[Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月10日 杜永宏 S0630522040001 dyh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251210 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.积极政策基调有望延续，内需战略定位进一步提升——2025年12月政治局会议学习 ➢ 2.出口韧性延续——国内观察：2025年11月进出口数据 ➢ 1.国务院总理李强同主要国际经济组织负责人举行"1+10"对话会 ➢ 2.特朗普称将允许英伟达向中国出售H200芯片 | 1. 重点推荐 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. 积极政策基调有望延续，内需战略定位进一步提升——2025 年 月政治局 12 | | | 会议学习 | 3 | | 年 1.2. 出口韧性延续——国内观察：2025 ...

Key Insights - The report emphasizes a continuation of a proactive policy stance, with an increased focus on domestic demand as a strategic priority for the economy in 2026 [5][6][8] - Export resilience is highlighted, with November 2025 showing a year-on-year export growth of 5.9%, reversing a previous decline [12][13] Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on December 8, 2025, reiterated the importance of balancing domestic economic work with international trade challenges, maintaining a focus on economic construction as a core task [5][6] - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to maintain a general deficit ratio around 4%, with broad deficit levels similar to 2025 [7] - Monetary policy is projected to have room for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a potential interest rate reduction of 10-20 basis points [7][8] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Growth - The meeting underscored the need to prioritize domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, indicating a strategic elevation of domestic demand's role in economic growth [8][10] - The focus on consumption is expected to shift towards services, with policies supporting the replacement of old goods to stimulate physical consumption [8][10] Group 3: Export Performance - November 2025 saw exports reach $330.35 billion, marking a historical high for the month, with a significant recovery from previous declines [12][13] - The report notes that while exports to the U.S. have decreased, there has been notable growth in exports to Africa, the EU, and Japan, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [15][16] - Intermediate goods and capital goods exports are expected to remain strong, supported by industrialization in emerging markets and infrastructure needs in regions like Africa [12][16]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月08日 标配 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn 联系人 方逸洋 fyy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.国内晶圆厂产能满载，华为 与阿里新品响应端侧AI趋势— —半导体行业11月份月报 1. 阿里云Q3营收同比增长34%，华 为Mate 80系列与夸克AI眼镜发布 ——电子行业周报（20251124- 20251130） 2. 英伟达Q3业绩与Q4指引超市场 预期，谷歌发布Gemini 3——电子 行业周报（2025/11/17- 2025/11/23） 3. 中芯国际三季度产能利用率与 ASP双增，百度公布昆仑芯五年路 线图——电子行业周报 （2025/11/10-2025/11/16） [Table_NewTitle] 摩尔线程登陆科创板，美光宣布将退出 消费存储业务 业 周 报 ——电子行业周报2025/12/01-2025/12/07 [table_main] 投资 ...

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights the expectation of a dollar interest rate cut and a yen interest rate hike, suggesting a rebalancing of assets in search of certainty [5][7] - It emphasizes the strong performance of the domestic equity market, particularly in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communication, and defense [6][10] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with domestic wafer fabs operating at full capacity and significant growth in AI-related products [10][15] Group 2: Market Overview - Global stock markets mostly rose in the week ending December 5, with A-shares performing relatively well; commodities like copper and crude oil saw price increases, while gold prices fell [5][6] - The report notes that the average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 16,843 billion yuan, with 17 sectors rising and 14 falling [6][23] - The report indicates that the yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds rose to 1.848%, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries increased to 4.14% [5][25] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry showed continued improvement in November, with demand for PCs and smartphones slightly increasing, and rapid growth in TWS headphones and smart home devices [10][12] - The report mentions that the global semiconductor sales in September increased by 25.13% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand [12][13] - Domestic wafer fabs are expected to maintain full capacity, with significant revenue growth reported by major companies like Huahong and SMIC [15][16] Group 4: Economic and Policy Developments - The report discusses the Chinese government's focus on energy conservation and carbon reduction as part of its economic strategy [17] - It highlights a video call between Chinese and U.S. officials aimed at enhancing economic cooperation and addressing mutual concerns [17][18] - The report notes that China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.09% in November, with the central bank continuing to accumulate gold for the 13th consecutive month [19][20]

