Group 1: Macro Analysis - The report analyzes the risk of a sell-off in US Treasury bonds, indicating that the scale of US Treasury holdings and daily trading volume is significantly larger than that of any other country, suggesting that no single nation can manipulate the US Treasury market [2] - Historical data shows that reductions in overseas holdings have less impact on US Treasury trends compared to fundamental variables, but a coordinated sell-off by multiple countries in response to tariffs could significantly disrupt the US Treasury market and global financial markets [2] Group 2: Fixed Income - In April, the broad fiscal revenue showed a slight positive change with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while fiscal expenditure grew by 12.9% year-on-year, indicating an acceleration in spending [2] - Cumulatively, from January to April, broad fiscal revenue decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, while broad fiscal expenditure increased by 7.2% [2] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - Investment recommendations for the liquor sector emphasize strengthening core capabilities and highlight three main lines: leading brands with increasing market share, high-certainty regional brands, and resilient recovery stocks [3] - For consumer products, the report suggests focusing on opportunities in beer and beverages, with a particular emphasis on companies benefiting from policy changes or recovery improvements, as well as those with high growth potential [3] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report discusses the collaboration between Sanofi and Pfizer regarding the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, which includes a non-refundable upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments up to $4.8 billion [6] - Sanofi retains rights for development and commercialization in mainland China, while Pfizer will have an option for commercialization in that region based on agreed financial terms [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the broad fiscal revenue turned slightly positive, and the intensity of fiscal expenditure continued to increase. Looking ahead, both domestic and external demands are under pressure due to the fluctuating tariff policies, so incremental fiscal policies are still worth expecting [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Revenue Side - In April, the year - to - date tax revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time, the non - tax revenue growth rate declined, and the general budget revenue growth rate slightly increased. From January to April, the central general public budget revenue decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, while the local general public budget revenue increased by 2.2% year - on - year [1][10]. - In terms of taxes, personal income tax and enterprise income tax had relatively high growth rates. New - quality productivity supported tax growth. The government - funded revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time in nearly a year, which may be related to the improvement in land transactions at the beginning of the year and the lag in land transfer revenues, but its sustainability remains to be seen [2][12]. Expenditure Side - In April, the expenditure of the general public budget maintained a relatively high growth rate, and the expenditure growth rate of government - funded funds further increased, indicating that fiscal expenditure was front - loaded. Structurally, the expenditure on social sciences, culture, and education increased significantly [3][16]. - Measured by the broad deficit, fiscal efforts were intensified and were earlier than in previous years. As of April, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit was 2.65 trillion yuan, and the current cumulative broad deficit rate was 1.9%, higher than the same period from 2021 - 2024 and similar to that in 2020 [4][22].

Macro Analysis - The risk of foreign countries selling U.S. Treasuries is a concern, especially in light of recent tariff announcements by Trump, but the actual impact may be limited due to the scale of the U.S. Treasury market[1] - The total outstanding U.S. Treasuries and daily trading volume are significantly larger than the holdings of any single foreign country, indicating that no single nation can manipulate the market[1] - Historical data shows that foreign selling has less impact on Treasury yields compared to fundamental variables[1] Treasury Structure - As of March 2025, the maturity structure of U.S. Treasuries is as follows: short-term (1 year or less) at 21.5%, medium-term (1-10 years) at 51.8%, and long-term (over 10 years) at 17.2%[2] - Foreign investors hold 33.0% of U.S. Treasuries, with the largest holders being Japan (12.5%), the UK (8.6%), and China (8.5%) as of March 2025[2] Maturity and Repayment Pressure - The total maturity of U.S. Treasuries reached $12 trillion