固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] XGBoost 模型预测 10Y 国债收益率走势 ——走在债市曲线之前系列报告（六） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本报告探讨了用 XGBoost 模型预测 10 年期国债收益率的相关内容，指出国债收益率预测面临 数据端低信噪比、模型端局限及市场端"测不准"等挑战。XGBoost 因适配中小规模表格数据、 可解释性强等优势，成为优选模型。报告介绍了模型搭建逻辑，包括数据处理、样本加权等步 骤。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 30 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title XGBoost 模型预测 2] 10Y 国债收益率走势 ——走在债市曲线之前系列报告（六） [Table_Summary2] 模型实现精准预测的三重挑战 作为金融市 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The company reported a total revenue of 3.19 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23.9%, primarily due to uneven scheduling of film projects by New Classics Media [2][4] - The gross profit was 1.61 billion yuan, down 22.6% year-on-year, but the gross margin increased by 0.8 percentage points to 50.5% [2][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 850 million yuan, an increase of 68.5% year-on-year, while the Non-IFRS net profit was 508 million yuan, a decrease of 27.7% [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, revenue from copyright operations and other businesses was 1.205 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.4% year-on-year, with copyright revenue down 48.4% to 1.138 billion yuan due to no new film releases from New Classics Media [8] - Online business revenue totaled 1.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with self-owned platform product revenue at 1.746 billion yuan, up 3.1% [8] - Revenue from Tencent product channels decreased by 25.6% to 97 million yuan, while third-party platform revenue increased by 23.1% to 142 million yuan [8] IP Ecosystem Growth - The company saw explosive growth in its IP content ecosystem, adding approximately 200,000 new authors and 410,000 new novels, with a total of 20 billion new words created [8] - The number of new signed works generating over 1 million yuan in revenue increased by 63% year-on-year, and the number of new authors achieving average subscriptions over 10,000 increased by 45% [8] - The company launched over 2,000 web literature IPs for high-quality short dramas, with the first batch of 300 IPs released [8] AI and Overseas Expansion - The company introduced the "Miaobi Tongjian," an AI writing assistant that improved interaction frequency with authors by 40% and increased daily active users by over 40% [8] - Revenue from AI-translated works on the overseas reading platform WebNovel grew by 38% year-on-year, accounting for over 35% of total novel revenue on the platform [8]

Economic Performance - In July, industrial added value grew by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year[7] - Fixed asset investment from January to July saw a year-on-year increase of 1.6%[7] Investment Trends - In July, fixed asset investment experienced a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, driven by manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments dropping by 0.3%, 5.1%, and 17.0% respectively[8] - The construction installation engineering growth rate fell to -6.0% in July, indicating a downturn in the construction sector[8] Consumption Insights - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July, with significant contributions from the automotive and home appliance sectors declining[8] - Restaurant revenue growth remained low, with a slight increase to 1.1% year-on-year, reflecting weak consumer spending in the service sector[8] Export Dependency - The report emphasizes that export performance remains a critical anchor for growth, as domestic demand alone may not suffice to fill production gaps if exports weaken[8] - July saw a decline in export delivery value growth, dropping below 1.0% year-on-year, indicating a weakening support for production from exports[8] Risk Factors - External economic volatility and uncertainty in policy responses pose risks to future growth, particularly if export trends continue to decline[8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the sports footwear and apparel industry [6] Core Insights - The global sports footwear and apparel market is projected to reach $407.3 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 4.6% from 2015 to 2024 [12][13] - The penetration rate of sports footwear and apparel is expected to reach 21.7% in 2024, with sports footwear at 45.7% and sports apparel at 15.7% [13] - The domestic market in China is expected to grow to 408.9 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 5.0% from 2019 to 2024, indicating a more favorable growth compared to the overall apparel sector [16] Summary by Sections 1. Market Growth and Trends - The global sports footwear and apparel market has shown resilience and is expected to grow steadily, with a significant increase in penetration rates [12][13] - In China, the market is also expanding, with a notable increase in the share of sports footwear and apparel within the overall footwear and apparel market [16] 2. Competitive Landscape - The global market is characterized by high concentration, with Nike and Adidas holding significant market shares of 13.4% and 8.2% respectively [44] - The CR10 (Cumulative Market Share of Top 10 Brands) in the global sports footwear and apparel market is 36.9% [44] - In China, the CR10 has reached 73%, with domestic brands gaining market share against international competitors [50] 3. Growth Drivers - National sports policies are increasingly supporting the industry, with infrastructure development and promotion of various sports [20][21] - There is a growing awareness of health among the population, leading to increased spending on sports and fitness [26][27] - The trend of consumption upgrading is driving the growth of niche sports segments, such as marathons and yoga [31][32] - The diversification of sportswear into everyday fashion (Athleisure) is expanding the market [36][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - In the short term, the cotton sock business is expected to see better orders in H2 2025 compared to H1 due to changes in customer ordering patterns. The seamless segment is anticipated to improve further with increased production capacity in Vietnam and new customer acquisitions. Long-term prospects remain positive with a focus on key customers, strong R&D, and cost reduction efforts, leading to stable growth in cotton socks and potential for the seamless segment to become a growth driver [2][5][6]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 300 million, 330 million, and 370 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -6%, +7%, and +13%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 11, 11, and 9 times, with a dividend yield of 5.3% based on a 60% payout ratio [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 1.