丙烯日报 | 2025-12-09 供应持续宽松，成本端支撑有限 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5819元/吨（+1），丙烯华东现货价6000元/吨（+10），丙烯华北现货价6090元/吨（+40）， 丙烯华东基差181元/吨（+9），丙烯华北基差125元/吨（+19）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR187美元/吨（-4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR54美元/吨（+0），进口利润-353元/吨（-10），厂内库存47890吨（-1080）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（-1.98%），生产利润-340元/吨（-40）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+1%），生产利润-190 元/吨（-93）；正丁醇开工率74%（-8%），生产利润442元/吨（-45）；辛醇开工率74%（-7%），生产利润693元/吨（-29）； 丙烯酸开工率78%（+1%），生产利润415元/吨（-7）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-606元/吨（-78）；酚酮 开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-977元/吨（-150）。 市场分析 供应端东莞巨正源、山东滨华PDH装置存重启预期， ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-09 郑棉上下两难，白糖止跌企稳 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13750元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14847元/吨，较前一日变动-26元/吨，现货基差CF01+1097，较前一日变动-26；3128B棉全国均价15009元/吨， 较前一日变动-13元/吨，现货基差CF01+1259，较前一日变动-13。 近期市场资讯，10月，澳大利亚棉花出口量约为20.6万吨，环比（17.5万吨）增加17.8%，同比（15.1万吨）增加35.8%， 是自2022年9月以来最大月度出口量。2025/26年度（2025.8-2026.7）澳大利亚棉花累计出口量约为54.9万吨，同比 （约51.2万吨）增加7.2%。从累计出口目的地看，中国（17.9万吨）为年度累计最大出口国，占比为32.6%；其次 是印度（12.7万吨），占比为23.2%；越南（9.2万吨）位居第三，占比为16.8%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价横盘整理。国际方面，USDA大幅上调25/26年度全球棉花产量，全球棉花消费量仅微幅上调，使得 全 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-09 供应端持续宽松，油脂承压震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8706.00元/吨，环比变化-64元，幅度-0.73%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8230.00 元/吨，环比变化-36.00元，幅度-0.44%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9502.00元/吨，环比变化-116.00元，幅度-1.21%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8670.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.57%，现货基差P05+-36.00，环比变化 +14.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8400.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.47%，现货基差Y05+170.00， 环比变化-4.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9750.00元/吨，环比变化-120.00元，幅度-1.22%，现货基差 OI05+248.00，环比变化-4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，咨询机构AgRural周一表示，截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植面积已达预 期面积的94%。巴西2025/26年度玉米总产量预计为1.353亿吨，而上一年度为1.411亿吨。马来 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-12-09 原油端震荡反弹，市场多空因素交织 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.91%，报2508元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.18%，报3089 元/吨。 原油端延续震荡反弹态势，对FU、LU单边价格形成一定提振。但油市供过于求的预期并未逆转，中期成本端对燃 料油单边价格压制将持续存在。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前整体市场矛盾有限。其中，高硫燃料油市场结构处于调整阶段，裂解价差已从高 位大幅回落。目前来看，随着中东供应增量释放，市场需要炼厂端需求增加来形成对冲，在比价下跌后经济性已 开始显现，我们认为高硫燃料油市场结构支撑仍存。低硫燃料油方面，市场整体供应依然相对充裕，但局部存在 减量。由于阿祖尔炼厂装置检修时间延长，科威特11月至今跟踪到的船运发货量依旧为零。此外，尼日利亚Dangote 炼厂RFCC装置预计12月8日进入检修（计划内检修），低硫燃料油出口可能会再度回升。近日高低硫价差短期走势 震荡偏强，但预计上方空间有限。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-09 下游采买不力，青岛港口库存继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15065元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨；NR主力合约12065元/吨，较前一日变动+20 元/吨；BR主力合约10515元/吨，较前一日变动+105元/吨。 2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新 的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达 58,664万条，同比增长4%。1-10月汽车轮胎出口量为685万吨，同比增长3.3%；出口金额为1158亿元，同比增长2.1%。 2025年10月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量51.08万吨，环比减 少14.27%，同比减少0.9%，2025年1-10月累计进口数量522.81万吨，累计同比增加17.27%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前三个季度，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为199.3万吨，同比降8%。其 中，标胶合计出口111.6万吨，同 ...

