氯碱日报 | 2026-02-04 液氯价格上涨，氧化铝下调烧碱采购价 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5071元/吨（+57）；华东基差-291元/吨（-57）;华南基差-201元/吨（-37）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4780元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4870元/吨（+20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+0）；电石利润52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-744元/吨（+55）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利21元/吨（+70）；PVC出口利润-12.0美元/吨（-0.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存29.0万吨（-1.8）；PVC社会库存58.5万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率79.98%（-0.16%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.61%（-2.43%）；PVC开工率77.13%（-0.85%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量96.0万吨（+7.6）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1969元/吨（-35）；山东32%液碱基差-125元/吨（+13）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价590元/吨（-7）；山东5 ...

化工日报 | 2026-02-04 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格16000元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15130元/吨，较前 一日变动+130元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1945美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1890美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格13000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价12700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同比增加17.94%。 据中国海关总署1月18日公布的数据显示，2025年中国橡胶轮胎出口量达965万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1677 亿元，同比增长2%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达929万吨，同比增长3.3%；出口金额为1611亿元，同比增 长1.8%。按条数计算，出口量达70,162万条，同比增长3.1%。 2025年12月我 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market anticipates a weakening in pre - holiday demand. For PE, due to the decline in international oil prices, the cost - side support for plastics has weakened. With an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, the polyolefin market has corrected. For PP, the cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious, leading to a correction in both futures and spot prices [2][3]. - The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak. For PE, there is an expected increase in supply pressure, and downstream demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. For PP, the supply side lacks strong support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market is affected by cost - side and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the sustainability of the rebound is limited. The report recommends a wait - and - see approach for L/PP [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6865 yuan/ton (-13), and that of the PP main contract is 6730 yuan/ton (+16). LL North China spot is 6730 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot is 6800 yuan/ton (-50), and PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -135 yuan/ton (-57), LL East China basis is -65 yuan/ton (-37), and PP East China basis is -50 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 85.4% (+0.7%), and the PP operating rate is 74.8% (-1.2%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 145.4 yuan/ton (+260.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -264.6 yuan/ton (+260.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -388.0 yuan/ton (+117.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 11.4 yuan/ton (-65.3), the PP import profit is -283.9 yuan/ton (+44.8), and the PP export profit is -79.8 US dollars/ton (-5.7) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 34.6% (-1.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 42.1% (-2.9%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.2% (+0.2%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The decline in international oil prices has led to a weakening of cost - side support. In terms of supply, there are many restarted devices, limited planned maintenance in February, and an increase in imported resources. In terms of demand, it is in the off - season, with a decline in overall downstream operating rates and weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2]. - **PP**: The cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious. On the supply side, PDH is in a deep loss, but there is limited planned maintenance in the future, and some devices are resuming production. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, and there is a seasonal decline in demand with limited new orders. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [3]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for L/PP. The short - term cost - side fluctuations are strong, and the macro - and capital - side disturbances are increasing. The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, and the sustainability of the rebound may be limited [4]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided [5]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The estimated bottom value of the February contract is around 1700 points, and factors such as ship - schedule delays and the online cargo - collection ratio of different alliances will affect the final delivery settlement price. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year [4]. - Before the Spring Festival, the driving force for freight rates is weak. The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the shipping companies' price - support measures are effective in March after the festival. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaic may disrupt the shipping rhythm and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The price of Maersk has provided an overall price guidance for February, while the prices of the PA and OA alliances have declined. The shipping capacity in March has increased by 19% compared to February. There is an expectation of price support in March [5]. - For more distant - month contracts, the game over the resumption time is intense, and the volatility is expected to remain at a high level. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. Maersk will adjust some routes to pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in the first half of 2026 is relatively small. If the Suez Canal does not resume operation in the first half of the year, the shipping capacity pressure will be relatively controllable, and higher freight rates can be expected. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of February 3, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index (Europe route) futures contracts is 58,854.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 34,792.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1737.80, 1237.90, 1533.70, 1597.90, 1128.60, and 1439.