Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The maturity scale of long-term deposits for residents and enterprises in 2026 is estimated at CNY 58.3 trillion, an increase of CNY 5.6 trillion compared to 2025[1] - Among this, the maturity scale for the resident sector is CNY 37.9 trillion, up CNY 4.3 trillion from 2025, marking the highest level in five years[3] - In 2026, 54% of the total deposits will mature in the first quarter, with over 60% of resident deposits maturing in the same period[5] Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The re-pricing of maturing deposits is expected to reduce banks' liability costs by approximately CNY 550 billion, leading to a 31 basis point decrease in interest rates paid by banks[6] - However, the potential "deposit migration" could disrupt the stability of banks' liabilities, necessitating close monitoring of the reallocation of deposits[6] Group 3: Asset Market Implications - The large-scale maturity of deposits is likely to bring incremental funds to the equity market, potentially benefiting the stock market, especially during the first quarter[7] - The impact on the bond market remains uncertain, as the actual allocation of funds will depend on the speed of credit decline and the relative speed of deposit outflows[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [10]. Core Insights - The coal production in December 2025 saw a slight year-on-year decrease of 1%, with a total output of 440 million tons. The annual output for 2025 was 4.83 billion tons, reflecting a 1.2% increase compared to the previous year. For 2026, the domestic thermal coal production is expected to increase by only 20-30 million tons to 3.85 billion tons, representing a growth of approximately 0.6% [1][13]. - Coal imports in December 2025 increased by 11.94% year-on-year, totaling 58.597 million tons. However, the total imports for the year were 49.027 million tons, a decline of 9.6% compared to 2024. The report anticipates stable coal import levels in 2026, with significant attention on potential changes from the U.S. and Indonesia [2][17][18]. - The report highlights a 3.2% year-on-year decrease in thermal power generation in December 2025, with total industrial power generation for the year increasing by 2.2%. The decline in thermal power generation is contrasted with growth in renewable energy sources, although their growth rates have slowed [3][21]. Summary by Sections Production - December coal production decreased by 1% year-on-year, with a total of 440 million tons produced. The daily average production was 14.1 million tons, and the total for 2025 was 4.83 billion tons, up 1.2% from 2024. The report predicts strict policies will continue into 2026, limiting production increases primarily to new mines [1][13]. Imports - December coal imports rose by 11.94% year-on-year to 58.597 million tons, with a monthly increase of 33.01% from November. The total imports for 2025 were 49.027 million tons, down 9.6% from the previous year. The report expects stable import levels in 2026, with a focus on U.S. and Indonesian market dynamics [2][17][18]. Demand - December thermal power generation fell by 3.2% year-on-year, while total industrial power generation saw a slight increase of 0.1%. The report notes that while thermal power generation declined, renewable energy sources experienced growth, albeit at a slower pace [3][21].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electricity sector, with a projected growth rate of 5% in total electricity consumption for 2025 [8][10]. Core Insights - Total electricity consumption in 2025 is expected to reach 103,682 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5% [8][10]. - In December, total electricity consumption was 9,080 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.77% [8]. - The contribution of the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity consumption to the growth of total electricity consumption is projected to reach 50% in 2025 [10]. - The electricity consumption growth rates for different sectors in 2025 are as follows: primary industry at 1,494 billion kWh (9.9% growth), secondary industry at 66,366 billion kWh (3.7% growth), tertiary industry at 19,942 billion kWh (8.2% growth), and urban-rural residential consumption at 15,880 billion kWh (6.3% growth) [10]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The demand for electricity is driven significantly by the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential sectors, with notable growth in the charging and battery swapping services, as well as information transmission, software, and IT services, which grew by 48.8% and 17.0% respectively [10][13]. Supply Side - In December, the decline in thermal power generation narrowed, while the growth rates of other power sources slowed down. The total industrial power generation in December was 8,586 billion kWh, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [27]. - The year-on-year decline in industrial thermal power was 3.2%, which is a narrowing of 1.0 percentage points compared to November. Other power sources such as hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar also experienced slowed growth rates [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal power leaders and companies with stable electricity prices and coal-electricity integration, such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, Guodian Power, Datang Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Shaanxi Energy [49]. - It also suggests paying attention to wind and solar sectors, including Xintian Green Energy, Longyuan Power, and Zhongmin Energy. For gas sectors, it highlights quality leaders like Chengran, New Hope Energy, Kunlun Energy, and China Resources Gas [49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [10][36]. Core Insights - The coal production in December 2025 saw a slight year-on-year decline of 1%, with a total output of 440 million tons. The annual production for 2025 was 4.83 billion tons, reflecting a growth of 1.2% compared