Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [3][55]. Core Insights - The core bottleneck for solid-state battery performance and mass production is the densification of the solid-solid interface, which can be improved using isostatic pressing technology [5]. - Isostatic pressing technology effectively eliminates internal voids in battery cells, enhances inter-component contact, increases conductivity, and reduces volume changes during operation [5]. - The global isostatic pressing market is projected to reach 91.26 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.69% [27]. Summary by Sections Isostatic Pressing Equipment - Isostatic pressing machines are categorized into cold, warm, and hot types based on the temperature during forming and consolidation [20][21]. - Cold isostatic pressing operates at room temperature with pressures ranging from 100 to 630 MPa, while warm and hot types operate at temperatures not exceeding 500°C and 1000-2200°C, respectively [21][23]. Latest Developments of Leading Companies - Naconor is focusing on solid-state battery core equipment, including isostatic pressing technology, which is still in the R&D and validation stage [7]. - China Aviation Industry Corporation's subsidiary, Chuanxi Machinery, has produced over 1,500 isostatic pressing machines, widely used in defense and high-tech sectors [7]. Market Trends - The Asia-Pacific region is leading the global isostatic pressing market due to demand for high-performance components and favorable government policies [27]. - North America and Europe are emerging markets for isostatic pressing, driven by manufacturing in aerospace, automotive, and energy sectors [27]. Applications of Isostatic Pressing Technology - Isostatic pressing is applied in various industries, including ceramics, hard alloys, new energy, and refractory materials, to enhance density and performance [14]. - The technology ensures uniform pressure application, reducing internal stress and improving mechanical properties [26]. Equipment Development and Innovations - The HIPEX1850 hot isostatic pressing machine developed by China Steel Research is the second largest in the world, capable of processing large aerospace components [31]. - Sichuan Lieneng has developed the first large-diameter, high-pressure warm isostatic pressing machine in China, addressing equipment challenges for large ceramic parts [42].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [7] Core Insights - The report focuses on the treasury behavior of banks, explaining the "budget line" logic of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) and reviewing historical patterns to assist investors in assessing the interest rate levels of interbank CDs from a different analytical perspective [2][12]. - The "three principles" for issuing interbank CDs are: meeting regulatory indicators, ensuring safety of reserves, and balancing costs. These principles are dynamic and adjust according to market conditions and the bank's operational status [3][14]. - The average liability cost rate of state-owned and joint-stock banks serves as the "budget line" for pricing interbank CDs, with a focus on controlling costs and avoiding significant increases in financial expenses [4][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Logic of the "Budget Line" for Interbank CDs - The issuance of interbank CDs is primarily based on three principles: indicators must meet standards, reserves must be safe, and costs must be balanced. The emphasis on these principles can shift based on market conditions [3][14]. - As of September, the total balance of OMO, MLF, and MDS approaches 14 trillion, indicating a generally friendly attitude from the central bank towards liquidity [3][28]. - Treasury departments typically set the issuance rate of 1Y interbank CDs not to significantly exceed the average liability cost rate of the bank [30]. 2. Historical Review and Outlook of the "Budget Line" for CDs - From 2019 to the present, the 1Y interbank CD interest rate has generally formed a corridor with the 1Y MLF rate as the upper limit and the average liability cost rate as the lower limit. However, since Q2 2024, the interest rate has trended below the average liability cost rate [5][35]. - The decline in the average liability cost rate's lower limit function is attributed to the continuous decline in bank interest margins and the emergence of a trend where interest margins fall below non-performing loan rates [5][36]. - By H1 2025, the average liability maintenance rate for state-owned and joint-stock banks, excluding Postal Savings and China Merchants Bank, is projected to be 1.71%, indicating that the current 1Y interbank CD rate aligns closely with the "budget line" [6][42].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The current gold-oil price ratio is at a historically high level, second only to the negative pricing phase during the pandemic in 2020. The pricing factors differ, with crude oil being fundamentally priced and gold being macroeconomically priced [10][12]. - Oil prices have closely followed the fundamentals, slightly leading the US 10-year Treasury yield. Currently, OECD crude oil inventories are at a moderately low level, but oil prices have started to decline due to market expectations of a continued loose supply in 2026, which may exacerbate inventory accumulation [2][12]. - Gold prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors. Over the past decade, gold prices have shown a nearly negative correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield. As real interest rates decline, the attractiveness of gold increases. The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut starting in September 2025, with expectations of a decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield [3][17]. - The current demand for gold is also linked to central bank purchases in emerging markets, which have increased significantly since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Emerging market central banks hold a lower proportion of gold compared to developed market central banks, making this demand a significant factor in driving gold prices [18]. Summary by Sections 1. Gold-Oil Price Ratio - The current gold-oil price ratio is at a historically high level, second only to the negative pricing phase during the pandemic in 2020 [10]. - Oil prices have closely followed the fundamentals, slightly leading the US 10-year Treasury yield, with current OECD crude oil inventories at a moderately low level [2][12]. - Market expectations of a continued loose supply in 2026 may exacerbate inventory accumulation, leading to a decline in oil prices [12][13]. 