Core Insights - The report emphasizes a dynamic balance strategy that has achieved an annualized absolute return of 18.85% and a relative return of 12.26% from January 2015 to January 30, 2026, with a maximum drawdown of 10.18% [3] - Recommended industries for February 2026 include non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, electric equipment and new energy, communication, light manufacturing, and steel [3][25] - The macro-driven strategy has generated an annualized excess return of 4.77% since January 2016, with a maximum drawdown of 9.51% [4][45] - The multi-strategy approach has yielded an annualized relative return of 6.32% since May 2011, with a maximum drawdown of 13.24% [5][66] - The extreme style high beta strategy has achieved an annualized relative return of 9.93% since July 2013, but has underperformed in 2026 with a relative excess return of -4.02% [5][80] Industry Performance Summary - In January 2026, the A-share market saw the CSI 300 index rise by 1.65%, while the CSI 500 index increased by 12.12% [16] - The top-performing sectors in January were non-ferrous metals, media, oil and petrochemicals, building materials, and electronics [16] - The dynamic balance strategy outperformed its benchmark in January with an absolute return of 9.18% and an excess return of 4.05% [22][55] - The macro-driven strategy achieved an absolute return of 6.76% in January, with an excess return of 1.20% [4][48] - The multi-strategy approach recorded an absolute return of 4.65% in January, but underperformed its benchmark with an excess return of -0.42% [5][69] Recommended Industries - The dynamic balance strategy recommends non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, electric equipment and new energy, communication, light manufacturing, and steel for February 2026 [3][25] - The macro-driven strategy suggests food and beverage, defense and military, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, communication, and basic chemicals for February 2026 [4][24] - The multi-strategy approach recommends real estate, construction, banking, communication, textiles and apparel, pharmaceuticals, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals for February 2026 [5][56] - The extreme style high beta strategy recommends transportation, electric utilities, basic chemicals, machinery, banking, and oil and petrochemicals for February 2026 [5][74]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [70] Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing a faster pace of market release, leading to a decline in pig prices. As of January 30, the price was 12.24 CNY/kg, down 0.68 CNY/kg week-on-week. The profits for self-bred and purchased piglets were 25.10 CNY/head and 124.13 CNY/head, showing a week-on-week change of -18.25 CNY and +8.29 CNY respectively [2][8][29] - In the beef sector, calf prices are rising, and import restrictions on beef are expected to support long-term price increases. As of January 30, the price for fattened bulls was 25.71 CNY/kg, up 0.19% week-on-week, while calf prices were 33.14 CNY/kg, up 0.15% week-on-week [3][31] - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in white chicken prices due to pre-Spring Festival stocking. As of January 30, the price for white feathered meat chickens was 7.74 CNY/kg, up 0.24% week-on-week [3][36] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The pace of market release is accelerating, resulting in a decline in pig prices. The average weight of pigs released is decreasing, with the industry average at 127.86 kg, down 1.03 kg week-on-week. The supply from large farms is increasing, contributing to the price drop [2][19][29] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.61 million, down 290,000 from October, indicating a gradual effect of capacity reduction policies [2][29] Beef Industry - The calf market is tight, leading to price increases. The long-term outlook for beef prices is positive due to supply constraints from reduced breeding cow numbers [3][31] - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented measures to restrict imported beef, which is expected to benefit domestic beef prices [3][31] Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing price increases due to tight supply and increased demand from pre-holiday stocking. The price for chicken products is also rising, with a notable increase in profits for both chicken farming and slaughtering [3][36][39] Dairy Industry - The raw milk price is currently at a low point, with expectations for continued capacity reduction. As of January 23, the price was 3.04 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week. The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases [3][32][34] Seed Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture is enhancing market inspections and intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to improve market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified crops [3][45]

