Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - Nvidia is set to unveil its new "brain" for robotics on August 25, which is expected to enhance humanoid robot technology and lead to a surge in domestic robot industry orders [1] - The global humanoid robot industry is anticipated to expand significantly, driven by advancements in physical AI, with Nvidia's developments potentially unlocking a trillion-dollar market [1] - The Shanghai government has released an implementation plan to accelerate the practical deployment of humanoid robots in manufacturing, aiming for 3,000 companies to adopt intelligent applications within three years [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The humanoid robot sector has seen a notable increase in demand, with over 83 publicly disclosed projects in the first half of 2025, totaling nearly 330 million yuan in contracts, a significant rise from the previous year [1] - Major companies like Ubtech, Yushun Technology, and Zhiyuan Robotics dominate the market, collectively accounting for over 60% of the total contract value [1] Key Companies to Watch - **Aobi Zhongguang**: A leading company in 3D visual perception with over 70% market share in domestic service robot visual sensors, closely partnered with Microsoft and Nvidia [3] - **Keli Sensor**: A top domestic strain sensor manufacturer, specializing in the development of sensors for humanoid robots, having completed product series for various robotic applications [3]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 降息预期"先抑后扬" 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20250824 海外市场复盘（8.18-8.22） 海外权益，本周先抑后扬。本周前四天标普 500 连跌四天，周五大幅反弹。 前四天下跌的原因，一是投资者对周五的鲍威尔演讲保持谨慎观望态度， 二是大型零售商的财报不佳，包括塔吉特、沃尔玛等，导致股价大跌。但 周五鲍威尔演讲"放鸽"暗示重启降息，美股三大股指强劲反弹。 本周美元先涨后跌，小幅收跌。周一至周四美元累涨 0.8%，周五美元大跌 0.9%。周三公布 7 月美联储议息会议纪要偏鹰派，周四公布美国 8 月标普 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值 53.3，意外创三年多新高。并且周中多位美联储官 员表态偏鹰，因此前四天美元偏向上行；但周五鲍威尔演讲令美元回落。 2Y 和 10Y 美债收益率均大幅下行。本周美债收益率下行，主因周五杰克逊 霍尔会议上鲍威尔态度转鸽。其次，首次申请失业救济人数意外高于预期， 显示劳动力市场降温，续请失业金人数也升至四年高位。第三，特朗普呼 吁美联储理事库克辞职，被视为施压联储降息的信号。 黄金、原油上涨。本周美债收益率大幅下行，推动黄金和白银价格上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is likely to continue its range - bound fluctuations. The adjustment range of the bond market will be protected by the buying power of allocation investors and the central bank's liquidity injection, which will suppress the upward space of interest rates. Meanwhile, the relative "absence" of allocation power since this year will also restrict the downward space of interest rates [39]. - It is expected that 1.80% may become the temporary top of the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate, and currently, it is in the process of reaching the top [22]. - In the volatile market, attention can be paid to Guokai bonds of the 10 - year maturity, but the further manifestation of their value needs the stabilization of bond market sentiment and liquidity [40]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Review 1.1 Bond Market Fluctuated with the Stock Market, and the Long - end Was Significantly Weak - The bond market followed the stock market and failed to have an independent trend. The stock - bond "seesaw" effect was obvious, and the bond market was "desensitized" to the fundamentals. There was a concentrated redemption of bond funds, and the interest rate center shifted upward with increased daily fluctuations. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond broke through the 1.75% key point on 8/18 and then moved in the range of 1.75% - 1.79%. The overall yield curve shifted upward, with the medium - short end being significantly weak [6][7]. 1.2 Tax Payment Period Led to an Unexpected Convergence of Funds - The funding situation unexpectedly tightened and then eased marginally, with increased fluctuations in funding rates. The reasons included the resonance impact of the traditional tax period and the non - traditional stock - bond market linkage changing the flow of funds. The central bank increased the liquidity injection in advance to stabilize expectations and block the spread of redemption pressure [14]. 2. This Week's Focus 2.1 Has the Interest Rate Reached the Top? - In the past week, the central bank's support was effective, allocation investors continued to buy, and trading investors changed from selling to slightly net buying, which may gradually restrict the upward space of interest rates. It is expected that 1.80% may become the temporary top of the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate [22]. - The central bank's timely support protected the bond market adjustment. When the bond market interest rate rose to a temporary high or the selling power of trading investors such as funds increased, the central bank would increase its open - market investment within 1 - 4 days [23]. - The buying power of allocation investors formed support at the 1.8% level of the 10 - year Treasury bond, suppressing the further upward space. However, the allocation power has been relatively "absent" this year, weakening the internal repair momentum of the bond market [26][27]. - Trading investors changed from selling to slightly net buying. Funds gradually increased their purchases of Treasury bonds and short - term financing bills in the second half of the week. Meanwhile, wealth management products slightly net - bought medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and Tier 2 capital bonds, and the current redemption pressure was generally controllable [28][31]. 