Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has underperformed the market recently, with a decline of 5.1% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's decline of 3.1% during the week of April 3 to April 11, 2025 [6][17] - The price of fatty alcohol has seen a significant increase, with an average market price of 24,500 RMB/ton as of April 11, 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 13.4% and a year-on-year increase of 81.5% [27][28] - Supply-side issues are prevalent in the fatty alcohol sector, with several production facilities undergoing maintenance, leading to a tightening supply situation [29] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the basic chemical industry is entering a new long-term growth cycle, driven by policy support and improving supply-demand dynamics [14] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the fatty alcohol supply chain, particularly due to rising prices and demand stability in downstream applications [29] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has decreased by 5.1% in the recent week, ranking 17th among 31 industry sectors [6][17] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has outperformed both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [17] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 426 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 72 stocks increased while 354 stocks decreased in value during the recent week [25] - The top-performing stocks included Runpu Food (+47%) and Quartz Co. (+42%) [26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report notes that the supply of fatty alcohol is expected to tighten further, with significant production capacity scheduled for maintenance [27] - Companies like Juhua Co. and Tongyi Zhong are projected to report substantial profit increases in Q1 2025, driven by strong market demand and price increases in their core products [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has underperformed the market recently, with a decline of 5.1% in the industry index compared to a 3.1% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index during the week of April 3 to April 11 [6][17] - The report highlights a significant increase in the price of fatty alcohol, which reached an average of 24,500 CNY/ton, up 800 CNY/ton from the previous trading day, marking a month-on-month increase of 13.4% and a year-on-year increase of 81.5% [27][28] - Supply-side issues are expected to persist due to frequent maintenance of fatty alcohol production facilities and a rigid demand from downstream surfactant sectors [29] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by policy support and supply-side reforms [14] - Key investment themes include focusing on core assets, industries facing supply constraints, and sectors with upward demand certainty [15][16] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has decreased by 5.1% in the recent week, ranking 17th among 31 industry sectors [17] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has outperformed both the Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext indices [17] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 426 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 72 stocks rose while 354 fell during the week [25] - The top gainers included companies like Runpu Food (+47%) and Quartz Co. (+42%), while the biggest losers included Xiangyuan New Materials (-21.6%) and Yongli Co. (-19.8%) [26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report notes that the supply of fatty alcohol is tightening, with significant production capacity expected to be offline soon [27] - Companies like Juhua Co. and Tongyi Zhong are projected to see substantial profit increases in Q1 2025 due to rising prices and stable operations [30][31]

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 对美关税贸易摩擦升级，焦炭首轮提涨延缓。A）价格及事件回顾：本周，京唐 港主焦煤价格为 1380 元/吨（环比持平）。焦煤方面：产地方面，主产区前期停 产限产煤矿复产，供给小幅回升。下游方面，第十一轮焦炭提降落地后，焦企行 业利润处于盈亏平衡边缘，但在钢厂复工复产的带动下，焦炭开工积极性有所回 升。根据 Mysteel 数据，本周全样本独立焦企产能利用率 72.96%，环比增加 0.28 PCT。焦炭方面：近期焦炭企业提出首轮提涨，但因美国关税贸易摩擦，市场情 绪转弱，提涨暂未落地。下游方面，钢厂延续复产，铁水产量出现快速反弹。钢 材表现好转下，贸易商拿货积极，厂内库存持续降低。本周 247 家铁水日均产量 为 240.22 万吨，环比增加 1.49 万吨。在供需格局上，钢厂复产推动铁水需求， 焦炭刚需增强下，我们认为短期煤焦钢或有支撑。B)价格短期观点：我们认为在 宏观预期改善下 ...

研究助理 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 通信 优于大市（维持） 市场表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 49% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《通宇通讯(002792.SZ)：全栈布局 初现雏形，参与通信试验卫星》， 2025.4.11 2.《卫星互联网手机宽带直连，天地 融合通信将加速》，2025.4.5 3.《运营商投资向算力倾斜，AIDC 具 有持续性》，2025.3.29 4.《中国移动(600941.SH)：HBN 拉 动业务增长，算力转型走深走实》， 2025.3.28 5.《运营商 capex 向算力倾斜，持续 看好推理侧和 IDC 机会》，2025.3.22 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 通信 2025 年 04 月 12 日 五大关键领域部署具体任务：包括健全低空管理体系、优化空域资源配置、提升运 行服务质效、夯实基础支撑能力、强化依法管空用空。数据显示，截至 2023 年， 我国低空经济 ...

2025年04月 11日 宏观点评 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号: S0120524070001 邮箱:zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 连桐杉 邮箱:liants@tebon.com.cn 相关研究 《如何理解春节镜像效应下的 CPI? -2025年2月通胀数据点评》 如何理解关税风暴下的 CPI? -2025年3月通胀数据点评 投资要点: 《如何理解春节效应下的 CPI? -- 2025年1月通胀数据点评》 《2024年通胀答卷 -- 2024年12月 通胀数据点评》 《CP| 缘何显著低于预期 ?-- 2024 年 11月通胀数据点评》 《国内需求叠加产业需求,价格有望 进一步趋稳 -- 2024年 10月通胀数 据点评》 《国内需求叠加产业需求,PP| 筑底 反弹可期 -- 2024 年 9 月通胀数据 点评》 《猪价推升 CPI, PPI 关注铜油钢— -2024年8月通胀数据点评》 > 如何理解 3月 CPI 数据的结构? 从环比来看. CPI 环比小于季节性主因天气转暖+油价下行。一是天气转暖,部分 鲜活食品大量上市,影响 CPI 环比下降约 0. ...

