Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the Hainan sector and sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, indicating a positive medium-term outlook for new consumption growth, transformation recovery, overseas expansion, and policy benefits [3] Core Insights - Following the new gold tax policy, there has been a price increase in gold jewelry at retail terminals, highlighting the importance of brand strength and product quality [1][2] - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses of standard gold, affecting tax deductions and pricing strategies for retailers [2] - Major brands have raised their gold prices post-policy implementation, with increases ranging from 58 to 70 CNY per gram for leading brands [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The retail index increased by 0.31% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.77 percentage points [9] - The retail sector's performance ranked 17th among all sectors during this period [9] 2. Company Dynamics - Small Commodity City has acquired land for a cultural and commercial complex for 3.2 billion CNY [16] - West China Tourism plans to issue up to 30.61 million shares to raise no more than 300 million CNY for working capital and debt repayment [16] 3. Industry Dynamics - Xiaohongshu has obtained a payment license, indicating a significant development in the digital payment landscape [22] - Starbucks has partnered with Boyu Capital to expand its retail operations in China, aiming to increase the number of stores to 20,000 [22] - JD's global sales during the Double 11 event saw a transaction volume increase of over 300% in cross-border shipping areas [23]

CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI turned positive at 0.2% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, marking a 9-month high[2] - The core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, continuing its upward trend for the sixth consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[2] - Food prices fell by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, while energy prices saw a year-on-year decline of 2.4%[5] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points for the third consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[3] - Key drivers for the PPI's month-on-month increase include the "anti-involution" trend, rising prices in the non-ferrous sector, and increased demand for general consumer goods[3] - The PPI for production materials rose by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI for living materials remained flat[6] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to see a mild recovery in November and December, with an annual average around 0%[4] - The PPI is projected to fluctuate at low levels, with an annual average around -2.7%[4] - The performance of six major commodities (crude oil, coal, rebar, copper, lithium carbonate, and pork) will significantly influence future PPI readings[4]

- The report mentions the construction of the A-share sentiment index, which is based on market volatility and trading volume changes. The sentiment index divides the market into four quadrants, with only the "volatility up-trading volume down" quadrant showing significant negative returns, while the other quadrants show significant positive returns. This index includes bottom warning and top warning signals[37][43][46] - The A-share sentiment index currently indicates bearish signals for both bottom and top warnings. The overall sentiment signal is bearish[40][43][46] - The A-share prosperity index is constructed using the YoY growth of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the Shanghai Composite Index as the Nowcasting target. The index shows a slow upward trend, indicating the current market is in an upward cycle[32][35][36] - The report highlights the performance of style factors, including residual volatility (RESVOL), momentum (MOM), and others. Residual volatility factor showed high excess returns, while momentum factor exhibited significant negative excess returns. High-value stocks performed well, whereas size and non-linear size factors underperformed[61][62][69] - The report uses the BARRA factor model to construct ten style factors for the A-share market, including size (SIZE), beta (BETA), momentum (MOM), residual volatility (RESVOL), non-linear size (NLSIZE), valuation (BTOP), liquidity (LIQUIDITY), earnings yield (EARNINGS_YIELD), growth (GROWTH), and leverage (LVRG)[61][62][64] - The report evaluates the performance of enhanced index portfolios. The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio achieved a weekly return of 0.40%, outperforming the benchmark by 0.45%. Since 2020, the portfolio has generated an excess return of 52.65% relative to the CSI 500 index, with a maximum drawdown of -5.73%[48][51][53] - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio's holdings include stocks such as Hongfa Shares (600885.SH) with a weight of 3.47%, Gujin Securities (600109.SH) with a weight of 2.74%, and others[53][55][56] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio achieved a weekly return of 0.84%, outperforming the benchmark by 0.02%. Since 2020, the portfolio has generated an excess return of 39.36% relative to the CSI 300 index, with a maximum drawdown of -5.86%[56][57][60] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio's holdings include stocks such as Yunnan Baiyao (000538.SZ) with a weight of 6.04%, Fangzheng Securities (601901.SH) with a weight of 5.73%, and others[60][56][57]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a decrease of 0.3% to an increase of 0.2%, marking the highest value since February of this year, with a seasonal level higher than the previous two years [1][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of 0.2 percentage points to -2.1%, marking the third consecutive month of narrowing [1][8] - Gold prices significantly impacted both CPI and PPI, with domestic gold futures prices increasing by 52.8% year-on-year, a substantial rise of 9.5 percentage points compared to September [2][12] Group 2: Food Prices and Core CPI - Food prices decreased by 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, affecting CPI by approximately 0.54 percentage points [2][16] - Core CPI rose by 1.2%, the highest since March 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [2][9] - The increase in core CPI was primarily driven by gold prices, with other goods and services related to gold also showing a significant year-on-year increase of 12.8% [2][12] Group 3: PPI and Industry Performance - The PPI for October showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with notable performance in the non-ferrous industry, where prices increased by 5.3% and 2.4% for mining and metal processing, respectively [3][21] - The narrowing decline in PPI was attributed to ongoing capacity management and increased demand for coal mining and washing, with a reduction in the decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][21] - Life goods PPI decreased by 1.