Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [17]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of brokerage firms in Hong Kong to expand into virtual asset trading services, with Guotai Junan International recently receiving approval to upgrade its securities trading license to include virtual asset trading [1][2]. - The approval process for Guotai Junan International was faster than anticipated, and it is expected that more brokerage firms with international subsidiaries will follow suit, enhancing the market ecosystem for virtual assets [2][3]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has released a roadmap titled "A-S-P-I-Re," which outlines 12 key measures to promote Hong Kong as a global virtual asset hub, focusing on access, safeguards, products, infrastructure, and relationships [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the ongoing development and improvement of the cryptocurrency and virtual asset trading ecosystem in Hong Kong, driven by supportive policies and a more complete regulatory framework [3]. Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission's roadmap aims to maintain an open and orderly approach to virtual asset trading and services, which is expected to attract more participants in the market [2][3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [16]. Core Insights - Tesla's Robotaxi pilot service has officially launched in Austin, Texas, with 10 to 20 modified Model Y vehicles equipped with the latest FSD V12 system and HW4.0 hardware, operating in a limited testing area [6]. - The commercial progress of Tesla's Robotaxi is steadily advancing, marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of autonomous driving, with plans to expand services to other U.S. cities by the end of 2025 [6]. - The Robotaxi fleet is expected to achieve high utilization rates, with potential gross margins of 70%-80%, significantly exceeding traditional automotive business margins [6]. - Regulatory frameworks are gradually improving, supporting the development of the Robotaxi industry, with various initiatives announced in both China and the U.S. to facilitate the deployment of autonomous vehicles [6]. - The competition in the Robotaxi sector is intensifying, with multiple global automotive and tech companies accelerating their investments and innovations in this space [6]. - Investment recommendations include companies such as WeRide, Pony.ai, Horizon Robotics, and others, as the maturation of technology and market expansion positions Robotaxi as a mainstream transportation option [6]. Industry Data - The computer industry comprises 338 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 42,806.63 billion and a circulating market value of about 36,919.05 billion [3]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months is 38.9%, while the relative performance is 28.6% [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Today, convertible bonds rose following the underlying stocks, and the valuation increased compared to the previous day. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.69% month-on-month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.68%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.30%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.16%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.92%. The small-cap growth style was relatively dominant. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up, with the trading volume reaching 57.675 billion yuan, a 6.12% month-on-month increase. The total trading volume of the Wind All A Index was 1.448059 trillion yuan, a 26.26% month-on-month increase. The net inflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 6.331 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10-year treasury bond rose 0.62bp to 1.65% [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 437.96, up 0.69% for the day, 0.70% for the week, 1.93% for the month, and 5.64% since the beginning of 2025. The Convertible Bond Equal-Weight Index closed at 208.66, up 0.95% for the day, 0.51% for the week, 2.00% for the month, and 7.30% since the beginning of 2025. The Convertible Bond Index closed at 1,870.36, up 1.99% for the day, 0.97% for the week, 3.36% for the month, and 13.31% since the beginning of 2025. The Convertible Bond Pre - plan Index closed at 1,649.88, up 2.29% for the day, 1.22% for the week, 5.31% for the month, and 13.05% since the beginning of 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,420.57, up 1.15% for the day, 0.94% for the week, 1.19% for the month, and 2.05% since the beginning of 2025. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,217.63, up 1.68% for the day, 0.53% for the week, - 0.02% for the month, and - 1.89% since the beginning of 2025. The ChiNext Index closed at 2,064.13, up 2.30% for the day, 0.33% for the week, 0.91% for the month, and - 3.62% since the beginning of 2025. The SSE 50 Index closed at 2,715.92, up 1.16% for the day, 1.15% for the week, - 0.65% for the month, and 1.16% since the beginning of 2025. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6,194.67, up 1.92% for the day, 0.77% for the week, 2.12% for the month, and 3.98% since the beginning of 2025 [8]. - In terms of style indices, the small - cap growth style was relatively dominant. The large - cap growth index rose 1.06%, the large - cap value index rose 0.90%, the mid - cap growth index rose 1.49%, the mid - cap value index rose 0.70%, the small - cap growth index rose 1.93%, and the small - cap value index rose 1.06% [2]. 2. