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齐心集团(002301):2024A、2025Q1点评:B2B企稳回升,好视通轻装上阵,品牌新文具稳步推进
长江证券· 2025-04-29 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and maintained [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 11.397 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline by 18% to 63 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to decrease by 21% to 59 million yuan [2][4] - In Q4 2024, the company anticipates total revenue of 3.001 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 10%. The net profit is expected to be a loss of 96 million yuan [2][4] - For Q1 2025, total revenue is projected to be 2.212 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 49 million yuan, showing a decrease of 1% [2][4] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The B2B business is estimated to achieve stable growth in 2024, contributing to a total revenue increase of 3%. The revenue from the B2B segment is expected to be 11.352 billion yuan, driven by digital transformation and the use of AI tools to optimize business processes [11] - The SAAS business is projected to generate 4.5 million yuan in revenue, a decrease of 42%, as the company focuses on the smart education sector [11] Profitability - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to be 63 million yuan, with a net profit of 110 million yuan after excluding goodwill impairment [11] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 8.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The gross margins for B2B and SAAS businesses are expected to be 8.58% and 10.40%, respectively [11] Future Outlook - In Q4 2024, the company anticipates revenue pressure across all business segments, leading to losses. The B2B revenue is expected to decline by 10%, while SAAS revenue is projected to drop by 52% [11] - For Q1 2025, the company expects a recovery in B2B revenue and positive profitability from the good vision business adjustments [11] - The company aims to optimize its B2B customer structure and enhance its MRO share, leveraging AI for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [11]
东鹏控股(003012):价格战延续中,等待行业企稳
长江证券· 2025-04-29 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company achieved an annual revenue of 6.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 330 million yuan, down 54% year-on-year [2][4]. - In the first quarter, the company reported a revenue of 1 billion yuan, a decline of 2% year-on-year, with a net profit of -30 million yuan, a decrease of 164% year-on-year [2][4]. - The ongoing price war in the industry is expected to continue, with a significant impact on profitability and revenue [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 17%, with tile revenue down 18% due to weak terminal demand and a 9% decrease in tile sales volume [11]. - The average price of tiles fell by approximately 10%, while production costs decreased by 7%, leading to a decline in gross margin from 33.5% in 2023 to 31.0% in 2024 [11]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is estimated to be around 5.1%, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Market Conditions - The first quarter showed a slight recovery in revenue decline, but profitability remains under pressure due to the ongoing price war [11]. - The construction area is expected to decline by about 28% in 2024, impacting overall demand in the industry [11]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of approximately 340 million yuan and 480 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to valuation multiples of 21 and 15 times [6]. - The cash flow performance is strong, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 860 million yuan in 2024 [11]. Industry Dynamics - The supply side of the tile industry is experiencing significant exits, with production expected to decrease by 12% in 2024 compared to previous years [11]. - Environmental policies are pushing the industry towards green production and smart manufacturing, which may further influence supply dynamics [11].
赛特新材(688398):期待2025年新业务提供增量
长江证券· 2025-04-29 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 934 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.16%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 77.16 million yuan, a decline of 27.27% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 246 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10%, but the net profit decreased by 65.96% to 9.758 million yuan [2][4]. - The revenue performance is relatively stable, but profit performance is poor, mainly due to losses from certain subsidiaries. The company's VIP revenue for the year is expected to be 920 million yuan, with a 13% increase in sales volume [4][11]. - The company anticipates that new business segments will provide incremental growth by 2025, particularly in the ultra-thin VIP market for battery insulation in electric vehicles [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects total revenue of 934 million yuan for 2024, with a gross profit margin of approximately 29% [4][15]. - The projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is 132 million yuan and 173 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 18 and 14 [5][15]. Market Dynamics - Domestic sales are expected to reach 530 million yuan in 2024, a 41% increase, while international sales are projected to decline by 13% to 400 million yuan due to geopolitical tensions affecting logistics and shipping costs [4][11]. - The company is seeing improved order signals driven by the "old-for-new" policy in China, particularly in the refrigerator segment [11]. Product Development - The company has successfully applied its VIP boards in the battery insulation sector for electric vehicles, with recognition from major automotive and battery manufacturers [11].
