| 大宗商品 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | 今日重点推荐： 其 他 报 告 2025年04月07日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3342 | -0.24 | -0.28 | | 深证成份指数 | 10366 | -1.40 | -2.28 | | 沪深300指数 | 3862 | -0.59 | -1.37 | | 创业板指数 | 2065 | -1.86 | -2.95 | | 上证国债指数 | 224 | 0.26 | 0.34 | | 上证基金指数 | 6919 | -0.60 | -1.07 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 22850 | -1.52 | -2.46 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8 ...

宏 2025 年 4 月 7 日 中国经济高频观察（2025 年 4 月第 1 周） 关税冲击待观察 证券分析师 平安观点： 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 zhongzhengsheng934@pingan.com.cn 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 本周值季末月初，叠加清明假期扰动，中国经济高频数据基本延续分化格局。 市场重点关注的"对等关税"使清明假期期间外盘资产价格急剧波动，但其 冲击尚未体现在高频产需数据中。可以预见的是，本次美国推出的大规模关 税措施，将使得全年完成 5%左右实际 GDP 增速目标存在压力（详见《如何 看待"对等关税"》）。但中国宏观政策"有预案"、"有共识"，内需有巨大的 空间和潜力。可以期待的是，中国政策或将更聚焦"做好自己的事"，以改善 民生为切入点促进国内消费回升，以供给侧结构性改革为抓手激发经济内生 活力。后续重点 ...

行 业 报 告 2025年04月07日 电子&计算机 行业点评 全球贸易摩擦加剧，关注国产化替代 强于大市( 维持) 行情走势图 证券分析师 行 业 点 评 事项： 当地时间4月2日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令， 宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征10%的"最低基准关税"，并对一些贸易伙伴征收更高 关税。 平安观点： 证 券 液&清洗液、显示材料等业务贡献了约19亿美元的营收，在全球具有强 竞争力。若杜邦的市场份额因立案调查受到影响，国内在相关领域有所 布局的半导体材料公司可能将受益于国产替代的机会。此外，鉴于美国 在半导体制造设备、EDA/IP、芯片设计（尤其是AI相关的高端芯片）、 存储等领域占有重要地位，在美国"对等关税"落地的背景下，对于"去美 化"的需求可能进一步加速我国企业设备、材料、EDA/IP、芯片的自主研 发和国产替代。 我国信创产业有望加快发展。我国信创产业的发展将按照"2+8+N"的落 地体系逐步展开，党政信创先行，金融、电信等八大行业紧随其后。全 研 究 报 告 闫磊 投资咨询资格编号 S1060517070006 YANLEI511@pingan.com.cn 徐碧云 ...

策略周报：美国对等关税加速全球Risk-off 证券分析师 | 魏伟 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001 | | --- | --- | | 陈骁 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 | | 张亚婕 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060517110001 | | 蒋炯楠 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120002 | 2025年4月6日 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 ※ 核心观点|美国对等关税加速全球Risk-off 2 • 上周美国对等关税落地，全球资产加速Risk-off。上周中，特朗普宣布超预期"对等关税"计划，市场衰退担忧升温，全球市场加速Risk-off， 风险资产大幅承压。全周维度，美股三大指数下跌7%-10%，创2020年4月以来最大周度跌幅，日本、欧洲股市下跌6%-9%；国际油价、铜、 铝价格下跌6%-11%；美债、日元等避险资产走高，COMEX黄金周内突破3200美元后回调。A股在四个交易日内表现相对韧性，上证指数、 创业板指下跌0.28%、2.95%，红利指数上涨1.29%；分行业看，申万31个行业仅10个收涨，公用事业、农林牧渔、医药生物 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][33] Core Insights - The report highlights the need for more supportive policies in the real estate sector due to the impact of Trump's "reciprocal" tariff policy, which may lead to short-term challenges for domestic exports. Housing consumption and real estate investment are crucial for stabilizing the economy and growth [3] - There is still room for further relaxation of purchase restrictions in core cities, potential interest rate cuts, and adjustments to housing provident fund rates to stimulate housing demand [3] - The report notes a short-term constraint on new home sales due to insufficient quality supply, with some developers still aiming for growth targets in 2025 despite a 3% year-on-year decline in new home transactions in 50 key cities [3] - The report suggests that the real estate sector presents certain speculative opportunities, with recommendations for specific companies based on their financial health and market positioning [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities decreased by 27.2% week-on-week, with a total of 20,000 units sold. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in March showed a 3% year-on-year decline but a 50% increase month-on-month [9][12] - The inventory of unsold properties decreased by 0.9%, with a depletion cycle of 20.7 months, indicating a slight improvement in market conditions [12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 0.9% decline in stock prices, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.37%. The current price-to-earnings ratio for the real estate sector is 35.46, placing it in the 91.6th percentile over the past five years [23][24] - The issuance of real estate bonds reached 3.72 billion yuan, with a net financing amount showing a slight increase [20]

证券研究报告 金融行业周报 ——银保科技金融实施方案出台，大行资本补充方案落地 证券分析师 王维逸S1060520040001（证券投资咨询） 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 韦霁雯S1060524070004（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年4月6日 1 核心观点 银保科技金融实施方案出台，大行资本补充方案落地 1、银保科技金融实施方案出台，更好服务科技型企业。4月1日，国家金融监督管理总局办公厅、科技部办公厅、国家发展改革委办公厅印 发《银行业保险业科技金融高质量发展实施方案》。《实施方案》的出台有助于引导金融机构进一步加强科技型企业全生命周期金融服务。 实施方案》从加强科技金融服务机制、产品体系、专业能力和风控能力建设出发，提出7方面20条措施。一是多个部门政策组合，凝聚金融 监管、科技、发展改革部门的政策合力，打好科技金融服务的"组合拳"。二是增加金融资源供给，引导银行保险资金投早、投小、投长期、 ...