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 57.675 billion yuan, a 6.12% month - on - month increase, and the total trading volume of the Wind All A Index was 1.448059 trillion yuan, a 26.26% month - on - month increase [2]. - The net inflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 6.331 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.62bp to 1.65% [2]. 3. Convertible Bond Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 120.62 yuan, a 0.67% increase from the previous day. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 159.53 yuan, a 0.29% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 112.13 yuan, a 0.45% increase; and the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 121.89 yuan, a 0.48% increase. The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 25.59%, a 2.13 - percentage - point increase from the previous day. The price median was 121.96 yuan, a 0.63% increase from the previous day [3]. - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 23.04%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous day. The overall weighted par value was 90.86 yuan, a 1.16% increase from the previous day. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 5.02%, a 0.16 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 92.22%, a 1.12 - percentage - point decrease; and the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 18.50%, a 0.07 - percentage - point increase [3]. 4. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, 28 industries rose, with the top three gainers being the power equipment (+2.85%), non - bank finance (+2.68%), and commercial and retail (+2.64%) industries. Only two industries declined, namely the petroleum and petrochemical (-2.10%) and coal (-0.22%) industries [4]. - In the convertible bond market, 26 industries rose, with the top three gainers being the automobile (+3.50%), communication (+2.70%), and media (+1.62%) industries. Only two industries declined, namely the building decoration (-0.50%) and public utilities (-0.24%) industries [4]. - In terms of convertible bond market indicators by industry: the closing price of the large - cycle sector rose 0.53%, the manufacturing sector rose 1.70%, the technology sector rose 1.37%, the large - consumption sector rose 0.65%, and the large - finance sector rose 0.58%. The conversion premium rate of the large - cycle sector decreased 0.69pct, the manufacturing sector decreased 2.4pct, the technology sector decreased 0.95pct, the large - consumption sector decreased 2.3pct, and the large - finance sector decreased 1.7pct. The conversion value of the large - cycle sector rose 1.15%, the manufacturing sector rose 3.24%, the technology sector rose 2.08%, the large - consumption sector rose 1.44%, and the large - finance sector rose 0.88%. The pure bond premium rate of the large - cycle sector rose 0.73pct, the manufacturing sector rose 2.1pct, the technology sector rose 1.8pct, the large - consumption sector rose 0.79pct, and the large - finance sector rose 0.66pct [4]. 5. Industry Rotation - The power equipment, non - bank finance, and commercial and retail industries led the rise. The power equipment industry had a daily increase of 2.85% in the underlying stocks and 1.01% in convertible bonds; the non - bank finance industry had a daily increase of 2.68% in the underlying stocks and 0.95% in convertible bonds; the commercial and retail industry had a daily increase of 2.64% in the underlying stocks and 0.86% in convertible bonds [56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][68]. Core Insights - In the first five months of 2025, China's total vehicle exports reached 2.49 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 8%. This growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, but the export volume's share of China's wholesale automotive market is projected to rise to 20% in 2024, an increase of 1 percentage point [1][3]. - The export of new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for 34% of total vehicle exports in the same period, significantly up from 22% in 2024. Excluding Tesla, NEV exports reached 760,000 units, marking a 13.3 percentage point increase from the previous year [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. China's Vehicle Export Volume - The report details that in the first five months of 2025, China exported 2.49 million vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 8% [1][3]. - Monthly exports peaked at over 550,000 units in May 2025, marking a historical high [1]. 2. Export Structure - In the first five months of 2025, commercial vehicles accounted for 41% of exports, while passenger vehicles made up 83% of the total [6]. - NEV exports reached 850,000 units, representing 34% of total exports, a significant increase from 22% in 2024 [6]. 3. Export by Brand - Chery led the exports with 440,000 units, holding an 18% market share, followed by BYD with 380,000 units (15% share), which is an increase from 7% in 2024 [6]. - In the NEV segment, BYD and Tesla exported 354,000 and 91,000 units, respectively, accounting for 50% and 13% of NEV exports [6]. 4. Market Share of Chinese Brands Overseas - The report indicates that the share of Chinese vehicles in overseas markets has increased from approximately 2% in 2020 to 10.3% in the first five months of 2025 [6][30]. - The top export markets for Chinese vehicles include Mexico (240,000 units), UAE (190,000 units), and Russia (153,000 units) [39]. 5. Export Value of Vehicles and Parts - In the first five months of 2025, the export value of complete vehicles was $48.89 billion, while auto parts exports reached $39.53 billion, accounting for 3.3% and 2.7% of China's total exports, respectively [6][58].