to the previous year. For 2026, the domestic thermal coal production is expected to increase by only 20-30 million tons, reaching 3.85 billion tons, which is a growth of approximately 0.6% [1][13]. - Coal imports in December 2025 increased by 11.94% year-on-year, totaling 58.597 million tons. However, the total imports for the year were 49.027 million tons, a decrease of 9.6% compared to 2024. The report anticipates stable coal import levels in 2026, with significant attention on potential changes from the U.S. and Indonesia [2][17][21]. - The report highlights a 3.2% year-on-year decline in thermal power generation in December 2025, with total industrial power generation showing a marginal increase of 0.1%. The overall industrial power generation for the year was 971.59 billion kWh, up 2.2% from 2024 [3][22]. Summary by Sections Production - December coal production decreased by 1% year-on-year, with a total of 440 million tons produced. The daily average production was 14.1 million tons, and the total for 2025 was 4.83 billion tons, up 1.2% [1][13][14]. Imports - December coal imports rose by 11.94% year-on-year, amounting to 58.597 million tons. The total imports for 2025 were 49.027 million tons, down 9.6% from the previous year. The report expects stable import levels in 2026, with a focus on U.S. and Indonesian market dynamics [2][17][21]. Demand - Thermal power generation in December 2025 fell by 3.2% year-on-year, while total industrial power generation increased slightly by 0.1%. The total for the year was 971.59 billion kWh, reflecting a 2.2% increase from 2024 [3][22].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the power industry, with an investment rating of "Buy" for companies with high dividend yields and stable electricity prices, as well as for integrated coal and electricity enterprises [3][49]. Core Insights - The total electricity consumption in 2025 is projected to grow by 5.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative electricity consumption of 10,368.2 billion kWh from January to December, and a December consumption of 908 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.77% [8][10]. - The contribution of the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity consumption to the growth of total electricity consumption is expected to reach 50%, driven significantly by the charging and swapping service industry, as well as the information transmission, software, and IT service sectors [10][13]. - In December, the decline in thermal power generation narrowed, while the growth rates of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power all slowed down. The industrial thermal power generation decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, but the decline was less than in November [2][34]. Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In 2025, the first industry is expected to consume 149.4 billion kWh, growing by 9.9% year-on-year; the second industry is projected to consume 6,636.6 billion kWh, with a growth of 3.7%; the third industry is anticipated to consume 1,994.2 billion kWh, growing by 8.2%; and urban-rural residential electricity consumption is expected to reach 158.8 billion kWh, increasing by 6.3% [10][8]. - The charging and swapping service industry and the information transmission, software, and IT service sectors are expected to see electricity consumption growth rates of 48.8% and 17.0%, respectively, contributing significantly to the growth of the tertiary industry [10][13]. Power Generation - In December, the total industrial power generation was 858.6 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, and an average daily generation of 27.7 billion kWh. For the entire year, the total industrial power generation reached 9,715.9 billion kWh, reflecting a growth of 2.2% [2][27]. - The growth rates for various power generation types in December were as follows: hydropower increased by 4.1%, nuclear power by 3.1%, wind power by 8.9%, and solar power by 18.2%, all showing a slowdown compared to November [34][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading thermal power companies with high dividend yields and stable electricity prices, such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, Guodian Power, Datang Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Shaanxi Energy. It also suggests looking at companies involved in flexible thermal power transformation and the wind and solar sectors [3][49].

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The core viewpoint indicates that the 2025 economic target of "maintaining 5%" was achieved with some challenges, showing a pattern of high performance early in the year followed by a decline later on. The structure revealed strong supply but weak demand, with external demand outpacing internal demand [3] - Key highlights include a continuous strong export performance, a rebound in CPI and PPI since the third quarter, and a significant drop in consumption and investment in the second half of the year, which was unexpected [3] - December data showed a strong export performance, but most economic indicators remained weak, particularly in consumption and investment, with consumer growth declining for seven consecutive months and fixed asset investment showing negative growth for four months [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Insights - The economic structure is differentiated across asset classes, with investment and consumption weaknesses being prominent. New economy sectors are expected to receive support, while traditional sectors may see a decline in financing demand, impacting bond yields [5] - The bond market is currently facing multiple pressures, including a strong stock market and rising supply, but the relative value of bonds has improved, making them more attractive compared to loans [6] Group 3: Sector Performance - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from a rising trend in both liability and asset sides, with a positive outlook for the insurance sector due to