大宗：外糖价格下跌，大豆价格下跌 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 美分/蒲式 耳 期货收盘价(活跃):CBOT小麦 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 元/吨现货价：粳稻 资料来源：iFind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：iFind，国盛证券研究所 图表24：本周国内大豆现货价 3964.21 元/吨，较上周下跌 0.6% 图表25：本周 CBOT 大豆收盘价 979.75 美分/蒲式耳，较上周下跌 1.6% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 元/吨现货价:菜粕 资料来源：iFind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：iFind，国盛证券研究所 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 元/吨现货价:菜油(进口四级) 2024 12 22 年 月 日 ...

图表30：本周国内24度棕榈油现货价9716.67 元/吨，较上周下跌4.1% 图表31：本周 BMD 棕榈油收盘价 4434 林吉特/吨，较上周下跌 9.6% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 元/吨现货价:棕榈油(24度) 资料来源：iFind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：iFind，国盛证券研究所 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 林吉特/吨期货收盘价(活跃):BMD棕榈油 图表32：本周柳州白糖现货价 6050 元/吨，较上周下跌 1.5% 图表33：本周 NYBOT11 号糖收盘价 19.51 美分/磅，较上周下跌 5.6% | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------------|-----------------|-------|-- ...

通信 字节领跑，国内算力投资加码 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 【复盘与当下：投资方加码 AI 趋势显著】 | | 增持（维持） | | | | | | | | ...

缺乏冬储的淡季 中信钢铁指数报收 1,574.10 点，下跌 2.71%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.57pct， 位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 18 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：本周市场科技股表现突出，相对资源股和商品价格欠佳。美联储本 周"鹰派降息"尽管降息幅度与此前市场普遍预期持平，但摘要同时宣布 2025 年仅打算降息两次，而非此前普遍预期的 4 次。受此影响美元再度走强，金融 属性较强的有色金属受到压制。黑色商品受煤炭供给增加的影响，成本支撑减 弱也表现不佳。因此进入淡季后，市场对涨价预期不强，即使库存极低，也没 有激发今年冬季中间商的冬储意愿。我们本周发布了 2025 年年度策略《告别 放任的年代》，对于明年的中国经济恢复我们抱有乐观态度，中央经济工作会 议中财政宽松和货币宽松的定调是主要的亮点。如果看的长一点，财政政策转 向宽松有重要意义，这也是近期推动经济持续反弹，中期推动经济恢复正常的 关键。由于 2018 年以来财政政策取向长期偏紧且过去两年财政政策执行很 差，多数人低估了财政政策取向转向宽松的意义，低估了财政政策及其执行相 比过去两年改善的幅度。需要更长的时间，也需要更多政策 ...

养殖业 蛋鸡苗：销量同比增加，售价同比上涨。2024 年 11 月，晓鸣股份销售鸡 产品 2411.97 万羽，同比增加 26.43%，11 月测算均价 3.85 元/羽，同比 上涨 56.6%，环比上涨 4.5%。 风险提示：原材料价格波动、发生鸡类疫病、消费需求下滑超预期、测算 偏差风险。 分析师 张斌梅 执业证书编号：S0680523070007 邮箱：zhangbinmei@gszq.com 分析师 樊嘉敏 执业证书编号：S0680523070008 邮箱：fanjiamin@gszq.com 1、《养殖业：出栏环比上升，体重环比微降——2024 年 11 月生猪销售跟踪》 2024-12-19 2、《养殖业：白鸡苗价持续攀升，黄鸡价格平稳—— 2024 年 10 月家禽销售跟踪》 2024-11-20 3、《养殖业：出栏环比上升，体重表现平稳——2024 年 10 月生猪销售跟踪》 2024-11-20 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 2024 12 20 年 月 日 白羽鸡：苗价上涨继续，鸡肉价格回暖。2024 年 11 月，主产区鸡苗平均 价 4.27 元/只，环比上涨 2.7%，烟台出厂价 4.5 ...

