新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-09 下游刚需采购 铅价仍陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-08，LME铅现货升水为-49.15美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17200 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至20.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至17225元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17200元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化0元/吨至17200元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化25元/ 吨至9900元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10250元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-08，沪铅主力合约开于17340元/吨，收于17340元/吨，较前一交易日变化50元/吨，全天交易日 成交38061手，较前一交易日变化-6447手，全天交易日持仓43107手，手较前一交易日变化-1837手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17380元/吨，最低点达到17275元/吨。夜盘方 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-09 基本面无亮点，镍不锈钢低幅震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-08日沪镍主力合约2601开于117900元/吨，收于118030元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.23%，当日成交量为 124513（+17296）手，持仓量为111585（-6051）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约表现符合高库存下的弱势震荡特征，价格在117,500-118,500元/吨区间窄幅波动，最 终小幅收涨 0.23%。技术面处于 20 日均线附近的弱平衡状态，基本面供需矛盾依然突出，高库存压制明显。宏观 面美联储降息及国内重要会议利好，带动大宗商品价格整体偏强。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场较为平静，镍矿价格维稳运行。市场基本处于有价无货，亟待北部矿山新 一轮招标出货。菲律宾方面，矿山多履行前期订单出货为主。下游镍铁价格略有回探，国内工厂多需年前备库， 部分铁厂刚需补库，对原料镍矿采购压价心态或将放缓。印尼方面，12月(一期)内贸基准价走跌0.52-0.91美元/湿吨， 内贸升水方面，主流升水去至+25，升水区间多在+25-26。整体镍矿内贸价格有所下跌。 现货方面：金 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-12-09 美联储12月议息会议在即 警惕"鹰派降息"风险 市场分析 美联储12月议息会议在即；现阶段市场普遍认为美联储很可能再次降息25个基点。市场将高度关注鲍威尔新闻发 布会问答环节，以及本年度最后一份"点阵图"。关于降息幅度及未来降息次数，美联储新任主席热门候选人哈塞 特认为，必须关注数据，同时审慎行动。经济数据方面，美国劳工统计局将不会发布10月生产者价格指数（PPI）。 由于政府停摆，劳工统计局正在延迟收集10月数据。根据其网站信息，劳工统计局计划在2026年1月14日发布的2025 年11月PPI新闻稿中一并公布10月数据。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-08，沪金主力合约开于962.34元/克，收于958.70元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.24%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于958.04元/克，收于953.50元/克，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.54%。 2025-12-08，沪银主力合约开于13666.00元/千克，收于13706.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.14%。当日成交 量为2033731手，持仓量为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Urea new order transactions have slowed down, and spot prices have loosened. In the fourth - quarter, gas - based plant maintenance starts in December, while coal - based plant maintenance has gradually recovered. All new production capacities in 2025 have been put into operation, so the urea supply remains stable. Currently, off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The operating rates of compound fertilizers in the Northeast and Hubei regions continue to rise, and production scheduling in Shandong has increased, leading to an overall increase in the operating rate. Melamine plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded with rigid demand for procurement. As off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export procurement activities progress, urea enterprises' shipments have improved. Factory inventories have decreased, while port inventories have slightly increased. However, the subsequent procurement pace may slow down. Currently, new order procurement has slightly slowed down. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement pace, the national off - season storage pace, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Urea Basis Structure - On December 8, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,646 yuan/ton (-27). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,690 yuan/ton (-30), and in Jiangsu it was 1,690 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was 44 yuan/ton (-3), in Henan was 44 yuan/ton (+7), and in Jiangsu was 44 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. II. Urea Output - As of December 8, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.82% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 billion tons (-73.4 million), and the port sample inventory was 0.105 billion tons (+5 million) [1]. III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 8, 2025, the urea production profit was 160 yuan/ton (-30), and the export profit was 859 yuan/ton (-52). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.53% (+3.47%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+0.86%) [1]. IV. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - No specific data summary other than the export profit of 859 yuan/ton (-52) on December 8, 2025, is provided. V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 8, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.53% (+3.47%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+0.86%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.35 days (+0.70) [1]. VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 8, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 billion tons (-73.4 million), and the port sample inventory was 0.105 billion tons (+5 million) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate and correct, and close the cash - and - carry arbitrage positions opportunistically. - Inter - delivery: Wait and see. - Inter - commodity: None [3].

