证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2025 12 13 年 月 日 固定收益定期 资金平稳，存单政府债均显著净偿还——流动性和机构行为跟踪 资金整体平稳，价格小幅波动。本周资金价格小幅下降，本周 R001 收于 1.35%（前值 1.37%），DR001 收于 1.27%（前值 1.30%）。R007 收于 1.51%前值 1.50%），DR007 收于 1.47%前值 1.44%）。DR007 与 7 天 OMO 利差收于 6.91bp。6M 国股银票转贴利率收于 0.90%前值 0.81%）。 央行公开市场净投放资金，MLF 持续超额续作。本周央行逆回购投放 6685 亿元，逆回购到期 6638 亿元，合计净投放 47 亿元。此外，下周将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，净投放 2000 亿元，为连续七个月加量续做。 本周重要会议落地，国债收益率先下后上，市场情绪仍不稳定。本周债市 收益率先下后上，政治局会议、中央经济工作会议相继落地，货币政策转 向的担忧解除，利率震荡修复，但中央经济工作会议公告隔日，止盈情绪 发酵，长端回吐值一日涨幅，债市情绪仍偏谨慎。整体看，本周 1 年国债 收 ...

Group 1: Credit and Financing Overview - In November 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 390 billion, significantly lower than the expected 504.3 billion and the previous value of 220 billion, indicating a decrease of 190 billion year-on-year[1][3] - New social financing (社融) reached 2.49 trillion, exceeding expectations and seasonal trends, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion[2][9] - The growth rate of outstanding social financing remained stable at 8.5%, unchanged from the previous month[2][9] Group 2: Structural Insights - The household sector has been reducing leverage for two consecutive months, with both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans showing a year-on-year decline, reflecting weak consumption and real estate performance[3][7] - Corporate short-term loans increased by 110 billion year-on-year, while medium-to-long-term loans continued to decline, indicating ongoing pressure on corporate cash flow[8][9] - Government bond issuance decreased by 1.2 trillion year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed, suggesting some improvement in local government debt management[9] Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy Directions - The policy direction for 2026 is set to be proactive and expansionary, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the first quarter[4][5] - The central bank is expected to maintain a stance of "appropriate easing," utilizing various policy tools flexibly to support economic stability[4][5] - Key areas of focus include the impact of cross-year liquidity, the Federal Reserve's actions, and the effectiveness of short-term policy measures in the fourth quarter[5][6]

证券研究报告 | 年度策略 2025 12 12 年 月 日 A股2026年策略展望： 牛市从估值驱动到业绩驱动 分析师：杨柳 执业证书编号：S0680524010002 邮箱：yangliu3@gszq.com 分析师：王浩 执业证书编号：S0680524020001 邮箱：wanghao5@gszq.com 核心观点 打造极致专业与效率 2 • 回看2025年，A股市场于4月回踩至全年最低点后一路向上，沪指一举突破10年新高，背后是叙事的变化逐渐吸引增量资金入市，估 值驱动成为行情向上的主导力量：国内基本面预期改善叠加低利率"资产荒"驱动险资加码配置权益；AI发展进入全球共振阶段吸引 基金对AI算力与新能源加码配置、游资跟随买入助推行情；而大国博弈作为地缘方面最重要的叙事，引发了国家资本入市维稳市场以 及对资源品、国产替代投资情绪的高涨。 • 展望2026年，估值可能继续产生正向驱动，但强度边际弱化。海内外货币宽松的基调仍将延续，但外部降息与内部货币扩张的节奏尚 存变数，预计股市流动性的险资增量贡献仍有较强确定性，居民财富入市能否延续、强度如何都难以明确，同时宏观可见度不足，中 美、政策、地产、 AI均面 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The overall economic environment is expected to remain stable in 2026, supported by policies aimed at counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, with a projected growth rate of fixed asset investment (FAI) at 3% for the year [1][12][17] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to grow by approximately 5% in 2026, driven by key projects and policy support, while real estate investment is expected to decline by 10% after a significant drop in 2025 [1][17][25] - Manufacturing investment is projected to recover slightly, with a growth rate of 6% in 2026, benefiting from domestic demand and supportive policies [1][18] Group 2: Overseas Expansion - There is a strong demand for overseas investment, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, which are experiencing rapid economic growth and urbanization [2][4] - Chinese engineering firms have competitive advantages such as shorter construction periods, higher efficiency, and lower costs, positioning them well for overseas projects [2][4] - The share of overseas income for leading companies is expected to increase, driving improvements in profitability and business models [2][4] Group 3: Regional Opportunities - The "Five Five Five" strategy is expected to create abundant investment opportunities in the western regions of China, particularly in Sichuan and Xinjiang, which are set to benefit from national strategic support [2][4][3] - Sichuan is identified as a core area for national strategic development, with significant investments anticipated in transportation infrastructure, manufacturing, and technology [2][4][3] - Xinjiang's development is crucial for national energy security and unity, with expected increases in investment in infrastructure and coal chemical industries [2][4][3] Group 4: Cleanroom Investment - The demand for cleanroom facilities is projected to grow due to the increasing need for computing power driven by AI applications, with global semiconductor cleanroom investment expected to reach approximately 168 billion yuan in 2025 [3][4] - The semiconductor industry is forecasted to see a capital expenditure of around 160 billion USD in 2025, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [3][4] - Leading companies in the cleanroom sector are expected to maintain high levels of capital expenditure, driven