Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [2] Core Viewpoints - The 2025-2026 work plan for the petrochemical industry emphasizes stable growth while focusing on economic benefits and high-quality development [4][14] - The plan sets a target for an average annual industrial value-added growth of over 5% and highlights the importance of economic efficiency recovery, innovation, and fine extension [18][19] - The 2025 version of the work plan introduces new measures such as optimizing pilot project management and emphasizes digital and green transformation [5][19] Summary by Sections 1. Work Plan Release - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other ministries jointly issued the "Petrochemical Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" on September 25, 2025 [3][13] 2. Goals and Measures Comparison - The 2025 version maintains a similar average annual growth target of 5% for industrial value-added but places greater emphasis on economic efficiency recovery and detailed targets for innovation and environmental goals [4][19] - The 2025 work plan introduces measures focusing on optimizing supply and enhancing project management, contrasting with the 2023 version's emphasis on major project construction [5][26] 3. Industry Challenges and Responses - The petrochemical industry faces intensified competition and a slowdown in domestic demand, necessitating structural adjustments and a focus on high-quality development [14][18] - The work plan aims to address issues of overcapacity and promote innovation to enhance competitiveness [17][19] 4. Integration with National Policies - The work plan aligns with the "National Unified Market" initiative, aiming for structural optimization and high-quality development in the petrochemical sector [6][14] - The integration of policies from both the industry and government levels is expected to effectively tackle the challenges faced by the petrochemical industry [6][14] 5. Future Investment Opportunities - The shift from a focus on expansion to optimizing existing capacities indicates potential investment opportunities in high-end materials and recovery of price cycles [7][19]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that lithography machines are the largest segment in semiconductor equipment, with continuous growth opportunities driven by increasing semiconductor demand [4][10]. - The evolution of lithography technology focuses on enhancing resolution and reducing critical dimensions, guided by the Raleigh criterion [4][17]. - The global lithography machine market is projected to grow from approximately $258.4 billion in 2022 to $315 billion by 2024 [10][25]. Market Review - In the week of September 22-26, the overall A-share market rose by 0.25%, with semiconductor-related concepts performing strongly [4]. - The average daily trading volume for the A-share market reached 2.3092 trillion yuan, a decrease of 207.1 billion yuan from the previous week [4]. - The net inflow of funds into the semiconductor sector was significant, with major funds flowing into semiconductor and 5G application concepts [4][55]. Key Themes - Lithography Machines: SMIC has initiated domestic lithography machine validation, indicating potential breakthroughs in "bottleneck" technologies [5][25]. - AI and Robotics: The report highlights a surge in policy-driven demand for AI, marking a significant growth phase for the industry [5]. - Humanoid Robots: The introduction of new products signifies the arrival of the "humanoid robot era," accelerating the industrialization process [5]. Policy Dynamics - The report outlines several policies aimed at modernizing the industrial system and promoting technological innovation, emphasizing the importance of advanced manufacturing [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has committed to achieving new industrialization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on high-quality development [6]. Industry Trends - AI and robotics are leading industrial transformation, with global cooperation and technological implementation accelerating [7]. - The report notes that the online sales of digital products, including smart wearables, computers, and mobile phones, have seen over 20% growth from January to August [7]. Lithography Machine Insights - The lithography process is critical in semiconductor manufacturing, accounting for about one-third of overall manufacturing costs and taking up 40%-50% of the time [10][15]. - The complexity of lithography machines is highlighted, with numerous subsystems integrated to achieve high precision [25]. - The domestic lithography machine market in China has surpassed 16.087 billion yuan in 2023, with a production of 124 units [25].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.43 CNY, based on a PEG valuation method [6][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leader in the variable frequency transformer market, benefiting from the steady growth in demand for high-voltage variable frequency drives driven by energy efficiency needs and policy support [2][40]. - The company has a strong market presence with over 25% market share in the variable frequency transformer sector, being one of the earliest manufacturers in China [2][47]. - The company is expanding into new business areas such as data centers, with products like phase-shifting transformers and solid-state transformers under development, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [3][50]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1985, the company specializes in various types of special transformers, power transformers, reactors, and energy storage products, with a focus on variable frequency transformers [1][13]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the actual controllers holding 56.75% of the shares [13]. Main Business - The company is a leading manufacturer of variable frequency transformers, which are essential components of high-voltage variable frequency drives, accounting for approximately 29% of their cost structure [2][44]. - The demand for high-voltage variable frequency drives is expected to continue growing, which will drive the demand for variable frequency transformers upward [2][42]. Incremental Business - Data Centers - The company is developing products for data centers, including phase-shifting transformers and solid-state transformers, which are anticipated to enhance efficiency and meet the evolving needs of modern data centers [3][50]. - The phase-shifting transformer is already being applied in Panama's power supply systems, demonstrating significant efficiency improvements [51]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 478.3 million, 623.4 million, and 833.18 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.9%, 30.3%, and 33.6% respectively [4][5]. - The company is expected to return to profitability in 2025, with a net profit forecast of 42.4 million CNY, following a loss in 2024 [4][36].