from January to May 2025, compared to $11.5 trillion in the same period last year, indicating a rolling peak in maturity pressure[3] - The U.S. government is currently at its statutory debt ceiling, limiting new issuances until Congress acts, which could increase future maturity pressure if the ceiling is raised[3] Trading Volume and Foreign Selling - The average daily trading volume of U.S. Treasuries reached $1.36 trillion as of April 2025, exceeding the holdings of any single foreign country, such as Japan, which holds approximately $1.13 trillion[6] - Historical trends show that reductions in foreign holdings, such as China's decrease from $1.3 trillion in 2015 to under $800 billion by March 2025, have not led to significant deviations in Treasury yields from fundamental trends[7] Conclusion on Foreign Selling Impact - If tariffs lead to foreign countries reducing their Treasury holdings, it is unlikely to cause sustained increases in Treasury yields due to several factors, including the vast size of the Treasury market and limited alternative reserve assets[8] - A coordinated and aggressive sell-off by multiple countries could pose a significant risk to the Treasury market and global financial stability, but this scenario is considered less likely[8]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: 1) Baijiu: Strengthen internal capabilities, accumulate power for improvement, medium to long-term allocation value highlighted, focus on "advantageous leaders, continued dividends, strong recovery" [3][4][19] Core Viewpoints - The Baijiu industry is characterized by "demand bottoming out, channel destocking, and stable wholesale prices" in 2025. Demand structure continues to differentiate, with better performance in mass price segments and some single products upgrading [4][17] - The beer and beverage sectors are expected to see a peak season, with a focus on alpha opportunities. The beer industry is transitioning from expectations to data verification, with positive growth anticipated in 2025 due to favorable weather, improved consumer confidence, and policy stimulation [4][25] - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a joint catalyst from product and channel innovations, with significant opportunities for iteration and innovation. The demand for health-conscious and cost-effective products is driving the expansion of the food industry [5][69] Summary by Sections Baijiu - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with companies focusing on long-term healthy growth. The demand is stabilizing, and leading companies are enhancing channel management to stabilize prices [4][13] - Major companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye are setting conservative growth targets, emphasizing quality development and shareholder returns [18][19] Beer & Beverages - The beer sector is entering a peak season with low comparative bases, and there are expectations for positive sales growth driven by improved conditions [25][30] - The functional beverage market is expanding, with leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage showing significant growth rates [48][52] Consumer Goods - The food industry is witnessing rapid innovation driven by both supply and demand, with a focus on health and convenience. The demand for healthy ingredients is leading to the emergence of new product categories [69][73] - The channel landscape is evolving, with discount formats and supermarkets adapting to meet consumer needs, leading to the rapid expansion of specialized stores and e-commerce [79][80]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The company has entered into a licensing agreement with Pfizer for its innovative PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, which is expected to enhance its global presence and financial returns [1][2] - SSGJ-707 has shown promising clinical results, achieving excellent overall response rates (ORR) and disease control rates (DCR) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, indicating its potential as a best-in-class treatment [2] - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 10.23 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 12.3% [4] Financial Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 2.36 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 13.0% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.65 RMB in 2023 to 0.98 RMB in 2025 [4] - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from 7.82 billion RMB in 2023 to 12.65 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.6% [4] Product Pipeline and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its product pipeline, with SSGJ-707 being a key driver for growth, alongside other mature products that are expected to continue generating revenue [3] - The company has established a global strategy, with products being sold in 16 countries and ongoing collaborations to expand its PD-1 pipeline [3]

