证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 17 年 月 日 工业金属 铝土矿：几内亚政策导致供给扰动加剧，铝土矿资源价值凸显 事件：2025 年 5 月 14 日，几内亚总统马马迪·敦布亚（Mamadi Doumbouya）采取了强硬措施。根据总统令，政府将撤销 40 多家矿业公 司的工业和半工业采矿经营许可证，其中包含 7 家铝土矿企业。被撤销的 授权和证书将无偿归还国家。 几内亚政府撤销铝土矿经营许可证或影响产能超 4,000 万吨/年。几内亚 撤销经营许可证的 7 家铝土矿企业分别为几内亚铝业公司（Société des Bauxites de Guinée）、金博铝土矿公司（Bauxites de Kimbo）、非洲前进 资源公司（Société Forward Africa Ressources）、特丽莎矿业物流公司 （Société Teresa Mining Logistics）、兴荣矿业开发公司（Société Xing Rong Mining Development）、法科几内亚铝土矿公司（（Société Faco Guinea Bauxite）和阿克西斯矿产公 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" for specific stocks and "Hold" for others, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the steel sector [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in tariff uncertainty, which is expected to improve economic expectations. The U.S.-China trade tensions have entered a phase of temporary easing, although future uncertainties remain significant [2][4]. - The domestic steel production has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in apparent consumption of steel products, particularly rebar, which has returned to levels seen in the previous year [3][39]. - The report emphasizes the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures, which are anticipated to support the steel industry's recovery and growth [4][12]. Summary by Sections Supply - The average daily pig iron production has decreased by 10,000 tons to 2,447,000 tons, with a slight decline in long-process production [11]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is reported at 91.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous period but an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [17]. Inventory - Total steel inventory has shifted from an increase to a decrease, with a week-on-week decline of 3.1%. The social inventory of five major steel products stands at 9,937,000 tons, down 3.8% from the previous week and down 28.5% year-on-year [24][26]. Demand - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has significantly improved, with a week-on-week increase of 8.1%. Rebar consumption reached 2,603,000 tons, up 21.7% from the previous week [39][48]. Raw Materials - Iron ore prices have risen, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $101.1 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.5% [57]. - The report notes a slight increase in the shipping volume of iron ore from Australia, while Brazilian shipments have decreased [57]. Prices and Profits - Steel prices are showing a strong performance, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index at 123.6, up 0.9% week-on-week. The report anticipates that steel prices may gradually strengthen due to improving fundamentals driven by macroeconomic and industry policies [70][71]. - The current profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils remain negative, indicating ongoing cost pressures [72]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (Buy) - Nanjing Steel (Buy) - Baosteel (Buy) - New Steel (Buy) - Jiuli Special Materials (Buy) - Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes (Hold) [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the power sector, including Huadian International, Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Jianou Energy, as well as leading fire power renovation equipment manufacturers like Qingda Environmental Protection [3][8]. Core Viewpoints - The Guangdong government has issued Document No. 136, focusing on incremental projects with a clear mechanism for a 90% electricity volume cap and long execution periods [3][12]. - Compared to Shandong's conservative approach to existing projects, Guangdong's plan emphasizes detailed competition for incremental projects, which is expected to enhance market-driven price formation [12][13]. - The report suggests paying attention to green power operators with a higher proportion of existing projects and short-term revenue certainty, as well as those with long-term cost reduction and efficiency advantages [3][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the recent performance of the power sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3367.46 points, up 0.76%, and the CSI 300 Index at 3889.09 points, up 1.12% [58]. - The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 2912.72 points, up 0.29%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.82 percentage points [58]. Key Developments - The Guangdong Provincial Power Trading Center has released draft rules for the sustainable development price settlement mechanism for new energy incremental projects, emphasizing competitive bidding [3][12]. - The report notes a decline in coal prices to 629 RMB/ton, which may impact fire power profitability [15]. - Water inflow at the Three Gorges Dam has decreased by 26.09% year-on-year, while outflow has dropped by 25.14% [31]. Market Trends - The report indicates a drop in silicon material prices to 37 RMB/KG and a decrease in mainstream silicon wafer prices to 1.12 RMB/PC, suggesting potential improvements in photovoltaic project returns [41]. - The national carbon market saw a price increase of 0.80% this week, with a total trading volume of 3.67 million tons and a total transaction value of 266 million RMB [53]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on undervalued green power stocks, particularly those listed in Hong Kong, as well as wind power operators like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [3][8].