三棵树(603737):经营拐点愈加明确
长江证券· 2025-04-29 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company achieved an annual revenue of 12.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 330 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 91%. The non-recurring net profit was approximately 150 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 234% [3][4]. - In the first quarter, the company reported a revenue of 2.1 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 110 million yuan, up 123% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was approximately -10 million yuan, indicating a substantial improvement [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 12.1 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year. The core business of wall coatings saw a 4% decline, accounting for 58% of total revenue. However, the revenue from home decoration wall paint grew by 13% [8]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue growth of 3%, with wall coatings generating 1.25 billion yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year. The engineering wall coatings also saw a 9% increase in revenue [8]. Market Performance - The company’s retail revenue continued to grow positively, while the engineering business faced challenges due to price wars. The retail revenue showed double-digit growth, contrasting with a 13% decline in engineering wall coatings revenue [8]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was approximately 29.6%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, but showed a quarterly improvement to 31.0% in Q1 2025, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year. The operating expense ratio also improved, with a decrease in the period expense ratio to 25.7% for 2024 [8]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company maintained a strong operating cash flow, with a cash collection ratio of 1.11, 1.18, and 1.15 over the past three years. The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was approximately 1 billion yuan, with Q1 2025 achieving a positive cash flow of 110 million yuan, marking the first positive cash flow in Q1 in history [8]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a core player in the stock market, adapting to the new era of renovation. The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are approximately 1 billion yuan and 1.31 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 26 and 20 times [8].
卓然股份(688121):未来在手订单有望逐步确认
长江证券· 2025-04-29 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 168 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 227.91% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 81.52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -8 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses [5][11] - The company has a total of 5.868 billion yuan in orders on hand, with significant contributions expected from engineering general contracting services in 2025-2026 [11] - The company is focusing on high-end, green, and intelligent development in response to national policies aimed at promoting the chemical industry [11] - The petrochemical equipment market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.2% from 2024 to 2027, reaching a market size of 951.4 billion yuan by 2027 [11] - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 130 million yuan, 150 million yuan, and 200 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19.3X, 16.9X, and 12.3X [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 168 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 227.91% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 81.52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -8 million yuan, showing a reduction in losses [5][11] Order Book and Revenue Recognition - The company has 5.868 billion yuan in orders on hand, with engineering general contracting services expected to contribute significantly to revenue recognition in 2025-2026 [11] Industry Outlook - The petrochemical equipment market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.2% from 2024 to 2027, reaching a market size of 951.4 billion yuan by 2027 [11] Strategic Focus - The company is actively pursuing high-end, green, and intelligent development in alignment with national policies aimed at enhancing the chemical industry [11] Profit Forecast - Projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 130 million yuan, 150 million yuan, and 200 million yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19.3X, 16.9X, and 12.3X [11]
政府债周报:新增专项债发行进度25.27%-20250429
长江证券· 2025-04-29 15:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly focuses on the issuance progress and details of local government bonds, including new - issued bonds, refinancing bonds, and special bonds. It provides data on actual and forecasted bond issuances, net supply, and investment - related spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecasted Issuance - 4/21 - 4/27 local bond net supply was 1625 billion yuan; 4/28 - 5/4 local bond forecasted net supply is 927 billion yuan [13][17] - In March, there were differences between the planned and actual issuance of local bonds; in April, there were also differences between the disclosed plan and actual issuance [15][21] 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - As of April 25, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 36.95%, and that of new special bonds was 25.27% [27] - As of April 25, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities for the year is presented in the report [27] 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - As of April 25, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 39874.69 billion yuan, with 15989.44 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and 56.30 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale were Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Hunan [7] - As of April 25, the special new special bonds in 2025 totaled 1432.58 billion yuan, and 13337.71 billion yuan since 2023. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale were Jiangsu, Hubei, and Xinjiang [7] 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - The report shows the first - and second - level spreads of local bonds and the second - level spreads by region [37][40] 3.5 New Special Bond Investment Directions The report provides a monthly statistics of project investment directions for new special bonds, with the latest month only considering issued new bonds [42]
价值策略周报:分红率普涨,寻觅“新红马”-20250429
长江证券· 2025-04-29 15:13
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 截至 2025 年 4 月 23 日,发布 2024 年分红预案的公司数量超过三分之一,统计数据发现,半 数以上的行业分红率实现提升,红利策略继续挖掘"新红马"。从一级行业看,截至 2025 年 4 月 23 日,我们自下而上统计得到的行业 2024 年与 2023 年分红率差值,结果发现半数以上行 业分红率实现提升,其中预期股息率超过 3.5%的行业中,家电制造、交通运输等行业 2024 年 分红率提升较多;细分行业看,小家电、快递、楼宇设备等行业分红率提升靠前。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490524010002 SFC:BTR264 戴清 胡飞 投资策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 价值策略周报:分红率普涨,寻觅"新红马" 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 价值策略周报:分红率普涨,寻觅"新红马" [Table_Summary2] 上市公司分红预案跟踪:行业分红率普遍提升,继续挖掘"新红马" 2024 年上市公司 ...