2.2 How Many Basis Points Has the Market Priced for the Newly Issued Tax - Inclusive Treasury Bonds? - The 30 - year Treasury bond basically fully priced the 6% VAT on the basis of the fair active bond price. The new 10 - year Treasury bond priced about 3% of the VAT, indicating that the current bond market allocation power may be relatively weak, and the digestion of the 6% VAT for ultra - long - term varieties is limited [3][38]. 3. The Bond Market May Continue Range - Bound Fluctuations - The bond market is likely to continue range - bound fluctuations. The buying power of allocation investors and the central bank's liquidity injection will suppress the upward space of interest rates, while the relative "absence" of allocation power will restrict the downward space [39]. - In the volatile market, Guokai bonds of the 10 - year maturity can be considered. After the adjustment since late July, the allocation cost - effectiveness of 10 - year Guokai bonds is prominent, and the VAT policy adjustment may further promote the narrowing of the spread between Guokai and Treasury bonds [40].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Insights - The pet industry is experiencing significant growth, with the Asia Pet Expo showcasing over 2,600 exhibitors and 20,000 brands, indicating a thriving market driven by globalization and innovation [2][13] - China's pet food exports have shown continuous growth, with 201,000 tons exported from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.64% [14] - The pig farming sector is facing challenges, with the average pig price at 13.82 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.63% from the previous week, and the average weight of pigs reaching a historical high [15][16] - The dairy sector is poised for a recovery, with the original milk price expected to rebound as production capacity decreases after a prolonged period of losses [17][18] - The poultry sector is focusing on breeding gaps, with a significant decline in the import of breeding chickens due to avian influenza concerns, which may impact future supply [19][20] - The planting sector emphasizes food security and the importance of biotechnology, with a focus on high-yield and resilient crop varieties [25] - The feed sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from market recovery and increased market share [26] Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The Asia Pet Expo has reached a record scale of 310,000 square meters, highlighting the industry's vitality and innovation potential [2][13] - Pet food exports from China have increased, with a total of 201,000 tons exported in the first seven months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.64% [14] - Recommended companies include pet food brands like Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [14] Pig Sector - The average pig price is currently at 13.82 yuan/kg, with a year-to-date low in profitability for pig farming [15][16] - The average weight of pigs is at a historical high, indicating supply pressures [15] - Recommended companies include leading pig farming firms such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods [16] Dairy Sector - Yuran Dairy reported stable performance with a revenue of 10.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [17] - The dairy industry is expected to see a recovery as production capacity decreases [18] - Recommended companies include Yuran Dairy and China Shengmu Organic Milk [18] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding imports, particularly for white chickens, due to avian influenza [19][20] - Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [20] Planting Sector - The focus is on food security and biotechnology, with an emphasis on high-yield and resilient crop varieties [25] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong Technology Group [25] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its increasing market share and performance [26] - The animal health sector is also recommended, particularly companies like Kexin Biological [27]

