Group 1: Policy Implementation - Various departments are refining their implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit, focusing on "stability while seeking progress" and "quality improvement" as the main themes[3] - Emphasis on accelerating the disbursement of funds and implementing major projects ahead of schedule to ensure a strong start in 2026[2] - The central government plans to maintain a necessary fiscal deficit and debt scale, with the overall fiscal deficit expected to be similar to that of 2025[4] Group 2: Economic Growth Strategies - Aiming to cultivate new consumption growth points worth trillions, with increased investment in consumer infrastructure and social welfare projects[6] - The government is focusing on expanding domestic demand, supporting "two new" and "two heavy" projects, and implementing the "15th Five-Year Plan" major projects[6] - The central bank may consider lowering reserve requirements and interest rates in the first quarter of 2026 to stimulate economic activity[2] Group 3: Risk Management and Market Stability - A commitment to prevent financial risks, ensuring that no major defaults occur, particularly in the real estate sector[10] - The government is taking measures to stabilize the real estate market while balancing the needs of residents and property companies[10] - Continuous efforts to promote the stock market narrative and attract long-term investments, including reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and commercial real estate REITs pilot programs[10]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The company has a clear new growth curve, transitioning from traditional smart kitchen and bathroom products to the beauty and health sector, as well as robotics [4]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in the beauty and health segment, with a projected income of 3.59 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.4% [2]. - The company is expanding its capabilities in the robotics field, particularly in care and logistics robots, which have received recognition from elder care institutions [3]. Summary by Sections Smart Kitchen and Bathroom Origin - The company started with smart kitchen and bathroom products, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas markets, accounting for 75.1% of total revenue in 2024 [1][21]. - The company is set to enhance its production capacity with the launch of its Vietnam base, which is expected to significantly improve overseas order fulfillment [1]. High-Gross Margin Beauty and Health Products - The beauty and health product segment has a gross margin of 49.18% in 2024, which is over 15 percentage points higher than traditional smart kitchen products [2][42]. - The company is focusing on developing high-value beauty and health products, which are expected to drive overall profit margin improvements [2]. Robotics Development - The company has established a subsidiary focused on robotics, aiming to develop care and logistics robots, with initial contracts already signed for significant orders [3][49]. - The robotics division is leveraging the company's existing strengths in engineering and design to create a comprehensive product ecosystem [45][51]. Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.13 billion yuan, 4.04 billion yuan, and 5.36 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of -52.4%, +89.9%, and +32.8% respectively [4][58]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings will recover post-2025 as the Vietnam base becomes fully operational, leading to improved sales and profitability [53][54].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 24 年 月 日 宏观点评 剔除噪音后依然良好——美国三季度 GDP 点评 2、GDP 公布后，资产价格涨跌互现，美联储降息预期小幅下调。 >大类资产表现：GDP 公布后，主要资产涨跌互现。截至 12/24 收盘，标 普 500、纳斯达克、道琼斯指数分别上涨 0.5%、0.6%、0.2%，10Y 美债 收益率小幅上行 0.2bp 至 4.16%，美元指数下跌 0.4%至 97.9，现货黄金 上涨 0.9%至 4484.9 美元/盎司。 >降息预期变化：GDP 公布后，美联储降息预期小幅下调。利率期货隐含 的 1 月降息概率从 20%降至 13%，2026 全年降息次数从 2.3 次降至 2.1 次，即仍是大概率仅降息 2 次。 3、继续提示：2026 年美国经济大概率弱复苏，关注年初降息博弈。 >美国经济展望：在年度报告《弱复苏与再平衡——2026 年海外宏观展望》 中我们曾指出，2026 年美国经济在"资产负债表修复+宽货币+宽财政+AI 投资浪潮"的支撑下有望迎来复苏，但"利率仍高+关税影响+难以共振" 导致复苏动能偏弱。此外，四季度受 ...

