Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The Chinese log market has shown an active trend of increasing supply and demand recently. With the gradual realization of peak - season demand and the low valuation of the futures market, it is recommended to position for the long - term on dips in the 11 - contract to play the peak - season market, while paying attention to macro - policy stimulus and actual demand verification [22][23]. Summary by Directory Log 2511 Contract Trend Review No specific trend review content is provided in the given text. Fundamental Analysis - Spot prices: The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter; the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs from New Zealand is 114 US dollars/JAS square, down 2 US dollars from last week [10][13]. - Shipment and inventory: In July 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipment volume was 1.955 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 13.19%, and the number of ships was 47, a month - on - month decrease of 5. As of August 30, China's log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 3000 cubic meters. The daily average log outbound volume of 13 ports was 64,200 cubic meters as of August 31, a monthly increase of 1100 cubic meters [15][18][20]. Trading Strategy Logic - Market situation: The log market has shown a situation of increasing supply and demand. The weekly pre - arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 ports reached 15 ships (509,000 cubic meters), a month - on - month surge of 48%. The national softwood log inventory decreased to 2.86 million cubic meters. The daily average outbound volume of 7 provinces and 13 ports increased to 65,600 cubic meters [22]. - Cost and price: The weakening of the US dollar against the RMB is beneficial, but the New Zealand dollar exchange rate and the bulk carrier freight index have risen simultaneously, and the overall cost pressure remains. Before and after the double festivals, the spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter and then remained stable. The supply side had a significant increase in the arrival volume last week, and the demand side was affected by the holiday, but most processing plants maintained production [22]. - Inventory: The national softwood log inventory decreased by 60,000 cubic meters last week, with radiata pine accounting for 40,000 cubic meters and North American timber 10,000 cubic meters. Jiangsu ports reduced inventory by 69,700 cubic meters, while Shandong slightly increased inventory by 8000 cubic meters [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling after the National Day holiday, with the market expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4][45][46]. - The official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, still below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased slightly, and different industries showed varying degrees of prosperity [10][27]. - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, domestic tourism and consumption increased, while the year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and the agricultural product wholesale price was relatively low year - on - year [33][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Market - **Treasury Bond Futures Performance**: After the National Day holiday, Treasury bond futures rose on Thursday and fell on Friday. The 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% for the week, the 10 - year rose 0.09%, the 5 - year was flat, and the 2 - year fell 0.02% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yield Curve**: Compared with September 30, the 2 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields rose slightly on October 10, while the 10 - year yield decreased slightly, and the 5 - year yield remained unchanged [7]. Manufacturing PMI - **Overall PMI**: In September, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Large enterprises continued to expand slightly, medium - sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline in small - enterprise sentiment narrowed [10]. - **Production and Demand**: The production index was 51.9%, indicating accelerated expansion. The new order index was 49.7%, showing improved demand. Some industries such as automobile manufacturing had rapid production and demand release, while others were below the critical point. The procurement volume index rose to 51.6% [13]. - **Price Index**: The raw material purchase price index was 53.2%, and the ex - factory price index was 48.2%. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined, which may suppress corporate profits. It is expected that the year - on - year decline of PPI in September will narrow [16]. - **Export and Inventory**: The new export order index was 47.8%, and the import index was 48.1%, both showing an increase. The raw material and finished - product inventory indexes increased. The cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits from January to August was 7.4% [19][22]. - **Business Expectation**: The employment index and the production and business activity expectation index increased slightly, indicating that enterprises' expectations for future prosperity improved slightly [25]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - **Overall Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, slightly lower than the previous value. The construction industry index was 49.3%, and the service industry index was 50.1% [27]. - **Construction Industry**: The new order index, employment index, and business activity expectation index all showed some changes, with the overall prosperity slightly rising but still weak [29]. - **Service Industry**: The new order index decreased, the employment index remained unchanged, and the business activity expectation index decreased slightly. The input price index and the sales price index both declined [31]. Other Economic Data - **Holiday Consumption**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists and total tourism spending increased. The daily average sales revenue of national consumption - related industries increased by 4.5% year - on - year, with service consumption growing faster [33]. - **Commercial Housing Transactions**: The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and it is expected that the decline in the fourth quarter may exceed that in the third quarter [36]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: In early October, the agricultural product wholesale price fluctuated narrowly, and it is expected that the year - on - year decline will narrow significantly in the next two months [39]. - **Funding Rate**: After the National Day holiday, the overnight funding rate fell to a low level. The central bank carried out a 1100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain market liquidity [43].