Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key stocks in the building materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Puxin Co., San Ke Tree, and Bei Xin Materials [9][10]. Core Insights - The building materials sector has experienced a decline of 1.90% from December 8 to December 12, 2025, with specific declines in cement (1.21%), glass manufacturing (1.99%), fiberglass manufacturing (2.32%), and renovation materials (2.27%) [1][14]. - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, and reforming the housing provident fund system [1]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in municipal engineering projects due to improved government debt management, which may accelerate the implementation of municipal pipeline and seismic isolation projects [1]. - The report suggests that the demand for cement is still bottoming out, with companies increasing production cuts, and prices fluctuating around the breakeven point [1][19]. - The fiberglass market is showing signs of recovery, with prices stabilizing after a price war, and demand for wind power and electronic yarns is expected to grow [1][7]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of December 12, 2025, the national cement price index is 352.22 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.07% from the previous week [2][19]. - The cement output for the week is 2.983 million tons, reflecting a 0.4% increase, while the direct supply volume is 1.7 million tons, down 1.16% [2][19]. - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker kilns is 38.99%, down 0.66 percentage points from the previous week [2][19]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1165.05 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.10% from the previous week [6]. - The inventory of float glass remains high, with a total of 5.542 million heavy boxes, reflecting a decrease of 133,000 heavy boxes from the previous week [6]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The market price for non-alkali roving remains stable, with slight increases in inventory levels [7]. - The demand side shows signs of weakness, while the supply side remains relatively loose, leading to a cautious pricing outlook [7]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a weak recovery, supported by favorable policies and an increase in second-hand housing transactions [1][7]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market price remains stable, with a production volume of 2392 tons and an operating rate of 79.47% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report As the bond market adjusts, multiple factors are gradually brewing and strengthening to support its stabilization. The supply pressure of government bonds is easing, and there is a possibility of shortening the issuance duration. On the demand side, the pressure on bank indicators may ease around the end of the year, the rising long - term bond yields will increase the allocation value of long - term bonds and boost the allocation demand of institutions such as insurance companies. Meanwhile, the reduction of trading institutions' positions will weaken the short - selling force. It is expected that the bond market will gradually stabilize in the subsequent period, start a trending market in the second half of the first quarter, and the 10 - year Treasury bond is still expected to hit a new low in the first quarter of next year [3][23]. 3. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Performance This Week - The bond market strengthened slightly overall this week but was volatile. After the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts on Thursday, interest rates declined significantly, but on Friday, there was an obvious adjustment and most of the previous gains were given back. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds both declined by 0.8bps to 1.84% and 2.25% respectively. The 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - perpetual bonds declined by 3.9bps and 0.4bps to 2.02% and 2.24% respectively. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rose slightly by 0.5bps to 1.66% [1][7]. Supply - Side Factors for Bond Market Stabilization - The supply pressure of government bonds will ease in the future. As of December 12, the net financing of general Treasury bonds was 5.04 trillion yuan, the net financing of special Treasury bonds was 1.8 trillion yuan, the issuance of new special bonds was 4.6 trillion yuan, and the issuance of new general bonds was 770 billion yuan. Even considering the subsequent use of the 500 billion yuan local bond balance limit, the annual government bond issuance task is basically completed. Next week, government bonds will have a net repayment of 119.1 billion yuan, the first time since April this year that the net repayment exceeded 100 billion yuan, and the supply pressure before the end of the year may remain limited. Although there will still be significant supply pressure for government bonds next year, the supply pressure at the long - end may be limited at the beginning of the year [1][8]. - There is a possibility of adjusting the supply - side duration. As the interest rate of ultra - long - term bonds rises, the issuance cost of ultra - long - term bonds has increased significantly, which may lead to changes in the maturity selection of local government bonds. