[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 宝丰能源(600989.SH) 2025 年 04 月 10 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：基础化工/化学原料 当前价格(元)：15.48 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 宝丰能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -13.42 | -10.74 | -11.17 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -6.90 | -5.45 | -8.71 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：价差修复 产能释放，看好公司长期成长！》， 2025.3.12 2.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：进入产能 高速释放阶段！》，2024.12.26 3.《宝丰能源(600989 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 04 月 08 日 核心观点：截止 3 月底，中国外汇储备 32406.65 亿美元，环比增加 134.4 亿美 元。3 月美元指数回落，汇兑收益或导致估值效应带来外储增值；3 月出口或维持 较强，交易因素也可能导致外储增值。向前看，外储方面，预计短期估值效应推动 外储增值，交易因素则可能造成不小的外储减值压力；汇率方面，关税冲击消化后 人民币汇率有望回升；央行货币政策方面，外部冲击已至，宽货币"择机"窗口或 即将到来。 估值效应和交易因素或共同推动 3 月外储增加：从外储变化的各因素来看，估值 效应和交易因素或都带来了外储增加的动力。一方面，美元走弱导致非美外债产生 汇兑收益；另一方面，出口有望维持强势，交易因素也可能导致外储增加。 估值效应： 欧、日长债收益率普升， ...

相关研究 重视粮食安全与种业自主可控的投资机遇 ——2025 年中观产业主题系列 2 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 政策强调种业自主可控和粮食安全的重要性 事件 1：2025 年 4 月 7 日，中共中央、国务院印发了《加快建设农业强国规划（2024 －2035 年）》，强调加快以种业为重点的农业科技创新，加快实现种业科技自立自 强、种源自主可控。加快建设南繁硅谷。实施生物育种重大专项。 事件 2：2025 年 2 月 23 日，《中共中央国务院关于进一步深化农村改革扎实推进 乡村全面振兴的意见》正式向社会公布，强调确保国家粮食安全，确保不发生规模 性返贫致贫。继续把确保国家粮食安全摆在首要位置，强调深入推进粮油作物大面 积单产提升行动。 重视粮食+食品安全、生物育种的投资机遇 围绕粮食+食品安全与生物育种的投资机遇正逐步展开，随着海外关税政策不确定 性的提高，粮食与食品进口的量价的稳定性可能会持续受到冲击，牢牢把 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - China's response to U.S. tariffs includes a 34% additional tariff on all imports from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, and export controls on certain rare earth elements [5]. - The precious metals market is experiencing increased volatility due to U.S. tariff announcements, with gold prices rising by 2.5% in the domestic market [5]. - Industrial metals are facing downward price pressure, particularly copper, which has seen a price drop of 2.0% on the SHFE and 9.8% on the LME [5]. - The report highlights a potential long-term bullish trend for precious metals, especially gold, due to declining real interest rates [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - Precious Metals: Gold prices have decreased, while ETF holdings have increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange closing at 739 CNY per gram, a weekly change of 2.5% [10]. - Industrial Metals: Prices are predominantly declining, with SHFE copper down 2.0% and LME copper down 9.8% [27]. - Rare Earths & Tungsten: Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have increased, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [5]. - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with a focus on future demand growth [5]. 2. Market Performance - The report notes significant price changes across various metals, with copper and aluminum both experiencing declines [28]. - The SHFE copper price is reported at 78,860 CNY per ton, reflecting a 2.0% weekly decrease [29]. - Aluminum prices have also dropped, with SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 0.8% [43]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals and industrial metals, with specific stock recommendations provided [6]. - For precious metals, companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold are recommended due to their potential for growth [6]. - In industrial metals, companies such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao are highlighted for their resilience and growth potential [6].

