华福证券 힘 研 宏华数科（688789.SH） 24Q3 业绩增长 29.5%符合预期，行业景气度持续 提升 投资要点： 2024Q1-Q3 公司实现归母净利润 3.1 亿元，同比+29.5% 公司披露 2024 年三季报：1）2024Q1-Q3 公司实现营业收入为 12.65 亿元，同比+43.36%，归母净利润为 3.10 亿元，同比+29.51%。2）2024Q3 单季度，营业收入为 4.49 亿元，同比+39.13%，归母净利润为 1.10 亿 元，同比+19.92%。 24Q3 毛利率同比有所下滑，环比提升 1）毛利率和净利率：2024Q1-Q3 公司销售毛利率和销售净利率分 别为 46.45%/25.39%，同比变动-1.53/-3.02pct；2024Q3 单季度毛利率/ 净 利 率 分 别 为 47.57%/25.29% ， 同 比 -1.2pct/-4.23pct ， 环 比 +1.56pct/-1.03pct。2）费用率：2024Q1-Q3 期间费用率为 17.49%，同 比 +2.23pct 。 其 中 ， 销 售 / 管 理 / 研 发 / 财 务 费 用 率 分 别 为 6.52% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [16]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.194 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 475 million yuan, up 18.99% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.563 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.15%, and a net profit of 321 million yuan, which is an 8.53% year-on-year growth [2]. - The application of AI technology in consumer electronics is accelerating, leading to structural opportunities in the 3C and semiconductor equipment sectors, with AI terminal products expected to drive new production line demands and upgrades [2]. - The acquisition of Japan's Optima has enabled the company to enter the wafer inspection equipment market, enhancing its capabilities in monitoring defects in HBM and TSV processes, and securing bulk equipment orders from major semiconductor manufacturers [3]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 827 million yuan, 998 million yuan, and 1.145 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.6X, 14.6X, and 12.7X, indicating a high valuation cost-effectiveness [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.194 billion yuan and a net profit of 475 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 21.76% and 18.99% [1]. - The Q3 2024 results showed a revenue of 1.563 billion yuan and a net profit of 321 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.15% and 8.53% [2]. - The company’s sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio for the first three quarters were 10.04%, 7.71%, and 8.55%, showing a decrease compared to the previous year [2]. Market Opportunities - The integration of AI technology in consumer electronics is expected to create new opportunities in the 3C and semiconductor equipment markets, particularly with the rise of AI terminal products [2]. - The company’s strategic acquisition of Optima has positioned it well in the wafer inspection equipment sector, allowing it to gain recognition and orders from leading semiconductor manufacturers [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 827 million yuan in 2024, 998 million yuan in 2025, and 1.145 billion yuan in 2026, with P/E ratios indicating strong valuation attractiveness [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Nuclear Power [2][4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.986 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.60%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.22% to 8.934 billion yuan [2] - The decline in net profit is attributed to a decrease in market electricity prices, which affected revenue growth despite a 2.92% increase in electricity output [2] - The report highlights a significant increase in renewable energy output, with a 40.2% year-on-year growth in the third quarter of 2024 and a 48.2% increase for the first three quarters [2] - The company has 18 nuclear units under construction or approved, with an installed capacity of 20.64 GW, and expects improved performance in 2025 following the resolution of short-term disruptions [2] Financial Summary - For 2024, the projected revenue is 77.98 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 10.716 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 1% from the previous year [3][9] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.57 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.2 [3][9] - The financial data indicates a steady growth trajectory, with revenues projected to reach 85.723 billion yuan in 2025 and 92.860 billion yuan in 2026 [3][11]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Viewpoints - The polyurethane industry is expected to see marginal improvement in demand due to policy stimulus, with a focus on leading companies like Wanhua Chemical [3][4] - The MDI and TDI price spreads have improved in October, indicating a positive trend in pricing dynamics [2][3] Summary by Sections Price Spread - As of October 30, the price of polymer MDI is 18,300 CNY/ton, down 1.1% month-on-month, while the price spread with benzene is 11,647.25 CNY/ton, up 2.2% month-on-month. The price of pure MDI is 18,000 CNY/ton, up 2.3% month-on-month, with a price spread of 11,347.25 CNY/ton, up 8.9% month-on-month. TDI is priced at 12,850 CNY/ton, up 1.2% month-on-month [2][8] Supply - The operating rate for polymer MDI is 80% with a stock of 76,000 tons, while TDI's operating rate is 82.64% with a stock of 8,000 tons. In September, the export volume for polymer MDI was 94,880 tons, up 8.7% month-on-month, while pure MDI exports were 7,990 tons, down 21.4% month-on-month. TDI exports were 37,300 tons, up 0.8% month-on-month [3][13] Downstream