证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2024 12 22 年 月 日 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

gszqdatemark 本周聚焦—10 月零售高频数据跟踪：资产质量边际改善，住房贷款需求有望企稳 A．违约率稳中有降。截至 2024 年 10 月末，10 款零售贷款 ABS 产品合 计当期违约率为 0.16%，环比 9 月末下降 1bp。拉长时间区间观察，违约 风险暴露高峰（1-2 月）已过，3 月以来违约率保持稳中有降态势。 3）趋势性展望，当前利好经济政策持续发力下，银行零售贷款需求、资 款规模压降的部分压力。9 月 24 日人民银行宣布"引导商业银行将存量 房贷利率降至新发房贷利率附近"，统一首套房和二套房的房贷最低首付 比例至 15%，而 10 月新发放个人住房贷款利率已降至 3.15%的历史低位 （11 月进一步降至 3.08%），或一定程度上刺激居民购置"刚改型"住房 的需求（6 月以来，全国商品房销售面积累计同比降幅已连续 6 个月收 窄），同时减轻银行住房贷款提前还贷压力。根据央行按季披露的贷款投 向统计数据，截至 2024 年 9 月末，个人住房贷款占本外币住户贷款比重 仍较高、约为 45.8%，住房贷款需求企稳或能缓解零售贷款规模压降的部 分压力。 B、资产质量上，近期利好经济政策频 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Maintain Overweight [5] Core Views - The liquor industry is undergoing a transformation, with structural prosperity remaining unchanged, and leading companies like Wuliangye are demonstrating resilience and strategic advantages during the adjustment period [1] - The beer sector shows signs of stabilization, with potential for recovery in 2025 driven by policy stimulus and improved consumer confidence [2] - The beverage sector is expected to maintain high growth in 2025, supported by extended holidays and recovery in travel scenarios [2] - The food sector is benefiting from new gifting scenarios enabled by WeChat's "Send Gifts" feature, which is expected to boost sales during the holiday season [3] Liquor Industry - Wuliangye's 1218 Dealer Conference signaled positive developments, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing prices, improving sales efficiency, and ensuring reasonable profits for dealers [1] - The industry is expected to see gradual improvement in both volume and price, supported by macroeconomic policies [1] - Key investment themes include leading companies with strong market positions, regional liquor companies with high certainty, and recovery-driven stocks [7] Beer Sector - Beer production in November 2024 increased by 5.7% YoY to 1.695 million tons, driven by low base effects and policy stimulus [2] - The sector is expected to benefit from recovery in dining-out scenarios and favorable weather conditions in 2025 [2] - Companies with strong execution capabilities and large single-product growth potential are recommended [2] Beverage Sector - Soft drink production in November 2024 reached 11.037 million tons, up 5.0% YoY, with growth slowing due to a higher base [2] - The sector is expected to maintain high growth in 2025, driven by extended holidays and recovery in travel scenarios [2] - Companies with refined channel management and strong strategic execution are preferred [2] Food Sector - WeChat's "Send Gifts" feature is expected to create new consumption scenarios, particularly during the holiday season [3] - Snack companies with strong online operations and gifting attributes are likely to benefit from this trend [3] - Companies like Three Squirrels, Yanjin Shop, and Haoxiangni have already integrated with the WeChat gifting platform [3] Investment Recommendations - Liquor: Focus on leading companies, regional liquor companies with high certainty, and recovery-driven stocks [7] - Consumer Goods: Look for companies benefiting from policy stimulus or recovery, as well as those with high growth potential [7] - Food: Prioritize companies with strong online operations and gifting attributes [7]

增持（维持） 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 2024 12 22 年 月 日 鸿蒙 AI 生态及鸿蒙 PC 展望 开源鸿蒙 5.0 Release 重磅发布，鸿蒙 PC 即将到来。1）2024 年 12 月 20 日，开放原子开源鸿蒙项目群重磅发布了开源鸿蒙操作系统 5.0 Release 版本。该版本在系统完备度、分布式创新、开发者体验以及系统 稳定性等方面均实现了显著提升，标志着开源鸿蒙操作系统又进入一个全 新的发展阶段，将加速推动生态共建。目前，以开源鸿蒙为底座的生态设 备突破 10 亿。2）根据余承东的采访，目前的华为 PC 或将是最后一批搭 载 Windows 系统的笔记本电脑，后续将会有鸿蒙系统 PC 产品。而根据 Canalys，国内 PC 市场看，信创相关鼓励政策为国内厂商的繁荣发展营造 有利环境。2024 年第三季度，中小企业和大型企业均需求疲软，商用市场 面临挑战，PC 销量下跌 7%，对比之下，在政府和教育领域支出复苏的推 动下，政府部门出现增长，增速达 3%，且这类刺激政策有望继续保持， 并将在未来一年推动中国 PC 市场的复苏。而从中国（大陆）台式机和笔 记本电脑出货看，华为品牌 20 ...

