2025 年 05 月 25 日 震荡偏弱，但下行风险或有限 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 杨勇 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1450518010002 yangyong1@essence.com.cn 相关报告 | 或仅是整理，蓄势以待机 | 2025-05-18 | | --- | --- | | 结构重于仓位，继续关注先 | 2025-05-11 | | 进制造 | | | 红五月可期，还看科技与先 | 2025-05-05 | | 进制造 | | | 美元阶段见底，科技有望崛 | 2025-04-27 | | 起 | | | 低位震荡，下行风险或有限 | 2025-04-20 | 本期要点：震荡偏弱，但下行风险或有限 上周五下午市场出现明显回落，显示市场在近期的震荡巩固过程中走 势偏弱。从周期分析模型的视角看，本轮自 4 月初以来的反弹或无已 经完全结束的充分证据；从模型当下给出的本轮调整的性质看，或有 望最多回到 4 月底 5 月初的震荡区间，随后再重新开始一波上行走 势，只有在那波上行趋势再次衰竭的时候才能判断本轮反弹是否真正 结束了。 从缠论的视角看，自去年四季度以来，大盘整体处于一个大的 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of AI as a central theme for technology investment over the next 3-5 years, suggesting that the semiconductor sector could mirror the automotive industry's growth potential [2][10] - The report identifies a significant shift in technology investment strategies, advocating for a flexible approach to adapt to market changes, particularly in the context of AI and semiconductor investments [2][10] - The report outlines a framework for technology investment, categorizing it into three parts: theoretical foundations and four stages of investment, the fate of leading companies, and the N-shaped pricing pattern [3][9][14] Group 2 - The N-shaped pricing pattern is highlighted as a critical concept in technology investment, characterized by significant volatility and requiring a high level of investor understanding [3][24] - The report discusses the historical performance of companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and CATL, illustrating the N-shaped price movements and the importance of timing in investment decisions [3][25][31] - The report proposes that successful technology investment hinges on understanding the internal dynamics of the industry and effectively timing the investment at the C point of the N-shaped curve [4][29][33] Group 3 - The report introduces a two-wave investment model, where the first wave represents the breakthrough phase (0 to 1) and the second wave signifies explosive growth (1 to 100), applicable to sectors like AI and new energy vehicles [4][42][49] - The three essential elements for technology growth are identified as leading companies, breakthrough products, and a clear industry chain, which together drive the first wave of investment [4][39][43] - The report outlines a four-stage investment process that includes the emergence of leading companies, infrastructure investment, formation of the industry chain, and addressing supply-demand gaps [4][45][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AGI is progressing towards a stage of autonomous action, focusing on two main directions: Agent and embodied intelligence. The technology has evolved past the "perception-thought" application threshold and is moving towards "autonomous action" [16][18]. - The rapid iteration of models since 2023 has significantly enhanced the capabilities of Agent products in perception, planning, and memory. Key advancements include the transition of models from single text to multimodal capabilities, improved reasoning abilities, and a substantial reduction in model usage costs [23][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Technology Layer: Significant Evolution of Models and Tools - AGI is moving towards autonomous action, indicating a shift towards Agent and embodied intelligence [16]. - The key technologies have evolved, with a focus on enhancing reliability and standardization [19]. - The current phase is characterized as a transition from workflow to Agent, analogous to the rule-driven phase of autonomous driving [3][50]. 2. Industry Chain: Early Commercialization Models - The report identifies three main lines of evolution in the industry chain: the open-source vs. closed-source model debate, the competition among tech giants for potential value points, and the entry of small and medium enterprises into the tool layer [56]. - The competition between open-source and closed-source models is crucial for the commercialization capabilities of major model vendors [56][58]. - Major tech companies are actively entering the AI Agent space, focusing on leading reasoning models and various tool integrations [61]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the evolution of AI technology will benefit infrastructure for computing power, particularly in training vertical long-tail models and inference computing [11]. - It emphasizes the importance of hardware support for local deployment of Agents on devices like smartphones and PCs, which may lead to a replacement cycle [11]. - The report also highlights the need for personalized solutions in private deployment services, indicating a gap in current offerings [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" [8] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector experienced a significant seasonal decline in sales in April, with a month-on-month drop of approximately 40% in both sales area and sales amount compared to March [2] - Construction activities are still awaiting improvement, with new construction area down by 23.8% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, indicating a continued supply contraction in the industry [3] - Investment pressure remains, with real estate development investment down by 10.3% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, reflecting a slowdown in construction activities and overall economic drag from the real estate sector [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - From January to April 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 280 million square meters (YoY -2.8%), and the sales amount was 2.7 trillion yuan (YoY -3.2%) [2] - In April alone, the sales area was 60 million square meters (YoY -2.1%), and the sales amount was 60 billion