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On February 1, 2026, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1418 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price is 1867 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price is 2605 US dollars/FEU. On February 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1792.14 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) is 1101.40 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU have been delivered in 2026. Among them, 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 28,000 TEU) and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (17,148 TEU) have been delivered. In the remaining months of 2026, 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships are expected to deliver 737,400 TEU (50 ships), 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, with only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU delivered in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly shipping capacity in February is 263,100 TEU, with the capacities in weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9 being 300,400 TEU, 312,700 TEU, 271,300 TEU, and 168,200 TEU respectively. The average weekly shipping capacity in March is 313,400 TEU, and in April is 279,000 TEU. There are 12 blank sailings in February and 6 blank sailings and 2 TBNs in March [3]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk will adjust the ME11 route structure starting from mid - February 2026, passing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. If possible, it will also adjust the AE12 and AE15 services in subsequent stages to pass through these areas. The full resumption of the Red Sea route requires multiple conditions to be met, and the current detour has become the new normal for the customer supply chain [2][6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaic by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping rhythm of relevant industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report After a significant decline, copper prices have stabilized and rebounded with the gold price. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, demand is weakening. For enterprises with buy-hedging needs, they can conduct a small amount of hedging, but the position should not be too heavy. It is expected that the copper price will range between RMB 98,000/ton and RMB 110,000/ton before the Spring Festival [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market On February 3, 2026, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at RMB 101,490/ton and closed at RMB 104,500/ton, a 6.01% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at RMB 104,950/ton and closed at RMB 105,180/ton, a 3.49% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.2 Spot Market In the morning of the previous day, spot copper holders lowered the premium. The mainstream flat copper was quoted at a premium of around RMB 400/ton. The prices in Shanghai and Changzhou markets for some brands dropped to a premium of around RMB 350/ton and were then pressured to RMB 320 - 340/ton for transactions. The mainstream flat copper was still quoted at a premium of RMB 380 - 400/ton with tight supply. Good copper was at a premium of around RMB 420/ton. In the second trading session, some sources were at a premium of RMB 300 - 320/ton, which stimulated downstream purchases. The market's purchase sentiment index rose to 3.18, and the sales sentiment index rose to 3.29. Spot copper merchants were worried about the further decline of the premium and actively sold to lock in profits [2] 3.3 Important News and Information 3.3.1 Macro and Geopolitical The US White House stated that the talks with Iran later this week will proceed as planned. Iran hopes to move the talks to Oman and hold them bilaterally. The US government ended its partial shutdown after the President signed the appropriation bill [3] 3.3.2 Federal Reserve Fed Governor Milan believes that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasizes that monetary policy should remain cautious until inflation fully returns to the target [3] 3.3.3 Mining Rome Resources reported encouraging results for copper and tin from metallurgical tests on its Bisie North project in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Drilling in Kalayi is ongoing, and the company will move to Mont Agoma next month [4] 3.3.4 Domestic Policy The deputy secretary-general of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system, including expanding the national strategic reserve and exploring a commercial reserve mechanism, and considering including copper concentrates in the reserve [4][5] 3.3.5 Consumption In January 2026, copper product consumption showed pre - holiday rush but with sector differentiation. The power sector was supported by State Grid orders, the home appliance industry was strong due to the year - end peak season, the automotive sector was stable, while the construction and hardware sectors were dragged down by the real estate slump. High copper prices suppressed downstream purchases, and the overall stocking rhythm was earlier and more cautious than in previous years. In February, with the approaching Spring Festival, consumption is expected to enter a seasonal trough [5][6] 3.3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts LME warehouse receipts decreased by 300 tons to 176,125 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 494 tons to 159,021 tons. On February 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 33.04 million tons, an increase of 0.76 million tons from the previous week [6] 3.4 Price and Related Data | | SMM:1 Copper (Premium Copper) | SMM:1 Copper (Flat Copper) | SMM:1 Copper (Wet - Process Copper) | Yangshan Premium | LME (0 - 3) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Spot (Premium/Discount) (Today)** | - 120 - - 100 | - 130 | - 230 | 43 | - 59 | | **Spot (Premium/Discount) (Yesterday)** | - 130 - - 110 | - 150 | - 240 | 45 | - 90 | | **Spot (Premium/Discount) (Last Week)** | - 265 - - 235 | - 285 | - 335 | 22 | - 71 | | **Spot (Premium/Discount) (One Month Ago)** | - 190 - - 150 | - 225 | - 285 | 49 | 39 | | | LME | SHFE | COMEX | SHFE Warehouse Receipts | LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipts Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Inventory (Today)** | 176,125 | 233,004 | 525,962 | 159,021 | 21.68% | | **Inventory (Yesterday)** | 174,675 | | 524,102 | 158,527 | 23.89% | | **Inventory (Last Week)** | 172,350 | 225,937 | 513,145 | 144,908 | 26.23% | | **Inventory (One Month Ago)** | 142,550 | | 453,448 | 81,775 | 24.98% | | | CU05 - CU02 (Continuous Third - Near Month) | CU03 - CU02 (Main - Near Month) | CU03/AL03 | CU03/ZN03 | Import Profit | SHFE - LME Ratio (Main) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Today** | 690 | 360 | 4.39 | 4.19 | - 536 | 7.64 | | **Yesterday** | 880 | 890 | 4.28 | 4.02 | - 532 | 7.93 | | **Last Week** | 830 | 320 | 4.22 | 4.11 | - 655 | 7.73 | | **One Month Ago** | - 420 | - 560 | 4.29 | 4.22 | - 792 | 7.86 | [26][27][28]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-04 淡季不淡，碳酸锂价格反弹 根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为107482吨，环比-1414吨。