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds has climbed above 40bps, significantly higher than the low of about 16bps in the first quarter of this year. The average issuance term of local government bonds has decreased from 16.4 years in January this year to 14.8 years in October, which will alleviate the supply pressure of ultra - long - term bonds and support the market to stabilize [1][11]. Demand - Side Factors for Bond Market Stabilization - The phased alleviation of bank indicator pressure can help the market gradually stabilize. The recent bond market adjustment is mainly reflected in the decline of ultra - long - term bonds, mainly because banks have been continuously reducing their holdings of ultra - long - term bonds in the secondary market due to the pressure of the △EVE to Tier - 1 capital ratio. As the end of the year approaches, the pressure on bank indicators will gradually ease, and the motivation to significantly reduce long - term bond holdings will decline. At the beginning of the year, banks may obtain new capital supplements, and the pressure of indicator constraints may further improve, which will further reduce the selling demand and may even turn to buying [1][17]. - As interest rates rise, allocation - oriented institutions such as insurance companies may gradually increase their allocations. The slowdown in the insurance allocation rhythm in the fourth quarter is due to the slowdown in premium income growth, an increase in the equity ratio in asset allocation, and concerns about interest rate trends. However, as long - term bond interest rates continue to adjust, their cost - effectiveness has significantly increased. The insurance "good start" will bring new premium income, forming new allocation demand [2][17]. - The reduction of trading institutions' positions means the weakening of subsequent short - selling forces. Trading institutions such as securities firms and funds usually follow market trends, accelerating market adjustments during the recent market decline. However, as their positions decrease, the selling force will decline, alleviating market adjustment pressure. Once the market stabilizes, their position - adding may help the market stabilize [2][18]. - From the perspective of market position, the adjustment of long - term bonds will enhance their attractiveness in terms of absolute return and curve shape. The spread between mortgage loans and 30 - year Treasury bonds is at the lowest level since mid - 2017, and the spread with 30 - year local bonds is at the lowest level since relevant data became available, which will increase the allocation demand of institutions. The increase in the curve slope will enhance the cost - effectiveness of the barbell strategy, increasing the allocation of long - term bonds [3][18].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 基础化工 左手商业航天右手消费，聚焦 3D 打印材料 3D 打印全球 219 亿美元市场，材料种类多样。3D 打印即增材制造（AM）， 被誉为引领第三次工业革命的核心技术。不同于传统制造将原料"削减" 加工成所需形状，3D 打印可一体化成型复杂结构产品，具有快捷、低成 本、高精度等优势。根据 WOHLERS，2024 年全球 3D 打印市场规模高 达 219 亿美元。材料方面，金属材料占比 22%，其中铁基材料由于成本 较低最为主流；高分子材料领域，PLA 线材以其优异的打印性能及低廉的 价格深度绑定 FDM 成为应用最广泛的材料；SLA 光固化主要采用光敏树 脂；SLS 主要搭配高分子粉材，PA12 为主流品种。 消费级 3D 打印机：中国"四小龙"腾飞，行业加速崛起。过去消费打印 机普遍存在"速度慢、易故障、难上手"的问题，目前技术升级带来打印 效率、精度提升；同时主流品牌入门级型号降价至 1000 元内，大大降低 了购买门槛，而例如 Gemini Nano Banana 等多模态 AI 大模型的出现可通 过 2D 图 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：白酒龙头信号积极，量贩龙头景气扩张 投资建议：1、白酒：坚持内需主导下顺周期白酒估值、基本面有望先后 修复，茅台、五粮液出牌优化渠道与价格，板块底部价值持续凸显，建议 配置：1）供给出清或边际改善：泸州老窖、古井贡酒、迎驾贡酒、洋河 股份、港股珍酒李渡、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒等；2）中长期龙头：贵州茅台、 五粮液、山西汾酒等。2、大众品：中央经济工作会议重点定调内需主导， 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，由食品价格转正带动，鸣鸣很忙上市获批，卫 龙盐津重点打造魔芋，优先关注成长股、后续切换复苏： 1）高景气或高 成长逻辑：东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、万辰集团、盐津铺子、有友 食品、新乳业、百龙创园等，港股卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善： 百润股份、青岛啤酒、海天味业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、洽洽 食品、仙乐健康、安井食品、立高食品、好想你等，港股农夫山泉、华润 饮料、H&H 国际控股等。 白酒：茅台、普五纷纷出牌，龙头积极、静待改善。临近年底旺季将至， 在白酒需求疲软、供给持续出清、批价仍在承 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [3][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion are favorable for precious metals, with expectations of further rate cuts in 2026 [1][35]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that copper inventories are increasing in the U.S., while non-U.S. regions face supply tightness, which could lead to a short squeeze [2]. - The aluminum market is supported by positive macroeconomic policies and low inventory levels, leading to a strong price floor [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain low due to seasonal demand weakness [2]. - Lithium prices are experiencing fluctuations due to supply disruptions, while cobalt supply is set to increase with the resumption of exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve's recent actions are expected to boost liquidity and support precious metal prices [1][35]. - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, which could influence precious metal investments positively [1][35]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: U.S. copper inventories are rising, while low inventories in non-U.S. regions raise concerns about supply [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a strong price support due to positive economic data and low inventory levels [2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are projected to remain low as demand enters a seasonal downturn [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices are fluctuating due to supply disruptions, with recent increases in lithium carbonate prices [2]. - **Cobalt**: The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to stabilize supply and maintain high price levels [2]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others for potential investment opportunities [1][2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the optical communication sector, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [5][10]. Core Insights - The optical isolator is a critical passive device in optical communication systems, relying on the combination of polarizers and Faraday plates. There is a significant technological dependency and supply gap in the upstream manufacturing of these core components, particularly in high-end Faraday magnetic optical materials, which has become a bottleneck for industry development [1][19]. - The report highlights the low domestic production rate of core materials for polarizers, which are monopolized by Japanese and Korean suppliers, indicating a need for increased localization [3][21]. - The global shortage of Faraday plates is a critical issue, as their complex material growth and precision processing are dominated by a few companies in the US and Japan, leading to supply constraints that hinder the expansion of isolators and high-speed optical modules [4][22][23]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the upstream gaps in isolators, particularly polarizers and Faraday plates, and recommends companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication for investment [8][24]. Market Review - The communication sector has seen an increase, with optical communication performing particularly well, as indicated by various indices showing significant growth [15][18]. Supply Chain Dynamics - In 2024, China's production capacity for polarizers is expected to account for approximately 73% of the global market, yet the localization rate of core materials remains below 10%, posing challenges to supply chain stability [6][7][24]. Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies to monitor within the optical communication and related sectors, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and others involved in the supply chain [8][9][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Insights - The report indicates that high natural gas prices in the U.S. are driving a resurgence in coal consumption, with utilities opting to increase coal-fired power generation to control costs [2][3] - The performance of coal-fired power generation in the U.S. has seen a year-on-year increase of 21% in Q1 2025, while gas-fired generation has decreased by approximately 3% [3] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - As of December 12, 2025, coal prices have seen slight adjustments, with Newcastle coal priced at $107.75 per ton, down by $1.75 from the previous week, and ARA coal at $95.55 per ton, down by $1.20 [3][33] - The report highlights a significant increase in coal consumption in the U.S. due to the cost control measures by utilities, leading to a shift back to coal from gas [2][3] Key Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][6] - It also highlights companies with potential growth such as Huayang Co., Gansu Energy Chemical, and Jiangxi Tungsten Industry, which have recently undergone significant changes [3][6] Market Trends - The report notes that coal-fired power generation's carbon emissions are approximately 75% higher than those from gas-fired generation, indicating a potential increase in overall carbon emissions as coal's share in power generation rises [3] - The report anticipates further increases in natural gas prices, which could continue to influence coal consumption patterns [3][5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 交通运输 快递、民航"反内卷"整治持续，VLCC 受制裁名单再扩大 周观点：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行，会议明确"制 定全国统一大市场建设条例，深入整治'内卷式'竞争"。继续看好快递、 航空在"反内卷"整治下的投资机会。快递反内卷线：快递行业份额逐步 向头部快递集中，反内卷政策下恶性价格战得到有效遏制，头部快递份额、 利润同步提升，有望迎来双击。快递出海线：快递出海，天地广阔，海外 电商 GMV 爆发式增长，带动快递业务量迅猛增长，相关标的为极兔速递。 看好"反内卷"整治下航空板块中长期景气度：运力供给维持低增速、需 求持续恢复，供需缺口缩小叠加油价中枢下移及"反内卷"政策继续推进， 静待票价持续修复、航司盈利不断改善。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数下跌 1.55%，跑输上证指数 1.21 个百分点（上证指数下跌 0.34%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，仅 公路货运板块上涨，涨幅为 4.76%；跌幅前三名分别为公交、高速公路、 铁路运输板块，对应跌幅分别为-4.97%、-2.49% ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 量化周报 市场的震荡调整态势不改 市场的震荡调整态势不改。本周（ 12.8-12.12），大盘震荡下行，上证指数 全周收跌 0.34%。在此背景下，煤炭、钢铁、农林牧渔确认日线级别下跌， 军工迎来日线级别上涨。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级别反弹 已经持续了 7 个多月，反弹幅度也基本在 30%左右，各大指数和板块的 上涨基本都轮动了一遍，超半数的行业日线级别上涨处于超涨状态，几乎 所有的规模指数及一半以上的行业更是走出了复杂的 9-17浪的上涨结构， 科创 50、中小 100 更是在所有宽基里面率先形成了日线级别下跌，地产、 食品饮料、医药、商贸零售、汽车、电子、计算机、非银、机械、煤炭、 钢铁、农林牧渔也相继形成了日线级别下跌，中证 500、中证 1000、创业 板指、沪深 300、传媒、建筑、建材也有较大概率将确认日线级别下跌。 因此我们认为本轮日线级别上涨大概率已经结束。未来市场大概率会是震 荡调整的态势，当下的反弹大概率只是一波 30 分钟级别反弹，不改市场 的震荡调整态势。中期来看，上证指数、上证 ...

