Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Daily Frequency "High/Low Volume" Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: Define "high volume at high price" and "high volume at low price" events using daily frequency data to identify event signals and construct a capital channel strategy [1][13] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define "low volume" events: - Closing price is in the bottom 10% percentile of the past 120 trading days - Trading volume exceeds the average of the past 120 trading days by 1.5 standard deviations 2. Define "high volume" events: - Closing price is in the top 90% percentile of the past 120 trading days - Trading volume exceeds the average of the past 120 trading days by 1.5 standard deviations [13] 3. Construct a capital channel strategy: - Set up 4 capital channels, each with a holding period of 20 trading days - At the beginning of each week, review the past 5 trading days and identify stocks that triggered high/low volume signals - Equally allocate funds to the identified stocks at the beginning of the week and hold for 20 trading days - Calculate the net value of the capital channel portfolio by summing the net values of the 4 channels [18] - **Model Evaluation**: The daily frequency "high/low volume" signals showed that the average excess return peaked around 20-25 trading days after the signal was triggered, but the returns were volatile and did not provide stable incremental returns [1][13][18] 2. Model Name: High-Frequency "High/Low Volume" Event Cluster - **Model Construction Idea**: Use high-frequency micro-level price and volume data to construct more stable "high/low volume" event clusters, which are less correlated and more effective [2][25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Event Identification**: - Define "high/low price" using minute-level closing price data - Define "high/low volume" using minute-level trading volume data, considering factors such as "who's volume," "direction of volume," and "type of volume" [26][29][32] 2. **Signal Definition**: - Combine "high/low price" and "high/low volume" using two methods: - "Price first, volume second": Identify high/low price points first, then check if volume is high - "Volume first, price second": Identify high volume points first, then check if price is high/low [42][43] 3. **Signal Screening and Synthesis**: - Produce thousands of event signals by combining different identification methods - Evaluate the effectiveness and correlation of each signal - Retain effective and low-correlation signals to form "high volume event cluster" and "low volume event cluster" - Synthesize signals to construct comprehensive "high volume" and "low volume" signals [26][44][45] - **Model Evaluation**: The high-frequency "low volume" comprehensive signal provided stable positive excess returns, while the "high volume" comprehensive signal demonstrated strong negative selection effects [50][57] 3. Model Name: Combined "High/Low Volume" Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine the positive selection effect of the "low volume" signal with the negative selection effect of the "high volume" signal to enhance the performance of the capital channel strategy [3][58] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use the "low volume" comprehensive signal to pre-screen the stock pool 2. Exclude stocks that triggered the "high volume" comprehensive signal in the past 5 trading days 3. Construct a capital channel strategy: - Set up 4 capital channels, each with a holding period of 20 trading days - At the beginning of each week, review the past 5 trading days and identify stocks that meet the combined signal criteria - Equally allocate funds to the identified stocks at the beginning of the week and hold for 20 trading days - Calculate the net value of the capital channel portfolio by summing the net values of the 4 channels [58] - **Model Evaluation**: The combination of the two signals improved the performance of the capital channel strategy, enhancing both returns and stability [58][60] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Daily Frequency "High/Low Volume" Signal - **Low Volume Signal**: - Annualized excess return: 7.67% - IR: 2.22 - Maximum drawdown: 4.68% [50][51] - **High Volume Signal**: - Annualized excess return: -10.16% - IR: -0.44 - Maximum drawdown: 8.47% [57] 2. High-Frequency "High/Low Volume" Event Cluster - **Low Volume Comprehensive Signal**: - Annualized excess return: 7.67% - IR: 2.22 - Maximum drawdown: 4.68% [50][51] - **High Volume Comprehensive Signal**: - Annualized excess return: -10.16% - IR: -0.44 - Maximum drawdown: 8.47% [57] 3. Combined "High/Low Volume" Signal - **Combined Signal**: - Annualized excess return: 9.14% - IR: 2.42 - Maximum drawdown: 3.70% [60] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Low Volume Signal - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identify stocks with low prices and high trading volumes as potential