Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the overseas market trends from September 8 to 12, 2025, including the performance of stocks, foreign exchange, bonds, and commodities. It also covers overseas central bank dynamics, Trump policy updates, and high - frequency tracking of the overseas economic fundamentals, and reminds of important events in the coming week. Factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and central bank policies have significant impacts on market trends [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equities**: Overseas equities generally rose this week. US stocks' three major indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising for 5 consecutive days. European and Asian major indices also increased due to factors like the increased probability of 3 interest rate cuts within the year. For example, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose 1.59%, 0.95%, and 2.03% respectively; the German DAX and London FTSE 100 rose 0.43% and 0.82%; the Nikkei 225 and South Korean Composite Index rose 4.07% and 5.94% [3][12]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar weakened this week. The dollar index fell 0.12%. The euro and yen against the dollar changed by +0.15% and - 0.17% respectively, and the RMB against the dollar rose slightly by 0.06% [12]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10Y US Treasury yield declined, while the short - end rose. The 2Y US Treasury rose 5bp, and the 10Y US Treasury fell 4bp. The decline was due to factors consolidating the interest rate cut expectation, and the rise was affected by the Middle - East situation and inflation expectations [13]. - **Commodities**: Gold, crude oil, and copper prices all rose. COMEX gold and silver rose 1.26% and 2.81%; WTI crude oil and copper rose 1.02% and 2.54% [13]. 2. Overseas Policy and Key News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The market's expectation of a 9 - month interest rate cut by the Fed reached 100%. The core CPI inflation in the US in August met expectations. The market's expectation of a 25bp cut in September was 93.4% (up from 89.0% a week ago), and the probability of a 50bp cut was 6.6% (down from 11.0% a week ago). The probability of a total of 75bp cuts throughout 2025 was 74% (up from 65% a week ago) [4][30][31]. - The Fed's FOMC meeting in September may see increased internal differences, and the new dot - plot may adjust the interest rate cut path significantly and become more decentralized [30]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Trade and Tariffs**: The Supreme Court will hold an oral debate on the legality of Trump's global tariff policy in the first week of November. China and the US will hold talks from September 14 - 17 in Spain, discussing issues like US unilateral tariffs and TikTok. China's Ministry of Commerce launched anti - dumping and anti - discrimination investigations on US - imported products. Trump proposed that the EU impose a 100% tariff on Russia's energy buyers (India and China) [33]. - **Fed - related**: Milan may participate in the September FOMC vote. There is a new candidate for the Fed chair, Rick Rieder. The case of Fed governor Cook may have a turn, with evidence to refute the mortgage fraud accusation [33][34]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Economic Outlook - The Polymarket website's bet on a US economic recession in 2025 was 11% (up from 9% a week ago). Bloomberg's consensus forecast for US economic growth in 2025 was revised up to 1.65%, and for the eurozone, it was 1.2% [6][40]. - The New York Fed's Nowcast model slightly lowered the Q3 US real GDP growth forecast to 2.08%, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model raised it to 3.09% [42]. 3.2 Employment - The number of unemployment benefit claimants exceeded expectations, mainly due to the impact in Texas. The initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, with Texas contributing 57%. The number of continuous unemployment benefit claimants remained at 1.939 million [47]. 3.3 Demand - US retail sales were stable, but airport security checks and railway transportation decreased significantly. The red - book retail sales growth rate was 6.6%. Airport security checks fell to 15.787 million, and railway transportation was 468,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 9.44%. The real - estate market activity picked up, with mortgage rates falling and application indices rising [55]. 3.4 Production - US crude steel production rebounded, and the refinery's capacity utilization rate was stable. The crude steel production in the week ending September 5 was 1.795 million short tons, and the refinery's capacity utilization rate was 94.9% [59]. 3.5 Shipping - International freight rates showed mixed trends. The Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) fell 2.9%, while the Baltic Dry Index, Capesize Freight Index, and Panamax Freight Index rose 7.4%, 11.3%, and 8.3% respectively. Chinese port export container prices generally fell, with some routes rising [61][63]. 3.6 Prices - US retail gasoline prices fell 0.69% this week. The 1 - year inflation swap rate was 3.335% (up 0.03 percentage points), and the 2 - year inflation swap rate was 2.906% (down 0.02 percentage points) [65]. 3.7 Financial Conditions - US financial pressure declined. The OFR US Financial Stress Index was - 1.136 (down 0.105 from the previous week), and the CCC high - yield bond credit spread was 8.00% (down from 8.06% a week ago) [67]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminder - Multiple overseas central banks, including the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada, will announce interest rate decisions. Attention should also be paid to US retail data and import price indices. Diplomatic events include China - US trade talks from September 14 - 17 and Trump's state visit to the UK from September 17 - 19 [72].