增持（维持） 养殖业 gszqdatemark 白鸡苗价上涨继续，黄鸡价格下跌——2024 年 11 月家禽销售跟 踪 黄羽鸡：售价有所回落，销量增速分化。温氏股份、立华股份、湘佳股份 2024 年 11 月分别销售肉鸡 11088.4 万只、4531.6 万只、385.1 万只，同 比分别+3.6%、+14.3%、-8.5%。价格方面，11 月温氏股份、立华股份、 湘佳股份售价分别为 12.7 元/公斤、12.2 元/公斤、10.5 元/公斤，环比分 别-4.4%、-6.0%、-3.9%，价格下跌明显。本周（12 月 7 日-12 月 13 日） 慢速鸡周均价 14.72 元/公斤，跌幅 4.04%；中速鸡周均价 11.5 元/公斤， 跌幅 4.49%；快速鸡周均价 9.86 元/公斤，跌幅 4.09%。市场处于供过于 求局面，叠加珠三角市场即将休市以及年末续养需求减弱的双重影响，国 鸡行情持续低迷，各品类价格波动下行。预计冬至前，鸡价或维持下滑趋 势。 风险提示：原材料价格波动、发生鸡类疫病、消费需求下滑超预期、测算 偏差风险。 作者 相关研究 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 内容目录 图表目录 | --- | ...

通信 证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2024 12 19 年 月 日 AI 的新视角：从算力之战到能源之争 ——通信策略之 AI 基础设施篇 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

通信 证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2024 12 19 年 月 日 AI 的新视角：从算力之战到能源之争 ——通信策略之 AI 基础设施篇 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Horizon Robotics-W (09660 HK) with a target price of HKD 3 82 per share, implying a 2026E P/S of 9 5x and a forward PE of less than 30x based on steady-state assumptions [2] Core Views - Horizon Robotics is a leading domestic intelligent driving solution provider, ranking fourth in China's ADAS and AD solution market in 2023 and first among Chinese companies [2] - The company holds a 35% market share in China's NOA high-end intelligent driving computing solutions, second only to NVIDIA's 49% [2] - The global intelligent driving solution market is expected to reach RMB 1 trillion by 2030, with high-end autonomous driving solutions dominating the market [2] - Horizon Robotics benefits from its strong software-hardware integration capabilities, first-mover advantage, and domestic substitution trends [2] Company Overview - Horizon Robotics generated RMB 1 55 billion in revenue in 2023, with automotive product solutions, licensing and services, and non-automotive solutions accounting for 33%, 62%, and 5% respectively [2] - The company's revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 47% from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 5 billion by 2026 [2] - Horizon Robotics' core management team has strong technical backgrounds, with founders holding significant voting power (53 64% and 12 09%) [80][93] Industry Analysis - The global intelligent driving solution market is expected to grow from RMB 61 9 billion in 2023 to over RMB 1 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of 49 2% [106] - In China, the market is projected to expand from RMB 24 5 billion in 2023 to RMB 407 billion by 2030, with high-end autonomous driving solutions growing at a CAGR of 58 5% [108] - Key drivers include rapid technological iteration, increasing penetration of intelligent driving, rising ASPs for high-end solutions, and supportive government policies [113] Competitive Advantages - Horizon Robotics' strengths lie in its software-defined hardware approach, strong customer stickiness due to high switching costs, and its position as a domestic player benefiting from localization trends [2] - The company has established a comprehensive product portfolio, including Horizon Mono, Horizon Pilot, and Horizon SuperDrive, with the latter expected to contribute to revenue from 2024 [71][76] Growth Drivers - The company's hardware business is expected to benefit from the downward penetration of intelligent driving in the automotive sector, while its software business will gain from OEMs' increasing in-house R&D efforts [2] - Horizon Robotics' partnership with Volkswagen through the joint venture Coretronic is expected to drive growth in licensing and services [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 2 24 billion in 2024E to RMB 4 97 billion in 2026E, with non-GAAP net profit turning positive in 2026E at RMB 322 million [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain strong, ranging between 70%-80%, driven by the high-margin licensing business [99]

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2024 12 19 年 月 日 煤炭开采 六年长虹，七年可期——煤炭行业 2025 年策略 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...