证券研究报告 金融行业周报 ——银保科技金融实施方案出台，大行资本补充方案落地 证券分析师 王维逸S1060520040001（证券投资咨询） 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 韦霁雯S1060524070004（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年4月6日 1 核心观点 银保科技金融实施方案出台，大行资本补充方案落地 1、银保科技金融实施方案出台，更好服务科技型企业。4月1日，国家金融监督管理总局办公厅、科技部办公厅、国家发展改革委办公厅印 发《银行业保险业科技金融高质量发展实施方案》。《实施方案》的出台有助于引导金融机构进一步加强科技型企业全生命周期金融服务。 实施方案》从加强科技金融服务机制、产品体系、专业能力和风控能力建设出发，提出7方面20条措施。一是多个部门政策组合，凝聚金融 监管、科技、发展改革部门的政策合力，打好科技金融服务的"组合拳"。二是增加金融资源供给，引导银行保险资金投早、投小、投长期、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [62] Core Views - The report highlights that the U.S. tariff policy has exceeded expectations, leading to a significant drop in metal prices. The market is currently dominated by recession expectations, particularly affecting industrial metals [3][4] - For precious metals, gold prices have seen a correction due to the unexpected tariff policies, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 1.99% to $3056.1 per ounce as of April 3. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a slight increase of 0.1% to 932.8 tons [3][4] - Industrial metals are experiencing a downturn driven by recession fears, but there are long-term opportunities in the non-ferrous sector as market sentiment evolves [4] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold: As of April 3, COMEX gold futures fell by 1.99% to $3056.1 per ounce. The U.S. core PCE for February was 2.79%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.13 percentage points. The manufacturing PMI for March was 49, down 1.3 percentage points [3][4] Industrial Metals - Copper: As of April 4, LME copper futures dropped by 10.4% to $8780 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 313,600 tons, with a decrease of 20,900 tons. The LME copper inventory was 210,800 tons. The report notes that macro sentiment will continue to dominate copper prices in the short term, but there are long-term opportunities as supply constraints tighten [5][6] - Aluminum: As of April 3, LME aluminum futures fell by 6.6% to $2378.50 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 765,000 tons, with downstream operations gradually recovering. The report anticipates an upward shift in aluminum prices in the second quarter due to increasing demand from traditional consumption peaks and new energy sectors [5][6] - Tin: As of April 4, LME tin futures decreased by 2.22% to $35378 per ton. Domestic tin social inventory increased by 522 tons to 12,004 tons. The report indicates a tightening supply of tin and a potential increase in demand from the semiconductor sector [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the copper, aluminum, and tin sectors. For copper, it suggests关注紫金矿业 (Zijin Mining). For aluminum,关注天山股份 (Tianshan Shares) is recommended. For tin,关注锡业股份 (Yunnan Tin Company) is advised due to the ongoing supply constraints and potential demand growth from AI applications [7][60]

证券研究报告 "对等"关税下，地产还有哪些政策值得 期待 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2025年4月6日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 市场运行监测 核心摘要 2 周度观点：地产还有哪些政策值得期待。特朗普"对等"关税政策出台，短期国内出口或面临冲击，稳经济稳增长背景下，或需要消 费和投资更多发力，而住房消费为最大的消费、地产投资也是投资重要组成。短期住房消费/投资尚未企稳背景下，或需要更多政策提 振，那后续还有哪些地产政策值得期待：1）核心城市限购仍有进一步松绑空间；2）进一步降息及下调公积金利率，从而降低居民实 际房贷利率；3）进一步打通收储及城改等政策堵点，持续扩大住房需求。 优质供应不足仍是短期新房约束，个别房企2025仍有增长目标。3月重点50城新房成交套数同比微降3%，百强房企销售面积同比降24%， 受制于2024年主流房企补货不足及工期影响，优质供给不足仍是制约新房成交的重要因素。从各家房企业绩会反馈来看，可售货值仍 是制约成交表现重要因素，但得益于楼市回温、货值质量提升及2025年积极补货，仍有个别房企提出销售增长目标。同时以销定投、 区域聚焦及深耕 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Jingxin Pharmaceutical (002020.SZ) [1][9] Core Views - The company has exceeded profit expectations with a total operating revenue of 4.159 billion yuan, up 3.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 712 million yuan, up 15.04% [3][6] - The innovative pipeline is expected to continue contributing to the company's growth, particularly in the treatment of chronic diseases [6][7] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: Revenue of 4.159 billion yuan, net profit of 712 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 4.724 billion yuan, net profit of 823 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 5.357 billion yuan, net profit of 948 million yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 6.092 billion yuan, net profit of 1.103 billion yuan [5][8] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross margin is projected to be around 50.0% in 2024, improving to 52.8% by 2027 - Net margin is expected to increase from 17.1% in 2024 to 18.1% in 2027 [5][8] - **Valuation Metrics**: - P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 17.1 in 2024 to 11.1 in 2027 - P/B ratio is projected to decline from 2.0 in 2024 to 1.5 in 2027 [5][8] Business Performance - The company has shown significant growth in its core pharmaceutical business, with a notable increase in sales from the outpatient market, growing over 45% year-on-year [6][7] - The innovative drug pipeline includes successful clinical trials and new drug applications, which are expected to enhance market opportunities [6][7]