固定收益 | 固定收益专题 基金转债持仓分析 证券研究报告 25Q2，类底仓转债方向分化 2025Q2 公募基金转债持仓概览 2025Q2，权益市场延续旺势，债市震荡，股票及混合型基金业绩整体亮 眼，纯债型基金业绩偏弱；权益指数类基金份额微增，纯债型及被动指数 型债基份额明显上升。公募基金"落袋为安"情绪浓厚，持有股债主流资 产市值占比下降，持债市值环比上涨 7.69%至 21.21 万亿元，债券仓位占 比 57.79%，环比下降 0.40pct。 伴随转债赎回潮，2025Q2 公募基金持有转债市值环比继续微降，但转债 参与度继续上升。全市场持有转债的公募基金数量在 25Q2 末降至 2229 只，与 23Q3 持平；持有转债市值占存续转债余额衡量的比例环比提升 0.81pct 至 41.65%，由转债价格上涨和转债市场缩量共同驱动。 2025Q2，二级债基继续减仓转债，一级债基持有转债市值创历史新高。 2025Q2 持有转债市值环比下降 8.66%至 858.67 亿元，为 2021Q4 以 来最低水平；一级债基持有转债市值环比大幅增长 9.26%至 726.56 亿 元，创历史新高；转债基金持有转债市值环 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The global autoimmune disease treatment market is projected to exceed $100 billion, with an estimated market size of approximately $107.9 billion in 2024, expected to grow to $137.59 billion by 2033. The prevalence of autoimmune diseases is estimated to affect about 7.6% to 9.4% of the global population, leading to a long-term medication requirement for patients [3] - The leading drug in the autoimmune market for 2024 is Dupilumab, with sales of $14.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23%. The highest clinical demand is noted for atopic dermatitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, systemic lupus erythematosus, and inflammatory bowel disease, which have high prevalence rates and complex disease courses [3] - Significant growth in overseas licensing for China's autoimmune sector is observed, with a total transaction amount of $9.132 billion from 2017 to 2024, where 2024 alone accounts for $3.108 billion, representing about one-third of the total, showing a notable increase compared to previous years [4] - Major business development transactions include Roche's acquisition of Telavant for $7.1 billion, Pfizer's acquisition of Arena for approximately $6.7 billion, and Takeda's acquisition of Nimbus for $4 billion, highlighting the substantial deal sizes in the autoimmune sector [4] Recommendations - Companies to watch include Yifang Bio, TianKang, CloudTop, Kexing Pharmaceutical, Zai Lab, Hengrui Medicine, Kangzhe Pharmaceutical, Sanofi, Innovent Biologics, Xiansheng Pharmaceutical, Lizhu Group, Zhixiang Jintai, China Antibody, and Chuanxin Biotech [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7][18]. Core Views - The company experienced a temporary decline in mid-year performance but is expected to release significant potential due to a strong order backlog [1][2]. - The company has secured two large orders this year, totaling approximately 47.45 billion, indicating a positive outlook for the Singapore market and continued order fulfillment [2]. - The gross margin has improved significantly, and cash flow remains at a healthy level, with a net cash inflow of 877 million in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 213 million for the first half of 2025, maintaining a strong commitment to shareholder returns [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.683 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 41%, and a net profit of 161 million, down 32% [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 16.9%, an increase of 5.89 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 9.63%, up 1.34 percentage points [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 877 million, a decrease of 282 million year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 145% [3]. Order Backlog and Market Outlook - As of mid-2025, the company has an uncompleted contract amount of 6.1 billion, indicating a robust order backlog [2]. - The company is optimistic about the semiconductor industry in Southeast Asia, driven by increased demand from AI applications [4]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 528 million, 797 million, and 844 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 10, and 9.6 [4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow significantly in 2024, with a projected increase of 68.09% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - policy tone is expected to continue the characteristics of expansionary neutrality. The demands for stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and stabilizing expectations remain. The meeting may emphasize policy continuity, and the necessity of strong stimulus may decline. It will also use the current window period to accelerate structural adjustment and industrial reform [1][15]. - Different policy areas may have various focuses, including "anti - involution" policies, fiscal policies, monetary policies, real estate policies, and consumption policies [16]. - After the July Politburo meeting, the bond market interest rates often show a trend of first falling and then rising, but the specific trend depends on the macro - economic situation and policy paradigm evolution [26]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. 