yuan (YoY -6.7%) [2] Construction Activity - New construction area from January to April 2025 was 180 million square meters (YoY -23.8%), with completion area at 160 million square meters (YoY -16.9%) [3] - The construction area remained low, with a significant year-on-year decline in both new starts and completions in April [3] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment completed in the first four months of 2025 was 2.8 trillion yuan (YoY -10.3%), with residential investment at 2.1 trillion yuan (YoY -9.6%) [4] - The investment decline is attributed to reduced construction activity and a lagging real estate investment growth compared to fixed asset investment [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that may reverse their current difficulties, such as Jindi Group and New Town Holdings, as well as leading firms maintaining land acquisition intensity like China Merchants Shekou and Poly Developments [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 8.68 CNY, based on a 19x PE for 2025 [4][9][13]. Core Insights - The company has shown a significant recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 0.59 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 196.22% [1][3]. - The company continues to pursue a global strategy, achieving a revenue of 84.49 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 5.94%, despite challenging economic conditions [2][9]. - The European market has been a standout performer, with overseas revenue reaching 67.50 billion CNY in 2024, up 6.68% year-on-year, and the company expects continued growth in this region [2][8]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue from mattress sales was 44.15 billion CNY, up 10.95% year-on-year, while other product lines showed mixed results [2][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 36.85%, a decrease of 1.50 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 39.37% in Q1 2025 [3][11]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 11.45%, 11.47%, and 10.30% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected to reach 2.61 billion CNY in 2025 [9][12][13]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic memory foam mattress market, focusing on global capacity expansion and brand internationalization [9][10]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs has been limited, and the company is leveraging its local production capabilities in the U.S. to enhance market share [8][9]. - The company plans to strengthen regional market development and channel construction to enhance competitiveness and drive stable growth in its ODM business [8][9].

Economic Indicators - In April, industrial added value year-on-year was 6.1%, a significant drop of 1.6 percentage points from March, indicating a slowdown in industrial production[4] - Fixed asset investment in April grew by 3.5% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from March, with infrastructure investment declining by 3 percentage points to 9.6%[7] - Real estate investment in April saw a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%, a slight decline of 1.3 percentage points from March, with new construction area down by 22.1%[11] Consumer and Market Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but still at a relatively high level[13] - Social financing in April grew by 8.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, primarily driven by government bond issuance[16] - The A-share market has shifted from initial panic over economic slowdown to a focus on the extent of economic deceleration, with confidence in the economy improving for the second half of the year[20] Tariff Impact and Policy Response - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs has led to a noticeable decline in total demand, with April's PPI showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%[5] - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have eased expectations regarding tariffs, suggesting a potential moderation in the negative impact on the real economy[5] - The central bank's likelihood of significantly tightening monetary policy appears limited due to greater downward pressure on the economy compared to earlier in the year[22]

2025 年 05 月 19 日 农林牧渔 气温升高消费增幅受限，猪价或震荡偏 弱 生猪养殖：气温升高消费增幅受限，猪价或震荡偏弱 价格端：本周生猪均价 14.77 元/kg，周环比-0.27%，两周环比-0.07%； 仔猪价格 630 元/头，周环比-2.63%，两周环比-1.47%。根据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 20.84 元/kg，周环比+0.07%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 16.91 万头，周环比变动-2.49%。 周观点：周内全国均价震荡偏弱，整体来看，本周终端需求表现平淡， 屠企白条反馈走货难度较强，维持对价格的下压操作，可供应端口尚 未呈现明显节奏加快表现，从而传导至屠企端口竞价较为谨慎，所以 本周日间价格波动幅度不大。短期来看，气温升高拖累消费整体增幅 空间受限，不过从供给端口来看，头部集团、放养公司以及二次育肥， 均存在一定增量空间，所以供需对抗预期来看，供给端议价话语权或 有下降，所以预计近期行情维持偏弱运行。 家禽养殖：白羽肉鸡久稳小跌，分割品强硬挺价 周观点：据我的钢铁网显示，本周种蛋价格偏弱势运行为主。受鸡苗 价格弱势影响，种蛋市场交投不快，企业上孵意愿偏弱，且种 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 8.68 CNY, based on a 19x PE for 2025 [4][9][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 8.449 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.94%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -151 million CNY, a decline of 242.04% year-on-year [2][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.043 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.31%, and a net profit of 59 million CNY, up 196.22% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is focusing on global capacity and brand internationalization, with significant performance in the European market, which has seen double-digit growth for two consecutive years [2][9]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's mattress business generated 4.415 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 10.95% year-on-year, while the bedding business saw a decline of 4.08% to 596 million CNY [2][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 