果蔬品日报 | 2026-02-05 苹果果农出现让价，红枣客商积极出货 苹果观点 红枣观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9594元/吨，较前一日变动+109元/吨，幅度+1.15%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.00元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1594，较前一日变动-109；陕西洛川70# 以 上半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1194，较前一日变动-109。 近期市场资讯，产区春节备货进入中后期，整体备货氛围仍显一般，礼盒类包装发货尚可。目前客商发前期包装 好货源为主，整体包装发运略有加快，主产区果农统货成交量一般，多以高次、三级果走货为主，部分果农急售 情绪加重。目前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，仍以客商发自存货源为主；甘肃产区静庄秦多以打包客商 货源发货为主，庆阳产区交易有所好转，走货尚可。山东产区成交一般，礼盒调货为主，少量75#货源、三级货源 出库为主。栖霞80#一二级片红果农货3.2-4.5元/斤，80#统货2.5-3元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库 ...

油脂日报 | 2026-02-05 待美生柴政策指引，盘面震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约9138.00元/吨，环比变化+44元，幅度+0.48%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8140.00 元/吨，环比变化+54.00元，幅度+0.67%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9243.00元/吨，环比变化+28.00元，幅度+0.30%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9070.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.44%，现货基差P05-68.00，环比变化 -4.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8420.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.48%，现货基差Y05+280.00， 环比变化-14.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9990.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元，幅度+0.20%，现货基差 OI05+747.00，环比变化-8.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：政策周期与听证安排：美国国税局发布45Z生物税收抵免拟议规则，将进行为期60天的公众评 议，并定于2026年5月28日举行听证会。该政策适用期限至2029年12月31日截止。SAF生产限制：禁止使用棕榈脂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The EG price is in a low - range, and there is a lack of short - term drivers. The overall fundamentals of EG are still weak, with significant inventory accumulation pressure from January to February, which may ease in March. The strategy suggests being cautiously bullish when the price drops to the low - range [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3788 yuan/ton (a change of + 21 yuan/ton or + 0.56% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3682 yuan/ton (a change of + 25 yuan/ton or + 0.68% from the previous trading day), and the East China spot basis of EG was - 105 yuan/ton (a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 908 yuan/ton (a decrease of 55 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - Not elaborated on in the text Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rates - Since mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been gradually implemented, and the weaving load and polyester load have accelerated their decline, with weakening rigid demand support [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 89.7 tons (an increase of 3.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 64.5 tons (an increase of 2.8 tons month - on - month). The total actual arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 13.6 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 2.8 tons. The total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 12.3 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 2.3 tons. Overall, it is neutral, and the inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable [1]

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-05 烧碱山东江苏去库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5155元/吨（+84）；华东基差-285元/吨（+6）;华南基差-215元/吨（-14）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4870元/吨（+90）；华南电石法报价4940元/吨（+70）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+0）；电石利润52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-744元/吨（+55）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利21元/吨（+70）；PVC出口利润8.3美元/吨（+20.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存29.0万吨（-1.8）；PVC社会库存58.5万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率79.98%（-0.16%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.61%（-2.43%）；PVC开工率77.13%（-0.85%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量96.0万吨（+7.6）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1978元/吨（+9）；山东32%液碱基差-134元/吨（-9）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价590元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1010元/ ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - Partial manufacturers' price cuts led to better order collection, with agricultural demand following up and industrial rigid demand declining. It is expected that prices will remain firm before the Spring Festival. In January, some gas - based and technological transformation enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers continued, and manufacturers started pre - holiday order collection. The off - season storage procurement is in the later stage, and 10% of off - season storage supplies are expected to be released in February. The compound fertilizer production was slightly affected by environmental protection, but overall it was at a moderately high level. The demand from downstream fertilizer users was approaching, and the shipment improved, with an expected decline in production before the Spring Festival. The melamine plant resumed production, increasing the rigid demand for procurement. Overall, the inventory in urea plants decreased slightly, while the port inventory increased slightly. Influenced by the situation in Iran, international urea prices rose. There is no new information on the domestic export quota, and future attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report shows the prices of Shandong and Henan urea small particles, Henan basis, urea main - contract closing price, and price spreads such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 [1][6][7] 2. Urea Output - It presents the weekly urea output and urea plant maintenance loss [19][20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production cost, production profit, and capacity utilization rates (including overall, coal - based, and natural - gas - based) of urea are shown [21][31][34] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - It includes the FOB prices of small - and large - sized urea in the Baltic, Southeast Asia, and China, as well as the price differences and export profits [38][41][51] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of outstanding orders are presented [52][53] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the factory inventory, port inventory, raw - material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, the number of urea warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main urea contract [54][59][62] Strategies - Unilateral: Volatile - Inter - period: Go long on the UR05 - 09 spread at low levels - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On February 4, 2026, the trading volume and positions of various sectors in the market showed different changes. The trading volume of the stock index, basic metals, precious metals, energy - chemical, and agricultural product sectors decreased, while the trading volume of the national debt and black building materials sectors increased. The positions of the basic metals, precious metals, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors increased, while the positions of the stock index and national debt sectors decreased [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - There are figures showing the trading - to - position ratio, trading volume change rate, position volume, position amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate [4][5][6][8] II. Stock Index Plate - Figures display the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate [5][18][19] III. National Debt Plate - Figures show the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the national debt plate [5][24][26] IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - Figures present the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate [5][31][34] V. Energy - Chemical Plate - Figures show the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy - chemical plate [5][36][43] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - Figures display the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural product plate [5][50][52] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - Figures show the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate [5][55][65]

甲醇日报 | 2026-02-05 港口库存开始回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤515元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润293元/吨（+13）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线1798元/吨（+13），内蒙北线基差119元/吨（-20），内蒙南线1800元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2180元/吨（-5）， 鲁南基差101元/吨（-37）；河南2005元/吨（+5），河南基差-74元/吨（-27）；河北2040元/吨（-30），河北基差21元/ 吨（-62）。隆众内地工厂库存368900吨（-55820），西北工厂库存189000吨（-53100）；隆众内地工厂待发订单287051 吨（+21391），西北工厂待发订单166000吨（+2200）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2238元/吨（+13），太仓基差-41元/吨（-19），CFR中国264美元/吨（-1），华东进口价差-26元/ 吨（+2），常州甲醇2280元/吨；广东甲醇2235元/吨（+10），广东基差-44元/吨（-22）。隆众港口总库存1411048吨 （-61003），江苏港口库存697148吨（-33703），浙江港 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain favorable. In the short - term, due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival, it is advisable to focus on position - holding risks and adopt a range - trading strategy. If the price correction is significant, one can consider going long at low prices [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 4, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 150,000 yuan/ton and closed at 147,220 yuan/ton, with a 1.32% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 311,897 lots, the holding volume was 359,912 lots (previous day: 355,770 lots), the basis was 4,100 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures), and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 34,114 lots, a change of 1,030 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 142,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 139,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, also a change of - 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,045 dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [2] Policy Impact - On January 30, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the capacity price mechanism on the power generation side. This policy encourages the construction and operation of long - term energy storage and expands the compensation scope, which will have a positive impact on energy storage demand and lithium carbonate prices [2] Inventory Situation - According to SMM statistics, the current spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a decrease of 1,044 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a decrease of 1,071 tons; downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventory is 50,850 tons, an increase of 1,280 tons. In December, the de - stocking pattern is expected to continue, but the pace has slowed down, and attention should be paid to whether there is an inventory inflection point at the end of the month [3] Strategy - Short - term: Focus on position - holding risks and mainly conduct range trading. - Unilateral trading: Consider going long at low prices if the price correction is large. - Inter - period trading: Not recommended. - Inter - variety trading: Not recommended. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [2] - Iron Ore: Short on rallies [5] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [7] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] 2. Core Views - The steel market is in the off - season with limited overall contradictions. The demand for steel products is weakening, inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to winter storage replenishment and raw material price changes [1] - The iron ore market is cautious. Although the supply is at a high level and the downstream demand is fair, the demand support will weaken as winter storage approaches the end, and attention should be paid to subsequent negotiations and steel mill replenishment [3][4] - The coking coal and coke market has supply - side disturbances. Coke production is stable, but demand is restricted. Coking coal supply is tightening, and demand is mainly for on - demand procurement. Attention should be paid to iron water output and finished product prices [6][7] - The thermal coal market has weakening supply and demand near the Spring Festival. The medium - and long - term supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market declined yesterday. The rebar futures main contract closed at 3,110 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,274 