Group 1: Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively supporting the issuance of REITs for eligible private investment projects, particularly in infrastructure sectors such as railways, nuclear power, and public services [1][7]. - The report emphasizes the need for a long-term mechanism to enhance private enterprises' participation in major national projects and to promote investment in emerging and future industries [1][7]. Group 2: Market Performance - During the week of August 18-22, 2025, the CSI REITs total return index fell by 1.74%, with the total REITs index down by 1.77% [2][16]. - The total REITs index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.95 percentage points and the CSI All Bond index by 1.34 percentage points [2][16]. - The top-performing REITs included Zhongjin Chongqing Liangjiang REIT (+2.33%) and Gongyinhe North Expressway REIT (+2.18%), while the worst performers were Zhongjin Xiamen Anju REIT (-6.28%) and Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT (-6.18%) [2][16]. Group 3: Liquidity - The total trading volume of REITs increased, with a weekly average trading volume (MA5) of 727 million yuan, up 11.2% from the previous week [3][36]. - The trading volumes for property and operating rights REITs were 493 million yuan and 233 million yuan, reflecting increases of 15.7% and 2.8%, respectively [3][36]. - The largest category by trading volume was park infrastructure REITs, accounting for 21.4% of the total [3][36]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - As of August 22, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 190.9 billion yuan, with 73 REITs issued [8][10]. - The report indicates a trend towards the normalization of REIT issuance, with significant expansions in the underlying asset categories over the past years [15][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" with a target price of 36.07 CNY per share, reflecting an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Insights - The company reported record high revenues and profits in the second quarter, achieving an operating income of 1.47 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 655.9 million CNY, up 33.9% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for the second quarter reached 76.7%, the highest since 2021, indicating strong profitability alongside revenue growth [2]. - The company is making significant advancements in material production, with several new materials expected to drive future growth, including Red Host and Green Prime materials, which are in various stages of mass production [3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.92 billion CNY, representing an 18.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.26 billion CNY, up 36.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company forecasts continued growth, with projected net profits of 3.17 billion CNY, 4.48 billion CNY, and 6.06 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 420.58 million CNY, with a significant growth rate of 89.47% compared to 2024 [5]. Research and Development - The company has filed 64 new invention patent applications and received 24 patent grants in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong commitment to R&D [4]. - Ongoing projects include advancements in blue phosphorescent materials and collaboration with academic institutions to enhance material properties and production processes [4]. Market Position and Client Expansion - The company maintains stable partnerships with leading OLED panel manufacturers and is actively expanding into emerging markets such as silicon-based OLED materials [3]. - Successful testing of multiple materials by clients such as Guozhao Optoelectronics and Guanyu is expected to open new revenue streams for the company [3].

Group 1: Market Insights - The report analyzes the current valuation distribution of the A-share market compared to previous bull markets, indicating that during bull markets, the market acts as a "voting machine" while in bear markets, it functions as a "weighing machine" [1][11][12] - The valuation dispersion coefficient for the entire A-share market is currently at 0.805, which is above the historical median of 0.794, suggesting a general upward trend in the market [12][14] - The report identifies a continuous decline in the proportion of undervalued stocks since September 2024, with the P/B distribution curve shifting downwards over time [33][34] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In July, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase, with tax revenue rising by 5%, marking a new high for the year, while non-tax revenue continued to decline [43][44] - The report notes a slight cooling in land transactions, with government land use rights revenue dropping to 7.16% year-on-year in July [50][51] - Industrial production indices have shown signs of recovery, particularly in sectors like soda ash and polyester filament, indicating a rebound in industrial activity [57][58] Group 3: International Economic Context - The report highlights that market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, with a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut by September 2025 [4][61] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, are monitored as they may impact market conditions [4][61][62] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: breakthroughs in AI technology, recovery in consumer stock valuations, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks [5][37] - It emphasizes the importance of the AI industry’s progress, which is crucial for the performance of undervalued dividend stocks [5][37]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a bullish market sentiment, suggesting that investors should continue to accumulate positions during dips as long as the market maintains a positive profit effect [1][2][3] - The current profit effect value is