Policy Highlights - The focus of recent policies is on "grabbing the start" for 2026, with five key areas of emphasis, including early policy implementation and support for new industries[2] - The 2026 "Two New" policy was released on December 30, 2025, aiming for a smoother subsidy rhythm, with total funding expected to be lower than the 300 billion yuan allocated in 2025[2][8] - The Ministry of Finance announced a new tax policy for personal housing sales, reducing the VAT rate from 5% to 3% for properties sold within two years, and exempting properties sold after two years in major cities[8][33] Economic Measures - The State Council emphasized the importance of the national water network construction as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, with significant investment and multi-department collaboration required[3][15] - The central bank's fourth-quarter monetary policy meeting indicated a focus on maintaining low financing costs and enhancing policy effectiveness, with potential adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates in Q1 2026[5][24] Local Initiatives - Local governments are proactively implementing measures to support service consumption and financial technology, with provinces like Zhejiang and Guangdong taking the lead in economic recovery efforts[9][36] - Beijing has relaxed housing purchase restrictions, which may prompt other major cities to follow suit, aiming to stabilize the real estate market[11][36] Industry Policies - The China Securities Regulatory Commission finalized the public fund sales fee reform, which is expected to benefit investors by over 50 billion yuan annually[7][25] - The "old for new" policy for 2026 will see a shift from broad subsidies to more targeted support, with total funding likely to be around 250 billion yuan, down from 300 billion yuan in 2025[2][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to recover after the holiday. The mild implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations and the alleviation of banks' institutional indicator pressure may increase the allocation power and drive the bond market to pick up [5][8][14]. - In January, the bond market may remain volatile under supply shocks. The increased supply of government bonds and the potential credit surge at the beginning of the year may crowd out the allocation power and increase capital demand, leading to greater capital fluctuations [5][14]. - After late January, the recovery of the bond market may be smoother. The impact of supply is rhythmic rather than trend - setting, and the overall financing demand is not strong [5][14]. - It is still believed that the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to reach a new low in the first half of the year [5][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Pre - holiday Bond Market Performance - In the last week before the holiday, the bond market weakened again, with interest - rate bonds falling and credit bonds strengthening. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose by 1.0bps and 4.4bps to 1.85% and 2.27% respectively, and short - end interest rates also increased. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - second - tier capital bonds declined slightly, and the yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit dropped 1.0bps to 1.63% [1][8] Factors Contributing to Post - holiday Bond Market Recovery - The new public - fund fee regulations implemented on the last day before the holiday are significantly milder than the draft for comments. It gives partial exemptions on bond - fund redemption fees, eases concerns about the new redemption rules, relieves the redemption pressure on bond funds, and helps the bond market recover [1][8][9] - In the new year, the pressure on banks' indicators eases. According to the final revised document of the Basel framework SPR31, the parallel upward shift in the bank book interest - rate shock scenario is adjusted from 250bps to 225bps, and banks will also get new indicator spaces at the beginning of the year, with the indicator pressure seasonally decreasing. This will enhance the overall allocation power and assist the bond - market recovery [2][9] Factors Causing Pressure on the January Bond Market - Supply - side factors: The issuance of government bonds will start in the new year. The 26 regions that have announced their issuance plans plan to issue 2.1 trillion yuan in the first quarter, lower than the 2.5 - trillion - yuan plan in 2025, but the issuance rhythm is more front - loaded, with 8095 billion yuan planned for January, compared with 3713 billion yuan in January 2025. Also, a 30 - year Treasury bond will be newly issued on January 14th, and a 10 - year Treasury bond will be re - issued on January 9th [2][10] - Credit factors: Credit may surge at the beginning of the year. The proportion of first - quarter credit in the whole - year credit increased from 36.2% in 2020 to 59.8% in 2025, and that of January increased from 17.0% in 2020 to 31.4% in 2025. It may rise to 35% or higher in 2026. The concentrated credit release at the beginning of the year may squeeze bank funds and reduce the allocation power to the bond market. It may also increase capital