证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 02 年 月 日 宏观点评 政策半月观—力争"开门红"，还有哪些政策可期？ 我们定期对每半月重大政策进行跟踪：1）中央、部委重要会议与政策； 2）地方政策；3）行业与产业政策。本期为近半月（1.19-2.1）综述。 核心结论：总体看，近半月政策推动 2026 年"开门红"多聚焦扩内需， 具体有 6 大焦点：一是 1.28-31 英国首相访华，期间中英领导人举行会 谈，并达成一系列积极成果（对英单方面免签、降低威士忌酒进口关税 率等）；二是多举措支持服务消费，包括深化自然资源要素保障支持养 老服务业 18 条，《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》出炉（将交通、 家政、网络视听、旅居、汽车后市场、入境消费等划为重点领域），向中 度以上失能老年人发放养老服务消费补贴项目，养老、托育、家政等社 区家庭服务业税费优惠政策延期等；三是 1.29 文旅部启动"2026 年全 国春节文化和旅游消费月"，从 1 月底持续至 3 月初，期间计划举办约 3 万场次文旅消费活动、发放超 3.6 亿元消费券等补贴，并推出门票减 免、跨区域优惠等普惠举措；四是 1.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-bank financial sector [5] Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is expanding the types of strategic investors to enhance long-term capital engagement with listed companies, including pension funds, insurance funds, and public funds [1][2] - The report highlights a stable regulatory environment for the insurance sector, with long-term benefits expected from trends in deposit migration and increasing demand for healthcare and retirement security [3] - The securities sector is experiencing heightened market risk appetite and active trading, benefiting both IT companies and brokerages [3] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Non-bank financial, securities II, insurance II, and fintech indices experienced fluctuations of +1.04%, -0.69%, +5.50%, and -5.78% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by -0.44% [10] - China Life Insurance led the insurance sector with an increase of +8.73% [10] Insurance - Ping An Life increased its stake in China Life H shares by purchasing 11.891 million shares at an average price of 32.0553 HKD, raising its holding to 9.14% [14] - The registered capital of China Life Property Insurance has increased from 18.8 billion RMB to 27.8 billion RMB, a growth of approximately 48% [14] - As of December, the original premium income for property insurance reached 1,470.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.60%, while life insurance premiums reached 4,649.1 billion RMB, up 9.05% [15] Securities - The A-share market was active in 2025, with daily average trading volume of 2.08 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 70.36% [24] - The number of IPO approvals surged by 109.43% year-on-year, with fundraising amounts increasing by 208.01% [24] - Listed brokerages that have released earnings forecasts expect a net profit growth of 59%-66% year-on-year [24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the insurance sector, despite short-term pressures on capital and sentiment, due to long-term trends in liabilities and stable interest rates [3][37] - In the securities sector, the report recommends focusing on companies like China Ping An A/H, China Life H, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities [3][37]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 量化周报 短期调整不足为惧 短期调整不足为惧。本周（1.26-1.30），大盘横盘震荡，上证指数全周收 跌 0.44%。在此背景下，煤炭迎来日线级别上涨。至此，25 个行业处于日 线级别上涨中。当下，我们认为市场的日线级别上涨大概率还能持续，理 由如下：1、上证指数的上涨只走了 1 浪结构，短期结束的概率低；2、目 前市场量能得以维持，走势比较健康；3、传媒、计算机、电力及公用事业 已于近期重新迎来日线级别上涨，而且上涨只走了 1 浪结构，短期结束的 概率低。本周，市场虽然出现震荡，但并未破坏原有的 30 分钟级别上涨， 也就是说当下的震荡调整连 30 分钟级别都不算，因此，我们认为市场的 短期调整不足为惧，市场仍然新高在望。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、 沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上 涨，而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪结构，中期牛市只进行到上半场；此外， 已有 27 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 18 个行业周线上涨走了 1-3 浪结 构，因此我们认为本轮牛市是个普涨格局 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 02 02 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 美联储迎来沃什，4 大关键点 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】美联储迎来沃什，4 大关键点——20260201 【宏观】物价回升如何影响税收收入？—2025 年财政回顾与 2026 年展 望——20260131 【宏观】1 月 PMI 超季节性回落的背后——20260131 【策略】月度高胜率窗口的经验与应对——20260201 【海外】优选地产、大宗和科技——2026 年 2 月海外金股推荐—— 20260131 【金融工程】短期调整不足为惧——20260201 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周拥挤度指标明显弱化——20260131 【固定收益】联储换帅、市场波动与债市逻辑——20260201 【固定收益】赎纯债、降久期、增信用——债基 2025Q4 季报分析—— 20260201 【固定收益】资金平稳跨月，存单偿还地方债放量——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20260131 【固定收益】固收+继续扩张，增配科技化工——25Q4 基金转债持仓分 析——20260131 【电新】低轨星座竞赛与太空算力革命，引爆太空光 ...

