1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ETFs will continue to develop, with a trend of diversification and intensified competition. Active equity funds are expected to continue to generate excess returns in 2026, and institutional confidence in them has increased. For fixed - income enhanced funds, attention should be paid to the balanced and flexible medium - volatility strategy, and new - stock income contributions are expected to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Directory ETF Review and Outlook - **Issuance and Scale**: Passive equity funds continued large - scale issuance, but the growth rate slowed. In 2025, the issuance scale of active and passive equity funds was 165.7 billion shares and 411.9 billion shares respectively, with year - on - year increases of 130.04% and 69.97%. By the end of the third quarter of 2025, the scale of active and passive equity funds was 4.04 trillion yuan and 4.71 trillion yuan respectively, up 21.91% and 38.34% from the end of the previous year [5]. - **Fund Flows**: In 2025, funds flowed from broad - based ETFs to industry - themed ETFs. In 2026, satellite/commercial space, non - ferrous metals, and AI - themed ETFs had significant net inflows. Technology - themed ETFs had the highest net inflows in 2025, followed by financial real - estate and cyclical - themed ETFs [8][10]. - **Learning from Overseas**: Referring to the development of the US fund industry, the trend of ETF development will continue. Although the scale will maintain stable growth, the growth rate may slow down. Some active managers can consider the US active ETF model [13]. - **Policy Impact**: Policies have optimized the product registration and benchmark setting mechanisms, reduced fees, and encouraged the development of passive equity products. The future development of ETFs will be diversified and competitive [15]. Active Equity Fund Review and Outlook - **Performance**: In 2025, the scale of active equity funds stopped falling and rebounded, and both the overall market and industry - themed active equity funds outperformed passive equity funds. In the long run, overall market funds and active management funds in cyclical, pharmaceutical, and technology themes can achieve relatively stable excess returns [20]. - **Excess Return Characteristics**: Active equity funds have significant excess returns when the growth style is dominant and when new industrial trends emerge. There is a certain correlation between the concentration of active equity fund holdings and excess returns. In 2026, active equity funds are expected to continue to generate excess returns, and the proportion of institutional holdings has stopped falling and rebounded [23][26]. - **Performance Back - testing of Technology Bottom - Position Varieties**: As of December 31, 2025, the annual net value of selected technology bottom - position varieties increased by 74.02%, significantly outperforming the CSI TMT index by 29.55 percentage points. The position adjustment operations in the first three quarters of 2025 were more focused and offensive [29][31]. - **Performance Back - testing of Pharmaceutical Bottom - Position Varieties**: As of December 31, 2025, the annual net value of selected pharmaceutical bottom - position varieties increased by 43.06%, significantly outperforming the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index by 31.12 percentage points. The positions in 2025 significantly over - allocated the innovative drug sector and were flexibly adjusted [36][41]. - **Policy Impact**: Policies have strengthened benchmark constraints, bound the interests of managers, fund managers, and investors, and guided active equity funds to return to the origin of investment. Active and passive management will co - exist, and theme - stylization may be an important way for active funds to break through in the future [42]. Fixed - Income Enhanced Fund Review and Outlook - **Focus on the Balanced and Flexible Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Strategy**: In the context of the continuous decline of the risk - free interest rate, the scale of wealth management is expected to continue to expand, and fixed - income enhancement is an important direction for the overflow of wealth - management funds. The medium - volatility fixed - income enhancement strategy can better play the advantage of diversified asset allocation and should be focused on [48]. - **New - Stock Income Contribution**: In 2026, as the A - share market is expected to continue to recover slowly, the new - stock income contribution is also expected to increase [50]. - **FOF Funds**: The scale of FOF funds has significantly rebounded, and the proportion of passive products in FOF holdings has continued to increase. The asset allocation of FOF is becoming more diversified [52]. - **Performance Review of Fixed - Income Enhancement Strategies**: The medium - high - volatility balanced strategy outperformed the secondary bond fund index in 2025. The rotation strategy aiming for absolute returns also outperformed the ChinaBond Composite Wealth Index in 2025 [61][65]. - **Policy Impact**: Policies encourage the development of equity - containing medium - low - volatility products and asset - allocation products, and promote