Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The winning factor for trading in July may be the profit - taking rhythm [1][3][14] - The bond market performance in the second half of the year is expected to be stronger than that in the first half, and many institutions expect the yield to break through downward in the third quarter. However, "front - running" and "consensus expectations" are the main obstacles to the market, and the main logic for the bond market in the third quarter is the repair of institutional liability costs and income performance, which requires time [3][14] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Liquidity and Short - term Interest Rates - Season - end liquidity remains loose, with a significant "accumulation" effect on the last working day. The cross - season progress this quarter is significantly slow. Although the "accumulation" effect may intensify capital market fluctuations, it is unlikely to change the looser capital market condition at the beginning of July. Short - term coupon - bearing products fluctuate with market sentiment, and the front - running effect of inter - bank certificates of deposit weakened in the last week, with slightly higher interest rates [1][9] - Whether the central bank has restarted Treasury bond purchases in June will be revealed soon. What matters more is whether short - term purchases form an incremental amount. If the 1 - year Treasury bond does not show a rapid downward trend, the emotional stimulus of the central bank's restart of Treasury bond purchases on long - term bonds is limited [2][14] 2. Long - term Interest Rates - Long - term interest rates returned to a "low - volatility" state after front - running. In late June, long - term interest rates lacked the power for a breakthrough decline due to limited trading space, reduced seasonal liquidity factors, and the suppression of the bond market by the stock - bond seesaw effect. The 10 - year minus 1 - year term spread returned to 30BP [2][11] - For long - term interest rates to break through previous lows, it depends on the "steep illusion" of the Treasury yield curve. However, this kind of trading market based on the "steep illusion" has an unstable foundation [13] 3. Trading Time Windows - The first and last weeks of July are two time windows when trading sentiment may be high. If the capital market fluctuations caused by the cross - season "accumulation" on the last day of June are not too severe, the marginal loosening of liquidity in the first week of July will be strengthened. If institutions expect limited incremental policies, they may enter a "front - running" trading state in the week before the Politburo meeting at the end of July. However, external uncertainties and the recovery of risk appetite may cause market fluctuations [3][14]

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-30 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 5094.64 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5094.64 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《铀价有望重启上涨》 - 2025.06.23 有色金属行业报告 （2025.06.23-2025.06.27） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Monetary policy is likely to be in a "waiting period" at the beginning of the third quarter to re - observe the effects of policy implementation. It has returned to a stable and loose stage, and after the "double cuts" in May, it has re - entered the observation and waiting period for policy effect release. - The judgment on the economic situation has not changed much. External uncertainties have increased, while the confidence in domestic economic operations has been boosted. It is still difficult to change the low - level operation of prices. - The pressure on exchange - rate regulation has significantly decreased, while the attitude of maintaining stable interest rates remains unchanged [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monetary Policy Meeting: Re - entering the Waiting Period - **Economic Situation**: Externally, uncertainties have increased. The description of the world economic growth momentum has changed from "not strong" to "weakening", and "more trade barriers" is added. Domestically, the economy shows resilience and an improving trend, with the financial market described as stable and the real - estate market consolidating its "stable situation". The low - level operation of prices is a major challenge, and it is difficult to improve the price situation [8]. - **Monetary Policy Operation**: After the "double cuts" in May, the central bank now focuses on the "continuous release of policy effectiveness", promotes the reduction of institutional liability - side interest rates, and supports financing in areas such as science and technology innovation, consumption, and "two new and two important" fields. It has re - entered the "waiting period" for policy operation, flexibly grasping the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [9]. - **Exchange - rate and Interest - rate Attitudes**: The "three resolutes" in exchange - rate regulation are no longer mentioned, indicating that the pressure on RMB depreciation has significantly eased, and the exchange - rate regulation pressure has decreased. The central bank's attitude towards maintaining stable domestic asset - side yields is clear, and it no longer demands a significant decline in bond and credit interest rates [9]. Comparison between 2025Q2 and 2025Q1 Monetary Policy Meetings - **Economic and Financial Situation**: In Q2, the description of the external environment is more complex and severe, with the addition of "more trade barriers". The judgment on domestic economic operation is more positive, and the description of low - level price operation is added. - **Monetary Policy Measures**: In Q2, "selective reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" are not mentioned, replaced by flexible control of policy intensity and rhythm. The "three resolutes" in exchange - rate regulation are not mentioned, and the description of the real - estate market is more positive. The "platform economy" is not mentioned. - **Monetary Policy Goals**: Q2 emphasizes the domestic large - scale cycle more [14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The current focus in the petrochemical sector is on crude oil prices, which are primarily influenced by geopolitical factors, although there is uncertainty regarding these developments. Additionally, the gradual