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig sector, highlighting the expected decline in production capacity due to policy guidance amid strong supply and weak demand conditions [1][2][13] - The dairy and beef sectors are noted for potential recovery, with the beef super cycle possibly starting, and the report suggests focusing on companies with mother cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model [3][15] - The pet sector is experiencing rapid growth of domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports, indicating a robust pet economy [3][16] - The poultry sector is advised to focus on the white chicken breeding gap and the marginal improvement in demand for yellow chickens, with recommendations for specific companies [4][17][19] - The planting sector is encouraged to wait for a turnaround in conventional seed industries while emphasizing opportunities in biological breeding [5][21] - The feed sector highlights Hai Da Group as a key recommendation due to its market share increase and consistent performance [6][23] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - Current pig prices are under pressure, with an average price of 13.50 CNY/kg, down 2.67% from the previous week, and the industry is facing a narrowing profit margin [1][13] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong profitability, with specific recommendations for leading firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][14] Beef Sector - The report indicates that the dairy cow capacity reduction is nearing its end, with potential price recovery for raw milk and beef [3][15] - Recommended companies include Youran Dairy and China Shengmu Organic Milk [3][15] Pet Sector - The domestic pet economy is thriving, with significant growth in sales and exports of pet food [3][16] - Key recommendations include Guibao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [3][16] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the need to focus on the breeding gap for white chickens and the improving demand for yellow chickens [4][17][19] - Recommended companies include Shengnong Development and Lihua Stock [4][17][19] Planting Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of improving yield through advanced breeding techniques and the integration of agricultural practices [5][21] - Key recommendations include Longping High-tech and Dabeinong Technology Group [5][21][22] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with expectations of market recovery and increased market share [6][23]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The Trump administration is considering strict restrictions on medicines from China, which could significantly impact the American pharmaceutical industry and the availability of various treatments [10][11] - The proposed executive order draft includes mandatory reviews of acquisitions by U.S. pharmaceutical companies of experimental drugs from Chinese firms and stricter scrutiny of clinical trial data from China [15][10] - Major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer and AstraZeneca oppose these restrictions, as they benefit from cost-effective Chinese biotech assets [2][4] - The likelihood of the executive order being enacted is low due to its early discussion stage and the lack of positive feedback [3][5] - Even if the order is implemented, there are various countermeasures available, and the overall impact is expected to be manageable [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Proposed Restrictions - The draft executive order aims to impose strict controls on Chinese medicines, requiring mandatory reviews for acquisitions and higher scrutiny on clinical data from China [10][15] - The order is seen as a response to concerns about national security and the competitive threat posed by China's biotech sector [11][10] Section 2: Industry Reactions - Major pharmaceutical companies are lobbying against the proposed restrictions, emphasizing the benefits of collaboration with Chinese biotech firms [2][4] - The lobbying efforts highlight a divide between investors tied to the Trump administration and established pharmaceutical companies [10][11] Section 3: Feasibility and Impact - The report suggests that the executive order's implementation is unlikely due to political and practical challenges [3][5] - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to adapt to any potential restrictions, maintaining a focus on global collaboration and innovation [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 19.514 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.63%, primarily due to the impact of drug procurement policies. However, revenue from innovative drugs exceeded 4.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 14.26% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 1.702 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 38.96%, driven by the sale of remaining equity in Harmony Family and other non-core asset gains [1] - The company has completed two license-out transactions in 2025, indicating a faster-than-expected progress in its innovative drug internationalization efforts [2] - A long-term incentive mechanism has been established, with targets set for net profit and innovative drug revenue, aiming for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% from 2025 to 2027 [3] - The subsidiary, Fuhong Hanlin, is making significant progress in clinical trials, which is expected to further enhance the company's performance [4] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 41.274 billion yuan, 42.496 billion yuan, and 