36.85%, down 1.50 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 39.37% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.84 percentage points [3][7]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was -2.12%, with a significant recovery to 2.59% in Q1 2025 [7][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading domestic memory foam mattress brand, benefiting from its global production layout and brand internationalization strategy [9][11]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs has been limited, and the company is leveraging its local production advantages in the U.S. to capture market share [8][9]. - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 9.416 billion CNY, 10.497 billion CNY, and 11.578 billion CNY, with expected growth rates of 11.45%, 11.47%, and 10.30% respectively [10][12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market - B" [5] Core Insights - The issuance of special bonds remains high, and the industry fundamentals are expected to improve due to increased government financing and infrastructure investment [2][16] - The central government has issued guidelines to accelerate urban renewal actions, which will likely boost infrastructure investment and benefit construction companies focused on municipal projects [2][17] - The overall financial indicators for construction enterprises are anticipated to improve, driven by a more proactive fiscal policy and the acceleration of infrastructure funding [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The central bank reported that as of April, the broad money (M2) balance was 325.17 trillion yuan (yoy +8%), and the narrow money (M1) balance was 109.14 trillion yuan (yoy +1.5%) [16] - The total social financing stock was 424.0 trillion yuan (yoy +8.7%), with a net financing of government bonds amounting to 4.85 trillion yuan (yoy +3.58 trillion yuan) [16] - The issuance of special bonds by local governments in the first four months totaled 20.48 billion yuan, 39.19 billion yuan, 36.34 billion yuan, and 23.01 billion yuan, with April's issuance up 161% year-on-year [16] Market Performance - The construction industry rose by 0.77% from May 12 to May 16, underperforming the CSI 300 index which increased by 1.12% [18] - The chemical engineering sector showed the highest growth at 3.36%, while municipal engineering also performed well [18] Key Focus Stocks - Recommended stocks include major state-owned construction enterprises such as China State Construction, China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, and China Railway Group, which are currently undervalued [2][11][12] - The report highlights the potential for growth in companies involved in urban renewal and infrastructure projects, particularly those with strong financial health and market positioning [2][12] Company Announcements - Significant contracts were awarded, including a 7.88 billion yuan contract by China Nuclear Engineering and a 78.80 billion yuan contract by Shaanxi Construction [29] Industry Valuation - As of May 16, the construction and decoration industry had a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.75 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.77, indicating a slight increase from the previous week [24] - The report identifies the lowest P/E ratios among major construction companies, with China Railway Group at 5.29 and China State Construction at 5.09 [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy-A" investment rating [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading domestic ADAS chip manufacturer, focusing on high-level intelligent driving solutions, with significant growth potential driven by the increasing demand for advanced driving assistance systems [1][2]. - The market for intelligent driving chips and algorithms in China is projected to exceed 60 billion RMB by 2030, with a notable shift towards higher-level autonomous driving features [2][39]. - The company has successfully established a strong customer base and competitive advantages through its strategic focus on local service and cost-effectiveness, enabling it to capture a leading market share in the domestic passenger vehicle intelligent driving chip sector [3][13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved into a leading player in the domestic ADAS chip market since its establishment in 2015, focusing exclusively on intelligent driving since 2019 [1][13]. - By the end of 2024, the company is expected to have shipped over 7 million units of its Journey series chips, achieving a market share of 33.97% in the domestic passenger vehicle intelligent driving chip market [1][13]. Market Potential - The penetration rate of L2 ADAS is nearing its ceiling, while the mid-to-high-level autonomous driving market presents new growth opportunities [2][39]. - The intelligent driving chip market in China is projected to reach approximately 20 billion RMB by 2025 and 50 billion RMB by 2030, with urban NOA chip market space estimated at 150 billion RMB in 2025 and 462 billion RMB in 2030 [2][39]. Competitive Landscape - The company is expected to become a leading third-party high-level intelligent driving solution provider, leveraging its strong strategic and algorithmic capabilities [3][39]. - The competitive landscape is shifting as traditional manufacturers show varying levels of willingness to develop in-house solutions, creating opportunities for the company to expand its market presence [3][39]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 35.2 billion RMB in 2025, 54.8 billion RMB in 2026, and 80.2 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 47.6%, 55.8%, and 46.3% respectively [4][9]. - The target market capitalization for the company is set at 105.5 billion RMB based on a 30x price-to-sales ratio for 2025 [4][8].