approach to the consumption peak for refined oil may provide support for oil prices [2] - This week, due to a decline in crude oil prices, the petrochemical index underperformed relative to other sectors, closing at 2202.18 points, down 2.07% from the previous week. In contrast, other petrochemical sectors showed a positive performance with a 1.49% increase [5][2] - Crude oil prices have decreased, with U.S. crude oil inventories declining and refined oil inventories partially decreasing [6][10] - Polyester prices for polyester filament yarn have shown a stable increase, with a narrowing price spread. Inventory days for polyester filament yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have decreased, while the operating rate of weaving machines has declined [12][19] - For olefins, sample prices for polyethylene and polypropylene have slightly increased, while inventories have decreased during the week [21][24] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have decreased, with Brent crude futures and TTF natural gas futures down 11.6% and 18.2% respectively compared to last week [8] - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) totaled 1,230,719 thousand barrels, a decrease of 4,172 thousand barrels from the previous period [10] Polyester - The prices for polyester filament yarn (POY, DTY, FDY) are 7150, 8420, and 7450 yuan/ton respectively, with price spreads decreasing by 267, 197, and 247 yuan/ton compared to last week [14] - Inventory days for polyester filament yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 18.9, 25.3, and 17.2 days for FDY, DTY, and POY respectively, with the operating rate for polyester filament yarn at 90.6% [19] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene and polypropylene have increased by 1.04% and 0.62% respectively, while the total petrochemical inventory stands at 700,000 tons, down 40,000 tons from last week [24]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Maiwei Biotech has achieved two licensing agreements, which will enhance cash flow and may indicate a turning point in its operations [5][14] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has seen a 1.6% increase this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.35 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 sub-industries [7][20] - The report emphasizes the accelerating trend in licensing out Chinese innovative drugs, with the total licensing amount exceeding 51.9 billion USD in 2024, marking a 27.4% year-on-year increase [18][19] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Maiwei Biotech's recent licensing agreements include a 25 million USD upfront payment and potential milestone payments totaling up to 571 million USD with CALICO Life Sciences for IL-11 targeted therapy, and a 3.8 billion CNY upfront payment with Qilu Pharmaceutical for 8MW0511 [5][14][15] - The report notes that the cash flow issues for Maiwei Biotech are expected to be significantly alleviated due to these agreements, with further business development opportunities anticipated [6] Subsector Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector increased by 1.6% this week, with all sub-sectors showing growth. The hospital sector had the highest increase at 3.92% [7][24] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in various subsectors, including innovative drugs, medical devices, and medical consumables, with specific companies recommended for investment [8][28][29][30] Recommended and Benefiting Stocks - Recommended stocks include Innovent Biologics, Hengrui Medicine, and medical device companies such as YK Medical and Mindray Medical [8][31] - Benefiting stocks in the innovative drug sector include companies like Zai Lab, BeiGene, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [8][34][35] Market Trends - The report indicates that the innovative drug sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by strong clinical data and increased business development activities [28] - The medical device sector is projected to benefit from government policies promoting equipment upgrades, with a significant increase in procurement expected in the second quarter of 2025 [29][30]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in the defense and aerospace sector, particularly focusing on the advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) within military applications. The China Aviation Industry Group has initiated a comprehensive AI program to enhance its capabilities in modern warfare [5][6] - The report suggests that the Chinese military AI sector is poised for accelerated growth, drawing parallels to the advancements made by U.S. military tech firms. It emphasizes the importance of embracing AI to transform future combat scenarios [6] - The report recommends monitoring companies involved in military AI, including listed firms like Zhongke Xingtu and Aerospace Hongtu, as well as several unlisted companies [6] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Information - Closing index: 1585.26 - 52-week high: 1712.48 - 52-week low: 1113.62 [1] Recent Events - On June 24, the China Aviation Industry Group held an AI conference in Beijing, marking a significant step towards integrating AI into military operations. The conference aimed to outline a three-year action plan for AI development [5] AI Development in Military - The report notes that the AI sector in military applications is experiencing a pivotal moment, akin to the "Oppenheimer moment" in the U.S., with various Chinese military groups actively pursuing intelligent technology initiatives [6] - The report identifies specific companies to watch in the military AI space, indicating potential investment opportunities [6]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in China's nitrocellulose exports, with a total export value of 327 million yuan from January to May 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 99%. The average price per ton reached 33,700 yuan, up 37% year-on-year [5][6] - The demand for nitrocellulose is driven by ongoing global conflicts, leading to increased military applications and a strategic supply shortage. The total global production capacity of nitrocellulose is projected to decrease from 261,000 tons in 2023 to 198,000 tons in 2024, a reduction of 24% [6][7] - Nitrocellulose is characterized as a non-cyclical chemical product with long-term growth potential, particularly in military applications and