Group 1 - The report indicates that liquidity is expected to remain comfortable in the upcoming week, with a stable transition across the quarter despite some fluctuations observed from September 23 to September 25, where the central bank's operations were relatively cautious [1][12] - On September 26, the central bank injected 600 billion yuan through a 14-day reverse repurchase agreement, which revitalized market sentiment and helped overnight funds recover to below 1.35%, supported by increased fiscal spending at the quarter's end [1][12] - Historical trends suggest that in October, funding rates typically operate around a central level, with early month conditions being relatively loose due to the easing of regulatory assessments and the influx of fiscal spending [18] Group 2 - The upcoming week will see nearly 1.7 trillion yuan in public market maturities, including 1.021 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, 500 billion yuan in buyout repos, and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits [3][24] - Government bonds are set to issue over 200 billion yuan, with planned issuances of 221 billion yuan in national bonds and 213 billion yuan in local bonds, while maturing national bonds total 2.594 trillion yuan and local bonds 946 billion yuan [4][35] - The willingness of major banks to lend has shown signs of recovery, with funding rates declining; for instance, DR001 decreased by 6.81 basis points to 1.32% as of October 10 [5][18]

Group 1: Demand - New housing transaction volume in 20 cities decreased by 61% week-on-week and 48% year-on-year, remaining below seasonal levels [13][15][29] - First-tier cities saw significant declines in new housing transactions, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing week-on-week drops of 78%, 72%, 61%, and 85% respectively [13][15] - Automotive consumption showed a notable increase, with average daily retail sales of passenger cars rising by 49.3% week-on-week, despite a year-on-year decline of 4.8% [38] Group 2: Production - PTA operating rate remained stable at 77.7%, while the operating rate for rebar decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 40.0% [47] - The operating rate for asphalt facilities increased to a year-to-date high of 40.1%, reflecting a 5.7 percentage point rise [47] - Downstream production rates for automotive tires decreased significantly, with full steel tire operating rates dropping by 14.9% and semi-steel tire rates by 18.3% [47][59] Group 3: Investment - Apparent consumption of rebar fell by 39.4% week-on-week to 146.0 million tons, with prices slightly decreasing to 3260.0 yuan per ton [62] - Cement shipment rates decreased week-on-week, with the cement price index dropping by 0.6% to 104.9 points [62][70] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to accelerate infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [1] Group 4: Trade - Port container throughput increased by 8.8% week-on-week, surpassing last year's levels, while the CCFI comprehensive index fell by 6.7% [73] - Export shipping prices continued to decline, with significant drops in rates for European and American routes [73][77] - The BDI index also experienced a decline of 4.4% week-on-week [73] Group 5: Prices - Agricultural product wholesale prices saw a slight decrease, with the 200 index dropping by 0.1% [83] - Pork prices fell by 2.7% week-on-week, while vegetable prices decreased by 2.9% [83][86] - The PPI for industrial products decreased by 0.2%, with Brent crude oil prices falling by 0.6% [87] Group 6: Interest Rate Bonds - As of October 10, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds reached 99.3%, with a total issuance of 19,862 billion yuan [102][104] - New general bonds issued totaled 6,717 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 84.0% [107] - The total issuance of government bonds for the year was 121,835 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of 55,837 billion yuan [109]

Industry Dynamics - Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT (Fund Code: 180607) is set to be launched for sale from October 13 to October 14, 2025, at a price of 5.281 yuan per share, with a total fundraising target of 1.5843 billion yuan. The public offering will consist of 27 million shares. During the offline inquiry phase, the REIT received inquiries from 149 institutional investors managing 1,014 allocation targets, with a total subscription amount of 23.6074 billion shares, which is 374.72 times the initial offline offering of 6.3 million shares, setting a new market record [1][7]. Primary Market - As of October 10, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs has reached 196.6 billion yuan, with a total of 75 REITs issued [8]. Market Performance - In the week from October 9 to October 10, 2025, the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell by 0.26%, while the REITs Total Index decreased by 0.25%. The Property REITs