Group 1: Market Overview and Asset Allocation - Global stock markets mostly rose in the week ending December 5, with A-shares performing relatively well; major commodity futures such as copper, crude oil, and aluminum increased, while gold declined; the US dollar index slightly decreased, and non-US currencies appreciated [2][11] - The report highlights the expectation of US dollar interest rate cuts and Japanese yen interest rate hikes, indicating a rebalancing of assets; the market is expected to seek certainty, with recommendations for sectors such as non-ferrous resources, chip technology, export sectors, and dividend stocks [8][9] Group 2: Domestic Equity Market Review - In the week ending December 5, the domestic equity market showed a preference for cyclical stocks over growth, finance, and consumption, with an average daily trading volume of 1.6843 trillion yuan; 17 out of 31 sectors rose, with non-ferrous metals (+5.35%), communication (+3.69%), and defense industry (+2.82%) leading the gains [19][11] - The report notes that the central bank's bond purchases in November were slightly below market expectations, but regulatory adjustments favoring equity investments are positive for the market [11] Group 3: Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The report indicates a shift towards cautious sentiment in the bond market, with yields generally rising; this is attributed to increased inflation expectations and commodity price rises, alongside banks adjusting their asset portfolios due to regulatory requirements [9][21] - The report also discusses the narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential, positioning the renminbi favorably; the offshore renminbi appreciated slightly against the US dollar, reflecting strong market expectations for the currency [29][12] Group 4: Commodity Tracking - As of December 5, WTI crude oil prices experienced a slight increase to $60.08 per barrel, with US crude oil production rising to 13.815 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 302,000 barrels per day [30][31] - The report notes that geopolitical factors are expected to have a diminishing impact on oil prices in the short term, with Brent crude projected to fluctuate between $50 and $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter [35][36]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月05日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251205 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.看好年末风格切换与"开门红"推进下的板块配置机会——非银金融行业周报 （20251124-20251130） ➢ 2.阿里云Q3营收同比增长34%，华为Mate 80系列与夸克AI眼镜发布——电子行业周报 2025/11/24-2025/11/30 ➢ 1.央行：2025年12月5日开展10000亿元买断式逆回购操作 ➢ 2.潘功胜：要把握好货币政策的力度、时机和节奏，更加注重做好跨周期和逆周期调节 ➢ 3.习近平同法国总统马克龙举行会谈 1.重点推荐 1.1.看好年末风格切换与"开门红"推进 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月04日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251204 重点推荐 财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 晨 会 纪 要 [table_summary] ➢ 1.阿里云Q3营收同比增长34%，华为Mate 80系列与夸克AI眼镜发布——电子行业周报 2025/11/24-2025/11/30 ➢ 2.看好年末风格切换与"开门红"推进下的板块配置机会——非银金融行业周报 （20251124-20251130） ➢ 1.李强主持国务院第十七次专题学习 ➢ 2.国务院原则同意《长三角国土空间规划（2023-2035年）》 ➢ 3.国务院国资委召开中央企业"十五五"规划编制专题座谈会 ➢ 4.美国11月ADP就业人数减3.2万人，低于预期 | 系列与夸克 眼镜 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月03日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251203 [table_summary] 重点推荐 晨 会 纪 要 ➢ 1.阿里云Q3营收同比增长34%，华为Mate 80系列与夸克AI眼镜发布——电子行业周报 2025/11/24-2025/11/30 ➢ 2.看好年末风格切换与"开门红"推进下的板块配置机会——非银金融行业周报 （20251124-20251130） 财经要闻 | 系列与夸克 眼镜发布——电 1.1. 阿里云 Q3 34%，华为 Mate 80 AI | 营收同比增长 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 子行业周报 2025/11/24-2025/11/30 | | 3 | | 1.2. 看好年末风格切换与"开门红"推进下的板块配置机会——非银金融行业周 | | | | 报（20251124 ...

[晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251202 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月02日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 ➢ 1.阿里云Q3营收同比增长34%，华为Mate 80系列与夸克AI眼镜发布——电子行业周报 2025/11/24-2025/11/30 ➢ 2.看好年末风格切换与"开门红"推进下的板块配置机会——非银金融行业周报 （20251124-20251130） ➢ 1.法国总统马克龙将访华 ➢ 2.日本2年期国债收益率升至1%，20年期国债收益率升至2.88% ➢ 3.美国11月ISM制造业PMI为48.2，预期49 | 系列与夸克 眼镜发布——电 1.1. 阿里云 Q3 34%，华为 Mate 80 A ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, particularly in brokerage and insurance, driven by recent regulatory changes and market dynamics [4][8]. - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs is expected to enhance liquidity in the real estate sector and provide new investment channels for retail investors [4]. - The insurance sector is facing increased claims pressure but is anticipated to improve risk management capabilities, particularly in light of recent incidents [4]. Market Overview - The non-bank financial index rose by 0.7% last week, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.9 percentage points, indicating a relative outperformance of the non-bank financial sector [4][8]. - Average daily trading volume in the stock market was 21,586 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.4% from the previous week [16]. Brokerage Sector - The launch of commercial real estate REITs marks a significant expansion of the REITs market in China, with 77 REITs listed and a total financing amount of 207 billion yuan [4]. - Recent adjustments in index components have recognized the leading brokerages based on their scale and trading activity, which is expected to attract passive investment flows [4]. Insurance Sector - The insurance industry is experiencing increased claims pressure, particularly from recent disasters, but the overall cost pressure is expected to be manageable due to risk-sharing mechanisms [4]. - The upcoming "opening red" business cycle in 2026 is anticipated to drive demand for new insurance products, particularly those that address long-term inflation and retirement savings [4]. Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, the report suggests focusing on opportunities in mergers and acquisitions, wealth management transformation, and innovative licensing [4]. - In the insurance sector, attention is drawn to large comprehensive insurance companies that possess competitive advantages under the new regulatory framework [4].