Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9] Core Insights - The analysis predicts a significant supply-demand gap for thermal coal in Q4 2025, with potential inventory reductions of 39.04 million tons or 54.11 million tons depending on different growth rate assumptions for electricity generation [2][7] - Despite an expected increase in imports due to rising coal prices, the overall supply-demand gap is anticipated to widen, indicating further potential for price increases [2][7] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - For Q4 2025, domestic supply is projected to decrease by 0.4% to 1.03 billion tons, assuming supply growth aligns with September's rates [7] - The report estimates that if electricity generation growth matches the past five years' average, the supply-demand gap could reach approximately 19.84 million tons [7] - Current coal inventories at major ports and power plants have decreased year-on-year, suggesting a tightening supply situation [7] Price Trends - As of October 31, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is stable at 770 RMB per ton, with expectations for price fluctuations in the upcoming quarter due to seasonal demand [6][17] - The report highlights that the coal price may experience upward pressure due to ongoing supply constraints and the approaching winter season [6][17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases [7][30] - It emphasizes a mixed strategy of defensive and offensive investments in the coal sector, recommending stocks with low price-to-book ratios and high dividend yields [7][30]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨新集能源（601918.SH） [Table_Title] 新集能源：Q3 煤电盈利环比均改善，展望 2026 年价值成长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报：2025Q1-Q3 实现归母净利润 14.77 亿元，同比减少 3.5 亿元（-19%）； 2025Q3 实现归母净利润 5.56 亿元，同比减少 0.9 亿元（-14%），环比+1.7 亿元（+43%）。整 体而言，公司 2025Q3 煤电盈利环比均改善，2026 年展望投产带来的价值成长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 %% %% research.95579.com 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_scodeMsg2] 新集能源（6 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue performance met expectations, with a significant increase in net profit primarily due to substantial investment income from REITs issuance. The company achieved a revenue of 39.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%, and a net profit of 47.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 210.7% [6][12]. - The gross margin decreased quarter-on-quarter, likely due to the increased proportion of leasing business, while the fixed asset scale expanded rapidly driven by the development of leasing business and IDC scale delivery [2][12]. - The successful issuance and listing of public REITs allowed the company to effectively revitalize its existing assets and establish a light-asset operation platform [2][12]. - The company has rich experience in liquid cooling delivery and a leading strategic layout, which positions it to benefit continuously amid the AI arms race among domestic cloud vendors [2][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 39.8 billion yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 47.0 billion yuan, up 210.7% year-on-year. The net profit for Q3 alone reached 38.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 598.4% [6][12]. - The investment income for Q3 was 37.6 billion yuan, mainly from the transfer of a wholly-owned subsidiary to the Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, resulting in significant equity disposal gains [12]. Asset Management and REITs - The company successfully issued a public REIT on August 8, raising 4.5 billion yuan, which activated quality existing assets and optimized the capital structure [12]. - The REIT platform supports a full-cycle capital operation system, enhancing the company's sustainable operational capabilities [12]. Strategic Developments - The company has been proactive in deploying liquid cooling technology, having collaborated with clients since early 2021. It has delivered the industry's first large-scale liquid-cooled intelligent computing center, establishing a strong trust foundation with clients [12]. - The company is currently advancing the construction of a 200MW intelligent computing center project in Langfang, designed to liquid cooling standards, which is expected to respond quickly to large-scale liquid cooling demand [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The company is firmly advancing its "Connection + Computing Power" transformation strategy, with a stable foundation in connection business and a significant increase in computing power business, which has driven revenue growth of 180% year-on-year, accounting for approximately 25% of total revenue [5][12] - The company has shown effective cost control, with an increase in the proportion of government and enterprise business, although there are structural fluctuations in gross margin and a phase adjustment in profitability [12] - Strong R&D investment continues to enhance the company's full-stack intelligent computing capabilities [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 100.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.7% year-on-year [5] - In Q3 alone, the company reported operating revenue of 28.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 24.9%, with a net profit of 260 million yuan, down 87.8% year-on-year and 89.8% quarter-on-quarter [5] Business Segments - The computing power business has seen a year-on-year revenue increase of 180%, becoming a core growth driver, with server and storage revenue growing by 250% and data center products by 120% [12] - The government and enterprise business has continued to expand rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 130% [12] Cost Management - The gross margin for Q3 was 25.9%, down 14.5 percentage points year-on-year and 5.