Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [58]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, slightly below the consensus expectation of 5.48% [10][12]. - Urban retail sales growth has outpaced rural sales for two consecutive months, with urban sales growing by 5.2% and rural sales by 4.7% in April [12][20]. - The report highlights a stable growth trend in both dining and retail sectors, with dining services totaling 4,167 billion yuan, marking a 5.2% year-on-year increase [20][22]. Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - April 2025 retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year, totaling 37,174 billion yuan, which is lower than the expected growth rate [10][9]. - Urban retail sales reached 32,376 billion yuan, growing by 5.2%, while rural sales were 4,798 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.7% [12][10]. Category Performance - Dining and retail sectors continue to show stable growth, with dining services maintaining a total of 4,167 billion yuan, and retail sales reaching 33,007 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [20][22]. - The report notes strong performance in upgrade and real estate-related categories, particularly in gold and jewelry, furniture, and home appliances, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 25.3% and 38.8% [29][22]. Price Trends - Both CPI and PPI showed a year-on-year decline, with CPI at -0.1% and PPI at -2.7% in April 2025, leading to an expanded PPI-CPI gap of -2.6% [31][37]. - Food prices decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, while non-food prices remained stable, indicating a mixed price trend across categories [37][31]. Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate in April 2025 was reported at 5.1%, marking a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [45][46]. - The report indicates that the unemployment rate for migrant workers is lower than that of local residents, with migrant unemployment at 4.8% [50][45]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the liquor sector, particularly high-end and regional leaders, as the white liquor segment is expected to recover due to supportive policies [56]. - It also highlights the beauty and personal care sector as a strong candidate for investment, especially with the upcoming "618" shopping festival showing promising performance for quality domestic brands [56].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月26日 超配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 杜永宏 S0630522040001 dyh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 赖菲虹 S0630525050001 lfhong@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -27% -18% -9% -1% 8% 17% 26% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:医药生物(0737) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.创新药链热度持续，关注中药等细 分板块 — 医 药 生 物 行 业 周 报 （2025/05/12-2025/05/18） 2.关注国产替代、内需方向——医药 生物行业周报（20250331-2025407） 3.关注业绩边际变化——医药生物 行业周报（20250314-20250330） [Table_NewTitle 重磅 ] BD交易再次带动创新药热度 ————医药生物行业周报（2025/05/19-2025/05/25） [table_main] 投资要点： 市场表现： 上周（05月19日- ...