yuan/ton. The spot building materials market is in the off - season, with a national building materials transaction volume of 36,100 tons [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: In the off - season, the overall contradiction in the steel market is limited. The demand for rebar is weakened by the slow - down in market digestion and weak purchasing sentiment. The demand for hot - rolled coils has limited actual pulling effect. The steel inventory is accumulating before the festival, and the supply - demand pressure is slightly increasing [1] - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore price fluctuated slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotation enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 1.034 million tons, a 14% increase from the previous day [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly this period. Australian shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments increased significantly. The arrival volume of imported iron ore remained stable at a high level. The molten iron output is at a medium - high level in the same period, and the downstream demand is fair. The total inventory of 15 ports increased slightly, and steel mill inventories continued to grow. There is uncertainty in the long - term iron ore market. As winter storage for steel mills approaches the end, the demand support will weaken [3][4] - **Strategy**: Short on rallies for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal futures main contract closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, and the coke main contract closed at 1,770 yuan/ton. The coking coal auction prices showed mixed trends, and the market sentiment was average. Coking plants are mainly in normal production, with a good shipment enthusiasm and low inventory. Some coking plants want to raise prices further. Steel mills' purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and speculative demand is weak. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is in the range of 1,030 - 1,040 yuan/ton [6][7] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: For coke, after the first round of price increase, coking enterprises' profits have recovered, and production remains stable. However, due to the weakening of the terminal market, steel transactions have shrunk, prices have declined, and molten iron output has been suppressed. Steel mills mainly purchase on - demand. For coking coal, domestic coal mines are gradually entering the holiday period, and the supply is tightening. Coking enterprises' replenishment is almost complete, and the market is mainly for on - demand procurement [7] - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weak. Long - term agreement shipments are stable, but overall demand is declining as factories go on holiday and pre - Spring Festival replenishment is almost over. Some coal mines have sales difficulties and inventory pressure. At ports, the market is quiet, and prices are stable. The import market is relatively strong, and there is an expected reduction in future imports [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, both supply and demand of thermal coal are weakening, and coal prices are fluctuating. In the medium - and long - term, the supply pattern remains loose, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost - side disturbances in the propylene market have intensified, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of the demand side. The main drivers in the later stage lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side, the maintenance dynamics of major PDH plants, and the follow - up of downstream demand under cost pressure [1][2] - The supply of propylene has limited growth, with some PDH plants under maintenance and some restarted but not fully loaded. Downstream demand has rigid support, but as propylene prices rise, downstream costs are significantly pressured, and demand follow - up may be limited. The cost side has increased volatility [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6353 yuan/ton (+124), the East China spot price is 6490 yuan/ton (+0), the North China spot price is 6430 yuan/ton (+10), the East China basis is 137 yuan/ton (-124), the Shandong basis is 77 yuan/ton (-114), the operating rate is 70% (-1%), the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha is 251 US dollars/ton (-2), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 110 US dollars/ton (+4), the import profit is - 442 yuan/ton (-53), and the in - plant inventory is 42,790 tons (+3,810) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 32% (+1.29%), the production profit is - 230 yuan/ton (+40); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 73% (+0%), the production profit is - 375 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of n - butanol is 86% (-1%), the production profit is 951 yuan/ton (-7); the operating rate of octanol is 91% (-5%), the production profit is 1048 yuan/ton (-58); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 84% (+3%), the production profit is 192 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 69% (-6%), the production profit is - 857 yuan/ton (-107); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 88% (+3%), the production profit is - 766 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side**: Some PDH plants such as Juzhengyuan Phase II, Jinneng Phase II, and Zhongjing continue to be under maintenance. Some plants have restarted but the supply increase of propylene is still limited. Attention should be paid to the maintenance dynamics of major PDH plants in the later stage [2] - **Demand side**: Downstream rigid demand support continues. However, as propylene prices reach high levels, downstream costs are significantly pressured, and demand follow - up may be limited. The operating rates of downstream industries show mixed trends [2] - **Cost side**: International oil prices have rebounded and then fluctuated, and the external propane market has also rebounded. The cost side of propylene has increased volatility in the short term [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Inter - period**: No strategy - **Inter - variety**: No strategy [3]