Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has support and pressure in the near term. There is continuous pressure from new cotton supply, but yarn mills are actively replenishing stocks. In the long - term, it depends on policies and weather. Strategies include selling high and buying back the spread between January and May contracts and going long on far - month contracts at low prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 26 was 13625, down 20 (-0.15%) from November 25; CF05 was 13585, up 5 (0.04%); CF01 - 05 was 40, down 25 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on November 26, it was 14700, up 101 (0.69%); in Henan, 14896, up 48 (0.32%); in Shandong, 14951, up 41 (0.27%); Xinjiang - main contract basis was 1075, up 121 [3] Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures CY on November 26 was 20070, up 5 (0.02%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index was 20660, unchanged (0.00%) [3] US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT was 64 (USD/ pound), unchanged; the arrival price was 73.30, up 0.3 (0.41%); 1% quota delivery price was 12830, up 51 (0.40%); sliding - scale duty delivery price was 13868, up 31 (0.22%) [3] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6445, up 25; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 1038, down 20; the spot internal - external spread was 2121, down 10 [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Glass, Agricultural Products (in some aspects), PTA, Short Fiber - Bearish: Palm Oil, Live Pigs - Neutral/Oscillating: Macro Finance, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Soda Ash, Coke, Coking Coal, Rapeseed Oil, Pulp, Logs, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Rubber, Styrene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping (European Line) [1] Core Views - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of a new main line. Central Huijin's support provides a buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during the market adjustment and use the futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward movement [1]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, market sentiment, and industrial support drive the prices of some metals and other commodities, while supply - demand fundamentals and macro factors also affect different sectors [1]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - The market adjustment provides an opportunity to layout for the index's rise next year. Traders can establish long positions during the adjustment and use the futures' discount structure [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank's warning on interest - rate risks suppresses short - term upward movement [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, market sentiment, and industrial support, the price is strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: With positive macro sentiment and limited industrial drive, the price rebounds [1]. - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The Fed's internal differences cause macro sentiment to fluctuate. The domestic situation has improved slightly, but the oversupply pattern remains, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations improve the macro sentiment. Indonesia restricts nickel - related projects, and with production cuts in intermediate products, the price is expected to recover in the short term. The long - term surplus pattern remains [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations improve the sentiment. The price of raw material nickel - iron is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price rebounds slightly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's differences cause macro sentiment to be unstable. Supply has not recovered, and the price is strong. There is demand pressure, and the long - term trend is bullish [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The probability of a December interest - rate cut is high, but geopolitical tensions may ease, and the number of unemployment - benefit applicants has decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is resuming, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production is decreasing, and organic silicon is jointly cutting production [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and energy - storage demand is strong. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: The industrial off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is loose. The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the price has limited upward space. Traders can participate in virtual value accumulation strategies [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good. The direct demand is okay, but the supply is high, and the inventory is increasing, so the price rebound is limited [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The short - term production profit is poor, but the cost support is strong. The supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the price rebound is limited [1]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation provides support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment drives strong price fluctuations [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The price increase faces resistance, and it generally follows the glass market [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. The downstream is expected to start restocking around mid - December. Unilateral trading should be short - term, and long - term investment needs further observation [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production in the origin and reduced exports. Domestic purchases are large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor refutation of the US delaying the reduction of incentives for imported bio - fuel raw materials creates a bullish expectation difference, supporting the price of US soybeans and soybean oil. The domestic basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, but foreign capital's long - position trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong bumper - harvest expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost of lint. The downstream start - up is low, but there is a rigid restocking demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend of raw sugar [1]. - **Bean粕**: The short - term supply is tight, and the spot price is firm. The market should pay attention to farmers' selling rhythm. The M05 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. - **Pulp**: Old warehouse receipts are being cancelled, and new ones are being registered. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the price is oscillating in the short term [1]. - **Logs**: The fundamental situation is weak, but it has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The current spot price is stable, demand provides support, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December. The Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It generally follows the trend of crude oil in the short term [1]. - **Asphalt**: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, the supply of raw - material crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is high [1]. - **Rubber**: The price of butadiene provides limited support, and refinery overhauls may bring a bullish expectation. High inventory restricts price increases, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in production capacity [1]. - **Short Fiber**: It closely follows the cost trend [1]. - **Styrene**: The export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - dumping and cost [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Some alumina plants have delayed production, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the near - month contracts [1]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical and tariff situation has eased, and the market is expected to be in a state of supply - demand balance. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [1]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose, and the price increase is less than expected [1].