Market Analysis - The market shows a calendar effect around the National Day holiday, with a median return of -0.81% in the five trading days before the holiday and a strong median return of 2.27% in the first five trading days after the holiday, with an 80% win rate [1][11][12] - Post-holiday, small-cap indices lead the gains in the first phase, while the second phase sees a general pullback, followed by a resurgence in small-cap performance in the third phase, and a stronger performance from large-cap indices in the fourth phase [2][16][18] Domestic Economic Indicators - Industrial enterprise profits saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.40% in August, with cumulative profits turning positive for the first eight months of the year [3][27] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, highlighting challenges such as insufficient domestic demand [3][38][39] - The transportation sector shows a decline in subway passenger volume, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior [3][41] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index growth aligns with market expectations, indicating stable inflationary pressures, with a probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October at 87.7% [4][53][54] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, economic recovery with a "stronger stronger" market style, and the continued rise of undervalued sectors [5][56]

2025 年 09 月 28 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市（维持评级） | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 作者 刘奕町 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110523050001 liuyiting@tfzq.com 曾先毅 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524060002 zengxianyi@tfzq.com 胡十尹 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525010002 hushiyin@tfzq.com 吴亚宁 联系人 wuyaning@tfzq.com 行业走势图 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:降息预 期兑现，有色阶段性回调》2025-09-21 2 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:降息预 期强化，工业金属和贵金属共振》 2025-09-14 3 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:八月非 金属与材料 证券研究报告 铜：Grasberg 影响定量，强化矿紧逻辑 基本金属：铜价突破领涨有色，铝市成本下移静待需求改善。1）铜：本周铜价震荡上行，沪铜收于 81890 元/吨。本周国内沪铜盘面 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Views - The pig farming sector has entered a loss phase, with a focus on the negative expectations for the sector. The average price of pigs has dropped to 12.76 CNY/kg, a decrease of 1.39% from the previous week, leading to a loss of 54 CNY per head for self-breeding and self-raising operations [2][11]. - The dairy and beef sectors are experiencing a potential new cycle, with a significant reduction in dairy cow inventory by nearly 8%. The price of raw milk is expected to bottom out, while beef prices may see an upward trend [3][13]. - The pet industry is witnessing the rise of domestic brands, with a notable increase in pet food exports, indicating a robust growth in the pet economy [4][14]. - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding imports and consumer demand, particularly for white and yellow chickens, while egg-laying enterprises are achieving record profits [5][20]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The industry is currently in a loss phase, with the average pig price at 12.76 CNY/kg and a loss of 54 CNY per head for self-breeding operations. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is at a historical high [2][11]. - The market is expected to see a reduction in production capacity due to ongoing low prices and policy guidance [12]. Beef and Dairy Sector - The price of live cattle is 27.14 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. The raw milk price is stable at 3.03 CNY/kg, with expectations for a recovery in prices as production capacity clears [3][13]. - Companies with mother cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [13]. Pet Industry - The domestic pet food market is growing rapidly, with significant sales increases noted in both cat and dog food categories. Exports of pet food have also risen, reflecting a healthy market [4][14]. - Key companies to watch include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [4][14]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is facing uncertainties in breeding imports, with a 26.9% year-on-year decrease in breeding stock updates. The yellow chicken market is sensitive to demand changes, with expectations for price improvements in the latter half of the year [5][19]. - Leading companies in the poultry sector include Shengnong Development and Yisheng Co. [17][19]. Seed and Agricultural Sector - The seed industry is poised for a turnaround, with a focus on biotechnology and transgenic crops to enhance production efficiency. Key companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [6][22]. - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at increasing crop yields and improving food security [22]. Feed and Animal Health Sector - The feed sector is recommended for investment, particularly Haida Group, which is expected to gain market share as smaller competitors exit the market [7][23]. - The animal health sector is focusing on innovative products to break through market saturation, with a growing demand in the pet health market [7][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 9.843 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.66%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 78 million yuan, up 258.01%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items soared by 1602.64% to 78 million yuan [1]. - The platform business saw a slight revenue decline to 436 million yuan in H1 2025, but the company enhanced product diversity, increasing the average monthly SKU count to approximately 4 million, significantly meeting diverse user needs [2]. - The self-operated business generated 9.389 billion yuan in revenue, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, with improvements in operational capabilities across four dimensions: product variety, delivery speed, quality, and cost efficiency [3]. - The proprietary brand business recorded a transaction scale of 1.