47.572 billion yuan, respectively, while the net profit forecasts have been raised to 3.399 billion yuan, 3.995 billion yuan, and 4.770 billion yuan [5] - The company aims for net profit targets of 3.32 billion yuan, 3.96 billion yuan, and 4.77 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with innovative drug revenue targets of 9.36 billion yuan, 11.23 billion yuan, and 13.48 billion yuan for the same period [3][5]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The focus on "anti-involution" has increased, highlighting investment opportunities in the construction sector. The report suggests four angles to capture these opportunities: 1) "Price elasticity" focusing on benefiting upstream commodities, emphasizing "construction + minerals" and "construction + chemicals" [13][14] 2) Improvement in downstream profitability and capital expenditure, with significant growth in new domestic orders for steel and engineering sectors [14][18] 3) Improvement in financial statements and "transformation and upgrading," with tech-driven construction companies expected to benefit from high demand for tech-based infrastructure [14][15] 4) Related sectors in new energy materials and engineering, particularly in photovoltaic fields [14][15] Summary by Sections Section 1: Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of the "anti-involution" theme, with a focus on construction companies that can leverage price elasticity and resource development [13][14] - Specific recommendations include companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Railway, and Shanghai Construction for their resource development capabilities [14][15] Section 2: Market Performance - The construction index rose by 2.16% during the week of September 8-12, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.01 percentage points [26] - Notable stock performances included Dongzhu Ecology and Tianyu Ecology, both increasing by 33.05% [26] Section 3: Company-Specific Insights - Sichuan Road and Bridge announced plans to optimize its shareholding structure by introducing strategic investors, aiming to improve its fundamentals [18][19] - The company secured 218 new projects worth approximately 72.2 billion, marking a 22.20% year-on-year increase, with infrastructure orders growing by 25.88% [18][19] Section 4: Construction Material Indicators - The report highlights a significant recovery in the operating rates of petroleum asphalt and cement, indicating a positive trend in physical workload conversion for construction projects [19][24]

Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios that have growth potential, and selling them once their growth is realized and PE increases, achieving a multiplier effect on returns [6][9] - The strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, exceeding the benchmark by 21.08% [8] - Year-to-date, the strategy has a cumulative absolute return of 48.70%, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 24.84% [9] Group 2: Net Profit Gap Strategy - The Net Profit Gap strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises and "gap" indicates a significant upward price jump on the first trading day after earnings announcements [10] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.43%, with an annualized excess return of 26.44% [12] - Year-to-date, the strategy has a cumulative absolute return of 53.50%, outperforming the benchmark index by 28.67% [12] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP, growth, and value investing styles, utilizing PBROE and PEG factors to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and growth potential [13] - The portfolio has shown stable excess returns historically, with a year-to-date excess return of 16.31% relative to the CSI 300 index [15] - The strategy's performance this week yielded an excess return of 0.88% [15]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current WIND All A index is in an upward trend, with the trend line positioned around 6106 points and a positive earning effect of approximately 1.9% [2][10] - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation in response to increased market volatility, especially as the market enters a significant event window [2][10] - The report highlights that the market's short-term moving average (20-day) is above the long-term moving average (120-day), with the distance between them increasing from 12.15% to 13.19%, indicating a continued upward trend [2][9] Group 2 - The industry allocation model recommends focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from policy-driven growth, such as chemicals and innovative new energy, while also continuing to support the Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical sector [2][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of the market's earning effect in sustaining mid-term incremental capital inflows, as long as the earning effect remains positive [2][10] - The report identifies technology sectors, particularly those related to computing power and batteries, as areas of interest based on the TWO BETA model [2][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [8][19]. Core Views - The company's performance in the ready-to-drink segment is expected to drive core earnings, with overall performance anticipated to remain stable throughout the year [2][5]. - The ready-to-drink business has shown a year-on-year growth, while the brewed segment has faced slight pressure [3][5]. - The company is actively seeking transformation, focusing on non-distributor channels, which have shown strong performance [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenues of 4.55 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.18%, but a significant increase in losses for