流动性日报 | 2025-12-09 市场流动性概况 2025-12-08，股指板块成交6106.90亿元，较上一交易日变动-15.13%；持仓金额13286.35亿元，较上一交易日变动 -3.10%；成交持仓比为45.98%。 国债板块成交4816.39亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.83%；持仓金额7311.93亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.25%；成交持 仓比为66.15%。 基本金属板块成交5911.85亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.79%；持仓金额6942.25亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.27%；成 交持仓比为84.98%。 贵金属板块成交9960.60亿元，较上一交易日变动+25.28%；持仓金额4870.32亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.70%；成 交持仓比为308.88%。 能源化工板块成交4135.98亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.17%；持仓金额4599.47亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.78%； 成交持仓比为80.29%。 农产品板块成交3430.58亿元，较上一交易日变动+23.62%；持仓金额6047.49亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.65%；成 交持仓比为58.19%。 黑色建材板块成交2816 ...

油料日报 | 2025-12-09 豆一供应受阻价格坚挺，花生终端需求持续疲软 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4085.00元/吨，较前日变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.25%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01+15，较前日变化-10，幅度32.14%。 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆现货价格持稳运行。基层余粮持续消化，存量逐步见底，农户惜售情绪普 遍，构成市场价格底部的刚性支撑。贸易环节方面，市场流通节奏总体平缓，多数粮商已完成前期订单交付，现 阶段购销活跃度相对有限，买卖双方多持观望态度，交投氛围趋于谨慎。从供需结构来看，市场整体处于紧平衡 状态，预计短期大豆价格稳中偏强。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前 一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯 富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋 白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41% ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-09 下游产销平淡，玻碱震荡运行 钢材：基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3148元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3323元/吨。现货方面，钢材现货成交整体一般偏弱， 价格基本和昨日持稳，低价为主，全国建材成交9.39万吨。 供需与逻辑：供应端，成材供应有所回落，需求压力仍在。板材供需矛盾仍未解决。当前弱现实强预期叠加成本 托底，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储行情启动情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪悲观，铁矿弱势运行 供需与逻辑：目前铁矿石供需矛盾仍在持续积累，总库存连续攀升，但由于非市场化因素导致部分铁矿品种库存 被锁死，矿价居高不下。部分钢厂已经开启减产计划，且铁水后续仍有季节性回落预期。铁矿石正在加速滑向供 需失衡局面，后期如果外在因素解除，库存集中释放，矿价将面临巨大压力，关注铁矿后续谈判进展。 策略 单边：震荡 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、铁水产量、钢 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On December 5, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 511,600 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 720,100 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 952,800 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 94,300 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,861,600 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 34,800 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 83,000 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 271,200 contracts [1]. - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on a recent day. For example, SSE 50 ETF options had a call volume of 485,800 contracts, a put volume of 405,400 contracts, and a total volume of 891,200 contracts [18]. Option PCR - The turnover PCR and position PCR, along with their环比 changes, are provided for different options. For instance, SSE 50 ETF options had a turnover PCR of 0.68 (环比 change of -0.15) and a position PCR of 1.07 (环比 change of +0.09) [2][33]. Option VIX - The VIX and its环比 changes are presented for various options. For example, SSE 50 ETF options had a VIX of 13.69% (环比 change of -0.07%) [3][48].

流动性日报 | 2025-12-08 市场流动性概况 2025-12-05，股指板块成交7195.21亿元，较上一交易日变动+32.70%；持仓金额13711.25亿元，较上一交易日变动 +7.81%；成交持仓比为52.68%。 国债板块成交4594.65亿元，较上一交易日变动-27.52%；持仓金额7330.28亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.75%；成交持 仓比为63.76%。 基本金属板块成交5695.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-9.43%；持仓金额6923.72亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.82%；成 交持仓比为76.04%。 贵金属板块成交7950.46亿元，较上一交易日变动-23.83%；持仓金额4836.52亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.54%；成交 持仓比为252.49%。 能源化工板块成交3754.22亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.03%；持仓金额4635.84亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.21%；成 交持仓比为74.93%。 农产品板块成交2775.10亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.65%；持仓金额6086.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.08%；成 交持仓比为44.97%。 黑色建材板块成交2081 ...

'()*+,|-./0+ 2025-12-07 !"#$%&'()!"*+,'- !"#$ !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 蔡劭立 ( 0755-23887993 * caishaoli@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 高聪 ( 021-60828524 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 %&'()*&+, -./01201121289 3 !"#$ 近期美债长端利率延续抬升，10年期收益率升至4.14%，曲线陡化特征明显。当前对降 息预期修正仍是影响美债价格的主要因素。短端受宽松预期支撑具下行趋势，但长端 在供给压力、经济韧性与资金面扰动下不确定性突出。需继续关注数据驱动的节奏波 动与长端风险溢价变化。 %&'( ■ !"#$ | 核心观点 1 | | | --- | --- | | 重点解读 3 | | | !"#$ | 4 | | !"%& | 5 | | '()%& | 5 | | *+, | 6 | | !- ...