demand and cause greater short - term capital fluctuations if the central bank fails to inject enough funds [3][11] Rhythmic Nature of Supply Impact - The possible surge in January's credit and social financing is not due to an increase in financing demand. The credit - demand index in the third quarter of 2025 was 52.8%, remaining at a low level for two consecutive quarters, and current credit demand is not strong [4][13] - In 2026, fiscal expansion will be moderate, and the year - on - year increase in government bonds will be significantly lower than in 2025. The concentrated issuance in January means less issuance space later, so the impact is rhythmic rather than trend - setting, and the impact on the bond market will gradually subside after the peak in late January [4][13][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Views - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to remain sluggish, with new home transactions down by 15.8% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions show a slight increase of 3.9% [11][22] - The report emphasizes that the policy environment is expected to become more stringent, similar to the conditions seen in 2008 and 2014, indicating that the current policy adjustments are still in progress [4] - The report suggests that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, making it a valuable asset class for investment [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to perform better in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report highlights a focus on first-tier and select second-tier cities for investment, as these areas are likely to see better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In 2025, the cumulative new home transaction volume in 30 sample cities reached 98.217 million square meters, a decrease of 15.8% year-on-year [11] - First-tier cities accounted for 26.191 million square meters, down 12.0%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 15.6% to 49.040 million square meters [11] - December 2025 saw a significant drop in new home transactions, with a total of 9.679 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.0% [2][11] Second-Hand Home Transactions - The total area of second-hand home transactions in 2025 was 103.989 million square meters, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22] - First-tier cities recorded a total of 43.287 million square meters in second-hand home transactions, up 4.4% year-on-year [22] Market Performance - The report notes that the real estate index decreased by 0.7% this week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.10 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 sectors [34] - The report identifies a total of 28 stocks that increased in value this week, while 82 stocks experienced declines [34] Credit Bond Issuance - In the week of December 29 to January 4, only one credit bond was issued by real estate companies, totaling 250 million yuan, a decrease of 44.82 million yuan from the previous week [45]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a structural growth in the global photovoltaic (PV) market, with domestic installations expected to reach 270-300 GW in 2025, driven by a policy-induced rush in installations [1][2] - Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are identified as key growth drivers, contributing significantly to global PV growth, with expectations of 570-630 GW of new installations worldwide [1][26] - The report anticipates a shift in the industry focus from scale expansion to efficiency and value creation, influenced by new policies and market dynamics [2][34] Group 2: Demand Analysis - Domestic demand for PV installations in China showed a 39% year-on-year increase, with a total of 252.87 GW installed from January to October 2025 [11][24] - The report notes a significant surge in installations during May 2025, with a record monthly addition of 92.92 GW, driven by new policy announcements [11][24] - Emerging markets are projected to contribute over 223 GW of new installations in 2025, with notable growth in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America [26][51] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The report discusses a supply-side cleanup in the PV industry, with policies aimed at curbing low-price competition and tightening energy consumption standards [2][34] - The price of polysilicon has rebounded by nearly 50% since July 2025, indicating a recovery in the supply chain and improved profitability for leading companies [2][34] - Technological advancements, such as bifacial cell technology and perovskite solar cells, are expected to enhance efficiency and drive down costs, benefiting upstream material and equipment manufacturers [2][6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three key investment opportunities within the PV industry: price elasticity recovery, new technology adoption, and the commercialization of perovskite solar cells [6][7] - Companies with cost advantages in various segments of the supply chain are recommended for investment, including GCL-Poly Energy, Tongwei Co., and LONGi Green Energy [6][7] - The commercialization of perovskite technology is highlighted as