net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items [2][5]. - The revenue breakdown for H1 2025 shows the brewed segment at 4.23 billion (down 31.0% YoY) and the ready-to-drink segment at 5.91 billion (up 8.0% YoY), with the ready-to-drink segment accounting for 58.27% of total revenue [3][5]. - The company's gross margin for Q2 2025 was 27.02%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points YoY, while the net margin was -17.32%, a decrease of 5.23 percentage points YoY [5][12]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects to achieve net profits of 2.6 billion, 2.8 billion, and 3.0 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a slight downward adjustment from previous estimates [5][12]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 3.26 billion, with a growth rate of -0.96% [7][12]. Market Position and Valuation - The company has a total market capitalization of 5.59 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.50 for 2025 [9][12]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.63 for 2025, with a steady increase expected in subsequent years [7][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [9][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a historical high in performance, turning losses into profits with a revenue of 304 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 25.19 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 171.65% [1][5]. - The product matrix is rapidly improving, transitioning from a single product company to a platform-based MEMS manufacturer, with significant growth potential and industry influence expected as the full range of physical sensors is completed [2][3]. Financial Performance - The pressure sensor segment generated sales revenue of 133.25 million yuan, up 67.05% year-on-year, becoming the core revenue source [2]. - The inertial sensor segment saw sales revenue of 19.76 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.82%, laying the foundation for a complete inertial product matrix [2]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of the year was 31.64%, an increase of 10.21 percentage points year-on-year, with the second quarter gross margin reaching 36.16%, up 15.21 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Product Development - The MEMS product matrix has achieved a leap from point to surface, with three major product lines driving growth: acoustic sensors, pressure sensors, and inertial sensors [3]. - The company is expanding its product applications from smartwatches to smartphones in the pressure sensor area, enhancing gross margins through product upgrades [3][4]. - The company is focusing on high signal-to-noise ratio, low-power digital microphones for AI voice interaction, and is making advancements in next-generation products such as bone conduction acoustic sensors and six-dimensional force sensors [4]. Research and Development - R&D expenses reached 38.63 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with R&D personnel accounting for 33.52% of the workforce, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [4]. - The company has accumulated nearly 500 authorized patents and has over 700 patents pending, enhancing its capability for product iteration and new product development [4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 653 million yuan, 818 million yuan, and 1.03 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 46.44 million yuan, 84.16 million yuan, and 133.43 million yuan [5][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price maintained [6][17]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a release of pressure due to a slowdown, with a continued logic for net profit margin improvement [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the Anhui liquor market, with a solid domestic foundation, and is preparing for a strong performance in the upcoming peak season [4]. Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 4.734 billion, 1.332 billion, and 1.315 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 14.23%, 11.63%, and 11.81% [1]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q2 2025 were 80.24% and 29.33%, reflecting a decrease of 0.26 and an increase of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the revenue from year-on-year raw liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, and Huanghelou was 10.959 billion, 1.184 billion, and 1.497 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +1.59%, -4.39%, and +6.68% [2]. - The average price per ton for year-on-year raw liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, and Huanghelou was 235,200, 60,300, and 98,400 yuan/ton, showing year-on-year declines of 8.31%, 12.49%, and 4.84% [2]. Market and Channel Insights - In H1 2025, the revenue from North China, Central China, and South China was 8.09 billion, 12.297 billion, and 7.68 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -27.04%, +3.60%, and -5.84% respectively, indicating a solid performance in Central China [3]. - The number of distributors in North China, Central China, and South China increased by 90, 161, and 25 to 1,378, 3,009, and 655 respectively, with average distributor scale changes of -31.80%, -1.94%, and -9.43% [3]. Cost and Cash Flow Analysis - The sales expense ratio decreased year-on-year by 1.86 percentage points to 22.78%, attributed to improved cost efficiency due to scale effects [4]. - The operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was 2.309 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.45% [4]. Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits attributable to the parent to be 5.620 billion, 6.002 billion, and 6.810 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 6.299 billion, 7.207 billion, and 8.104 billion yuan [4].