证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 10 28 年 月 日 华菱钢铁（000932.SZ） 季度业绩同比回升，后续有望持续高增 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季度报告。公司前三季度营业收入 945.98 亿元，同比 减少 14.96%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润 25.1 亿元，同比增长 41.72%；基本 每股收益 0.3644 元，同比增长 42.18%。 季度业绩同比回升，后续有望持续高增。公司 2025Q3 实现归母净利 7.62 亿元， 同比增长 73.22%，环比减少 35.8%，实现扣非归母净利 7.72 亿元，同比增长 134.06%，环比减少 27.95%；公司 2025Q3 业绩环比 Q2 回落，其原因一方面在 于公司三季度营业外支出显著增长，影响利润规模，另一方面，焦煤、铁矿等原料 三季度涨幅较大，阶段性压制利润实现。前三季度中钢协 CSPI 钢材价格指数均值 为 93.76，同比下降 9.19%，1-8 月份黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润总额 837 亿 元，去年同期利润总额为-169.7 亿元，公司前三季度业绩与行业盈利同步改善。 公司 2024Q4~202 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance with increased volume and cost reduction, leading to better-than-expected overall results. The growth in hydropower capacity is expected to drive future earnings growth [4][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 125.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.777 billion yuan, down 26.27%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 6.424 billion yuan, up 37.99%. The basic earnings per share were 0.38 yuan [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 47.551 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.09 billion yuan, an increase of 24.87% [1][2] Electricity Generation and Pricing - The company's electricity generation increased due to improved demand during peak seasons, with total generation reaching 349.241 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.68%. In Q3 2025, the generation was 143.215 billion kWh, up 7.57% year-on-year [2] - The average on-grid electricity price in Q3 was 376.36 yuan per thousand kWh, a decrease of 34.12 yuan compared to the previous year [2] Cost Management - The average price of coal decreased to 673 yuan per ton in Q3, down 180 yuan year-on-year, leading to a reduction in operating costs by 3.88% [2] - Significant reductions in sales and management expenses were noted, with decreases of 38.96% and 30.34% respectively [2] Growth Potential in New Energy - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a total installed capacity of 12,324.14 MW, with significant contributions from thermal, hydropower, wind, and solar energy. The company is expected to see new hydropower projects come online, contributing to future growth [3] - The company has plans for additional renewable energy capacity, with approvals for several projects expected to enhance its growth trajectory [3] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the national power sector, with a resilient business model supported by high dividend commitments. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 181.901 billion yuan, 187.893 billion yuan, and 194.669 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 7.581 billion yuan, 8.437 billion yuan, and 9.068 billion yuan [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in quarterly performance, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 36.45% and a net profit increase of 20.73% for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - High-end products are contributing significantly to revenue, with a 15.42% increase in sales for high-value products, which accounted for approximately 20% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company is expected to achieve substantial sales growth in 2025, with a target of approximately 190,000 tons of industrial finished steel pipes, reflecting a 23.7% increase compared to 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.747 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.262 billion yuan, with basic earnings per share of 1.33 yuan [1] - The quarterly net profit for 2025Q3 was 433 million yuan, showing an 8.29% year-on-year increase [1] - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 11.424 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.6% [4] Product Development - The revenue from high-value, high-tech products reached 1.22 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a significant growth in composite pipe products by 219.26% [2] - The company has ongoing projects that are expected to enhance production capacity, including a high-performance pipe project that will add 20,000 tons of capacity [3] Market Outlook - The company is focusing on high-end stainless steel pipe manufacturing, with an optimistic outlook for continued growth in production and sales driven by strong downstream demand [3] - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 1.73 billion yuan, 1.94 billion yuan, and 2.17 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 14.8 to 11.8 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady growth in net profit, with a 1.2% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 9.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The company's gross margin improved to 34.9%, and net profit margin increased to 17.2%, indicating enhanced profitability and effective cost control [1] - The company is focusing on a dual growth strategy of internal growth and external expansion, supported by a high dividend yield and low valuation, which provides a safety margin for investors [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 54.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, while the net profit was 9.3 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.2% [1] - The company reported a single-quarter revenue of 17.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 2.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.2 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1% [1] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 9.8 billion yuan, down 28.