2. Pricing Mechanisms - Crude oil is fundamentally priced, while gold is macroeconomically priced [16]. - Gold prices have shown a nearly negative correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield, with real interest rates impacting gold's attractiveness [3][17]. - The anticipated rate cut in the US and the expected decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield are significant for gold pricing [17]. 3. Central Bank Demand - Increased purchases of gold by emerging market central banks since the Russia-Ukraine conflict have contributed to rising gold prices [18].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded for groundbreaking discoveries in "peripheral immune tolerance," highlighting the development potential of regulatory T cells (Treg) in autoimmune diseases, cancer, and organ transplantation [1][2] - Key research findings include the identification of Treg cells by Shimon Sakaguchi in 1995 and the discovery of the FOXP3 gene's role in Treg development and function by Mary E. Brunkow and Fred Ramsdell in 2001 [2] - The "peripheral immune tolerance" mechanism offers therapeutic avenues for various diseases, including enhancing Treg function for autoimmune diseases, inhibiting Treg activity in cancer to allow immune system attacks on tumors, and improving organ transplant acceptance [3] Summary by Sections - **Therapeutic Development**: Multiple therapies targeting the Treg mechanism are currently undergoing clinical validation, with companies like RegCell and Sonoma Biotherapeutics founded by the awarded scientists focusing on Treg therapies [4] - **Market Opportunities**: Chinese companies such as Cellin Biotech and Bionautics are also entering this field, targeting diseases like amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis through Treg therapies [4] - **Targeted Therapy Challenges**: The main challenge in Treg-targeted therapies is selectivity, requiring drugs to distinguish between harmful tumor-infiltrating Tregs and beneficial peripheral Tregs [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies to watch include Lixin Pharmaceutical (CCR8 antibody LM-108), Kangyuan Pharmaceutical (CCR8 antibody KYS2301), and others developing CTLA-4 and CCR8 antibodies [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 800 million in Q2 2025, representing a 26% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 60 million, down 47% year-on-year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.8 billion, up 34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 150 million, down 23% year-on-year [1] - The revenue growth is attributed to the consolidation of Hubei Sibao [1] - The company's product revenue breakdown shows that infant hygiene products accounted for 52.9% of total revenue, adult hygiene products 36.31%, and other products 10.79% [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast for the company, expecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 350 million, 410 million, and 470 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20X, 17X, and 15X [4] - The financial data indicates a projected revenue growth rate of 32.44% for 2025, followed by 10.08% and 10.73% in subsequent years [4] - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 514.52 million in 2025, with a slight decline in net profit margins over the forecast period [4] Business Strategy - The company plans to focus resources on increasing online promotion efforts, enhancing its own brand development, and optimizing product structure [2] - New product innovations include easy-to-wear menstrual pants and ultra-breathable materials, which have already been launched in the market [3] - The company has established deep collaborations with major clients, including global brands and emerging domestic brands, which is expected to enhance its market presence [3]

策略报告 | 投资策略 王澄睿 联系人 wangchengrui@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《投资策略：投资策略-平稳的十一》 2025-10-08 2 《投资策略：投资策略-A 股动静框架 之静态指标》 2025-10-08 3 《投资策略：十一大事与大类资产梳 理 -政 策 与 大 类 资 产 配 置 月 观 察 》 2025-10-07 2025 年 10 月 10 日 作者 吴开达 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524030001 wukaida@tfzq.com 孙希民 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524110002 sunximin@tfzq.com 黄金牛与黄金股的关系 策略专题 证券研究报告 核心结论：复盘上一轮黄金牛市，黄金股最具弹性区间往往发生在黄金价格 中枢上移趋势的进一步确认之后。本轮黄金大周期的黄金股最具弹性区间刚 刚启动。观察本轮黄金牛市，万得黄金行业指数与金价波动基本一致，且在 2024 年之前并未展现出较高的弹性。除了时间维度的启动，空间上，本轮 黄金股拉升幅度与区间长度远小于上一轮黄金牛市，也远小于费城金银指数 的弹性区间。复盘本轮金价上涨导致的黄 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 利率专题 证券研究报告 国债新老券利差如何演绎？ 愈发难以博弈的国债新老券利差 理论上讲，新老券利差应为正值，且在上市初期、切券之后两个时间段出 现利差走阔，切券后一段时间利差达到峰值，随后回落至趋向于零。实际 来看规律逐渐"失效"。具体来看 10Y 和 30Y 国债的新老券利差表现： 1）上市与切券之后，新老券利差最大走阔幅度统计 平均来看，10Y（30Y）国债在上市后的 13（11）个交易日达到第一个利差 峰值，新老券利差最大走阔 1.85BP(1.27BP)；在上市后的 22(30)个交易日成 为活跃券，切券后 44(58)个交易日达到第二个利差峰值，新老券利差最大 走阔 3.07BP(4.31BP)。 不过，从最近的切券经验来看，对于有潜力成为活跃券的新券，市场会快 速参与并加快切券节奏，新老券利差的策略空间被压缩。例如，10Y 国债 250011 上市次日即完成切券，切券之后，新老券利差最大走阔幅度仅 0.45BP。30Y 特别国债 2500002 在上市的 8 个交易日后也顺利成为活跃券。 切券之后，新老券利差最大走阔幅度仅 2.95BP，也处于历史中等偏低水平。 