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products have been implemented, which is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution in deep processing of dairy products. The measures include temporary anti-subsidy deposits on EU dairy imports starting December 23, 2025 [3] - From 2020 to March 2024, EU dairy product imports accounted for 23.6% to 34.6% of China's total dairy imports. The imposition of anti-subsidy taxes is likely to drive the deep processing business to shift domestically [3] - Domestic dairy companies such as Miao Ke Lan Duo, Yili, Mengniu, and Li Gao are focusing on deep processing, with current domestic milk prices being lower than overseas prices, which may further accelerate domestic substitution [3] - The deep processing sector is expected to enhance the consumption of raw milk, thereby improving the supply-demand dynamics in the upstream raw milk industry [3] Group 2: Electronics Industry - Lingyi Technology (002600.SZ) plans to acquire a 35% stake in Limin Da for 875 million RMB, gaining control over 52.78% of voting rights. This acquisition will integrate Limin Da into the company's consolidated financial statements [5] - Limin Da specializes in thermal management solutions for enterprise-level servers, providing key hardware products such as liquid cooling connectors and modules. The company has established a strong customer base, including leading clients in the overseas computing industry [5] - For the first nine months of 2025, Limin Da reported revenues of 486 million RMB and a net profit of 21 million RMB, showing significant improvement in profitability compared to the previous year [5] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the server liquid cooling business, reduce development costs, and improve product validation cycles, thereby expanding the scale and profitability of the AI hardware server segment [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products are expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the dairy processing sector, with temporary anti-subsidy deposits imposed on EU dairy imports starting December 23, 2025, at rates between 21.9% and 42.7% [1][2] - The share of EU dairy products in China's total dairy imports has been significant, ranging from 23.6% to 34.6% from 2020 to March 2024, indicating a substantial market impact [2] - Domestic dairy companies such as Miao Ke Lan Duo, Yili, Mengniu, and Li Gao are actively expanding their deep processing capabilities, which is expected to enhance demand for raw milk and improve the supply-demand balance in the upstream raw milk industry [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the implementation of temporary anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy imports, which is anticipated to shift processing activities back to domestic producers [1][2] Market Dynamics - The deep processing of dairy products is projected to increase raw milk consumption, driven by expanding demand from new consumption scenarios such as milk tea [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong potential in deep processing and raw milk supply-demand balance, specifically recommending Miao Ke Lan Duo, Yili, Mengniu, Li Gao for deep processing, and You Ran Mu Ye, Modern Dairy, and China Shengmu for upstream dairy farming [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales for FY2026Q3, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [1] - The retail environment remains volatile, with pressures from store closures and competition affecting offline sales [1] - E-commerce sales are expected to continue growing due to the company's strong operational capabilities and enhanced digital marketing strategies [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its brand portfolio in the outdoor and running segments, collaborating with various brands to meet diverse consumer needs [2] - The overall revenue is projected to decline by 7% and net profit by approximately 4% for FY2026, influenced by the current consumer environment and inventory management [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for FY2026 is estimated at 25,062 million, a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year [4] - Net profit for FY2026 is projected at 1,229 million, down 4.4% year-on-year [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is expected to be 0.20 [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for FY2026 is estimated at 14.3 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.6% for FY2026 [12]

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 12 22 年 月 日 投资策略 跨年行情的复盘与展望 一、策略专题：跨年行情的复盘与展望 回顾过去 10 年出现过的跨年行情，指数层面主要有以下结论： （1）跨年行情并非确定性事件，过去 10 年共出现过 5 次跨年行情，出现 概率仅 50%。 （2）宏观经济情况大概率不影响跨年行情的出现，历史上 5 次跨年行情 中，有 2 次处于宏观经济较好的阶段（2018 年、2021 年），而 3 次则处 于基本面偏弱的阶段（2019 年、2020 年、2023 年）。 （3）流动性宽松与叙事积极变化可能是跨年行情的重要条件：5 次中有 3 次都处于宏观流动性宽松阶段，包括 2019 年、2023 年的央行全面降准与 2020 年的海外美联储降息，此外 2021 年也明确政策操作"不急转弯"； 5 次中有 4 次都出现了重要的叙事变化，2019 年、2020 年处于中美经贸 关系的改善阶段，2021 年拜登当选美国总统，同样指向中美经贸关系恶 化风险的减弱，2023 年防疫政策的逐渐优化提振了国内经济增长信心； 此外，股市流动性也形成助力，2021 年公 ...