the coordinated development of equity and fixed - income investments. They also encourage long - term investment [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of active equity funds decreased by 4% compared to the end of the previous quarter. The number of active equity funds increased by 1.25% to 4,684, while the total fund scale decreased by 4.24% to 3.94 trillion yuan. In Q4 2025, 107 new active equity funds were issued, with a total scale of 56.206 billion yuan, a 0.17% increase from the previous quarter [3][6][8]. - In Q4, the A - share market index showed differentiation, and the performance of active equity funds was weak. Small - cap and value - style funds outperformed large - cap, mid - cap, balanced, and growth - style funds. The non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemical, and communication industries had significant gains, while the pharmaceutical and biological industry had a large decline. Among passive industry - themed funds, cycle and national defense and military industry themes had large increases [3][11][14]. - As of the end of Q4 2025, the median stock position of active equity funds was 90.44%, a decrease of 0.79 pct from the end of the previous quarter. The median position of the top ten heavy - held stocks was 47.98%, a decrease of 0.41 pct. The non - ferrous metals, communication, and non - banking financial industries were heavily increased, while the pharmaceutical and biological and electronics industries were reduced. Zhongji Xuchuang became the largest heavy - held stock, and stocks like Cambricon - U and Dongshan Precision were significantly increased, while Industrial Fulin and SMIC exited the top ten heavy - held stocks. The positions of active equity funds and Hong Kong - themed funds in Hong Kong stocks decreased, and the Hong Kong - themed funds increased their positions in the banking and non - banking financial industries and reduced their positions in the electronics and pharmaceutical and biological industries [3][22][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Active Equity Fund Scale and Issuance - **Scale Change**: By the end of Q4 2025, the number of active equity funds was 4,684, a 1.25% increase from the end of the previous quarter. The total fund scale was 3.94 trillion yuan, a 4.24% decrease. The scales of common stock funds, partial - stock hybrid funds, and flexible allocation funds decreased by 5.38%, 4.39%, and 3.18% respectively [6]. - **Fund Issuance**: In Q4 2025, 107 new active equity funds were issued, with a total scale of 56.206 billion yuan, a 0.17% increase from the previous quarter. Structurally, partial - stock hybrid funds were the main type, with issuance scales of 47.921 billion yuan, 71.14 billion yuan, and 11.71 billion yuan for partial - stock hybrid funds, common stock funds, and flexible allocation funds respectively [8]. 3.2 Active Equity Fund Performance - **Market Performance and Style Comparison**: In Q4 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rose by 2.22%, 0.72%, and 0.27% respectively, while the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 fell by 0.23%, 1.08%, and 10.10% respectively. The returns of common stock, partial - stock hybrid, and flexible allocation fund indexes were - 1.99%, - 1.61%, and 0.17% respectively. Small - cap style funds outperformed large - cap and mid - cap style funds, and value - style funds outperformed balanced and growth - style funds [11][14]. - **Industry Performance**: In Q4 2025, the non - ferrous metals industry index rose by 16.25%, and the petroleum and petrochemical, communication, and national defense and military industry indexes rose by 15.31%, 13.61%, and 13.10% respectively. The pharmaceutical and biological industry index fell by 9.25%. Among passive index funds, cycle and national defense and military industry theme funds had median returns of 12.50% and 10.75% respectively, while new energy, financial real estate, consumption, technology, Hong Kong stocks, and pharmaceutical theme funds had negative median returns [16][19]. 3.3 Active Equity Fund Position Analysis - **Stock Position**: As of the end of Q4 2025, the median stock position of active equity funds was 90.44%, a decrease of 0.79 pct from the end of the previous quarter. The median stock positions of common stock, partial - stock hybrid, and high - position flexible allocation funds were 91.51%, 90.43%, and 89.54% respectively, with decreases of 0.47 pct, 0.90 pct, and 0.73 pct respectively [22]. - **Position Concentration**: As of the end of Q4 2025, the median position of the top ten heavy - held stocks of active equity funds was 47.98%, a decrease of 0.41 pct from the end of the previous quarter. The median positions of common stock, partial - stock hybrid, and high - position flexible allocation funds were 49.45%, 48.25%, and 46.28% respectively, with decreases of 0.42 pct, 0.63 pct, and 0.21 pct respectively [24]. - **Heavy - Held Stock Industry Allocation**: The electronics industry remained the largest heavy - held industry, but its holding scale ratio decreased to 21.55%. The non - ferrous metals and communication industries' heavy - held scale ratios increased by 2.14 pct and 1.76 pct respectively, while the electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical and biological industries' heavy - held scale ratios decreased by 1.90 pct, 0.34 pct, and 1.95 pct respectively. The non - banking financial industry entered the top ten heavy - held industries [26]. - **Heavy - Held Stock Situation**: Zhongji Xuchuang became the largest heavy - held stock with a total holding scale of 77.007 billion yuan. Cambricon - U and Dongshan Precision were significantly increased and entered the top ten heavy - held stocks, while Industrial Fulin and SMIC exited. Stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Ping An of China were heavily increased, while stocks like Alibaba - W and Industrial Fulin were reduced [31][33]. - **Hong Kong Stock Allocation**: As of the end of Q4 2025, the median positions of active equity funds and Hong Kong - themed funds in Hong Kong stocks were 20.97% and 83.05% respectively, with decreases of 5.70 pct and 1.97 pct respectively. The media industry remained the largest heavy - held industry. Hong Kong - themed funds increased their positions in the banking and non - banking financial industries and reduced their positions in the electronics and pharmaceutical and biological industries. Stocks like Zijin Gold International and Standard Chartered Group were heavily increased, while stocks like Xiaomi Group - W and Pop Mart were heavily reduced [40][42][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank (招商银行) with an expected stock performance exceeding the market by over 20% within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The bank's revenue has returned to positive growth, with a slight increase of 0.01% year-on-year for 2025, and a net profit growth of 1.21% year-on-year [3][6]. - Total assets grew by 7.56% year-on-year by the end of 2025, with loans increasing by 5.37% and deposits by 8.13% [3][6]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio holding steady at 0.94% as of the end of 2025 [6][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the bank's net interest income growth improved to 2.0% year-on-year, while non-interest income decreased by 3.38% [6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 151,152 million yuan, with a growth forecast of 1.9% for 2025, 3.5% for 2026, and 4.6% for 2027 [5][6]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio is projected to decrease slightly to 0.92% by 2026 and 0.91% by 2027, indicating a solid asset quality outlook [15][16]. - The provision coverage ratio is expected to remain high at 406% in 2025, ensuring robust risk mitigation [15][16]. Growth Projections - The bank's total assets are expected to grow from 13,044,679 million yuan in 2025 to 15,730,218 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [15]. - Loan growth is projected at 5.0% for 2025, with a gradual increase to 6.0% in subsequent years [16]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 6.4 in 2024 to 5.8 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation relative to earnings growth [5][6]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 0.90 in 2024 to 0.72 by 2027, further supporting the investment case [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the medical and biotechnology industry [1]. Core Insights - The global demand for disposable gloves has recovered to pre-pandemic levels and is expected to grow steadily, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% from 2022 to 2025, reaching a sales revenue of $13.6 billion by 2025 [3][11]. - The nitrile glove segment is anticipated to see significant growth, with the global medical nitrile glove market expected to reach $7.86 billion in 2024 and $16.31 billion by 2031, reflecting a CAGR of 11.2% from 2025 to 2031 [3][28]. - The industry is transitioning towards a balanced supply-demand scenario, with a gradual recovery in prices and profitability expected as high-cost capacities are phased out [4][47]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Disposable gloves are primarily used in medical settings, with nitrile gloves emerging as the preferred material due to their superior properties [9][12]. Market Cycle - The industry is expected to return to a phase of volume and price increases after experiencing supply-demand fluctuations, with a notable recovery in nitrile glove demand and pricing anticipated [22][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with advantages in capacity, cost control, and global expansion, such as Yingke Medical, Zhonghong Medical, and Blue Sail Medical [5][59]. Demand Side - The demand for disposable gloves is driven by increasing healthcare spending and heightened awareness of hygiene and protection across various sectors, particularly in developed markets [25][26]. Supply Side - The supply landscape is characterized by a concentration of production in Southeast Asia and China, with domestic leading manufacturers narrowing the capacity gap with Southeast Asian competitors [34][42]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The production costs of gloves are significantly influenced by raw material prices, particularly nitrile latex, which constitutes about 50% of production costs [50][54]. Price trends are expected to stabilize and potentially increase as demand recovers and high-cost production capacities exit the market [57][61].