- Model Name: Timing Radar Six-Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The model attempts to capture the performance of the equity market through multiple dimensions, including liquidity, economic conditions, valuation, capital flows, technical indicators, and crowding; Model Construction Process: The model selects 21 indicators from the aforementioned dimensions and categorizes them into four major categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal." These indicators are then used to generate a comprehensive timing score ranging from [-1,1]; Model Evaluation: The model provides a comprehensive view of market conditions from multiple perspectives, making it a useful tool for market timing[1][6][9] - Factor Name: Liquidity Direction Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor aims to determine the direction of current monetary policy; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated using the average change in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days. If the factor is greater than 0, it indicates a loose monetary policy, and if less than 0, it indicates a tight monetary policy; Current View: This week, the liquidity direction factor is greater than 0, signaling a bullish outlook, with a score of 1[11][13] - Factor Name: Liquidity Strength Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor is based on the "interest rate corridor" concept to measure the deviation of short-term market rates from policy rates; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the deviation = DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1, smoothed and z-scored. If the factor is less than -1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a loose environment for the next 120 trading days, with a score of 1. Conversely, if greater than 1.5 standard deviations, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the liquidity strength factor score is 0, indicating a neutral signal[14][15] - Factor Name: Credit Direction Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures the tightness of credit transmission from commercial banks to the real economy; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated using the monthly value of medium- and long-term loans, the incremental value over the past 12 months, and the year-over-year change. If the factor is rising compared to three months ago, it is bullish, with a score of 1. Conversely, if falling, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the credit direction factor is identified as an upward trend, signaling a bullish outlook, with a score of 1[17][19] - Factor Name: Credit Strength Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor captures whether credit indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as (new RMB loans for the month - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation. If the factor is greater than 1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a significantly above-expectation credit environment for the next 60 trading days, with a score of 1. Conversely, if less than -1.5 standard deviations, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the credit strength factor score is -1[20][22] - Factor Name: Growth Direction Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor is based on PMI data to measure economic growth direction; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated using the 12-month average of PMI values and their year-over-year change. If the factor is rising compared to three months ago, it is bullish, with a score of 1. Conversely, if falling, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the growth direction factor is identified as an upward trend, signaling a bullish outlook, with a score of 1[22][24] - Factor Name: Growth Strength Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor captures whether economic growth indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as (PMI - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation. If the factor is greater than 1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a significantly above-expectation growth environment for the next 60 trading days, with a score of 1. Conversely, if less than -1.5 standard deviations, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the growth strength factor score is -1, signaling a bearish outlook[25][26] - Factor Name: Inflation Direction Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures the current