证券研究报告|行业策略 2024 12 20 年 月 日 投资建议 ◼ 食品饮料作为内需风向标，2025年政策发力拉动下有望迎来估值与业绩双修复，白酒中长期配置价值凸显，大众品成长与复苏双主线： 山西汾酒、古井贡酒；2）红利延续，高确定性区域酒：迎驾贡酒（洞藏大单品红利）、老白干酒（本部区域红利）、今世缘（江苏格局红利）等；3）强势复苏，弹性 酒、洽洽食品等；2）高景气度或成长逻辑：三只松鼠、东鹏饮料、盐津铺子、劲仔食品、百润股份、仙乐健康、有友食品等。 高股息标的重庆啤酒。 ✓ 软饮料：2024年跑赢食品饮料行业整体，成本红利显著，2025年出行恢复叠加大单品发力下板块高增速有望延续，成本红利或减弱但业绩弹性仍存。推荐高景气高成 友食品、盐津铺子、劲仔食品。 ✓ 餐饮供应链与调味品：一揽子政策发力有望提振内需，餐饮等大众化消费场景有望逐渐修复，驱动量价边际转好。2025年餐饮供应链有望企稳向上。短期餐饮需求仍承 ✓ 乳制品：2025年行业供需格局有望逐步改善，在需求恢复、供给出清、奶价企稳预期之下，看好龙头乳企伊利股份、成长路径清晰的新乳业、走出经营底部的天润乳业。 工环节及具备α改善逻辑的个股，推荐中国区 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|--------|---------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 传感器 平台 | 数据链 | 指挥控制 平台 | | | | | | 武器平台 | | | | | | | gszqdatemark 数据链领域重点关注： 3.3.5 电子对抗：信息化、无人化战争时代必将强化的力量 2024 12 22 年 月 日 电子对抗建议关注：盟升电子、新劲刚、国博电子、六九一二。 3.3.6 卫星互联网：进入高密度发射新阶段，产业全面加速 上海垣信斯开高密度发射第一章，海外业务落地迈出第一步。2024.8.6，千帆星座（G60） 首批组网星在太原由长征六甲火箭成功发射，采用一箭 18 星堆叠发射，斯开卫星互联网 高密度、航班化、常态化发射序幕，随后在同年 10 月 15 日、12 月 5 日分别进行了 02、 03 批次星发射，累计发射 54 颗卫星，成为 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 上】2024 年 12 月 19 日，教育部、国家统计局、财政部发布《2023 年全国教 育经费执行情况统计公告》。公告显示，2023 年全国教育经费总投入 64595.04 亿元。其中，国家财政性教育经费 50439.47 亿元，比上年增长 4.06%，首次 突破 5 万亿元。另外，公告还显示，2023 年国家财政性教育经费支出占 GDP 的比例为 4.00%。这是国家财政性教育经费支出占 GDP 比例连续 12 年保持 在 4%以上。在经济下行压力加大、财政收支矛盾突出的情况下，我国依旧持 续完成了 4%任务。 2024 年 12月22 日 图表目录 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 1 投资聚焦 传媒 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating for the communication industry, particularly focusing on the optical communication sector [32] Core Views - The optical communication industry is expected to remain highly prosperous in 2025, driven by strong demand and rapid technological advancements [8] - Key themes for 2025 include **overseas expansion, new product launches, and capacity expansion** [8] - The report highlights the potential of **AEC (Active Electrical Cable)** and **LPO (Linear Pluggable Optics)** as emerging solutions in short-distance scenarios [3][59] - **Silicon photonics** is expected to enter a significant growth phase by 2025, with **CW laser-based silicon photonics** becoming mainstream [7][45] - **CPO (Co-Packaged Optics)** and **OIO (Optical I/O)** are identified as key future technologies, with CPO offering significant power efficiency improvements over traditional solutions [91][138] Key Technology Trends Short-Distance Solutions - **AEC** is highlighted as a cost-effective and reliable solution for short-distance data center interconnects, with a focus on 400G, 800G, and 1.6T products [59][61] - **LPO** is positioned as a potential dark horse in short-distance interconnects due to its lower power consumption and cost advantages, with major players like **Inphi** and **Broadcom** driving adoption [51][57] Silicon Photonics - Silicon photonics is expected to see significant growth by 2025, driven by supply constraints in **EML lasers** and the need for higher data rates [7][45] - Major players like **Infinera** and **Lumentum** are expected to ramp up silicon photonics production, with **Infinera** already planning to ship silicon photonics-based modules in 2025 [26] CPO and OIO - **CPO** is identified as a key technology for reducing power consumption and improving integration in data centers, with **Broadcom** leading the way in CPO solutions [91][95] - **OIO** represents the next frontier in optical communication, with potential applications in chip-level interconnects, though it remains a longer-term prospect [138][174] Market and Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes the **headwinds** in the optical communication market, with leading companies like **Infinera**, **New H3C**, and **TFC** benefiting from their strong supply chains and customer relationships [38] - The competitive landscape is expected to favor **overseas expansion** and **new product development**, with **Infinera** and **New H3C** leading the charge [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on **North American optical communication companies**, including **Infinera**, **New H3C**, **TFC**, and **TFC**, while also keeping an eye on domestic players like **Accelink** and **HG Tech** [8][176] - **Silicon photonics** and **optical interconnects** are highlighted as key areas for investment, with **Infinera** and **TFC** being the top picks [176][177] Key Companies and Products - **Infinera**: Leading in silicon photonics and CPO solutions, with plans to ship silicon photonics-based modules in 2025 [26][176] - **New H3C**: Strong in AEC and LPO solutions, with a focus on short-distance interconnects [61][150] - **TFC**: A key player in optical interconnects, with a strong presence in North America [177] - **Accelink** and **HG Tech**: Domestic players with potential in the optical communication market [176]

