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华测检测(300012):点评:预告2025Q3归母业绩同比增10%-13%,国际化步伐加速
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-15 06:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a year-on-year increase of 10%-13% in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025, with a projected net profit of 341-350 million yuan, marking the first time in nine quarters that the growth rate exceeds 10% [2][6][7]. - The company is steadily advancing its strategic mergers and acquisitions and international expansion, which are expected to contribute to performance in Q4 [2][6][13]. Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 808-818 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.26%-9.51% [6]. - Revenue from various business segments includes: - Life Sciences Testing: 1.27 billion yuan, up 1.11% - Industrial Testing: 600 million yuan, up 7.47% - Consumer Testing: 520 million yuan, up 13.15% - Trade Assurance Testing: 430 million yuan, up 13.48% - Medical and Pharmaceutical Testing: 140 million yuan, up 1.30% [7][8]. Profitability - The company achieved a net profit margin of 15.7% in the first half of the year, remaining stable year-on-year, with a gross margin of 49.6%, slightly up by 0.07 percentage points [8]. - The company is focusing on lean management and digital transformation to strengthen its core competitive advantages, with expectations for improved profitability in the medical and semiconductor testing segments [8]. International Expansion - The company has made significant strides in international acquisitions, including the full acquisition of ALS Group's branch in Guangzhou and agreements to acquire stakes in companies in Hong Kong, Vietnam, South Africa, and Greece [13]. - The overseas revenue contribution is approximately 7.30%, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.82% [13]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025: 6.521 billion yuan - 2026: 7.191 billion yuan - 2027: 7.921 billion yuan - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - 2025: 1.014 billion yuan - 2026: 1.143 billion yuan - 2027: 1.287 billion yuan - Corresponding PE ratios are projected at 22.7x, 20.2x, and 17.9x respectively [13].
电新行业2025Q3前瞻及策略展望
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-15 06:08
Group 1: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing significant recovery in silicon material prices, while other segments face pressure due to domestic demand decline and inventory adjustments [12][17][33] - Domestic photovoltaic installations decreased in August, with a total of 231GW added from January to August, reflecting a 65% year-on-year increase, but August alone saw a 55% decline [15][17] - The report anticipates a total installation of 270-300GW for the year, driven by seasonal demand in Q4 [17][33] Group 2: Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is witnessing accelerated demand, with significant growth in both domestic and overseas shipments expected in Q3 [38][39] - The report highlights a substantial increase in battery cell shipments, with a year-on-year growth of 146% in Q1 2025 and 88% in Q2 2025 [45][46] - The domestic energy storage market is projected to see a cumulative installation of 29.29GW/73.11GWh from January to August 2025, marking a 54% year-on-year increase [52] Group 3: Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is experiencing rising prices and demand, with production and shipment volumes increasing significantly [70] - The report notes that the global demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 30-40% over the next 3-5 years [67] - The supply chain is tightening, leading to improved profitability across the industry [67] Group 4: Wind Power - The wind power industry is entering a new cycle of growth, with increasing market optimism and demand expected to rise [8] - The report suggests that the wind power sector is poised for a recovery, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [8] Group 5: Power Equipment - The power equipment sector is seeing unexpected growth in overseas markets, while domestic demand is anticipated to rebound [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of international expansion for power equipment manufacturers as a key growth driver [8]
中短期信用更具“安全边际”,长信用机会在酝酿
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-15 02:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current credit bond market is generally stable but lacks a clear direction, in a transitional phase where negative factors are gradually digested and positive factors are not fully priced. Key policy variables such as the reform of fund redemption fees have not been implemented, restricting the improvement of risk appetite. [2][6] - Looking ahead, the market will mainly feature structural opportunities, and it is difficult to see a trending market. Policy variables, such as whether the central bank restarts bond - buying and the timing of the implementation of the new fund regulations, will directly determine the pricing direction. [2][7][8] - It is recommended that investors adopt a prudent allocation strategy, focusing on the coupon income and defensive value of medium - to high - grade medium - and short - term credit bonds, which have a "safety margin." At the same time, they should closely monitor policy progress and risk events such as tariff issues and flexibly adjust positions to prevent fluctuations. Long - term credit can wait for the right - side opportunity after the over - adjustment when uncertainties are cleared. [2][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Bond