丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨建材 [Table_Title] 财政支出力度提升，重视一季度景气品类 ——建材周专题 2025W10 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 财政支出力度提升，重视一季度景气品类 基本面：水泥价格由降转升，玻璃库存延续累积 板块再回相对低位，配置景气度 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490516040002 SAC：S0490520080026 SAC：S0490523030002 SFC：BQK473 范超 张佩 李金宝 李浩 董超 [Table_Title 财政支出力度提升，重视一季度景气品类 2] ——建材周专题 2025W10 [Table_Summary2] 财政支出力度提升，重视一季度高景气品类 2025 年财政支出力度提升。政府工作报告提出，实施更加积极的财政政策。今年赤字率拟按 4%左右安排、比上年提高 1 个百分点，赤字规模 5.66 万亿元、比上年增加 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company's revenue is projected to reach $10.26 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.9%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be $110 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of $1.16 billion in the previous year, marking the first time the company has achieved profitability [2][8]. - The company's market share in Southeast Asia is rapidly increasing, with a 40.8% year-on-year growth in business volume, reaching 4.56 billion parcels. The market share has improved by 3.2 percentage points to 28.6%, solidifying its leading position [10]. - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategies in new markets, leading to a significant increase in per-parcel profit margins [10]. Summary by Sections Southeast Asia Market - Business volume in Southeast Asia is expected to grow by 40.8% to 4.56 billion parcels in 2024, with market share increasing to 28.6%. The per-parcel gross profit remains stable at $0.14, with total gross profit rising by 34.6% to $630 million due to cost reductions in sorting and transportation [10]. China Market - In China, business volume is projected to grow by 29.1% to 19.8 billion parcels in 2024, benefiting from a faster growth rate than the industry average. The per-parcel gross profit is expected to increase by $0.02, resulting in a total gross profit of $420 million [10]. New Markets - Business volume in new markets is anticipated to grow by 22.1% to 28 million parcels, with market share slightly increasing to 6.1%. The per-parcel gross profit is expected to rise by $0.10 to $0.11, driven by a shift towards local non-e-commerce parcels [10]. Profitability and Future Outlook - The company is expected to leverage its unique agency model to capitalize on the global e-commerce trend, enhancing market share and profitability. Projections for net profit are $380 million, $616 million, and $859 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.7, 11.0, and 7.9 [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The policy goal of stabilizing the real estate market is significantly more proactive, with market expectations improving. The volume and price pulse maintain a certain level of activity, indicating a good start to the "small spring" [3] - A trend reversal will require time, but the sharp decline in volume appears to have ended, bringing prices closer to equilibrium. The most challenging period for the industry may be passing, with opportunities for trading in quality real estate stocks [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures and market conditions for a sustainable recovery in the real estate sector, particularly in lower-tier cities where price adjustments are nearing physical reset costs [7] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 0.33% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.72%, ranking 30 out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 0.56%, also underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.79%, ranking 21 out of 32 [4][12] - Rental and property management sectors showed gains, while development sectors experienced mixed results, leading to overall poor relative performance [4] Policy Updates - The government work report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, with measures to reduce restrictive policies and promote housing demand. Local governments are also taking steps to implement affordable housing projects [5][14] - Specific policies include the introduction of a compensation scheme for urban village redevelopment in Guangzhou, with monetary compensation rates set at 22,500 yuan per square meter, potentially reaching up to 38,550 yuan per square meter with additional rewards [5][14] Sales Data - In the sample cities, the year-on-year registration volume for second-hand homes remains high, while new home registrations show a marginal decline. For the period after the Lunar New Year, new home registrations in 37 cities increased by 5% year-on-year, while second-hand homes in 19 cities rose by 40% [6][15] - As of March 7, new home transaction area in March for 37 cities increased by 9% year-on-year, while second-hand homes saw a 53.8% increase [6][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hainan Huatie is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company has signed a "Computing Power Service Agreement" with Hangzhou X Company, with a total contract value of 3.69 billion yuan over a service period of 5 years [2][6] - The company has established a Digital Intelligence Technology Division to enhance its AI capabilities, led by a former Huawei expert [12] - The company's credit rating has improved to AA+ following the entry of Hainan state-owned assets, which has also led to reduced financing costs [12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hainan Huatie