证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 环保 标准加强倒逼绿色转型，节能监测有望受益 绿色协同转型要点指明行业方向，环保领域立法严明绿色发展。1、中央 网信办等十部门印发《2025 年数字化绿色化协同转型发展工作要点》。文 件围绕"数字化绿色化协同转型"主线，从数字产业低碳化、传统行业数 字化赋能、双化融合创新等维度提出系统性要求。政策明确要求各行业加 快制定技术标准、完善监测机制、落实财税支持，并通过试点示范形成可 复制的转型路径，倒逼企业增强在节能工艺改进、低碳技术研发及循环经 济模式创新上的资源投入，传统高耗能电力、冶金、石化等行业数字化解 决方案如工业互联网平台、智能监测系统、节能装备供应商有望受益。建 议重点关注在绿色工艺研发、工业污染治理设备领域具备领先优势的企 业，如龙净环保、碧水源。2、国务院办公厅印发《国务院 2025 年度立法 工作计划》的通知。文件聚焦环保立法升级，绿色发展迈入强监管周期。 国务院 2025 年度立法工作计划明确提出以绿色发展为核心，推动多项环 保领域法律法规的制定与修订，涉及水资源管理、生态监测、城市供水、 自然保护等多个 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [5] Core Views - Tencent's Q1 2025 revenue reached 180 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a gross margin improvement from 53% to 56% driven by high-margin businesses such as WeChat Video Accounts and local games [1][3] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 61.3 billion RMB, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth [1][3] - The report projects Tencent's revenue for 2025-2027 to be 735.8 billion, 801.6 billion, and 862.9 billion RMB respectively, with non-GAAP net profits of approximately 256.6 billion, 286.8 billion, and 314.9 billion RMB [3][12] Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services revenue for the quarter was 92.1 billion RMB, up 17% year-on-year, with local game revenue at 42.9 billion RMB, a 24% increase [1][2] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 54.9 billion RMB, a 5% increase year-on-year [1] - Advertising revenue reached 31.9 billion RMB, growing 20% year-on-year, primarily driven by strong demand for Video Accounts and Mini Programs [1][2] Business Growth Drivers - The gaming business showed strong growth, with both local and international game revenues exceeding 20% growth, driven by popular titles [2] - Advertising growth was supported by AI-driven technology upgrades, significantly improving ad click-through rates [2] - Tencent's commitment to AI development is evident with a capital expenditure of 27.5 billion RMB and a 21% increase in R&D expenses [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Tencent's total revenue to grow at a CAGR of approximately 10% from 2023 to 2027, with a projected gross margin improvement [12] - Non-GAAP EPS is expected to rise from 16.4 RMB in 2023 to 34.0 RMB by 2027 [4][12] - The report anticipates a decrease in the P/E ratio from 28.6 in 2023 to 13.8 in 2027, indicating potential valuation improvement [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [4][7]. Core Insights - Alibaba reported total revenue of 2364.54 billion RMB for FY2025 Q4, representing a year-on-year growth of 7%. The non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was approximately 300 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on accelerating growth in e-commerce and cloud services while maintaining strong investments in AI technology [3]. Summary by Business Segment - **Taobao and Tmall Group**: Revenue reached 1014 billion RMB, a 9% increase year-on-year, with adjusted EBITA of approximately 417 billion RMB, up 8% [2]. - **International Commerce**: Revenue was 336 billion RMB, showing a 22% year-on-year growth, although adjusted EBITA was -36 billion RMB, narrowing by 13% [2]. - **Alibaba Cloud**: Revenue grew by 18% to 301 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA increasing by 69% to approximately 24 billion RMB [2][3]. - **Cainiao**: Revenue decreased by 12% to 216 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA at -6 billion RMB, narrowing by 55% [2]. - **Local Services**: Revenue increased by 10% to 161 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA of -23 billion RMB, narrowing by 28% [2]. - **Digital Entertainment**: Revenue was 55.5 billion RMB, up 12%, with adjusted EBITA turning positive, primarily driven by profitability from Youku [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are estimated at 11185 billion RMB, 12360 billion RMB, and 13551 billion RMB respectively. Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be 1613 billion RMB, 1845 billion RMB, and 2081 billion RMB for the same periods [4][6]. - The report anticipates a price target of 164 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 168 USD for the US stock based on a 10x P/E for core e-commerce and a 30x P/E for Alibaba Cloud [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [4][7]. Core Insights - Alibaba's total revenue for FY2025 Q4 reached 2364.54 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 7%. The non-GAAP net profit for the same quarter was approximately 300 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing accelerated growth in e-commerce and cloud services, with a strong commitment to AI investments [1][3]. Revenue Breakdown by Business Segment - **Taobao and Tmall Group**: Revenue of 1014 billion RMB, up 9% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately 417 billion RMB, up 8% [2]. - **International Commerce**: Revenue of 336 billion RMB, a 22% increase year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately -36 billion RMB, narrowing by 13% [2]. - **Alibaba Cloud**: Revenue of 301 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately 24 billion RMB, a 69% increase [2][3]. - **Cainiao**: Revenue of 216 billion RMB, down 12% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately -6 billion RMB, narrowing by 55% [2]. - **Local Services**: Revenue of 161 billion RMB, up 10% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately -23 billion RMB, narrowing by 28% [2]. - **Digital Entertainment**: Revenue of 55.5 billion RMB, up 12% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA turned positive, mainly driven by profitability from Youku [2]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 11185 billion RMB, 12360 billion RMB, and 13551 billion RMB respectively. Non-GAAP net profits are expected to be 1613 billion RMB, 1845 billion RMB, and 2081 billion RMB for the same periods [4][6]. - The report anticipates a price target of 164 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 168 USD for the US stock based on a 10x P/E for core e-commerce and a 30x P/E for Alibaba Cloud [4]. Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Alibaba's capital expenditure for the quarter was approximately 246 billion RMB, reflecting the company's unwavering commitment to AI technology and product development [3]. - The report indicates that Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth is expected to continue accelerating in the upcoming quarters due to strong demand for AI-related products across various industries [3]. Key Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including revenue growth rates, non-GAAP net profit projections, and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the upcoming fiscal years [6][15]. - The projected EPS for FY2026 is 8.4 RMB, increasing to 10.9 RMB by FY2028 [6][15]. Conclusion - The report highlights Alibaba's robust performance in e-commerce and cloud services, alongside a strong focus on AI investments, positioning the company for continued growth in the coming years [1][3][4].

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 05 19 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 我国服务消费：现状、国际比较与发力方向 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】高频半月观— 4 月以来二手房销售明显转弱——20250518 【宏观】我国服务消费：现状、国际比较与发力方向——20250517 【策略研究】当前对美出口链修复情况如何？——20250518 【金融工程】上证指数、上证 50 确认日线级别上涨——20250518 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：信用指标弱化，拥挤度分数下行—— 20250517 【固定收益】再论资金分歧——20250518 【固定收益】资金波动，月内冲击高点或已过——流动性和机构行为跟 踪——20250517 【银行】本周聚焦——各家银行拨备计提充足程度如何？——20250518 【区块链】稳定币的起源与野望：星火燎原，渐入佳境——20250517 【汽车】浙江荣泰（603119.SH）-云母龙头守正创新，收购 KGG 布局机 器人丝杆——20250517 ◼ 研究视点 【基础化工】关注超高分子量聚乙烯、复合材料和涨价化工品—— 20250518 【环保】标准加强倒逼绿色转型， ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 建筑材料 预计需求延续旺季不旺，淡季不淡 2025 年 5 月 12 日至 5 月 16 日建筑材料板块（SW）下跌 0.49%，其中 水泥（SW）下跌 0.96%，玻璃制造（SW）下跌 0.88%，玻纤制造（SW） 上涨 2.01%，装修建材（SW）下跌 0.92%，本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益-0.45%。本期建筑材料板块（SW）资金净流入额为 0.76 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 根据 wind 统计，2025 年 4 月地方政府债总发行量 6932.91 亿元，发行金 额同比 2024 年 4 月增长 101.6%，截至目前，2025 年一般债发行规模 0.65 万亿元，同比-0.04 万亿元，专项债发行规模 3.18 万亿元，同比+1.71 万亿元。化债下加码政府财政压力有望减轻，企业资产负债表也存在修复 的空间，市政工程类项目有望加快推进，市政管网及减隔震实物工作量有 望加快落地，关注龙泉股份、青龙管业、中国联塑、震安科技。玻璃需求 季节性环比改善，但供需仍有矛盾：2025 年后玻璃需求持续下滑，3 ...