其中冶炼厂库存为19003吨，环比-831吨；下游库 存为41485吨，环比+3007吨；其他库存为47880吨，环比-3590吨。 策略 当前价格波动较大，春节假期临近，需关注持仓风险，短期区间操作为主。但碳酸锂基本面依然较好，若回调幅 度过大，可考虑逢低做多。 单边：若回调幅度较大，可考虑逢低做多 风险 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场分析 2026-02-03，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于140040元/吨，收于148100元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化4.63%。当日 成交量为619542手，持仓量为355770手，前一交易日持仓量347698手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为7520元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单33084手，较上个交易日变化843手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价142000-165000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-2000元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价139000-1610 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [7] - Silver: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core Viewpoints - The US government shutdown crisis has been resolved, and the market is waiting for the US-Iran talks to take place. The gold price has stabilized and rebounded, and the upward logic of the overall price center remains smooth. The silver price has also stabilized and rebounded, and the rebound is slightly stronger than that of gold. The gold-silver ratio has changed significantly, and it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [1][7][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: The US-Iran talks are still scheduled to be held later this week. Iran hopes to move the talks from Istanbul to Oman and hold them bilaterally, but there has been no response from Iran yet [1] - US government: President Trump signed a government funding bill to end the partial government shutdown [1] - Federal Reserve: Fed Governor Milan said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that monetary policy needs to remain cautious until inflation fully returns to the target [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1068.46 yuan/gram and closed at 1093.78 yuan/gram, a change of 8.45% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session opened at 1100.02 yuan/gram and closed at 1108.80 yuan/gram, a 1.37% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 22,000.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,446.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -13.64% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 931,055 lots, and the open interest was 226,336 lots. The night session opened at 22,000 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,393 yuan/kilogram, a 4.42% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 3, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.266%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.797, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 1,997 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -1,796 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 1,002,716 lots, a change of -20.15% from the previous trading day [3] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -25,039 lots, and the short positions changed by -10,892 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,619,975 lots, a change of 18.82% from the previous trading day [3] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,087.10 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,547 tons, an increase of 1,024 tons from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 3, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was -37.63 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 4,258.64 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 51.00, a change of 25.57% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 57.15, a change of 5.64% from the previous trading day [5] Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (February 3, 2026), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 53,896 kilograms, a change of -37.51% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 686,290 kilograms, a change of 223.83% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [6] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The gold price has stabilized and rebounded, and the upward logic of the overall price center remains smooth. The Au2604 contract may oscillate in the range of 1,000 yuan/gram - 1,200 yuan/gram [7] - Silver: Neutral. The silver price has also stabilized and rebounded, and the rebound is slightly stronger than that of gold. The Ag2604 contract may oscillate in the range of 21,000 yuan/kilogram - 23,500 yuan/kilogram [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8]

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-04 央行买卖国债1000亿，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 策略 单边：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡。 套利：关注2603基差回落。 套保：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保。 风险 流动性快速紧缩风险 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算 收入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优" ...

宏观日报 | 2026-02-04 警惕上游价格回调风险 中观事件总览 行业总览 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）有色：镍、铝价格持续回落。2）农业：鸡蛋价格回调。3）化工：化工品价格近期波动。 中游：1）化工：PX开工率高位。2）能源：电厂耗煤量低位。3）农业：生猪制品开工上行 下游：1）地产：一、二线城市商品房销售季节性回落。2）服务：国内航班班次上行。 生产行业：1）2026年中央一号文件2月3日发布，这也是"十五五"首个中央一号文件。《中共中央国务院关于锚定 农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》提出，锚定农业农村现代化，以推进乡村全面振兴为总抓手，以 学习运用"千万工程"经验为引领，以改革创新为根本动力，提高强农惠农富农政策效能，守牢国家粮食安全底线， 持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，提升乡村产业发展水平、乡村建设水平、乡村治理水平，努力把农业建成现代化大 产业、使农村基本具备现代生活条件、让农民生活更加富裕美好，为推进中国式现代化提供基础支撑。 服务行业：1）央行加量续作3个月期买断式逆回购，持续向市场注入中期 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-04 铝现货市场成交清淡 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23290元/吨，较上一交易日变化-410元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-220元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价23160元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化40元/吨至-350元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录23310元/吨，较上一交易日变化-400元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-200元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-02-03日沪铝主力合约开于23435元/吨，收于23810元/吨，较上一交易日变化-230元/吨， 最高价达23930元/吨，最低价达到23140元/吨。全天交易日成交763560手，全天交易日持仓226641手。 库存方面，截止2026-02-03，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存81.7万吨，较上一期变化3.5万吨，仓单库存150712 吨，较上一交易日变化253吨，LME铝库存495175吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-02-03SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨，山东价格录得2555元/吨，河南价格录得 2635元 ...