environmentally friendly fireworks. The fireworks industry in Liuyang is significant, with a total output value of 50.22 billion yuan in 2024, and nitrocellulose is expected to replace traditional black powder in this market [7][8] - The core player in the nitrocellulose industry is Beihua Co., which maintains a leading position globally, with over 50% market share domestically and around 15% internationally. The company aims to enhance its product structure and profitability in 2025 [8]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The summer box office of 2025 has started steadily, with over 60 films scheduled for release, and the total box office has exceeded 1.7 billion yuan as of June 28, 2025 [5][6] - The low base effect from the previous year is expected to support box office recovery in 2025, with significant growth anticipated as major films are released in July and August [6] - A diverse range of film genres and ample content reserves are in place, with notable films like "Mission: Impossible 8" and "The New Dragon Trainer" leading the box office [7] - Wanda Film's innovative user engagement strategies have successfully increased audience participation and box office performance, indicating a shift in cinema-user connections [8][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 706.9, with a 52-week high of 752.49 and a low of 456.84 [1] Box Office Performance - As of June 28, 2025, the summer box office has surpassed 1.7 billion yuan, showing a slight decline compared to the same period in 2024, but is expected to recover with the release of major films [6] Film Content and Variety - The summer film slate includes a variety of genres, ensuring broad audience appeal, with significant titles already performing well at the box office [7] User Engagement Strategies - Wanda Film's "Super Entertainment Rights Day" initiative has attracted over 40,000 users to theaters, significantly boosting attendance and sales [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading cinema chains such as Wanda Film, Hengdian Film, and Happiness Blue Sea, as well as content companies involved in popular summer films [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The release of Doubao 1.6 series models has significantly enhanced the reasoning capabilities and multi-modal understanding in the global AI landscape, with specialized versions catering to various task complexities [5][6] - Doubao-Seed-1.6 achieved a score of 144 in the national math assessment and 81.5 in the GPQA Diamond evaluation, ranking among the top globally, showcasing superior reasoning abilities compared to competitors [6] - The Doubao video generation model Seedance 1.0 pro ranked first in both text-to-video and image-to-video tasks, surpassing other multi-modal models [6] - The Doubao Seed1.6 model is the first in China to support 256K context, allowing it to handle over 300,000 words, providing an advantage in processing lengthy documents and complex tasks [6] - The innovation in the Doubao 1.6 series is expected to drive the intelligent transformation in sectors such as education, e-commerce, office, and smart hardware [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 706.9, with a 52-week high of 752.49 and a low of 456.84 [2] Performance Analysis - The relative performance of the media industry shows fluctuations, with a notable increase of 9% from June 2024 to June 2025 [4] Investment Highlights - Value-added services are becoming critical in the competition among large model vendors, with companies leveraging their existing business strengths to enhance product competitiveness [7] - For instance, ByteDance attracts users to its models through value-added services like advertising on Douyin, while Tencent and Alibaba utilize their data advantages in social and e-commerce sectors respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the rapidly growing building block character toy market, with a strong focus on IP development and commercialization [4][6] - The company has established a comprehensive ecosystem that enhances efficiency and competitiveness, leveraging a rich IP portfolio and a multi-channel sales strategy [4][6] - Future growth is driven by a "Three All" strategy targeting all demographics, price points, and global markets, with significant revenue growth expected in the coming years [4][6] Company Overview - The company was founded in 2014 and began developing building block toys in 2016, launching its own IP "Transforming Bluko" shortly thereafter. By 2024, the company reported revenues of 2.24 billion yuan and a net profit of 585 million yuan [4][7] - The management team is experienced, with the founder holding a significant share of 54.95% prior to the IPO, indicating a concentrated ownership structure [10][14] Industry Analysis - The global toy market reached 773.1 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 5.1% from 2023 to 2028. The building block character toy segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20.5% during the same period [4][32] - The competitive landscape is dominated by two major players, Bandai and LEGO, which hold market shares of 39.5% and 35.9%, respectively. The company holds the largest market share in China at 30.3% [4][51] Competitive Advantages - The company has a robust ecosystem focused on efficiency, with advantages in design and R&D, multi-channel sales, and a strong fan engagement strategy [4][6] - The company has a significant number of patents and a diverse IP portfolio, including over 50 well-known IPs, which enhances its market position [4][6] Growth Outlook - The company anticipates substantial revenue growth driven by its "Three All" strategy, with projected revenue growth rates of 88.38%, 51.02%, and 32.40% for 2025 to 2027 [4][6] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 1.076 billion yuan, 1.751 billion yuan, and 2.480 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28x, 17x, and 12x [4][6] Financial Analysis - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 89% from 2021 to 2024, with revenues increasing from 330 million yuan in 2021 to 2.24 billion yuan in 2024 [4][15] - The adjusted net profit saw a significant increase of 702.1% in 2024, driven by the popularity of the Ultraman IP and improved operational efficiency [4][17] - The gross margin and net margin improved to 52.6% and 26.1% in 2024, respectively, reflecting the company's focus on high-margin products [4][17]