a significant opportunity, with companies like JinkoSolar and LONGi benefiting from this trend [6][7]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Timing Radar Hexagon **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates equity market performance through a multi-dimensional framework, incorporating liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, capital flows, technical trends, and crowding indicators. These dimensions are summarized into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macroeconomic Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal," generating a composite timing score within the range of [-1, 1][1][6][8] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select 21 indicators across six dimensions (liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, capital flows, technical trends, and crowding)[1][6] 2. Aggregate these indicators into four categories: - Valuation Cost-Effectiveness - Macroeconomic Fundamentals - Capital & Trend - Crowding & Reversal 3. Normalize the composite score to fall within the range of [-1, 1][6][8] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of market conditions, offering a balanced perspective across multiple dimensions[6][8] Model Backtesting Results - **Timing Radar Hexagon**: - Current composite score: -0.11 (down from -0.01 last week)[6][8] - Liquidity score: 0.25 (neutral to slightly positive)[6][8] - Economic fundamentals score: -0.50 (neutral to slightly negative)[6][8] - Valuation score: -0.51 (neutral to slightly negative)[6][8] - Capital flows score: 1.00 (positive)[6][8] - Technical trends score: 0.00 (neutral)[6][8] - Crowding score: -0.75 (neutral to slightly negative)[6][8] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Liquidity Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Monetary Direction Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures the direction of monetary policy using central bank policy rates and short-term market rates. A positive factor value indicates monetary easing, while a negative value indicates tightening[10] **Construction Process**: - Calculate the average change in policy rates and short-term rates over the past 90 days - Assign a score of 1 if the factor > 0 (easing), and -1 if < 0 (tightening)[10] **Evaluation**: Effectively captures monetary policy direction[10] 2. **Factor Name**: Monetary Intensity Factor **Construction Idea**: Based on the "interest rate corridor" concept, measures the deviation of short-term market rates from policy rates[12] **Construction Process**: - Compute deviation = DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1 - Smooth and z-score the deviation - Assign a score of 1 if the factor < -1.5 standard deviations (easing), and -1 if > 1.5 standard deviations (tightening)[12] **Evaluation**: Captures the intensity of monetary policy changes[12] 3. **Factor Name**: Credit Direction Factor **Construction Idea**: Reflects the trend in credit transmission to the real economy using long-term loan data[15] **Construction Process**: - Calculate the year-over-year growth of long-term loans over the past 12 months - Assign a score of 1 if the factor shows an upward trend compared to three months ago, and -1 if downward[15] **Evaluation**: Tracks credit trends effectively[15] 4. **Factor Name**: Credit Intensity Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures whether credit data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[19] **Construction Process**: - Compute (new RMB loans - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation - Assign a score of 1 if the factor > 1.5 standard deviations (positive surprise), and -1 if < -1.5 standard deviations (negative surprise)[19] **Evaluation**: Captures credit surprises effectively[19] Economic Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Growth Direction Factor **Construction Idea**: Based on PMI data, measures the trend in economic growth[23] **Construction Process**: - Calculate the 12-month average and year-over-year change of PMI data - Assign a score of 1 if the factor shows an upward trend compared to three months ago, and -1 if downward[23] **Evaluation**: Tracks economic growth trends effectively[23] 2. **Factor Name**: Growth Intensity Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures whether economic growth data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[26] **Construction Process**: - Compute (PMI - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation - Assign a score of 1 if the factor > 1.5 standard deviations (positive surprise), and -1 if < -1.5 standard deviations (negative surprise)[26] **Evaluation**: Captures growth surprises effectively[26] 3. **Factor Name**: Inflation Direction Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures the trend in inflation using CPI and PPI data[29] **Construction Process**: - Compute 0.5 × smoothed CPI year-over-year + 0.5 × raw PPI year-over-year - Assign a score of 1 if the factor shows a downward trend compared to three months ago, and -1 if upward[29] **Evaluation**: Tracks inflation trends effectively[29] 4. **Factor Name**: Inflation Intensity Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures whether inflation