by the demand for AI and data center infrastructure [3][4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong overseas expansion capabilities, such as China Chemical, Precision Steel Structure, Jianghe Group, China National Materials, and China Steel International [4][8] - In the context of regional development, companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge, Xinjiang Communications Construction, and China Chemical are highlighted as key players [4][8] - For cleanroom investments, leading firms such as Yaxin Integration, Shenghui Integration, and Bocheng Co. are recommended for their growth potential [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - In recent years, several Bitcoin mining companies have partnered with AI cloud providers, utilizing part of their electricity for GPU hosting and developing AIDC (AI Data Center) businesses, with contracts totaling $53.6 billion and involving 1.959 GW of power [1][11] - The market perceives that Bitcoin mining companies primarily have an advantage in electricity resources compared to other AIDC competitors, but many have prior experience in self-operated cloud services [4][10] - The report suggests that companies with more AI electricity capacity tend to have higher market valuations, with average valuations of $4.73 million/MW for total electricity, $12.26 million/MW for mining electricity, and $144 million/MW for AI electricity [4][55] Summary by Sections 1. Current Status of Bitcoin Mining Transformation to AIDC - As of November 3, 2025, six Bitcoin mining companies have signed contracts with at least five cloud providers, totaling $53.6 billion and involving 1.959 GW of power [1][11] - Over 50% of the AI cloud providers that signed contracts with Bitcoin mining companies are emerging firms, with Coreweave being the largest [2][13] - The average contract duration for AIDC projects is 14 years, with a minimum of 5 years and a maximum of 25 years [3][24] - The average price for key IT load contracts is $1.73 million/MW/year, indicating a consistent pricing structure across projects [3][27] 2. Reasons and Models for Transformation - The transition to AIDC is driven by the uncertainty in revenue and profitability from Bitcoin mining, which faces challenges such as fluctuating prices and increasing competition [33][35] - AIDC offers higher gross margins compared to Bitcoin mining, with various projects reporting net operating income margins between 80% and 88% [40][39] 3. Self-Operated Cloud Services by Mining Companies - Companies like Iris Energy, Hive Digital, and Bitdeer are actively developing self-operated AI cloud services, with Iris Energy expected to operate 140,000 GPUs by the end of 2026 [43][47] - Bitdeer plans to operate 1,160 GPUs by the end of 2025, while Hive Digital aims to exceed 11,000 GPUs by the end of 2026 [44][51] 4. Future Outlook for AIDC Transformation - The report anticipates an acceleration in the transformation of Bitcoin mining companies to AIDC, as companies with more AI electricity capacity are valued higher in the market [55] - The report highlights the importance of companies having substantial electricity reserves and experience in AI cloud services for future investment opportunities [4][55]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 12 年 月 日 上海银行（601229.SH） 业绩稳健有亮点，社会责任担当显初心 上海银行2025年前三季度累计实现营业收入411.4亿元，同比增长4.0%； 归母净利润 180.8 亿元，同比增长 2.8%。2025 年三季度末不良贷款率为 1.18%，拨备覆盖率为 254.92%，较上一季度末分别持平、提升 11.3pc， 资产质量整体平稳。 财富管理业务呈现积极态势，其他非息收入表现可圈可点。 25Q1-3 营业收入、归母净利润同比增速分别为 4.0%、2.8%，分别较 25H1 略微下降 0.1pc，提升 0.8pc，整体稳健，其他非息收入表现较好。具体来 看： 利息净收入增长有所放缓：25 年 1-9 月公司实现利息净收入 251.2 亿元， 同比增速 0.5%，较增速环比下降 25H1 1.2pc。 中收业务结构改善： -9 月手续费及佣金收入同比负增 1 6.9%，较 25H1 增 速下降 1pc，但财富管理业务呈现积极态势，第三季度财富管理中收环比 增长 7.78%，保险、基金代销规模环比分别增长 18.38%、34.6 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference has a significant impact on economic trends and capital market movements, with a more optimistic outlook for the economy compared to last year, emphasizing the need for a good start in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][8] - The overall policy tone for the coming year is set to be "steady progress," focusing on balancing domestic economic work with international trade challenges and ensuring development and security [1][8] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a greater emphasis on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, indicating potential for increased easing measures to address low inflation pressures [2][9] - The conference highlighted the need for flexible and efficient use of various policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, which may enhance market expectations for easing in the short term [2][9] Group 3: Fiscal Policy - The conference calls for a continuation of proactive fiscal policies, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, with a focus on optimizing expenditure structures and addressing local fiscal difficulties [3][10] - The emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market has shifted towards demand-side measures, encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing, reflecting a targeted approach to address