunnan rubber block for whole milk is 13900, unchanged [3] 3.3 Factory Costs and Profits - **Whole - latex Delivery Profits**: Hainan is - 2548, down 29; Yunnan is - 428, up 71; Thailand is 346, down 10 [3] - **Concentrated Latex Production Profits**: Hainan is - 364, down 65 [3] - **Smoked Sheet and 20 - grade Rubber Gross Profits**: Thai smoked sheet is 1370, down 14; Thai 20 - grade rubber is - 515, up 270 [3] 3.4 Domestic Spot - **Light - colored Rubber**: Old whole milk is 14800, up 50; Vietnamese 3L is 15150, down 100; Thai mixed rubber is 14550, unchanged; Malaysian mixed rubber is 14500, unchanged [3] - **Dark - colored Rubber**: Thai standard is 12991, up 30; domestic standard II is 13750, unchanged [3] - **Latex**: Shanghai: Huangchunfa bulk is 11450, down 50; Shanghai: Hainan bulk is 11200, unchanged [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10400, down 100; Styrene - butadiene SBR1502 is 10850, down 100; Styrene - butadiene SBR1712 is 9850, down 50 [3] - **Mixed Rubber**: Thai mixed CIF is 1815, unchanged; Malaysian frost CIF is 1805, unchanged [3] 3.5 Overseas Spot - **Standard Rubber**: Thai standard CIF is 1815, unchanged; Malaysian standard CIF is 1805, unchanged; Indian standard CIF is 1730, unchanged [3] 3.6 Futures - Spot Spreads - **RU Spreads**: RU - Thai mixed is 645, up 70; RU - old whole milk is 395, up 20; RU - Vietnamese 3L is 45, up 170 [3] - **NR Spreads**: NR - Thai standard delivery profit is - 835, up 15; NR - Indian standard delivery profit is - 198, up 15; NR - Malaysian standard delivery profit is - 765, up 15 [3] - **Spot Spreads - Variety Spreads**: Thai standard - Thai mixed ($) is 10, unchanged; Vietnamese 3L - Thai mixed is 600, down 100; domestic standard II - Thai mixed is - 800, unchanged; old whole milk - Vietnamese 3L is - 350, up 150; domestic 9710 - Thai mixed is - 350, unchanged; Thai standard - African 10 - grade ($) is 110, unchanged [3] 3.7 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - **Exchange Rates**: US dollar index is 99.8123, US dollar/Chinese yuan is 7.0796, down 0.003; US dollar/Japanese yen is 156.0730, unchanged; US dollar/Thai baht is 32.2675, unchanged [3] - **Interest Rates**: SHIBOR - overnight is 1.316, unchanged; SHIBOR - seven - day is 1.453, up 0.020 [3] 3.8 Supply, Demand and Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Thai raw - material glue price is 57 baht/kg, unchanged; cup - lump price is not available. Yunnan glue for whole - milk production is 13900 yuan/ton, unchanged; for concentrated latex is 14200 yuan/ton, unchanged. Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 16200 yuan/ton, up 0.62%; for concentrated latex is 16200 yuan/ton, up 0.62% [3] - **Mid - stream Inventory**: As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 46.89 tons, a 3.60% increase from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory is 7.19 tons, with a 7.97% increase; the general - trade inventory is 39.7 tons, with a 2.84% increase [3] - **Downstream Tire Factories**: The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.04%, a 2.25 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 1.56 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.36%, a 3.63 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 10.40 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [3]

2025/11/27 | 指标 | | 11月26日 | 涨跌 | 升贴水 | 对主力基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 锦州港平舱价 | 2290 | 20 | 0 | 56 | | | 鲅鱼圈港平舱价 | 2275 | 25 | 0 | 41 | | | 蛇口港市场价 | 2460 | 30 | | | | | 黑龙江省-哈尔滨 | 2050 | 0 | -195 | 11 | | | 黑龙江省-绥化 | 2030 | 0 | -195 | -9 | | | 吉林省-长春 | 2130 | 0 | -130 | 26 | | | 辽宁省-沈阳 | 2200 | 30 | -80 | 46 | | | 辽宁省-铁岭 | 2180 | 20 | -80 | 26 | | 玉米现货 | | | | | | | | 内蒙古-通辽 | 2160 | 0 | -100 | 26 | | | 内蒙古-赤峰 | 2150 | 0 | -100 | 16 | | | 河北省-邯郸 | 2210 | 0 | I | - | | | 河北省-石家庄 | 2210 | 0 ...

5、越来越多的专家预测,2026年原油供应增长将超过需求增长。德意志银行周 一在一份报告中表示,预计明年原油供应将至少过剩200万桶/,并且即使到2027 年,也没有明确的路径回归供应短缺。 【BU】 观点:华北地区高价沥青资源出货节奏偏缓,贸易商今日适度下调报价以促 进走货;西北地区受镇海炼化昨日火运价格下调影响,区域内主流报价重心同步 走低:华南与华东市场需求端释放不及预期,中下游企业采购态度偏谨慎,多以 消化既有库存为主,炼厂及社会库存报价均保持稳定。后市来看,山东、华北地 区终端需求表现平淡,市场成交多集中于低价货源,短期沥青价格大概率呈弱势 运行;而华南、华东市场供应端存在收缩预期,沥青价格或暂时维持平稳态势。 3、据德意志商业银行的商品分析师Carsten Fritsch指出,即便美国的制裁可 能有所缓解,欧洲某国的石油产量也不太可能出现大幅增长。因为OPEC+组织的 产量配额限制,以及现有生产设施已接近满负荷运行的状态,都制约了产量的进 一步增加。"由于欧洲某国的产量很可能已经接近其生产能力上限,因此如果 OPEC+决定在明年进一步提高产量目标,那么欧洲某国的产量很难再有显著增长 。根据国际能源 ...

| | | | | 投资询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 C 国贸期货 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 甲醇数据日报 | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | | 2025/11/27 | | | | 数据来源:钢联 | | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | 들 | | 内蒙古北线 陕西关中 太仓 | | | 广东 | 山东临沂 | 河南 | | 现点 | 现值 | 2090 | 1990 | 1940 | 2050 | 2215 | 2075 | | 货区 | 前值 | 2060 | 1985 | 1935 | 2030 | 2190 | 2065 | | 域 | 涨幅 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 25 | 10 | | 期 号 | | MA2601 MA2605 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 2094 | 2201 | | | | | | 货 纪 | 前值 | 2067 | 218 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has support and pressure in the near term. There is continuous pressure from new cotton supply, but yarn mills are actively replenishing stocks. In the long - term, it depends on policies and weather. Strategies include selling high and buying back the spread between January and May contracts and going long on far - month contracts at low prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 26 was 13625, down 20 (-0.15%) from November 25; CF05 was 13585, up 5 (0.04%); CF01 - 05 was 40, down 25 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on November 26, it was 14700, up 101 (0.69%); in Henan, 14896, up 48 (0.32%); in Shandong, 14951, up 41 (0.27%); Xinjiang - main contract basis was 1075, up 121 [3] Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures CY on November 26 was 20070, up 5 (0.02%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index was 20660, unchanged (0.00%) [3] US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT was 64 (USD/ pound), unchanged; the arrival price was 73.30, up 0.3 (0.41%); 1% quota delivery price was 12830, up 51 (0.40%); sliding - scale duty delivery price was 13868, up 31 (0.22%) [3] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6445, up 25; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 1038, down 20; the spot internal - external spread was 2121, down 10 [3][4]