Core Insights - The real estate development industry is experiencing widespread losses, with a significant decline in revenue and profitability for 2024, indicating a challenging environment for developers [12][13] - Despite the overall industry downturn, leading real estate companies maintain a notable competitive advantage, suggesting potential investment opportunities in top-tier firms [12][13] Industry Overview - In 2024, the total revenue for 168 real estate development companies was 4.33 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 19.2% [12] - The net profit for the industry was -376.3 billion yuan, a substantial decline from -19 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a severe profitability crisis [12] - The overall gross margin for the industry was 15.3%, down by 1.9 percentage points, while the net profit margin was -8.6%, a drop of 7.8 percentage points [12] - Out of the 168 companies, only 68 reported positive net profits, while 100 incurred losses, highlighting the financial strain across the sector [12] Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes that the competitive dynamics are shifting, with state-owned enterprises and a few mixed-ownership and private firms outperforming others in land acquisition and sales [13] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, particularly in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which are expected to perform better during market rebounds [13] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the real estate sector, advocating for investments in companies that are likely to benefit from policy changes and market recovery [13] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Green Town China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Development, among others, indicating a diversified approach to capitalizing on market opportunities [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The company has entered into a licensing agreement with Pfizer for its innovative PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, which is expected to enhance its global presence and financial returns [1][2] - SSGJ-707 has shown promising clinical results, achieving excellent overall response rates (ORR) and disease control rates (DCR) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, indicating its potential as a best-in-class treatment [2] - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by its core products and innovative pipeline, with projected net profits increasing from 2.36 billion RMB in 2025 to 2.98 billion RMB in 2027 [3][4] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 7.82 billion RMB in 2023 to 12.65 billion RMB in 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of 13.9% in 2023 and declining to 10.6% by 2027 [4] - The net profit is expected to increase from 1.55 billion RMB in 2023 to 2.98 billion RMB in 2027, with a notable recovery in 2024 at a growth rate of 34.9% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.65 RMB in 2023 to 1.24 RMB in 2027 [4] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its product offerings and market reach, with SSGJ-707 being a key component of its strategy to enhance its competitive position in the oncology market [2][3] - The company has established a global strategy, with products being sold in 16 countries and collaborations with international partners to expand its pipeline [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Bosideng, and Chow Tai Fook [5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences towards practicality and self-satisfaction, with younger consumers favoring experiential and personalized consumption [1][12]. - The outdoor and ancient gold jewelry segments are experiencing significant growth, driven by changing consumer behaviors and preferences [2][51]. Summary by Sections New Consumption Trends - The rise of "pragmatism" and "self-satisfaction" is evident as consumers become more rational in their purchasing decisions, moving away from traditional marketing [1][13]. - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to interactive and personalized shopping experiences, prioritizing comfort and natural materials [1][18]. Demand Trend Analysis - The outdoor sports market is expanding rapidly, with the market size for outdoor footwear and apparel reaching 45 billion yuan in 2023, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 20% [22]. - The ancient gold jewelry market has seen its size grow from 13 billion yuan in 2018 to 157.3 billion yuan in 2023, indicating strong demand among younger consumers [51][56]. Competitive Factors - Companies are focusing on product innovation and brand storytelling to attract consumers, with significant marketing investments noted among leading brands [3][41]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a robust channel strategy, with leading companies upgrading store images and enhancing digital integration [4][60]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include Anta Sports for its outdoor brand matrix, Bosideng for its functional apparel, and Chow Tai Fook for its strong brand power in the jewelry sector, with respective price-to-earnings (PE) ratios projected for 2025 [5][6].