Key Recommendations - Focus on supply and price transmission, with attention to the midstream manufacturing sector [5] - Accelerated capacity adjustment expected, with milk prices likely stabilizing in 2025 [10] Economic Overview - Global equity markets mostly declined as of May 23, with the Hang Seng Index performing well [5] - Oil prices experienced fluctuations, with OPEC+ expected to increase production in July [5] - Domestic interest rates showed divergence, with the 1Y government bond yield decreasing by 0.27 basis points to 1.45% [5] Domestic Equity Market - As of May 23, the average daily trading volume was 11,388 billion yuan, down from 12,325 billion yuan [6] - Among the 31 sectors, 10 sectors rose while 21 fell, with the pharmaceutical sector leading gains at +1.78% [6] Midstream Manufacturing Insights - The U.S. PMI composite output index rose from 50.6 in April to 52.1 in May, indicating a recovery in manufacturing [7] - Domestic industrial processing of crude oil decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in April, indicating a continued destocking process [7] - Economic stimulus policies are expected to be concentrated in May and June, potentially improving consumption expectations [7] Dairy Industry Analysis - The raw milk price cycle is influenced by capacity, demand, and imports, with historical price fluctuations observed since 2008 [10] - In 2024, raw milk production is projected to decrease by 2.8% to 40.79 million tons, with a 4.5% decline in Holstein cow inventory [11] - The dairy industry is facing severe losses, with over 80% of companies affected, but prices are expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025 [12] Investment Recommendations - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in milk prices, benefiting upstream dairy companies like Modern Dairy and Yurun Dairy [14] - Downstream dairy companies such as Yili and New Dairy are expected to improve profitability as milk prices stabilize [14]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of supply and price transmission, focusing on the midstream manufacturing sector, highlighting potential market volatility due to new tariff threats from the U.S. President [8] - The S&P Global U.S. PMI Composite Output Index rose from 50.6 in April to 52.1 in May, indicating a significant increase in manufacturing input inventory, suggesting an active restocking process in the U.S. [8] - Domestic industrial processing of crude oil in April decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, while crude steel production remained flat, indicating a continued destocking process domestically [8] Group 2 - The report notes that the domestic economic stimulus policies are expected to be concentrated in May and June, which may improve consumption expectations and economic data, offsetting potential export downturn risks [8] - Midstream manufacturing is anticipated to benefit from declining raw material costs, with a focus on downstream inventory replenishment and the pricing power of industry leaders [8] - The report indicates that the average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.73% month-on-month but increased by 12% year-on-year, reflecting a mixed performance in the automotive sector [11][19] Group 3 - The report highlights that the domestic equity market saw a daily average trading volume of 1.1388 trillion yuan, with 10 sectors rising and 21 sectors declining during the week ending May 23 [16] - The pharmaceutical and biological sector showed a notable increase of 1.78%, while the computer and machinery sectors experienced declines of 3.02% and 2.48%, respectively [19] - The report suggests that the industrial product futures market saw a slight decline in the South China Industrial Price Index, with specific commodities like coking coal and rebar also experiencing minor drops [11]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - Ningbo Bank (002142) shows significant growth in corporate credit, with cautious management of non-performing loans [5][6][10] - The bank's Q1 2025 revenue reached 18.495 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.417 billion yuan, up 5.76% year-on-year [5][6] - The total assets of Ningbo Bank at the end of Q1 were 3.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.58% [5] Group 2: Industry Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a cyclical adjustment, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in 2025 due to various factors including supply and demand dynamics [13][14] - The total production of raw milk in 2024 was 40.79 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry [14] - The dairy sector has faced severe losses, with over 80% of the industry experiencing negative profitability, leading to a reduction in dairy cow inventory [14][15] Group 3: Market Data - The A-share market shows varied performance across sectors, with the rural commercial banks sector rising by 1.95% while the animal health sector fell by 2.63% [23] - As of May 22, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3380.19 points, reflecting a decrease of 0.22% [27] - The one-year MLF rate is currently at 2%, indicating the central bank's efforts to maintain liquidity in the banking system [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with operating income of 18.495 billion yuan (up 5.63% YoY) and net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 7.417 billion yuan (up 5.76% YoY) [4] - The total assets reached 3.40 trillion yuan (up 17.58% YoY), with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76% (unchanged QoQ) and a provision coverage ratio of 370.54% (down 18.81 percentage points QoQ) [4] - The net interest margin (NIM) for Q1 was 1.80% (down 10 basis points YoY) [4] - The company has shown strong growth in corporate loans, while personal loan growth remains constrained by demand [4] - Deposit growth has been robust, benefiting from regional economic conditions and fiscal support [4] - The company maintains a cautious approach to non-performing loan recognition and disposal, reflecting its prudent management philosophy [5] - Earnings forecasts have been adjusted, with expected operating income for 2025-2027 at 71.402 billion, 76.912 billion, and 84.322 billion yuan respectively [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 operating income was 18.495 billion yuan, a 5.63% increase YoY, and net profit was 7.417 billion yuan, a 5.76% increase YoY [4] - Total assets reached 3.40 trillion yuan, up 17.58% YoY, with an NPL ratio of 0.76% [4] Loan and Deposit Growth - Corporate loan growth was strong, driven by good regional economic demand, while personal loans saw a slight decline [4] - Deposits grew significantly, outpacing M2 growth, supported by strong customer retention and fiscal policies [4] Interest Margin and Investment - The NIM for Q1 was 1.80%, reflecting a slight decrease due to market conditions [4] - Investment income was impacted by market fluctuations, but the company’s professional investment capabilities are expected to provide resilience [5] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with a cautious approach to recognizing and managing non-performing loans [5] - The company reported a provision for loan losses of 4.701 billion yuan, a record high for a single quarter, indicating a proactive stance on risk management [5] Earnings Forecast - Adjusted earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 predict operating income of 71.402 billion, 76.912 billion, and 84.322 billion yuan, with net profits of 29.211 billion, 31.598 billion, and 34.823 billion yuan respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in corporate credit, with a cautious approach to bad debt recognition and disposal [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year increase in operating income of 5.63% to 18.495 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 7.417 billion yuan, up 5.76% year-on-year [4] - Total assets reached 3.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.58% [4] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, while the provision coverage ratio for bad loans decreased by 18.81 percentage points to 370.54% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 operating income was 18.495 billion yuan, a 5.63% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 7.417 billion yuan, up 5.76% year-on-year [4] - Total assets reached 3.4 trillion yuan, marking a 17.58% increase year-on-year [4] - The NPL ratio was stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 370.54% [4][5] Loan and Deposit Growth - Corporate loans saw rapid growth, driven by strong demand in the region, while personal loans remained constrained [4] - The bank's deposit growth outpaced the M2 growth rate, benefiting from strong customer loyalty and favorable economic conditions [4] Interest Margin and Investment - The net interest margin for Q1 was 1.80%, down 10 basis points year-on-year [4] - The bank's financial investments also grew rapidly, driven by government financing [4] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The overall asset quality remained stable, with a cautious approach to bad debt disposal [5] - The bank's bad debt recognition and write-off efforts were significant, with a write-off ratio of 27.37% [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected operating revenues of 71.402 billion, 76.912 billion, and 84.322 billion yuan respectively [5] - The forecasted net profits for the same period are 29.211 billion, 31.598 billion, and 34.823 billion yuan respectively [5] - The projected price-to-book ratios for 2025-2027 are 0.79, 0.72, and 0.65 respectively [5]

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月22日 [table_invest] 超配 行 业 深 度 食 品 饮 -40% -29% -18% -7% 4% 15% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:食品饮料(0734) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] [Table_NewTitle 产能加快]调整，2025年奶价有望企稳 ——乳制品行业深度报告 [table_main] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 料 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] 26% 1.白酒底部区间，大众品关注高成长 性赛道 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2025/5/12-2025/5/18） 2.白酒压力释放，关注高景气品类— —食品饮料行业周报（2025/5/5- 2025/5/11） 3.安井食品（603345）：经营稳健， 方向明确——公司 ...

[证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn 联系人： [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月22日 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250522 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 ➢ 1.保险板块或已走出下降趋势，上涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析行业板块简评 ➢ 2.邮储银行（601658）：非息收入表现较好，存贷同步降息缓解息差压力——公司简评报 告 ➢ 1.上海市人民政府办公厅印发《上海市提振消费专项行动方案》 ➢ 2.金融监管总局等八部门联合印发《支持小微企业融资的若干措施》 ➢ 3.中国与东盟十国全面完成中国—东盟自贸区3.0版谈判 | 1 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月21日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人： 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250521 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 晨 会 ➢ 1.邮储银行（601658）：非息收入表现较好，存贷同步降息缓解息差压力——公司简评报 告 ➢ 2.保险板块或已走出下降趋势，上涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析行业板块简评 ➢ 3.美出台措施加强半导体出口管制，国产AI芯片2025年国内市占率有望升至40%——电子 行业周报2025/5/12-2025/5/19 ➢ 1.国家发展改革委举行5月份 ...