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 传媒 阿里开源全能视频模型，腾讯发布混元图像 2.0 模型 行情概览：本周（5.12-5.16）中信一级传媒板块下跌 0.67%。本周传媒板 块受市场影响下跌。2025 年传媒弹性方向看好 AI 应用、IP 变现及并购重组， AI 应用聚焦新应用的映射投资及部分较成熟应用的数据跟踪，重点关注多模 态产业方向。IP 变现聚焦有 IP 优势及全产业链潜力的公司，潮流玩具、影视 内容等方向有机会。并购重组重点关注国企方向，在国资委明确国企市值考核 的背景下，传媒国企诉求明显提升，部分国企资金优势明显。 板块观点与关注标的：1）资源整合预期：中视传媒、国新文化、广西广电、 唐德影视、吉视传媒、游族网络等；2）AI：荣信文化、奥飞娱乐、汤姆猫、 盛天网络、中文在线、易点天下、视觉中国、盛通股份、焦点科技、豆神教育、 世纪天鸿、佳发教育等；3）游戏：建议关注确定性强的神州泰岳、恺英网络、 巨人网络、吉比特，关注完美世界、ST 华通、冰川网络、华立科技；4）国企： 慈文传媒、皖新传媒、中文传媒、南方传媒、凯文教育、大晟文化等；5）教 育 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the electric equipment industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a downward trend in silicon wafer prices, with significant reductions in transaction prices due to weak downstream demand, leading to a supply-side production cut [15][16] - The offshore wind sector is experiencing a surge in project activity, with multiple wind turbine tenders and installations scheduled for Q2 [16] - The hydrogen energy sector is advancing with a large-scale green hydrogen project in Gansu, aiming for over 10,000 tons of annual production [17] - The energy storage market is seeing competitive bidding with average prices for storage systems ranging from 0.422 to 2.29 RMB/Wh [23][26] - The solid-state battery technology is gaining traction, with companies like BETTERY launching comprehensive solutions for solid-state battery materials [30] Summary by Sections New Energy Generation - **Photovoltaics**: Silicon wafer prices continue to decline, with N-type G10L wafers averaging 0.95 RMB/piece, a week-on-week drop of 5.94%. The industry operating rate has decreased to around 55% due to reduced demand [15][16] - **Wind Power & Grid**: The Huaren Shantou Honghai Bay offshore wind project has initiated turbine tenders, with a total capacity of 500MW. Q2 is expected to see significant performance releases in offshore wind [16] - **Hydrogen & Energy Storage**: A green hydrogen project in Gansu is set to produce over 10,000 tons annually, contributing to carbon reduction efforts. The energy storage sector is witnessing a robust bidding environment with substantial project sizes [17][18] Energy Storage - The average bidding price for energy storage systems in May ranges from 0.422 RMB/Wh to 2.29 RMB/Wh, indicating a competitive market [23][26] - The report recommends focusing on domestic and international large-scale energy storage opportunities, highlighting companies like Sunshine Power and Shangneng Electric [26] New Energy Vehicles - BETTERY has launched a solid-state battery material solution, including high-nickel cathodes and silicon-based anodes, which are expected to enhance battery performance significantly [30][31] - The report emphasizes the long-term trend towards solid-state batteries and suggests monitoring companies involved in this technology [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Puhua Co., China Jushi, Beixin Building Materials, and Yuhua Co. [8] Core Insights - The construction materials sector is experiencing a mixed demand environment, with seasonal demand not significantly boosting activity, leading to a decline in stock performance [1][13] - The report highlights a significant increase in local government bond issuance, which is expected to alleviate fiscal pressure and potentially accelerate municipal engineering projects [2] - The glass market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a marginal improvement in demand observed since March 2025, but overall demand is expected to decline post-2025 [2][35] - The cement industry is in a bottoming phase, with companies increasing production cuts to stabilize prices, while the fiber glass market shows signs of recovery due to rising demand in the wind power sector [2][3][18] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of May 16, 2025, the national cement price index is 374.69 CNY/ton, down 0.5% week-on-week, while cement output increased by 7.48% to 3.5835 million tons [3][18] - The cement market is characterized by strong infrastructure demand but weak residential construction demand, leading to a "price for volume" strategy [18] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1306.73 CNY/ton, down 0.82% from the previous week, with inventory levels rising [35] - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with weak demand and declining prices affecting sales [35] Fiber Glass Industry Tracking - The fiber glass market is stabilizing after a price war, with demand from the wind power sector expected to increase significantly in 2025 [2][6] - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology due to their growth potential [2] Other Construction Materials - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer building materials benefiting from favorable second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies [2] - Key stocks recommended include Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials, with a focus on companies with strong growth potential [2][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The rapid development of AI is driving operators to optimize their capital expenditures, with a clear trend towards structural optimization. Despite a decline in overall capital expenditures, investments