candidates for positive returns [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define "low price" as the closing price in the bottom 10% percentile of the past 120 trading days 2. Define "high volume" as trading volume exceeding the average of the past 120 trading days by 1.5 standard deviations 3. Combine the two conditions to identify "low volume" events [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The low volume signal showed positive returns, peaking around 20-25 trading days after the signal was triggered, but the returns were volatile [1][13] 2. Factor Name: High Volume Signal - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identify stocks with high prices and high trading volumes as potential candidates for negative returns [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define "high price" as the closing price in the top 90% percentile of the past 120 trading days 2. Define "high volume" as trading volume exceeding the average of the past 120 trading days by 1.5 standard deviations 3. Combine the two conditions to identify "high volume" events [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The high volume signal showed negative returns, with stocks underperforming after the signal was triggered [15][18] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Low Volume Signal - Annualized excess return: 7.67% - IR: 2.22 - Maximum drawdown: 4.68% [50][51] 2. High Volume Signal - Annualized excess return: -10.16% - IR: -0.44 - Maximum drawdown: 8.47% [57]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) as a leading global AI PCB manufacturer, emphasizing its deep engagement with top GPU and ASIC clients [15][16][18] - The company has achieved significant advancements in HDI technology, being one of the first to mass-produce 6-layer 24-layer HDI products and is actively developing next-generation 10-layer 30-layer HDI technology [16] - Shenghong Technology is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with ongoing projects in Thailand and Vietnam, and is enhancing its collaboration with major clients to align with their R&D and production schedules [17] Group 2: Financial Projections - The revenue forecast for Shenghong Technology is projected to reach 370 billion and 599 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with expected net profits of 120 billion and 197 billion yuan [18] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing value of PCBs in AI servers, which will further strengthen its competitive position in the market [16][18] Group 3: Industry Context - The report notes that the AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant investments from major players like Google, which has increased its capital expenditure guidance for the year [15] - The demand for advanced PCB technology is rising in line with the growth of AI applications, positioning Shenghong Technology favorably within this expanding market [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the precision forging gear industry, actively expanding into new products and markets, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [2][12]. - The company is transitioning from a single gear business to a more comprehensive assembly business, enhancing its product structure and value [2][35]. - The company is also venturing into the lightweight aluminum components for electric vehicles and the robotics sector, which is expected to create a second growth curve [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of growth, with a rich product matrix including automotive differential gears and components for electric vehicles [12]. - It has a clear shareholding structure and a diversified subsidiary layout, with 10 wholly-owned subsidiaries covering the entire industry chain [21][17]. - The customer base includes major domestic and international OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, with ongoing efforts to expand into overseas and new energy markets [23][25]. 2. Business Expansion - The company is upgrading from individual gear components to complete differential assemblies, which increases the value per vehicle [2][35]. - The assembly business is projected to generate revenue of 492 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.84%, becoming the second-largest revenue source [2][35]. 3. Lightweight and Robotics Initiatives - The company is tapping into the lightweight demand driven by the electric vehicle trend, focusing on key components that meet lightweight and low-noise requirements [2][19]. - It is also entering the robotics sector, establishing a joint venture to develop robotic joint components, which is expected to enhance growth opportunities [2][3]. 4. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 153 million, 204 million, and 252 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -4.3%, 33.5%, and 23.5% [2][3]. - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 2.149 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 6.1% [3][4].