Group 1 - The bond market is entering a new equilibrium in a low interest rate environment, with a focus on the self-balancing process of various pricing anchors and investor behavior adjustments [6][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ticket interest value in a narrow fluctuation market, suggesting that trading strategies should be flexible and based on market conditions [5][16]. - The external environment remains uncertain, while internal policies are clearly aimed at counteracting these uncertainties, leading to a weak recovery in the fundamentals [5][8]. Group 2 - The pricing range for 10-year government bonds has shifted down to OMO + 10-40 basis points, with core volatility expected between 1.6% and 1.7% [2][9]. - The report outlines a trading strategy that includes timing based on seasonal factors and key events, with a focus on the second half of the year as a critical trading window [2][9]. - The contribution of ticket interest to portfolio returns is expected to increase in a narrow fluctuation market, necessitating dynamic adjustments to bond configurations [3][9]. Group 3 - The analysis of the basic economic environment highlights the impact of tariff negotiations and the need for policy adjustments to mitigate external uncertainties [6][8]. - The monetary policy is expected to prioritize stable growth, with flexible adjustments to tools and liquidity conditions [5][8]. - Institutional behavior is analyzed in the context of an "asset shortage," with a focus on the changing dynamics of bank and insurance company investments [7][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The full A - index may continue to fluctuate, and short - term focus should be on structural changes. The molecular end of the equity market has resistance to upward breakthroughs, but the slow slope is also relatively fully priced in. The denominator end has abundant on - and off - market liquidity. Without new variables, the equity market may continue to fluctuate in the second half of 2025 [2][28]. - The rotation speed of the equity structure has reached a high level, while the rotation intensity is relatively low. Strategies may focus more on trading in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to sectors with medium - to long - term narratives, low congestion, and low valuations, such as TMT [3][35]. - The convertible bond market declined slightly last week, and the valuation increased slightly. Only the conversion premium rates of high - rated and large - scale convertible bonds were compressed [36][42]. - Tianyang Convertible Bond announced redemption last week, and 5 convertible bonds' boards of directors proposed downward revisions. The primary market saw Hengshuai Convertible Bond listed and 4 convertible bonds issued, with an expected issuance scale of about 16 billion yuan [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Full A - index May Continue to Fluctuate, Short - term Focus on Structural Changes 3.1.1 Equity Aggregate: Molecular End Pressure May Be Priced In, Denominator End Has Strong Support - The weak repair of profitability quality may continue. The EPS growth rate of listed companies has been in the process of bottom - up repair since the second half of 2024. In the second half of 2025, the profitability quality of listed companies may continue the weak repair trend [10]. - The downward adjustment of profit forecasts confirms that the weak repair has been priced in the equity market. Taking the CSI 300 components as a sample, the profit growth rate forecasts for the next three fiscal years have declined significantly twice [13]. - Off - market and on - market liquidity strongly support valuations. Since September 2024, the slow decline in medium - and long - term loan growth has deviated from the trend of equity market valuation repair, which can be partly explained by interest rate decline and the repair of the M1 - M2 growth rate difference. Policy measures are also important support [2][21]. - In the second half of the year, the molecular end has resistance to upward breakthroughs, and the denominator end has abundant liquidity. Without new variables, the equity market may continue to fluctuate [28]. 3.1.2 Equity Structure: Rotation Accelerates, Pay Attention to Sector Switching Opportunities - The rotation speed has reached a high level, while the rotation intensity is relatively low. The current rotation intensity is restricted by the broad - based index, but the rotation speed is fast, corresponding to a situation of high macro - uncertainty and a lack of a clear equity market main line [29]. - The absolute difference in performance among industries is not large, but the degree of differentiation is relatively high. Industry selection still has a significant impact on relative returns. Strategies may focus more on trading, and attention should be paid to sectors such as TMT [31][35]. 