Industrial Sector - In January, daily average pig iron production and float glass operating rates remained stable, while asphalt and some chemical products saw a decline in operating rates[4] - The apparent demand for major steel products decreased, while cement clinker capacity utilization increased[4] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires increased, while full-steel tire operating rates declined[20] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 38.5% year-on-year as of January 23, with a similar decline of 38.6% for the month of January[21] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.93% week-on-week, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points from the previous value[25] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars from January 1 to 18 dropped by 28% year-on-year, with a slight expected increase of 0.3% for the entire month due to the Spring Festival timing[29] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 34.5% year-on-year as of January 16, a decline of 3.3 percentage points from the previous value[33] - The volume of postal express deliveries decreased by 5.4% year-on-year as of January 18, a drop of 3.2 percentage points from the previous value[32] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.4% year-on-year as of January 18, an improvement of 1.7 percentage points from the previous value[35] - Container throughput at ports rose by 7.6% year-on-year, also showing an increase from previous values[35] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 1.1%, while the Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index fell by 0.9% and the Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Index increased by 3.0%[36] - The agricultural product wholesale price index rose by 1.7% week-on-week[40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [1]. Core Insights - The offshore wind tendering in overseas markets remains robust, with significant capacity awarded in recent auctions, reflecting strong demand [6][11]. - Elon Musk announced a plan to establish 200GW of solar manufacturing capacity in the U.S. within three years, which is expected to boost the solar industry significantly [6][11]. - The global household energy storage market is projected to grow nearly 50% in 2025, with key markets like Germany, the U.S., Australia, and Japan dominating the landscape [7][11]. Summary by Sections Wind Power - Recent overseas offshore wind tenders show high activity, with the UK awarding 8.4GW in its latest auction, marking the largest in Europe [11][26]. - The wind power index increased by 5.16% in the week of January 19-23, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.78 percentage points, with a current PE_TTM of approximately 29.34 times [12][11]. - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the offshore wind supply chain as demand continues to rise [11]. Solar Power - Elon Musk's announcement at the World Economic Forum regarding the 200GW solar capacity plan is expected to create significant market enthusiasm, particularly for suppliers in the solar equipment sector [6][11]. - The solar sector's current PE_TTM is around 51.85 times, with various indices showing substantial weekly gains [4][11]. Energy Storage & Hydrogen - The global household energy storage system shipment is expected to reach approximately 35GWh in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 50% [7][11]. - The report recommends investments in domestic and international large-scale storage companies and highlights the potential for distributed storage in emerging markets [7][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Ningbo Bank and Industrial Bank, expecting their stock prices to outperform the CSI 300 Index by over 20% within the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng indicated that there is still room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, with a commitment to continue a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [9][10]. - Ningbo Bank reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 8.01% and a net profit growth of 8.13% for 2025, with significant increases in intermediary business income by 30.72% and total assets growing by 16.11% [12]. - Industrial Bank's revenue and net profit showed slight increases of 0.24% and 0.34% respectively, with total assets surpassing 11 trillion yuan and a stable non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.08% [12][13]. - The report highlights a recovery in bank holdings by active management funds, with a slight increase in the proportion of bank sector holdings to 1.06%, indicating potential for further investment [22]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - Pan Gongsheng emphasized the need for a flexible and effective use of monetary policy tools, including interest rate cuts and RRR reductions, to ensure liquidity remains ample and aligns with economic growth expectations [9][10]. Bank Performance - Ningbo Bank's strong performance is characterized by a low NPL ratio of 0.76% and a high provision coverage ratio of 373%, indicating robust risk management [12]. - Industrial Bank's performance is stable, with a focus on maintaining asset quality and a solid provision coverage ratio of 228% [12][13]. Market Trends - The banking sector saw a slight increase in active fund holdings, suggesting a potential recovery in investor confidence and interest in bank stocks [22]. - The report notes that the banking, securities, insurance, and fintech indices experienced declines, with the banking index down by 2.70% [23].