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 14.5% to 142 million yuan. In Q2 alone, revenues were 610 million yuan, with a net profit of 82 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.5% and 2.2% year-on-year respectively. The dividend payout ratio for H1 reached 61% [4][5]. Business Segments - **Cotton Socks**: Revenue is expected to remain stable, with profit margins anticipated to improve sequentially. The demand is steady, but the timing of orders from key customers has impacted revenue growth. H2 is expected to see better performance due to the peak ordering season and improved order certainty from some customers [5][6]. - **Seamless Segment**: Revenue is projected to grow steadily, supported by effective management and high-priced product shipments. The profitability is expected to improve as the Vietnamese production base stabilizes and customer structure optimizes [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 4.06 billion USD in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 170 million USD, down 7.2% year-on-year [2][4]. - The manufacturing business reported revenue of 2.80 billion USD, up 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 160 million USD, down 0.2% year-on-year. Conversely, the retail segment, represented by Bao Sheng International, saw revenue of 1.26 billion USD, down 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 30 million USD, down 44.3% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.4 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 48% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment showed robust growth with a Q2 revenue of 1.47 billion USD, up 6.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million USD, up 29.2% year-on-year. The output volume increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and the average selling price rose by 3.9% year-on-year [7]. - The capacity utilization rate improved to 95%, although there were regional disparities in capacity load and rising labor costs, leading to a slight decrease in gross margin [7]. Retail Business - The retail segment faced challenges with Bao Sheng International reporting a Q2 revenue decline of 11.1% year-on-year and a net profit drop of 69.2% year-on-year. The company closed 40 stores in H1 2025, with same-store sales declining significantly [7]. - Despite a slight improvement in discount rates, the increase in selling, general and administrative expenses led to a decrease in net profit margin [7]. Future Outlook - The manufacturing business is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of production capacity in Indonesia and new capacity in India, which may help address regional capacity imbalances [7]. - The retail business is under pressure in the short term, but a multi-channel operation and diversified brand strategy may drive future growth [7]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 360 million USD, 400 million USD, and 450 million USD, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - For FY2026Q1 (March 30, 2025 - June 28, 2025), VF achieved revenue of $1.76 billion, a slight decline of 2% year-on-year at fixed exchange rates, which is better than market expectations and the company's prior guidance [2][4] - The gross margin increased by 2.7 percentage points to 53.9%, driven mainly by improved discounts and exchange rate factors [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - **By Brand**: - Vans continued to face pressure with a revenue decline of 15% to $500 million - The North Face grew by 5% to $560 million - Timberland increased by 9% to $260 million [5] - **By Region**: - Revenue in the Americas declined by 3% to $940 million - EMEA saw a decrease of 2% to $550 million - APAC grew by 4% to $270 million, with Greater China down by 6% [5] - **By Channel**: - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue fell by 4% to $720 million - Wholesale channel revenue remained flat at $1.04 billion [5] Inventory and Tariff Impact - At the end of FY2026Q1, the company's inventory increased by 4% year-on-year to $2.14 billion, maintaining overall healthy inventory quality [10] - Tariff expectations are projected to impact gross profit by $60-70 million in FY2026, with half of this expected to occur in FY2026 [10] Performance Guidance - For FY2026Q2, the company expects revenue to decline by 2%-4% year-on-year at fixed exchange rates, with adjusted operating profit projected between $260 million and $290 million [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The report indicates that for FY2025Q2 (April 1, 2025 - June 30, 2025), the company achieved revenue of 750 million CHF, exceeding expectations (Bloomberg consensus expected 700 million CHF), with a year-on-year growth of 38.2% at constant exchange rates. The gross margin increased by 1.6 percentage points to 61.5%, primarily due to a higher proportion of revenue from the Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channel, reduced shipping costs, and favorable foreign exchange impacts from the depreciation of the US dollar [2][6][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - Revenue continued to grow with strong performance across products and channels. 1. By region: FY2025Q2 revenue in the Americas increased by 23.6% year-on-year to 430 million CHF, driven by strong market demand and improved operational capabilities. EMEA and Asia-Pacific regions saw revenue growth of 46.1% and 110.9% year-on-year, reaching 200 million CHF and 120 million CHF respectively, with Greater China experiencing over 100% growth due to store expansion and rapid growth in same-store sales and e-commerce channels [7]. 