固定收益 | 专题报告 强赎触发频繁，博弈收益可观 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 14 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | 再议本轮债市调整原因：固定收益市场周 | 2025-09-09 | | --- | --- | | 观察 | | | 土储专项债供给增多，对城投债务压力缓 | 2025-09-08 | | 释效果有限：信用债市场周观察 | | | 估值回调暂告段落，转债进入震荡慢涨阶 | 2025-09-08 | | 段：可转债市场周观察 | | 风险提示： 可转债风险暴露超预期；可 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [6][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the release of Tesla's next-generation dexterous hand is expected to enhance the flexibility and functionality of the dexterous hand industry, leading to an optimistic outlook for the industry chain [3][9]. - The dexterous hand technology has undergone significant iterations, with Tesla's third-generation model achieving 22 degrees of freedom, which is a substantial increase from the first generation's 11 degrees [9][10]. - The report emphasizes that the advancement in dexterous hand technology will not only improve product value but also drive the overall industry towards higher degrees of freedom and functionality [14]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report tracks the robotics industry, particularly focusing on the dexterous hand segment, which is poised for upgrades and increased market activity [1][5]. Technological Advancements - Tesla's dexterous hand has evolved through multiple iterations, with the latest model featuring 26 actuators per arm, significantly enhancing its operational capabilities [10][9]. - The integration of multiple sensors in dexterous hands is expected to create a multi-modal data collection platform, which will improve AI training efficiency and model generalization capabilities [13][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several investment targets within the dexterous hand industry, including Zhenyu Technology (300953, Buy), Hanwei Technology (300007, Not Rated), Nanshan Zhishang (300918, Not Rated), and Mingzhi Electric (603728, Not Rated) [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 48.48 CNY, based on a 24x PE for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated stable performance with a revenue of 46.6 billion CNY in H1 2025, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 12.0 billion CNY, up 7.4% year-on-year [10]. - The dual growth drivers are the respiratory and blood glucose monitoring businesses, with the respiratory product line seeing over 40% growth due to continuous R&D and improved sales channels [10]. - The company is actively expanding overseas, achieving 6.1 billion CNY in international revenue in H1 2025, a 26.6% increase year-on-year, with a focus on respiratory therapy products [10]. - The company is investing in AI wearable technology to create a health management ecosystem, integrating various health monitoring devices to enhance brand loyalty [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 8,669 million CNY, 9,971 million CNY, and 11,302 million CNY, respectively, with a growth rate of 14.6%, 15.0%, and 13.4% [5]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 2,020 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 11.9% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 2.02 CNY, with subsequent years projected at 2.37 CNY and 2.81 CNY [3][5].

Group 1: Inflation Trends - In August, the core CPI and PPI both showed year-on-year improvement, driven by simultaneous policy efforts on both supply and demand sides[6] - The core CPI year-on-year growth has expanded for four consecutive months, with industrial consumer goods prices improving due to consumption promotion policies[6] - The CPI in August was -0.4%, while the core CPI was 0.9%, indicating a significant divergence primarily due to the drag from pork prices[6] Group 2: PPI Dynamics - The PPI year-on-year decline has narrowed for the first time since March, indicating a shift towards more positive signals driven by domestic demand[6] - Key sectors like black metal smelting saw PPI improvements, with year-on-year declines of -4% compared to -10% previously, reflecting better pricing and production conditions[6] - Emerging industries are expected to continue supporting PPI growth, with sectors like electronic materials and smart drones showing stable performance[6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Policy Impact - Upgrading consumption demand remains a crucial support for PPI, with certain sectors like sports equipment and nutritional food manufacturing showing year-on-year PPI growth of no less than 0.9%[6] - Policies aimed at enhancing consumer sentiment, such as "old-for-new" exchanges, are expected to further stimulate service consumption[6] - The overall external trade environment remains challenging, but domestic demand is anticipated to be the main driver for future recovery in both CPI and PPI[6]

