[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-----------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 宏观点评 | | | 2024 年 12 月 07 日 | | | —— | 非农回温，失业率提升降息概率 2024 | 月美国劳工数据点评 | | 证券分析师 | | | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 核心观点：11 月，美国新增非农就业数据回升，为 22.7 万人，预计中值为 22.0 万人。上一月，受东南部飓风以及波音公司罢工影响，美国 10 月就业增速放缓至 三年多来的最低水平，仅为 1.2 万人（在本月向上修正到 3.6 万人）。失业率方面， 本月，美国失业率小幅抬升 0.1pct 至 4.2%，预期中值为 4.1%。在消息面上，近 期，鲍威尔在参与公开访谈活动时表示，美国经济的强劲意味着，美联储可 ...

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves Overview - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,658.60 billion, an increase of $4.81 billion month-on-month[4] - The main reason for the increase in reserves is attributed to valuation effects from the decline in US Treasury yields, which contributed approximately $15 billion to the reserves[5] - The estimated impact of exchange rate changes resulted in a loss of about $5 billion due to the strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies[6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The strong US dollar has created pressure, but the RMB exchange rate has shown resilience, with a slight depreciation of 1.5% against the dollar in November[11] - It is anticipated that the People's Bank of China may implement a reserve requirement ratio cut before the Spring Festival to ensure liquidity stability[11] - The trade surplus is expected to expand to $99.5 billion in November, which may lead to additional demand for currency settlement[8] Group 3: Investment Trends - Foreign investment in RMB assets is projected to decrease, with an estimated net outflow of around $10 billion due to various market factors[9] - The average daily trading volume of northbound capital decreased to $32.896 billion in November, indicating reduced activity[9] - The overall impact of trading factors is estimated to have reduced foreign exchange reserves by approximately $4 billion[10]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业年度策略 汽车 2024 年 12 月 08 日 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------------------------| | 汽车 | 自主乘用车份额持续提升， | | Robotaxi+ 优于大市（维持） | 机器人产业趋势愈发 | | 证券分析师 | | | 邓健全 [Table_Summary] | 清晰 | 资格编号：S0120523100001 邮箱：dengjq＠tebon.com.cn 赵悦媛 资格编号：S0120523100002 邮箱：zhaoyy5＠tebon.com.cn 赵启政 资格编号：S0120523120002 邮箱：zhaoqz＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 秦梓月 邮箱：qinzy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《理想汽车车位到车位功能全量上 线，1-10 月汽车行业收入增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry, indicating expected returns above the market benchmark by over 10% [3]. Core Insights - OpenAI's recent 12-day event focuses on advancements in AI applications, particularly in model reasoning capabilities, which are expected to drive a surge in AI applications [4][8]. - The introduction of the "Full Blood o1" model shows significant performance improvements, with a nearly 30% enhancement in mathematical capabilities and a 27% increase in coding abilities compared to its predecessor [5]. - The launch of ChatGPT Pro at $200/month offers unlimited access to advanced models, enhancing performance in data science and programming tasks [6]. - The new Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT) technology aims to lower the barriers for developing customized AI models, potentially benefiting sectors like law, healthcare, and engineering [7]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - The report highlights the potential for AI applications to create a closed-loop business model, with domestic computing power expected to benefit from new external policy catalysts [3]. Model Performance - The "Full Blood o1" model demonstrates superior reasoning capabilities, with a 50% increase in inference speed and a 34% reduction in error rates [5]. - ChatGPT Pro's performance metrics in competitive environments show significant improvements over previous models, indicating enhanced reliability and accuracy [6]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI Agent applications, including Kingsoft Office, Wanjia Technology, and others, as well as those engaged in AI multimodal technologies [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The innovation in medical device payment environments is expected to improve, with significant potential in the commercial health insurance market, which could reach trillions of yuan [16] - Multiple innovative medical device products have shown excellent clinical data, indicating promising market opportunities [17] Summary by Sections 1. Promising Domestic Innovative Medical Devices for 2025 - The National Healthcare Security Administration is exploring commercial insurance development models, which may enhance the payment environment for innovative medical devices [16] - The number of products entering the innovative device approval process has increased, with a 35% growth in 2023 compared to 2022 [17] 2. Recent Market Performance of the Pharmaceutical Sector (Dec 2 - Dec 6, 2024) - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index rose by 1.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.2% during the week [31] - Year-to-date, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index has decreased by 7.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 23.6% [31] 3. Notable Stocks and Market Trends - The top five performing stocks in the past week include Qianjiang Biochemical (+50.00%), Lingkang Pharmaceutical (+31.91%), and Shengjitang (+19.01%) [41] - The overall trading volume for the pharmaceutical sector reached 393.92 billion yuan, accounting for 4.6% of the total A-share trading volume [40] 4. Valuation and Investment Strategy - As of December 6, 2024, the overall valuation of the Shenwan Pharmaceutical sector is 33.1, reflecting a 0.5 increase from the previous week [36] - The investment strategy focuses on four main lines: undervalued blue-chip stocks, companies with positive short-term changes, fundamentally solid enterprises, and those with high growth expectations for H2 2024 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [3] Core Views - The satellite internet industry is transitioning from thematic speculation to value investment, with supply-side capabilities and commercial loops beginning to take shape [4] - The satellite internet market in China is expected to reach a trillion-level market by 2031, with the market size exceeding 30 billion yuan in 2025 [4] - The satellite payload will account for 70% of the total satellite cost during the