Report Summary 1. Core View - When supply is large and demand lacks concentrated boost, the spot market is weak, and near - month contracts follow the spot with a volatile and bearish trend. Spot prices remain volatile and weak. Recent demand support and unsold fat pigs provide some support, but the sustainability of cold - weather - driven traditional demand needs observation. The overall loss in pig - farming profit is not large, the duration is short, and the de - stocking speed is limited. There is still pressure on the supply - side for pig sales, and although there are local diseases, they are within the normal range. The 01 contract entered the position - limit period one month before delivery this week, and due to concerns about winter pig diseases, the futures price rose. Currently, the 01 contract has a premium over the spot [3]. 2. Key Data 2.1 Spot Prices - On November 26, 2025, the national average pig price was 11.42 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg. Different regions had different price changes, such as Henan at 11.35 yuan/kg (up 0.01 yuan/kg), Hunan at 11.1628 yuan/kg (down 0.25 yuan/kg), etc [3]. 2.2 Futures Prices - LH2601 was at 11,540 yuan, up 125 yuan; LH2603 was at 11,365 yuan, up 70 yuan; LH2605 was at 12,060 yuan, up 65 yuan. The spread between LH2601 and LH2603 was 175 yuan (up 55 yuan) on November 26 [3]. 2.3 Pig - related Data - According to Yongyi data, the average weight of pigs for sale this week was 128.81 kg, an increase of 0.33 kg from last week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Malay palm oil has increasing production and decreasing exports, with significant pressure in the near term, and should be treated bearishly; rapeseed oil is expected to change the supply shortage situation due to the supply expectations of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and there may be a catch - up decline compared to the trend of last year [2] 3. Summary by Related Categories Spot Price - On November 26, 2025, the spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8480, 8360, and 8290 respectively, with a decrease of 80 compared to November 25 [1] - The spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8460, and 8470 respectively, with a decrease of 50 compared to November 25 [1] - The spot prices of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10110, 10160, and 10360 respectively, with decreases of 80, 80, and 110 compared to November 25 [1] Futures Data - On November 26, 2025, the spread between the main soybean and palm oil contracts was - 290, a change of - 74; the spread between the main rapeseed and soybean oil contracts was 1669, a change of - 5 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts were 0, with no change; the soybean oil warehouse receipts were 24625, a decrease of 2596; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3968, a decrease of 3 [1] Production and Export - According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 20, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 10.32% compared to the same period last month [1] - According to ITS, from November 1 - 20, 1 - 15, and 1 - 10, the exports of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 20.5%, 15.5%, and 12.8% respectively compared to the same period last month; according to AmSpec, the corresponding decreases were 14%, 10%, and 10% [1] Inventory - As of November 14, the national palm oil commercial inventory was 65.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a high level in recent years [1] - As of November 14, the national soybean oil commercial inventory was 114.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - The expected rapeseed oil import volume in November is 22.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.3%, due to the concentrated arrival of new - season rapeseed oil from Russia [2] US Soybean Forecast - The 2025/26 US soybean production is forecasted to be 4.266 billion bushels, with a yield per unit area of 53.1 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 0.304 billion bushels; the export is forecasted to be 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels compared to the September forecast [1]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is titled "Sugar Data Daily" by ITG Guomao Futures [3] - The report date is November 27, 2025 [4] - The analyst is Xie Wei with futures qualification number F03087820 and investment consulting number Z0019508 [4] Group 2: Market Data Domestic Sugar Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the price on November 26, 2025, was 5615 yuan, with no change, and the basis to 2601 was 236, up 8 [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the price was 5800 yuan, with no change, and the basis to 2601 was 321, up 8 [4] - SR01 price was 5379 yuan, down 8; SR05 price was 5309 yuan, down 16; SR01 - 05 spread was 70, up 8 [4] International Market - The exchange rate of RMB to USD was 7.1018, down 0.0166; the exchange rate of Brazilian Real to RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of Indian Rupee to RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - ICE raw sugar主力 price was 14.9, unchanged; London white sugar主力 price was 573, up 3; Brent crude oil主力 price was 61.9, unchanged [4] Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting pressure on raw sugar prices to decline. The supply pressure of domestic new crops has increased year - on - year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] Group 4: Other Data - The domestic sugar industrial inventory and Brazilian sugar out - of - quota import profit data are presented, with the import profit at 2000 [4] - Graphs show historical data of Liuzhou - 01 basis and Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 month spread [5]