7 - month Politburo Meeting Preview - **Economic Situation**: In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year - on - year, showing resilience. However, there are still economic pressures such as insufficient effective demand, a weak real estate market, low - level prices, and external uncertainties [14]. - **Policy Focuses** - **"Anti - involution" Policy**: Due to over - expansion of production capacity in some industries and price wars, the PPI has been negative for 33 consecutive months. The July Politburo meeting may focus on this policy to promote domestic structural adjustment, optimize supply, and prevent risks [16]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Considering the easing of Sino - US tariff games and the 5.3% GDP growth in the first half, it is expected to continue the tone of the April meeting, emphasizing the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. Attention should be paid to new policy - based financial instruments [18]. - **Monetary Policy**: It is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" tone, providing sufficient liquidity and coordinating with fiscal policies. The probability of an interest - rate cut in the short term may be low, and attention should be paid to the expansion of structural monetary policy tools [20]. - **Real Estate Policy**: In the first half of the year, real estate sales and investment were weak. In the second half, loose policies may be expected, focusing on releasing demand (such as lowering provident fund loan interest rates and relaxing purchase restrictions in core cities) and optimizing supply (such as improving the acquisition policy of existing commercial housing and financing mechanisms) [21][22]. - **Consumption Policy**: The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth has been increasing. The July Politburo meeting may continue to emphasize the importance of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption. In the second half, consumption policies may continue to exert force, such as implementing "two new" policies, developing service consumption, and increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups [23]. - **Bond Market Performance**: After the July Politburo meeting, bond market interest rates often show a trend of first falling and then rising. From 2013 - 2024, on T + 5 days, the average 1 - year treasury bond interest rate decreased by 4BP, and the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate decreased by 1BP; on T + 30 days, the average 1 - year treasury bond interest rate increased by 4BP, and the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate increased by 1BP [26]. 2. 2024: Policy Tone Continues Positive Orientation, Bond Market Maintains Volatility - **Policy**: The meeting proposed that macro - policies should "continue to exert force and be more effective", emphasizing policy continuity. Fiscal policies focused on accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds and using ultra - long - term special treasury bonds; monetary policies aimed to increase support for the real economy [28][30]. - **Bond Market**: After the meeting, on T + 30 days, the 1Y and 10Y treasury bond yields increased by 6BP and 2BP respectively [28]. 3. 2022: Policy Intensity Slows Down, Economic Targets are Weakened, Interest Rates Decline - **Policy**: Compared with the April meeting, the judgment of economic downward pressure was alleviated. The meeting no longer emphasized achieving the annual economic growth target. Fiscal policies focused on using local government special bond funds, and monetary policies focused on implementing existing policies [35][37]. - **Bond Market**: After the meeting, on T + 30 days, bond market interest rates were in a downward trend, especially after the central bank unexpectedly cut OMO and MLF interest rates by 10BP in August [35]. 4. 2021: Policy Shifts from Structural Adjustment to Growth Stabilization, Bond Market Consolidates in a Range - **Policy**: The economic situation judgment changed, and the task of "stabilizing growth" took precedence over "structural adjustment". Fiscal policies were more proactive, accelerating local government bond issuance. Monetary policies focused on supporting small and medium - sized enterprises and difficult industries [42][49]. - **Bond Market**: After the meeting, the 10 - year treasury bond yield showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and the short - end yield had a larger callback amplitude in the third quarter [52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 9.00 CNY, indicating an expected upside of 22% from the current price of 7.37 CNY [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of approximately 6.062 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.10%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.969 billion CNY, up 13.55% year-on-year [2]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 490% as of June 2025, indicating a strong buffer against potential credit losses [4]. - The bank's total assets reached approximately 401.3 billion CNY by the end of June 2025, reflecting a growth of 9.46% since the beginning of the year, while total liabilities increased by 9.93% to approximately 369.3 billion CNY [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company demonstrated stable revenue growth, with a weighted average return on equity of 13.33% and a return on total assets of 1.10% for the first half of 2025, both showing slight improvements year-on-year [2]. - The forecast for net profit growth is projected at 12.67%, 12.60%, and 12.17% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating sustained profitability [5]. Asset and Liability Management - As of June 2025, the loan balance was approximately 251.5 billion CNY, accounting for 62.67% of total assets, with a year-to-date growth of 4.40% [3]. - Customer deposits reached approximately 310.8 billion CNY, representing an 8.46% increase since the beginning of the year, which constitutes 84.16% of total liabilities [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a robust performance in terms of revenue and profit, with projected revenues of 11.7 billion CNY for 2025, growing at a rate of 7.21% [6]. - The earnings per share are forecasted to be 1.43 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.19, indicating a favorable valuation [6].