公司 FY2026H1 营收同比下降 1.1%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%，经营 表现稳步改善。公司披露 FY2026H1 中报，公司营收同比下降 1.1%至 389.86 亿港元，与此同时受益于产品结构优化以及公司良好的费用管控， 经营利润率同比提升 0.3pcts 至 17.5%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%至 68.23 亿港元，呈现稳步复苏的态势，综合考虑黄金借贷公允价值变动的影响后， 归母净利润同比增长 0.1%至 25.34 亿港元。公司派发中期股息每股 0.22 港元，派息率 85.7%。 证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 26 年 月 日 周大福（01929.HK） FY2026H1 经营表现稳健，期待下半财年复苏表现 内地：FY2026H1 内地营收下降 2.5%，公司持续优化渠道网络。 FY2026H1 中国内地营收同比下降 2.5%至 321.94 亿港元，其中零售/批 发渠道营收同比+8.1%/-10.2%，门店整合导致批发业务营收下降。 ➢ 渠道端：FY2026H1 线下聚焦单店运营优化门店，电商增速亮眼。 截止期末公司于中国内地拥有 5663 家 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the impact of Sino - US trade frictions this year, China's exports have maintained resilience. From January to October 2025, the US - dollar - denominated export value increased by 5.30% year - on - year, higher than 5.21% in the same period last year. However, the export growth rate may decline slightly next year, with the annual export year - on - year growth rate expected to slow to around 2% and showing a trend of being lower in the first half and higher in the second half [1][3][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Current Export Support Items - **Regional Perspective**: Amid trade frictions, China's export share to the US and Japan has decreased year by year, while the share to ASEAN, India, Russia, Africa, and Latin America has increased. From January to October 2025, exports to the US dragged down the overall export growth rate by 2.02 percentage points, while ASEAN, Africa, and the EU became the main drivers of export growth, with export growth rates of 14%, 26%, and 8% respectively, and export pulling rates of 2.51%, 1.52%, and 1.14% respectively [11]. - **Product Category Perspective**: Capital goods such as mechanical and electrical products, high - tech products, integrated circuits, automobiles (including chassis), ships, and mechanical equipment are the main categories driving export growth. From January to October 2025, exports of ships, integrated circuits, automobiles (including chassis), and liquid crystal flat - panel display modules achieved double - digit high growth. In contrast, exports of mobile phones, labor - intensive goods, and real - estate - related post - cycle goods showed negative growth, indicating a possible change in China's industrial structure [15]. 3.2 Reasons for Export Resilience 3.2.1 Enterprise Outbound Expansion Drives Exports - From January to October 2025, capital goods exports maintained a high growth rate, with ships and general mechanical equipment driving export growth by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points respectively. There is a positive correlation between the year - on - year growth of listed companies' overseas revenues and exports, as well as between China's outward direct investment flow and total export year - on - year growth. From 2015 - 2024, the average annual compound growth rate of exports driven by outward investment was significantly higher than that of overall exports (7.6% vs 5.2%), with an average proportion of 5.7% in overall exports and an average pull of 0.7 percentage points on overall exports. Investment in different countries also corresponds to the growth rate differences of exports of different product types to these countries [2][21][27]. 3.2.2 Re - export Trade Affects Export Country Structure - During the trade friction, the US imposed significantly higher tariffs on China than on ASEAN countries, prompting Chinese enterprises to seek Southeast Asian re - export trade to avoid high tariffs. From 2018 - 2019 and during the current trade friction, China's exports to the US decreased significantly, while exports to ASEAN and US imports from ASEAN increased significantly, indicating that re - export trade may have offset the decline in exports to the US to some extent and supported the overall export growth rate [43]. 3.2.3 Demand Growth in Some Importing Countries Supports High Export Growth - Benefiting from the mild economic recovery in the EU, the EU's import growth rate has rebounded. Since the second half of 2024, driven by interest rate cuts, defense, and infrastructure investment, the EU's GDP growth rate has remained at around 1.5%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the industrial production index has been in the positive range since February 2025, driving the EU's import growth rate from - 5% in 2024 to 4% this year. Vietnam's GDP growth rate has continued to rise this year, with the cumulative GDP growth rate in the first three quarters reaching 7.85%. Investment and consumption have also maintained high growth rates, driving China's cumulative exports to Vietnam from January to October to increase by 22.3% year - on - year [47][50]. 3.2.4 Increase in China's Import Share in Africa and Other Regions - From 2019 - 2024, the average annual compound growth rate of Africa's imports was only 5%, but the average annual growth rate of Africa's imports from China reached 10%. China's share in Africa's imports increased from 17.1% in 2019 to 21.6% in 2024, with an average annual increase of 0.9 percentage points. The reasons for the share increase include large - scale infrastructure investment in Africa, high price competitiveness of Chinese export products, zero - tariff policies for 53 African countries, and successful market expansion by Chinese exporters [54]. 