光伏：硅片价格继续下行，供给侧积极减产，关注后续价格企稳时机。根据硅业分 会信息，本周，N 型 G10L 单晶硅片成交均价在 0.95 元/片，周环比跌幅 5.94%； N 型 G12R 单晶硅片成交均价在 1.10 元/片，周环比跌幅 1.79%；N 型 G12 单晶 硅片成交均价在 1.30 元/片，周环比跌幅 3.70%。本周，由于下游需求疲软，供给 侧开始积极减产，目前硅片行业开工率降至 55%左右。硅料方面，目前在产企业 数量减少至 11 家。整体供给侧减产积极，关注后续价格修企稳时机。核心关注两 大方向：1）供给侧偏刚性、后续需求复苏后价格弹性更大的硅料和玻璃，核心关 注协鑫科技、通威股份、福莱特等。2）新技术背景下带来的中长期成长性机会， 核心关注爱旭股份、聚和材料等。 风电&电网：华润汕尾红海湾五海风迎来风机招标，Q2 海风密集交付。5 月 13 日，华润汕尾红海湾五海上风电项目风力发电机组（含塔筒）货物及服务启动招 标。5 月 15 日，巨大的风机叶片在江苏黄海海域与机舱实现精准对接，标志着三 峡江苏大丰 800MW 海上风电项目首台风力发电机组顺利完成吊装。5 月 16 日， 天顺风能发布 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Chemical [4] Core Views - The domestic production of adiponitrile is accelerating, and the demand for civilian silk is expected to be released, indicating a broad growth space in the future. The nylon 66 (PA66) is one of the most widely used nylon products, with advantages such as high strength, good wear resistance, and excellent lubrication. However, the domestic demand for nylon 66 has not been fully released due to the influence of domestic civilian wire drawing technology. Currently, the application ratio of nylon 66 in civilian silk is low (13%). If breakthroughs in civilian silk technology are achieved, it is expected to partially replace the nylon 6 market [12][19]. Summary by Sections Production and Cost Analysis - The current production cost of adiponitrile is approximately 11,600 yuan/ton, with the main raw materials being butadiene, natural gas, and liquid ammonia. As of May 16, 2025, the prices are 11,000 yuan/ton for butadiene, 3.91 yuan/cubic meter for natural gas, and 2,430 yuan/ton for liquid ammonia [2][16][17]. Profitability and Financial Projections - The profitability of the adiponitrile project is expected to be good after reaching full production, with high profit elasticity anticipated. The report estimates the break-even price for the product under different capacity utilization scenarios. At 150% design capacity utilization (30,000 tons/year), the break-even price is 17,700 yuan/ton; at 100% (20,000 tons/year), it is 19,000 yuan/ton; and at 50% (10,000 tons/year), it is 22,900 yuan/ton. The average price of domestic adiponitrile since May is approximately 22,200 yuan/ton, close to the break-even line at 50% utilization [3][19]. Future Earnings Estimates - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 6.4 billion, 7.3 billion, and 8.1 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.7%, 13.4%, and 11.2%. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 7.5, 6.6, and 6.0 for the respective years [19]. Investment Recommendation - Given the significant earnings elasticity of the company's industrial projects, accelerated execution of overseas orders, benefits from the acceleration of coal chemical investments, high profitability quality, ample cash flow, and potential for increased dividends, the report continues to recommend a "Buy" rating [19].

择时雷达六面图：信用指标弱化，拥挤度分数下行 择时雷达六面图：基于多维视角的择时框架。权益市场的表现受到多维度 指标因素的共同影响，我们尝试从流动性、经济面、估值面、资金面、技 术面、拥挤度选取二十一个指标对市场进行刻画，并将其概括为"估值性 价比"、"宏观基本面"、"资金&趋势"、"拥挤度&反转"四大类，从而生成 [-1,1]之间的综合择时分数。 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 17 年 月 日 量化分析报告 本周综合打分。本周市场的估值性价比、宏观基本面、资金&趋势、拥挤 度&反转这四个维度分数均有所下降，综合打分位于[-1,1]之间，当前的综 合打分为 0.18 分，整体为中性偏多观点。当前六面图各个维度的观点如 下： 流动性。本周货币强度、信用方向、信用强度发出看空信号，货币方向 发出看多信号，当前流动性得分为-0.50 分，综合来看发出看空信号。 经济面。本周增长方向、通胀方向与通胀强度指标发出看多信号，当前 经济面得分为 0.75 分，综合来看发出看多信号。 估值面。本周席勒 ERP、PB 与 AIAE 指标的打分均下降，当前市场的 估值面得分为 0.28 分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for companies to strengthen their internal capabilities while actively seeking new growth avenues. It highlights three main investment themes in the liquor segment: leading brands, sustained dividends, and recovery beneficiaries [1]. - In the consumer goods sector, the focus is on identifying high-growth and strong recovery opportunities, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their growth potential and market positioning [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Segment - Leading brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu are expected to continue gaining market share [1]. - Companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinshiyuan are highlighted for their high certainty in regional markets, while flexible stocks benefiting from recovery include Luzhou Laojiao and Shui Jing Fang [1]. Consumer Goods Segment - Companies like Salted Fish, Haoxiangni, and Dongpeng Beverage are noted for their high growth potential, while Qingdao Beer and Haitian Flavor Industry are expected to benefit from policy support and recovery improvements [1]. - The report mentions that companies are actively exploring new growth curves while maintaining their operational advantages [1]. Company-Specific Insights - Unified Enterprises China is launching new products in both beverages and food, indicating a stable operational performance [2]. - Haitian Flavor Industry is set to benefit from domestic demand stimulation and has clear overseas expansion goals, positioning it well for future growth [2]. - Good Idea is expanding its product categories while improving its core business, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [2]. - Zhou Hei Ya is focusing on enhancing store efficiency and exploring new markets, which may lead to a new growth trajectory [3]. - Hengshun Vinegar Industry is strengthening brand marketing and expanding distribution channels, which is expected to support steady growth [3]. - Qiaqia Food is under short-term cost pressure but is innovating in product categories to explore new opportunities [3]. - Guyue Longshan is increasing product prices and focusing on cross-industry innovations, aiming for sales growth of over 6% in 2025 [6].