李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 通宇通讯(002792.SZ) 2025 年 04 月 11 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：通信/通信设备 当前价格(元)：12.85 证券分析师 市场表现 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M -34% -17% 0% 17% 34% 51% 69% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 通宇通讯 沪深300 | 绝对涨幅(%) | -16.99 | -15.57 | -7.35 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对涨幅(%) | -12.06 | -11.32 | -7.42 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《通宇通讯(002792.SZ)：5G-A 带来 传统业务新场景，卫星铸就第二增长 曲线》，2024.12.3 通宇通讯(002792.SZ)：全栈布 局初现雏形，参与通信试验卫星 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 事件：2025 年 4 月 1 日 12 时 00 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the commercialization of 5G-A and the development of satellite internet, with significant growth expected in revenue and net profit over the next few years [5][7] - The company has made strategic investments and partnerships to enhance its capabilities in satellite communication and is expected to continue expanding its presence in this sector [5][7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative decline compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute returns of -16.99% over the past month [4][3] - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks has been between 9.60 and 18.43 yuan [6] Financial Data and Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1,294 million yuan in 2023 to 1,968 million yuan by 2026, with corresponding net profits increasing from 81 million yuan to 267 million yuan [6][8] - The expected EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.16 yuan in 2023 to 0.51 yuan in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6][8] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 20.8% in 2023 to 28.2% in 2026, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [6][8] Industry Insights - The report highlights the supportive policy environment for 5G-A development, with major telecom operators actively promoting its rollout [7] - The company is strategically positioned within the telecommunications infrastructure sector, focusing on both traditional cellular networks and emerging satellite communication technologies [5][7]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 有色金属 2025 年 04 月 11 日 有色金属 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所、聚源数据 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 相关研究 1.《有色金属周报：对美关税反制， 战略金属价值显现，黄金再迎布局良 机》，2025.4.7 2. 《 黄 金 ： 万 里 长 征 方 起 步 》， 2025.4.1 3.《赤峰黄金：提产降本推动利润提 升》，2025.4.1 4.《藏格矿业（000408.SZ）：巨龙铜 业投资收益大幅增长，巨龙二期稳步 推进》，2025.3.31 5.《云铝股份：业绩水平提升，电解 铝产量创历史新高》，2025.3.3 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In March 2025, the CPI year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.1%, improving by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month’s -0.7%[6] - The CPI month-on-month decreased by -0.4%, a decline of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month’s -0.2%[6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of -0.1% in the previous month[5] Group 2: Food and Energy Impact - Food prices fell by 1.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.9 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Key food items like beef, fresh vegetables, and eggs saw price drops of 10.8%, 6.8%, and 1.6% respectively, contributing to the overall CPI decline[5] - International oil prices decreased, contributing to a month-on-month CPI decline of approximately 0.12 percentage points[3] Group 3: PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline was -2.5%, worsening from -2.2% in the previous month[26] - Month-on-month, the PPI decreased by -0.4%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[26] - The decline in PPI was influenced by falling prices in the oil and gas extraction industry, which dropped by 4.4%[10] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The 2025 CPI target growth rate is set at 2%, a reduction from the previous 3% target established since 2015[7] - The report suggests that the key to exiting the "low-price" environment is to boost core CPI, with real estate market stabilization being crucial[6] - The anticipated impact of tariff increases is expected to result in a 3% decline in export growth, correlating with a 0.20 percentage point drop in PPI and a 1.30 percentage point increase in CPI[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.35 billion to 2.50 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.38% to 75.93% [5][6] - The decline in coal prices has improved cost conditions, while the price spread of olefins continues to expand, leading to an increase in product profit margins [6] - The company is entering a phase of rapid capacity release, with significant year-on-year growth in olefin production and sales [6] - The establishment of a third base in Xinjiang is expected to open up long-term growth opportunities for the company [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Baofeng Energy's stock has shown a relative decline compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute declines of -13.42% over the past month [4] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a significant increase in revenue, with expected operating income of 53.07 billion yuan in 2025, up 60.9% year-on-year [8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 14.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 125.7% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 1.95 yuan in 2025 [8] Production and Capacity - The first series of the Inner Mongolia coal-to-olefins project has reached full production capacity, contributing to the increase in olefin output [6] - The company plans to complete the ramp-up of three production lines in the first half of 2025, which will further enhance production capacity [6] Strategic Developments - The Xinjiang coal-to-olefins project is progressing, with a planned capacity of 4 million tons per year, marking the company's third major production base [6] - Ongoing projects in Ningdong and Inner Mongolia are also in the planning stages, indicating robust long-term growth potential [6]