Index dropped by 0.29%, and the Operating Rights REITs Index declined by 0.16%. In terms of major asset classes, the REITs Total Index outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.27 percentage points but underperformed the CSI All Bond Index by 0.36 percentage points and the Nanhua Commodity Index by 0.71 percentage points. On an individual security level, E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT, Huatai Nanjing Jianye REIT, and Huaxia Jinyu Intelligent Manufacturing Park REIT led the gains with increases of 1.93%, 1.35%, and 1.03%, respectively. Conversely, Hongtu Shenzhen Anju REIT, CICC Vipshop Outlet REIT, and Huaxia Jinmao Commercial REIT experienced declines of -1.76%, -1.63%, and -1.63%, respectively [2][16]. Liquidity - Overall liquidity in the REITs market increased this week. The total trading volume of REITs (MA5) was 434 million yuan, up 0.4% from the previous week. The trading volumes for Property and Operating Rights REITs (MA5) were 301 million yuan and 134 million yuan, reflecting changes of 3.3% and -5.4%, respectively. Specifically, the MA5 trading volumes for various REIT categories this week were 54 million yuan for Park Infrastructure, 43 million yuan for Energy Infrastructure, 29 million yuan for Warehousing and Logistics, 34 million yuan for Affordable Rental Housing, 14 million yuan for Municipal Environmental Protection, 77 million yuan for Transportation Infrastructure, 164 million yuan for Consumer Infrastructure, and 21 million yuan for Data Center Infrastructure. The Consumer Infrastructure category accounted for 37.7% of the total trading volume [3][37]. Correlation - The correlation coefficients between the CSI REITs Index and major asset classes over different periods indicate varying relationships. For instance, the CSI REITs Index has a negative correlation with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index over the past 20 days, while it shows a positive correlation with the CSI All Bond Index [29][30].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the pricing mechanisms of 14-day OMO, MDS, and MLF, emphasizing that these tools are subject to a bidding process with multiple price points, and their pricing should theoretically be lower than market rates due to central bank backing [9][10] - The report highlights that the average winning bid rates for these tools are influenced by policy rates, market rates, the bank's own positions, and interbank conditions [10][11] - The expected average winning bid rates for various tools are projected, with 14-day OMO expected to maintain around 1.45%, 3M MDS at approximately 1.5%, and 1Y MLF at around 1.70% [12][13] Summary by Sections 1. Pricing of 14-day OMO, MDS, and MLF - The report outlines the operational changes since September 19, 2025, where the central bank restarted the 14-day OMO and adjusted it to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price points [9] - It notes that the 14-day OMO is not a regular operation and is typically concentrated around specific periods such as before the Spring Festival and late September [9] 2. Considerations for Bidding - Banks consider four main factors when bidding: policy rates, market rates, their own positions, and interbank conditions [10] - The 7-day OMO rate serves as a benchmark, currently at 1.4%, which influences the rates of other monetary policy tools [10] 3. Expected Winning Bid Rates - The report predicts that the 14-day OMO rate will remain around 1.45%, with historical spreads between 7-day and 14-day OMO rates being approximately 15 basis points [12] - It also anticipates that the 3M MDS will be around 1.5% and the 1Y MLF at approximately 1.70% [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [3][55]. Core Insights - The core bottleneck for solid-state battery performance and mass production is the densification of the solid-solid interface, which can be improved using isostatic pressing technology [5]. - Isostatic pressing technology effectively eliminates internal voids in battery cells, enhances inter-component contact, increases conductivity, and reduces volume changes during operation [5]. - The global isostatic pressing market is projected to reach 91.26 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.69% [27]. Summary by Sections Isostatic Pressing Equipment - Isostatic pressing machines are categorized into cold, warm, and hot types based on the temperature during forming and consolidation [20][21]. - Cold isostatic pressing operates at room temperature with pressures ranging from 100 to 630 MPa, while warm and hot types operate at temperatures not exceeding 500°C and 1000-2200°C, respectively [21][23]. Latest Developments of Leading Companies - Naconor is focusing on solid-state battery core equipment, including isostatic pressing technology, which is still in the R&D and validation stage [7]. - China Aviation Industry Corporation's subsidiary, Chuanxi Machinery, has