Market in the Transitional Phase - From October 9th to October 12th, the credit bond market continued the adjustment trend since September. After continuous adjustment, negative factors in the market have been relatively fully priced, and the risk of a further sharp decline is controllable. The market is not short of positive factors, but the signals have not been fully valued and priced. [7] - Recently, the credit bond market has been affected by multiple factors, including the long - term restructuring pressure on the bond outsourcing investment structure caused by the redemption fee regulations draft issued by the CSRC, the strong performance of equity assets diverting bond allocation demand, and the incomplete clearance of potential redemption pressure, especially the local pressure on the liability side of wealth management and funds. [7] - This week, the yield fluctuations of credit bonds intensified. One - year - or less short - duration credit bonds became relatively stable, with faster yield recovery, while the credit spreads of long - duration assets further increased. [7] 3.2 Policy Variables Determine Market Direction - The core contradiction in the bond market in October still focuses on policy variables, including whether the central bank restarts bond - buying and the timing of the implementation of the new fund fee regulations. These factors will directly determine the pricing direction of credit bonds. [7][8] - If the central bank restarts bond - buying, it will release a signal of loose money, which is conducive to boosting the overall sentiment of the bond market, especially supporting interest - rate bonds and driving the narrowing of credit spreads. It is expected that the probability of the central bank restarting bond - buying in October is relatively high. [8] - If the new fund regulations are implemented, they may impact the scale of bond funds. Bonds preferred by funds, such as policy - financial bonds, secondary - tier two bonds, and ultra - long - term credit bonds, may be the first to be affected. Policy uncertainties will magnify the differentiation in terms and ratings. Medium - and short - term high - grade bonds are relatively resistant to decline and have a "safety margin," while long - duration weak - quality bonds may face greater fluctuations. [8] 3.3 Yield and Spread Overview - **Each term's yield and its change**: The yields of various bonds such as treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds showed different degrees of changes compared to last week, with different historical quantiles. For example, the 0.5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.39%, down 1.2bp from last week, and its historical quantile was 10.7%. [15] - **Each term's spread and its change**: The credit spreads of various bonds also changed, and the historical quantiles varied. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds was 17bp, down 3.9bp from last week, and its historical quantile was 4.0%. [17] 3.4 Credit Bond Yield and Spread by Category (Hermite Algorithm) - **Urban investment bonds by region**: The yields and spreads of urban investment bonds in different regions showed different trends. For example, in Anhui, the 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds was 1.82%, down 5.19bp from last week, and the 0.5 - year credit spread was 29.30bp, down 4.8bp from last week. [21][24] - **Yield and spread by implicit rating**: The yields and spreads of urban investment bonds with different implicit ratings also had distinct changes. For example, in Anhui, the yield of AAA - rated public non - perpetual urban investment bonds was 1.82%, down 0.9bp from last week, and the credit spread was 19.74bp, down 0.58bp from last week. [28][33] - **Yield and spread by administrative level**: The yields and spreads of urban investment bonds at different administrative levels showed different characteristics. For example, in Anhui, the yield of provincial - level public non - perpetual urban investment bonds was 1.81%, down 3.16bp from last week. [38]
望远镜系列22之NikeFY2026Q1:收入表现超预期,库存清理稳步推进
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-15 02:35
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - In FY2026Q1 (June 1, 2025 - August 31, 2025), the company achieved revenue of $11.72 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $11.02 billion, with a year-over-year decline of 1% at constant exchange rates [2][5] - Gross margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 42.2%, primarily due to increased product costs from higher wholesale and factory store discounts, tariffs, and a decline in direct sales channels [2][5] - Marketing expenses reduction led to a 0.6 percentage point decline in SG&A expense ratio, but a 1.5 percentage point increase in the tax rate negatively impacted net margin, which fell by 2.9 percentage points to 6.2% [2][5] Revenue Breakdown - By region, revenue for Nike brand was as follows: North America +4%, EMEA +1%, APLA +1%, Greater China -10%, totaling $5.02 billion, $3.33 billion, $1.49 billion, and $1.51 billion respectively [6] - By channel, DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) revenue decreased by 5% to $4.5 billion, while wholesale revenue increased by 5% to $6.8 billion [6] - By product category, revenue for footwear decreased by 2% to $7.41 billion, apparel increased by 7% to $3.31 billion, and equipment increased by 3% to $630 million [7] Inventory and Cost Impact - As of FY2026Q1, the company's inventory stood at $8.11 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 2%, with a healthy inventory recovery plan in progress [11] - Tariffs are expected to add approximately $1.5 billion in costs, with an adverse impact on FY2026 gross margin estimated at 1.2 percentage points [11]