Group 1: Mobile Industry - The global smartphone shipment is expected to reach 1.24 billion units in 2025, with a moderate growth rate of 1.5% CAGR from 2024 to 2029 [3][19] - Samsung maintained its position as the global leader in smartphone shipments with 60.6 million units and a 19% market share in Q3 2025, followed by Apple with 56.5 million units and a 4% year-on-year increase [3][19] - The demand for high-quality imaging is driving the need for CMOS image sensors (CIS), with the global CIS market projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.4% from $23.2 billion in 2024 to $30.1 billion by 2030 [32][39] Group 2: SoC Industry - The SoC industry is entering an "ALL IN AI" phase in 2026, with NPU becoming a core architecture that drives system operations, marking a shift from being auxiliary to a primary component [4][56] - Domestic SoC manufacturers are leveraging AI co-processor strategies to penetrate high-value edge computing markets, with companies like Rockchip achieving significant gross margin improvements [4][54] - The AIoT sector is expected to see rapid growth, particularly in AI glasses, which are becoming a general computing platform and terminal, supported by government subsidies [66][67] Group 3: Semiconductor Manufacturing - The semiconductor industry is focusing on both advanced and mature process technologies, with companies like SMIC and Hua Hong expected to increase their advanced manufacturing capacities [5][75] - There are significant investment opportunities in specialized manufacturing processes, with companies like Chipone and Silex Microelectronics leading in their respective fields [5][79] - The semiconductor equipment market is seeing growth through both organic expansion and mergers, with companies like North China Innovation and Zhongwei planning strategic acquisitions to enhance their product offerings [5][76] Group 4: Storage and AI - The global storage chip market is entering a super cycle, with prices expected to rise due to increased demand driven by AI applications, with Micron's CEO indicating this cycle may last until 2027 [6][6] - Companies involved in the HBM supply chain, such as Yake Technology and Huahai Chengke, are recommended for investment as the demand for high-performance memory continues to grow [6][6] Group 5: PCB Industry - The PCB industry is facing a tight supply-demand balance, particularly in high-end PCBs, with major manufacturers struggling to meet the growing demand from AI and high-frequency markets [10][10] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in leading PCB companies that are actively expanding their production capacities to meet the increasing demand [10][10]

Investment Insights - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical index observed negative returns across six sub-industries during the week [1] - China's biopharmaceutical industry is transitioning from a "rapid expansion" phase (1.0 era) to a "value and global competitiveness" phase (2.0 era), marking its emergence as the second-largest new drug launch market globally [1][6] - By 2025, the external licensing transaction value is expected to exceed $50 billion, with China establishing a leadership position in disruptive technologies such as targeted protein degradation [1][6] Industry Overview - China accounted for 18% of the global share of new molecular entities (NME) launched in 2024, ranking second worldwide [6] - The number of new drug pipelines in China represents approximately 30% of the global total, maintaining its position as the second-largest globally [6] - In the targeted protein degradation (TPD) field, China contributes 38% of global research papers and 37% of patents, with around 30% of the 484 TPD candidates in development originating from China [6] Market Performance - The report notes that the biopharmaceutical sector's performance was mixed, with traditional Chinese medicine and biological products experiencing declines of -1.94% and -2.50%, respectively [8] - The highest valuation levels were recorded for biological products (91.41 times) and chemical pharmaceuticals (79.85 times), while traditional Chinese medicine and pharmaceutical commerce had lower valuations of 31.70 times and 22.42 times, respectively [8] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to face both opportunities and challenges as it enters the new "14th Five-Year Plan" cycle, with a trend towards "the rich getting richer" and a focus on source innovation and global expansion [7] - Key challenges include resource misallocation due to concentrated research on popular targets, high R&D costs, and the need for improved international capabilities among many companies [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's New Vision - The Federal Reserve's new vision indicates a shift away from its role as a global central bank, focusing more on supporting U.S. government industrial policies rather than total monetary control[2] - The Fed's de-emphasis on total monetary control may provide a solution to the U.S. dollar debt issue, but adjustments to U.S. debt policy could impact core interests of U.S. financial assets, particularly U.S. stocks[2] Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Implications - Constraints on U.S. government debt could significantly weaken the U.S.-led global order, potentially reducing the dollar's status and decreasing the U.S. GDP share globally, which may lower overall U.S. productivity[3] - The expansion of RMB credit may lead to a rapid increase in China's GDP share globally, with external risks for China expected to decline significantly[3] Group 3: Impact of AI and Inflation - The new monetary mechanism suggests that the Fed may no longer act as a buyer of fiscal deficits, transitioning to a role as a partner in fiscal discipline, creating a new monetary framework[11] - AI is viewed as a structural deflationary force that can lower economic costs and drive productivity growth, suggesting that inflation control should not target AI companies[13] Group 4: Market Reassessment and Risks - The market may reassess companies based on their transparency and efficiency, with potential short-term relief on dollar depreciation but long-term risks to the dollar's position[14] - Risks include the possibility that the Fed's policy implementation may not meet expectations, uncertainties in U.S. economic policy, and the potential underperformance of AI development[15]