data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[32] **Construction Process**: - Compute (CPI or PPI - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation - Assign a score of 1 if the factor < -1.5 standard deviations (negative surprise), and -1 if > 1.5 standard deviations (positive surprise)[32] **Evaluation**: Captures inflation surprises effectively[32] Valuation Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Shiller ERP **Construction Idea**: Adjusts earnings for inflation and calculates the equity risk premium (ERP) relative to 10-year government bond yields[35] **Construction Process**: - Compute Shiller PE = inflation-adjusted average earnings over the past 6 years - Calculate ERP = 1/Shiller PE - 10-year bond yield - Normalize using a 6-year z-score[35] **Evaluation**: Provides a robust measure of equity valuation[35] 2. **Factor Name**: PB **Construction Idea**: Measures valuation using the price-to-book ratio[38] **Construction Process**: - Compute PB × (-1) - Normalize using a 6-year z-score, truncating at ±1.5 standard deviations[38] **Evaluation**: Tracks valuation effectively[38] 3. **Factor Name**: AIAE **Construction Idea**: Measures aggregate investor allocation to equities, reflecting market risk appetite[41] **Construction Process**: - Compute AIAE = total market cap of CSI All Share Index / (total market cap + total debt) - Normalize using a 6-year z-score[41] **Evaluation**: Captures market risk appetite effectively[41] Capital Flow Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Margin Trading Increment **Construction Idea**: Measures the trend in leveraged funds using margin trading data[44] **Construction Process**: - Compute the 120-day average increment of margin trading balances - Assign a score of 1 if the 120-day increment > 240-day increment, and -1 otherwise[44] **Evaluation**: Tracks leveraged fund trends effectively[44] 2. **Factor Name**: Turnover Trend **Construction Idea**: Measures market activity using turnover data[47] **Construction Process**: - Compute log turnover moving average distance = ma120/ma240 - 1 - Assign a score of 1 if max(10, 30, 60-day) > 0, and -1 otherwise[47] **Evaluation**: Captures market activity effectively[47] 3. **Factor Name**: China Sovereign CDS Spread **Construction Idea**: Reflects foreign investors' perception of China's credit risk[50] **Construction Process**: - Compute the 20-day difference of smoothed CDS spreads - Assign a score of 1 if the difference < 0, and -1 otherwise[50] **Evaluation**: Tracks foreign investor sentiment effectively[50] 4. **Factor Name**: Overseas Risk Aversion Index **Construction Idea**: Captures global risk appetite using the Citi RAI Index[53] **Construction Process**: - Compute the 20-day difference of smoothed RAI - Assign a score of 1 if the difference < 0, and -1 otherwise[53] **Evaluation**: Tracks global risk appetite effectively[53] Technical Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Price Trend **Construction Idea**: Measures market trends using moving average distances[56] **Construction Process**:

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2026 01 04 年 月 日 量化周报 上证指数再次确认日线级别上涨 上证指数再次确认日线级别上涨。节前（12.29-12.31），大盘横盘震荡， 上证指数全周收涨 0.13%。在此背景下，上证指数、汽车、农林牧渔迎来 日线级别上涨。尽管我们有各种理由认为市场的震荡调整不够充分，比如： 1、目前只有科创 50 确认日线级别下跌，且上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、 创业板指、深证成指已开始不创新高，M 头形态已现，未来下跌的概率高； 2、目前仍有 16 个行业处于日线上涨，而且有色、石油石化、化工、建材、 轻工、电力设备及新能源均处于超涨状态。但我们不能用概率替代事实， 事实是：1、上证指数、中小 100 已于节前确认了日线级别上涨，而且上 证指数的上涨只走了 1 浪结构；2、非银、电子、汽车、机械、农林牧渔 于近期重新迎来日线级别上涨，而且非银、农林牧渔上涨只走了 1 浪结构。 因此，我们认为市场节后将迎来开门红，日线上涨将会持续一段时间。中 期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、 科创 50 纷纷确认周 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Insights - The annual negotiated electricity price has been established, leading to a significant drop in trading prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang for 2026, with a decrease of 16.5% and 16.4% respectively. The new energy price subsidy in January is at a maximum of 6.17 cents per kilowatt-hour [3][13] - The electricity market is undergoing a restructuring with the full entry of new energy sources, which is expected to bring about a new equilibrium in electricity pricing sooner than anticipated [3] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors within the electricity industry, noting a general decline in stock prices for most listed companies in the power and utilities sector [6][63] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The average trading price for electricity in Jiangsu for 2026 is 344.19 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 16.5% year-on-year, while in Zhejiang it is 344.85 yuan per megawatt-hour, also down 16.4% [13] - The total transaction volume in Jiangsu's electricity market for 2026 is 272.481 billion kilowatt-hours, with a weighted average price of 344.19 yuan per megawatt-hour [13] - The report indicates that the electricity prices in 28 regions have been adjusted downwards, with reductions ranging from 0.65% to 24.68% [3][13] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points, up 0.13%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4629.94 points, down 0.59%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 