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 白银现货价大幅超越期货价 2025年10月10日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 【全球经济展望】 10月9日，中国对稀土相关技术实施出口管制 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 全球经济展望 中国实施人工智能+行动。汇丰新兴市场调查，中国成股票投资首选市场，调查的100家机构合计管理4230亿 美元的新兴市场资产。国际资本积极加仓中国科技板块，认为在AI、机器人、生物科技等前沿领域，中国已具备 全球竞争力。Sam Altman透露，OpenAI未来几个月将有更多激进的基础设施押注。华为公布了昇腾芯片演进和目 标，算力"超节点+集群"已领先英伟达一年以上。OpenAI承诺从AMD购买价值6吉瓦的AMD芯片。三星和海力士加 入星际之门。阿里正积极推进3800亿元的AI基础设施建设，并计划追加更大的投入。 全球经济保持上行方向。 美国对各国征收对等关税后，中国商品竞争力增强，美国8月从中国进口额环比大增近40% 15,000.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Composite Index has exceeded 3900 points, reaching a 10 - year high, and the 3900 - point level forms strong support. International capital is actively increasing positions in China's technology sector. The liquidity impact is usually short - term, and stock index multi - order allocation should focus on the CSI 300 index. Consumption will be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [4][13][36] - The anti - involution policy has been intensified, which helps to get out of deflation. The U.S. is seeing a boom in consumption, and its "re - industrialization" is accelerating. The demand for computing power is soaring, and the semiconductor equipment ETF is highly promising [9][42][51] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Index - The Shanghai Composite Index has exceeded 3900 points, hitting a 10 - year high. Due to the liquidity shock of the reduction in the margin collateral conversion ratio of some stocks, the major indices in the two markets tumbled on Friday, but the 3900 - point level of the Shanghai Composite Index forms strong support [4][7][13] Policy News - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order, including measures such as investigating and evaluating industry average costs, promoting industry self - discipline, carrying out warning admonitions, strengthening supervision and law enforcement, and giving play to the role of credit supervision [9][10][11] - On October 9, China imposed export controls on relevant rare - earth technologies [13] Capital Inflow and Market Activity - After the holiday, the balance of margin trading reached a new high. In August, 2.56 million new A - share accounts were opened in Shanghai Stock Exchange. In the same month, non - banking financial institutions had a net increase of 1.18 trillion yuan in RMB deposits, indicating that funds are accelerating their transfer to the stock market. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 in August soared to 6.0%, indicating accelerated currency activation, which is beneficial for the upward movement of the stock market [15][18][21] Economic Data Indicators - In August, the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the CPI of consumer goods increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The anti - involution policy helps to get out of deflation [24] - In August, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.62 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 0.3%. The monthly value of infrastructure investment was 1.90 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 6.4%. The monthly value of real estate development investment completion decreased by 19.9% year - on - year, showing a continued downward trend [27][30][33] - The monthly value of social consumer goods retail sales in August was 3.96 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.4%. Consumption will be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [36] International Trade and Consumption - After the U.S. imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, the competitiveness of Chinese goods has increased. In August, the U.S. imports from China increased by nearly 40% month - on - month [39] - In August, the total retail and food sales in the U.S. increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The sales of U.S. wholesalers reached a record high of 711.3 billion dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The U.S. capital goods imports in August reached 91.9 billion dollars, still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 10.5%, indicating that the U.S. manufacturing industry is accelerating its return and the "re - industrialization" is speeding up [42][45][48] Investment Strategy - Stock index outlook: The liquidity shock is usually short - term. The CSI 300 index has reasonable valuation and limited callback space. Stock index allocation should mainly focus on CSI 300 index multi - orders [13][53] - Trading strategy: For stock index futures directional trading, the 3900 - point level of the Shanghai Composite Index forms strong support, and stock index futures multi - order allocation should focus on the CSI 300 index. For stock index option trading, take the opportunity to buy far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [13][56]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel sector in the black building materials is "oscillating" [1] Core View - After the holiday, the first trading day saw the screw and coil steel oscillating to build a bottom, with a gap - up opening at night and continued gains. The steel market has both supply and demand decreasing and continuous inventory accumulation. The market expectations are divided, and the price is expected to oscillate and rebound but with insufficient upward momentum [1] Summary by Directory Market Review - After the holiday, the first trading day saw the screw and coil steel oscillating to build a bottom, and they opened higher with a gap at night and continued to close up [1] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 863,310 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,760 tons or 0.4%. The total inventory was 1.60072 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,860 tons or 8.7%. The weekly consumption was 751,430 tons, among which the building materials consumption decreased by 32.8% week - on - week and the plate consumption decreased by 7.8% week - on - week [1] - New York Fed President Williams clearly stated that he supports further interest rate cuts in 2025 to cope with the possible sharp slowdown risk in the labor market [1] - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged in September and gave a moderately optimistic assessment of the euro - zone economy, implying a high threshold for further policy easing [1] Market Logic - On the first day after the holiday, the spot prices of screw and coil steel had both increases and decreases, and the trading volume was average. The supply and demand of steel both decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Currently, the market expectations are divided, with half expecting an increase and half expecting a decrease. Attention should be paid to the demand in October [1] Trading Strategy - It is expected that the screw and coil steel will oscillate and rebound, but the upward momentum is insufficient. Short - term long positions can be held continuously with stop - loss orders set. The expected resistance level for rebar is 3230, and the support level is 3000. The resistance level for hot - rolled coils is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [1]

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 20 加 | 【行情复盘】 昨日尿素主力合约 2601 价格下跌 57 元至 1 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 合同量为 | 402.1 | 万吨，较上周的 | 551.0 | 万吨减少 | 148.9 | 万吨，环比下降 | 27.02%。国内进口压 | 榨菜粕库存量为 | 1.7 | 万吨，较上周的 | 1.7 | 万吨持平，环比持平；合同量为 | 2.8 | 万吨，较上周 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 的 | 2.5 | 万吨增加 | 0.3 | 万吨，环比增加 | 12.00%。 | 7、东莞中粮开始预售明年一季度澳洲菜粕。同时市场不断传出枫叶、益海、澳加获批澳籽 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 基因证书，核实后消息 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View - After the holiday, the supply of bottle chips increased, downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly, and the market was cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the decline of crude oil prices at night, the price of bottle chips fluctuated weakly following the raw material end, and the reference range of the main contract was 5,650 - 5,850 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or sell short on rallies [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情复盘] - The price of the PR2512 contract of bottle chips rose by 2 yuan to 5,728 yuan/ton yesterday. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips fell by 10 yuan to 5,740 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips fell by 10 yuan to 5,820 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 3,563 lots to 50,500 lots, and short positions increased by 5,075 lots to 49,300 lots [1]. [重要资讯] - **Supply, cost, and profit**: The domestic polyester bottle chip output was 331,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,300 tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 72.5%, a week - on - week increase of 4.4%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5,351 yuan, an increase of 14.2 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 185 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton [1]. - **Export volume**: In August 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 520,700 tons, a decrease of 58,800 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.3414 million tons [1]. - **Crude oil prices**: After the cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel, the international oil prices fell. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 11 dropped by 1.04 dollars/barrel to 61.51 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.66%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 12 dropped by 1.03 dollars/barrel to 65.22 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55%. The INE crude oil futures contract 2511 dropped by 11.8 to 468.7 yuan/barrel, and dropped by 4.5 to 464.2 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Economic outlook**: The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 would be 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate in 2026 would slow down to 2.9%, the same as the forecast in June [1]. [市场逻辑] - After the holiday, the supply of bottle chips increased, downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly, and the market was cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the decline of crude oil prices at night, the price of bottle chips fluctuated weakly following the raw material end, and the reference range of the main contract was 5,650 - 5,850 yuan/ton [1]. [交易策略] - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or sell short on rallies [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log sector in the agriculture, forestry, and livestock industry is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic log spot market shows a regional upward trend, with the average price in Shandong and Jiangsu regions increasing by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to before the holiday. The log arrival volume last week is expected to increase by 550,500 cubic meters month - on - month, with a significant trend of concentrated arrivals. Although it is during the holiday, most processing plants maintain normal production, but there is regional differentiation in demand. The overall inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 60,000 cubic meters in the week of September 26th, and the market still maintains an inverted price pattern between the domestic and foreign markets. The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The log futures price corrected, and the closing price of the main 2511 contract was 828.