长江大消费行业2025年5月金股推荐
长江证券· 2025-04-29 14:31
联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 大消费行业 2025 年 5 月金股推荐 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江大消费九大优势行业(农业、零售、社服、汽车、纺服、轻工、食品、家电、医药)2025 年 5 月重点推荐金股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈佳 李锦 赵刚 SAC:S0490513080003 SAC:S0490514080004 SAC:S0490517020001 SFC:BQT624 SFC:BUV258 SFC:BUX176 高伊楠 于旭辉 蔡方羿 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490518020002 SAC:S0490516060001 SFC:BUW101 SFC:BUU942 SFC:BUV463 董思远 陈亮 彭英骐 SAC:S0490517070016 SAC:S0490517070017 SAC:S0490524030005 SFC:BQK487 SFC:BUW408 SFC:BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 11 ...
锐明技术(002970):海外需求旺盛,Q1增长明显
长江证券· 2025-04-29 14:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company has significant growth potential in the commercial vehicle information technology sector, with a notable increase in product value due to continuous technological iterations. Compared to its US counterpart, Samsara, the company's valuation is significantly lower, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments in the future [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 290 million yuan, up 184.50%. In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 515 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.53%, and a net profit of 101 million yuan, up 89.60% [3][8]. - The company's domestic revenue in 2024 was 693 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.80%, while overseas revenue reached 1.281 billion yuan, up 44.99%. Revenue from commercial vehicle information technology products was 1.671 billion yuan, an increase of 25.99% [8]. Market Expansion and Strategy - The company has established a localized marketing network and a dual-brand strategy, particularly making strides in the European commercial vehicle market, which has enhanced its competitiveness in international markets. Plans are in place to establish subsidiaries in more countries and regions to deepen its global business network [8]. - The company is committed to a global strategy, with significant improvements in production efficiency and quality control at its smart factory in Vietnam, which has gained recognition from clients in various regions [8]. Research and Development - The company continues to invest in R&D, with R&D expenses amounting to 284 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.14%. The R&D expense ratio decreased from 16.57% in 2023 to 14.37% in 2024, indicating improved efficiency [8]. - The company has integrated AI algorithms with 5G and vehicle networking technologies, transitioning its products from "passive monitoring" to "active warning" and "active intervention," aligning better with industry demands for safety and efficiency [8]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 406 million yuan, 526 million yuan, and 717 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 40%, 30%, and 36%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 21, 17, and 12 times [8].
信用利差周报:信用表现偏弱-20250429
长江证券· 2025-04-29 13:12
丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title] 信用表现偏弱 ——信用利差周报(4/27) 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 4 月 21 日-4 月 25 日债券收益率多数上行,信用利差多数跟随走阔。收益率方面,0.5-1Y 证券 公司次级债上行幅度超 3bp,1Y 产业债上行幅度超 1bp。2-3Y 城投债、产业债、商业银行二 级资本债、证券公司普通债多数上行幅度超 3bp,2-3Y 商业银行永续债上行幅度超 1bp。5Y 产 业债、商业银行二级资本债、证券公司次级债、证券公司永续债上行幅度超 3bp,2-5Y 城投债 多数上行幅度超 4bp。信用利差方面,1-2Y 城投债、产业债信用利差多数走阔超 1bp。3Y 城 投债、产业债、商业银行二级资本债信用利差多数走阔超 2bp。5Y 商金债信用利差收窄超 2bp。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC:S0490524080003 SAC:S0490524120005 SFC:BVN394 SFC:BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% ...