Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 11 元至 1779 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 10 元至 1740 元/吨。持 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The U.S. biodiesel policy is on the agenda, boosting global vegetable oil prices. Among the three major oils, palm oil and soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed oil has bottomed out and stabilized. Against the backdrop of U.S. interest rate cuts, with abundant global funds and strengthened inflation expectations, the financial attributes of vegetable oils will be further stimulated. It is advisable to maintain a long - term bullish mindset for soybean and palm oils and buy on dips, and pay attention to the rebound strength of rapeseed oil and hold short - term long positions. For double - meal products, the 05 contracts should be traded within a range with a bottom - oscillating mindset, and new short positions for the 09 contracts can be considered after a rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock - Three Oils 1. Market Review - On January 21, news that Indonesia revoked the licenses of 28 companies related to palm oil plantations led to concerns about palm oil supply. Palm oil led the rise in the vegetable oil sector, followed by soybean oil, while rapeseed oil was the weakest. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had different changes compared to the previous day, with some contracts increasing in price and positions, and some decreasing [1]. 2. Important Information - On January 21, NYMEX crude oil futures rose due to supply concerns. The more actively traded March crude oil futures contract rose $0.26 or 0.4%, settling at $60.62 per barrel. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The U.S. EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons, with final approval expected in Q1 2026. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9%. - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 were 435,882 tons, the same as the previous period. Exports to China decreased by 41,000 tons to 17,000 tons compared to the previous month. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, while the Non - PSO total allocation increased. The B50 road test started in December 2025 and is expected to last for 6 months. The mandatory addition of B50 is expected to start in the second half of 2026, later than the market's previous expectation. - As of the end of the 3rd week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1034 million tons, a weekly decrease of 38,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.10%. The inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had different changes [1][2]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the U.S. biodiesel policy has pushed up the price of U.S. soybean oil, which shows a volatile and upward - trending pattern. In Malaysia, the good export data of palm oil in the first 15 days of January and the revocation of 28 palm plantation licenses in Indonesia have boosted the price of Malaysian palm oil futures. Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. Although customs have tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, the auction of old imported soybeans has been fully sold, and oil mills have sufficient soybeans for crushing, with the Spring Festival stocking still ongoing. For palm oil, the negative data from Southeast Asia has been digested, and the market is more focused on the U.S. biodiesel policy expectations, along with improved export data, which has led to a rise in palm oil prices. For rapeseed oil, the strong performance of related international oils has limited the downside, and with the market's acceptance of the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, the downside space of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil is limited, and it mainly follows a wide - range oscillating pattern [2]. 4. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Hold existing long positions in soybean and palm oils, and slightly increase long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil. - Arbitrage trading: Exit the previously focused strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [2]. B. Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 1. Market Review - On January 21, the inventory of soybean meal decreased, and the prices of the two - meal futures stabilized. Technically, they entered the oversold zone and rebounded. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal had different changes compared to the previous day, with all contracts increasing in positions [2]. 2. Important Information - Since the Sino - U.S. trade truce agreement in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling the commitment in advance. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture has adjusted the global soybean outlook for the 2025/26 season, with increased production, increased crushing volume, decreased exports, and increased ending inventory. Brazil and the U.S. have increased production, while China's production has decreased. - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate. - As of January 16, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, faster than the previous week and the same period last year. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso state was 6.69%, also faster than the previous week and the same period in previous years. - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, with good growth conditions. The sowing progress of second - season soybeans was 71.9%. - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will be 105 million tons, a decrease from the previous forecast, and the crushing volume will reach 60 million tons, an increase from last year. - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a significant increase from the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons. - As of the end of the 3rd week of 2026, the inventory of imported soybeans in China decreased, the inventory of soybean meal decreased, and the inventory of imported rapeseed remained unchanged. The inventory and contract volume of imported crushed rapeseed meal remained at zero. - The auction of imported soybeans on January 13 was fully sold, with a high成交 rate and a certain成交 price. - As of January 21, the spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the basis prices also decreased. The crushing margins and soybean arrival costs are provided [2][3][4]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the slow progress of soybean harvesting in South America has led to a rise in U.S. soybean futures prices. The strong Brazilian soybean premium and active downstream pricing and pick - up have supported the spot market, but the loose supply - demand situation and high crushing margins have led foreign investors to increase short positions. Domestically, the fixed - price of oil mills has remained stable, and the near - month basis has slightly strengthened. It is expected that the spot price will remain firm before the Spring Festival. For rapeseed meal, the negative impact of import trade of Canadian rapeseed meal has been digested, and the price has rebounded technically. The spot price adjusts with the market [4]. 4. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: The 05 contracts of double - meal products should be traded within a range with a bottom - oscillating mindset, and new short positions for the 09 contracts can be considered after a rebound. Provide support and resistance levels for major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal. - Arbitrage trading: No trading opportunities are recommended currently [4].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1129.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.44%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1683.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.6%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力收于 1121.0.0，环比日盘 收盘下跌 0.71%，焦炭主力合约收于 1671.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.74% | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、财政部、税务总局、中国证监会发布《于延续实施创新企业境内发行存托凭证试点 | | | | | 阶段有关税收政策的公告》。其中提到，自 2026 年 1 月 1 日至 2027 年 12 月 31 日对个 | | | | | 人投资者转让创新 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 5786 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.21%。硅铁主力合约 | | | | | SF2603 收于 5556 元/吨，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.07%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、财政部、税务总局、中国证监会发布《于延续实施创新企业境内发行存托凭证试点 | | | | | 阶段有关税收政策的公告》。其中提到，自 2026 年 1 月 1 日至 2027 年 12 月 31 日对个 | | | | | 人投资者转让创新企业 CDR 取得的差价所得，暂免征收个人所得税。 | | | | | 2、针对"十五五"时期如何推 ...