本报告的信息均来源于本公司认为可信的公开资料，但本公司及其研究人员对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。 本报告中的资料、意见及预测仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，可能会随时调整。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本 报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息及资料保持在最新状态，对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的资料、工具、意见、信息及推测只提供给客户作参考之用，不构成任何 投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司不就报告中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。本报告中所指的投资 及服务可能不适合个别客户，不构成客户私人咨询建议。投资者应当充分考虑自身特定状况，并完整理解和使用本报告内 容，不应视本报告为做出投资决策的唯一因素。 投资者应注意，在法律许可的情况下，本公司及其本公司的关联机构可能会持有本报告中涉及的公司所发行的证券并进行 交易，也可能为这些公司正在提供或争取提供投资银行、财务顾问和金融产品等各种金融服务。 本报告版权归"国盛证券有限责任公司"所有。未经事先本公司书面授权，任何机 ...

➢ 应用研发：应用的不断创新是推动行业发展的关键，互联网厂商 需要投入大量资金进行 AI 技术的研发，包括算法研究、模型训练、 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2024 12 21 年 月 日 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 重点标的 2024 12 21 年 月 日 gszqdatemark 应用开发等。 互联网厂商在 AI 相关领域的资本投入，为多条产业链环节带来了显著利 好。光模块供应商因数据中心通信需求的增长受益，国内光模块厂商 有望获得更多订单和市场份额；交换机供应商也会受益于数据中心规 模扩张和性能需求的提高；数据中心托管商凭借机房租赁和运维业务 的增长实现快速发展；散热厂商则因液冷散热设备需求增加而受益； 备用电源供应商随着数据中心可靠性要求的提升获得更多市场机会； 服务器组装环节和电源供应商也因AI业务对服务器需求的增长迎来更 大的订单和利润空间。 综上，我们长期看好算力板块，当下时点重点建议关注国产算力以及 相关产业链的进展，重点推荐在光通信龙头中际旭创、新易盛、天孚 通信等，同时建议关注国产算力龙头寒武纪-U，国产光通信厂商如光 迅科技、德科立、华工科技等，交换机厂商如锐捷 ...