mass production phase, with key investment opportunities in antennas, T/R components, baseband chips, and commercial aerospace support [4] Investment Strategy Satellite Internet Development - Yuanxin Satellite's Qianfan Constellation has completed its third launch, with the interval between launches gradually shortening, indicating the establishment of regular and flight-like launch capabilities [4] - The Qianfan Constellation plans to deploy 648 satellites in the first phase for regional coverage, 1,296 satellites in the second phase for global coverage, and over 15,000 satellites in the third phase, with 10% of the total constellation to be deployed within two years of the first launch [4] - Yuanxin Satellite has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Brazil's TELEBRAS to provide satellite communication services, with commercial operations expected to begin in 2026 [4] Satellite Launch Infrastructure - China's commercial aerospace launch sites, such as the Wenchang Commercial Launch Site, are becoming more sophisticated, enabling local production and use of rockets and satellites [4] - The Wenchang launch site has reduced the rocket launch cycle from 20 days to 10 days, with the capability to meet the launch needs of at least 19 rocket models from over 10 companies [4] Value Investment in Satellite Internet - The satellite internet industry is entering a value investment phase, with a focus on high-value-density segments such as satellite payloads [4] - Key investment opportunities include antennas (e g, Aerospace Huanyu, Mengsheng Electronics), T/R components (e g, Guobo Electronics, Chengchang Technology), and baseband chips (e g, ZTE Microelectronics, Fudan Microelectronics) [4] Industry News Satellite Internet - The third batch of Qianfan Constellation satellites was successfully launched, increasing the number of in-orbit satellites to 54, enhancing continuous communication capabilities [4] - China's first commercial aerospace launch site, the Wenchang Commercial Launch Site, completed its first launch, with an annual launch capacity of 16 launches per launch pad [4] 5G Development - China has built over 4 1 million 5G base stations, with 5G networks extending to rural areas and integrating into 80 major economic sectors [6] - The 5G application scale-up development promotion meeting emphasized the need for systematic advancement, precise policies, and collaborative development to further enhance 5G application capabilities [6] Semiconductor Industry - NVIDIA's Blackwell AI chips are planned to be manufactured in the US, with TSMC preparing for production in 2025, reflecting the intensifying competition in the semiconductor industry between the US and China [6] Weekly Market Review - The communication sector (CITIC) rose by 1 97% this week, underperforming the broader market, with key opportunities in satellite internet and commercial aerospace [7] - Top gainers included Chunxing Precision (26 78%) and ST Zhongjia (15 23%), while top decliners included Ruisi Kangda (-18 28%) and Yitong Technology (-13 21%) [8] Focus List - Key companies to watch in the satellite internet and commercial aerospace sectors include China Telecom, Aerospace Huanyu, Mengsheng Electronics, and ZTE [9] - Long-term focus areas include operators (e g, China Mobile, China Telecom), communication infrastructure (e g, China Tower), and satellite internet-related companies (e g, Chuangyi Information, Mengsheng Electronics) [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained at "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to high-quality development and strategic marketing initiatives, including a focus on premium products and expanding market share both domestically and internationally [4][5] - The company aims to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 370.6 billion, 415.1 billion, and 469.0 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.1%, 12.0%, and 13.0% [5][10] - The report highlights the successful performance of various product lines, with the Qinghua series and others achieving full-year revenue targets by October 2023 [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The stock price of Shanxi Fenjiu is currently at 198.77 yuan, with a market performance comparison showing a decline of 23% against the CSI 300 index [2] Financial Data and Forecast - The projected operating income for 2024 is 37,060 million yuan, with a net profit forecast of 12,339 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 18.2% [10] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 75.5% for the next few years, with a slight increase to 76.0% by 2026 [10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on a "123" revival program, with specific phases aimed at consolidating achievements and enhancing production efficiency from 2025 to 2030 [4] - Shanxi Fenjiu plans to implement a controlled volume strategy in its home market while expanding its dealer network in other regions to enhance overall market presence [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the downstream space for non-ferrous metals is broad, with a continued positive outlook on gold, while copper and aluminum are expected to wait for favorable conditions to emerge [1] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic and International Policy Margins Widen, Driving Demand - China has implemented a series of macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating economic growth, including expanding domestic demand and supporting enterprises [29][31] - The U.S. has entered a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to increase dollar liquidity [32][33] 2. Downstream Technology and Processing to Benefit First - New productive forces are expected to lead to investment opportunities in emerging industries, particularly in low-altitude economy, AI, and humanoid robots [38] - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with a market size expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 8.84% [39][41] - AI is anticipated to experience rapid growth, with significant increases in computing power expected [60][65] 3. Precious Metals Likely to Rise - Gold prices are expected to trend upward, particularly as the Fed's rate-cutting cycle begins, supported by factors such as declining real interest rates and geopolitical instability [6] - Silver is projected to have stronger elasticity due to high gold-silver ratios and robust industrial demand [6] 4. Copper and Aluminum Supply Constraints, Demand Growth to Boost Prices - Copper and aluminum prices are expected to diverge, with aluminum prices likely to remain high due to supply constraints and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector [6] - The report notes that refined copper is in a state of supply-demand balance, with growth in demand driven by infrastructure projects and electric vehicles [6] 5. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in new productive forces include Baowu Magnesium, Platinum New Materials, and others [7] - Processing companies recommended include Ming Tai Aluminum and Huada New Materials [7] - Precious metals recommendations include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [7] - For copper and aluminum, recommended companies include Nanshan Aluminum and Zijin Mining [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the pharmaceutical glass industry [1] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical packaging materials in China have a significantly lower value proportion compared to developed countries, indicating substantial growth potential for the pharmaceutical glass industry [3][17] - The demand for pharmaceutical glass is expected to grow steadily due to rigid medical expenditures and an aging population, with a projected CAGR of 3.8% over the next five years [3][35] - The penetration rate of borosilicate glass in China is currently low, at about 7-8%, but is expected to increase significantly as the industry transitions from lower-grade glass types [3][34] Summary by Sections 01: Low Value Proportion of Pharmaceutical Packaging Materials - The production value of China's pharmaceutical packaging industry accounts for over 10% of the total packaging industry, but it still lags behind developed countries where it exceeds 30% [3][17] - In 2021, the market size of pharmaceutical glass reached 28.6 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13% from 2017 to 2021 [3][17] 02: Demand Side: Policies Promoting Borosilicate Glass Replacement - The consistency evaluation policy requires that the packaging materials for generic drugs meet or exceed the standards of reference formulations, which predominantly use borosilicate glass [3][42] - The national centralized procurement has led to an increase in the adoption of borosilicate packaging materials, with injection drugs making up 60% of the latest procurement batch [3][42] - The association review system increases the cost for downstream clients to switch suppliers, thereby enhancing industry concentration [3][42] 03: Supply Side: Competitive Landscape of Borosilicate Glass Molding Bottles - The market for borosilicate molded bottles is characterized by fewer A-class qualified manufacturers, leading to a more favorable competitive environment [3][79] - Major companies like Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass and Linuo Pharmaceutical are expanding their production capacities significantly, indicating a robust market demand [3][79] - The current production capacity for borosilicate molded bottles is projected to be insufficient to meet the anticipated market demand of 7.4 billion units by 2027 [3][79] 04: Stock Recommendations - The report continues to recommend Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass and highlights Linuo Pharmaceutical and Zhengchuan Co., Ltd. as key companies to watch in the industry [3][80]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leading player in high-end processors, leveraging its state-backed status and technological origins from AMD to achieve independent iteration [3] - The company's DCU (Deep Computing Unit) is expected to benefit from the generative AI boom, with potential for significant market expansion in commercial sectors such as the internet [3] - The CPU business is poised to capture a substantial share of the x86 commercial market, driven by strong ecosystem support and increasing demand in the server market [4] - The company's financial performance is expected to grow significantly, with projected revenue and net profit increases from 2024 to 2026 [5] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown significant volatility, with a 62.14% absolute increase over the past three months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2] CPU Business - The company's CPU products are compatible with the x86 instruction set, which dominates the server market with an 88% share in 2023 [4] - The x86 server market in China is expected to grow by 5.7% in 2024, reaching a market size of 306 billion yuan [4] - The company has completed product refinement in the domestic market and is expected to expand into the internet customer base, driving future growth [4] DCU Business - The DCU market is expected to benefit from the AI boom, with the Chinese accelerated server market projected to reach $12.4 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 5.7% from 2023 [3] - The company's DCU products are compatible with mainstream AI frameworks and have achieved leading domestic performance in large model applications [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 8.154 billion yuan in 2024 to 14.513 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 30.27% [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1.647 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.023 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 31.97% [5] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 177.0 in 2024 to 96.4 in 2026, reflecting strong growth prospects [5] Industry Trends - The AI server market in China is growing rapidly, with the internet sector accounting for nearly 60% of the accelerated server market in 2023 [56] - The government and operators are increasing investments in AI infrastructure, with operators expected to spend over 110 billion yuan on computing in 2024 [62] Competitive Advantages - The company's DCU products are compatible with the "CUDA-like" environment, providing a strong ecosystem advantage for AI applications [66] - The company's CPU products have strong compatibility with mainstream operating systems and software, making them suitable for a wide range of applications [80] Supply Chain and Inventory - The company has significantly increased its prepayments and inventory, indicating improved upstream supply and optimistic demand forecasts [46] - Inventory levels have risen sharply, with a 177.84% year-on-year increase in Q2 2024, reflecting strong demand and supply chain improvements [46]