盈利预期视角下,哪些行业三季报确定性更高?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-14 23:30
Core Insights - The report highlights that amidst escalating external uncertainties due to ongoing US-China trade tensions, industries with significantly improved profit expectations for Q3 are seen as higher certainty investment directions in the A-share market [1][5][14] - Key industries with notable upward adjustments in profit expectations include non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, comprehensive sectors, pharmaceutical biology, public utilities, and banking [5][15] - The report indicates that from September 1, 2025, to October 12, 2025, the profit expectation adjustment ratios for banking, comprehensive sectors, non-bank financials, and retail trade are 52.8%, 50.0%, 46.0%, and 42.1% respectively [5][15] Industry Summaries - **Primary Industry Adjustments**: The report notes that the overall profit expectation adjustments for the first-level industries are as follows: non-ferrous metals (1.5%), non-bank financials (1.4%), comprehensive sectors (0.5%), pharmaceutical biology (0.2%), public utilities (0.2%), and banking (0.1%) [5][15] - **Secondary Industry Highlights**: Within the second-level industries, significant upward adjustments in profit expectations are observed in marine equipment II (4.7%), biological products (3.5%), agricultural product processing (2.7%), securities II (2.5%), industrial metals (2.2%), and precious metals (2.1%) [6][21] - **Recent Performance Trends**: The report identifies that in the past two quarters, revenue and gross margins have consistently improved in industries such as rare earth magnetic materials, fiberglass and products II, cement and concrete, fine chemicals and new materials, and other metals and materials II [6][25] - **TMT Sector Growth**: The TMT sector shows significant profit growth, with quarterly profit growth rates for computing, telecommunications, and electronics in Q2 2025 at 685.5%, 64.5%, and 49.3% respectively [6][28] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a revaluation trend for Chinese assets, suggesting that even if there are short-term fluctuations due to rapid market increases, the long-term positive trend remains intact, with expectations of a "slow bull" market [7][29] - Investment directions include a focus on technology growth areas such as AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, and military industries, while also paying attention to sectors benefiting from supply-demand improvements like metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming [7][29][30] - The report emphasizes that the fundamental factors will ultimately determine market trends, with expectations for the real estate market to stabilize and the effects of "anti-involution" policies to become evident, supporting a sustained upward trajectory for the A-share market [31]
零碳新纪元系列研究一:扩量提质,破局新生
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-14 15:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electrical equipment industry [12] Core Viewpoints - Renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, is central to China's dual carbon goals, but the industry faces challenges with rapid growth in generation capacity and increasing consumption pressure [4][7] - The report emphasizes the need for high-quality development in the renewable energy sector, focusing on enhancing supply and expanding utilization pathways [4][7] - The transition to a unified electricity market and the promotion of energy storage, ultra-high voltage transmission, and new business models are seen as critical for improving renewable energy consumption [8][22] Summary by Sections Power Utilization: Core Role of Storage, New Business Models, and Ultra-High Voltage - The contradiction of increased installed capacity and reduced utilization rates is expected to emerge by 2025, necessitating reforms in the electricity system to support renewable energy consumption [8][22] - Energy storage is anticipated to play a crucial role, with a three-part value system involving spot markets, ancillary services, and capacity pricing being established [9][22] - New business models supported by government policies are expected to facilitate local consumption of renewable energy [9][22] Non-Electric Utilization: Decreasing Costs of Green Electricity and Potential Growth of Green Hydrogen and Methanol - The report highlights the low current share of non-electric renewable energy utilization, which is less than 1% of total energy consumption, but anticipates significant growth in green hydrogen and methanol as costs decrease [10][22] - Green hydrogen is identified as a key intermediate process for deep decarbonization, with applications in agriculture and as a zero-carbon energy source [10][22] - The demand for green ammonia and methanol is expected to expand rapidly due to the establishment of environmental value systems domestically and internationally [10][22] Future Outlook: Comprehensive Market Entry and Maturity of the Unified Electricity Market - The next five years are critical for transitioning from scale development to high-quality development in the renewable energy sector, with a focus on enhancing consumption capacity [49][50] - The report outlines the importance of market-driven resource allocation and the establishment of a sustainable pricing mechanism for renewable energy [49][50] - The construction of a unified electricity market is expected to facilitate better resource allocation and promote renewable energy consumption [53][55]