Group 1 - The report highlights a recent historical surge in gold and silver prices, with significant fluctuations observed, including a drop of 9.25% for gold and 26.42% for silver on January 30 [10][14] - The driving forces behind the recent gold and silver price increases include a weak dollar, U.S. monetary policy actions, and insufficient capital expenditure in mining, with geopolitical events further influencing market sentiment [14] - The report notes that market sentiment has adjusted, with a decrease in industry rotation intensity, indicating a preference for large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks [31][51] Group 2 - The market valuation shows an increase in the stock-bond yield spread to 0.4%, which is below the +1 standard deviation threshold, indicating a decline in valuation dispersion [29] - Market liquidity has increased, with significant trading activity in coal, steel, and oil sectors, suggesting potential alpha opportunities in the computer, electronics, and machinery sectors [35] - The report indicates that the average daily trading volume for the Stock Connect increased by 506.51 billion yuan, with notable inflows into non-ferrous metals, communications, and construction decoration sectors [39] Group 3 - The report identifies key industry trends, including partnerships between four robotics companies and the Spring Festival Gala, which may catalyze growth in the robotics sector [48] - The launch of the Kimi K2.5 open-source model by Kimi represents a significant advancement in AI capabilities, integrating visual understanding and agent capabilities, suggesting investment opportunities in AI [49] - The approval of the first batch of game licenses in January 2026, with 177 domestic and 5 imported games, indicates a continuous expansion of the gaming industry supply [50] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of large-cap stock styles and anticipates a traditional spring market rally following the Chinese New Year, with historical data suggesting better performance post-holiday [51]

Group 1 - The new vision of the Federal Reserve indicates a shift away from its role as a global central bank, focusing more on supporting U.S. government industrial policies rather than total monetary control [2][10] - The adjustment in U.S. debt policy may impact the core interests of U.S. financial assets, particularly those represented by U.S. stocks, necessitating careful observation of its feasibility [2][10] - The potential for a new phase in U.S.-China relations is highlighted, with the rapid expansion of RMB credit expected to significantly reduce external risks for China [3][12] Group 2 - The appointment of Kevin Walsh as the Federal Reserve Chair signifies a fundamental shift in U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, emphasizing accountability in government spending and fraud rather than merely controlling economic growth [6][9] - Walsh's perspective on inflation challenges the current model, suggesting that excessive government printing and spending are the true causes, while AI could serve as a structural deflationary force [9][11] - The new monetary mechanism under Walsh may lead to a redefinition of the Federal Reserve's role from "financing fiscal deficits" to being a "partner in fiscal discipline," creating a new monetary framework [10][11] Group 3 - The market may undergo a revaluation of companies based on their transparency and efficiency, with a potential decline in the U.S. dollar's status and a reduction in the U.S. GDP share globally [12] - The internal productivity transformation focus of the Federal Reserve could lead to increased debt expansion among households and businesses, potentially driving up commodity prices and negatively impacting U.S. tech stocks [3][12]

策 略 研 究 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 02 日 如何理解近期金银历史性的行情？ 团队成员 投资要点： 本周（1/26-1/30）市场震荡整理，全 A 收跌-1.59%。从指数情况看， 中证红利、上证 50 领涨，中证 500、科创 50 领跌。从风格情况看，周期、 金融地产领涨，医药医疗、先进制造领跌。本周 31 个申万行业涨少跌多， 石油石化、通信、煤炭领涨，汽车、电力设备、国防军工领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差上升，行业轮动强度下降。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差上升至 0.4%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所下降。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪调整，行业轮动强度下降。市场大盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在黄金珠宝、光模块(CPO)、光通信。（3） 市场结构：市场量能环比上升，煤炭、钢铁、石油石化多头个股占比居前， 计算机、电子、机械设备内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本周陆股通 周内日平均成交金额较上周上升 507 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平均成交笔 数较上周上升 206 万笔。本周陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为宁德时代、 中际旭创、紫金矿业，近 5 日 ...