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in cash received from sales [1] Business Highlights - The company is enhancing its full-cycle water service system in the water supply business, focusing on customer satisfaction [2] - In the wastewater treatment sector, the company is leveraging opportunities in green development and exploring integrated operation models to improve urban environmental governance [2] - The gas energy business is actively expanding both installation and sales markets while exploring collaborations in new energy [2] - The solid waste disposal business is developing a comprehensive solution for "waste-free cities" by integrating water, environmental protection, and solid waste management [2] Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditures significantly decreased by 58.2% year-on-year to 6.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, allowing for sustained high dividends [3] - The company has a dividend payout ratio of around 50% for the years 2022-2024, with a current dividend yield of 5.1% [3] - The company plans to distribute at least 50% of its net profit in cash dividends over the next three years [3] Financial Projections - Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is projected at 12.6 billion yuan, 13.2 billion yuan, and 13.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.0, 1.0, and 1.1 yuan per share [3] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 9.3X, 8.9X, and 8.5X, indicating a favorable valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong revenue and profit growth in 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 30% and a net profit increase of 32% for the first three quarters [1] - The consumer goods segment, including cotton soft towels and adult apparel, has shown steady growth, while the sanitary napkin segment continues to perform exceptionally well [3] - The medical consumables business has experienced rapid revenue growth due to international expansion and changes in consolidation scope, with a 44% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters [4] - The company is expected to achieve significant net profit growth in 2025, driven by healthy growth in both consumer goods and medical consumables [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 to Q3 2025, the company reported revenues of 7.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 730 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 9.8% [1] - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved revenues of 2.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 240 million yuan, reflecting a net profit margin of 9.9% [2] - The gross profit margin for Q1 to Q3 2025 was 48.3%, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The medical consumables segment's revenue for Q1 to Q3 2025 was 3.83 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 44% [4] - The company expects net profits of 1.05 billion yuan in 2025, with projected growth rates of 51.3% for the following years [6]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 10 28 年 月 日 盐津铺子（002847.SZ） 收入符合预期，利润亮眼增长 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度实现营收 44.3 亿元，同比 +14.7%，归母净利润 6.0 亿元，同比+22.6%，扣非净利润 5.5 亿元，同 比+30.5%。25Q3 单季度营收 14.9 亿元，同比+6.0%，归母净利润 2.3 亿元，同比+33.5%，扣非净利润 2.2 亿元，同比+45.0%。 电商调整 Q3 收入降速，利润延续高增。25Q3 公司营收同比+6.0%至 14.9 亿元，环比 Q2 有所降速，我们预计与渠道变革之下，电商费率提升，公 司主动调整电商运营策略，形成一定拖累相关，过去盐津在每一轮渠道变 革机遇中均快速把握机会，当前叠加大魔王等大单品打造成熟，进一步牵 引定量流通等渠道布局。品类维度，盐津大魔王开创麻酱魔芋赛道，牵引 整体增长，同时公司储备虎皮鳕鱼豆腐、虎皮豆干等产品体系，后续复制 大魔王的打造路径，有望复刻更多大单品。25Q3 归母净利润同比+33.5% 至 2.3 亿元，延续亮眼高增，预计主要来自于大单品打磨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue growing by 9.9% year-on-year to 1.2 billion yuan and net profit increasing by 50.1% to 150 million yuan [1]. - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 5.8% to 3.39 billion yuan, with a notable improvement in gross margin and net profit margin [1]. - E-commerce and direct sales are expected to continue strong growth, while franchise sales may see a reduced decline [1][2]. - The company is focusing on cost control and high-margin product sales to enhance profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Q3 2025 revenue rose by 9.9% to 1.2 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 3.8 percentage points to 48.1% [1]. - Net profit for Q3 reached 150 million yuan, reflecting a 50.1% year-on-year growth [1]. Year-to-Date Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue grew by 5.8% to 3.39 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 30% to 340 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin improved by 2 percentage points to 47.9% [1]. Business Segments - E-commerce sales in H1 2025 grew by 18.32%, while direct sales increased by 5.14% [1]. - Franchise sales saw a decline of 8.65% in H1 2025, but the decline is expected to narrow in Q3 [1]. Financial Outlook - The company anticipates a 20.6% increase in net profit for the full year 2025, reaching 522 million yuan, driven by growth in e-commerce and direct sales [3]. - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 6.9% to 4.872 billion yuan [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 14 times, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 522 million, 593 million, and 664 million yuan respectively [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [6] Core Views - Anta Sports' Q3 performance showed slight growth in revenue for Anta and Fila brands, while other brands experienced a significant increase of 45% to 50% [1][2][3] - The overall performance aligns with expectations, despite a challenging domestic consumption environment [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its offline store structure and adjusting its e-commerce strategy, which may impact short-term sales [1][2] - The report forecasts a 10% revenue growth for the company in 2025, with a projected revenue of 78.181 billion yuan and a net profit of 13 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% increase from 2024 [3][5] Summary by Sections Anta Brand - Q3 revenue growth for the Anta brand was in the low single digits, indicating a healthy operational quality [1] - The company is adjusting its offline store strategy and enhancing its e-commerce framework, which may temporarily affect sales [1] Fila Brand - Fila's Q3 revenue also grew in the low single digits, impacted by high temperatures and fluctuating consumer demand [2] - The brand is expected to leverage