固定收益定期 联储换帅、市场波动与债市逻辑 本周债市总体震荡，各期限利率变化有限。本周债市总体震荡，10 年和 30 年 国债利率分别下降 1.9bps 上行 0.2bps 至 1.81%和 2.29%。3 年和 5 年二级 资本债分别上升 3.0bps 和下降 1.6bps。1 年 AAA 存单利率保持在 1.60%。 证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 本周末全球市场剧烈震荡，可能部分受特朗普提名新的美联储主席影响。本周 五，美国总统特朗普宣布了新的美联储主席提名人选凯文·沃什。由于此前凯 文·沃什相对于当前美联储主席鲍威尔，在货币政策表态方面更显鹰派，例如 更为主张降息与缩表并行，以及支持联储独立性等，市场因此产生对联储政策 路径不确定的担忧。进而贵金属市场和股票市场都出现了较为显著的下跌。 我们认为新任联储主席政策存在不确定性，以往表述可以参考，但也存在变化 可能。美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什是货币政策宽松、维护联储独立性以及 美元地位等多方面因素综合考量的结果。而新任联储主席的政策也可能是多 重目标和多种因素综合考虑的结果，并非完全基于上任前的 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Hongqiao [9]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has cooled, leading to a general decline in metal prices, particularly in precious metals where silver and gold experienced significant drops [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing supply constraints in the copper market, with major mining companies reducing their production forecasts due to capacity limitations [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with demand anticipated to recover as the peak season approaches [3]. - Nickel prices have shown volatility, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-side cost pressures, with expectations of limited downside due to rising production costs [4]. - Tin prices are supported by macroeconomic factors and supply chain bottlenecks, although demand remains weak ahead of the Chinese New Year [5]. - Lithium prices have retreated from highs due to regulatory impacts and market liquidity tightening, but there is expected support from supply-side maintenance and pre-holiday stocking [6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Significant declines in silver and gold prices were noted, with silver dropping 36% and gold falling over 12% in a single day [1]. - Companies to watch include Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories increased globally, with a notable rise in U.S. stocks, while Chinese inventories decreased [2]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2]. - Aluminum production is stable, but demand is fluctuating due to seasonal factors and geopolitical issues [3]. - Nickel prices fell by 5.4% due to macroeconomic sentiment, with supply-side cost pressures expected to limit further declines [4]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping 5.6% to 160,000 CNY/ton [5]. - The report indicates that companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium should be monitored [5]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have stabilized, with a slight increase in electrolytic cobalt prices [8]. - Companies to focus on include Huayou Cobalt and Liyuan Resources [8]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced a significant acquisition of a gold mining company, which could enhance its resource base [36]. - Huayou Cobalt signed a cooperation agreement for an integrated battery supply chain project in Indonesia [36]. - Tianqi Lithium reported progress on its lithium production expansion project [36].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 电力设备 独立储能发布顶层文件定调行业盈利，宁德时代新生产基地落户云南 光伏：硅片价格下移，电池组件价格上涨。据安泰科，本周多晶硅主流产品市场无成交 记录，观望情绪成为市场主导，全周未出现规模性交易，仅少数企业达成小额试探性订 单，新单签约量几近停滞。据 InfoLink，本周硅片价格延续前期下行态势，整体均价如 期下滑，市场价格重心持续下探。电池片价格方面，本周 183N、210RN、210N 型号均 价上行至 0.45 元/瓦，三款产品价格区间均为 0.43-0.45 元/瓦。受白银价格大幅上涨 推高组件生产成本影响，组件企业被迫上调报价。目前国内分布式组件报价区间为 0.8- 0.88 元/瓦，实际成交价格则在 0.75-0.8 元/瓦区间波动；TOPCon 组件国内均价上调至 0.739 元/瓦，受分布式装机占比持续提升、且分布式 TOPCon 组件成交均价涨至 0.76 元/瓦的拉动，整体价格迎来调涨。核心关注三大方向：1）供给侧改革下的产业链涨价 机会，核心关注通威股份、协鑫科技、隆基绿能、晶澳科技、晶科能源、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in coal auction listings in Mongolia for 2025, with a total of 40.8832 million tons listed, up by 14.272 million tons. However, the transaction volume is slightly lower than in 2024, at 21.792 million tons, down by 0.576 million tons [2] - The report emphasizes the performance of specific companies, recommending investments in China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. It also highlights companies focusing on smart mining, such as Keda Control, and those undergoing turnaround, like China Qinfa [3][7] - The report notes that the core port for coal transactions remains Ganqimaodu, contributing 83% of the total transaction volume [2] Summary by Sections Energy Prices Overview - As of