Core Insights - Geopolitical risks are affecting market sentiment, leading to increased volatility in US stocks, while commodities are rising. The MSCI global index fell by 0.07%, with US indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 experiencing slight declines of 0.4%, 0.1%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [2][14][20] - The US PCE inflation for November 2025 showed a mild increase, aligning with expectations, while personal consumption expenditures remained robust despite a slight decline in income growth. The PCE and core PCE indices recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][3][4] - The US labor market shows limited layoffs, with initial unemployment claims indicating stability. The GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised up to an annualized rate of 4.4%, the highest in two years, driven by strong exports and reduced inventory drag [2][3][6] Market Overview - The US stock market is entering a period of intensive earnings reports, which may lead to heightened short-term volatility. However, the overall outlook for the year remains positive for US equities, with potential influences from upcoming earnings on Hong Kong stocks as well [2][29] - In the bond market, the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields remained stable at 4.24% and 3.60% respectively, while the dollar index decreased by 1.88% to 97.5. Commodities such as gold and silver saw significant increases of 8.30% and 14.80% respectively [19][20] - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a lack of catalysts, resulting in a fluctuating pattern. The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index both saw a decline of 0.4% [2][29][33] Policy Developments - Recent policy actions by the Trump administration include the cancellation of tariff threats against the EU and a framework agreement regarding Greenland, which may involve military and resource-related agreements. This has implications for market sentiment and geopolitical stability [2][8] - The US Supreme Court appears unlikely to support President Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, indicating potential stability in the Fed's independence [2][8] Sector Performance - In the US, the energy and materials sectors led gains, while healthcare and information technology sectors faced declines. Notably, lithium battery and social media concepts performed well, with respective increases of 9.2% and 6.0% [25][28] - In Hong Kong, the materials and energy sectors also showed strong performance, while the technology and healthcare sectors lagged. Concept indices such as smart TVs and gold jewelry saw significant gains [34][38]

基金研究 2026 年 1 月 25 日 基金点评 《公募基金业绩比较基准指引及操作细则》解读 证券分析师 | 陈 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060524120003 | | | CHENYAO370@pingan.com.cn | | 郭子睿 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060520070003 | | | GUOZIRUI807@pingan.com.cn | | 任书康 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060525050001 | | | RENSHUKANG722@pingan.com.cn | 研究助理 高 越 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124070014 GAOYUE384@pingan.com.cn 《指引》和《细则》正式稿相对征求意见稿，主要调整内容包括：1）聚 焦投资风格匹配：明确投资目标和投资风格为核心内容，具体说明了投资 方向与投资风格应当关注的基准要素，强调应对不同类型产品分类展示或 排序。2）明确基准变更规则：规定基准变更须在新基准生效前三十日公 告，突出持续性要求，基准一经选定不得随意变更。3）扩大监管主体范 围：《 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Stronger than the Market" (maintained) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report Short - term - Short - term geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices may show a volatile and upward - biased trend. In January 2026, oil prices showed a volatile and upward - biased trend. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, and turmoil in the Middle East have made geopolitical risks the main factor supporting oil prices again. Multiple geopolitical events have occurred, such as the US military attack on Venezuela on January 3, Trump's meeting with oil company executives on January 9, and threats to Iran [2]. Medium - term - The medium - term fundamentals may further widen, and the central direction of oil prices is still downward. OPEC+ has not completed its restorative production increase plan, American countries continue to increase production, and Venezuelan oil may gradually restore its production to the pre - sanction level. The pressure of supply surplus is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the global crude oil inventory will continue to accumulate in 2026, and the central price of Brent oil is expected to be around $56 per barrel [6][8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1.1 OPEC - In December 2025, OPEC 12 - country crude oil production was 28,564 thousand barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 105 thousand barrels per day. OPEC+ (excluding countries without quota restrictions) production was 37,438 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 198 thousand