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes Toyota's high-end transformation and draws parallels to BYD's potential strategies for success in the high-end market [2][3][4] Summary by Sections Toyota's High-End Transformation - Toyota successfully established the Lexus brand in North America by leveraging low trade barriers and addressing the demand for economical luxury cars during the oil crisis [2] - The company invested $1 billion in R&D for the LS 400, producing 450 prototypes and conducting extensive testing to ensure performance and reliability [2][5] - Marketing strategies included the iconic "highball glass" advertisement, which effectively positioned Lexus as a high-quality luxury brand [2][21] - Lexus quickly became the best-selling imported luxury car in North America, surpassing competitors like BMW and Mercedes-Benz within two years of launch [2][24] BYD's High-End Strategy - BYD aims to replicate Toyota's successful high-end strategy by launching the Tengshi Z9 GT in Western Europe, avoiding saturated SUV markets [3][4] - The company plans to establish over 1,000 service outlets across multiple countries within two years, focusing on smart driving features to address local consumer needs [3] - In the domestic market, BYD is introducing models like the Fangchengbao Titanium 7 and Yangwang U8L, which align with consumer preferences for aesthetics and space [3][55] Market Performance Expectations - If BYD can successfully implement a strategy similar to Toyota's, it could capture a significant share of the European luxury market and improve its domestic market position against established brands [4] - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation and differentiated marketing in achieving high-end brand recognition [4][34]

Group 1: Key Insights from the Report - The report highlights the "fuzzy premium" associated with wide performance guidance ranges, indicating that stocks with broader performance forecasts tend to have higher trading value compared to those with narrow ranges [3][25][26] - Data analysis shows that sectors with wider performance guidance during the July-August earnings window tend to outperform, particularly for leading stocks within those sectors [3][25][26] - The report suggests that while the market has largely priced in the "fuzzy premium" for leading stocks, there remains potential for further pricing in for entire sectors with wide performance guidance [3][25] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The semiconductor sector is expected to maintain an optimistic growth trajectory into 2025, driven by AI and increasing demand for storage solutions [4][30] - Significant price increases for storage products are anticipated in Q3 and Q4, with a focus on design segments such as SoC, ASIC, and CIS [4][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution in the semiconductor supply chain, as well as the expected performance of leading wafer foundries [4][30] Group 3: Consumer Electronics and AI - The consumer electronics market is projected to recover moderately, with specific trends in AI, foldable devices, and high-end imaging driving growth [4][31] - The report notes that the global investment in computing power remains high, with companies in the AI supply chain continuing to deliver strong performance [4][31] - The demand for ASICs is expected to rise due to increased needs in inference applications, with significant market growth projected for custom ASIC and related markets by 2028 [4][31] Group 4: Chemical Industry Developments - The report discusses the opening of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, which is expected to significantly boost demand for civil explosives in the Tibet region [14][18] - It highlights the potential for chemical companies involved in civil explosive production to benefit from this increased demand, with several listed companies already positioned in the region [14][18] Group 5: Market Performance Data - The report provides recent market performance data, indicating positive movements in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which closed at 3605.73 with a 0.65% increase [8] - The report also includes performance data for various sectors, showing significant movements in indices like the ChiNext Index, which rose by 1.5% [8] Group 6: Company-Specific Insights - The report covers specific companies such as Hong Kong-based companies and their strategic positioning in the market, including their expected earnings growth and market strategies [13][24] - It mentions the anticipated financial performance of companies like Macro Technology, projecting a recovery in revenue and profitability over the next few years [13][24]

Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is expected to see a strong recovery, with global sales projected to reach a new high of $687.38 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [6][9] - The memory segment is anticipated to experience significant growth, with a forecasted increase of 76.8% in 2024, while logic chips are expected to grow by 10.7% [9] - The domestic semiconductor market in China is also recovering, with sales reaching $162 billion in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [9] Consumer Electronics - The smartphone and PC markets are showing signs of moderate recovery, with Apple expected to see a 10.5% increase in iPhone sales in 2025 [2] - The 3D printing industry is moving towards mass production, with significant potential for growth in various application areas [2] AI and Computing - The global investment in computing power remains high, driven by the demand for AI infrastructure, with ASIC demand expected to rise significantly [2][23] - Marvell predicts that the market for customized ASICs will grow at a CAGR of 45% from 2023 to 2028, with the total addressable market reaching $750 billion by 2028 [23] Capacitor and Display Technologies - The MLCC market is projected to see double-digit growth from 2024 to 2027, driven by the demand from AI servers and laptops [2] - The LCD TV panel market is stabilizing, with a recovery in demand expected to support price increases [2] CIS Market - The demand for CMOS image sensors (CIS) is expected to rise, particularly in the automotive sector, with a projected increase in global automotive CIS shipments from 354 million units in 2023 to 755 million units by 2029 [34] - The smartphone market remains the largest application area for CIS, accounting for 71.4% of the total market [33]