has made significant progress in its computing power business, with a total signed computing power service amount reaching 2.475 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [12] - The company plans to invest over 2 billion yuan in capital expenditures related to the new computing power contracts [12] Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenues of 7.0 billion, 8.9 billion, and 10.9 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 27.2, 21.3, and 17.4 times [12] - The projected net profits for the same period are 840 million, 747 million, 952 million, and 1.164 billion yuan [15] Market Position - The company is strategically positioned to leverage the growing AI industry and has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Hainan Provincial Computing Power Technology Co., Ltd. to further its computing power business [12] - The company’s management team has shown confidence in its future by increasing their shareholdings [12]

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 如何看待煤价和板块反弹持续性？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 如何看待煤价和板块反弹的持续性？我们认为，坑口市场煤价短期跌至长协价附近&电厂库存 回落明显&供给收缩预期增强均使得港口煤价出现反弹，但当前港口库存仍高，港口煤价下行 压力并未完全消除；后续仍需期待更多需求侧积极因素。不过，虽然当前价格并未见底，但权 益端龙头性价比突出，随着股权登记日的逐渐临近，后续有望迎来一波红利配置行情。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 如何看待煤价和板块反弹持续性？ [Table_Summ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and mining industry [9]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the weakening of the US dollar and marginal improvements in domestic and international economic expectations have boosted industrial metal commodities. This week, industrial metals have shown upward trends, with LME copper rising by 2.57% and aluminum by 3.26% [2][6]. - Economic and financial resonance is emphasized, with continued recommendations for copper and aluminum due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and potential for quarterly rebounds in these commodities [6]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the weakening dollar and improved economic expectations have led to an increase in industrial metal prices. Specifically, LME copper and aluminum prices have risen significantly, with copper up 2.57% and aluminum up 3.26% [6]. - The report indicates that both domestic and international economic indicators, such as the US manufacturing PMI and China's Caixin manufacturing PMI, are in expansion territory, contributing to positive market sentiment [6]. - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum have decreased, with copper inventory down 0.69% week-on-week and aluminum down 1.04% [6]. Energy Metals & Minor Metals - The report expresses a bullish outlook for energy metals, particularly cobalt, due to a temporary export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to raise prices [7]. - Nickel prices are anticipated to rebound as macroeconomic conditions improve, with Indonesia's strict control over nickel mining approvals contributing to cost support [7]. - The report also highlights the potential for a recovery in rare earth prices, driven by policy changes and increasing demand from sectors like robotics [7]. Precious Metals - The report suggests that the short-term pressures on gold prices are easing, with a focus on inflation-driven demand in the upcoming months. It anticipates a recovery in gold stock valuations as inflation concerns resurface [8]. - The report recommends monitoring specific gold stocks for potential valuation recovery, particularly in the context of a favorable economic environment [8]. Market Performance - The report notes that the metals and mining sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 6.06% increase compared to a 1.56% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [13][15]. - Specific sub-sectors within metals, such as basic non-ferrous metals and energy metals, have shown strong performance, with increases of 7.76% and 5.79% respectively [15]. Price Movements - Recent price movements indicate a general upward trend in both domestic and international metal prices, with significant increases in copper, aluminum, and other base metals [21][23]. - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, highlighting the resilience of the market despite external pressures [22][24].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 业绩改善是大方向，静待积极变化 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 低基数下非银板块 Q1 业绩增速预计延续高位，但股价连续跑输大盘及其他行业，因此我们建议重点关注 低估值绩优个股，从节奏上来看需静待业绩期补涨或政策端的积极变化；短期内可适当参与主题投资，中 长期布局板块相应红利风格个股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 谢宇尘 程泽宇 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SAC：S0490524090001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 业绩改善是大方向，静待积极变化 2] [Table_Summary2] 核心观点： 行业研究丨行业周报 [Table_Rank]投资评级 看好丨维持 1、2025 年年初以来日均成交额同比+72.5%，融资余额同比+27.6%，万得全 A 指数上涨 7.6%， 近期权 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The second-hand housing market is performing better than new housing, with a significant increase in transaction volume, which is expected to drive demand for retail renovation [3][4] - The demand for cement is recovering slowly, with a year-on-year decline in shipments, while glass inventory continues to accumulate [5][6] - The Low-Dk electronic fabric is highlighted as a critical investment opportunity due to high demand and supply barriers, with domestic alternatives accelerating [4][7] Summary by