证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 乐舒适招股书拆解：非洲卫生用品龙头，受益新兴市场高增长机遇 1. 乐舒适招股书拆解：非洲卫生用品龙头，受益新兴市场高增长机遇 概况：非洲卫生用品行业领军企业。（1）发展历程：2009 年公司作为森 大集团内部业务分部开展业务，2009-18 年陆续完善品牌矩阵，目前有 Softcare（（心品品牌） Veesper（（对秘鲁等拉美市市场品品牌），及 Maya Cuettie Clincleer（为大众市场量身打造品品牌），并相继进入西非 东 非拉市场；2018 年公司在加纳开始本地化生产，目前已在 8 个非洲国家 1 个美丁市洲国家设立了生产工厂，通过（ 本地产 本地销 "经营模式 缩短销售链路。2022 年公司在开曼群岛注册为获豁免有限公司，自森大 集团分拆相关业务。2025 年 11 月 10 日公司在港交所主板上市。（2）业 绩：公司收入由 2022 年品 3.2 亿市元提升至 2024 年品 4.54 亿市元，经 调整净利润由 0.18 亿市元提升至 0.98 亿市元，2022-24 收入/经调整净利 润 CAGR ...

固定收益定期 年末还有抢跑行情吗？ 本周债市再度出现调整。本周10年和30年国债利率分别上升2.5bps和2.7bps 至 1.84%和 2.19%。3 年和 5 年二级资本债分别上行 5.5bps 和 3.2bps。1 年 AAA 存单利率相较上周小幅上升 0.5bps 至 1.64%。 债市调整背后依然是机构行为变化的结果。一方面，银行年末面临指标压力与 兑现浮盈需求，配置力量不足；另一方面，公募基金费率改革等影响之下，公 募基金被动赎回带来抛压短期增加。叠加券商等部分交易性机构助推市场趋 势，市场出现调整。但这种调整是否会持续呢，特别是临近年末，往年多次发 生的"抢跑"行情是否会再度发生呢？ 往年 12 月债市多季节性走强，债市呈现出较为稳定的"抢跑"特征。过去 5 年，12 月债市基本上都是走强的，2020-2024 年无一例外，10 年国债利率在 12 月均是下行的，平均下行 14.0bps，其中 2024 年下行幅度最大为 34.5bps， 即使不考虑 2024 年，2020-2023 年也平均下行 8.9bps。年末多次发生抢跑效 应，这个不仅在债券牛市中发生，如 2021 年和 2024 年末 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [5]. Core Views - The precious metals market is experiencing a historic breakthrough in silver prices due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts and inventory depletion, with silver prices reaching new highs [1][36]. - The copper industry is seeing a deepening of the anti-involution trend in smelting, with a consensus reached among CSPT members to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% by 2026 [2]. - The lithium market is characterized by mixed factors, with prices fluctuating and strong demand expectations, particularly in energy storage [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The market is betting on a 12% interest rate cut in December, with the probability rising from 71% to 86.4% [1]. - Silver inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped to 559 tons by November 30, down 633 tons from October 8, leading to a risk of short squeeze [1][36]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory decreased by 0.8 thousand tons, with Chinese inventory down by 3.1 thousand tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: New production capacity in Xinjiang is coming online, while demand remains stable despite high prices [2]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is experiencing a rebound after a period of decline, with supply remaining relatively loose [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 3.5% to 96,000 yuan/ton, with production slightly down by 1% [3]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are high due to delays in export approvals from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with domestic prices for electrolytic cobalt rising to 403,000 yuan/ton [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others are highlighted as key investment opportunities in the precious metals sector [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the REITs sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this area [6][7]. Core Insights - The initiation of the commercial real estate REITs pilot program by the China Securities Regulatory Commission marks a significant development, suggesting an expansion of public REITs' underlying assets and a new phase for the REITs market in China [1][11]. - The overall performance of the C-REITs market has shown a slight decline, with the CSI REITs closing index down by 0.14% to 809.1 points as of November 28, 2025, while the full return index decreased by 0.08% to 1040.3 points [2][12]. - The total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 219.44 billion yuan, with an average market value of about 2.8 billion yuan per REIT [3][14]. Summary by Sections REITs Events - On November 28, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission publicly solicited opinions on the draft announcement for the commercial real estate REITs pilot program, aimed at enhancing the quality of the REITs market and supporting a new model for real estate development [1][11]. REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs full return index has increased by 7.49% year-to-date, while the closing index has risen by 2.47% [2][12]. REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs has experienced a general pullback, with 35 REITs rising and 41 falling during the week, resulting in an average weekly decline of 0.2% [3][14]. - The data center and affordable housing sectors performed well, while industrial parks and ecological environmental sectors saw declines [3][14]. REITs Trading Activity - The affordable housing sector exhibited the highest trading activity, with an average daily trading volume of 1.681 million shares and a turnover rate of 0.6% [4][17]. REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with the top three being Huaxia China Communications REIT at 9.5%, Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT at 9.4%, and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT at 8.7% [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment strategies: 1. Emphasizing policy-driven themes and quality undervalued projects with recovery potential [6]. 