inflation level's impact on monetary policy; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as 0.5 × smoothed CPI year-over-year value + 0.5 × raw PPI year-over-year value. If the factor is lower compared to three months ago, it indicates a downward inflation environment, with a score of 1. Conversely, if higher, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the inflation direction factor is identified as an upward trend, signaling a bearish outlook, with a score of -1[27][28] - Factor Name: Inflation Strength Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor captures whether inflation indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the average of CPI and PPI forecast deviations, where forecast deviation = (reported value - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation. If the factor is less than -1.5, it indicates a significantly below-expectation inflation environment for the next 60 trading days, with a score of 1. Conversely, if greater than 1.5 standard deviations, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the inflation strength factor score is -1, signaling a bearish outlook[29][33] - Factor Name: Shiller ERP; Factor Construction Idea: This factor adjusts for economic cycle fluctuations in corporate earnings to assess current market valuation levels; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as Shiller ERP = 1 / Shiller PE - 10-year government bond yield, with the past 6 years' z-score used as the score; Current View: This week, the Shiller ERP has risen, with the score increasing to 0.06[30][31] - Factor Name: PB; Factor Construction Idea: This factor adjusts the PB indicator similarly to ERP; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as PB × (-1) and z-scored over the past 6 years, standardized to ±1 after 1.5 standard deviation truncation; Current View: This week, the PB has declined, with the score rising to -0.38[34][35] - Factor Name: AIAE; Factor Construction Idea: This factor reflects the overall market risk preference based on the aggregate investor allocation to equities; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as AIAE = total market cap of CSI All Share Index / (total market cap of CSI All Share Index + total debt of the real economy), with the past 6 years' z-score used as the score; Current View: This week, the AIAE has declined, with the score rising to -0.72[36][37] - Factor Name: Margin Trading Increment; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures market sentiment based on the source of leveraged funds; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the difference between the 120-day average increment and the 240-day average increment of margin trading balance. If the 120-day average increment is greater than the 240-day average increment, it is bullish, with a score of 1. Conversely, if less, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the short-term increment of margin trading is greater than the long-term increment, signaling a bullish outlook, with a score of 1[38][39] - Factor Name: Trading Volume Trend; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures market activity and sentiment based on trading volume; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the moving average distance of log trading volume = ma120 / ma240 - 1. If the maximum of the moving average distance over 10, 30, and 60 days is positive, it is bullish, with a score of 1. Conversely, if the minimum is negative, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the trading volume trend signals a bullish outlook, with a score of 1[41][42] - Factor Name: China Sovereign CDS Spread; Factor Construction Idea: This factor represents the pricing level of China's economic and sovereign credit risk by overseas investors; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the 20-day difference of the smoothed CDS spread. If the difference is less than 0, it indicates a bullish outlook, with a score of 1. Conversely, if greater than 0, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the 20-day difference of the CDS spread is greater than 0, signaling a bearish outlook, with a score of -1[45][46] - Factor Name: Overseas Risk Aversion Index; Factor Construction Idea: This factor captures overseas market risk preference based on the Citi RAI Index; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the 20-day difference of the smoothed risk aversion index. If the difference is less than 0, it indicates a bullish outlook, with a score of 1. Conversely, if greater than 0, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the 20-day difference of the risk aversion index is less than 0, signaling a bullish outlook, with a score of 1[47][48] - Factor Name: Price Trend; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures the market trend and strength based on moving average distance; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the moving average distance = ma120 / ma240 - 1. If the distance is greater than 0, the trend direction score is 1, otherwise -1. If the maximum of the distance over