1. 26日玻璃偏强,而纯碱震荡。 2. 玻璃方面,近期资金博弈剧烈,价格大幅波动。基本面上供给整体持 稳。淡季来临,整体终端需求保有韧性,库存并未大幅累积。当前玻璃佔 值并不高。同时煤炭价格偏强,成本有支撑。中期供给过剩格局延续,价 格上行阻力大。 行情分析 3、纯碱更多跟随玻璃,但供需相对一般,价格承压。 以区间震荡思路为主。 交易策略 细做生存 0000 250 200 8000 60000 100 2000 = 2024 = 2025 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性 任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者 需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客, 推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我 将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。〔 ITC国贸期货 TEL 3500 FE 国贸期货有限公i 流的衍生品综合服务商 入 期 市 市 官 方 网 站 需 有 线 HA 谨 风 www.itf ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - A-shares lack a clear upward trend due to a relatively vacuum macro environment, with low trading volume. Short - term market divergence will be digested through index fluctuations, waiting for a new driving force to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. - Market sentiment is volatile, leading to price fluctuations in various commodities such as metals, energy, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Industry Stock Index - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market divergence will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for further upward movement [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks limit the upside [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate due to repeated market sentiment [1]. - **Aluminum**: High - level fluctuations are expected due to limited industrial driving forces and repeated macro sentiment [1]. - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, with a weak fundamental pattern. Prices will fluctuate around the cost line, and attention should be paid to ore prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to short - term repeated macro sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals, but short - term mine premiums are stable. With planned production cuts in Indonesian intermediate products and slightly improved macro conditions, nickel prices have a short - term repair expectation. The medium - to - long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weakening, and social inventories are increasing. Steel mill production cuts in November are limited. Futures prices will fluctuate, and short - term operations are recommended. Consider light - position participation in long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategies and look for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - **Tin**: Short - term supply has not recovered, and unexpected risks have increased, leading to stronger prices. However, due to existing demand pressure, caution is needed when chasing high prices. The medium - to - long - term outlook is positive, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1]. Precious Metals - With the probability of a December interest rate cut rising again and the news of the Ukraine - Russia peace agreement, precious metals are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. New Energy - related Commodities - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is recovering, while southwest production is weaker than in previous years. Polysilicon production is decreasing, and organic silicon is jointly reducing production. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term, and terminal installation is increasing in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices are fluctuating, and market sentiment has faded due to the long - awaited non - implementation of anti - involution policies [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel Products - **Rebar**: Although the valuation is low, the price increase is limited due to the off - season and a short - term macro vacuum. Consider participating in the virtual value accumulation strategy [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract has upward potential. The basis is acceptable, and consider participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage or using option strategies [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Direct demand is okay with cost support, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. Coking Products - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream restocking may start around mid - December. Adopt a short - term strategy for unilateral trading, and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Cash out hedging short positions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil**: The rumor of the US delaying the reduction of import bio - fuel raw material subsidies is refuted, which is bullish for US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic high - pressure crushing may lead to a stable - to - weak basis, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price of new cotton, but there is no clear upward driver. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend of raw sugar [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term supply is tight, leading to a price rebound. However, selling pressure is postponed, so be cautious about being bullish and pay attention to farmers' selling and logistics [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US. If there are no significant weather problems, the market will gradually turn to trading the South American new - crop harvest pressure from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. - **Pulp**: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. Demand recovery needs to be verified, and prices will fluctuate in the short - term [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation is weak but has been priced in. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Pig**: Spot prices are stable, but there is still room for capacity release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US is increasing sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Follows crude oil in the short - term, with the probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan construction demand being falsified, and sufficient supply of Ma Rui crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: Raw material cost support is strong, the basis is low, and intermediate inventories may increase [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price of butadiene has limited support, and refinery overhauls may bring a positive outlook. However, high inventory restricts price increases, and the synthetic valuation is low. Pay attention to the subsequent rebound [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene prices support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Follows the decline of crude oil prices, with slightly stronger cost support from rising coal prices, but new device production expectations suppress price increases [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Follows cost fluctuations closely [1]. - **Styrene**: Asian benzene prices are weak, and US pure benzene prices are rising. The price will fluctuate [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, with cost - end support [1]. - **PP**: High supply pressure, weak downstream demand improvement, and strong cost support [1]. - **PVC**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weakening, and orders are poor [1]. - **Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine**: There are issues such as delivery schedules, overhauls, and inventory pressures. The absolute price is low, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **PG**: Geopolitical and tariff relations are easing, and the market is in a range - bound state. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices and the decline of far - month spreads [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: December price increases are lower than expected, and the peak - season price increase expectation has been priced in early. The monthly shipping capacity supply is relatively loose [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 25th, the broader market oscillated and rebounded throughout the day with a mid - day pull - back, and the ChiNext Index rose over 3% intraday. Nearly 4300 stocks closed in the green, and nearly a hundred stocks hit the daily limit. CPO, fiberglass, and electrolyte concepts led the gains, while aquaculture, civil aviation, and CSSC sectors declined against the trend [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review Index Performance - The closing price of the SSE 50 was 2968.2023, with a turnover of 42.41 billion yuan, a trading volume of 4490.4047 million, and a daily increase of 0.60%. The CSI 300 had a closing price of 4041.74, a turnover of 169.57 billion yuan, a trading volume of 7249.9471 million, and a daily increase of 0.95%. The CSI 1000 had a closing price of 6980.32, a turnover of 245.43 billion yuan, and a trading volume of 1.31 billion [3] CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation - For SSE 50 options, the trading volume of call options was 2.37 million contracts, put options 1.53 million contracts, and the total trading volume 5.79 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 3.41 million contracts, put options 3.85 million contracts, and the total open interest 16.77 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.55 and an open interest PCR of 0.70. For CSI 300 options, the trading volume of call options was 6.13 million contracts, put options 0.63 million contracts, and the total trading volume 9.97 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 10.09 million contracts, put options 6.68 million contracts, and the total open interest 22.71 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.66 and an open interest PCR of 0.72. For CSI 1000 options, the trading volume of call options was 13.21 million contracts, put options 27.95 million contracts, and the total trading volume 9.49 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 13.31 million contracts, put options 14.65 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.91 [3] 3.2 Volatility Analysis - **SSE 50 Volatility**: Analyzed historical volatility and the volatility cone, and presented the volatility smile curve and next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4] - **CSI 300 Volatility**: Conducted historical volatility and volatility cone analysis, and showed the volatility smile curve and next - month at - the - money implied volatility [4] - **CSI 1000 Volatility**: Analyzed historical volatility and the volatility cone, and provided the volatility smile curve and next - month at - the - money implied volatility [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Short - term focus on China's purchase of US soybeans and South American weather, with expected support for the US market and a sideways movement for the domestic market. - Without significant weather issues, the market is expected to start trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop from December to January, which may drag down the soybean meal futures pricing [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: On November 25th, the basis in Dalian was 77 (down 2), in Tianjin was 47 (down 2), in Dongguan and Zhanjiang was - 23 (down 2), and in Fangcheng was - 33 (down 2). The basis in Rizhao and Zhangjiagang was - 13 (down 2) [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: In Guangdong, the basis was up 19, and MJ - 5 was 193 (down 3) [4]. - **Spread Data**: The RM1 - 5 spread was 46 (down 15), the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot spread in Guangdong was 300 (up 17), and the futures spread of the main contract was 539 (down 20) [5]. 