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 昨日 | SR605 | 合约收盘价 | 5144 | 元/吨，日跌幅 | 0.75%，夜盘收 | 5138 | 元/吨；SR609 | 合约 | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 5161 | 元/吨，日跌幅 | 0.75%，夜盘收 | 5158 | 元/吨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 | 5238 | 元/吨，下跌 | 45 | 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间 | 为 | 5270~5360 | 元/吨，整体下调 | 10~20 | 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 | 5120~ | 5160 | 元/吨， | | | 下调 | 20~30 | 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 | 5700~5820 | ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Bullish on iron ore in the black building materials sector [3] Group 2 - Core view: The iron ore market has certain positive factors, and short - term long positions can be attempted with stop - loss set [3] Group 3 1. Market Review - Iron ore futures closed higher in the night session on Tuesday [3] 2. Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and address low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [3] - Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore production in the fourth quarter was 89.7 million tons, a 6.66% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 3.70% increase year - on - year. The shipment volume was 91.3 million tons, an 8.30% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 6.53% increase year - on - year [3] - From January 12th to January 18th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.1736 billion tons, a decrease of 816,000 tons from the previous period, slightly lower than the average level in the fourth quarter [3] 3. Market Logic - Globally, iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased. Domestic mine production has increased, and port iron ore inventories continue to accumulate. The daily average hot metal output is 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from last week but an increase of 35,300 tons compared to the previous year [3] 4. Trading Strategy - Try short - term long positions and set stop - losses. The support level is lowered to 780, and the resistance level is 844 [3]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 22 日星期四 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.22%，收于228 | | | | | 2元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，昨日深加工企业报价涨跌互现。东北地区企业收 | | | | | 购价2181元/吨，较前一日涨3元/吨；华北地区收购均价2274元/吨，较前一日跌6 | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日南北港口价格稳定。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2280-2290元/吨，较前一日持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2420元/吨，较前一日持平 | | | | 。 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [4] - The return of the United States to the Monroe Doctrine and its global contraction will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US Treasuries, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Global Economic News - Japan's fiscal crisis and Trump's actions have led to a "triple kill" in the US financial market, with some suggesting Europe may be creating market turmoil to pressure Trump [1] - Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, warns that Trump's radical policies may trigger a global capital war, which could lead to inflation or currency depreciation and increase foreign investors' concerns [1] - Danish pension fund AkademikerPension plans to sell US Treasuries by the end of the month due to credit risks from Trump's policies, holding about $100 million in US Treasuries at the end of 2025 [1] - The world's largest AI open - source community Hugging Face states that DeepSeek R - 1 has broken barriers, leading to China's AI reshaping the global landscape with more model downloads than the US [1] - Tesla will restart its supercomputer project Dojo 3, marking a major shift in its chip strategy towards "space artificial intelligence computing" [1] - Japan's government bond market has crashed, forcing the Bank of Japan to consider restarting unlimited bond - buying, which may lead to the yen breaking the 160 exchange - rate line [1] - Foreign investors account for about 65% of Japan's monthly government bond cash trading volume, and more Japanese pension funds may return to Japan, impacting the US Treasury market [1] - Poland's central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its reserves to 700 tons and aiming to be among the top 10 countries in gold reserves [1] Global Economic Logic - The US's actions such as seizing control of Venezuela's oil and threatening to buy Greenland have brought great uncertainty to the global political and economic order, and it has imposed punitive tariffs on 8 European countries, with European countries planning counter - tariffs [2] - A US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and Nomura predicts that Fed - related uncertainties will peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US has released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending pattern, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families are cutting back [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.18% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years to meet AI service demand [2] - TSMC estimates its 2026 capital expenditure to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a 27% - 37% increase year - on - year, signaling the continued boom in AI and restoring investors' confidence in AI demand [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1129.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.44%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1683.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.6%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力收于 1121.0.0，环比日盘 收盘下跌 0.71%，焦炭主力合约收于 1671.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.74% | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、财政部、税务总局、中国证监会发布《于延续实施创新企业境内发行存托凭证试点 | | | | | 阶段有关税收政策的公告》。其中提到，自 2026 年 1 月 1 日至 2027 年 12 月 31 日对个 | | | | | 人投资者转让创新企业 CDR 取得的差价所得，暂免征收 ...

Morning session notice | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、工信部：支持地方因地制宜建设未来产业，加大政府投资基金投资力度。 | | | | | 2、住建部部长：支持房企合理的融资需求，支持居民刚性和改善性住房需求。 | | | | | 3、我国充电基础设施数量突破 2000 万大关。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 4、1 月 22 日，河北省邢台市、保定市、沧州市、衡水市、邯郸市、山东省德州市 | | | | | 启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 临近年底，钢厂冬储政策陆续发布。下游冬储意愿一般，多持谨慎心态，冬储量较 | | | | | 去年可能下降。当前市场冬储心理价位集中在 3000-3100 元/吨，此价格相对接近 | | | | | 当前现货价格水平。基本面，当前钢材产量、库存均下降，其中螺纹产量和库存微 | | | | | 降，热卷产量增加， ...