3.3 Export Outlook - Although exports have maintained resilience due to multiple factors, the export growth rate may decline slightly next year. The factors supporting export resilience may weaken, and the support for next year's exports may decrease. Using a fitting model to estimate next year's export growth rate, it is expected to slow to around 2% [3][59][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in AI PCB manufacturing, leveraging significant opportunities from the AI wave and deepening partnerships with major GPU and ASIC clients [1][4]. - The company has achieved technological advancements in HDI and high-layer PCBs, with capabilities to produce 6-stage 24-layer HDI products and ongoing development for next-generation technologies [2]. - The expansion of production capacity is on track, with overseas facilities in Thailand and Vietnam progressing as planned, and domestic projects also advancing [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 37 billion yuan in 2026 and 59.9 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit estimates of 12 billion yuan and 19.7 billion yuan for the same years respectively [4][6]. - The company expects significant growth rates, with a revenue growth of 87.5% in 2025 and 84% in 2026 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 5.76 yuan in 2025 to 22.68 yuan in 2027 [6]. Production and Client Engagement - The company is enhancing its production capabilities and customer engagement by participating in key projects, allowing for early involvement in client R&D and product development [3]. - The company is focusing on long-term planning with clients, aligning its production and technology strategies with their future needs [3].

Core Insights - SF Holding (002352.SZ) is transitioning from a leading express delivery company to a comprehensive logistics service provider, leveraging its strong control over the entire logistics chain and heavy asset layout to maintain service quality and brand influence [3] - The company has achieved significant cost reductions, totaling over 3.8 billion yuan since 2021, through multi-network integration and operational transformations [3][4] - The "activation operation" strategy has led to a sustained monthly volume growth of over 30% in 2025, although there is still room for profit margin optimization due to prior investments [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - SF Holding is recognized as a direct express delivery leader, with a robust logistics network built on its direct operation model [3] - The company is expected to see supply chain and international business become its second growth curve [3] Cost Management - The integration of multiple networks has enabled resource reuse and cost reduction across the logistics chain, with a cumulative cost reduction of over 3.8 billion yuan since 2021 [3] - Operational changes, including optimization of transfer efficiency and automation, have contributed to ongoing cost improvements [3] Growth Potential - The company anticipates structural efficiency improvements and cost reductions in Q4 2025, with a forecast of stable net profit growth for the year [4] - SF Holding is positioned to benefit from economic recovery, which is expected to enhance its profit elasticity in the medium to long term [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group (09888.HK) with a target price of HKD 147 and USD 151 for BIDU.O [3] Core Insights - Baidu's revenue for Q3 2025 was CNY 31.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. The core revenue was CNY 24.7 billion, down 7.0%, with online marketing services declining by 18.4% to CNY 15.3 billion, while non-online marketing services grew by 20.4% to CNY 9.3 billion [1] - The AI business is showing significant growth, with total revenue nearing CNY 10 billion. The segments include intelligent cloud infrastructure (CNY 4.2 billion, up 33%), AI applications (CNY 2.6 billion, up 6%), and AI-native marketing services (CNY 2.8 billion, up 262%) [2] - Baidu's autonomous driving service, "Luobo Kuaipao," achieved 3.1 million orders, a 212% increase year-on-year, with 100% of its operational cities in China now offering fully autonomous driving [3] Financial Performance - For 2025, Baidu's projected revenue is CNY 128.3 billion, with a non-GAAP net profit of CNY 19.5 billion. The revenue growth rates are expected to be -3.6% in 2025, followed by a recovery of 7.3% in 2026 and 7.4% in 2027 [5][16] - The non-GAAP operating profit margin is projected to be 9.0% for 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 15.6% [1] - The report outlines a decline in online marketing services revenue, with expectations of a continued decrease of 12.5% in 2025, while intelligent cloud and other services are expected to grow significantly [16] Business Segments - Baidu's core business is expected to generate CNY 