斯菱股份(301550):深耕汽车轴承,拓展机器人新业务
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-14 15:02
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its initial coverage [10]. Core Insights - The company specializes in manufacturing automotive bearings, focusing on the aftermarket, which is expected to benefit from the increasing age and ownership of vehicles. Additionally, the company is actively entering the robotics sector, particularly in harmonic reducers and rotary actuators, which may open a second growth curve [3][10]. Summary by Sections Bearings: Focus on Automotive Aftermarket - The company is a professional manufacturer of automotive bearings, primarily targeting the aftermarket with a stable development outlook. The growth in vehicle age and ownership is expected to expand the automotive aftermarket [6][39]. Product: Comprehensive Layout in Automotive Bearings - The product range includes various automotive bearings such as wheel hub bearings, cone bearings, clutch bearings, and more. The company has a well-rounded product matrix aimed at the aftermarket [6][40]. End Market: Increasing Vehicle Age and Ownership - The increasing vehicle age is expected to drive the expansion of the automotive aftermarket. The average maintenance costs rise significantly with vehicle age, indicating a growing market opportunity [44][46]. Robotics: Layout of Harmonic Reducers and Joint Modules - The company has established a robotics components division, focusing on harmonic reducers and rotary joint modules, with plans for significant investment in smart technology upgrades for production [9][57]. Harmonic Reducers: Significant Domestic Replacement Potential - Harmonic reducers are crucial components for humanoid robots, with a large domestic replacement potential as the market is currently dominated by foreign companies [7][58]. Manufacturing Challenges: Core Barriers in Harmonic Reducer Production - The production of harmonic reducers involves complex material selection, design, and processing techniques, which present significant manufacturing challenges [8][66]. Financial Projections: Expected Profit Growth - The company anticipates achieving net profits of 210 million, 250 million, and 350 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10].
流动性和机构行为周度观察:10月资金面预计整体宽松-20251014
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-14 12:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - From October 9 - 11, 2025, the central bank significantly net - withdrew funds through short - term reverse repurchases, and the money market generally loosened. The net payment scale of government bonds decreased, most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market slightly increased. - Looking ahead to the money market trend in October, it is expected to be seasonally loose at the beginning of the quarter. Although it is expected to be generally loose overall, there will be certain volatility pressure at the end of the month due to the overlap of tax payment and cross - month effects [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - **Reverse Repurchase Operations**: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 15263 billion yuan. To cope with the pressure of concentrated maturity of funds, the central bank carried out a 3 - month (3M) outright reverse repurchase operation of 11000 billion yuan on October 9, with a net investment of 3000 billion yuan this month. From October 13 - 17, 7 - day reverse repurchases worth 10210 billion yuan and treasury cash deposits worth 1500 billion yuan will mature [7]. - **Money Market Conditions**: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 3.0 and 10.5 basis points respectively compared with September 29 - 30; the average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 7.1 and 26.3 basis points respectively. The money market generally loosened. It is expected to be generally loose in October, but with certain volatility pressure at the end of the month [8]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 7 billion yuan, about 2114 billion yuan less than that from September 29 - 30. From October 13 - 19, the net payment scale of government bonds is expected to be 852 billion yuan [9]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of October 11, 2025, the 1 - month (1M) and 1 - year (1Y) inter - bank certificate of deposit maturity yields decreased by 0.3 and 1.5 basis points respectively compared with September 30, while the 3 - month (3M) yield increased by 4.1 basis points [10]. - **Net Financing Amount**: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the net financing amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about 823 billion yuan, turning positive from - 1316 billion yuan from September 29 - 30. The maturity repayment amount from October 13 - 19 is expected to be 5049 billion yuan, and the maturity amount in October is expected to be 1.84 trillion yuan, significantly lower than that in September [10]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.61%, slightly higher than the average of 107.57% from September 29 - 30 [11]. - **Duration of Pure Bond Funds**: On October 10, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - and long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds increased by 0.67 years week - on - week, reaching the 76.8% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds increased by 0.18 years week - on - week, reaching the 28.1% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [11].