produced over 1,500 isostatic pressing machines, widely used in defense and high-tech sectors [7]. Market Trends - The Asia-Pacific region is leading the global isostatic pressing market due to demand for high-performance components and favorable government policies [27]. - North America and Europe are emerging markets for isostatic pressing, driven by manufacturing in aerospace, automotive, and energy sectors [27]. Applications of Isostatic Pressing Technology - Isostatic pressing is applied in various industries, including ceramics, hard alloys, new energy, and refractory materials, to enhance density and performance [14]. - The technology ensures uniform pressure application, reducing internal stress and improving mechanical properties [26]. Equipment Development and Innovations - The HIPEX1850 hot isostatic pressing machine developed by China Steel Research is the second largest in the world, capable of processing large aerospace components [31]. - Sichuan Lieneng has developed the first large-diameter, high-pressure warm isostatic pressing machine in China, addressing equipment challenges for large ceramic parts [42].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [7] Core Insights - The report focuses on the treasury behavior of banks, explaining the "budget line" logic of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) and reviewing historical patterns to assist investors in assessing the interest rate levels of interbank CDs from a different analytical perspective [2][12]. - The "three principles" for issuing interbank CDs are: meeting regulatory indicators, ensuring safety of reserves, and balancing costs. These principles are dynamic and adjust according to market conditions and the bank's operational status [3][14]. - The average liability cost rate of state-owned and joint-stock banks serves as the "budget line" for pricing interbank CDs, with a focus on controlling costs and avoiding significant increases in financial expenses [4][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Logic of the "Budget Line" for Interbank CDs - The issuance of interbank CDs is primarily based on three principles: indicators must meet standards, reserves must be safe, and costs must be balanced. The emphasis on these principles can shift based on market conditions [3][14]. - As of September, the total balance of OMO, MLF, and MDS approaches 14 trillion, indicating a generally friendly attitude from the central bank towards liquidity [3][28]. - Treasury departments typically set the issuance rate of 1Y interbank CDs not to significantly exceed the average liability cost rate of the bank [30]. 2. Historical Review and Outlook of the "Budget Line" for CDs - From 2019 to the present, the 1Y interbank CD interest rate has generally formed a corridor with the 1Y MLF rate as the upper limit and the average liability cost rate as the lower limit. However, since Q2 2024, the interest rate has trended below the average liability cost rate [5][35]. - The decline in the average liability cost rate's lower limit function is attributed to the continuous decline in bank interest margins and the emergence of a trend where interest margins fall below non-performing loan rates [5][36]. - By H1 2025, the average liability maintenance rate for state-owned and joint-stock banks, excluding Postal Savings and China Merchants Bank, is projected to be 1.71%, indicating that the current 1Y interbank CD rate aligns closely with the "budget line" [6][42].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The current gold-oil price ratio is at a historically high level, second only to the negative pricing phase during the pandemic in 2020. The pricing factors differ, with crude oil being fundamentally priced and gold being macroeconomically priced [10][12]. - Oil prices have closely followed the fundamentals, slightly leading the US 10-year Treasury yield. Currently, OECD crude oil inventories are at a moderately low level, but oil prices have started to decline due to market expectations of a continued loose supply in 2026, which may exacerbate inventory accumulation [2][12]. - Gold prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors. Over the past decade, gold prices have shown a nearly negative correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield. As real interest rates decline, the attractiveness of gold increases. The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut starting in September 2025, with expectations of a decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield [3][17]. - The current demand for gold is also linked to central bank purchases in emerging markets, which have increased significantly since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Emerging market central banks hold a lower proportion of gold compared to developed market central banks, making this demand a significant factor in driving gold prices [18]. Summary by Sections 1. Gold-Oil Price Ratio - The current gold-oil price ratio is at a historically high level, second only to the negative pricing phase during the pandemic in 2020 [10]. - Oil prices have closely followed the fundamentals, slightly leading the US 10-year Treasury yield, with current OECD crude oil inventories at a moderately low level [2][12]. - Market expectations of a continued loose supply in 2026 may exacerbate inventory accumulation, leading to a decline in oil prices [12][13]. 