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Net Liquidity - **Construction Idea**: Net liquidity is derived from the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, focusing on the core components of cash in circulation and bank reserves[2] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate net liquidity as total assets minus Treasury General Account (TGA) and reverse repos - Formula: $ \text{Net Liquidity} = \text{Total Assets} - \text{TGA} - \text{Reverse Repos} $ - This represents the base money supply under the money multiplier effect, directly determining the amount of money available for transactions and credit activities in the market[2][21] - **Evaluation**: Net liquidity effectively reflects the real available funds in the market, providing a clearer signal than total assets[31] Model Name: Federal Reserve Credit Support - **Construction Idea**: Federal Reserve credit support is based on the quality of collateral purchased by the Fed, aiming to enhance credit by buying lower-grade collateral[2] - **Construction Process**: - Construct the credit support indicator as the ratio of long-term government bonds, federal agency bonds, and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to cash in circulation, reserves, and reverse repos - Formula: $ \text{Credit Support} = \frac{\text{Long-term Government Bonds} + \text{Federal Agency Bonds} + \text{MBS}}{\text{Cash in Circulation} + \text{Reserves} + \text{Reverse Repos}} $ - This indicator is smoothed and compared year-over-year to identify the direction of credit support changes[2][42] - **Evaluation**: The credit support indicator is significantly negatively correlated with credit spreads, indicating its effectiveness in reducing default risk in the economy[42] Model Name: Fed Sentiment Index - **Construction Idea**: The Fed Sentiment Index captures the sentiment of Federal Reserve officials' public statements to predict policy tendencies[3] - **Construction Process**: - Use Natural Language Processing (NLP) to analyze the sentiment of Fed officials' speeches, interviews, tweets, etc. - Assign scores ranging from extremely dovish to extremely hawkish - Calculate the total sentiment score daily to provide timely and comprehensive interpretations of Fed communication[57][59] - **Evaluation**: The Fed Sentiment Index improves the accuracy of predicting federal funds rates and bond yields, offering better differentiation for the S&P 500 compared to low-frequency document signals[59] Model Name: Market Implied Rate - **Construction Idea**: The market implied rate tracks the market's expectations of future interest rate changes based on federal funds rate futures contracts[3] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the implied rate as $ 100 - \text{futures price} $ - Focus on the price difference between futures contracts maturing in the next month and those maturing in the month of the upcoming FOMC meeting - Smooth the quarterly differences to identify marginal changes in market expectations[68][72] - **Evaluation**: The market implied rate indicator leads actual policy rate adjustments, providing early signals of policy shifts[72] Model Name: Announcement Surprise - **Construction Idea**: Announcement surprise captures the unexpected impact of FOMC meeting decisions on market expectations[3] - **Construction Process**: - Use the price changes of federal funds rate futures contracts maturing three months after the meeting to calculate the difference between actual and implied rate changes - Sample high-frequency data 10 minutes before and 20 minutes after the meeting to precisely capture the policy expectation gap[74][75] - **Evaluation**: Announcement surprise effectively identifies the unexpected tightening or easing of Fed policies, with significant impacts on bond yields[74] Model Backtest Results Net Liquidity - **Annualized Excess Return**: 5.1% relative to S&P 500 equal-weight benchmark[92] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 7.2% relative to Nasdaq 100 equal-weight benchmark[92] - **Maximum Drawdown Reduction**: 15% for S&P 500, 31% for Nasdaq 100[92] Federal Reserve Credit Support - **Annualized Sharpe Ratio**: Enhanced for most assets during periods of increased credit support[48] Fed Sentiment Index - **Annualized Excess Return**: Significant differentiation for S&P 500 returns in hawkish vs. dovish sentiment periods[61] Market Implied Rate - **Annualized Excess Return**: Effective in predicting policy shifts, leading actual rate adjustments[72] Announcement Surprise - **Bond Yield Impact**: Higher future bond yields in unexpected easing scenarios