favorable market conditions and active capital markets [9] - The steel industry is experiencing a decline in demand, with a significant drop in apparent consumption in December, indicating a potential mismatch in production statistics [10] - The electronics sector, particularly companies like Shenghong Technology, is projected to see substantial profit growth driven by capacity expansion and new product launches, with expected net profits for 2025 ranging from 4.16 to 4.56 billion yuan [14][15] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - Weisheng Information is positioned to benefit from optimistic investment expectations in the national grid and the global AIDC trend, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 720 million, 870 million, and 1.05 billion yuan respectively [12][13] - Chaoyun Group's acquisition of Hebei Kangda is expected to enhance its market position in the northern home care market, with projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 1.996 billion, 2.397 billion, and 2.611 billion yuan respectively [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company's parent, Weisheng Holdings, has shown strong stock performance, driven by optimistic expectations for China's "14th Five-Year Plan" investments in the State Grid, projected to reach CNY 4 trillion, and a global AIDC wave that is leading to a revaluation of Weisheng as a scarce asset in energy management [1]. - The transition from power IoT to AIDC energy digitalization is highlighted, emphasizing the high demands for power quality and collaborative computing in AIDC, where distribution equipment acts as the "muscle" and perception and control serve as the "brain" [1]. - The company is expected to leverage its natural advantages in the intelligentization process of AIDC energy systems, with growth boundaries likely to continue expanding [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: CNY 2,225 million in 2023, CNY 2,745 million in 2024, CNY 3,101 million in 2025, CNY 3,718 million in 2026, and CNY 4,582 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.1%, 23.3%, 13.0%, 19.9%, and 23.2% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be CNY 525 million in 2023, CNY 631 million in 2024, CNY 724 million in 2025, CNY 865 million in 2026, and CNY 1,046 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.3%, 20.1%, 14.8%, 19.6%, and 20.8% respectively [5]. - The report indicates that the current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 28, 24, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. Business Strategy - The company is positioned to benefit from group synergies, overseas expansion, and the migration of existing capabilities into new business areas, which collectively enhance growth certainty [2]. - The company has established a significant presence in overseas markets, with 19% of revenue coming from international operations in the first three quarters of 2025, and has developed local operations in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia [9]. - The report discusses the potential for the company to expand into power supply business areas, leveraging its long-term understanding of supply architecture and control logic in low and medium voltage distribution [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key steel companies, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance in the coming months [10]. Core Insights - The steel industry has experienced a fluctuating demand pattern, with a peak in early 2025 followed by a decline, leading to an increase in the material-to-steel ratio, which reached 1.69 in December [2]. - China's apparent steel consumption grew by 2.9% year-on-year in 2025, although December saw a 5.0% decline compared to the previous year [2]. - The net export of steel in 2025 reached 11.296 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, driven by strong exports in the automotive and home appliance sectors [3]. - The report highlights a shift in economic drivers from investment to consumption, with fixed asset investment declining by 3.8% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 3.7% [2]. Summary by Sections Steel Production and Consumption - In December 2025, crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a 10.3% year-on-year decrease, with an annual total of 960.81 million tons, down 4.4% [6]. - Steel production in December was 115.31 million tons, a 3.8% year-on-year decrease, while the annual total was 1,446.12 million tons, up 3.1% [6]. Export and Import Dynamics - December steel exports were 11.30 million tons, up 16.2% year-on-year, with total exports for the year at 11.902 million tons, a 7.5% increase [6]. - Steel imports in December were 520,000 tons, down 16.3% year-on-year, with total imports for the year at 6.06 million tons, down 11.1% [6]. Economic Context and Policy Implications - The report notes that the Chinese economy is transitioning to a more stable phase, with GDP growth projected at 5% for 2025, reflecting a pattern of high demand followed by a decline [2]. - Recent structural interest rate cuts by the central bank are expected to support credit flow to specific industries, indicating a potential for economic stabilization [8]. - The valuation of the steel sector has improved, moving from absolute undervaluation to a moderately low position, suggesting room for further gains [8]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks, including: - Hualing Steel (华菱钢铁) [10] - Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) [10] - Baosteel (宝钢股份) [10] - New Steel (新钢股份) [10] - Jiuli Special Materials (久立特材) [10] - Yongjin Co., Ltd. (甬金股份) [10] - Changbao Steel (常宝股份) [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Guosheng Fundamental High-Frequency Index is stable, with a current value of 129.5 points (previous value: 129.4 points), and a week-on-week increase of 6.1 points. The long-short signal factor for interest rate bonds is 3.2% (previous value: 3.1%) [1][9]. - Industrial production maintains stable growth, with the