reported at 5.22%, indicating a strong market environment, and the recommendation is to hold high positions until the profit effect turns negative [2][10] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including innovative pharmaceuticals and securities insurance, which are expected to benefit from ongoing upward trends [2][10] Market Overview - The Wind All A index is currently in an upward trend, with the short-term moving average (20-day) at 5752 points and the long-term moving average (120-day) at 5271 points, resulting in a distance of 9.12% between the two [2][10] - The overall market saw significant gains, with the Wind All A index rising by 3.87% last week, and small-cap stocks (CSI 2000) increasing by 3.23% [1][9] - The report highlights strong performance in the telecommunications and electronics sectors, with telecommunications stocks rising by 10.47% [1][9] Investment Strategy - The report recommends maintaining an 80% position in absolute return products based on the Wind All A index, as the current PE ratio is at the 85th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level [3][10] - The focus for mid-term investments should be on sectors that are expected to experience a turnaround, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals and securities insurance, alongside policy-driven sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals [2][10] - The Two Beta model continues to recommend technology sectors, specifically military computing and battery technologies, while short-term signals suggest a potential rebound for gold stocks after adjustments [2][10]

Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, selling them once growth is realized and PE increases, achieving a multiplier effect on earnings per share (EPS) and PE [2][8] - The strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, outperforming the benchmark by 21.08% [9] - Year-to-date, the strategy has generated a cumulative absolute return of 44.43%, exceeding the CSI 500 index by 25.27% [10] Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises and "discontinuity" indicates a significant upward price gap on the first trading day after earnings announcements [3][12] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.13%, with an annualized excess return of 26.45% [14] - The current year's cumulative absolute return for this strategy is 48.09%, outperforming the benchmark index by 28.93% [14] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, aiming to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and stable growth potential [4][15] - The portfolio has shown stable excess returns historically, with a year-to-date excess return of 17.17% relative to the CSI 300 index [17] - The strategy's performance this week has resulted in an excess return of -2.79% [17]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on non-ferrous metals due to the dovish stance of Powell and the dual easing of fiscal and monetary policies, which are expected to support the sector [1] - The copper market is currently in a state of relative weakness, with prices expected to rebound in September due to seasonal demand increases, despite short-term price weakness [2][14] - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to increased supply and demand concerns, with a forecasted range for aluminum prices between 20,300 and 21,000 yuan/ton [19][20] - Precious metals are experiencing downward pressure, but the dovish signals from the Jackson Hole meeting may lead to a rebound in gold prices [23][24] - Tungsten prices are on the rise, supported by tight supply, although demand from downstream sectors remains weak [54][55] - The rare earth sector is seeing improvements in supply management, with expectations for significant price elasticity and potential for volume and price increases in the third quarter [5] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have slightly decreased, with the current price at 79,110 yuan/ton, and the market is expected to remain relatively weak in the short term [2][14] - Aluminum prices have dropped to 20,775 yuan/ton, influenced by increased supply and concerns over demand, particularly in the real estate sector [19][20] - Gold prices have decreased to 767.33 yuan/gram, with expectations for a rebound due to renewed interest in rate cuts [23][24] - Lead and zinc prices are also under pressure, with lead prices at 16,783 yuan/ton and zinc prices at 22,248 yuan/ton, reflecting weak demand [27][35] Minor Metals - Lithium prices are rising, driven by strong cost support, with current prices around 73,000-76,000 yuan/ton [39] - Cobalt prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with current prices for electrolytic cobalt at 257,000-275,000 yuan/ton [43][44] - Tin prices are supported by low inventory levels, with current prices at 33,775 USD/ton [49][50] Tungsten - Tungsten prices have increased, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 224,000 yuan/ton, reflecting tight supply conditions [54][55] Rare Earths - The release of new regulations is expected to optimize supply in the rare earth sector, with light rare earth prices rising to 622,500 yuan/ton [5]