compared to unexpected tightening scenarios[76] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Net Liquidity - **Construction Idea**: Derived from the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, focusing on cash in circulation and bank reserves[2] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate net liquidity as total assets minus TGA and reverse repos - Formula: $ \text{Net Liquidity} = \text{Total Assets} - \text{TGA} - \text{Reverse Repos} $ - This represents the base money supply under the money multiplier effect, directly determining the amount of money available for transactions and credit activities in the market[2][21] - **Evaluation**: Net liquidity effectively reflects the real available funds in the market, providing a clearer signal than total assets[31] Factor Name: Federal Reserve Credit Support - **Construction Idea**: Based on the quality of collateral purchased by the Fed, aiming to enhance credit by buying lower-grade collateral[2] - **Construction Process**: - Construct the credit support indicator as the ratio of long-term government bonds, federal agency bonds, and MBS to cash in circulation, reserves, and reverse repos - Formula: $ \text{Credit Support} = \frac{\text{Long-term Government Bonds} + \text{Federal Agency Bonds} + \text{MBS}}{\text{Cash in Circulation} + \text{Reserves} + \text{Reverse Repos}} $ - This indicator is smoothed and compared year-over-year to identify the direction of credit support changes[2][42] - **Evaluation**: The credit support indicator is significantly negatively correlated with credit spreads, indicating its effectiveness in reducing default risk in the economy[42] Factor Name: Fed Sentiment Index - **Construction Idea**: Captures the sentiment of Federal Reserve officials' public statements to predict policy tendencies[3] - **Construction Process**: - Use NLP to analyze the sentiment of Fed officials' speeches, interviews, tweets, etc. - Assign scores ranging from extremely dovish to extremely hawkish - Calculate the total sentiment score daily to provide timely and comprehensive interpretations of Fed communication[57][59] - **Evaluation**: Improves the accuracy of predicting federal funds rates and bond yields, offering better differentiation for the S&P 500 compared to low-frequency document signals[59] Factor Name: Market Implied Rate - **Construction Idea**: Tracks the market's expectations of future interest rate changes based on federal funds rate futures contracts[3] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the implied rate as $ 100 - \text{futures price} $ - Focus on the price difference between futures contracts maturing in the next month and those maturing in the month of the upcoming FOMC meeting - Smooth the quarterly differences to identify marginal changes in market expectations[68][72] - **Evaluation**: Leads actual policy rate adjustments, providing early signals of policy shifts[72] Factor Name: Announcement Surprise - **Construction Idea**: Captures the unexpected impact of FOMC meeting decisions on market expectations[3] - **Construction Process**: - Use the price changes of federal funds rate futures contracts maturing three months after the meeting to calculate the difference between actual and implied rate changes - Sample high-frequency data 10 minutes before and 20 minutes after the meeting to precisely capture the policy expectation gap[74][75] - **Evaluation**: Effectively identifies the unexpected tightening or easing of Fed policies, with significant impacts on bond yields[74] Factor Backtest Results Net Liquidity - **Annualized Excess Return**: 5.1% relative to S&P 500 equal-weight benchmark[92] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 7.2% relative to Nasdaq 100 equal-weight benchmark[92] - **Maximum Drawdown Reduction**: 15% for S&P 500, 31% for Nasdaq 100[92] Federal Reserve Credit Support - **Annualized Sharpe Ratio**: Enhanced for most assets during periods of increased credit support[48] Fed Sentiment Index - **Annualized Excess Return**: Significant differentiation for S&P 500 returns in hawkish vs. dovish sentiment periods[61] Market Implied Rate - **Annualized Excess Return**: Effective in predicting policy shifts, leading actual rate adjustments[72] Announcement Surprise - **Bond Yield Impact**: Higher future bond yields in unexpected easing scenarios compared to unexpected tightening scenarios[76]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 20 年 月 日 房地产开发 2024 开发房企年报综述：行业全面亏损，头部房企依然具备显著竞争优势 2024 年，开发房企逐步走出结转高峰，行业整体营收规模开始萎缩；盈利能力不 断弱化及房价下跌带来减值压力，行业出现大面积亏损；房企在融资销售两端承 压下，在手现金也延续较快下降速度。我们统计了全行业 168 家开发房企财务数 据。2024 年，开发房企整体实现营收 4.33 万亿元（人民币，同比-19.2%，下同）； 实现净利润-3763 亿元（较 2023 年-19 亿元大幅下行）；实现归母净利润-3740 亿 元（-771.4%）。利润率方面，2024 年开发房企整体毛利率为 15.3%（-1.9pct）； 归母净利润率为-8.6%（-7.8pct）。期内，168 家开发房企实现归母净利润为正有 68 家，亏损有 100 家；归母净利润增长的仅 38 家，下降的有 130 家。流动性方 面，期末开发房企在手现金规模为 1.63 万亿元（-19.4%）。 重点国央企在营收、盈利等方面承压，但相较行业整体依然具备显著竞争优势。 我们选 ...