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [3][21] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - The rise in prices is influenced by multiple factors, including the increase in gold prices and weather-related impacts on vegetable prices, leading to an unexpected overall price increase [4][23] - The bond market is entering a recovery phase, with a recommendation for a barbell strategy to manage risks while benefiting from potential interest rate declines [4][25] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to recover to a range of 1.6%-1.65% by the end of the year [4][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Viewpoints - Indonesia's coal export volume is expected to decrease by 20-30 million tons in 2025 compared to 2024 [2] - The report highlights the performance resilience of companies such as Yancoal Energy, Jinko Coal, and focuses on Keda Automation, which specializes in smart mining [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of performance in stock valuation, recommending companies like Shaanxi Coal, Electric Power Energy, and Huai Bei Mining [3] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - Indonesia's coal export volume for 2024 reached 566 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.57%, marking a historical high [3] - As of September 2025, Indonesia's coal production decreased by 7.47% year-on-year to 584 million tons, with coal exports down by 7.3% to 380 million tons [3] Price Trends - As of November 7, 2025, coal prices at various ports showed the following changes: - European ARA port coal price (6000K) at $99.15 per ton, up by $3.4 per ton (+3.55%) - Newcastle port coal price (6000K) at $113.7 per ton, up by $1 per ton (+0.89%) - IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures price at $86.9 per ton, up by $5.15 per ton (+4.57%) [30][32] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - China Coal Energy (Buy) with EPS estimates of 1.46 for 2024A and a PE ratio of 9.40 - China Shenhua (Buy) with EPS estimates of 2.95 for 2024A and a PE ratio of 14.40 - Jinko Coal (Buy) with EPS estimates of 1.68 for 2024A and a PE ratio of 9.00 - Electric Power Energy (Buy) with EPS estimates of 2.38 for 2024A and a PE ratio of 8.70 - Yancoal Energy (Buy) with EPS estimates of 1.44 for 2024A and a PE ratio of 10.20 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [13][14]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price has surged by 104 CNY/ton in just one month, reaching 809 CNY/ton, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [1][8]. - The report emphasizes a "stop-and-go" upward trend in coal prices, suggesting that any increase will not be linear but will involve periods of stabilization and correction [1][8]. - The demand for coal is expected to rise seasonally with the onset of heating in northern regions, while supply remains limited due to safety inspections and production constraints [1][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The coal sector has seen a significant recovery, with the coal index rising by 4.43% recently, outperforming the broader market [2][80]. - The report notes a stark contrast in performance, with the coal sector previously lagging behind other sectors earlier in the year [2]. Price Dynamics - The report highlights that the coal price is influenced by three main factors: production cuts, low port inventories, and strong seasonal demand, which collectively catalyze rapid price increases [15][39]. - As of November 7, 2025, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports reached a new high of 809 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 39 CNY/ton [9][39]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that coal production has been constrained due to regulatory measures and safety inspections, leading to a continuous decline in output over the past three months [5][10]. - The demand for coal has exceeded expectations due to extreme weather conditions, which have significantly increased electricity consumption [5][10]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on high-quality stocks in the coal sector, particularly those with strong fundamentals and growth potential, while also considering second-tier stocks as coal prices continue to rise [6][14]. - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others that are expected to benefit from the ongoing price increases and market dynamics [14][6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the REITs industry Core Insights - The C-REITs secondary market is under pressure, with the C-REITs total market capitalization approximately 220.6 billion yuan and an average market cap of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT as of November 7 [3][13] - The C-REITs total return index has increased by 7.61% year-to-date, while the C-REITs closing index has risen by 2.77% [2][11] - The report highlights three main investment strategies for REITs: focusing on policy themes and quality undervalued projects, recognizing the market's acknowledgment of weak-cycle assets, and paying attention to original rights holders with ample asset reserves [6] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The C-REITs total return index fell by 0.40% this week, closing at 1,041.5 points, while the C-REITs closing index decreased by 0.42%, closing at 811.5 points [1][11] - Year-to-date, the C-REITs total return index has increased by 7.61%, ranking fifth among various indices [2][11] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs showed a downward trend, with 33 REITs rising and 42 falling this week, resulting in an average decline of 0.73% [3][13] - The best-performing sectors this week were ecological and municipal water conservancy REITs, while industrial park and logistics REITs experienced a pullback [3][13] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with the top three being 华夏中国交建 REIT (9.7%), 平安广州广河 REIT (9.3%), and 易方达广开产园 REIT (8.4%) [5] - Price-to-NAV ratios range from 0.7 to 1.8, with the lowest being 华夏中国交建 REIT at 0.7 [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on REITs in a low-interest-rate environment expected