105.6 billion in revenue by 2025, with online marketing services projected to decline while intelligent cloud services are anticipated to grow [16] - The report highlights that approximately 70% of Baidu's search result pages now include AI-generated content, indicating a strong push towards AI integration in its core services [1] Market Position - Baidu's market capitalization is approximately HKD 304 billion, with a total share count of 2.83 billion shares, of which 97.05% are freely tradable [6] - The report emphasizes Baidu's strategic partnerships and global expansion efforts in the autonomous driving sector, including collaborations with international transport operators [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market continues to decline, primarily due to external volatility [3] - Global equity markets generally fell, with only Vietnam and India showing gains [3] - Commodity prices mostly decreased, and the China-US interest rate spread narrowed [3] Group 2: Fixed Income and Economic Indicators - The current Gusheng fundamental high-frequency index is 128.8 points, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1 points [3] - The industrial production high-frequency index remains at 127.5, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2 points [3] - The CPI and PPI month-on-month forecasts are both 0.1% [4] Group 3: Company Insights - Wanchen Group - Wanchen Group, established in 2011, became a key national leader in the edible fungus sector, achieving revenue of 540 million yuan in 2024 [6] - The company expanded into the snack retail sector in 2022, rapidly building a store network through acquisitions, reaching 15,365 stores by June 2025 [6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the snack retail segment generated revenue of 36.16 billion yuan, accounting for 98.9% of total revenue, with a net profit margin of 5.3% in Q3 2025 [6] Group 4: Company Insights - Saiwei Era - Saiwei Era is a technology-driven leader in cross-border apparel, leveraging a digital platform to create a multi-brand matrix [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 12.12 billion, 14.35 billion, and 16.50 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 340 million, 570 million, and 710 million yuan [7] Group 5: Company Insights - Miniso - Miniso reported a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.2% [9] - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 767 million yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 17.6% [9] - The company is positioned as a global leader in daily goods retail, expanding rapidly through a light-asset model [9] Group 6: Company Insights - Kuaishou - Kuaishou's Q3 2025 revenue reached 35.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [11] - The company recorded a total operating profit of 5.3 billion yuan, with a profit margin of approximately 14.9% [11] - E-commerce GMV grew by 15.2% to 385 billion yuan, with AI models enhancing marketing and operational efficiency [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO, reflecting confidence in its growth potential and operational efficiency [4][6]. Core Insights - MINISO has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 28.2% year-on-year increase in revenue to 5.8 billion RMB in Q3 2025, alongside an adjusted net profit growth of 11.7% to 767 million RMB [1]. - The company is expanding its store network, adding 102 new stores in mainland China, bringing the total to 4,407, while overseas operations also saw a net increase of 117 stores, totaling 3,424 [2]. - The operational efficiency of overseas direct sales has improved, with a profit margin increase, particularly in strategic markets like North America and Europe [2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Operations - In Q3 2025, MINISO's domestic revenue reached 2.91 billion RMB, marking a 19.3% year-on-year increase, with same-store sales showing high single-digit growth [1]. - The company anticipates low double-digit same-store growth in mainland China by October 2025, projecting a full-year same-store growth in the mid-single digits [1]. Overseas Operations - The overseas business generated 2.31 billion RMB in revenue, a 27.7% increase year-on-year, accounting for 44.3% of total revenue [2]. - Same-store sales in overseas markets have shown improvement, particularly in strategic regions, contributing to the overall growth of the company [2]. Financial Performance - The adjusted operating profit for Q3 2025 was 1.02 billion RMB, reflecting a 14.8% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 17.6%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The gross profit for Q3 2025 was 2.59 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 44.7%, slightly down from the previous year [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 21.3 billion RMB, 25.4 billion RMB, and 29.6 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 2.94 billion RMB, 3.48 billion RMB, and 4.08 billion RMB [4][5]. - The report indicates a continuous optimization of various business segments, products, and supply chains, supporting the company's growth trajectory [4].