有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1. 《 黄 金 ： 万 里 长 征 方 起 步 》， 2025.4.1 2.《赤峰黄金：提产降本推动利润提 升》，2025.4.1 3.《藏格矿业（000408.SZ）：巨龙铜 业投资收益大幅增长，巨龙二期稳步 推进》，2025.3.31 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 4.《云铝股份：业绩水平提升，电解 铝产量创历史新高》，2025.3.31 5.《有色金属周报：关税已敲定，地 缘 风 云 再 起 ， 坚 定 黄 金 主 线 》， 2025.3.30 有色金属 2025 年 04 月 07 日 有色金属周报：对美关税反制， 战略金属价值显现，黄金再迎布 局良 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场动态跟踪 2025 年 04 月 07 日 海外市场动态跟踪 德邦证券 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 应对衰退交易风暴 ——精卫填"海"系列（十一） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 近期特朗普的关税政策加剧衰退交易，表现为美债利率下行、美元指数下行、美股 下跌、前期价格坚挺的有色金属大幅下跌。我们锚定"经济复苏尾声"、"全球报复 性关税"两个变量，将 1929-1932 年大萧条时期作为参考情形，为后续全球市场 可能的演绎方向提供借鉴。 大萧条时期美国经济处于扩张周期尾声，萧条期间美国出台保护性关税，加剧经济 衰退，与当前的情景较为类似，回顾大萧条时期的资产价格表现： 美债利率整体下行，1931 年阶段性走升。大萧条期间，国债作为避险资产更受投 资者青睐，利率整体下行，但到了 1931 年，由于英国等国家已经宣布放弃金本位， 投资者担心美国也会效仿，开始将美元资产兑换成黄金，为了应对黄金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - In the week from March 31 to April 3, after the cross - quarter, the capital interest rate declined, the net financing of large banks' lending increased, the net financing of certificates of deposit increased, and the issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit with various maturities generally decreased. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were funds, but the scale of their net purchases decreased, mainly concentrated in 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds and credit bonds within 1Y [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monetary and Capital Market - **Open - market operations**: There were 1186.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due this week. The central bank injected 684.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases from Monday to Thursday, with a net liquidity injection of - 501.9 billion yuan for the whole week [5][10]. - **Funding rates**: As of April 3, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.66%, 1.74%, 1.62%, and 1.7% respectively, with changes of - 12.02BP, - 51.42BP, - 9.58BP, and - 35.28BP compared to March 28, and were at the 26%, 13%, 26%, and 9% historical quantiles respectively [5][13]. - **Net financing of main institutions**: The net financing of major lending institutions (large commercial banks/policy banks and joint - stock commercial banks) was 347 billion yuan for the whole week (March 31 - April 3), an increase of 1058.7 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The net financing of fund companies and securities companies was - 5.58 billion yuan and 3.02 billion yuan respectively, with a decrease of 27.74 billion yuan and 3.03 billion yuan compared with the previous week [5][16]. - **Pledged repurchase volume and overnight repurchase ratio**: The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase was 60.8 trillion yuan, a 4% decrease from the previous week's average daily value. The average daily proportion of overnight repurchase was 86.4%, an increase of 4.53 percentage points from the previous week's average daily value, and was at the 60.4% quantile as of April 3 [5][23]. - **Leverage ratios of institutions**: As of April 3, the leverage ratios of banks, securities, insurance, and broad - based funds were 103.0%, 198.2%, 129.1%, and 105.4% respectively, with changes of 0.09BP, 1.51BP, - 3.17BP, and - 0.07BP compared to March 28, and were at the 9%, 17%, 77%, and 37% historical quantiles respectively [5][24]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **Issuance and net financing of certificates of deposit**: The total issuance of certificates of deposit was 272.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 557.69 billion yuan from the previous week. The total amount due was 101.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 718.38 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing was 170.47 billion yuan, an increase of 160.69 billion yuan from the previous week [5][29]. - **Issuance by bank type**: Joint - stock commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. The issuance scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 54.76 billion yuan, 107.63 billion yuan, 81.88 billion yuan, and 18.05 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 321.10 billion yuan, - 72.82 billion yuan, - 148.51 billion yuan, and - 18.28 billion yuan compared to the previous week [29]. - **Issuance by maturity type**: The 1Y certificates of deposit had the highest issuance scale. The issuance scales of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y certificates of deposit were 18.81 billion yuan, 82.13 billion yuan, 2.95 billion yuan, 19.72 billion yuan, and 148.4 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 62.91 billion yuan, - 229.59 billion yuan, - 108.97 billion yuan, - 53.27 billion yuan, and - 102.95 billion yuan compared to the previous week [30]. - **Interest rates of certificates of deposit**: The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit of all banks and all maturities decreased. As of April 3, the one - year issuance interest rates of joint - stock commercial banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks decreased by - 2.18BP, - 3BP, - 7.36BP, and - 5.07BP respectively compared to March 28, and were at the 5%, 7%, 2%, and 2% historical quantiles. The issuance interest rates of 1M, 3M, and 6M certificates of deposit decreased by - 15.38BP, - 3.19BP, and - 2.23BP respectively compared to March 28, and were at the 12%, 8%, and 4% historical quantiles [40]. - **Bill interest rates**: As of April 3, the 3M direct - discount rate, 3M transfer - discount rate, 6M direct - discount rate, and 6M transfer - discount rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks were 1.25%, 1.09%, 1.14%, and 1.12% respectively, with changes of - 58BP, - 66BP, - 25BP, and - 21BP compared to March 28 [5][46]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Main buyers and sellers of cash bonds**: The main buyers of cash bonds this week were funds, with a net purchase of 125.5 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week. The main sellers were joint - stock commercial banks, with a net sale of 184.4 billion yuan, also a decrease from the previous week [5][48]. - **Net purchases of different institutions**: - **Funds**: Net - bought 125.5 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 70.7 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 37.1 billion yuan in credit bonds, 33.5 billion yuan in other bonds (including Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds), and a decrease of 15.7 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly concentrated in the 7 - 10Y range, and credit bonds were mainly within 1Y [48]. - **Wealth management products**: Net - bought 50.2 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 12.3 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 8.7 billion yuan in credit bonds, 6.3 billion yuan in other bonds, and an increase of 23 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. Interest - rate and credit bonds were mainly within 1Y [49]. - **Rural financial institutions**: Net - bought 39.7 billion yuan of cash bonds, including a decrease of 24.8 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 200 million yuan in credit bonds, an increase of 2.3 billion yuan in other bonds, and an increase of 61.9 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. Interest - rate bonds were mainly reduced in the 7 - 10Y range, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the 1 - 3Y range [49]. - **Insurance companies**: Net - bought 30.2 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 23 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 1.6 billion yuan in credit bonds, a decrease of 6.3 billion yuan in other bonds, and an increase of 11.8 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. Interest - rate bonds were mainly concentrated in the 15 - 20Y range, and credit bonds were mainly in the 3 - 5Y range [49].

薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025 年 4 月 6 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场周报 证券分析师 应对"对等关税"冲击波 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 上周全球股市集体回调。沪深 300 和中国台湾加权指数跌幅较小。美股三大指数 大幅回调，道指、标普 500 和纳指涨跌幅分别为-7.9%、-9.1%和-10.0%，在大非 农数据超预期的背景下，美股并未止跌，并在鲍威尔稍后的偏鹰发言后加速下行； 欧洲市场三大主要指数集体回调；亚太地区除日本和越南外回调幅度相对较小。 各国应对"对等关税"的差异为何如此之大？周四凌晨的"对等关税"发布后，各 国应对方式分化显著。中国率先对等反制，欧盟表态将进行反制，拒绝单方面让步； 部分国家正争取谈判空间；日、韩等则以妥协为主；大多数中小型经济体则不明确 表态。各国应对方式分化显著的原因有二，一是对内需的信心有差别，市场庞大的 中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2] Core Insights - The Chinese innovative drug sector is entering a harvest period, with a focus on technological innovation and business development (BD) potential [5] - Companies such as Sangfor Biopharma, Kexing Pharmaceutical, and Yifang Biotech are highlighted for their strong growth prospects and innovative pipelines [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Chinese Innovative Drugs Entering Harvest Period - **Sangfor Biopharma**: Core products are showing steady growth, and the innovative pipeline is gradually yielding results. The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody AK112 has become the first drug to outperform K drug in head-to-head Phase III clinical trials, enhancing the development enthusiasm for PD(L)-1/VEGF dual antibodies. The company has three ongoing clinical trials demonstrating excellent efficacy and BD potential [7][8] - **Kexing Pharmaceutical**: The CAR-T therapy shows significant potential, with its first product, CT053, approved for treating multiple myeloma in February 2024. Another product, CT041, is a potential first-in-class CAR-T for Claudin18.2, with a Phase II trial for gastric cancer completed. The company is well-positioned in the universal CAR-T technology space [11][12] - **Yifang Biotech**: The drug D-2570 shows promising data for treating psoriasis, with clinical results indicating significant efficacy compared to placebo. The drug is in Phase II trials and ranks third among domestic products, with a large patient population and a competitive landscape [14][15] 2. Weekly Market Review and Hotspot Tracking (March 31 - April 3, 2025) - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector index rose by 1.2%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.57%. Year-to-date, the sector index has increased by 4.77%, also outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.64 [16][18] - The top five performing stocks during this period included Duorui Pharmaceutical (up 56.32%), Weisi Medical (up 31.80%), and Hasanlian (up 31.15%) [29][32] 3. Overall Investment Strategy and Allocation Thoughts - The development of AI is driving the widespread adoption of AI in healthcare, with many medical companies exploring AI applications. Companies with extensive patient data and those with health insurance data are expected to have significant application potential. The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs and companies with a turning point in fundamentals [4][5]

证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025 年 4 月 6 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 应对"对等关税"冲击波 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 上周全球股市集体回调。沪深 300 和中国台湾加权指数跌幅较小。美股三大指数 大幅回调，道指、标普 500 和纳指涨跌幅分别为-7.9%、-9.1%和-10.0%，在大非 农数据超预期的背景下，美股并未止跌，并在鲍威尔稍后的偏鹰发言后加速下行； 欧洲市场三大主要指数集体回调；亚太地区除日本和越南外回调幅度相对较小。 各国应对"对等关税"的差异为何如此之大？周四凌晨的"对等关税"发布后，各 国应对方式分化显著。中国率先对等反制，欧盟表态将进行反制，拒绝单方面让步； 部分国家正争取谈判空间；日、韩等则以妥协为主；大多数中小型经济体则不明确 表态。各国应对方式分化显著的原因有二，一是对内需的信心有差别，市场庞大的 中 ...