industrial production high-frequency index at 128.0, and a week-on-week increase of 4.8 points, the same as the previous period [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the decline in the high-frequency index of commercial housing sales has widened, the growth rate of the high-frequency index of infrastructure investment has narrowed, the decline in the high-frequency index of exports has expanded, and the growth rate of the high-frequency index of consumption remains unchanged [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month-on-month forecast of CPI is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%); the month-on-month forecast of PPI is -0.1% (previous value: -0.1%) [1][9]. - The high-frequency index of inventory, transportation, and financing has increased, with the growth rate expanding [2][10]. Summary by Directory Total Index - The Guosheng Fundamental High-Frequency Index is stable, with a current value of 129.5 points (previous value: 129.4 points), and a week-on-week increase of 6.1 points. The long-short signal factor for interest rate bonds is 3.2% (previous value: 3.1%) [1][9] Production - The electric furnace operating rate has increased to 63.5% (previous value: 61.9%); the polyester operating rate is 87.2% (previous value: 87.5%); the semi-steel tire operating rate is 73.4% (previous value: 65.9%); the all-steel tire operating rate is 62.9% (previous value: 58.0%); the PX operating rate is 90.5% (previous value: 89.1%) [16] Real Estate Sales - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has slightly increased, reaching 18.5 million square meters (previous value: 16.9 million square meters); the land premium rate of 100 large and medium-sized cities is 1.4% (previous value: 0.4%) [29] Infrastructure Investment - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt has slightly increased to 27.2% (previous value: 25.4%) [42] Exports - The RJ/CRB index has increased to 304.3 points (previous value: 301.8 points) [45] Consumption - The average daily movie box office has decreased to 45.777 million yuan (previous value: 53.561 million yuan) [54] CPI - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.0 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.9 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 5.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.6 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white-striped chickens is 17.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.7 yuan/kg) [61] PPI - The ex - warehouse price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port (produced in Shanxi) is 699.6 yuan/ton (previous value: 690.7 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 64.8 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 61.6 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 13,232.0 US dollars/ton (previous value: 13,048.7 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 3,184.3 US dollars/ton (previous value: 3,093.7 US dollars/ton) [65] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in first-tier cities is 39.161 million person - times (previous value: 40.448 million person - times); the road logistics freight rate index is 1052.3 points (previous value: 1051.9 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,736.9 (previous value: 12,494.3) [79] Inventory - The soda ash inventory has slightly increased to 1.57 million tons (previous value: 1.541 million tons) [90] Financing - The net financing of local government bonds is 65.57 billion yuan (previous value: 117.66 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 39.99 billion yuan (previous value: 131.04 billion yuan) [101]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Xining Steel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Baosteel, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance in the coming months [10]. Core Insights - The steel industry has experienced a fluctuating demand pattern, with a peak in early 2025 followed by a decline. The material-to-steel ratio has reached a new high of 1.69 in December, with an annual average of 1.51, suggesting a shift in consumption patterns [2]. - China's apparent steel consumption increased by 2.9% year-on-year in 2025, although December saw a decline of 5.0% compared to the previous year. The economic growth rate is projected to be 5% for 2025, with a quarterly breakdown showing a decreasing trend [2]. - The net export of steel reached 11.296 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, driven by strong demand in the automotive and home appliance sectors. Exports to ASEAN countries have significantly increased, despite a decline in exports to the U.S. [3]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In December 2025, crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 10.3% year-on-year, while the total for the year was 960.81 million tons, down 4.4%. Steel production in December was 115.31 million tons, down 3.8% year-on-year, with an annual total of 1,446.12 million tons, up 3.1% [6]. - The apparent consumption of steel in China is expected to be more accurately estimated by using steel production growth rates instead of crude steel production growth rates [2]. Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment in 2025 is projected to be 48.5186 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous year, while retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7% [2]. - The report highlights a transition from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth as China's economy matures [2]. Market Outlook - The recent structural interest rate cuts by the central bank are expected to support credit growth in specific sectors, indicating a potential for economic stabilization. The steel sector's valuation has improved, moving from absolute undervaluation to a moderately low position, suggesting room for further gains [8]. - Recommended stocks include Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and others, which are expected to benefit from various economic cycles and trends [8].