January 30, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, up by $4.81 (7.3%) from the previous week. WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.21 per barrel, up by $4.14 (6.78%) [1] - Natural gas prices showed mixed trends, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.68 per million British thermal units, down by $0.13 (-1.11%). The Dutch TTF gas futures settled at €40.65 per megawatt-hour, up by €1.28 (3.24%) [1] - Coal prices increased, with European ARA port coal prices at $101.50 per ton, up by $3.00 (3.05%), and Newcastle port coal prices at $116.75 per ton, up by $5.25 (4.71%) [1] Auction Performance - The report indicates that ETT led the auction with a transaction of 12.5696 million tons, followed by small TT and ER with 5.3632 million tons and 3.1296 million tons, respectively. The report also notes that coking coal transactions totaled 13.6192 million tons, down by 3.0656 million tons, while thermal coal transactions increased by 3.584 million tons to 8.1728 million tons [6] Key Stocks - The report provides a detailed table of recommended stocks, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.21 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 11.32 - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.56 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 16.38 - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) with an EPS forecast of 0.99 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 14.86 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction central enterprises sector, including China Railway, China Chemical, China Construction, and China Metallurgical [12][13][32]. Core Insights - The construction central enterprises are expected to see improved profitability driven by policy goals aimed at stabilizing investment. Order data shows a recovery in order growth starting from Q2 2025, with an anticipated narrowing of performance declines by Q4 2025 [1][16]. - The overall valuation of the nine major construction central enterprises is at historical lows, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 0.45 and a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 6.66, indicating strong safety margins [2][19]. - Institutional holdings in the construction sector are at low levels, suggesting a healthy chip structure and potential for recovery in key stocks [3][22]. Summary by Sections Order Growth and Performance - Cumulative order growth rates for construction central enterprises from Q1 to Q4 2025 are -2.0%, +0.2%, +1.3%, and +1.0%, respectively, indicating a recovery trend [1][16]. - The report anticipates that the performance decline of construction central enterprises will narrow in Q4 2025 due to improved order growth [1][16]. Valuation Metrics - As of January 30, 2026, the overall PB for the nine major construction central enterprises is 0.45, slightly above the historical low of 0.42, while the overall PE is 6.66, still below the historical median of 7.66 [2][19]. Institutional Holdings - As of Q4 2025, active funds hold 0.40% of the construction sector, while index funds hold 0.16%, leading to a combined holding of 0.28%, significantly lower than the 0.7%-1% range seen in 2021-2022 [3][22]. Catalysts for Growth - Several potential catalysts for the construction central enterprises include resource business revaluation for China Railway, chemical price rebounds for China Chemical, and increased investment in the power grid for China Electric Power and China Energy Construction [4][26]. - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to bring about fiscal policies that could further stimulate the sector [4][26]. Recommended Stocks - Key recommendations include: - China Railway (A/H): Benefiting from resource revaluation, with a combined value of 1,894 billion CNY for its resource and engineering segments, indicating a potential upside of 35% [5][27]. - China Chemical: Positioned to benefit from chemical price rebounds, with a current PB of 0.84, indicating a strong safety margin [9][28]. - China Construction: Expected to benefit from stabilizing real estate expectations, with a projected dividend yield of 5.5% [10][30]. - China Metallurgical: Anticipated to improve significantly post divestment of its loss-making real estate business, with a combined valuation potential of 794 billion CNY [11][31].