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the rapid growth of lower-margin government and enterprise business [12] - The company has effectively managed expenses, with an expense ratio of 9.7% for the first three quarters, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [12] R&D Investment - The company has maintained high R&D investment, with R&D expenses of 17.81 billion yuan for the first three quarters, accounting for approximately 18% of revenue [12] - The company has made significant advancements in AI infrastructure and core technology breakthroughs, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [12] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 8.578 billion yuan, 9.396 billion yuan, and 10.556 billion yuan, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 2.0%, 9.5%, and 12.3% respectively [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 938 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.03%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 31 million yuan, a significant increase of 1155.49% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 17 million yuan, up 361.55% year-on-year. However, in Q3 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 2.38% year-on-year, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of 22 million yuan and a net loss after deducting non-recurring items of 33 million yuan [3][4][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 938 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.03%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 31 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1155.49%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 17 million yuan, up 361.55% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 305 million yuan, down 2.38% year-on-year, with a net loss of 22 million yuan and a net loss after deducting non-recurring items of 33 million yuan [3][4][9]. Key Events - The termination of the contract for "Three Kingdoms: Strategy Edition" has negatively impacted profits. In the first three quarters of 2025, this game accounted for 50.12% of revenue and 61.20% of gross profit. The contract was terminated in September 2025, leading to a goodwill impairment provision of 47.5084 million yuan in Q3 2025, which pressured the company's profit [9]. Future Prospects - The company is focusing on new game launches to drive future performance. The independent game "Huo Xia Chuan" received a significant update at the end of August, and a new action game based on "True Three Kingdoms Warriors 8" is in the review stage. Additionally, the game "Magic Bobo" has obtained a license and is expected to launch soon [9]. AI Strategy - The company is actively advancing its AI strategy, showcasing the AI virtual character "Qiu Yu" at the Qingdao Copyright Expo. The company aims to integrate AI capabilities into social products and has established collaborations across various sectors to enhance the commercial value of its IP [9]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 70 million yuan and 150 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.15 yuan and 0.30 yuan [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 9.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 470 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%. The stable revenue was impacted by the payment of corporate income tax [2][6]. - The sanitation equipment industry is recovering, with a continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy. The company’s gross profit margin remains under pressure, and the expense ratio has slightly increased. The initial results of new business layouts are evident, with expectations for growth in overseas orders to open up long-term opportunities [2][12]. - The company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 23.0%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratio was 14.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60.1% [6]. - The company paid 53 million yuan in corporate income tax and 5 million yuan in late fees, impacting the net profit by 58 million yuan. Excluding this impact, the net profit would have been 530 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4% [12]. Industry Insights - The sanitation equipment industry saw sales of 57,700 units in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. New energy sanitation equipment sales reached 10,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 68.6%, with a cumulative penetration rate of 17.8% [12]. - The company sold 8,836 units in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with new energy sales of 2,917 units, a year-on-year increase of 71.7% [12]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on overseas market demand in the traditional fuel high machine sector, actively developing various overseas products, which is expected to enhance its global strategy [12]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 590 million, 680 million, and 890 million yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 38x, 33x, and 25x, respectively [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and is maintained [6] Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 20 million yuan. In Q3 alone, the revenue reached 110 million yuan, up 38.9% year-on-year, with a net profit loss of 3.05 million yuan [2][4] - The gross margin of the distiller's grains feed products is showing signs of recovery, and new factories are gradually turning profitable. The rapid development of the bio-fermented feed business has led to a slight increase in expenses, but customer coverage continues to expand, with expectations for performance improvement [2][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 250 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 20 million yuan. In Q3, the revenue was 110 million yuan, marking a 38.9% increase year-on-year, while the net profit loss was 3.05 million yuan [2][4] Business Segments - The bio-fermented feed segment saw a sales volume of 131,800 tons in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 62.48%, generating sales revenue of 200 million yuan, up 18.74%. In Q3, the sales volume was 59,400 tons, a 95.61% increase year-on-year, with sales revenue of 90 million yuan, up 42.50% year-on-year [10] - The inorganic waste treatment service business generated sales revenue of 40 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [10] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for the bio-fermented feed business has shown recovery, with Q3 gross margin increasing by 8.88 percentage points to 20.92%. The company incurred a total loss of 21.78 million yuan from new factories in the first three quarters, with losses narrowing in Q3 [10] - The expense ratio increased by 0.7 percentage points to 31.6%, with the sales expense ratio decreasing by 2.4 percentage points to 4.7%, while the management expense ratio rose by 0.2 percentage points to 21.3% [10] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has successfully entered the supplier lists of several well-known end customers, including New Hope Group and Haida Group, establishing a good market reputation. The production capacity of the bio-fermented feed business has rapidly increased from 50,000 tons/year to 470,000 tons/year [10] - The company is expected to continue facing losses in 2025, with a potential turnaround in 2026, and a projected net profit of 46 million yuan in 2027 [10]

Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend in November, driven by the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and consensus on trade issues between China and the U.S.[4] - Market valuations are likely to recover from tariff disruptions experienced in October, with improving market confidence and risk appetite in the technology sector[4]. Investment Strategy - Focus on three main lines: 1. Technology growth, particularly in AI hardware like storage and optical modules, as well as high-demand sectors such as energy storage and power grids[4]. 2. Market hotspots, including military industry and gaming sectors, guided by policy and fundamental improvements[4]. 3. Industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as chemicals and photovoltaics, optimizing supply-demand dynamics[4]. Key Industry Recommendations - **Metals**: Luoyang Molybdenum Co. is expected to increase copper production capacity by approximately 60% by 2028, benefiting from rising copper prices[9]. - **Chemicals**: Yara International is expanding its potash production capacity, with a projected output of 1.815 million tons in 2024[10]. - **New Energy**: Sungrow Power Supply is positioned to gain significantly from the growing U.S. data center market, with expected profit increases[11]. - **Machinery**: Magpower is expanding its product range and increasing its international market share, with projected net profits of 4.5 billion and 9.4 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively[12]. - **Military**: Guangdong Hongda is integrating quality defense assets, enhancing revenue and profit in the defense sector[13]. - **Automotive**: Top Group is expected to benefit from partnerships with major automotive brands, with projected net profits of 28.0 billion yuan in 2025[17]. - **Home Appliances**: Anker Innovations is projected to achieve net profits of 26.57 billion yuan in 2025, maintaining a strong growth trajectory[18]. - **Electronics**: Zhaoyi Innovation is experiencing a robust growth cycle, with a projected net profit of 2.39 billion yuan in 2025[19]. - **Communications**: Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to see net profits of 101.4 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 96%[20]. - **Media**: Kaiying Network is expanding its product offerings, with a 65% growth in information services in the first half of the year[21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 7.008 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 682 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 720 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing year-on-year declines of 8%, 26%, and 18% respectively. In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.457 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 362 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 292 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -10%, +1%, and -15% respectively [2][7]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue decline in Q3 was influenced by weak industry demand, although the decline was less severe compared to Q2. The revenue from the retail segment decreased due to the industry's weak performance, with a 16% year-on-year decline in the overall assembly segment. The company's brand resilience was stronger than other brands, with revenue declines of 8% for the Sophia brand and 18% for the Milan brand in the first three quarters [8]. Cost Management and Margins - The gross margin improved year-on-year, while the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items slightly decreased. In Q3 2025, the gross margin increased by 1.0 percentage points, with changes in net profit margins attributable to shareholders and excluding non-recurring items of +1.6 and -0.7 percentage points respectively. The improvement in gross margin was primarily due to cost control measures, including raw material cost management and expense optimization [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing a multi-brand, full-category, and omni-channel strategy. It has launched products to attract customers and empower distributors, while also expanding its digital marketing efforts. The company has transformed its retail stores into integrated home stores and is continuously expanding its partnerships with construction companies in the integrated home segment [8]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with projected net profits of approximately 1.02 billion yuan, 1.10 billion yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of about 12, 11, and 10 times. The anticipated dividend for 2024 is 960 million yuan, representing 88% of the net profit excluding non-recurring items, which corresponds to a current dividend yield of 7.8% [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 20.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.57 billion, up 129.8% year-on-year [6][11] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its strong fee-based business and balance sheet management capabilities, establishing competitive advantages in brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and trading, leading to a steady increase in ROE through client-driven and wealth management businesses [2][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 20.76 billion and 6.57 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 54.4% and 129.8%. The weighted average ROE increased by 3.65 percentage points to 6.29% [6][11] - The company's brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and proprietary trading revenues were 4.52 billion, 2.94 billion, 1.06 billion, and 11.03 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 76.3%, 42.6%, 26.6%, and 47.7% [11] Business Development - The company is actively expanding its international business, enhancing its influence in cross-border operations. It maintains a leading market share in the mutual connectivity trading mechanism and has ranked first in the execution of H-share full circulation projects [11] - The average daily trading volume for equity funds in the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.93 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 109.5%, with the company's brokerage revenue growing by 76.3% [11] Market Position - The company ranked first in the market for Hong Kong IPO financing with a scale of 31.82 billion Hong Kong dollars, a year-on-year increase of 56.8%. Its A-share IPO and refinancing scales were 12.54 billion and 91.74 billion respectively, with year-on-year increases of 325% and 262% [11] - The company's financial asset scale reached 416.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, with an investment return rate of 3.73%, up 0.90 percentage points year-on-year [11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 8.68 billion and 9.48 billion for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with corresponding H-share PE ratios of 11.54 and 10.56 times, and PB ratios of 0.99 and 0.91 times [11]