证券分析师 2025 年 04 月 06 日 基金周报 科创医药板块相对抗跌，股票型基金发行火热 基 金 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 郭子睿 | | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | S1060520070003 | | | | GUOZIRUI807@pingan.com.cn | | 陈 | 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | | S1060524120003 | | | | CHENYAO370@pingan.com.cn | 研究助理 | 任书康 | 一般证券从业资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060123050035 | | | RENSHUKANG722@pingan.com.cn | | 胡心怡 | 一般证券从业资格编号 | | | S1060124030069 | | | HUXINYI184@pingan.com.cn | | 高 越 | 一般证券从业资格编号 | | | S1060124070014 | 平安观点： 基 金 报 告 GAOYUE384@pingan.com.cn 市场回顾：上周 A 股市场下行。上证指数 ...

电力设备及新能源 2025 年 4 月 6 日 行业周报 光伏行业贸易保护形势加剧，海风柔直外送技术有望升级 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-04-01 2024-09-01 2025-02-01 沪深300指数 电力设备及新能源 证券分析师 | 皮秀 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060517070004 | | | PIXIU809@pingan.com.cn | | 苏可 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060524050002 | | | suke904@pingan.com.cn | | 张之尧 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060524070005 | | | zhangzhiy ao757@pingan.com.cn | 本周（2025.3.31-2025.4.3） 新 能 源 细 分 板 块 行 情 回 顾 。 风 电指数 （866044.WI）上涨 0.33%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.70 个百分点。截至本 周，风电板块 PE_TTM 估值约 20.21 倍。本周 申万 ...

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 24-01 24-05 24-09 25-01 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 石油石化 2025 年 4 月 6 日 石油石化周报 美国宣布全面征收"对等关税"，油价下行压力加大 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：美国宣布全面征收"对等关税"，油价下行压力加大。据 ifind 数据，2025 年 3 月 28 日-2025 年 4 月 4 日，WTI 原油期货收盘 价(连续)下跌 9.69%，布伦特油期货价下跌 9.98%。地缘风险存在升 温的趋势：俄乌方面，停火协议因双方互相攻击能源设施而止步，泽 连斯基明确乌和谈"红线" 强调不会削减军队规模；中东方面 ，以 色列国防军 4 月 4 日在加沙地带 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has tightened the issuance of municipal investment bonds, making it more difficult for weaker quality issuers to finance [2][7][8] - The newly implemented guidelines include increased scrutiny on issuers with high proportions of inventory and receivables, as well as those with low EBITDA relative to interest expenses [12][8] - The special treasury bond injection into four major banks is expected to enhance their core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios by approximately 1 percentage point, with the Agricultural Bank of China likely to receive additional support due to its lower capital adequacy [9][10] Group 2 - Credit bond yields have generally declined, with notable compressions in credit spreads across various sectors, particularly in the banking sector, which saw a reduction of 8 basis points [3][4][18] - The report indicates that the credit spreads for municipal investment bonds have also compressed, with no overdue non-standard municipal bonds reported in recent weeks [19][22] - The strategy outlook suggests focusing on short-duration opportunities as credit spreads may widen in the future due to lower supply of credit bonds compared to interest rate bonds [6][30]

证券研究报告 【利率债观察】关税落地后的债市怎么看？ 证券分析师 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 郑子辰 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521090001 近两周核心观点 市场表现 近两周国债收益率曲线牛平，10Y国债回落至1.79%。3月下旬利率自高点回落，央行对资金态度回暖，MLF结构性降息，叠加贸易战关税压力、股 市阶段性回调，债市3月下半月收复了上半月近一半的跌幅，10Y国债1.8%暂时成为下旬新的波动锚。近两周整体来看，25年3月21日-4月2日，收 益率曲线整体偏走平，10Y国债收益率下行4.2BP至1.79%，3Y-7Y国债收益率下行2-7BP。 MLF结构性降息后，央行态度似有缓和，但市场利率和政策利率利差仍不低。截至04月02日，OMO余额为7585亿元，较03月20日减少7409亿元。4 月2日较3月20日，R001下行5.25BP至1.79%，R007下行5.80BP至1.91%。当前DR007较政策利率高34.18BP、R007较政策利率高40.51BP。 机构行为方面，负carry缓和后市场杠杆率上行，基本接近中位数；基金维持净买入，小行净卖出同业存单，保险配债规 ...