Demand - The production and export of refrigerators and freezers are maintaining high growth. In September, refrigerator production reached 9.629 million units, up 8.8% year-on-year, and exports were 6.68 million units, up 9.7% year-on-year. Freezer production was 2.423 million units, up 11.0% year-on-year, with exports of 634,900 units, up 8.1% year-on-year. However, the real estate sector remains unstable, with cumulative construction area down 12.2% year-on-year [3][19][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [5][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a 38% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2024, amounting to 636 million yuan, with total revenue for the first three quarters reaching 6.134 billion yuan, a 29.35% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 6.23 percentage points year-on-year but improved by 5.79 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 17% and a net profit CAGR of 20% from 2024 to 2026, with revised revenue estimates of 8.023 billion yuan for 2024, 9.704 billion yuan for 2025, and 11.023 billion yuan for 2026 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 36.2% and a net margin of 23.8%, with Q3 margins at 37.6% and 28.0% respectively [2]. - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is estimated at 6.312 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 2.083 billion yuan, reflecting a 12% growth rate [4][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 4.11 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12, 10, and 8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][11]. Market Trends - The export of aerial work platforms increased by 19.0% in Q3 2024 and 21.3% year-to-date, indicating strong demand in overseas markets [3]. - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer of aerial work platforms globally, benefiting from high overseas market demand and increasing brand recognition [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [5][11]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 1.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 210 million yuan, up 5% year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 460 million yuan, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase and a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase. However, net profit for Q3 2024 was 72 million yuan, down 15% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin showed improvement, reaching 24.50% in Q3 2024, up 0.07 percentage points year-on-year and 1.15 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. This marks a return to relatively high historical levels, second only to certain quarters in 2021 [2]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming Q4 peak season in consumer electronics, with inventory levels being optimized and a significant reduction in inventory turnover days [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a net profit margin of 15.76%, down 5.65 percentage points year-on-year and 2.86 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Sales and management expenses decreased compared to Q2, indicating effective cost control [2]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of 300 million yuan, 385 million yuan, and 459 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to current PE ratios of 29, 23, and 19 times [5][9]. Market Positioning - The trend of consumers seeking higher cost-performance products is beneficial for the company, which has focused on this segment for years. The introduction of new products and partnerships with various brands enhances its market presence [3]. - The company has been actively developing its brand strategy since 2019, with new chip products being adopted by multiple clients, indicating a strong competitive position in the market [3]. Future Outlook - The report projects a continued positive trajectory for the company, with expectations of revenue growth rates of 34%, 25%, and 30% for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 9.14 CNY [3][9]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 19.23 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.4% to 3.37 billion CNY [1]. - The dry bulk segment showed significant growth, while the oil tanker and container shipping sectors faced demand pressures [1]. - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 2.22 to 4.43 billion CNY, reflecting confidence in its future performance [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 19.23 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.37 billion CNY, down 10.4% year-on-year [1]. - The oil transportation segment generated a net profit of 2.06 billion CNY, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, while the dry bulk segment saw a net profit increase of 106.7% to 1.17 billion CNY [1]. - The company’s revenue structure is composed of oil transportation (36%), dry bulk (31%), container shipping (21%), roll-on/roll-off (7%), and other businesses (4%) [1]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.21 billion CNY, 5.68 billion CNY, and 6.33 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.64 CNY, 0.70 CNY, and 0.78 CNY [2][3].