in computing power are expected to grow or remain stable, indicating the operators' commitment to AI [1][21] - Cloud computing is experiencing a new growth curve catalyzed by AI, significantly enhancing its application potential. The roles of the three major operators in cloud infrastructure are being redefined as they deepen their investments in cloud construction [2][23] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the computing power sector, particularly in optical communication and related companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng. It also highlights the importance of operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom in this space [8][14][31] Industry Trends - The report notes a significant slowdown in 5G user growth across the three major operators, with a total of approximately 1.2 billion 5G users. The average revenue per user (ARPU) is also declining, indicating intensified competition among operators [7][26] Operator Capital Expenditure - China Mobile plans to invest CNY 37.3 billion in computing power for 2025, accounting for 25% of its capital expenditures. China Telecom's computing power investment is projected to reach CNY 22 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year. China Unicom expects a 28% increase in computing power investment, exceeding CNY 18 billion [23][24][25] Market Performance - The report highlights that the optical communication index outperformed other segments within the communication sector, with a notable increase in stock prices for key players in the computing power industry [17][20] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the computing power supply chain, including optical communication leaders and related technology firms, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing AI wave [8][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to pre-increase levels. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. The decline in exports is attributed to the shutdown of Australian coking coal production, which has led to rising prices [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1%), while European ARA coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6%) [3][35]. The report indicates that the coal price adjustment is nearing its end, with potential for recovery as production cuts may occur due to high overseas mining costs [3]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Qinfa (00866.HK), all rated as "Buy." Other recommended stocks include China Coal Energy (601898.SH) and Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) [7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry is at a critical stage of price exploration, with the potential for a rebound as the market adjusts to production cuts and changing demand dynamics [3].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 本周聚焦——各家银行拨备计提充足程度如何？ 一、三阶段占比及拨备计提比例 1、银行基于金融工具信用风险自初始确认后是否已显著增加或已发生信 用减值，将各笔业务划分入三个风险阶段，计提预期信用损失。 第一阶段：自初始确认后信用风险无显著增加的金融工具，需确认金融工 具未来 12 个月内的预期信用损失金额； 第二阶段：自初始确认后信用风险显著增加，但尚无客观减值证据的金融 工具，需确认金融工具在整个存续期内的预期信用损失金额； 第三阶段：在资产负债表日存在客观减值证据的金融工具，需确认金融工 具在整个存续期内的预期信用损失金额。 注 1：信用风险显著增加的标准可能包括：金融工具的违约概率上升是否 超过临界值、融资背景是否真实、逾期是否超过 30 天、是否涉及展期或 调整计息周期、是否出现重大信用风险事件以及其他表明信用风险显著增 加的情况。 注 2：对已发生减值的判定标准可能包括：金融资产逾期 90 天（不含）以 上、对发生财务困难的债务人作出正常情况不会作出的让步、债务人很可 能倒闭或进行其他财务重组、因发生重大财务困难，该 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for companies to strengthen their internal capabilities while actively seeking new growth avenues. It highlights three main investment themes in the liquor segment: leading brands, sustained dividends, and recovery beneficiaries [1]. - In the consumer goods sector, the focus is on identifying high-growth and strong recovery opportunities, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their growth potential and market positioning [1]. - The report notes that companies are actively exploring new growth curves while maintaining their operational advantages, reflecting a proactive approach to market changes [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Segment - Leading brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu are expected to continue gaining market share. Companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jiansu's Jinshiyuan are highlighted for their high certainty in regional markets [1]. - Beneficiaries of recovery and increased risk appetite include Luzhou Laojiao, Shui Jing Fang, and others, indicating a diversified investment strategy [1]. Consumer Goods Segment - Companies like Salted Fish and Three Squirrels are identified for their high growth potential, while others like Qingdao Beer and Yili are expected to benefit from policy support and recovery improvements [1]. - The report mentions that major companies are launching new products to capture market trends, such as Unification Enterprises' new beverage flavors and Hai Tian's expansion into overseas markets [2][3]. Company-Specific Developments - Zhou Hei Ya is focusing on enhancing store efficiency and exploring new channels, including overseas markets, to create new growth opportunities [3]. - Hengshun Vinegar is strengthening brand marketing and expanding distribution channels, indicating a strategic approach to market penetration [3]. - Gu Yue Long Shan is expected to leverage brand value for price increases and innovate with new product lines, aligning with health trends [6].