Group 1: Market Overview and Strategy - The report discusses the review and outlook of the cross-year market, highlighting that the A-share market saw a significant rise driven by technology stocks, while macro policies entered a "window period" [3] - Global equity markets showed mixed performance, with the Vietnamese stock market leading the gains [3] - Commodity prices mostly declined, and the interest rate differential between China and the US narrowed [3] Group 2: Convertible Bonds - The valuation of convertible bonds remains at historical highs, with a pricing deviation indicator of 8.12%, indicating low long-term allocation value for convertible bonds since July [4] - The report suggests reducing positions in equity-oriented convertible bonds to mitigate potential market downturn risks, while maintaining current allocations in debt-oriented strategies [4] Group 3: Fixed Income and Food Prices - The basic frequency index for food prices increased to 129.2 points, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2 points, indicating a stable growth trend [5] - Industrial production frequency index remained unchanged at 127.7, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0 points [6] Group 4: Blockchain and Deposit Tokens - The "Genius Act" has prompted concerns from the American Bankers Association regarding the potential threat to the existing financial system posed by tokens linked to fiat currency, which could lead to significant deposit outflows from banks [7] - JPMorgan Chase introduced a deposit token, JPMD, which combines features of cryptocurrency with traditional bank deposits, aiming to balance liquidity management and token business [9] Group 5: Environmental and Industrial Insights - The report emphasizes the need for a comprehensive governance system for solid waste management, driven by recent government policies aimed at promoting a circular economy [12] - The Australian energy market operator predicts that coal power capacity needs to double by 2050 to meet electricity demand, highlighting a significant gap that renewable energy cannot fill in the short term [13] Group 6: Non-Banking Financial Sector - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from the trend of bank deposits moving, with a positive outlook for 2026's liability performance due to product rate adjustments [16] - The securities market is experiencing high trading activity, benefiting from increased risk appetite and market valuation [16] Group 7: Company-Specific Insights - Qing Song Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.553 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with a significant recovery in profitability [18] - Fenbi's strategic partnership with Huatu is expected to enhance market share and improve profitability, with projected revenues of 2.67 billion yuan in 2025 [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on a PE of 26 times for 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery in performance, with revenue and profit improving significantly after a four-year adjustment period from 2021 to 2024. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.553 billion yuan (up 12.0% year-on-year), and net profit attributable to the parent company reached 111 million yuan (up 247.0% year-on-year) [1][12]. - The core business of face masks has seen a significant rebound in growth, driving overall performance. In the first half of 2025, the revenue from face masks was 450 million yuan (up 21% year-on-year), contributing to the company's growth [2][18]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 19.2% (up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year), and the net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 4.9% [1][12]. - The company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow, reaching 139 million yuan (up 50.1% year-on-year) for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong operational health [1][12]. - The company forecasts revenues of 2.172 billion yuan, 2.439 billion yuan, and 2.681 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.0%, 12.3%, and 9.9% [3][27]. Business Segment Performance - The face mask segment is the primary driver of growth, with a notable increase in revenue and improvement in gross margins. The gross margins for face masks, skincare, and wet wipes were 19.0%, 16.7%, and 13.5%, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [2][25]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a significant improvement in the net profit margin, which reached 8.0% in Q3 2025, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [1][16].