Sections Basic Situation - The sales figures for the top 100 real estate companies showed a year-on-year decline of 3.1% in sales amount and 15.6% in sales area for January-February 2025, indicating a worsening trend compared to the previous quarter [3] - In contrast, the second-hand housing market saw a year-on-year increase of 34% in transaction area for the same period, with a recent weekly increase of 42% [3] Cement Market - As of late February, the cement market is slowly recovering, with a national shipment rate increase of approximately 8.7 percentage points month-on-month, but a year-on-year decline of about 11.5% [5][19] - The average price of cement nationwide is 400.16 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.45 yuan month-on-month but an increase of 34.84 yuan year-on-year [19] Glass Market - The glass market is experiencing weak demand, with prices for float glass showing a downward trend and inventory levels increasing [6][33] - The total inventory of glass in monitored provinces reached 59.84 million weight boxes, an increase of 165,000 weight boxes week-on-week [6][33] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on Low-Dk electronic fabric investments, particularly in companies like Zhongcai Technology, which is expected to benefit significantly from this trend [4][7] - The report also highlights the potential of companies in the wind power supply chain and those with strong overseas market performance, such as Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [11] Core Insights - The government aims for a GDP growth of around 5% in 2025, supported by a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit rate set at approximately 4% and a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of nurturing emerging industries and future industries, including sectors like computing power, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, and robotics, which are expected to benefit from government policies [9][8] Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will be more aggressive, with a total public budget expenditure of 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from last year [6] - Special government bonds will be issued to support state-owned banks and local government projects, with a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 trillion yuan [6][7] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will shift from "prudent" to "moderately loose," with measures to ensure ample liquidity and support for the real economy [7] Investment Policies - The government will actively expand effective investment, focusing on key projects and ensuring funding for ongoing projects [7] Emerging Industries - The report highlights the development of strategic emerging industries, including biotechnology, quantum technology, and 6G, with a focus on large-scale application demonstrations [8] Sector Recommendations - Specific companies are recommended for investment based on their involvement in emerging sectors: - Hainan Huatie for computing power [9] - Huashe Group for low-altitude planning [9] - Shanghai Port for commercial aerospace [9] - Honglu Steel Structure for robotics [9] Market Performance - The report notes that the construction and engineering sector has seen varied performance, with specific sub-sectors showing different growth rates year-to-date [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [7] Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes the promotion of energy consumption dual control, indicating that the tasks may become more challenging. The report highlights the encouragement of rapid development of renewable energy, albeit at a steadier pace. The transition from energy consumption dual control to carbon emission dual control is expected to be a significant turning point during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with the demand for green electricity, green certificates, and direct supply of green electricity likely to accelerate [2][10] Summary by Sections Government Report Highlights - The government aims to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by approximately 3% in 2025, with continuous improvement in ecological environment quality. The target is considered challenging given the previous year's significant increase in hydropower generation [10] - The report outlines the acceleration of green low-carbon economic development and the establishment of a carbon emission dual control system, expanding the national carbon trading market's industry coverage [10] Green Electricity Consumption - The assessment of green electricity consumption is becoming more systematic, with a focus on expanding the green certificate market and enhancing the responsibility of various users for green electricity consumption. The issuance of green certificates reached 231 million in January 2025, a year-on-year increase of 225%, while the trading volume was only 53.1 million, indicating significant growth potential in 2025 [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "carbon neutrality" era and electricity market reform will reshape the intrinsic value of electricity operators. It recommends focusing on quality transformation in thermal power operators such as China Resources Power, Huadian International, and Huaneng International, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [10][12][13][14][15][16]