3.2 Supply Situation - **South American Production Forecast**: According to CONB data, the forecasted production of Brazil's new crop in 25/26 is 177.6 million tons. As of November 15th, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 69.0% (last week: 68.4%, last year: 73.8%, five - year average: 67.2%). As of November 13th, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 16% (last week: 7%, last year: 25%) [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: The purchase progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. The domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be relatively loose, with an expected inventory reduction from November to December [7][8]. 3.3 Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short - term, supporting the demand for soybean meal. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, with strong downstream far - month trading volume and good提货 performance [8]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Domestic Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, with an expected inventory reduction from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Date: November 26, 2025 [5] - Data Sources: Clarksons, Wind [5] Group 2: Freight Index Current and Previous Values - Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) current value: 1394, previous value: 1451, change: -3.98% [5] - China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) current value: 1123, previous value: 1094, change: 2.63% [5] - SCFI - West Coast of the United States current value: 1645, previous value: 1823, change: -9.76% [5] - SCFIS - West Coast of the United States current value: 1107, previous value: 1238, change: -10.58% [5] - SCFI - East Coast of the United States current value: 2384, previous value: 2600, change: -8.31% [5] - SCFI - Northwest Europe current value: 1367, previous value: 1417, change: -3.53% [5] - SCFIS - Northwest Europe current value: 1357, previous value: 1504, change: -9.77% [5] - SCFI - Mediterranean current value: 2055, previous value: 2029, change: 1.28% [5] Contract Information - Contract EC2506 current value: 1338.0, previous value: 1358.2, change: -1.49% [5] - Contract EC2608 current value: 1464.0, previous value: 1488.1, change: -1.62% [5] - Contract EC2610 current value: 1108.0, previous value: 1110.0, change: -0.18% [5] - Contract EC2512 current value: 1650.0, previous value: 1779.7, change: -7.29% [5] - Contract EC2602 current value: 1453.5, previous value: 1568.6, change: -7.34% [5] - Contract EC2604 current value: 1126.4, previous value: 1142.1, change: -1.37% [5] Position and Spread - EC2606 position current value: 1629, previous value: 1534, change: 95 [5] - EC2608 position current value: 1399, previous value: 1325, change: 74 [5] - EC2610 position current value: 2556, previous value: 2597, change: -41 [5] - EC2512 position current value: 6454, previous value: 6862, change: -408 [5] - EC2602 position current value: 48279, previous value: 43333, change: 4946 [5] - EC2604 position current value: 17016, previous value: 16096, change: 920 [5] - 12 - 02 spread current value: 196.5, previous value: 211.1, change: -14.6 [5] - 12 - 04 spread current value: 523.6, previous value: 637.6, change: -114.0 [5] - 02 - 04 spread current value: 327.1, previous value: 426.5, change: -99.4 [5] Group 3: Market News - The last trading Monday in February 2026 for container shipping index (European line) futures EC2602 is February 9 [6] - Iran carried out a maritime attack on a suspicious target approaching Israel in the Gulf of Oman [6] - The ship CMA CGM JULES VERNE/ MEX1 is actually passing through the Red Sea/Suez Canal directly instead of going around the Cape of Good Hope as scheduled [6] Group 4: EC Market Analysis Market Summary - The market is in a downward trend, mainly due to some airlines reducing December prices [7] Spot Prices - In early December, MSK quoted 2500, HPL quoted 2350, 00CL quoted 2300, CMA quoted 3550, EM3 quoted 3100, ONE quoted 2450, and MSC quoted 2450 [7] Market Logic - December freight rate implementation: If leading shipping companies like Maersk maintain quotes between 2400 - 2600 dollars/FEU and there is no large - scale overbooking, the EC near - month contract will continue to be under pressure [7] - January price increase letter implementation: Shipping companies plan to raise prices again in January, but if cargo volume remains weak or shipping company quotes diverge more, the price increase will be harder to implement, limiting the upside of the 02 contract [7] - Seasonal cargo volume changes: December下旬 to January上旬 is the traditional peak season. If there is overbooking, it may briefly boost freight rates [7] Outlook - Short - term strategy is to wait and see, focusing on December freight rate implementation and January price increase letter effectiveness [7] - If December freight rates are implemented at 80% of the quote, the EC2602 contract may test the 1500 - 1700 point range; if price support is successful, the 02 contract may rise to 1800 - 1900 points [7] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see, as the 12 - contract is gradually losing trading value [8]