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.41% [1] Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week. As of August 15th, the weekly arrival volume of domestic coniferous logs was 339,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 166,500 cubic meters from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from the previous week [1] Market Logic - The domestic log spot market shows a regional upward trend. The supply side indicates that the log arrival volume last week is expected to increase by 550,500 cubic meters month - on - month. In terms of demand, although it is during the holiday, most processing plants maintain normal production, but there is regional differentiation. The inventory data shows that the overall inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 60,000 cubic meters in the week of September 26th, and the market still maintains an inverted price pattern between the domestic and foreign markets [1] Trading Strategy - The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond sector is "oscillating" for TL, T, TF, and TS [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures showing strong performance. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.46%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.15%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02% [1] - The central bank conducted 612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with 2.0633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 351.3 billion yuan [1] - On Thursday, the overnight inter - bank funding rate declined compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.33% for the day, down from 1.39% the previous day; DR007 had a weighted average of 1.51%, up from 1.44% the previous day [1] - On Thursday, most of the closing yields of inter - bank bond cash bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year bond yield fell 0.77 basis points to 1.49%, the 5 - year fell 0.57 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 1.39 basis points to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.68 basis points to 2.26% [1] - During the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the cumulative cross - regional passenger flow reached 2.433 billion person - times, with a daily average of 304 million person - times, a 6.3% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in 2024, setting a new record [1] - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic trips reached 888 million person - times, an increase of 123 million person - times compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024; domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024 [1] - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements to implement export controls on related items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the sixth consecutive month. The new order index in September was 49.7%, still below the boom - bust line. The construction business activity index in September was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 50.1%, showing a mild expansion, while the new order index for the service industry declined [2] - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - oriented approach and balances domestic and international factors, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [2] - On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated narrowly after a rally, and closed with a small positive line. The trading volume was 2.67 trillion yuan, larger than the previous trading day's 2.2 trillion yuan. Bond futures closed higher across the board without being affected by the stock market, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [2] - For trading - type investments, use a band - trading strategy [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures showing strong performance. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.46%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.15%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02% [1] - The Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher on Thursday, fluctuated narrowly after a rally, and closed with a small positive line. The trading volume was 2.67 trillion yuan, larger than the previous trading day's 2.2 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - The central bank conducted 612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with 2.0633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 351.3 billion yuan [1] - The overnight inter - bank funding rate declined on Thursday compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.33% for the day, down from 1.39% the previous day; DR007 had a weighted average of 1.51%, up from 1.44% the previous day [1] - Most of the closing yields of inter - bank bond cash bonds declined on Thursday compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year bond yield fell 0.77 basis points to 1.49%, the 5 - year fell 0.57 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 1.39 basis points to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.68 basis points to 2.26% [1] - During the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the cumulative cross - regional passenger flow reached 2.433 billion person - times, with a daily average of 304 million person - times, a 6.3% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in 2024, setting a new record [1] - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic trips reached 888 million person - times, an increase of 123 million person - times compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024; domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024 [1] - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements to implement export controls on related items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] Market Logic - China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the sixth consecutive month. The new order index in September was 49.7%, still below the boom - bust line. The construction business activity index in September was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 50.1%, showing a mild expansion, while the new order index for the service industry declined [2] - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - oriented approach and balances domestic and international factors, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [2] Trading Strategy - For trading - type investments, use a band - trading strategy [2]