云南白药 000538.SZ 公司研究 | 中报点评 工业稳步增长，管线有序推进 云南白药 2025 年中报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 39,111 | 40,033 | 42,417 | 44,281 | 46,777 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.2% | 2.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4,831 | 5,712 | 6,058 | 6,667 | 7,333 | | 同比增长 (%) | 43.3% | 18.2% | 6.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 4,094 | 4,749 | 5,110 | 5,605 | 6,145 | | 同比增长 (%) | 36.4% | 16.0% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | | 每股收益（元） | 2.29 | 2.66 | 2.86 | 3.14 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company's fundamentals are gradually improving, and high dividend expectations are likely to continue [2][10]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast slightly, expecting earnings per share of 0.60, 0.67, and 0.77 yuan for 2025-2027 [4][11]. - The target price is set at 9.60 yuan based on a 16x PE valuation for 2025 [4][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 5,315 in 2023, decreasing to 4,559 in 2024, then gradually increasing to 5,443 by 2027, with a CAGR of 7.5% from 2025 to 2027 [4][13]. - Operating profit is expected to decline from 662 million yuan in 2023 to 490 million yuan in 2024, before recovering to 751 million yuan in 2027 [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 572 million yuan in 2023 to 433 million yuan in 2024, then increase to 639 million yuan by 2027 [4][13]. - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with a cash dividend ratio of 115% expected in 2024 [10]. Operational Insights - The company has seen improvements in terminal sales in July and August, with expectations of nearly double-digit growth year-on-year [10]. - The company is one of the early adopters in the industry to optimize channels and inventory, leading to improved operational quality [10]. - The establishment of the Luolai Smart Industrial Park is expected to enhance supply chain capabilities and operational efficiency [10]. Market Position - The company is considered relatively attractive within the textile and apparel industry, with domestic e-commerce and direct sales being key growth drivers [10][11]. - The U.S. furniture business is under pressure but is expected to show marginal improvement starting from Q3 2025 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience, achieving a revenue of 21.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 3.63 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year [11]. - The dual-engine growth from the pharmaceutical and health product segments is driving performance, with the pharmaceutical segment growing by 10.8% year-on-year, contributing significantly to overall revenue [11]. - The company is actively enhancing its innovation pipeline, with 16 major traditional Chinese medicine projects under secondary development and 37 ongoing projects, including innovative drug development focused on societal needs [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 39,111 in 2023, projected to reach 42,417 in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0% [6]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): 4,094 in 2023, expected to grow to 5,110 in 2025, reflecting a 7.6% increase [6]. - Earnings per share (yuan): 2.29 in 2023, projected to increase to 2.86 in 2025 [6]. - Gross margin (%): Expected to rise from 26.5% in 2023 to 28.9% in 2025 [6]. - Net margin (%): Anticipated to improve from 10.5% in 2023 to 12.0% in 2025 [6]. - Return on equity (%): Expected to increase from 10.4% in 2023 to 12.7% in 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [4] Core Insights - The green polyester industry is expected to enter a rapid growth phase driven by strong demand for low-carbon consumption [10][35] - New technologies in the green polyester sector are anticipated to unlock significant development potential, moving beyond the limitations of traditional recycling methods [12][21] - The biological method in recycling technology shows distinct advantages over chemical methods, with a focus on lower energy consumption and higher flexibility in product forms [29][34] - The development of bio-based materials is gaining significant attention and is on the verge of commercialization, with key players making substantial investments [35][39] Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Development of the Green Polyester Industry - The green transformation of plastics is primarily through recycling and bio-based materials, with polyester being the fastest-growing type [10][12] - Current recycling methods are limited, but new technologies are expected to create new opportunities in the industry [10][12] 2. New Technologies in Green Polyester - The physical recycling method is mature but limited to bottle flakes, while new technologies can expand raw material sources significantly [12][22] - Polyester's properties facilitate technological advancements, making it easier to find bio-based alternatives [21][23] 3. Advantages of Biological Methods in Recycling - Chemical recycling methods are established but have limitations in temperature and product forms, while biological methods are entering commercialization with favorable market feedback [29][30] - Companies like Carbios and domestic firms are leading the way in biological recycling technology [34][35] 4. High Attention on Bio-based Materials - The development of bio-based materials, particularly using FDCA to replace PTA, is gaining traction with significant investments from major industry players [35][39] - The commercialization of bio-based polyester is expected to happen soon, driven by clear application scenarios [35][36] 5. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Wankai New Materials and Xin Fengming are positioned well in the green polyester market, with strategic investments and projects underway [35][40] - The report highlights the potential for high returns due to the strong demand for green polyester products [35][40]

Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. economy remains weak despite interest rate cuts, indicating ongoing economic challenges[6] - The focus is on the timeline for the Senate's approval of Stephen Miran's appointment to the Federal Reserve before the September FOMC meeting on September 16[7] Group 2: Political Dynamics - The Senate's process for confirming presidential appointments does not face filibuster issues, allowing for a simple majority vote[7] - The Republican Party is considering using the "Reid precedent" to expedite the approval process for Miran's nomination[7] Group 3: Proposed Approval Methods - Proposal 1: "En bloc" confirmation could allow multiple nominees to be voted on simultaneously, potentially speeding up the process[7] - Proposal 2: Reducing debate time from two hours to a few minutes for less controversial positions, aiming to eliminate delays[7] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - There is a risk of unexpected personnel changes at the Federal Reserve due to the Trump administration's influence in the second half of the year[4] - Close monitoring of the Senate's progress on personnel approval reforms is recommended ahead of the September FOMC meeting[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is approaching a domestic turning point while maintaining steady growth overseas. The first half of 2025 saw a revenue of 16.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.07 billion yuan, down 33.0% year-on-year. Domestic revenue was 8.41 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year, attributed to extended income recognition cycles from public tenders. However, the third quarter is expected to show significant improvement as tender activities gradually recover [9]. - The company’s international business achieved revenue of 8.33 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year, benefiting from the continuous breakthrough in high-end customer segments and the gradual improvement of local platforms [9]. - The company has maintained high R&D investment, with 1.78 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 10.6% of revenue. It has established a digital medical ecosystem and launched several new products in the in vitro diagnostics and medical imaging sectors [9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Based on the mid-2025 report, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 9.64, 10.81, and 12.40 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 10.63, 12.13, and 13.77 yuan. The target price is set at 308.48 yuan, based on a 32 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [3][6]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 34.93 billion yuan in 2023 to 48.98 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.3% [5][11]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 63.3% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 30.2% [5][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 35.6% in 2023 to 29.3% in 2025, reflecting the impact of increased competition and market conditions [5][11]. Market Performance - As of September 9, 2025, the company’s stock price was 241 yuan, with a 52-week high of 344.56 yuan and a low of 203.88 yuan [6].