3.2 Market Review: Convertible Bonds Declined Slightly Last Week, Valuation Increased Slightly 3.2.1 Weekly Market Quotes: The Convertible Bond Market Declined Slightly, Most Sectors Performed Weakly - The major stock indices declined last week, and the convertible bond market was relatively resilient. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, most industries in the equity market declined, and the convertible bond market was also weak [36][40]. - Among popular concepts, most concepts declined last week [40]. 3.2.2 Valuation Performance: Only the Conversion Premium Rates of High - rated and Large - scale Convertible Bonds Were Compressed - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 119.42 yuan, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous Friday. The conversion premium rate of the convertible bond market's par - value fitting increased by 0.04 percentage points [42]. - Only the conversion premium rates of high - rated and large - scale convertible bonds were compressed. The conversion premium rate of the AA - rating increased by 2.7 percentage points, and that of bonds below 3 billion yuan (including 3 billion) increased by 3.0 percentage points [42]. 3.3 Terms and Supply: Tianyang Convertible Bond Announced Redemption, CSRC's Approval of Convertible Bonds Is Acceptable 3.3.1 Terms: Tianyang Convertible Bond Announced Redemption Last Week, 5 Convertible Bonds' Boards of Directors Proposed Downward Revisions - As of June 20, Tianyang Convertible Bond announced redemption, and Nanyin Convertible Bond announced redemption arrangements. 5 convertible bonds' boards of directors proposed downward revisions, 14 convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 9 convertible bonds announced expected triggering of downward revisions [4][62]. 3.3.2 Primary Market: Hengshuai Convertible Bond Listed Last Week, 4 Convertible Bonds Issued, Expected Issuance Scale of About 16 Billion Yuan - Hengshuai Convertible Bond was listed last week with a scale of 328 million yuan, and 4 convertible bonds were issued with a scale of 2.572 billion yuan [5][67]. - There were no new board proposals last week. As of June 20, 6 listed companies obtained approval for convertible bond issuance with a proposed issuance scale of 13.448 billion yuan, and 4 listed companies passed the CSRC review with a total scale of 2.928 billion yuan [69][74][77].

Market Overview - The market experienced a downward trend last week due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East and delayed expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[2] - Retail investor net inflow in A-shares reached 103.5 billion CNY, an increase of 8.4 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it at the 52.1 percentile over the past five years[2][30] Investment Trends - Public fund concentration trends have weakened, shifting towards growth sectors, particularly in electronics and cyclical industries[2][16] - The top 30 stocks in public funds have shown significant gains, with a rise exceeding 46% since September 18, 2024, primarily in the electronics, pharmaceuticals, and banking sectors[21][22] Social Media Insights - Kuaishou's popularity has notably increased, with a slight rise in the number of "A-share" content interactions and views over the past week[11] - The demographic of users watching "A-share" content on Douyin has shifted, with an increase in the proportion of middle-aged and older users[6] Sentiment Analysis - Overall sentiment on Weibo remained stable, but negative emotions rose due to market volatility influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic policy expectations[13] Retail Participation - The number of retail investors participating in trading slightly decreased, with an average daily trading participant count dropping by 32,000 to 314,000[34] - The financing balance remains at 1.8 trillion CNY, with a net outflow of financing funds amounting to 3.51 billion CNY, a decrease of 11.56 billion CNY from the previous week[34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for SF Holding (002352) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the sustainable optimization of free cash flow as a reflection of the company's evolving business and operational models [1][10] - Key drivers identified include the upward trend in EBIT and the stabilization of capital expenditures leading to steady depreciation and amortization [12][35] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The company has implemented a comprehensive organizational restructuring to activate operations, aiming to unleash employee potential while maintaining the advantages of a direct sales model [2] - Initial results show that from March 2025, the volume growth rate has surpassed the industry average, with growth rates of 25.4%, 30.0%, and 31.8% in March to May respectively [2][53] - The structure of time-sensitive packages is shifting from business packages to consumer and industrial manufacturing sectors, becoming a major growth driver [2][67] - The number of monthly settled customers reached 2.3 million by the end of 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase, while individual users grew to 730 million, a 10% increase [2][67] Cost Management - The company is pursuing a large operational model transformation to support ongoing cost reductions, with a focus on four major areas, ten links, and twenty-one measures [2] - The introduction of "cages" is seen as a key tool for transforming the last-mile delivery process [2] Future Business Volume - The report raises questions about the sustainability of accelerated business volume growth, particularly regarding the impact of "unmanned vehicles + cages + flexible urban capacity" [3][11] - The use of unmanned vehicles and cages is projected to significantly reduce costs in the last-mile delivery segment, with estimated savings of 2,200 yuan per month per route [3][11] Capital Expenditure and Depreciation - The peak of capital expenditure has passed, with total capital expenditures decreasing from 289 billion yuan in 2021 to an estimated 107 billion yuan in 2024, leading to a stabilization in depreciation and amortization [12][43] - The effective tax rate has been declining, contributing to improved cash flow [46] Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 12.09 billion, 13.99 billion, and 15.91 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.42, 2.80, and 3.19 yuan [13] - The target price for the stock is set at 62.7 yuan, reflecting a 24% upside from the current market value [14]

Group 1 - The report maintains a long-term optimistic view on the re-inflation bull market, indicating that the transition from financial re-inflation to physical re-inflation is underway, with a focus on the recovery of price levels [2][36][38] - The report emphasizes the importance of patience in the short term (1-2 months) while waiting for policy adjustments and market conditions to stabilize, particularly in the context of fiscal and monetary policy [6][10][11] - The report highlights the need to monitor domestic demand and price levels, noting that current CPI and PPI figures indicate a need for price recovery, with M1 growth showing signs of stabilization [18][19][28] Group 2 - The report identifies specific sectors for investment based on dividend stability, recommending banks, ports, highways, white goods, industrial metals, liquor, and telecom operators as key areas of focus [8][39] - The report suggests a focus on small-cap technology growth, particularly in AI and TMT sectors, supported by policy backing and remaining liquidity [3][8] - The report discusses the performance of various industries, noting that low-volatility dividend assets have significantly outperformed quality and cyclical dividends, with banks showing stable profitability and cash flow [39][41]

Economic Data Overview - Upcoming key economic data includes the June PMI for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, with specific dates for release noted[2][12][13] - Recent US retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, below the expected 0.6%, with previous values revised down[3][10] - Eurozone's May CPI final value matched expectations at 1.9%, with core CPI at 2.3%[3][10] Employment and Consumer Confidence - Initial jobless claims in the US were 245,000, aligning with expectations, while continuing claims slightly decreased to 1.945 million[5][25] - Consumer confidence indicators are set to be released next week, which may impact market sentiment[2][12] Price Trends - Global commodity prices increased by 0.8% week-on-week, while US gasoline prices rose to $3.02 per gallon, up 1.1%[6][27] - The US import price index showed a 0% change in May, exceeding the expected decline of 0.2%[3][10] Financial Conditions - US financial conditions index remained stable at 0.292, while the Eurozone index slightly declined to 0.905, indicating tighter conditions[6][31] - Long-term bond spreads narrowed between the US and Japan, as well as between the US and Germany, reflecting changing market dynamics[6][37]