供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅下跌。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9400（-150）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （-100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（-150）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（-150）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、 西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价回落，97硅价格回落。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅DMC市场持稳，当前DMC报 价在13500-14000元/吨，有机硅各主要产品上调后，下游情绪偏观望，但在预售单持续兑现下，企业库存压力不大， 预计短期内市场平稳运行运行。 策略 现货价格小幅下跌，西南开工大幅降低，新疆地区出现一定环保扰动，工业硅回落主要受焦煤等商品下跌影响。 目前工业硅盘面主要受整体商品情绪以及政策端消息震荡运行。需关注近期环保影响以及后续是否有相关产能退 出政策，目前工业硅估值偏低，若有政策推动，盘面或有上涨空间。 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-08，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8745元/吨，最后收于8675元/吨，较前一日结算变 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-09 苹果质量偏差走货较慢，红枣新货价差明显 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9506元/吨，较前一日变动-133元/吨，幅度-1.38%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1306，较前一日变动+133；陕西洛川70# 以 上半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1106，较前一日变动+133。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价震荡下跌，相较往年苹果库存偏低，并且苹果质量相对偏差，果农和贸易商出售情绪较低，各产区 走货速度偏慢，大部分客商仍处于观望，关注去库情况。产区新季晚富士入库已结束，入库量低于去年同期10% 以上，客商心态整体较为乐观。上周库存量转降，出库整体一般。后续会陆续开始出库，受季节性淡季影响，消 费按需采购为主，整体节奏略显缓慢，需求端承压运行，交易氛围仍显清淡，柑橘类水果上市量增加，挤压苹果 销售空间，销区情绪相对悲观。 策略 中性。当前入库量、入库结构的预期已经反应在价格上，后续需重点关注终端市场消费复苏情况、入库结构分 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-09 华东升水持续走高 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为163.00美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至23130元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至23030元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-30元/吨；天 津锌现货价较前一交易日10元/吨至23010元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-50元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-08沪锌主力合约开于23190元/吨，收于23285元/吨，较前一交易日225元/吨，全天交易日成交 180254手，全天交易日持仓108666手，日内价格最高点达到23335元/吨，最低点达到22965元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-08，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为13.60万吨，较上期变化-0.43万吨。截止2025-12-08，LME 锌库存为57750吨，较上一交易日变化2375吨。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场分析 矿端TC持续下滑趋势不改，冶炼厂原料库 ...

航运日报 | 2025-12-09 关注马士基52周报价情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第三周价格1535/2410；HPL -SPOT12月下半月价格1635/2535.马士 基发布1月份涨价函2275/3500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月上半月价格1485/2465，12月下半月价格1605/2665；ONE 12月下半月船期报价 2225/3035；HMM上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船司价格1208/2106; YML 12/16-12/30船期价格最新更新为1650/2800. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船期报价1535/2645,12月下半月船期价格1985/3545；EMC 12月上 半月价格1855/2810，12月下半月1955/3010；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2230-2380美元/FEU，12月下半月船期价 格1780/3030. 地缘端：马士基发布关于红海/亚丁湾的更新，在2025年2月双子座合作启动时，由于红海持续的动荡，A.P. Moller-Maer ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic policy expectations are rising. China's imports and exports rebounded in November. Although there are still high - base disturbances, exports are expected to maintain strong resilience considering external positive factors such as the easing of Sino - US relations and global economic recovery [1]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly. The market's expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has also risen sharply, and attention should be paid to its impact on global liquidity [2]. - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on the relatively certain non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. Also, pay attention to the "anti - involution" facts in the black and chemical sectors, and the impact of Sino - US talks and weather on agricultural products [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic policy expectations are heating up. Multiple meetings have been held in November, including the State Council Executive Meeting, the price disorderly competition cost determination work symposium, and the power and energy storage battery industry manufacturing enterprise symposium [1]. - In October, China's export (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, with the previous value increasing by 8.3%. The import and export data were affected by the reduction of working days and pre - holiday rush exports. In November, China's official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2 month - on - month, and the high - tech manufacturing PMI has been above the critical point of 50 for 10 consecutive months [1]. - In November, China's export (in US dollars) increased by 5.9% year - on - year, higher than expected. Exports to the EU increased by 14.8% year - on - year, exports to ASEAN increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and exports to the US declined further. Integrated circuits and automobiles were the main driving factors [1]. - In November, China's import (in US dollars) increased by 1.9% year - on - year, slightly rebounding from the previous month. Imports from the US and ASEAN decreased less, and imports from the EU decreased slightly year - on - year. Imports of mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products increased, as did the import volume of energy products except coal [1]. - On December 8, the A - share market rebounded strongly, with sectors such as computing hardware, commercial aerospace, storage chips, and securities leading the rise [1]. Fed and Global Market - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has jumped from less than 30% on November 20 to over 70%. Many Fed officials have released dovish signals, and some key figures support a December rate cut [2]. - In November, the US ADP employment decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The US ISM manufacturing index dropped from 48.7 to 48.2 [2]. - Trump hinted that economic advisor Hassett, who tends to a loose stance, might succeed as the Fed chairman, strengthening the market's expectation that the rate - cut pace could be faster than expected [2]. - The market's expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has risen sharply, leading to higher Japanese bond yields and a stronger yen. Attention should be paid to its impact on global liquidity [2]. Commodity Market - In the black sector, it is still dragged down by the downstream demand expectation, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" facts [2]. - In the non - ferrous sector, the long - term supply constraint has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation recently [2]. - In the energy sector, continue to pay attention to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks on oil prices. Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman have submitted additional production - cut plans, and the EU has reached an agreement to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas by 2027 [2]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA is worth noting [2]. - In the agricultural product sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast after the Sino - US talks [2]. - For precious metals, after the short - term sharp adjustment risk is cleared, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [2]. Important News - China's export (in US dollars) increased by 5.9% year - on - year in November, with an estimate of 4% and a previous value of - 1.1%. Imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a previous value of 1%. The trade surplus was $111.68 billion [4]. - The CSRC will implement differentiated supervision on securities firms, appropriately relax restrictions on high - quality institutions, and explore differentiated supervision on small and medium - sized and foreign - funded securities firms [4]. - On December 8, the market opened higher and moved higher. The ChiNext Index rose more than 3% during the session. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.6% [4]. - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing multiple aspects such as expanding domestic demand and implementing positive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [4].