Group 1 - The total IPO financing scale in the A-share market for January 2026 was 11.887 billion, a decrease of 4% month-on-month. The main board raised 4.279 billion, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board raised 5.603 billion [4][5]. - A total of 13 new stocks were issued in January, representing an 8% increase month-on-month, with 3 from the main board and 4 from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [5]. - As of the end of January, there were 59 IPO projects approved but not yet issued across all A-share sectors, with a total proposed fundraising scale of 45.36 billion. The main board accounted for 32% of the proposed fundraising [11]. Group 2 - The average offline subscription limit for new stocks in the past three months was mostly in the range of [2,3) and [5,10) billion for the main board, while the ChiNext had limits mostly in the [1,2) billion range [12]. - In January, the number of offline inquiry objects for the main board and Sci-Tech Innovation Board reached 1,181 and 534, respectively, with a month-on-month decrease of 47% for the main board [16]. - The average winning rate for new stocks in January was 0.0068% for A-class accounts and 0.0054% for B-class accounts on the main board, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 5% and 19% respectively [18]. Group 3 - The average first-day price increase for new stocks on the main board in January was 41% (3 stocks), while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw an average increase of 76% (4 stocks) [23]. - The contribution of new stocks to funds was measured, with funds in the 1-2 billion range seeing a contribution of +0.123% and those in the 2-3 billion range seeing +0.082%, with an annualized return of 0.318% for 8 billion scale funds [28]. - In January 2026, a total of 3,449 funds participated in new stock subscriptions, with a total scale of 7.5 trillion. The most numerous were equity mixed funds, with 1,291 funds participating [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The theme morphology aims to create a tool for thematic investment, identifying thematic opportunities through volume - price data and morphological analysis, and realizing the investability of thematic "indices" [6]. - On January 30, 2026, the latest output of theme morphology shows that new themes in right - side breakthrough include yellow rice wine, Hang Seng real estate, soybeans, etc.; themes in continuous right - side trend are photovoltaic, power equipment, display screen, aluminum, etc.; new themes in bottom stabilization and bottom reversal both include liquor [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogues Right - side Breakthrough Thematic Opportunities - Newly added themes are yellow rice wine, Hang Seng real estate, soybeans, etc. The 5 - day, 20 - day, and YTD (Year - to - Date)涨幅 of the yellow rice wine index are 4%, 8%, and 7% respectively; those of the Hang Seng real estate and property management index are 7%, 15%, and 12% respectively; those of the soybean index are 13%, 15%, and 15% respectively [3][6][7]. Right - side Trend Thematic Opportunities - Continuously trending themes include photovoltaic, power equipment, display screen, aluminum, etc. For example, the 5 - day, 20 - day, and YTD涨幅 of the photovoltaic index are - 4%, 16%, and 14% respectively; those of the aluminum industry index are - 1%, 15%, and 12% respectively [3][6][9]. Bottom Stabilization Thematic Opportunities - Newly added theme is liquor. The 5 - day, 20 - day, and YTD涨幅 of the liquor index are 4%, 3%, and 2% respectively. Other themes in bottom stabilization include express delivery, jewelry, etc. [3][6][13]. Bottom Reversal Thematic Opportunities - Newly added theme is liquor. The 5 - day, 20 - day, and YTD涨幅 of the liquor index are 4%, 3%, and 2% respectively. Other themes in bottom reversal include methanol, ophthalmic medical, etc. [3][6][15].