the Q4 sales peak to drive growth, with a projected revenue increase in the mid-single digits for 2025 [2] Other Brands - Other brands under Anta experienced a robust revenue growth of 45% to 50%, with notable performance from Descente and Kolon [3] - Maia Active is also expected to show strong growth in Q3 [3] Financial Projections - The report estimates a 10% revenue growth for 2025, reaching 78.181 billion yuan, and a net profit of 13 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% increase from 2024 [3][5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 4.64 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 times [5][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The resumption of treasury bond trading by the central bank is a positive for the bond market, with the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields dropping by over 5bps, and other maturities also seeing significant declines [1][7]. - It is a routine operation. The suspension earlier this year was due to market supply - demand imbalance and risk accumulation, while the resumption indicates regulatory approval of the current bond market interest rate level, limiting the risk of further rate hikes [1][7]. - To maintain the scale of the central bank's treasury bond holdings, it is estimated that the central bank needs to buy between 0.7 - 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds this year [2][8]. - The central bank may choose one of three trading methods, with the first method (buying from large banks) being the most likely to control the impact on the bond market [3][12][13]. - The resumption of treasury bond trading may reduce the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut this year, but interest rate cuts are still necessary to promote financing growth [4][13]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market will be in a trend - based recovery. A dumbbell strategy is recommended, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to recover to around 1.65% [4][14]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Reasons for Resuming Treasury Bond Trading - It is a routine operation to implement the deployment of the Central Financial Work Conference, enhancing the synergy between monetary and fiscal policies and ensuring smooth policy transmission and market stability [1][7]. - The suspension earlier this year was due to large supply - demand imbalance and accumulated market risks in the bond market, while the resumption is because the bond market is running well [1][7]. - To maintain the scale of the central bank's treasury bond holdings. Last year, the central bank bought 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, and the scale has decreased from 2.88 trillion yuan in December 2024 to 2.22 trillion yuan in September this year. It is estimated that 0.7 - 1 trillion yuan needs to be bought this year [2][8]. Possible Trading Methods - The central bank buys from large banks at once or multiple times, and large banks do not immediately buy from the market. This is more of a short - term fund injection, with a limited impact on bond market supply - demand, and a gradual and controllable positive impact later [2][12]. - The central bank gradually entrusts large banks to buy from the market, focusing on the short - end. Considering last year's experience where short - term rates dropped sharply, the possibility of this method is low [3][12]. - The central bank entrusts large banks to buy across the curve, which will lead to a decline in the overall interest rate center, benefiting the long - end more [3][12]. Impact on Monetary Policy and the Bond Market - The resumption of treasury bond trading may reduce the need for a reserve requirement ratio cut this year, but interest rate cuts are still necessary to lower real interest rates and promote financing, especially before the peak financing season next year [4][13]. - Treasury bond trading is more beneficial to the short - end, and the central bank's signal will improve market sentiment, driving down long - term yields. In the fourth quarter, the bond market will recover, and a dumbbell strategy is recommended [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Rongxin Culture (301231.SZ) [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant year-on-year improvement in performance, with a revenue of 252 million yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a 27.83% increase year-on-year. However, it reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 5.09 million yuan, which is an increase of 79.61% year-on-year [1] - The company is expanding its AI product matrix and has launched various initiatives to enhance its children's book offerings, including collaborations and acquisitions to strengthen its market position [1][2] - The company is focusing on digital transformation and has introduced new AI-driven services to create a comprehensive reading ecosystem for children [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 71.44 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.49%. The net loss attributable to shareholders was 7.26 million yuan, up 42.98% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin improved by 2.52 percentage points to 38.62% in Q3 2025. The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreased by 3.86, 3.50, and increased by 0.15 percentage points respectively [2] Market Position and Strategy - The children's book retail market saw a slight increase in market share for Rongxin Culture, with a 28.09% share in Q1-Q3 2025, up 0.27 percentage points year-on-year. The company is implementing a closed-loop marketing strategy to enhance its product offerings [1] - The company has launched the "AI Lele" and "Shanshan" intelligent agents, along with various AI products to strengthen its competitive edge in the children's education content ecosystem [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 0.14 billion yuan, 0.38 billion yuan, and 0.59 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 132.1%, 167.4%, and 54.2% [3]