新老 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.2 billion in Q2 2025, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 120 million, down 16% [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.4 billion, a decrease of 2%, and a net profit of 240 million, down 8% [1] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 26.82%, showing a slight increase of 0.41% [1] - The overseas market revenue reached 1.81 billion, accounting for 75.9% of total revenue, indicating strong international performance despite a complex environment [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2025 was 2.4 billion, with a net profit of 240 million, reflecting a decrease of 8% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 26.82%, supported by internal cost improvements and technological innovations [1] - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 500 million, 560 million, and 630 million respectively [4] International Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity in Thailand, which is expected to cover over 60% of North American orders [2] - The overseas market strategy includes strengthening existing markets and exploring new opportunities in Europe and the Belt and Road Initiative [1][2] - The company’s cross-border e-commerce business saw a revenue increase of 82.8% year-on-year, indicating successful channel expansion [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on smart manufacturing upgrades and product innovation to enhance competitiveness [3] - The product categories such as water purifiers and smart home applications are gaining market traction, contributing to sustainable growth [3] - The company has established strong partnerships with major retailers like Lowe's and The Home Depot, leading to a 45.7% increase in channel revenue [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 230 million yuan in Q2 2025, a 15% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30 million yuan, up 3% year-on-year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 420 million yuan, also a 15% increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 million yuan, reflecting a 1% increase [1] - The company has a strong order backlog of 2-3 months and can dynamically adjust production capacity based on orders, enhancing customer responsiveness [1] - The completion of fundraising projects, such as the annual production of 16.5 million square meters of architectural shading new materials, supports future sales expansion [1] Product Structure - The company boasts a rich and diverse product structure, having developed over a hundred product series and thousands of specifications, making it one of the most comprehensive manufacturers in the industry [2] - The ability to customize products according to regional and customer needs allows the company to meet diverse customer demands quickly [2] - The company focuses on a differentiated competition strategy, producing high-cost performance products tailored to different markets [2] Marketing Strategy - The company has established a marketing strategy that integrates online and offline channels, as well as domestic and international approaches [3] - It is actively expanding its cross-border e-commerce business and has formed strategic partnerships to enhance logistics efficiency and shorten delivery times [3] - The company aims to deepen its marketing system, expand multi-channel operations, and enhance brand recognition and reputation [3] Financial Forecast - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 130 million, 148 million, and 183 million yuan respectively [4] - The company anticipates continued growth in revenue, with projections of 983 million yuan in 2025, 1.19 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.47 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 20.32%, 21.23%, and 23.64% respectively [8]

Group 1: Macro Overview - In Q3 2025, major asset classes showed strong performance, with the Asia-Pacific stock indices generally strong, and A-shares quickly breaking through 3800 points before experiencing high-level fluctuations [2][19] - The macroeconomic environment remains weak, with PPI showing a year-on-year decline and three major economic indicators falling for two consecutive months [19] - The liquidity situation improved in Q3, with M1 continuing to rise since March, and the M1-M2 gap narrowing for four consecutive months [19] Group 2: Credit Market Insights - In Q3, the credit market exhibited structural resilience, with certain credit varieties experiencing significant declines, particularly long-end bonds, which saw yields rise by over 30 basis points [3][22] - The behavior of institutional investors shifted, with an increase in the proportion of credit bonds in net purchases, indicating a gradual realization of the value of credit coupons [22] - Looking ahead to Q4 and 2026, the credit market may see a revaluation of credit assets, especially if new regulations on public fund sales are implemented [3][22] Group 3: Construction Materials Sector - During the holiday period from September 29 to October 7, the Hong Kong construction materials index rose by 2.55%, with glass products performing the best [4] - The current valuation of glass products is below the 50th percentile of the past three years, while cement companies are performing better, indicating potential for growth in undervalued segments [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a plan to stabilize growth in the construction materials industry, which aims to address structural issues and improve competition [4] Group 4: Company-Specific Performance - Hengdian East Magnetic achieved a revenue of 11.936 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%, with a significant growth in its photovoltaic business [7] - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan and a net profit of 19.492 billion yuan in H1 2025, driven by volume growth despite pressure on pricing [24][26] - Songlin Technology's revenue in H1 2025 was 1.1 billion yuan from its health and smart kitchen businesses, as it officially entered the robotics field [31][32]