2. Pricing Mechanisms - Crude oil is fundamentally priced, while gold is macroeconomically priced [16]. - Gold prices have shown a nearly negative correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield, with real interest rates impacting gold's attractiveness [3][17]. - The anticipated rate cut in the US and the expected decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield are significant for gold pricing [17]. 3. Central Bank Demand - Increased purchases of gold by emerging market central banks since the Russia-Ukraine conflict have contributed to rising gold prices [18].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded for groundbreaking discoveries in "peripheral immune tolerance," highlighting the development potential of regulatory T cells (Treg) in autoimmune diseases, cancer, and organ transplantation [1][2] - Key research findings include the identification of Treg cells by Shimon Sakaguchi in 1995 and the discovery of the FOXP3 gene's role in Treg development and function by Mary E. Brunkow and Fred Ramsdell in 2001 [2] - The "peripheral immune tolerance" mechanism offers therapeutic avenues for various diseases, including enhancing Treg function for autoimmune diseases, inhibiting Treg activity in cancer to allow immune system attacks on tumors, and improving organ transplant acceptance [3] Summary by Sections - **Therapeutic Development**: Multiple therapies targeting the Treg mechanism are currently undergoing clinical validation, with companies like RegCell and Sonoma Biotherapeutics founded by the awarded scientists focusing on Treg therapies [4] - **Market Opportunities**: Chinese companies such as Cellin Biotech and Bionautics are also entering this field, targeting diseases like amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis through Treg therapies [4] - **Targeted Therapy Challenges**: The main challenge in Treg-targeted therapies is selectivity, requiring drugs to distinguish between harmful tumor-infiltrating Tregs and beneficial peripheral Tregs [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies to watch include Lixin Pharmaceutical (CCR8 antibody LM-108), Kangyuan Pharmaceutical (CCR8 antibody KYS2301), and others developing CTLA-4 and CCR8 antibodies [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 800 million in Q2 2025, representing a 26% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 60 million, down 47% year-on-year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.8 billion, up 34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 150 million, down 23% year-on-year [1] - The revenue growth is attributed to the consolidation of Hubei Sibao [1] - The company's product revenue breakdown shows that infant hygiene products accounted for 52.9% of total revenue, adult hygiene products 36.31%, and other products 10.79% [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast for the company, expecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 350 million, 410 million, and 470 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20X, 17X, and 15X [4] - The financial data indicates a projected revenue growth rate of 32.44% for 2025, followed by 10.08% and 10.73% in subsequent years [4] - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 514.52 million in 2025, with a slight decline in net profit margins over the forecast period [4] Business Strategy - The company plans to focus resources on increasing online promotion efforts, enhancing its own brand development, and optimizing product structure [2] - New product innovations include easy-to-wear menstrual pants and ultra-breathable materials, which have already been launched in the market [3] - The company has established deep collaborations with major clients, including global brands and emerging domestic brands, which is expected to enhance its market presence [3]

策略报告 | 投资策略 王澄睿 联系人 wangchengrui@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《投资策略：投资策略-平稳的十一》 2025-10-08 2 《投资策略：投资策略-A 股动静框架 之静态指标》 2025-10-08 3 《投资策略：十一大事与大类资产梳 理 -政 策 与 大 类 资 产 配 置 月 观 察 》 2025-10-07 2025 年 10 月 10 日 作者 吴开达 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524030001 wukaida@tfzq.com 孙希民 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524110002 sunximin@tfzq.com 黄金牛与黄金股的关系 策略专题 证券研究报告 核心结论：复盘上一轮黄金牛市，黄金股最具弹性区间往往发生在黄金价格 中枢上移趋势的进一步确认之后。本轮黄金大周期的黄金股最具弹性区间刚 刚启动。观察本轮黄金牛市，万得黄金行业指数与金价波动基本一致，且在 2024 年之前并未展现出较高的弹性。除了时间维度的启动，空间上，本轮 黄金股拉升幅度与区间长度远小于上一轮黄金牛市，也远小于费城金银指数 的弹性区间。复盘本轮金价上涨导致的黄 ...