- The report introduces the **CCBA pricing deviation model** to evaluate the valuation level of convertible bonds. The pricing deviation is calculated as: $ Pricing\ Deviation = \frac{Convertible\ Bond\ Price}{CCBA\ Model\ Price} - 1 $ This model highlights that the current pricing deviation of the convertible bond market is 8.12%, which is at the 99.6% and 99.3% percentiles compared to 2018 and 2021 levels, respectively. The model suggests that the market is in a "high valuation, low odds" state, reducing the long-term allocation value of convertible bonds[6][11][23] - The **Convertible Bond & Stock-Bond Rotation Strategy** is constructed based on the CCBA pricing deviation. The Z-score is calculated as: $ Z = \frac{Pricing\ Deviation}{Standard\ Deviation\ of\ Past\ 3\ Years} $ The Z-score is truncated at ±1.5 standard deviations and normalized to a score. Convertible bond weight is determined as: $ Convertible\ Bond\ Weight = 50\% + 50\% \times Score $ The remaining allocation is assigned to a stock-bond portfolio (50% 7-10Y Treasury + 50% CSI 1000 Total Return Index). This strategy achieves stable excess returns by overweighting convertible bonds during undervaluation and vice versa[11][17][23] - The **Low Valuation Strategy** uses the CCBA_out model, which incorporates delisting risk into the CCBA pricing model. The pricing deviation is calculated as: $ Pricing\ Deviation = \frac{Convertible\ Bond\ Price}{CCBA\_out\ Model\ Price} - 1 $ The strategy selects the 15 convertible bonds with the lowest deviation in each of the three domains (biased debt, balanced, biased equity), forming a pool of 45 bonds. Bonds must have a balance of over 3 billion and a rating of AA- or above. The strategy achieves an absolute return of 20.5% and an excess return of 9.7% since 2018[23][25][26] - The **Low Valuation + Strong Momentum Strategy** combines the CCBA_out pricing deviation factor with the stock momentum factor. The stock momentum factor is constructed using equal-weighted scores of stock returns over the past 1, 3, and 6 months. This strategy achieves an absolute return of 24.3% and an excess return of 13.1% since 2018, with strong elasticity[26][28][29] - The **Low Valuation + High Turnover Strategy** selects the lowest 50% valuation convertible bonds based on the CCBA_out pricing deviation. Within this pool, convertible bonds with high turnover rates are chosen using turnover factors (5-day and 21-day turnover rates). This strategy achieves an absolute return of 23.2% and an excess return of 12.1% since 2018[29][31][32] - The **Balanced Biased Debt Enhanced Strategy** selects the lowest 50% valuation convertible bonds based on the CCBA_out pricing deviation. Biased debt bonds are further filtered using turnover rate and stock momentum factors, while balanced bonds are filtered using turnover rate factors. This strategy achieves an annualized absolute return of 22.3%, with volatility and drawdown controlled at 7.6% and 4.5%, respectively[32][34][35] - The **Credit Bond Substitution Strategy** filters convertible bonds with YTM+1% greater than the YTM of 3-year AA-rated credit bonds. Convertible bonds must have a balance of over 3 billion and a rating of AA- or above. Within this pool, the top 20 bonds with the strongest 1-month stock momentum are selected, with individual bond weights capped at 2%. Remaining allocation is assigned to credit bonds. This strategy achieves an absolute return of 7.1%, with volatility and drawdown below 3%[35][36][37] - The **Volatility Control Strategy** combines enhanced strategies for biased debt, balanced, and biased equity convertible bonds, along with credit bonds. The portfolio volatility is controlled at 4% using a volatility control method. This strategy achieves an absolute return of 9.4%, with volatility and drawdown controlled at 4%-5%[37][39][41] - **Performance Metrics** for the strategies: - **Low Valuation Strategy**: Annualized return of 20.5%, excess return of 9.7%, IR of 1.64[26] - **Low Valuation + Strong Momentum Strategy**: Annualized return of 24.3%, excess return of 13.1%, IR of 2.25[29] - **Low Valuation + High Turnover Strategy**: Annualized return of 23.2%, excess return of 12.1%, IR of 1.95[32] - **Balanced Biased Debt Enhanced Strategy**: Annualized return of 22.3%, volatility of 12.1%, drawdown of 13.9%[35] - **Credit Bond Substitution Strategy**: Annualized return of 7.1%, volatility of 2.1%, drawdown of 2.8%[37] - **Volatility Control Strategy**: Annualized return of 9.4%, volatility of 4.4%, drawdown of 4.4%[41]