2. Recognizing the market's acknowledgment of the dividend attributes of weak-cycle assets, while considering timing based on asset resilience and market prices [6]. 3. Monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances, particularly those with ample asset reserves and quality projects [6].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 电力设备 发改委治理价格无序竞争，龙蟠科技签订 130 万吨铁锂订单 光伏：国家发改委召开价格无序竞争座谈会，制定成本认定标准。11 月 24 日， 国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争 成本认定标准等相关工作。会议指出，目前部分行业价格无序竞争问题仍然突出， 一些企业对规范价格竞争行为的要求落实不到位，甚至依然存在扰乱市场价格秩 序的行为。国家发展改革委将会同有关部门持续推进相关工作，治理企业价格无 序竞争，维护良好市场价格秩序，助力高质量发展。这有助于光伏产业链各环节价 格回归理性，行业实现可持续发展。核心关注三大方向：1）供给侧改革下的产业 链涨价机会，核心关注通威股份、隆基绿能、晶澳科技、晶科能源、天合光能等； 2）新技术背景下带来的中长期成长性机会，核心关注迈为股份、爱旭股份、聚和 材料等；3）钙钛矿 GW 级布局带来的产业化机会，核心关注金晶科技、万润股份、 捷佳伟创、帝尔激光、京山轻机、德龙激光、曼恩斯特等。 风电&电网：丹麦 2.8GW 海上风电项目启动招标，青桂直流、南通 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Views - The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced new pricing regulations for power transmission and distribution, which will promote the development of green electricity. The new regulations focus on local consumption and cross-province transmission, facilitating the utilization of renewable energy and enhancing the efficiency of power grid companies [2][13] - The exploration of a two-part or capacity-based pricing system for cross-province and cross-region projects will stabilize the revenue from clean energy transmission and improve the utilization rate of high-voltage channels [3][14] - Multiple provinces are rolling out market-oriented trading plans for 2026, which will accelerate the transformation of the electricity market by mandating a high proportion of long-term contracts and ensuring that coal-fired power trading prices fluctuate within a specified range [8][10] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the positive impact of new transmission and distribution pricing regulations on renewable energy consumption and the introduction of market-oriented trading plans for 2026 [2][8] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,888.6 points, up 1.4%, while the CSI 300 Index rose 1.64% to 4,526.66 points. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index increased by 0.88%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.76 percentage points [63][64] Key Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on flexible resources such as thermal power and investment opportunities in energy storage and virtual power plants. Specific stocks highlighted include Huaneng International, Huadian International, and China Nuclear Power [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the textile and apparel industry, including Shenzhou International, Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Bosideng [4][11][20][34]. Core Insights - Burberry's FY2026H1 revenue decreased by 5% year-on-year to £1.032 billion, with retail and wholesale revenues declining by 3% and 12% respectively. However, gross margin improved by 4.5 percentage points to 67.9%, and adjusted operating profit was £19 million, a significant recovery from a loss of £41 million in FY2025H1 [1][15]. - The overall same-store sales for Burberry remained flat, with a slight decline in Q1 followed by growth in Q2, indicating a recovery trend in various regions [2][18]. - The report highlights the improving fundamentals of downstream brand Nike, which is expected to positively impact upstream manufacturing companies and recommends stocks like Shenzhou International and Tabo [3][19]. Summary by Sections Burberry's Performance - Burberry's FY2026H1 revenue fell by 5% to £1.032 billion, with retail down 3% and wholesale down 12%. Gross margin rose to 67.9%, and operating profit improved to £19 million from a loss of £41 million [1][15]. - Same-store sales were flat, with a 1% decline in Q1 and a 2% increase in Q2, showing regional recovery [2][18]. Recommendations for Key Stocks - The report recommends Shenzhou International (2025 PE of 15x), Tabo (FY2026 PE of 15x), and Huayi Group (2025 PE of 22x) due to expected improvements in the industry [3][19]. - For the sportswear sector, Anta Sports and Li Ning are highlighted as strong performers, both with a 2025 PE of 17x, while Xtep International is noted for its growth potential with a 2025 PE of 11x [20][22]. Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the textile manufacturing sector up 2.61% and brand apparel up 3.12% [24]. - The report indicates a positive outlook for the winter season, particularly for down jacket leader Bosideng, which has a FY2026 PE of 14x [8][20]. Recent Company Reports - Bosideng reported a 1.4% increase in revenue and a 5.3% increase in net profit for FY2026H1, with a focus on product innovation and channel optimization [29][31]. - Chow Tai Fook's FY2026H1 revenue decreased by 1.1%, but operating profit increased by 0.7%, indicating a steady recovery [32][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and others, indicating a positive outlook for the coal mining sector [9]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price dynamics are primarily driven by "real demand" rather than speculative demand, with expectations of increased consumption as colder weather approaches [2][6]. - The coal market is experiencing a phase of price adjustment due to a lack of significant demand, with coal prices expected to stabilize and potentially rise as winter progresses and consumption increases [2][11]. - The report emphasizes that while coal prices are currently under pressure, the overall upward trend remains intact due to supply constraints and the potential for demand to pick up [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 0.54%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.18 percentage points, ranking 29th among CITIC sectors [1][76]. - As of November 28, 2025, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 824 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7 CNY/ton [35][76]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, leading to price adjustments. The supply remains stable, but demand is not meeting expectations, causing inventory pressures [11][14]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices are declining due to reduced purchasing from downstream sectors, with many coking enterprises pausing purchases to manage existing inventory [40][50]. - **Coke**: The first round of price reductions has begun, with steel mills becoming more cautious in their procurement strategies [56][74]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of coking coal has seen a cumulative decline of 50-130 CNY/ton across various grades, with expectations for further price drops in the short term [50][56]. - The average profit per ton of coke has increased, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for coking enterprises despite the overall market weakness [70][74]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Inventory levels for both thermal and coking coal are rising, with many downstream buyers halting purchases, leading to increased stockpiles at coal mines [45][56]. - The report highlights that the effective supply of domestic coking coal may gradually shrink due to regulatory pressures and limited new capacity [57][58].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 量化周报 风格后续关注高低切 风格后续关注高低切。本周（ 11.24-11.28）大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周 收涨 1.40%。在此背景下，大部分大指数与板块迎来了一波 30 分钟级别 反弹。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级别反弹已经持续了 7 个多 月，反弹幅度也基本在 30%左右，各大指数和板块的上涨基本都轮动了一 遍，超 2/3 的行业日线级别上涨处于超涨状态，几乎所有的规模指数及一 半以上的行业更是走出了复杂的 9-17 浪的上涨结构，科创 50 更是在所有 宽基里面率先形成了日线级别下跌，食品饮料、医药、商贸零售、汽车、 电子、通信、计算机、军工、非银、机械也相继形成了日线级别下跌，中 证 500、中证 1000、创业板指、沪深 300、传媒、建筑、建材、房地产也 有较大概率将确认日线级别下跌。因此我们认为本轮日线级别上涨大概率 已经结束。未来市场大概率会是震荡调整的态势，当下的反弹大概率只是 一波 30 分钟级别反弹，风格后续大概率会进行高低切。中期来看，上证 指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 11 29 年 月 日 宏观点评 中央经济工作会议前瞻 事件：按惯例，12 月上中旬将召开政治局会议、中央经济工作会议。 核心观点：12 月政治局会议一开完、2026 年政策大方向也就定了，随 后的中央经济工作会议据此进一步部署、篇幅也更长，我们预计：应会 突出"十五五"开局之年的重要性，2026 年政策总基调应会偏积极、 偏扩张、偏刺激，应会强调"做好经济工作意义重大"、GDP 目标可能 继续定为 5%左右，应会进一步突出强产业（科技&新质生产力）、扩内 需、中央加杠杆，应会进一步布局"十五五"，也应会进一步要求抓落 实、充分调动各方积极性；具体方向上，重点关注货币政策、财政政 策、科技自立自强、"两重"、"两新"、服务消费、提升居民消费率、稳 股市、稳楼市、"投资于人"、"中国人经济"等可能的新部署。继续提 示：大环境依旧是市场的好朋友，乐观点、乘势而上、调整就是机会。 1、12 月政治局会议历来是中央经济工作会议的吹风会，且大多间隔在 一周内，次年经济工作基调和总体部署也就此确定。节奏上，每年 4/7/10/12 月的季度政治局会议（10 ...