current market weaknesses [3][10] Group 4: Local Government Debt - The conference stresses the importance of orderly risk mitigation for local government debt, urging proactive debt resolution and strict control over new hidden debts [4][11] - There is a continued focus on enhancing consumer spending to boost domestic demand, with policies aimed at increasing income for urban and rural residents [4][11] Group 5: Market Confidence and Policy Implementation - The positive policy statements from the conference are expected to improve market confidence and stabilize expectations, with the effectiveness of these policies dependent on their implementation and scale [5][12] - Short-term expectations for monetary easing may alleviate market adjustment pressures, but the trajectory of interest rates will largely depend on fiscal efforts to stimulate social financing growth [5][12]

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 12 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 怎么看 2026 年美联储降息节奏？ 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】增量信息不少—中央经济工作会议 6 大看点——20251211 【宏观】怎么看 2026 年美联储降息节奏？——兼评 12 月议息会议—— 20251211 【金融工程】低偏离度下的纯粹 Alpha 创造——兴银基金中小盘指增策 略探析——20251211 【非银金融】保险行业 2025 行情回顾——阶段性超额收益显著，全年跑 输大盘——20251211 ◼ 研究视点 【电子】蓝思科技（300433.SZ）-收购服务器业务公司，加码 AI 算力核 心布局——20251211 作者 | 分析师 | 杨润思 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680520030005 | | | | | 邮箱：yangrunsi@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 12.9% | 7.6% | 81.1% | | 国防 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is planning a significant acquisition to enhance its AI hardware capabilities by acquiring 100% of PMG International Co., LTD, which will allow it to quickly gain access to established server cabinet technologies and customer certifications [1] - The rapid evolution of AI is driving explosive growth in global computing demand, with predictions indicating that AI computing demand could reach 200 GW by 2030 [2] - The company is positioned as a core supplier of AI hardware across various cutting-edge fields, including AI smartphones, AI glasses, robotics, and smart vehicles, indicating a deep strategic layout in these areas [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 92.04 billion, 116.43 billion, and 139.72 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.7%, 26.5%, and 20.0% [4] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.25 billion, 6.94 billion, and 8.52 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 45.0%, 32.0%, and 22.8% respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 29, 22, and 18 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established deep partnerships with major North American clients in the server sector, with plans to expand into liquid cooling modules and SSD assembly, indicating a strong market presence [2] - The company has successfully entered the supply chains of leading robotics manufacturers, with significant production capabilities in humanoid and quadruped robots, projecting to deliver 3,000 humanoid robots and over 10,000 quadruped robots in the year [3] - The company is also advancing in the smart automotive sector, with core product lines such as central control modules and wireless charging modules seeing increased production and delivery [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the current valuation levels of the small-cap indices, represented by the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, are reasonable with strong expected earnings, showing a high margin of safety compared to other broad indices [1][8][9] - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have a balanced industry distribution, making active stock selection challenging, while providing significant opportunities for quantitative stock selection due to their high dispersion [1][16][19] - Quantitative strategies in small-cap indices have a higher ability to generate excess returns, indicating that small-cap stocks possess greater alpha value compared to large-cap stocks [1][26][24] Group 2 - Historical performance shows that the Yingyin CSI 500 Index Enhanced A fund has achieved a steady excess return of 6.6% over the past year, while the Yingyin CSI 1000 Index Enhanced A fund has delivered a significant excess return of 9.7% [2][30] - Both funds maintain a high excess return rate, with a monthly excess return rate of 75%, indicating strong stability in outperforming their benchmarks [2][38] - The alpha generated by these funds primarily comes from stock selection rather than asset allocation or sector allocation, confirming a clear and stable source of excess returns [3][48][51] Group 3 - The Yingyin CSI 500 Index Enhanced A fund is managed by a team with extensive quantitative investment experience, ensuring a robust governance structure and stable operations [4][3] - The fund management strategy focuses on strict control of tracking error while aiming to create excess returns, with a low average tracking deviation [35][36] - The industry allocation of the funds is closely aligned with their respective benchmarks, with minimal deviations, emphasizing a focus on stock selection to achieve excess returns [44][47]