barrels per day compared with the previous month. OPEC+ plans to suspend the production increase plan from January to March 2026, and the supply of Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian oil may be disturbed by geopolitical factors [14] 1.2 OPEC - In December 2025, Non - OPEC DoC crude oil production was 14,267 thousand barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 343 thousand barrels per day. Kazakhstan's production decreased by 237 thousand barrels per day, and Russia's production decreased by 73 thousand barrels per day. It is estimated that the year - on - year increase in crude oil supply from Non - DoC countries in 2025, 2026, and 2027 will be 930,000 barrels per day, 600,000 barrels per day, and 590,000 barrels per day respectively [22] 1.3 - In December 2025, the global total number of drilling rigs was 1,854, a month - on - month decrease of 30. The total number of drilling rigs in Canada decreased by 19, and that in the US decreased by 3. In December 2025, the number of new wells drilled in the seven major shale oil producing areas in the US increased by 10 month - on - month, the number of newly completed wells decreased by 7, and the number of inventory wells decreased by 29 [27] 1.4 OPEC - OPEC predicts that the global oil demand in 2026 will be 106.5 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.38 million barrels per day. The oil demand in China will be 17.1 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels per day. In 2027, the global oil demand is expected to be 107.9 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.34 million barrels per day, and China's oil demand will be 17.3 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels per day [28] 2.1 EIA - According to the EIA's January 2026 report, the supply - demand gap of global crude oil and related liquid fuels from 2025 to 2027 will be +2.59 million, +2.83 million, and +2.09 million barrels per day respectively. It is expected that the global crude oil will continue to accumulate inventory from 2026 to 2027. The average price of Brent oil is expected to drop to $56 per barrel in 2026, a 19% decrease from 2025, and to $54 per barrel in 2027 [31] 2.2 EIA - In January 2026, the global crude oil production was 79.43 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0926 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 2.7363 million barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil production will increase by 1.37 million barrels per day and 530,000 barrels per day year - on - year in 2026 and 2027 respectively. After the OPEC+ production increase plan is completed in 2026, the increase in 2027 may slow down significantly, and the production of the US may decrease year - on - year in 2027, while the increase from new projects in South America will dominate [37] 2.3 EIA - In January 2026, the global oil demand was 102.38 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8818 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 997,600 barrels per day. It is predicted that the global oil demand will be 104.82 million barrels per day in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 1.13 million barrels per day, and 106.09 million barrels per day in 2027, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million barrels per day. China and India are the main sources of global oil consumption growth [40] 3.1 IEA - The IEA predicts that the global oil supply will still be in surplus in 2026. The export of Iranian and Venezuelan oil has great uncertainties. In 2025, the global oil supply increased by 3 million barrels per day year - on - year, and it is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. In November 2025, the global oil inventory increased sharply, and the export of Iranian and Venezuelan oil decreased [41] 3.2 IEA - The IEA predicts that the year - on - year increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026 will be about 850,000 barrels per day and 930,000 barrels per day respectively. The year - on - year increase in global oil consumption in 2026 may be mainly provided by liquefied petroleum gas and naphtha, and China's naphtha demand may continue to show a large increase [47] 5.1 Investment Suggestions - In the short term, oil prices may show a volatile and upward - biased trend, and the support for Brent oil prices at $60 per barrel is strong. In the medium term, the supply surplus pressure is difficult to relieve, and the central price of Brent oil is expected to be around $56 per barrel. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic oil companies that continue to focus on domestic oil and gas resource exploration, have clear goals for increasing reserves and production, and have great potential for overseas market development, such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Offshore Oil Engineering, CNOOC Energy Technology & Services, Zhongman Petroleum, and Intercontinental Oil & Gas [60]