2025 年 4 月 6 日 宏观深度报告 中国产能周期：变化、机遇与挑战 证券分析师 | 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 | | | --- | --- | | S1060520090001 | | | zhongzhengsheng934@pingan.com.cn | | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | | | 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 | | S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 深 度 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 目前宏观政策和市场的一个重要关切在于，中国产能周期能否较快回稳，这关 系到增长内生动能的变化、物价指标的趋向。本文着眼于 2024 年下半年以来产 能周期在总量和结构层面的积极变化，资本开支层面的优化调整，展望 2025 年 产能周期面临的外部挑战和内部机遇。 产能周期的新变化。2024 年四季度，中国产能利用率企稳回升，需求端回暖是 主要带动力量。结构上，中下游行业是产能周期企稳的主要带动，主要包括计算 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.352 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 38.08%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 271 million yuan, up 28.15% year-over-year [4][7] - The precursor product sales significantly increased, with revenue from this segment reaching 578 million yuan, accounting for 24.6% of total revenue, and showing a year-over-year growth of 70.3% [7] - The specialty gas business generated 1.506 billion yuan in revenue, making up 64.05% of total revenue, with a year-over-year increase of 22.33% [7] - The company is transitioning from a focus on LED to a more balanced growth across IC, LED, and LCD industries, with IC revenue growing by 106% year-over-year [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 2.352 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 41.2% and a net profit margin of 11.5% [6][10] - The company’s total expenses decreased to 22.95% of revenue, down from 29.79% in 2023, indicating improved cost management [7] Revenue Breakdown - The precursor business saw a sales volume increase of 83.39%, with a sales gross margin of 48.61%, up 8.71 percentage points year-over-year [7] - The specialty gas segment's sales volume increased by 25.07%, despite a decline in sales gross margin to 39.95% [7] Future Projections - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 362 million yuan in 2025, with a projected P/E ratio of 59.3 [8][10] - Revenue is forecasted to grow to 3.072 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 30.6% [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Haitian Flavor Industry Co., Ltd. (603288.SH) [1][8] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 26.901 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.53%, and a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross profit margin improved significantly to 37.00%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points, driven by lower raw material costs and production efficiency enhancements [6][8] - The product matrix continues to expand, with all categories showing effective growth, particularly soy sauce, which generated revenue of 13.758 billion yuan, up 8.87% year-on-year [6][8] - The company has optimized its channel network, achieving balanced revenue growth across different regions, with the southern region showing the fastest growth at 12.88% [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 26.901 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 37.00% [3][6] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a steady growth in net profit, with estimates of 7.004 billion yuan, 7.740 billion yuan, and 8.463 billion yuan respectively [8][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 1.14 yuan in 2024 to 1.52 yuan by 2027 [10][11] Financial Ratios - The net profit margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 23.6% for 2025 and 24.2% for 2027 [10] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 20.5% in 2024, gradually decreasing to 18.8% by 2027 [10] - The company's asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease from 23.1% in 2024 to 19.5% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][3][10] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 174.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.2 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the forecast [3][6] - The company aims for a stable growth target in 2025, with an expected revenue growth of around 9% [6][10] - The company is focusing on optimizing online marketing and expanding overseas markets, with domestic and overseas revenues expected to reach 165.7 billion yuan and 5.2 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 16% and 20% [6][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's white liquor revenue reached 170.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, with Moutai liquor and series liquor contributing 145.9 billion yuan and 24.7 billion yuan respectively [6][10] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 91.9%, with a net profit margin of 49.5% [8][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 64.7 billion yuan, which accounts for 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected operating revenues for the next few years are as follows: - 2025: 187.6 billion yuan (growth of 9.8%) - 2026: 203.4 billion yuan (growth of 8.4%) - 2027: 218.9 billion yuan (growth of 7.6%) [5][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach: - 2025: 94.8 billion yuan - 2026: 103.4 billion yuan - 2027: 111.6 billion yuan [5][11] Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 22.6 in 2024 to 17.4 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [5][11] - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 8.3 in 2024 to 6.3 in 2027 [5][11]

公 司 报 告 2025年04月03日 计算机 中控技术(688777.SH) 公司业绩保持稳健增长，国际市场加速开拓 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:52.41元 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 闫磊 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060517070006 | | | YANLEI511@pingan.com.cn | | 黄韦涵 | 投资咨询资格编号 | S1060523070003 HUANGWEIHAN235@pingan.com.cn 事项： 公司公告2024年年报。2024年，公司实现营业收入91.39亿元，同比增长 6.02%；实现归母净利润11.17亿元，同比增长1.38%；实现扣非归母净利润 10.38亿元，同比增长9.51%。公司发布利润分配预案：以总股本785,715,016 为基数，拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利7.10元（含税）。不进行资本公积 金转增股本，不送红股。 平安观点： 证 券 研究助理 王佳一 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060123070023 WANGJIAYI446@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025 ...