Group 1: Market Trends and Historical Analysis - The report indicates that historically, whenever the turnover rate in A-shares rises significantly, it often signals a bullish market trend that may last for 3-6 months. The spike in turnover on October 8 is viewed as a potential indicator of a new upward trend [1][8][19]. - The report highlights that there have been eight instances since the beginning of this century where the turnover rate reached high levels, with all instances showing a significant increase in turnover [1][8][19]. - The report notes that in bull markets, rapid increases in trading volume and turnover rates typically indicate the entry of major funds, suggesting that there may be considerable market movements ahead [1][19][21]. Group 2: New Stock Performance - This week, three new stocks were listed, and the average weekly increase for all new stocks listed in the past year was 2.89%, outperforming the Wind All A index by 0.17 percentage points [1][23]. - The top three performing new stocks this week were Yunxingyu, Xuchang Intelligent, and Kangnong Agricultural, with increases of 34.97%, 22.75%, and 17.55% respectively [1][23]. Group 3: Industry Performance - The report states that the comprehensive industry in A-shares led the market this week, with significant growth compared to the previous week. The top-performing sectors included electric power equipment and new energy, with increases of 8.85% and 8.20% respectively [1][24]. - Conversely, the report identifies that the sectors of comprehensive finance, banking, and computing performed poorly, with declines of 1.84%, 1.72%, and 0.78% respectively [1][24]. Group 4: Market Activity and Style - The report indicates that market activity showed a slight increase compared to the previous week, with all broad-based indices, except for the CSI 300, experiencing a small uptick in trading volume [1][27][29]. - The report emphasizes a preference for small-cap and growth styles in the market, with small-cap indices outperforming mid-cap and large-cap indices [1][31][33].

Industry Rating - Stronger than the market (maintained rating) [2] Core Views - CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is a key solution to break through the cost and power consumption bottlenecks in backend network scaling, offering significant advantages in signal attenuation reduction, system power consumption reduction, cost efficiency, and high integration [3] - Optic IO enables vertical expansion in ultra-bandwidth domains, facilitating the scaling up of more GPUs through chip-to-chip optical interconnects [4] - The report highlights investment opportunities in optical devices, optical chip coupling, and packaging and testing equipment driven by CPO advancements [5] Market Space and Growth Projections - CPO can reduce power consumption by 70% at the optical interconnect level and by approximately 30% at the switch level compared to traditional pluggable optical solutions [3] - For a 32K GPU cluster, CPO can save over 1MW of power [3] - The average selling price of optical engines is expected to drop from below $1.2/Gbps in 2021 to below $0.6/Gbps in 2024, and further to $0.24/Gbps by 2028 [3] - 51.2Tbps switch shipments are projected to grow from 77,000 units/month in 2024 to 1.8 million units in 2028, with a potential CPO optical engine market size of approximately $22 billion by 2028 [3] Technological Advancements - Broadcom's CPO solution achieves 6.4Tbps I/O bandwidth per optical engine, enabling large-scale scaling with a transmission range of 5m-30m and connecting 512 GPUs via 64 high-port-density switches [4] - Companies like Tianfu Communication, Zhongji Innolight, and Accelink are making significant progress in CPO-related technologies, including multi-channel high-power lasers, silicon photonic chip design, and self-developed light source modules [5] - FiconTEC is a leading manufacturer of photonic automation micro-assembly and testing equipment, supporting global players like Intel, Cisco, Broadcom, and Nvidia in the development and mass production of CPO and silicon photonics [5] Key Companies to Watch - Optical modules & optical engines: Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink, Tianfu Communication, Accelink [6] - Optical devices: T&S Communications, Broadex Technologies, Shijia Photonics [6]

华福证券 基本数据 日期 2024-10-29 收盘价： 7.34 元 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 14,442.20/14,442.20 流通 A 股市值(百万元) 106,005.75 每股净资产(元) 1.09 资产负债率(%) 28.69 一年内最高/最低价(元) 7.78/5.22 财务数据和估值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 9,425 11,904 12,652 13,593 14,421 增长率 -36% 26% 6% 7% 6% 净利润（百万元） 2,790 4,827 5,316 5,750 6,334 增长率 -54% 73% 10% 8% 10% EPS（元/股） 0.19 0.33 0.37 0.40 0.44 市盈率（P/E） 38.0 22.0 19.9 18.4 16.7 市净率（P/B） 6.3 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.4 数据来源：公司公告、华福证券研究所 币种：人民币 and Tax 2017 分众传媒（002027.SZ） 业绩稳健增长，关注第四季度表现 投资要点： 公司发布2024年第三季度报告：分众传媒2024年 ...