in 2025, emphasizing the importance of quality projects and the potential for recovery in undervalued assets [6] - It also highlights the need to consider asset resilience and market prices when planning investments [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the bond market is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment and recovery, with slight increases in interest rates across various maturities following a rapid decline in rates the previous week [1][10]. - The report highlights that the fundamental data does not present a clear signal for the bond market to adjust, with demand still under pressure despite a slight recovery in CPI and PPI growth rates [2][11]. - It is noted that the adjustments in the bond market since the third quarter are primarily driven by institutional behavior rather than fundamental or liquidity factors, with a significant reduction in bond fund positions due to increased risk appetite in the equity market [3][15]. Group 2 - The recovery in the bond market since October is largely attributed to non-bank institutions replenishing their positions, while the participation of banks and other institutional investors remains limited due to profit-taking pressures and regulatory constraints [4][19]. - The report suggests that the impact of bank regulatory pressures will be more evident in the early to mid-fourth quarter, as banks prepare for asset allocation for the upcoming year [5][20]. - Overall, the report concludes that the bond market will continue to recover amidst fluctuations, with expectations for smoother declines in interest rates towards the end of the fourth quarter, particularly for the 10-year government bond yield [6][24].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The perovskite photovoltaic technology is advancing towards large-scale commercialization, with significant milestones achieved in the supply chain and technology breakthroughs [1][14] - The offshore wind power sector is expected to accelerate, particularly benefiting companies in Jiangsu's offshore wind industry chain [2][16] - The hydrogen energy sector is encouraged to utilize green hydrogen in coal chemical projects, with a focus on developing large-scale photovoltaic bases in coal-producing areas [3][20] - The energy storage market is seeing competitive bidding with a range of prices, indicating a growing demand for energy storage solutions [3][21][26] - The electric vehicle sector is witnessing a surge in long-term supply agreements for electrolyte products, reflecting a shift in supply-demand dynamics [4][30] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation 1.1 Photovoltaics - The world's largest commercial perovskite photovoltaic module has been released, marking a significant step towards commercialization [1][14] - Key developments include the successful production of large-sized perovskite modules and the domestic production of TCO conductive film glass [1][15] - Focus areas include supply-side reform opportunities, long-term growth potential from new technologies, and industrialization opportunities in perovskite technology [1][15] 1.2 Wind Power & Grid - A significant green electricity direct connection plan has been issued in Jiangsu, expected to boost offshore wind development [2][16] - The approval of the Panshi ultra-high voltage AC project is anticipated to enhance the wind power sector's infrastructure [2][17] - Key companies to watch include Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Mingyang Smart Energy [2][19] 1.3 Hydrogen & Energy Storage - The National Energy Administration encourages the integration of coal and new energy, promoting large-scale photovoltaic projects in coal areas [3][20] - Energy storage bidding shows a range of prices, indicating a competitive market with significant project scales [3][21][26] - Companies to focus on include Sungrow Power Supply, Aters, and other leading energy storage firms [3][29] 2. New Energy Vehicles - Tianci Materials has signed long-term supply agreements for nearly 1.6 million tons of electrolyte, indicating a robust demand forecast [4][30] - The total locked-in electrolyte supply has exceeded 3 million tons, reflecting a strategic reserve against future capacity expansions [4][30] - Key companies to monitor include Tianci Materials, Hunan Youneng, and Enjie Co. [4][30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, including Huicheng Environmental and GaoNeng Environment [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the "carbon neutrality" initiative, highlighting the government's focus on non-fossil energy sources and waste resource utilization, which opens up opportunities for companies in resource recycling and environmental monitoring [1][16]. - The newly implemented "Ecological Environment Monitoring Regulations" is expected to benefit the environmental monitoring industry by ensuring accurate data collection and penalizing data falsification [17][24]. - The environmental sector has shown strong performance, outperforming the broader market, with significant gains in various sub-sectors [28]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - The report discusses the release of the "China's Action on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" white paper, which outlines the country's commitment to carbon neutrality and emphasizes the development of non-fossil energy sources [9][16]. - The report highlights the issuance of the "Ecological Environment Monitoring Regulations," which mandates companies to install monitoring equipment and ensure data accuracy [17][24]. - It notes that the current macroeconomic environment, characterized by low interest rates, favors investments in high-dividend and growth-oriented assets [2][24]. Market Performance - The environmental sector has outperformed the market, with a reported increase of 6.38% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.08% [28]. - Specific sub-sectors such as energy conservation and air quality management have shown notable gains, while monitoring and water treatment have had mixed results [28]. Key Companies - Huicheng Environmental is recognized for its focus on hazardous waste projects and its innovative technology in plastic recycling, which is expected to drive future growth [25]. - GaoNeng Environment is highlighted for its comprehensive environmental services and strong project pipeline, positioning it as a leader in the hazardous waste management sector [25]. - Hongcheng Environment is noted for its consistent performance and high dividend yield, making it an attractive investment option [25].