3042.43 points, down 2.35%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.76 percentage points [6][63] - Most stocks in the power and utilities sector experienced declines, with notable drops in companies such as Guodian Power and Huaneng International [67] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend coal-fired power leaders and companies with stable electricity prices and coal-electric integration, such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Guodian Power [3] - It also recommends investing in flexible coal-fired power transformation leaders and companies in the wind and solar sectors, such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [3] - For the gas sector, it highlights quality leaders like Chengran and New Hope Energy, which are expected to recover profits while maintaining stable dividends [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Libat, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the nuclear power sector [5]. Core Insights - The nuclear power industry is expected to see a significant increase in construction investment, with an average of 64 billion yuan annually driven by new nuclear power station approvals [1][8]. - Modular construction techniques are being increasingly adopted in the third-generation nuclear power projects, which are anticipated to enhance construction efficiency and reduce costs [2][11]. - Libat is positioned as a leading player in the nuclear modular construction market, with expected incremental performance contributions of 460 million yuan from its nuclear business [3][14]. Summary by Sections Nuclear Power Investment Trends - The approval of new nuclear power stations is gradually increasing, with an expected average of 7.3 units approved annually from 2025 to 2035, leading to substantial construction investments [1][8]. - Each approved unit is estimated to require a total investment of 20 billion yuan, resulting in approximately 1,600 billion yuan in total investment if 8 units are constructed annually [1][8]. Modular Construction Developments - Modular construction is set to significantly reduce the construction period of nuclear power plants, with the civil engineering phase expected to take only 36 months [2][11]. - The adoption of integrated large modules in projects like the Ningde Phase II is a notable advancement, showcasing the potential for improved efficiency and safety in construction [3][14]. Company-Specific Insights - Libat has a strong technological reserve in the nuclear sector and has been proactive in developing its modular business, which is expected to yield substantial revenue growth [3][14]. - The company has secured contracts for significant projects, including a 230 million yuan contract for the Ningde Phase II project, indicating strong market demand and recognition [3][14].

Group 1 - The market outlook for January indicates a consensus on asset allocation trends, focusing on industrial catalysts while maintaining a trading mindset. The medium-term trend remains upward, supported by domestic and international monetary easing, with significant potential for household wealth entering the market. However, short-term market movements are driven by narratives, policy games, and industrial catalysts, with weak profit-related drivers [1][8]. - The investment strategy emphasizes a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, recommending investments in assets aligned with market consensus. Key areas of interest in technology include AI computing power, energy storage, and storage chips, while cyclical sectors should focus on intersections of anti-involution and price validation, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and steel [2][8]. Group 2 - The recommended stocks for January include: 1. Dongyangguang (600673.SH): Leveraging its fluorochemical capabilities, the company is advancing into liquid cooling and acquiring a leading AIDC player, with a blueprint for AI infrastructure emerging. The acquisition of Qinhuai Data is progressing, with a total transaction value of 28 billion RMB expected to be completed soon [3][9]. 2. Jinpan Technology (688676.SH): An overseas AIDC core supplier, the company has seen its overseas revenue share exceed 30% in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant growth in data center revenues [13][14]. 3. Yaopi Glass (600819.SH): The company is entering a harvest period for automotive glass, with TCO glass showing substantial growth potential. The transition to high-value products is evident, with a projected net profit growth of 26.2% over the next three years [16][17].

数字人民币 2.0 时代启幕：政策红利与科技创新赋能银行板块高质量发展 中国人民银行出台《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关 金融基础设施建设的行动方案》（以下简称《行动方案》），明确数字 人民币将从数字现金时代迈入数字存款货币时代 。 新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系于 2026 年 1 月 1 日正式启动实施。这一政策标志着数字人民币从现金型 1.0 版迈入存款货币型 2.0 版，核心变化是商业银行钱包内的数字人民币 由央行负债转变为商业银行负债，数字人民币具备价值尺度、价值储 增持（维持） 行业走势 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 2025-12 银行 沪深300 一、政策亮点：重构属性与机制，筑牢安全基础 《行动方案》的核心突破在于重构数字人民币的货币属性和运营机制。 最显著的变化是实名数字人民币钱包余额将按存款利率定价自律约定 计付利息，这意味着数字人民币从"电子零钱"转变为"数字存款"， 用户持有实名数字人民币钱包可获得与银行存款同等的安全保障（纳 入存款保险范畴）和利息收益。 政策同时明确两类监管要求： ...