2. By channel: FY2025Q2 revenue from DTC and wholesale channels grew by 54.3% and 28.8% year-on-year to 310 million CHF and 440 million CHF respectively. The strong growth in DTC was driven by increased global brand awareness and customer engagement, with DTC revenue accounting for 41.1% of total revenue, a new high for Q2 [7]. 3. By product: FY2025Q2 revenue for footwear, apparel, and accessories grew by 36.0%, 75.5%, and 143.2% year-on-year, reaching 700 million CHF, 40 million CHF, and 8 million CHF respectively. The strong growth in footwear was mainly driven by categories such as running, tennis, and outdoor sports, while increased customer loyalty in apparel contributed to revenue growth [7]. Inventory and Guidance - The company maintained a healthy inventory level, with FY2025Q2 inventory down by 10.2% year-on-year to 360 million CHF. The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance, now expecting at least a 31% year-on-year increase, translating to sales of 2.91 billion CHF (previous guidance was 28% and 2.86 billion CHF). The expected gross margin is between 60.5% and 61%, up from the previous range of 60% to 60.5% [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 178.886 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.27%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 30.485 billion yuan, up 33.33% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 27.197 billion yuan, an increase of 35.62% year-on-year [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 94.182 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 16.523 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.73%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 15.368 billion yuan, up 42.21% year-on-year [2][4]. - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from power batteries was 131.57 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 16.80%, while the gross margin was 22.41%, a decrease of 1.07 percentage points year-on-year. The revenue from energy storage batteries was 28.4 billion yuan, down 1.47% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.52%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The company’s lithium battery shipments approached 150 GWh in the second quarter of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of over 30%, indicating a faster growth rate in power battery shipments compared to the industry [10]. Business Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing expansion of its factory in Hungary and the planned factory in Spain, which will enhance its market share in Europe. The company is also extending its business into downstream system integration, with projects in the Middle East and Australia contributing to profitability [10]. - The long-term value of new businesses, such as battery swapping and energy storage for data centers, is not yet reflected in the current market valuation. Successful implementation of these initiatives could significantly enhance market share and profitability [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing adjustments, with leading brands in high-end and regional segments remaining relatively stable. The industry is currently in a phase of active destocking, with expectations of demand recovery as macroeconomic conditions improve. High-end brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are recommended [5][18] - The yellow wine sector is entering a new price increase cycle, with significant concentration in the market. Leading brands are collaborating strategically and expanding into new markets, particularly focusing on high-end product lines [6][19] - The mass consumer goods segment is facing pressure from the restaurant chain demand, but certain sub-sectors like dairy products and condiments show promising growth potential. The dairy sector is expected to stabilize with the introduction of child-rearing subsidies, while condiment companies are managing inventory pressures effectively [7][22][24] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is currently in a destocking phase, with a short-term impact from policy changes. However, the demand structure differs from previous cycles, and recovery is anticipated as consumer confidence improves. High-end brands are expected to perform well, with Kweichow Moutai projected to achieve a 7% revenue growth in Q2 2025 [5][18] - The yellow wine market has seen a significant increase in concentration, with the top three brands holding approximately 43% market share as of 2023. Price increases are expected for key products, with brands like Kuaijishan actively promoting high-end offerings [6][19] Mass Consumer Goods - The dairy sector is experiencing a slight decline in production, but demand is showing signs of improvement. The introduction of a national child-rearing subsidy is expected to enhance long-term demand for dairy products [7][22] - The condiment industry is managing inventory pressures better than in previous years, with leading companies expected to achieve stable growth despite short-term challenges. Key players include Haitian Flavoring and Qianhe Flavoring [24] - The beer sector is facing challenges in the on-premise consumption channel, but companies are adapting by exploring new retail channels. Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer are highlighted as key recommendations [25][27] Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is entering a new normal with stable demand. The total revenue for the restaurant sector in the first half of 2025 reached 27,480 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3%. Companies are seeking new channels for growth, with recommendations for Guoquan and Lihai Foods [8][28] Key Individual Stocks - Kweichow Moutai is expected to maintain a strong market position with a projected revenue of 396.5 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a 7.26% year-on-year increase [31] - Wuliangye is anticipated to outperform the industry average, with revenue and profit growth expected to remain positive [31] - Yili Group is projected to achieve a revenue growth of around 8% in Q2 2025, benefiting from a favorable inventory situation [39]