债市“收官战”,预计Q4债市表现优于Q3
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-14 12:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the bond market in Q4 2025 is expected to be better than that in Q3. It is recommended to actively allocate when the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond is above 1.75%, and the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond in Q4 is expected to decline to around 1.7% [10][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Can the fundamentals price the bond market? - The bond market is sensitive to fundamentals. The decline in bond yields is a marginal change that requires continuous marginal weakening of fundamentals. Although the current economic growth rate is still at a relatively low level, there was no obvious weakening in the first three quarters of 2025, making it difficult to bring marginal long - buying power to the bond market [10][16]. - The bond yield decline space was significantly overdrawn in Q4 2024. From 2018 - 2023, the average annual decline of the 10 - year treasury bond yield was only about 20bps, while in 2024, it declined by 88bps, the highest since 2015. Especially after the monetary policy proposed "moderate easing" on December 9, 2024, the bond yield declined significantly, overdrawn the bond market space in 2025 [10][16]. - The pricing influence of fundamentals on the bond market is expected to gradually increase in Q4. Due to the base effect, the year - on - year GDP growth rate in Q4 is expected to slow down to around 4.5% from about 5% in Q3, and the adjustment of the bond market in Q3 has basically repaired the previous overdrawn phenomenon [19]. 3.2 How does the bond market react to repeated trade frictions? - Before the end of October, trade frictions will suppress market risk sentiment and increase the valuation of safe - haven assets, providing a favorable environment for the bond market. It will take until the end of October to early November to prove whether it is a "TACO transaction" [10][24]. - Sino - US trade frictions benefit the bond market through the equity market and the expectation of monetary easing. The equity market is a high - odds variable for the bond market. If the equity market adjusts, it will benefit the bond market. External shocks to the capital market increase the probability of further monetary easing, as shown by the "double - cut" in May after the trade friction in April this year [10][25]. 3.3 What if the Q4 fund sales fee rate new regulations are implemented? - The redemption disturbance caused by the sales fee rate is different from traditional disturbances. The full inclusion of the fund redemption fee in the fund property will not lead to the overall loss of investors, so it will not cause a systematic upward shift in the bond market curve [10][32]. - The redemption feedback caused by the change in the fund sales fee rate does not involve the re - pricing of stocks and bonds. After banks redeem short - term bond funds, funds can flow back to the bond market through money market funds and bond ETFs in a short time. Therefore, the adjustment range and time of the bond market caused by the redemption feedback are expected to be less than before [10][35].
上汽集团(600104):2025年9月销量点评:合资、自主、新能源、海外延续多板块向好
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-14 10:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - In September 2025, the company achieved a total sales volume of 440,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.4% and a month-on-month increase of 21.0%. Cumulatively, from January to September, total sales reached 3.193 million vehicles, up 20.5% year-on-year. The sales growth rate has been on an upward trend since March, indicating the effectiveness of ongoing reforms [2][12] - The report highlights that the sales performance across various segments, including joint ventures, independent brands, new energy vehicles, and overseas markets, continues to show positive momentum [12] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The company reported a total sales volume of 440,000 vehicles in September 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 40.4% and a month-on-month increase of 21.0%. For the first nine months of 2025, total sales reached 3.193 million vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.5%. The sales growth has been consistently improving since March, showcasing the positive impact of reforms [12] Joint Ventures - Sales from joint venture brands have shown continuous improvement, with September sales for SAIC Volkswagen at 94,000 vehicles (up 0.1% year-on-year, up 8.7% month-on-month) and for SAIC General at 49,000 vehicles (up 124.4% year-on-year, up 12.7% month-on-month). Cumulatively, from January to September, SAIC Volkswagen sold 752,000 vehicles (down 2.5% year-on-year), while SAIC General sold 381,000 vehicles (up 36.7% year-on-year) [12] Independent Brands - The independent brand segment saw significant growth, with SAIC Passenger Cars selling 94,000 vehicles in September (up 72.4% year-on-year, up 25.5% month-on-month) and a total of 596,000 vehicles sold from January to September (up 23.8% year-on-year). The new model, IM LS6, launched on September 10, is expected to further boost sales [12] New Energy and Overseas Markets - New energy vehicle sales reached 189,000 units in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.5% and a month-on-month increase of 46.0%. For the first nine months, new energy vehicle sales totaled 1.083 million units, up 44.8% year-on-year. Exports and overseas sales amounted to 101,000 vehicles in September (up 12.2% year-on-year, up 14.0% month-on-month) and 765,000 vehicles from January to September (up 3.5% year-on-year) [12] Future Outlook - The company is undergoing internal reforms and enhancing collaboration with Huawei to accelerate its smart transformation. The ongoing reforms are expected to improve operational efficiency and drive sales growth for independent brands. The projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is estimated at 13.02 billion and 14.98 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.8X and 12.9X [12]