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115.6%, with proprietary brand transactions reaching 852 million yuan, up approximately 473.4% [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with net profit estimates adjusted to 179 million yuan, 403 million yuan, and 650 million yuan respectively, indicating strong growth potential [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 9.843 billion yuan, with a significant increase in net profit and cash flow, indicating robust financial health [1]. Platform Business - The platform business experienced a slight revenue decline but improved product offerings, focusing on traditional Chinese medicine with a notable increase in SKU count [2]. Self-Operated Business - The self-operated segment showed strong revenue growth, with enhancements in delivery efficiency and product quality, contributing to overall operational improvements [3]. Proprietary Brand Business - The proprietary brand initiative has become a key growth driver, with substantial increases in transaction volumes, showcasing the effectiveness of the brand strategy [4]. Profit Forecasts - The upward revision of profit forecasts reflects confidence in the company's growth trajectory, supported by strong performance in both platform and self-operated businesses [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company's domestic performance is under short-term pressure due to factors such as medical insurance cost control and intensified market competition, while its overseas business continues to grow significantly [2][4] - The company has seen a decline in its main business revenue domestically, with a 21.08% decrease to 5.42 billion yuan, while overseas revenue increased by 26.00% to 1.29 billion yuan [2] - The company is advancing its self-produced instruments and assembly lines steadily, with a total of 546 new installations domestically and 544 installations overseas in the first half of 2025 [3] - The company has launched innovative digital business initiatives, including a diabetes management platform and an intelligent clinical laboratory software system, enhancing its AI+IVD strategy [4] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 808 million yuan, a decrease of 15.79% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 26.27 million yuan, down 84.82% year-on-year [1] - The company’s R&D expense ratio increased to 17.41%, reflecting a focus on innovation despite the revenue decline [3] - The financial forecast estimates operating revenues of 2.19 billion yuan, 2.58 billion yuan, and 3.05 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 564 million yuan, 580 million yuan, and 583 million yuan for the same years [4][10]

Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, selling them once growth is realized and PE increases, thus achieving a "double-click" effect on earnings per share (EPS) and PE [1][8] - The strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, outperforming the benchmark by 21.08% [1][9] - Year-to-date, the strategy has delivered an absolute return of 54.23%, exceeding the CSI 500 index by 27.77%, with a weekly excess return of 0.52% [1][10] Group 2: Net Profit Gap Strategy - The Net Profit Gap strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises and "gap" indicates a significant upward price jump on the first trading day after earnings announcements [2][12] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.39%, outperforming the benchmark by 26.34% [2][13] - The current year's absolute return for the strategy is 56.13%, with an excess return over the benchmark of 29.67%, although it recorded a weekly excess return of -0.30% [2][13] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, utilizing PB-ROE and PEG factors to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and growth potential [3][15] - The strategy has shown stable excess returns in historical backtesting, with a year-to-date excess return of 17.56% over the CSI 300 index, a weekly excess return of -0.60%, and a monthly excess return of 1.01% [3][17]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is in an upward trend, with the key observation variable being whether the market's profit effect can be sustained. As long as the profit effect remains positive, incremental funds are expected to continue entering the market [2][10][14] - The current WIND All A trend line is around 6184 points, with a profit effect of approximately 0.66%, still positive. It is advised to hold positions until the profit effect turns negative [2][10][14] - The industry allocation model suggests that the precious metals sector is still in an upward trend and should be monitored. Additionally, sectors benefiting from policy-driven initiatives, such as new energy and chemicals, are expected to perform well [2][10][14] Market Overview - The market is currently showing a profit effect of about 0.66%, indicating a positive environment for investment. The report suggests maintaining positions until the profit effect turns negative [2][10][14] - The valuation indicators for the WIND All A index show a PE at the 85th percentile and a PB at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level [2][10][14] - The report recommends an 80% allocation to absolute return products based on the current market conditions and trends [2][10][14] Industry Focus - The report highlights the precious metals sector as a continuing upward trend, which should be closely monitored [2][10][14] - The technology sector, particularly chips and robotics, is recommended for continued focus based on the TWO BETA model [2][10][14] - Given the uncertainties surrounding the upcoming National Day holiday, there is a specific emphasis on focusing on dividend-paying sectors as a defensive strategy [2][10][14]