Group 1 - The report highlights the performance of 1574 companies in the A-share market, with a disclosure rate of approximately 29% for Q2 2025 earnings forecasts, and a positive earnings forecast rate of about 43.7% [3] - It suggests focusing on cyclical and resource sectors for excess returns between the earnings forecast date and the official earnings report date, particularly in the basic chemical sector [3] - The report identifies 10 companies that have shown "earnings surprise" signals, with over 5 companies in the pharmaceutical and biological sector having a probability of earnings surprise of no less than 2% [3] Group 2 - The report discusses the introduction of government bond trading as a monetary policy tool, which was launched in August 2024 but was suspended in January 2025 [4] - It emphasizes that the bond trading aims to diversify monetary policy tools and alleviate liquidity pressure while stabilizing issuance costs [4][30] - The report notes that the probability of resuming bond trading in the short term is low due to high interest rate risks faced by rural commercial banks [4] Group 3 - The report covers the performance of Hong Kong-listed companies in the explosive materials sector, particularly in relation to the recently commenced Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, which is expected to significantly boost local demand for explosives [10][34] - It estimates that the hydropower project could lead to a demand for tens of thousands of tons of explosives, with several listed companies already positioned in the region [10][34] - The report provides data on the production and sales of industrial explosives in Tibet, indicating a 10% year-on-year increase in production from January to May 2025 [10] Group 4 - The report discusses the ongoing supply-side reforms in the chemical industry, focusing on the re-pricing of "cost factors" to combat "involution" in competition [12][32] - It highlights the importance of standardizing land, energy efficiency, safety, and environmental factors as part of the supply-side reform strategy [12][32] - The report suggests that the chemical sector could see a structural improvement due to enhanced supply constraints and demand support [12][32] Group 5 - The report on Hong Kong-listed company Macro Technology (301662) indicates a projected revenue decline of 34.64% in 2024, with further declines expected in Q1 2025 [6][26] - It emphasizes the company's leadership in material handling and its focus on expanding into the lithium battery sector, with significant orders from major clients [6][26] - The report forecasts a recovery in orders starting in 2025, with a total order backlog of 9.18 billion yuan as of Q1 2025 [6][26]

Group 1 - The report highlights a focus on cyclical and resource sectors for excess returns from the earnings forecast date to the official financial report date, particularly in the basic chemical sector due to favorable economic conditions [1][2] - Companies with significant earnings surprises and upward revisions in analyst earnings forecasts include those in the pharmaceutical and biological sectors, as well as steel, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and communication industries [1][2][3] - Over 45 companies are expected to report a profit growth rate exceeding 30% year-on-year in the mid-year reports, indicating a strong performance across most industries [3][26] Group 2 - The report indicates that as of July 20, 2025, 1,574 companies in the A-share market disclosed their Q2 earnings forecasts or reports, with a disclosure rate of approximately 29% and a positive earnings forecast rate of about 43.7% [2][8] - The electronic industry is driven by a dual engine of AI-driven hardware upgrades and policy-driven consumption recovery, leading to high growth rates [29][30] - The basic chemical sector is experiencing structural improvements due to supply constraints and demand support, with some products seeing significant price increases [39][44] - The mechanical equipment sector is supported by domestic demand recovery and accelerated overseas expansion, with notable profit growth in general and specialized equipment manufacturing [47][48] Group 3 - The report identifies high-performing sectors, including electronics, basic chemicals, and mechanical equipment, with many companies expected to report strong earnings growth [26][29] - The electronic sector's growth is bolstered by the expansion of AI computing power and favorable consumer policies, leading to a projected annual growth rate exceeding 40% in the AI computing market from 2023 to 2028 [30][31] - In the basic chemical sector, the price of certain products, such as the herbicide acetamiprid, has surged over 81% due to supply constraints, significantly boosting related companies' earnings [39][44]